Robert Young - YFS Private Client Market & Economy Audio-Email

Friends,Except for a few stragglers, Earning Season is over.Since this is the acid test for the impact of President Trumps’ use of tariffs as the dice in his Global “Not It” game, let’s take a look, shall we?Robert

Friends,The “Trade Agreement” with the United KingdomIs this P.T. Barnum Press Conference Soundbite Showmanship or Reality?Let’s look at facts…  Cynically Optimistic,Robert

Friends,I assume we all know better than to use postings on an unregulated social media platform as the gospel truth. I'm confident that the vacuous pronouncements delivered with gusto are taken as bombastic theater - I am proud of y’all for your skepticism when you hear the fanciful, fabricated, “Trumped-Up” statements regarding “soon to be” signed tariff and trade agreements. But most of all, tears of joy swell in my eyes brought on by the elation and delight I feel knowing that you we're all Gold Star recipients in your civics classes and chuckle when the President triggers havoc with Markets with inaccurate statements regarding his ability to terminate the head of a non-government agency.Request his resignation?  YesTerminate? NopeRobert

Friends,For your consideration, I present facts related to the Market's miraculous, surprise climb on 9 April.Was this truly for the benefit of America(ans) or orchestrated for the benefit of a select few?Immediately after his post regarding the tariff suspension, in his following post, Prersident Trump proclaims, "it's a great time to buy the DJ" (Dow Jones Index)Was this a signal?Regardless, I present my thoughts on the four players involved in the Market explosion and the person whom I believe is the "Wizard behind the curtain"Hint - it ain't President Trumpi hope I'm wrong :(Robert

Friends,Yesterday's "surprise" announcement by President Trump jacked Markets up by 9%+ But, was it for the benefit of America(ans) or a calculated "pump & dump" scheme orchestrated to reward those who breathe in "rarefied air"?That's a cocktail party philosophical question that means nothing to me...i'm interested in facts - and, today's 4+% clawback of the Market's 9% "gain" (making a net gain of 5% on yesterdays' news) appears to support the facts and data presented in today's audio-email.In a follow up (addendum) to this audio-email, I explore the empirical evidence supporting the case for an orchestrated "surprise" Robert

Friends,At 3:00 AM when I booted up the system and looked at the futures market, seeing that it was up 800 points was mildly amusing to me.By the opening bell, the market was up 1400+ points (around 3.5%).This elicited an audible guffaw.Seeing the market close <320 points / – 84%> Joined by the S&P 500's return of -1.5% and the Nasdaq’s return of -2.15%, makes me smile.Anyone making investment or market decisions/assessments based on financial news' sound bites…As the saying goes, “It ain’t over till it's over”.Based on the indicators I outline in this audio, we are close to deploying the cash in your account to make money from this bloodbath, but we're not quite there yet.Robert

Friends,After fielding several regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI - What is it?, How is it controlled? I swear my toaster is eyeballing me - should I be afraid?) I wondered if some may have questions but simply haven't reached out to ask. Maybe this very primitive, elementary overview of the systems and models identified as AI.Robert

Friends,It's easy to get caught up in the drama of today's Market reaction triggered by President Trump's outline of the trade and tariff policy scheduled to deploy over the next several days.I hope this audio e-mail puts his program and objective in context as a lucid and realistic alternative to the Market’s over-reaction (In my opinion) Regardless, I am excited for the chaos and opportunities exposed during this knowing full well that we have deep pockets of cash ready to deploy in order for you to benefit from the Market's tantrum. Robert  

Friends,Happy Liberation Day! 😊 If you are worried or surprised by the recent repricing of the stock market (Market drop) or believe that the tariffs enacted today (just another set invoked and revised since February) are triggers for the Market decline which has taken the value down approximately10% from the peak achieved in late 2024 – then I have failed you :(Months ago, based on new data and facts, I 86’d my belief that recession was imminent and wouldresult in a Market revaluation - and began focusing on the support systems (aka Consumer spending & Corporate revenue) necessary to maintain the ballooning value of the stock market. Although it's been six weeks since I’ve reached out, I have continued to monitor the data and feel that it is time to share an update.Tariffs and Recession are making headlines.Done so, I believe, because they make an easy link to one individual or administration and simplifies for people the Principal of Causation - the basic relationship between,” cause and effect”. Today, beginning with the math proving the unhinged valuation of the stock market, followed by data published by the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and debt delinquencies (credit card, auto loans & home loans), with a sprinkling of inflation's true impact on basic pleasures (dining out) - while folding in the actions of corporations (giddily outlined in press releases during the recent earning season) who have decided to drain every drop of blood from there consumer base before the consumers’ inescapable financial death. I have distilled this down to you in the most prosaic terms, “this market will correct and adjust the valuation when consumers/people run out of money.” This lengthy audio provides updated data and facts reminding you of this – it's just math, repricing of the market was inevitable regardless Fortunately, we have stored a great deal of ammunition in your account and will engage when the time is right for you to benefit.Robert

Friends,We are riding the AI fandom wave, but unlike others who are buying ""Cause It's the Future, Man...", we have done our research and know exactly why we're in the game and are invested in the Sector/Industry reaping quantifiable profits.Robert

Friends,Yes, another client inspired audio-email. Ever wonder why I don't suggest initiating an automatic dividend re-investment program? Maybe you have, maybe you haven't... Like many things, it looks good on paper...Robert

Friends,Recently, conversations with clients included the topic of missed opportunities & the halcyon days of fast sales and big profits made from over-priced homes triggered the question, "Is there something in the data we monitor that I could find which might fan the flame of hope for these clients?"Several days (and a few sleepless nights), using data from the Federal Reserve Banks that track this kind of stuff, sprinkled with inflationary stardust, provided an interesting possibility which I shared with them.This audio-email was inspired by the thought that others may have the same question and be interested in the implications shown by this factual historical data.TO BE CLEAR - This is a Hypothesis based on Conjecture! The real-estate market is not in my wheelhouse and I'm not Tiresias...Robert

Friends,On 19 Dec, during the post-FOMC news conference, Chairman Powell's casual mention of the committee's concern regarding increasing inflationary pressures (aka - rising inflation = rising cost of goods & services) triggered a Market liquidation. We'll look at the Fed's own data to investigate.Keep in mind, when the Consumer runs out of Cash, Markets will re-price as Corporate revenue drops.Robert 

Friends,Good Morning.Monday’s (2 Dec) audio-email started with a broad look at the Market & the Economy and closed with updates on our investments. My thoughts on the Market & Economy included coverage of inflation data. Verbally pictorializing the historical path of inflation data since 2020 prompted responses from several clients for clarification and examples/validation. I love these requests - it provides an opportunity to spotlight supporting facts. As an addendum to Monday's presentation, today's audio presents data published by the Federal Reserve which provides detail and clarity to Monday's information portrait I painted. Since sleep is a frivolous activity, I recorded this around 2am. As I was wrapping up (what was a very short, fact packed presentation), misfiring synapses spawned an additional chapter covering politics, the economy, the stock market, and thoughts on willful ignorance.  Hope you find this educational and entertaining.Robert

Friends,Not to sound like a fatalist but it's hard to buy the narrative that, "The Economy is Swell & The American Consumer is Flush with Cash and doing just fine!" - especially when Economic data portends an opposite landscape.I'll share factual data released by both the Federal Government & American Industry - please decide for yourself if we're really in the land of Rainbows & Unicorns that the Financial Headlines & Federal Reserve claim.I'll close with an update on GrowGeneration (Cannabis re-scheduling update) and cover the newest additions to our investment family.Robert

Friends,Regardless of the enthusiasm each new day's headlines bring, my cautious optimism is tempered by the reality of economic news which continues to flash cautionary signals. In fact, two of the most trusted metrics for determining The Market’s under valuation, neutral valuation, or overvaluation (the Schiller P/E & Buffet Indicator) both show a Market that cannot be supported by economic facts.I review both in today's update.Despite this, there are two undervalued sectors our calculations have identified.These are identified in today's update and I'm initiating an opening position for both in all accounts.Robert

Friends,This update is "Company / Investment Adjacent". We're not going to cover any updates regarding the Company, rather, we're diving into a specific event which has the potential to stoke rapaciousness in this sector (more importantly - in our little investment).We'll see...Robert

Friends,Let's explore what our little telecommunication investment is up to these days....Robert

Friends,Some of you may have received a notice of a class action lawsuit against APPLE and have been invited to join the party!Unfortunately, we don't qualify :(In this audio-email, I explain why...Robert

Friends,I know what you're thinking, “poor Robin (my Family name) - what happened to him as a child to create such a nihilist - so full of negative thoughts…”Let me assure you, my childhood Hug Quota was exceeded 😊Even experiences in combat couldn't shade my inner happiness and outlook which kept me a walking Pollyanna. It's taken years of exposure to the skullduggery which permeates the investment & economic reporting & data we rely on to manifest my cynicism.Only the education of mentors, who taught me how to ignore headlines and read the facts, has armored me.I hope to do for you by sharing what I've learned,I realize, like this one, some of these audio emails are lengthy.My aim is to present an Executive Summary with the most salient points, however when you are covering four or five mission critical targets, it's a little tough to do within a 5-minute window.  I apologize for the lengthiness of this one. I believe it's the longest you've ever had to endure.I hope you find it beneficial.  Robert

Friends,The Stock Market IS NOT the Economy - let's look at the facts as the CPI report is released today.Robert

Friends,It’s time for the final act of the story/update.Robert

Friends,The part of this I love the most is when our Leaders tell us “how great a job THEY are doing & how much WE are benefiting by their work”!You can’t make this stuff up ☹Robert

Friends,I no longer identify with “Recession”.I identify as “Market Valuation Adjustment”.  Thank you,Robert

Friends,Last year, while being by the Senate Banking Committee, I believe Chairman Powell gave justification for cutting rates later this year and it won't be because the 2% inflation rate has been reached - itwill be to save the Banking Sector from collapse.Decide for yourself as I cover the facts.We'll see,Robert 

Friends,Don't Forget Our Investment Golden Rule:THE MARKET IS NOT the ECONOMY!   Let’s review Current Economic Data (i.e. Economic Facts) Robert

Friends,This one waste’s “0” (zero) time on Grow Generation but gives you a MASTER CLASS on THE Federal Regulations which will save our bacon and maybe even toss us a shekel or two in profit$$$  This’ll definitely be worth your time.EnjoyRobert

Friends,Let’s look at Walgreens now and see what’s happening with our investment.Robert

Friends,I know… I know… It’s been too long – but, as an explanation & not an excuse, there hasn’t been a significant reason to send an update.Until now…  Let’s start with an update on VERIZON and go from there.LOL – Be careful what you wish for 😊  Enjoy,Robert

Friends,The fervor over any tech company with even a passing acquaintance with AI continues to drive this market. It is fueled with the untenable belief that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts as early as March.I guess it’s trueA man convinced against his will is of the same opinion stillLet’s hang on, and observe the madness :)Robert

Thursday the 31st is an emergency shareholder meeting, where we will be voting on the potential sale of our shares of consolidated communication to a private equity firm who wants to take the company private

Friends,This audio shares the in-house formula we have developed to gauge the current value of the S&P 500.The Buffett Indicator looks at the value of the Total Stock Market but we laser in on the S&P 500.According to the formula, let's see if it's over or undervalued?Robert

Friends,Today, we are going to have a class on The (Warren) Buffet Indicator. A very simple approach he uses to determine whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. If its overvalued and we wander down the Dark Alley of Recession (as outlined in the previous audio) then we want to be aware of just how much the stock market could decline in value.Of course, I could be wrong about a pending recession.But I could be right.We’ll see. Robert

Friends,The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released in a bit.Within the Federal Government, two agencies monitor inflationary trends and release their findings monthly. We'll look at their similarities and differences. In your heart, you'll hope that the monetary policies affecting ALL of us financially, are created for our benefit by Chairman Powell and his Team at the Federal Reserve using the one which provides the truest clarity.Robert

Friends,On 3 MAY, I presented the justification for investing in the Transportation Index.While I still believe the argument has merit, internal repositioning of the index negated the rationalization for the decision.Quietly, Airlines staged a Leadership Coup.When I saw DELTA Airlines’ CEO gloating over profits as images of stranded customers and cancelled flights were juxtaposed with his visage, I felt the Index’s rise above our initial investment was temporary and liquidated our position.Since our Victory on 30 June, the index has headed south… Sometimes, the Win isn’t from a position reaching its true Value but about Risk Mitigation and Recovering our Investment – Without Loss!Robert

Friends,Today, we review the 2 May FOMC meeting minutes released by Team Powell to see if there is any support for our Recession Hypothesis. Underneath the photo, you’ll find a link to a CNBC story on the “Wealth Effect” and further down, data on increasing credit card debt & delinquencies. Semper Fi,Robert

Friends,Let's turn our "Spotlight" on Grow Generation - the "Home Depot" for Cannabis Farmers.Robert

Friends,Let’s turn our “Spotlight” on our investment in all things Transportation with our S&P 500 Transportation Index.Robert

Friends,Let's look at Smith & Wesson.Robert

Friends,Throwing a Spotlight on VERIZONRobert

Friends,Let’s throw a Spotlight on WALGREENSRobert

Friends,Let’s look at our investment in Consolidated Communications.Robert

Friends, Let’s look at the education riches April rained down on us. We’ll peak inside the mind of Chairman Powell and his merry Band of Governors by reading his diary (March’s FOMC meeting minutes), contemplate things we’ve learned from Corporate CEO’s & Presidents during the current earning season and finish up with a quick class on Money Supply (Life when you have a pocketful of Cash) Robert

Friends,At 2pm, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell, will announce the Committee's decision on a rate hike increase.Fingers crossed that his words will trigger a positive Market rally. We shall see...Robert

Friends,Today, I want to share a class on Bonds, Bank Failures, Bank Bailouts and how events over the last week could trigger a Market rally!Robert

Friends,I love y'all - Why? Because seeing the Market lose 1 1/2% doesn't upset you.If anything, from your texts and emails today, you are wondering why there aren't more days like today! Today's audio is a reminder of the facts we use to govern any Tactical adjustments to our investment Strategy, where we are currently and the impact the next Treasury Aution will have on the Cash we've been stockpiling in your account.Beginning next week, it's time to strap one of our investments to the interrogation chair, focus the "Spotlight" on it, examine basis for making the investment and challenge our process to determine if it should stay in our portfolio.We will begin with Consolidated Communications.Robert

Friends,Just updating you on the recession signals we're seeing plus a new ingredient that's been added to the mix during earning season - the Year Over Year decline in corporate revenues and the warnings given by analysts and corporate management that there will be a severe revenue challenge by the 4th Quarter.More recession indicators continue to activate.Fine with us As far as we're concerned, it can't happen soon enough.You're Protected & We're Ready For War,Robert