PODCAST · business
Rosenberg Round-Up
by Rosenberg Research
Providing investors with key macro and market developments, insightful data analysis, and actionable ideas that are top of mind for the Rosenberg Research team in the the week ahead.
Episodes
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Brother, Can You Spare a Job?
On this week’s episode of the Rosenberg Round-Up, we discuss what’s behind the recent rebound in equities and the changing cross-asset picture, as well as what the 28% downward revision in employment growth is telling us. We also shed light on what lingering risks in the Commercial Real Estate...
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Powell to Set the Rate-Cutting Table at Jackson Hole
The September FOMC meeting is about how much to cut rates | A look at the Harris vs. Trump polls and what it means for markets | The case for gold is stronger than ever Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day…
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“The Real Threat Is an Own Goal Not a Black Swan” | Brett House
In our latest special interview episode, we welcome seasoned market economist and current Columbia Business School professor Brett House to discuss the Yen carry trade reversal sending shockwaves through markets, all things Powell and the Fed with a special look at Jackson Hole, Trump vs. Harris...
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Navigating the Turbulence
Taking stock after a volatile week | Macro data will drive markets | Going defensive Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here:...
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Land of the Rising Yen
The evolving global rate picture | Earnings to drive market in macro-lite week ahead | How to invest in the land of the rising Yen Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here:...
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The Mag 7 Run Out of Ammo
The bull run has come to a grinding halt as large-cap tech retreats from overstretched valuations. But the concerning macro narrative driving the rest of the market deserves more attention. Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading:...
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London Calling: The Case for a Post-Election Re-Rating in U.K. Assets
Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading:...
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Concerning Earnings: What to Look for in Q2 Reports
Powell signaled the need for more “confidence” in his congressional testimony – did a light inflation print deliver it? We also touch on political and economic developments in Europe, and shine our spotlight on the upcoming earnings season. Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to...
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“Not a Bull Market, a Bifurcated Market” | David Rosenberg
In our latest special interview episode, we welcome back our Founder and President, David Rosenberg, to get his views on a perplexing stock market, what we can learn from the past, and how to think about the U.S. election – among much else. Is this even a bull market? (0:30) David's Philosophy on...
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Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election
We reflect on a week dominated by global politics, and shine our spotlight on what the shifting probabilities around the U.S. election mean for markets Visit our sponsor Kalshi and get a $20 credit: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here:...
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What a Mean-Reverting Savings Rate Would Mean for the Economy
This week we cover a mixed bag in data, check in on Canadian inflation, and shine our spotlight on the U.S. savings rate and its impact on consumption. The Week in Review (1:05) — Markets took a breather as the economic data sent mixed signals The Week Ahead (4:48) — All eyes on nonfarm payrolls...
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Margin Revolution – How U.S. Inflation Will Fall to 2%
This week we cover the extreme optimism in equity markets against a backdrop of softening economic data. We shine our spotlight on how declining pricing power and margin compression are bringing down inflation in the U.S. The Week in Review (1:03) — The bulls charge; retail sales slump; Bank of...
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Fed Does Its Best to Sound Hawkish — It Will Backfire
This week we cover the Fed’s puzzling projections, falling inflation, and the European elections. We shine our spotlight on the ups and downs of a consumer recession. The Week in Review (1:15) — Did the Fed even look at the soft inflation report that dropped during its meeting? The Week Ahead...
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The Cutting Cycle Commences
This week we cover the onset of the global cutting cycle, as the BoC and the ECB took important first steps this week. Then we shine our spotlight beyond the S&P 500, arguing that small is beautiful. The Week in Review (0:40) — The BoC and the ECB ease and the U.S. data softens The Week Ahead...
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Data Revisions, Rate Decisions, Growth Previsions
This week we highlight the pile-up of negative data revisions that are changing the cyclical picture, we touch on the outlook for the Fed as its peers prepare to cut, and we shine our spotlight on new long-term growth outlook estimates for the world’s largest economies. The Week in Review (1:45)…
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The Macro View From Europe | Gerhard Massenbauer
In our latest occasional interview episode, we welcome Gerhard Massenbauer, chief analyst at Treasury Scout, to the Rosenberg Roundup. Gerhardt is an incisive commentator with over 25 years of experience in global and European FX and rates who is never afraid to make a bold call. We cover the...
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Setting the Record Straight on Household Balance Sheets
This week, we cover the latest signal from earnings, and we go toe-to-toe with the KC Fed on household balance sheets The Week in Review (0:36) — AI-related stocks soar on strong earnings while consumers tighten their belts The Week Ahead (4:11) — The Beige Book will bring the latest signal from...
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Not Your Father’s (or Grandfather’s) Emerging Markets
This week, we cover the trifecta of soft data that’s sent stocks to new highs. Our spotlight shines on Emerging Market stocks, and what the (eventual) fall in global interest rates will mean for them. The Week in Review (1:21) — Why softening U.S. data has pushed the S&P 500 to new highs The...
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It’s Not a Drag Getting Old: An Emerging Investment Theme
This week, what a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls meant for markets, and how to position for the opportunity in America’s aging capital stock. The Week in Review (1:06) — A rare weak employment report and the Swedish Riksbank cuts rates The Week Ahead (7:19) — CPI and retail sales headline a big…
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Laboring Over the Job Market Misconceptions
This week, we look back on Powell’s pushback, shine our spotlight on the labor market data, and drop by Canada to check in on growth prospects. The Week in Review (1:30) — Powell holds the line on rates guidance, and what earnings reports are telling us about the U.S. consumer The Week Ahead…
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The Downside GDP Surprise was Less Than Surprising
This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying. The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets The Week…
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How Investors Should Prepare For the Day of Fiscal Reckoning | David Hay
We welcome author, investor, activist, thinker, and co-CIO of advisory firm Evergreen Gavekal, David "The Haymaker" Hay onto the Rosenberg Round-Up. Our interview with Dave marks the inaugural episode of a series of standalone interviews that will run alongside the weekly Roundup on a (roughly)...
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Are Bulls Finally Seeing Red?
This week, our spotlight is on our recent report on the wealth effects and its role as the driving force behind spending. The Week in Review (1:19) — Markets at an inflection point as Fed cuts get pushed back The Spotlight (8:22) — Wealth effects have put the wind in the U.S. consumer’s sails...
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Deconstructing “Weird Wednesday”
This week we try to extract some meaning from a weird and wacky Wednesday, when a slightly warmer-than-expected CPI number sent markets haywire. Later, we shine our spotlight on the implications of the gold run-up for mining stocks and silver prices. The Week in Review (1:19) — Weird Wednesday…
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Going for Gold
This week, our spotlight is on our recent gold special report, along with a touch on some other commodities. The Week in Review (2:08) — A spring thaw in the U.S. data (but can it last?) The Week Ahead (5:17) — All eyes on the BoC and ECB for a dovish tilt, and the U.S. CPI key for what the Fed...
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Should We Still Be Worried About Regional Banks?
This week, we look back at some housing data and why there has been a pivot in that space. Our spotlight focuses on regional banks and why caution is warranted. The Week in Review (3:10) — Is housing becoming a buyer's market? The Spotlight (6:06) — What do regional banks and rocket ships have in...
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Fighting The Fiscal Boogeyman
This week, we dissect the Fed’s pleasingly boring meeting amid a poor run of data. Our spotlight is on the worrying fiscal situation in the U.S., and when to start panicking. And Canada Corner is back in style. The Week in Review (2:52) — Powell Plays the Central Banker The Week Ahead (6:29) —…
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The Real, the Nominal, and the Fed
This week, we dissect recent inflation data and ask what it means for next week’s Fed meeting. Our spotlight focuses on Korea and its Japan-esque potential. The Week in Review (1:05) — How this week’s data shifted the narrative The Week Ahead (7:38) — All eyes on the Fed The Spotlight (9:57) —…
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Bitcoin Glitters, but is it Gold?
This week, we get deep on the big market themes, discussing the rally in gold and Bitcoin, and pondering “where to?” for equities? Our spotlight interview focuses on why we’re sticking to our bullish long-term call on Japan. The Week in Review (0:43) — Assessing the markets from, bullion to...
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The “Choose Your Own Adventure” Economy
This week, we discuss the scattered early signals on Q1 activity. Our Spotlight is on how “exceptional” the U.S. growth acceleration was in a global context. The Week in Review (1:55) — The “choose your own adventure” economy The Spotlight (6:23) — The new U.S. (economic) exceptionalism Canada...
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The Magnificent Seven Are the New Nifty Fifty
This week we discuss the Fed Minutes along with the LEI. Our spotlight is on the Nifty Fifty and how history tends to rhyme. The Week in Review (1:18) — Spending a ‘minute’ on the Fed and a look at the LEI The Week Ahead (5:27) — All eyes on consumer spending and consumer inflation data The...
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David Rosenberg on Why We’re Sticking to Our Guns
This week we sit down with Dave Rosenberg to talk about the hot start to the year for equity markets and the U.S. economy as a whole. Dave outlines why we don’t see enough in the early data to drop our 2024 recession call. Introduction (0:20) The Week in Review (0:41) — Reflecting on a...
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U.S. Consumers Have a Strict Debt Only Diet
This week, we take a look into U.S. household debt and credit, finding that consumers are looking far from “resilient.” We also host Marius Jongstra, head of market strategy at Rosenberg Research, for his latest views on the major asset classes. Introduction (0:20) The Week in Review (0:44) —...
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“What's Priced In” to U.S. stocks
This is the Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week’s episode, we host Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, Senior Market Strategist at Rosenberg Research, for a look at her new report on the US equity market titled “What’s Priced In.” Introduction (0:20)…
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David Rosenberg on the 2024 Outlook
Welcome to the inaugural episode of Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week's episode, we host David Rosenberg for his outlook on the year ahead. Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to the Rosenberg Round-up The Week in Review...
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