Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilsey

Another big cost for data centers: insurance!You always hear about the obvious expenses involved in building data centers: incredibly expensive chips, massive energy requirements, cooling systems, and the cost of constructing the facility itself. But there’s another major expense that doesn’t get nearly as much attention: insurance.Once completed, a large data center can be worth anywhere from $20 billion to $50 billion or more. Meta’s data center project in Northeast Louisiana, for example, is expected to cost more than $50 billion and will house thousands of servers along with extremely valuable power and cooling…AI has taken scamming seniors to a whole new levelThe Federal Trade Commission estimates that roughly $196 billion was lost to fraud, with nearly half of that or about $82 billion coming from people over the age of 60. It’s now estimated that roughly 37% of fraud involves artificial intelligence.The cases are frightening because scammers can now use AI to identify targets, make their pitches more convincing, execute scams faster, and target thousands of people at a scale we’ve never seen before.With AI, scammers can create what appears to be legitimate proof of identity, including realistic passports, driver’s licenses, websites, and other documents. Gone…The Housing Market Has a Rate ProblemExisting-home sales fell 2% in August to an annualized pace of 3.98 million homes, the lowest level since June 2025. Sales are now down 1.2% from a year ago and have remained stuck around the 4 million annualized level for much of the past few years. Historically, a more normal housing market has been closer to 5.2 million existing home sales annually.At the same time, we are finally seeing more inventory. There were 1.62 million existing homes for sale in August, up 5.9% from a year ago and the highest level since 2019. That represents about 4.9 months of supply, which is the highest level in over a decade. This gives buyers more choices and more negotiating power than they've… How will Apple stock do under new CEO John Ternus?Apple has turned a new page in its history books with Tim Cook stepping down after 15 years at the helm. Cook did a tremendous job managing the business and growing the stock mainly by improving the supply chain to overseeing the launch of products like the Apple Watch and AirPods. During his 15-year tenure, Apple stock increased roughly 2,680%, which is a phenomenal return for investors.This reminds me of another major business story that was incredibly successful: General Electric under the leadership of Jack Welch. Welch ran GE for 20 years, from 1981 to 2001. During his tenure, GE stock increased roughly 4,000%. Yes, that was over five more years than Cook's…A Fed Rate Hike Now Looks InevitableWe received two important inflation reports this past week, and my takeaway is pretty straightforward: inflation itself still doesn't look overly problematic, but there are some areas that have me concerned.The Producer Price Index showed wholesale prices increased 0.4% in August. Producer prices are now up 5.4% from a year ago, which was slightly above expectations. Then on Friday, we got the Consumer Price Index, which showed consumer prices increased 0.4% in August and are up 3.4% over the last year.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.4% over…Financial Planning: Tax Exemption for Retired MilitaryCalifornia military retirees may now be eligible for a valuable new state tax break. Through tax year 2029, California allows qualified taxpayers to exclude up to $20,000 of military retirement pay from California for taxable income. The provision applies to retirement pay received from the federal government for service in the uniformed services, as well as qualifying annuity…Company Discussed: Lululemon athletica inc. (Ticker: LULU)

The AI Capex Bubble Is Starting to Look CrazyI keep coming back to the same question when I look at the incredible amount of money being poured into artificial intelligence: Where is all of this capital ultimately going to earn a return? Since the beginning of 2024, roughly $500 billion has been spent on chips, $350 billion on power infrastructure, $200 billion on construction and $100 billion on networking…The Stock Market Today Resembles the Stock Market of 1901Some people believe they are witnessing something completely different in the stock market today and that what is happening now has never happened before. They believe the market will continue rising forever, and that there is simply no way they can lose. History tells us otherwise…The Jobs Report Was Much Stronger Than ExpectedToday’s jobs report was a big surprise. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the roughly 53,000 expected and the strongest monthly gain in five months. Even more importantly, July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000. June was also revised higher, meaning the previous two months were collectively revised up by 55,000 jobs…Sports betting as an investment strategy? This is crazy.According to a Siena Poll, more than a quarter (27%) of Americans and over half (52%) of men aged 18 to 49 say they have an active online sportsbook account. That’s not a problem to me if you view sports gambling for what it is…. Which is gambling. The bigger problem I see is another recent survey from Betterment showed 52% of Gen Z investors…How the Big Food Companies Are Battling Diet DrugsIt is estimated that by 2035, 15% of the American population will be using or will have used GLP-1 drugs. No surprise, this is a potential problem for the big food companies, which have historically benefited from consumers eating more. We are still in the early stages of the diet-drug revolution, and some of the downsides are becoming more apparent. Some users report that food doesn't taste as good, sometimes describing it as tasting like Styrofoam…Financial Planning: What It Means to “Be Your Own Bank”Sometimes phrases like “be your own bank” or “borrow from yourself” are presented as sophisticated ways to access capital without being taken advantage of by a lending institution. But the truth is, it is impossible to literally “borrow from yourself.” You either use your own money, or you borrow someone else’s money. When you take a loan against a life insurance policy, use a HELOC… Company Discussed: DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (Ticker: DKS)

The K-Shaped Economy May Be ImprovingIf you’re unfamiliar with the term, the upper arm of the “K” represents higher-income Americans, who are spending more and generally doing better. The lower arm represents lower-income consumers who have been struggling with higher prices and tighter budgets.But there are signs the lower end of the K-shaped economy may finally be improving.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued that the K-shaped economy is over and that we’re moving toward what he calls a “C-shaped economy,” where lower-income workers are beginning to catch up.That may sound like a bold statement, but…How to protect yourself when someone tries to sell you alternative investmentsYou may already know this, but there are some brokers out there who are very good salespeople and unfortunately, they may be more concerned about their commission than your financial well-being.It’s estimated that over the next three to four years, another $2 trillion of client assets could flow into alternative investments. I’ve talked at length about the high fees, which can be 2% or more, and the fact that your money could be tied up for 10 years or longer. Even when you are allowed to get your money back, the redemption process can be very slow.If you still believe an alternative investment makes sense for you, here are some questions…Should You Invest in Dividend-Paying Stocks or Not?Over the last 15 years, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 has been cut roughly in half from more than 2% to just over 1%. Some investors may say, “Who cares? My total return is much higher, and I don’t need the dividends.” But they may be missing an important part of investing, especially as they get older and closer to retirement.Dividend-paying stocks can provide a valuable source of cash flow. Qualified dividends also receive favorable tax treatment compared with ordinary income. That tax advantage, particularly when compared with interest from U.S. Treasuries or CDs, is worth considering.Another benefit investors sometimes overlook is dividend growth. Many companies increase their dividends over time, sometimes…You could be paying more for products because of something called dynamic pricing.Most people assume that when they see a price online, everyone else is seeing the same price. That may no longer be the case.With AI and the enormous amount of data companies can collect, retailers can learn a surprising amount about you. They may know your browsing history, location, the type of device you’re using, your purchase patterns and even how long your cursor stays over a particular product.They can also potentially…AI Is Creating Turmoil in the Book Publishing IndustryAI is disrupting many areas of our lives that we’ve become accustomed to and the book publishing industry is no exception.The publishing industry is struggling with a difficult question: How much AI should authors be allowed to use?Some authors believe books should not be created by machines. Last year, 70 well-known authors signed a pledge opposing the use of AI to generate books.But the major publishing houses, including Random House and HarperCollins, aren’t necessarily taking such a hard-line approach. They’ve discovered that AI can be extremely useful for authors…GM May Lose the Title of No. 1 Auto Seller in the U.S.General Motors has held the No. 1 spot for auto sales in the United States for 100 years, but that streak could be coming to an end. Toyota is closing in, and based on sales through July, GM has sold only about 100,000 more vehicles than Toyota.At first, that sounds like bad news for GM. But I actually think it’s a positive development.For years, GM sacrificed profits in an effort to remain the No. 1 automaker. The company frequently relied on large rebates and discounts to move… Company Discussed: Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (Ticker: AAP)For the full details, check out our latest newsletter.SmartInvestin2000.com

The AI boom is starting to look a lot more leveraged than investors realizeThere is a growing risk in the AI infrastructure buildout that isn’t getting nearly enough attention: how much of this spending is being financed, and how much of the risk is sitting off the balance sheet. The headline numbers around capital expenditures are already staggering, but what…Refined oil could be in jeopardy over the next 6 to 12 monthsU.S. refineries are currently operating at historically high utilization rates at around 96.5%. Aside from July 25 of this year, when utilization briefly reached 97.2%, the last time refineries were operating at this level was in 2018, when utilization hit 96.6%...Americans are traveling more than everIf you’ve noticed how busy airports have been lately, there’s a reason: Americans are traveling more than ever, and there’s little sign of that slowing down. One reason is wealth. Americans collectively hold roughly $100 trillion in wealth. They’re also living longer and, perhaps more than any previous generation…Do you have any healthcare stocks in your portfolio?You may be thinking, “What a boring investment.” And it’s true, healthcare stocks have performed poorly over the last few years. But if your portfolio is heavily concentrated in high-risk areas like AI and technology, you may want to consider adding a couple of healthcare stocks...The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. But how much does it really change?The Treasury announced this week that it will at least double the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, beginning in September. The move is designed to improve liquidity in the longer-dated Treasury market after long-term yields surged…Financial Planning: Do You Have the Right Home Insurance Deductible?Homeowners insurance across California has been an ongoing issue, with premiums rising sharply and some policies being canceled or not renewed by insurers. If your goal is to reduce the cost of homeowners insurance, one strategy worth considering is choosing a higher deductible and paying for smaller losses out…Companies: Peloton Interactive, Inc. (Ticker: PTON)

Second Quarter Earnings Give Me Some Optimism I call all my clients on their yearly anniversary with our firm to have a discussion about their past performance and where I see their portfolio going over the next six to 12 months. I’m very pleased to report that I expected a more subdued performance in 2026 than what we’re experiencing so far. However, stronger-than-expected returns can also make projecting what comes next a little more difficult. Even with… The AI boom is getting increasingly dependent on financing There is no question that AI is creating enormous demand for computing power, data centers and semiconductors. But the latest move from Nvidia and Wall Street raises an important question: How much of this growth is being driven by genuine economic demand, and how much is being enabled by increasingly creative… Will Investors Really Be Patient Holding Their SpaceX Stock? The common advice I hear when it comes to SpaceX is simple: “Don’t worry about it. Just hold the shares, don’t look at them, and you’ll be glad you did 10 years from now.” It’s certainly possible that this advice will prove to be correct. But I question whether human emotions can really handle that kind of long-term commitment when it comes to an investment as volatile and intangible as a stock like this. Think about everything that can happen over the next 10 years. There will be negative news, disappointing developments, changing expectations and plenty of commentary that investors simply won’t be able to ignore. And there’s another issue… Retail sales look better than the headline suggests The headlines are focused on the 0.6% month-over-month decline in retail sales in July, the first monthly decline in nine months and the largest drop since May 2025. That sounds concerning, but there are some important factors behind the monthly decline that deserve attention. One of the biggest was nonstore retailers, which fell 2.2% from June. That category is heavily influenced by online shopping, and the decline appears to be largely a timing issue related to Amazon Prime Day. Amazon moved Prime Day from July into June this year, creating a significant boost to June online sales and, consequently, a tougher comparison for July. U.S. consumers increased spending 9.3% year over year to roughly $26.4 billion online during the June 23–26 Prime Day period, and … Inflation Is Cooling, But Energy Is Muddying the Picture The CPI report was better than the headline number might suggest, and I don't believe it gives the Federal Reserve a compelling reason to raise interest rates. Headline CPI increased 3.4% year over year in July, down from 3.5% in June. More importantly, core CPI increased just 2.5% year over year, down from 2.6% in June. The biggest contributor to the elevated headline number continues to be energy. Energy prices are up 14.7% from a year ago, including a massive 24.6% increase in gasoline prices. That's a significant increase and is keeping headline inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. But here's the problem I have with using higher interest rates to… A new tax requirement could create another source of selling pressure for Crypto There was an important change in the way the IRS tracks cryptocurrency transactions, and I think investors should pay attention to the potential impact on the crypto market. Beginning with the 2025 tax year, crypto brokers are required to issue Form 1099-DA, which reports…Financial Planning: 15- or 30-year mortgages? A 30-year mortgage is often the better financial choice for a disciplined investor because the lower monthly payment frees up more money to invest. Although a 15-year mortgage typically has a lower interest rate and saves more interest over the life of the loan, the higher payments mean more money is tied up in home equity rather... Companies: Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

Apparently, self-driving cars don’t know where they shouldn’t parkSelf-driving cars are proving to be remarkably safe on the road and, so far, have demonstrated a better safety record than human drivers in many situations. However, like all technology, they still lack common sense. They may be able to navigate traffic...Why Interest Rates Could Stay Higher Than Many ExpectOne of the biggest debates in financial markets today is where interest rates are heading. While recessions can temporarily push yields lower, there are several long-term structural reasons why interest rates may remain elevated compared to what investors became accustomed to...Should You Buy or Sell That Luxury Brand Stock?Luxury brand stocks that sell high-end handbags, jewelry, and other luxury goods have been in a bear market for the past couple of years. After aggressively raising prices during and immediately following the pandemic, it appears the buying frenzy for luxury products has faded...The Paramount deal just can't stay out of the newsNext month will mark one year since Paramount began its pursuit of Warner Bros. What started as an unsolicited bid eventually turned into an agreement for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. in an $81 billion deal. However...Should U.S. Car Makers Like Ford and General Motors Diversify Their Businesses?It's no secret that the auto industry is highly cyclical, with periods of strong demand followed by inevitable slowdowns. Right now, both Ford and General Motors are generating significant cash flow and posting solid earnings despite paying billions of dollars in tariff costs and writing...A Weak Jobs Report, But There Were a Few Bright SpotsThere is no sugarcoating it, today's jobs report was weaker than expected and adds to the evidence that the labor market is continuing to cool. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 jobs in the month and May and June saw a combined negative revision of 103,000 jobs...Financial Planning: Understanding Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA)Employees who have built up significant company stock inside their 401(k) may have a valuable tax planning opportunity called Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA). NUA allows retirees to move ...Companies: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Ticker: CMG)

Those Long-Term Chip Deals May Not Be as Secure as Investors Are Led to BelieveWhen you listen to memory chip companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology discuss their businesses, they often make it sound like customer contracts—some extending as long as five years—are essentially set in stone. Unfortunately, that's not entirely true.Yes, these companies have long-term agreements in place, but contracts in this industry are often renegotiated when market conditions change. If demand for memory chips weakens significantly, chip manufacturers have a strong incentive to work with their…Why Index Investing Could Leave You Disappointed Long TermI often hear people say, "Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it. You'll be fine." While that sounds simple, investing is rarely that easy.Many investors don't fully understand how an index works or why it has performed so well in recent years. The S&P 500 has been driven largely by a handful of technology and AI companies. By blindly investing in the index, many people are simply participating in… The U.S. economy is still in much better shape than many people think.This week brought three major events for investors: GDP, PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve meeting. While the headlines may have sounded mixed, the underlying data still paints a healthy consumer.Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, below economists' expectations. At first glance, that may seem disappointing. But when you look under the hood, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased 3.2% after a weak first quarter where it only climbed 0.5%. That tells me… Leverage Is Fuel... Until It Becomes the FireThe last few weeks have been a reminder that leverage looks like a wonderful tool on the way up... but it’s a devastating one on the way down.FINRA's new margin rules have effectively replaced the 25-year-old Pattern Day Trader rule, allowing traders with as little as $2,000 to make… Here Come the Robots!Robots have been making their way into manufacturing for decades. The first industrial robotic arm, called Unimate, was installed in 1961 on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Trenton, New Jersey. But today's robots are very different. They're no longer just stationary robotic arms bolted to the factory floor, they're starting to look and move like humans.That reality is beginning to make workers uneasy. At a Hyundai Motor plant in South Korea, employees have gone on a partial strike, with concerns over automation playing a role. Hyundai recently unveiled its humanoid robot, Atlas, which stands 6'2", weighs about 200 pounds, can lift up to 110 pounds, and can continuously carry nearly 70 pounds. It's easy to… Financial Planning: Tax Relief Coming for Older Home Sellers?The federal home sale capital gain exclusion has remained unchanged since 1997, allowing homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 of gain if single or $500,000 if married filing jointly when selling a primary residence.With home values rising significantly over the past three decades, particularly in high-cost areas like California, many long-time homeowners now face substantial capital gains taxes when downsizing.A new proposal, the Nest Egg Protection Act, would increase the exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older who have owned and lived in… Companies Discussed: International Business Machines Corporation (Ticker: IBM)

Netflix Is Struggling to Stay on Top…. and the Stock Reflects ItFor years, Netflix has been the dominant force in streaming, consistently taking market share from its competitors. However, recent data suggests the competition is beginning to chip away at that lead… U.S. oil supplies are falling to concerning levelsU.S. oil inventories have fallen to levels that should be a concern. The current U.S. oil stockpile is just under 410 million barrels. On a seasonal basis, we have not seen inventories this low since 2018. The seasonal comparison is important because summer is one of the highest-consumption periods of the year… Banks Had a Great Quarter, Is It Time to Invest?Last week, the banks reported financial results that topped estimates for both earnings and revenue. They also showed improved efficiency as expenses declined as a percentage of revenue. After such a strong quarter, you might think the coast is clear and it’s time to invest in the banking sector…Are new homes actually a better deal than existing homes?There is an interesting trend developing in the housing market: the median price of a newly built home is now lower than the median price of an existing home. Historically there has been about a 20% premium for new homes…Stock Trading Is Off the Charts!There is a frenzy happening in the stock market right now. With individuals buying and selling stocks, along with institutional investors constantly trading, Wall Street is generating enormous trading fees. But one has to ask the question: Does all of this activity make…If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!A recent story in Barron’s highlights a warning that applies to everyone, not just professional athletes. Several current and former professional athletes reportedly invested in an online business opportunity that sounded too good to be true…Financial Planning: Conservation Easements: Valuable Planning Tool or Tax Trap?Conservation easements are a tax planning strategy that allows a landowner to permanently donate certain development rights to a qualified conservation organization in exchange for a charitable income tax deduction equal to the reduction in the property's value…Companies Discussed: Fiserv, Inc. (Ticker: FISV)

META's stock surged last week, but investors shouldn't ignore the risks.Meta shares climbed last week as Wall Street became increasingly optimistic about the company's AI strategy. The stock was up about15% for the week and erased the year-to-date losses. Investors are betting that Meta's enormous spending on AI infrastructure, custom chips, top engineering talent, and next-generation models will lead to faster revenue growth, stronger advertising tools, and new revenue streams over the next several years. The market clearly believes Meta has positioned itself as one of the leaders in the AI race.But while investors were celebrating, Europe reminded everyone that…The spring home sales season disappointed in JuneThe spring home-selling season ended on a disappointing note. Through May, existing home sales had been showing signs of improvement, and many real estate professionals were becoming more optimistic about the housing market. However, June's data told a different story.The conflict involving Iran contributed to…Another Hidden Cost of AI: SteelMost people know that the AI buildout has driven up demand for advanced computer chips, contributing to higher prices for smartphones, laptops, and other electronics. They also know that AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity, putting upward pressure on utility rates as more power is diverted to support AI infrastructure.But there's another cost that receives far less attention…Inflation Is Cooling... But Don't Pop the Champagne YetThe latest CPI report was another encouraging sign that inflation is moving in the right direction. Headline CPI declined 0.4% in June, marking the largest monthly drop since 2020, while the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was flat on the month and eased to 2.6% year over year. Much of the improvement was driven by…Higher Gas Prices Aren’t Stopping the American ConsumerIf you were looking for evidence that higher gas prices are slowing down the American consumer, the latest retail sales report doesn’t provide much support.The headline number was relatively modest, with retail and food services sales increasing 0.2% from May. But the year-over-year numbers tell a much stronger story.Total retail and food services sales were…Financial Planning: What’s Next for Social SecurityThe Social Security Trustees’ most recent solvency report highlights the need for Congress to address the program’s long-term funding shortfall. Under current projections, the retirement trust fund is expected to be depleted in 2032, at which point ongoing payroll tax revenue would be sufficient to pay only about 78% of scheduled benefits unless legislative changes are made. Importantly, this does not mean Social Security will become insolvent or stop paying benefits, it means…Companies Discussed: Nike, Inc. (Ticker: NKE)Read the complete article at SmartInvesting2000.com in our latest Smart Investing Newsletter.

Did you ever wonder why so many people didn't get out before the dot-com crash?It's an important question to ask yourself, especially if you believe you'll know exactly when to get out before any potential correction in today's AI and semiconductor stocks…Don’t Build That Data Center in My BackyardThe race to build AI infrastructure is running into an obstacle that many investors probably didn't see coming: local communities. Across the country, residents are…Is Crypto Weakening One of America's Most Powerful Weapons?One of the United States' greatest geopolitical advantages isn't its military, it's the U.S. dollar.Roughly 90% of global foreign exchange transactions involve the U.S. dollar. That dominance gives the United States enormous leverage…Even with oil off its recent peak, you still may not see cheaper airline tickets.You might assume that with the decline in oil prices, jet fuel costs are also declining, and airlines will pass those savings on to travelers through lower ticket prices. Oil and jet fuel prices have indeed come down, but don't expect airlines to slash fares anytime soon…Letting Air Out of the Investment Portfolio Balloon Before It PopsAt one point or another, we've all seen a balloon inflated until it finally bursts. The same thing can happen to an investment portfolio… Is AI creating the next memory boom... or setting up the next bust?SK Hynix just pulled off the largest foreign ADR listing in U.S. history, pricing its American depositary receipts at $149 and raising $26.5 billion. That isn't just a fundraising event…Financial Planning: Simple vs Compounding Interest LoansMany people assume that choosing a simple interest loan over a compound interest loan will dramatically reduce the amount of interest they pay, but in most real-world lending situations, the difference is minimal. The reason is…Companies Discussed: Caterpillar Inc. (Ticker: CAT)

Competition for AI Is Coming From a Surprise Source That Could Pressure U.S. Companies' Prices and Profits We tend to focus on the major AI companies in the United States and assume they will be the long-term winners. However, one competitor that cannot be ignored is China. Chinese companies are making rapid progress in artificial intelligence, and they could become a serious challenge to… The Business of Kids' Sports Is Changing and it May Not Be for the Better Private equity has made its way into nearly every corner of the economy, and now it's becoming a major force in youth sports. The Aspen Institute has estimated that youth sports are now a $40 billion industry in the U.S, which is likely why private equity is now targeting the space. That's raising serious concerns about what happens when maximizing investor returns becomes… Bitcoin Company Strategy Is in Trouble Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, changed its name after the company essentially became a leveraged bet on Bitcoin rather than a software business. As management shifted its focus almost entirely to buying Bitcoin, it dropped the "Micro" from its name to reflect that new identity. CEO Michael Saylor spent years promoting Bitcoin and telling investors… Upper-middle-class Americans may not be as financially secure as they would like Upper-middle-class Americans, generally defined as households earning between $150,000 and $250,000 per year, may be in a stronger financial position than most, but many are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future. You may be surprised to learn that 86% of upper-middle-class Americans do not believe their children will have a better life than they have. Just seven years ago… Did The Recent Jobs Report Tell the Whole Story? At first glance, this weeks jobs report looked fairly uneventful. The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. This was below the estimate of 115k, but it does follow three strong months of payroll growth. After looking through the report, there are several numbers that raise some important questions… The biggest risk in AI may not be the technology, it may be the economics. This week, Bradley Tusk and Ed Zitron raised important questions that investors shouldn't ignore. Bradley Tusk (founder and CEO of Tusk Ventures and a venture capitalist) made an interesting observation: investors are treating frontier AI models the same. But China's AI companies are proving that powerful models can be developed much more cheaply and improve much faster than many expected. If lower-cost models continue to narrow the performance gap, AI models could become increasingly commoditized, making it much harder for companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure to earn… Financial Planning: Trump Account Investment Options Released Ahead of $1,000 Seed Funding Trump Accounts are expected to receive $1,000 of government seed money as soon as the 4th of July. If you have a child born in 2025 through 2028, you can apply online now at trumpaccounts.gov. This is basically a retirement account with a caveat, contributions can be made on behalf of children even if they don’t have earned income. However extra contributions are made on an after-tax non-Roth basis so no upfront tax deduction and no tax-free growth. Instead contributions establish… Companies Discussed: Meta Platforms, Inc. (Ticker: META)

Want the New iPhone 18 This September? Be Prepared to Pay More…. A Lot MoreThe iPhone 18 is expected to be released in just a few months, and if current estimates are accurate, consumers could be facing some serious sticker shock. One of the biggest reasons is the ongoing battle for semiconductor components. The rapid buildout of AI data centers has created enormous demand for… Bad News: The Dollar Is Strong AgainSome people may read that headline and think, "What's the problem? Isn't a strong dollar a good thing?" Not necessarily. A strong dollar sounds positive, but the reality is more complicated. The U.S. dollar is now at its strongest level since May 2025. While that may feel good on the surface, a stronger dollar can create challenges for the economy… Can Alphabet/Google Take Some of Nvidia's Market Share?Nvidia currently controls roughly 90% of the AI computing chip market. Whenever a company dominates an industry to that extent, it creates an opportunity for competitors to enter with comparable products at lower prices. That's exactly what Alphabet's Google is attempting to do with its artificial intelligence chips…The Dow’s Alphabet Move Is a Sign of Weakness, Not StrengthThe Dow Jones is once again proving why it has become one of the most outdated and least useful stock market indexes in America. This week S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Alphabet will be added to the Dow, replacing Verizon. The financial media is treating it like the Dow is finally modernizing itself for the AI era. I see it differently. This is not leadership. It is not vision. It is not smart index construction…Fed Stress Test Confirms the Strength of U.S. Bank Balance SheetsU.S. banks once again came through the Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress test looking structurally strong, even under an intentionally severe economic downturn scenario. The results continue to reinforce one of the most important post-financial-crisis themes: large banks today are built to withstand a shock that would have been destabilizing in prior cycles… What Is Quantum Computing All About?Quantum computing is the next big step in the evolution of computing, and there’s no way around it: it’s a complex subject. But it’s also one of the most important technologies being developed today. If your son or daughter is in high school and unsure what they want to study in college, they may want to consider quantum physics, engineering, or computer science with a focus on quantum …Financial Planning: Accessing Home EquityHomeowners tapped an estimated $47 billion of their roughly $11 trillion of home equity during the first quarter of 2026, the highest first quarter total since 2021. There are three primary ways to borrow against that equity. A cash-out refinance replaces your current mortgage with a…Companies Discussed: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

You Didn’t Get SpaceX? Don’t Worry, There Are Other Mega IPOs ComingYou may feel like everyone got into SpaceX except you, and now you're wondering: Should I buy shares today? Is there something better coming next? The reality is that several other massive IPOs could be coming sooner than many investors realize. At the top of the list are OpenAI, with an estimated valuation of $852 billion, Anthropic, with an estimated valuation of $965 billion, Stripe, with an estimated valuation of $159 billion, and Databricks, with an estimated valuation… What Can the Nifty Fifty and Tech Bubble Teach Us About Today's Market?Every market cycle has a story. In the early 1970s it was the "Nifty Fifty." In the late 1990s it was the internet and technology boom. Today it is artificial intelligence.The late 1990s we saw the technology boom where the internet was a revolutionary innovation that truly changed the world. Investors were correct about the technology but wrong about what they… Private Credit Funds Are Facing High Redemption Requests Again This QuarterFor the first quarter of 2026, redemption requests in several private credit funds exceeded the industry-standard 5% quarterly redemption cap.Second-quarter requests appear to be even higher. BlackRock's flagship private credit fund received redemption requests totaling 13.3% of fund assets, up from 9.3% in the first quarter. BlackRock has indicated it will… Investors Turn a Blind Eye to FundamentalsFor many years, successful investing was built on analyzing company fundamentals. Today, however, there is a growing trend toward speculation and gambling. Many investors simply do not seem to care about valuation or earnings and instead believe stocks will continue to go "to the moon."Tesla is a good example. Three years ago… Headlines Say Crisis, Economic Data Says OtherwiseThe economy continues to show surprising resilience despite concerns surrounding higher energy prices and the conflict involving Iran.Many investors expected consumers to pull back as gasoline prices surged and headlines focused on geopolitical risks. Instead, economic data suggests the U.S. consumer remains in… The Most Important Part of the Fed Meeting Wasn't the Rate DecisionThe Federal Reserve's June meeting marked one of the biggest shifts in Fed communication and leadership in decades.As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the details beneath the surface were far more important.For the first time since 1951, a former Fed chair will remain on the Board after stepping down as chairman. Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as a governor creates an unusual dynamic as new Chairman Kevin Warsh begins reshaping the institution. Historically… Financial Planning: Give More, Pay Less with Appreciated StockOne of the most tax-efficient ways to support a favorite charity or church is by donating appreciated stock instead of cash. When stock that has been held for more than one year is gifted directly to a qualified charity, the charity receives the full market value of the shares and can sell them without paying tax because it is a tax-exempt organization.The donor generally receives the same charitable income tax deduction they would have received had they donated cash, while also avoiding the realization of any capital gain. For example, if someone is considering donating either $50,000 of cash or $50,000 of appreciated stock, the charity receives the same economic benefit in either case, $50,000 that can be used to further its mission. Likewise, the donor generally… Companies Discussed: Accenture plc (ACN)

Can Apple Update the 16-Year-Old Siri?This week marked Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in Cupertino, California. One of the biggest storylines is Apple's effort to reinvent Siri, which many users now view as one of the least capable AI assistants on the market…The Housing Market Is Finally Starting to Look Normal AgainFor the last several years, the housing market has felt anything but normal. Ultra-low mortgage rates, limited inventory, bidding wars, and rapidly rising home prices created an environment that left many buyers frustrated and many sellers expecting unrealistic prices…Inflation Hits a Three-Year High, But the Details Tell a Different StoryThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation rising 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023. At first glance, that sounds concerning. But a deeper look shows that the inflation story is being driven largely by a handful of categories, especially energy and travel… How long will the AI buildout cycle really last?The market has rewarded virtually every company connected to AI infrastructure. Chip manufacturers, networking companies, power providers, cooling suppliers, data center REITs, and cloud providers have all benefited from an unprecedented surge in spending. But history tells us that every capital spending boom eventually slows…SpaceX IPO Finally Come To the Market, Should You Buy Now?Live Market Discussion!Companies Discussed: Docusign, Inc (DOCU), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)

Where is the money coming from that is fueling this technology rally?No one knows for certain, but there are some concerning signs that suggest many investors may not have the cash to support their positions and are instead relying on borrowed money to drive the rally higher. One metric we continue to monitor closely is margin debt, a potentially dangerous tool that has now reached record levels.Margin debt hit a record $1.304 trillion in April, an increase of 6.8% from the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, margin debt surged 53.3%, highlighting the growing use of leverage in the market. Looking at US margin debt as a percent of real GDP, it just hit…Car Sales Are Down, and I Think That's a Good ThingIn 2019, consumers in the United States were buying roughly 17 million cars and trucks each year. This year, vehicle sales are expected to reach only about 16 million. Many consumers complain that new-car prices are simply too high, with the average new vehicle now costing around $50,000. Currently, only about 25% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. are priced between $25,000 and $35,000.I believe this trend is actually a positive development. For too many years, automakers focused on producing as many vehicles as possible in an effort to gain market share. In the long run, this proved to be a poor business strategy. Over the years, several manufacturers required government bailouts, while others filed for bankruptcy, hurting shareholders, creditors, employees, and communities.Of course, consumers benefited from…The May jobs report delivered another reminder that the U.S. economy remains on solid footingEmployers added 172,000 jobs in May, well above expectations of 80,000, and the broader trend is becoming increasingly encouraging. Over the last three months, job growth has seen gains of 214k, 179k, and now 172k in May, an improvement from the pace we’ve seen really since the beginning of 2025. Rather than slowing, the labor market appears to be finding a sustainable rhythm that balances continued hiring with moderating inflation pressures.One of the most notable areas of strength continues to be hospitality and leisure. The sector added 70k jobs in May, reflecting resilient consumer spending on travel, restaurants, entertainment, and experiences. Despite concerns that higher interest rates would weigh heavily on discretionary spending, Americans continue to spend on services, supporting employment growth across hotels, restaurants, and tourism-related businesses.Perhaps the most important takeaway for investors and policymakers is…Financial Planning: Return on HomeownershipHomeownership is often viewed as a superior financial decision, while renting is frequently considered "throwing money away." However, the comparison is more nuanced. A $1 million home in San Diego may rent for approximately $4,000 per month, while owning that same home could cost about $7,000 per month after a $200,000 down payment when the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance are included. Even after accounting for estimated tax benefits of $1,000 per month and approximately $750 per month of equity from the principal reduction of the mortgage, the effective cost of ownership would still be about $5,250 per month. In addition, the down payment represents capital that could otherwise be invested and generate returns. When the higher cost of ownership and the opportunity cost of the down payment are considered together, the home would need to appreciate by about 3.5% annually just to produce the same financial outcome as renting and investing the difference. While homeownership offers benefits such as stability, control, and a fixed payment, future home price growth is likely to be…Companies Discussed: Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), The Western Union Company (WU) & AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Logic should tell you there may not be much growth left in Nvidia Investing has become increasingly emotional for many people, and too often investors stop thinking logically. Could the popular company Nvidia continue climbing higher? Of course it could. But there are logical reasons to believe its future growth may be limited compared to what investors expect today. First, consider the company’s market capitalization. As the stock price rises, so does the market cap, which currently sits around $5.2 trillion, depending on the day. To put that number into perspective, $5 trillion is roughly equal to the entire GDP of Japan. With that amount of money, you could buy all the real...The Consumer Isn’t Breaking, it’s Quietly Running Out of Cushion The recent economic data showed that inflation came in line with expectations and much of the shift can likely be attributed to higher energy prices. A bigger concern to keep an eye on is what’s happening to household finances underneath the surface. April core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, exactly in line with expectations. This was the highest annual level since November 2023. At this point, inflation still doesn’t appear to be a crisis story. If energy prices can decline, I believe much of the recent increase in inflation would dissipate and we’d head closer to the Fed’s 2% target. While I’d say inflation isn’t a major concern currently, the data suggests consumers are increasingly stretched financially... The most important part of the SpaceX IPO may not be the valuation. It may be the mechanics behind the stock itself. SpaceX has yet to declare the size of its IPO offering, but it will likely be a single-digit percentage of the company’s total shares outstanding. That matters because float, not just valuation, can determines how violently a stock moves in the early months after an IPO. When demand is huge and supply is constrained, prices can disconnect from fundamentals quickly. If institutions, retail investors, and passive index funds are all competing for a tiny number of available shares, scarcity alone can drive a major rally independent of fundamentals. Nasdaq created a rule in May that shortened the waiting period for megacap stocks to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index to 15 trading days, which is down from as long as a year. There’s also a proposal to shorten the waiting period for S&P 500 inclusion to six months from 12 months and there’s speculation that could be implemented before the SpaceX IPO... Financial Planning: Match or Max Your 401(k) Many people have heard the advice to contribute enough to their 401(k) to receive the company match, but stopping there can mean leaving one of the most powerful wealth-building tools underutilized. A 401(k) allows investments to grow tax-deferred or tax-free with traditional and Roth contributions, which can significantly improve long-term after-tax returns compared to other investment options...Companies Discussed: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & MGM Resorts International (MGM)

Why do low P/E stocks perform better in overpriced markets?We are currently in a momentum-driven market, and many people are experiencing FOMO, which is the fear of missing out. Much of this is being fueled by AI and technology stocks, where investors are willing to pay almost any price because they believe these industries will continue growing indefinitely and they don’t want to miss the opportunity.The problem is that high P/E stocks and companies with no P/E since there are no earnings at all already have massive future success priced into them. When the market eventually declines, as it always does at some point, it is often because these high-flying companies miss lofty expectations. That can trigger major selloffs and sharp declines in stock prices…Is Your Beer Budget Feeling the Gas Pump?If your beer fridge has been looking a little emptier lately, you're not alone and the culprit might not be your willpower. New Nielsen scanner data shows that U.S. beer, hard seltzer, and cider volumes dropped 6.3% year over year through the week ending May 2, both on a two- and four-week trailing basis. This was nearly double the 3% declines seen between November and mid-April.What's driving it? Analysts at Bernstein are pointing straight at the gas pump. There's a clear negative correlation between gas prices in a given state and beer volume growth, and it's becoming more visible in the data, particularly in markets with the most expensive fuel.Average U.S. gasoline prices have risen roughly 52% since the start of the Iran war, according to AAA. That's a serious hit to household budgets and it shows. California, with fuel averaging around $6.16 per gallon, saw a 16% decline in beer volumes. Arizona and Texas weren't far behind, posting declines of 10% and nearly 7%, respectively. Convenience stores seem to be seeing the brunt of the decline as they are highly sensitive to gas station traffic and impulse purchases tied…Information is starting to trickle in about the SpaceX IPOThe SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest initial public offering on record, with the potential to raise $80 billion or more through the stock sale. Based on the information currently available, SpaceX is expected to begin its roadshow around June 4th, which could place the public offering date near June 12th.The company is expected to trade under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq, as well as Nasdaq…Financial Planning: The Breakeven on Social SecurityMany people look at their Social Security statement and perform a breakeven analysis to determine how long they would have to live for waiting to claim benefits to pay off. These simple calculations often suggest that claiming at 62 is best if life expectancy is less than around 78, claiming at full retirement age around 67 makes sense if life expectancy is between 78 and 82, and waiting until 70 is best if someone expects to live beyond 82. The problem is that this type of analysis is often too simplistic and can be misleading. Most breakeven calculations only compare the total dollars received at different claiming ages and ignore several important factors. First, Social Security benefits continue to receive annual Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs), whether benefits are started early or delayed. Second, no one truly knows how long they will live, so any breakeven age is really just an estimate. Most importantly…Companies Discussed: Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT), YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI), IMAX Corporation (IMAX) & Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)

The Fed’s Inflation Problem Just Got More ComplicatedU.S. inflation accelerated sharply in April, with CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading in nearly three years, as the Iran conflict continued to ripple through global energy markets. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose to 2.8%, up from 2.6% in March, suggesting inflation…The Market Continues To Flash Warning Signs Beneath The SurfaceThe semiconductor sector, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, has only been this extended above its 200-day moving average twice before in modern history: 1995 and early 2000. Those are not random comparisons. In 2000, semiconductors peaked alongside the final stages of the dot-com…Consumers Say They’re Worried, But They Keep SpendingThe latest U.S. retail sales report continues to tell a very different story than consumer sentiment surveys.According to the latest Census Bureau retail sales data, overall retail and food service sales remained resilient, with strength in online retail, restaurants, electronics, and discretionary categories. Even after adjusting for slowing momentum from March’s surge, spending activity continues…Financial Planning: How are your Rental Properties Performing?Rental properties should be reviewed over time just like an investment portfolio, yet many owners focus on a few attractive details rather than critically evaluating the full picture. Looking only at the rent coming in or calculating “net cash flow” using just the mortgage, property taxes, and insurance…Companies Discussed: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Whirlpool Corporation (WHR), Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) & Ford Motor Company (F)

Bitcoin had a nice April, will it continueThe cryptocurrency gained 12.7% last month, marking its best performance since April 2025. Interestingly, according to CryptoQuant, the 30-day change in outright Bitcoin purchases remained negative throughout April. That suggests the rally wasn’t driven by strong spot demand.Instead, much of the momentum came from something called perpetual futures. Until recently, I wasn’t very familiar with this product, but at its core, it’s another tool that increases risk. Unlike traditional options, these derivative contracts have no expiration date and are designed to let traders speculate on the price movements of an underlying asset…When Will We See Gas Prices Come Back Down?No one can predict exactly when gas prices will decline, but many are aware the current prices are being driven higher by the situation with Iran. At this point, the bombing appears to have ended, but much of the country remains heavily damaged. Estimates suggest it could cost Iran nearly $300 billion to rebuild what has been destroyed.The situation has shifted to one in which Iran is slowly being weakened economically because little to no oil is being exported from the country, resulting in a major loss of revenue. Reports estimate these losses at roughly $200 million per day — approximately $6 billion per month or $12 billion over two months…The April jobs report just threw cold water on the “imminent Fed cuts” narrative.The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above expectations of 55,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Given little growth in the labor force, only modest job creation is needed to keep the rate steady. Wage growth also remained relatively firm at 3.6% on an annual basis. In short: the labor market is slowing from the breakneck pace of the post-COVID boom, but it is not breaking...Financial Planning: When Permanent Life Insurance isn’t PermanentCash value life insurance policies should be reviewed regularly because the long-term performance of the policy often changes significantly over time. In many policies, the internal cost of insurance increases every year as the insured ages because the probability of death rises with age. In addition, policies also have other internal expenses such as administrative fees, rider costs, premium loads, and investment management expenses. While policies are commonly illustrated using attractive hypothetical growth rates…Companies Discussed: GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), The Clorox Company (CLX) & Corning Incorporated (GLW)

More regulators are concerned about private credit The bad news just keeps coming for the private credit industry. If you’re not sure what private credit is, it is mostly middle market business loans extended by asset managers. People often don’t realize that these asset managers don’t have the same strict supervision that banks have on their loans. Investors may be starting to realize the risk because in the first quarter of 2026, private credit investors requested $20 billion from some of the private credit funds. Unfortunately, they only got a little bit over 50% of what they requested or about $11 billion. This could lead to higher redemption…Could prediction markets be available in your IRA soon?  Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares have filed applications with the SEC to launch exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts. If approved, these products could potentially be held in self-directed IRAs. The initial proposals appear relatively narrow in scope, focusing on outcomes like which party wins the White House in 2028 and which party controls the House and Senate after this year’s midterm elections. While these types of products can sound appealing—and successful bets could generate strong returns—they also carry a clear risk: if you’re wrong, you lose your entire investment. One of the main concerns is how complex and speculative these instruments are, especially…Who offers a better reward program? The big gas stations or Costco? When I pull into a Shell gas station, I always see a pitch on the screen about getting up to $0.30 back per gallon. Other stations like Chevron run similar promos, which got me wondering: how many people actually sign up—and are these deals better than Costco’s credit card with 4% cashback on gas? Right off the bat, gas station rewards programs feel overly complicated. Once you dig in, you’ll find caps, conditions, and purchase limits that make it tough to consistently get the maximum benefit. In the best-case scenario, you might get around $0.35 off per gallon. If gas is $6 per gallon, that works out to roughly a 5.8% discount. Not bad—but actually…Is there a bubble in sports teams? We’ve spent plenty of time talking about stretched valuations in stocks, the frenzy in crypto, and the rise of prediction markets—but sports teams may deserve a spot in that conversation too. Valuations across major leagues are climbing at a remarkable pace. The NFL is leading the charge, with the average team now valued at $7.65 billion, up from roughly $1 billion in 2010. NBA franchises tell a similar story: the average team is worth $5.52 billion, an 18% jump from just last year. Go back 15 years, and the average NBA team…Financial Planning: Understanding the Relative Cost of IRMAA IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) is best understood not as a flat cost, but as an additional marginal tax rate layered on top of federal and state income taxes. When your income exceeds certain thresholds, your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums increase, and because the adjustment applies for the entire year once you cross the threshold, even by $1, it creates a “tax cliff.” For example, in 2026 the first IRMAA tier for married couples begins at $218,000 of income. At that point, Part B premiums increase from $202.90 to $284.10 and Part D increases $14.50, resulting in an additional annual cost of $2,296.80. Since this tier spans $56,000 of income (from $218,000 to $274,000), that cost translates to roughly a 4.1% marginal “tax” on income within…Companies Discussed: Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Intel Corporation (INTC) & The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

Should the Fed still use the PCE as its inflation guide?I’ve talked a lot about the shelter index being misleading when it comes to inflation, especially when looking at the CPI, but the PCE has its flaws as well. The Federal Reserve has a 2% inflation target and uses monetary policy, which includes adjusting the Fed Funds rate, to tackle its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. A big problem I see with the PCE is that healthcare now accounts for roughly 16% to 17% of index. This comes as an aging population led healthcare spending to be the single largest contributor to consumer spending in 2025. It surpassed housing and utilities in early 2023 as the fastest growing category in the PCE and by Q3 of 2025, it contributed nearly a full percentage point to overall economic expansion and accounted for nearly half of all spending growth. While it’s…Even with all the noise, the consumer remains strongMarch retail sales showed a nice increase of 4.0% compared to last year and while gas stations were a large contributor growing 18.1% due to higher gas prices, excluding them from the report still would have resulted in a good increase of 2.9%. The only areas that saw declines in the report were motor vehicle and parts dealers, which were down 2.1%, and furniture and home furnishing stores, which were down 0.8%. Areas of strength included nonstore retailers, which were up 10.1%, electronics and appliance stores, which were up 5.2%, and clothing and clothing accessories stories, which were up 7.2%. Food services and drinking places saw growth slow, but there was still a positive increase of 2.4%. It’s not just the retail sales report that showed strength, Bank of America pointed…Can the new Apple CEO keep the stock gains coming?With the stock trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of around 32 times, I’ve got to say it’s going to be a very difficult task. Keep in mind over the last 50 years the average forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has been between around 15 to 19 times, nowhere near 32. I’m also reminded of a similar situation where a prominent company with such great stock success was taken over by a new CEO and the 16-year return was only 27% including dividends. That company I’m referring to is General Electric when Jack Welch retired and the new CEO Jeffrey Immelt who was handpicked by Jack Welch took over. Things could be different this time when the new CEO of Apple takes over on September 1st but again given the current valuation it will be difficult. John Ternus is…Your annuity may not be as safe as you think!Many people that are sold annuities are told by the broker that they are 100% safe and to be frank they would probably say almost anything to collect their big 7% or 8% commission. But the Treasury department has concerns and is talking to state insurance regulators about the large amount of private loans that insurance companies are using in their portfolios. Back in 2024 even the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which is also known as the NAIC and is the organizing body for regulators for every state in the US, had stated ratings that insurers had on private credit and investments were consistently overinflated. They have since…Financial Planning: Traditional or RothChoosing between traditional and Roth contributions comes down to one key question: will you be able to withdraw or convert that money at a lower tax rate than your rate today? Traditional contributions work best if the answer is yes, since you get a tax break now and pay less later, while Roth contributions are better if your future tax rate will be the same or higher. Many people enter a lower tax bracket starting at retirement and lasting until required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin at age 75, but this low-tax window is limited. There’s only so…Companies Discussed: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) & Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)

Has watching your favorite sports become a nightmare?It used to be easy to watch a football game as you generally had maybe two different networks it would be on and it was easy to find. Well, now the promise of streaming, reducing costs and making it easier for people to watch the shows and sports they want when they want has really missed the mark. The list can go on and on of where to watch the football game or sports you want to watch. Maybe the game will be on ESPN, Paramount+, TNT, NBC’s Peacock, CBS or maybe you’ll have to go to Amazon prime or the YouTube channel. It can be very frustrating trying to find the game you want and then you find out you don’t have the right subscription, and you have to pay extra to sign up for it. Well, maybe the justice department is coming to your rescue. Last week it was reported that the justice department is investigating whether the NFL is engaging in anti-competitive tactics that harm consumers. The investigation involves whether having many outlets for sports viewing is costing consumers far more and the NFL is taking advantage of its behemoth size and demand. There is no doubt that sports are getting out of control and just recently the NBA signed a record payday for their media rights. This has opened the door for many other sports, including the NFL, which apparently…To increase your stock price, just mention AII’m of course being facetious, but in many cases, it appears that way. This past week, Allbirds, which was a popular shoe company just a few years ago, announced it was pivoting from shoes to artificial intelligence and the stock at one point spiked by more than 700%. A large reason for the craziness is the market cap of the company was tiny at just about $21 million as of Tuesday’s close. When companies are this small there is more room for manipulation and wild swings as fewer capital inflows are needed to drive …It looks like Meta will become the digital ad kingMeta has been very patient growing its ad sales by establishing substantial user habits with their products like Reels, the microblogging site Threads, and even WhatsApp. All have been very slow to introduce advertisements to their users, but that patience has paid off as worldwide ad growth for Meta increased around 22.1% in 2025 and it’s estimated it will increase another 24.1% in 2026. Because of how large Meta is, it was expected that growth would slow, but that has not happened. Their growth is far higher than Google’s growth, which is projected to be around 11.9%, about the same as last year. The ad revenue numbers are staggering with Meta expected to reach $243.46 billion, about $4 billion more than Google’s $239.54 billion. That growth has not been cheap for…Financial Planning: Beware of Income Taxes when GiftingWhen parents give assets to their children, the income tax impact depends on what’s being gifted. Cash is usually the easiest and most tax-friendly option because there’s no built-in gain. There is no direct income tax to the giver or receiver, but if parents gift things like appreciated stock or real estate, the child receives the original cost basis as well. This means they will owe capital gains tax on all the appreciation when they sell it. In contrast, if the child inherits those same assets after the parents pass away, the basis typically steps up to current market value, wiping out that taxable gain. Because of this, it’s often smarter to gift cash or assets with little appreciation and hold onto…Companies Discussed: Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), HP Inc. (HPQ) & Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Could smart glasses replace the smart phone as the number one consumer device?If you’re like me, you probably remember the failure of Google Glass, which ended in 2015. Google may have exited the space early considering in 2025 global shipments of smart glasses hit 8.7 million units, which quadrupled 2024’s level. Meta currently holds 85% of the market but realize that Apple, Alphabet/ Google, and Samsung are expected to launch AI equipped eyewear soon. I do wonder if this will hurt or help Apple since people may be buying more smart glasses and less high-end iPhones? There are concerns about privacy and data collection. Currently Meta is facing a…Is the market too expensive to buy the dip this time?With the increasing cost of oil and the turmoil in Iran the markets did see a correction, which is a drop of 10% or more from the peak. People have become so accustomed to just buying the dips without knowing the valuations of what they’re buying, and many will probably do the same thing this time. Unfortunately, dip buying does not always work and given the current valuations, investors could be in for a bad surprise. Even with the recent pull back, the forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 sits at 20 and is still 20% higher than the 20-year average. So even with the dip you’re not buying companies on sale at these levels. Earnings can be adjusted and moved around with accounting rules, which means you’re probably paying more than you believe if you don’t understand accounting. Another indicator to look at is the forward price to free cash flow. This indicator takes out all the accounting craziness of how much some tech companies are spending on capital expenditures for artificial intelligence. Often, I find these two measures converge once the accounting catches up to…Consumer prices spike in March due to Iran warWhile it was in line with expectations, the headline CPI rose 3.3% compared to last year. This was the highest annual rate since April 2024, and it was substantially higher than February’s reading of 2.4%. The obvious reason for the increase was the change in oil prices. Energy showed an increase of 12.5%, largely due to a spike of 18.9% in gasoline prices. Month over month gasoline prices climbed 21.2%, which was the largest monthly increase since 1967 when the series was first published. Outside of the energy spike, prices did not look problematic considering core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw an increase of 2.6% on an annual basis. This was relatively in line with recent months and was 0.1% below the forecast. While the Fed may be able to look through these inflation numbers, if energy remains elevated the concern is it will start to impact core CPI as well. Companies will need to start raising prices to offset their higher expenses due to energy costs. For example, airline fares, which rose…Financial Planning: Reporting a Backdoor Roth IRANormally when income is above $236k for joint filers or $150k for single filers, the ability to make Roth IRA contributions is phased out. A backdoor Roth IRA is a strategy that allows high-income taxpayers to fund Roth IRAs, but it needs to be done correctly. It is a two-step process that involves making a traditional IRA contribution and then converting that contribution into a Roth IRA. This can only be done if the account holder does not have any other pre-tax IRAs. When the initial contribution is made to the traditional IRA, it needs to be reported as a non-deductible contribution. When the funds are…Companies Discussed: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), RH (RH) & Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

How much could inflation increase because of surging oil prices?It is hard to know exactly how much the increase will be, but we do know it will be increasing because since the Iran war started February 28th, a barrel of oil has increased from around $70 a barrel to around $100 a barrel depending on the day. Economists estimate that the March CPI inflation number could be around 3.4% and may hit 4% in April. If the conflict continues through summer and into the fall, we could see inflation hit 5%. While this is a possibility, fortunately, it does not appear that will happen. One would have to go back 20 years to see this type of rapid increase in gas prices. The Fed has been trying for five years to get inflation down to 2% with no success, and it does not appear that it will happen this year…You may finally be able to invest in SpaceX!Bloomberg and CNBC’s David Faber reported that SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission, also known as the SEC. It’s estimated the company could see a listing around June and that it is seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would lead to a record public offering. Don’t forget that SpaceX merged with Musk’s X AI, which also owns X and used to be Twitter, back in February. At that time the combined entity was valued at $1.25 trillion. Following a SpaceX IPO, Musk will become the first person to sit atop two separate trillion-dollar public companies. This IPO would…Maybe the labor market isn’t as bad as people thinkComing off a weak February report where payrolls declined by 133k, March showed a nice increase of 178k jobs. Part of the volatility was due to a strike at Kaiser that led to job losses in February, but then a surge of 76k jobs in the health care space in March. Health care continues to be the driving force for the labor market, but construction was strong in the month as the sector added 26k jobs and transportation and warehousing saw a nice increase of 21k jobs. The government sector continues to weigh negatively on the headline number as federal government employment declined by…Financial Planning: Setting Up 2026 Tax PaymentsWith Tax Day approaching, it’s important to think not just about your 2025 tax return, but also about planning for 2026. In the U.S., taxes must be paid throughout the year either through withholding or quarterly estimated payments, and while your 2025 balance is due April 15, the first estimated tax payment for 2026 is also due on that same day. This matters especially for income like interest, dividends, capital gains, business income, and rental income, which typically don’t have automatic withholding and therefore require estimated payments. If you don’t pay enough during the year, the IRS will charge both interest and underpayment penalties on the shortfall. To avoid interest and penalties, you generally need to pay at least 90% of your current-year tax, 100% of last year’s tax, or 110% of last year’s tax if…Companies Discussed: Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Alcoa Corporation (AA) & Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)

Is the concern of stagflation putting downward pressure on bank stocks?The term stagflation was first used in 1965 by a British politician. A quick definition for an economy with stagflation is when there is slow economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. A scenario like that would put a strain on banks because as people lose their jobs one of the first things they stop paying on are consumer loans like credit cards and personal loans. Banks can also get squeezed because they may have locked in long-term loans at lower rates and because of high inflation, the Federal Reserve could increase short-term interest rates, which would compress margins. The banks also need meet certain liquidity requirements, which could hurt margins even more. On the bright side, this could be a buying opportunity to invest in banks…Meta and YouTube get screwed in courtI was very disappointed to see that a 20-year-old woman, who won in a California court, is set to receive a total of $6 million from Meta and YouTube. Her claim was she was addicted to social media, and it dominated her life for years, which caused mental health issues like anxiety and depression. I’m really getting tired of the legal system in California and the theatrics played by attorneys such as her attorney having a jar of 415 M&M’s saying each M&M represented $1 billion of the near $400 billion in total stockholder equity when looking at Alphabets value. He began to remove one M&M at a time and demonstrated how taking out a few M&Ms did not change the weight of the jar. My feeling is this attorney should go to Hollywood and try to get an acting job. It is disappointing to see how no one wants to take accountability for their actions any longer. They want to blame somebody else and not take responsibility for the fact that she uploaded more than 200 YouTube videos before the age of 10 and had 15 Instagram accounts before she was 15. I do have to ask…Will higher gas prices hurt strong US car sales?Current US car sales are around 16 million on an annual basis, which is down from 2019 when they were 17 million, but overall, they are still very healthy. The car business has changed from low margin vehicles to more luxury vehicles with higher profit margins and the average price on a new car is now over $50,000. The car buyers themselves have changed with the average new vehicle buyer around 50 years old. This is seven years older than in the year 2000. It’s no surprise, but because of the higher prices for cars, people earning over $150,000 a year account for 42% of the sales. Six years ago, it was just 29%. It was also reported that buyers who… Should crypto companies be allowed into the United States banking system?Unfortunately, Jonathan Gould, who is Comptroller of the Currency and is one of the country’s most powerful bank regulators, believes so. He thinks it’s a good idea to let firms like Ripple, Crypto.com and others in this area to become a trust bank. A trust bank is a little bit different than a normal bank because they don’t take deposits or make loans and instead offer other services like safekeeping of various assets. An example of trust banks would be insurance companies and payroll processors. My concern is what the average consumer may think as they could believe that because it’s a trust bank it is automatically insured by the federal government. This is a gray area as some trust banks can have insurance from the federal government, but they do not insure investments like stocks bonds, and cryptocurrencies. The Bank Policy Institute and other banks are against this because it is unclear what these crypto companies would do with bank charters. There is talk that some applicants may want access to the Federal Reserve payment rails, which would allow…Companies Discussed: DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) & CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Bank stocks feel the pain from private creditYou may have noticed that the bank stock index is down about 10%, which is more than the S&P 500’s decline of 3% at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that banks made roughly 10% of their total loans to non-depository financial institutions known as NDFIs, which includes private credit companies. It’s also estimated that these types of loans in the past three years have grown from $1.1 trillion to $1.9 trillion. The banking stocks may struggle for a few more months, but the good news is a recent study from the Office of Financial Research found that private funds and BDCs, which are Business Development Corporations, use lines of credit and currently they’ve only used about 50 to 65% of the buying capacity. The tough decision for the banks is do they cut off the line of credit…The big business of youth sportsI remember growing up and wishing for a baseball or maybe a football for Christmas so I could go down the street and play with my friends. Fast forward to today and youth sports are a multibillion-dollar business for companies. The average American family spends $1,000 on sports per child. Whenever there’s an opportunity someone or some business will step in and fill the void, Dick’s Sporting Goods has helped fill this void. Dicks opened back in the 1940s by a gentleman name Richard Stack, who had the nickname, Dick. His grandmother had $300 cash …It’s not just oil; aluminum prices have been surging!With the recent war in Iran, the rising price of oil and gasoline has been quite noticeable and has been discussed heavily by various news outlets. One lesser-known impact from the difficulties within the Strait of Hormuz is the price for aluminum has surged. People may not notice it since they don’t necessarily buy aluminum directly, but if the problem persists you could see price increases for your favorite six pack of soda or beer. Outside of packaging, aluminum is also used across electronics, construction, transportation, and solar panels. In 2025, the…Surprise, US oil inventories actually increasedI know what you’re thinking with the price of gasoline and oil increasing, oil inventories must be declining. Fortunately, that is not the case. If the inventories were decreasing the price of oil and gasoline at the pump would probably be even higher. For the week ending March 13th, crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels. This does not include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Everyone including the analysts thought for sure there would be a decline and the estimate was for a decline of around 40,000 barrels. Gasoline…Financial Planning: How to Create a Tax-Free Account for a ChildA powerful way to build tax-free wealth for a child is by strategically using the kiddie tax rules with investments that generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains. Under the kiddie tax, the first $1,350 of investment income is tax-free, and the next $1,350 is taxed at the child’s rate, which for capital gains and qualified dividends is typically also 0%. This means a child can receive up to $2,700 of investment income each year with no federal tax. Income above …Companies Discussed: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG), Public Storage (PSA) & The Campbell's Company (CPB)

Private credit woes continue!Investors continue to worry about the private credit market and this week has been filled with troubling news from the sector. According to the Financial Times, Glendon Capital Management said private credit funds run by Blue Owl (OWL) and several of its peers may have understated loss rates in their portfolios, suggesting actual losses could be higher than reported. This has led to concerns around the “true valuation” of these assets. This wouldn’t be surprising given the little clarity that we have for these loans. We also saw JPMorgan Chase take a conservative approach and mark down the value of some…Prediction markets are hitting college campuses to find gamblersPrediction markets have something FanDuel and DraftKings don’t, access to the 18 to 21-year-olds in college. Gambling is generally limited to adults 21 years or older, however, prediction markets that are run by companies like Polymarket and Kalshi are trades that are regulated as financial derivative contracts by the Commodity Future Trading Commission. This allows anyone 18 years or older to gamble using these prediction markets. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are hitting college campuses across the country and throwing cash around to lure in 18 to 21-year-old students to place bets via the prediction market. They are… Don’t pay attention to the price of oil on a daily basisI say that because there’s so much speculation out there and likely the information you receive on the price of oil is useless when you look forward to a few months and maybe even just a few weeks from now. Last week the price of oil surged around 35%, but on Monday after comments from the President that this will not last long in the Middle East, crude oil fell back down to under $85 a barrel. Why is this volatility in the price of oil happening? Roughly 20% of global oil consumption is exported through the Strait of Hormuz and about 20% liquefied natural gas exports worldwide also pass through the narrow waterway. The United States over the years along with other allies have spent billions of dollars making sure…The International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees to historic oil releaseThe IEA, which is an organization of 32 member countries primarily with advanced economies in Europe, North America and northeast Asia, agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Currently, IEA members hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation. While the strategic release is helpful, it is only a temporary fix considering nearly 20 million barrels passes through the Strait of Hormuz per day in normal times. China also could help with oil prices if it reduced its purchasing or released some of its stockpile. Ahead of the war China was…Surprise.... Gen Z is going to the mall for in-person shopping!You may be hearing that younger people don’t go to the mall any longer, but that is not true, it’s just a little bit different than when people went 20 years ago. Gen Z, the generation consisting of 14 to 29-year-olds, shops at the mall but first they check online sources like Instagram and TikTok to see what's in style. According to Nielsen IQ, the global annual retail spending by this generation is expected to be over $12 trillion by 2030. Shoppers between 18 and 24 years old made 62% of their general merchandise purchases in stores last year, but shoppers 25 and older made just 52% of their purchases in person. Some of the reasons given for the in-person preference was that Gen Z does not like to pay the shipping fees along with common sense things like they want to touch the item and see it in person especially if it’s clothing, they want to see how it looks on them. Malls understand this, and…Companies Discussed: The Gap, Inc. (GAP), StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) & Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

Other risks in the market you should be aware of  Since Covid, speculative investments have continued to rise in popularity. We have talked a lot about the risks we see in margin, crypto, private investments, and prediction markets, but now...Ivy League Endowments have dismal returns because of private equity  I was concerned when I saw the Ivy League schools, who I thought would be the smartest people in the room, began investing in private equity a few years ago. The results are now in, and...Is AI impacting the labor market?  The headlines look concerning as February payrolls showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in the month. This was well below the estimate which was looking for ...Financial Planning: Beware of the Tax Hike Above $505k  For married couples with adjusted gross incomes between $505,000 and $606,333, there’s a hidden tax increase caused by...Companies Discussed: Planet Fitness(PLNT), Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY), Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), Salesforce (CRM)

These massive AI deals look concerningThe numbers are exciting when companies like Meta or OpenAI announce they'll be purchasing billions of dollars in chips or computing power from companies like Nvidia or AMD, but there always seems to be a catch. Most recently, Meta announced that it entered a multiyear deal with AMD to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of the company’s graphics processing units for artificial intelligence data centers and includes use of AI-optimized central processing units, or CPUs. This deal comes a week after Meta committed to using millions of Nvidia's processors to power its AI expansion. While I have my concerns with all the money Meta is spending, my bigger concern with this new AMD deal is the use of stock warrants. Full details for the deal weren't announced, but we did see the deal includes a…2025 trade deficit looks deceivingSome people are saying that the tariffs didn't work because the trade deficit in 2025 only fell to about $901.5 B from just over $903 B in 2024. However, if you break down the numbers quarter by a quarter, it tells a different story. The first three months of the year, there was a $400 billion trade deficit, but each quarter after that it began to decline. In the second quarter, it fell drastically to $180 billion. There wasn't much of a change in the third quarter with a slight drop to $175 billion and then in the fourth quarter there was a drop to $145 billion. We try to explain to people that the US economy at $31.5 trillion is like a big ship in the ocean; it cannot turn quickly. If people would be patient, I think they would see by the end of 2026 there would be…Why is automobile insurance so high?Your first thought may be the insurance companies are gouging their customers just to make big profits. First off, insurance companies are generally public companies that have shareholders who would not be investing in their company if it was losing money and not paying dividends. The high cost of premiums is not the insurance companies' fault as in recent years things have really changed. Over the past five years, physical damage costs have increased by 47%. This is because of the higher price of cars and all the extra bells and whistles that add up when there’s damage to a vehicle. Bodily injury claims are up 52% over the last five years because of the vast amount of new personal injury lawyers who have come on the scene and are pushing for higher settlements, even on small fender benders. Around 95% of these cases are settled and do not go to court. Many of your less reputable attorneys know this and hold the…Financial Planning: What Is the Goal of Tax Planning?Most people would assume the goal of tax planning is simply to reduce taxes, or even to reduce lifetime taxes, but that should not be the focus. The true purpose of tax planning is to increase the level of after-tax income by intentionally managing assets and income sources. If the objective were merely to pay less in taxes, the solution would be simple: stop earning money. But earning less…Companies Discussed: Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) & Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)

Is investing in Google’s century bond a good idea?If you don’t want to read any further, and just want the basic answer, for investors it’s a terrible idea. On the other hand, for companies, universities or even governments, issuing a century bond is a great way to lock in low rates for a hundred years. As I said for investors, it’s a terrible idea, here is an example. In 2020, the Austrian government issued a century bond that locked in a yield of 0.85%, which was a great…Big expenses are coming for companies that invest in AIWe have talked about this in the past couple years and now after the companies spent roughly $500 billion in 2025 it's estimated they will spend another $3 trillion by the end of the decade. As the companies spend more money on data centers, chips and other items for AI, their depreciation expense will rise each year, which will reduce their income. The big tech companies are kind of sneaky currently with depreciation. Many companies like railroads and other companies report depreciation as a standalone operating…Don’t blame the restaurant or the grocery store for the high price of meatI’m sure you’ve noticed that if you want to go out and have a good steak, you’re probably going to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $45-$50, depending on the restaurant and how big the steak is. There’s a big shortage of cattle in the United States and the numbers are staggering. In January, there were only 86.2 million cattle and calves, which is down from a peak of more than 130 million in the mid 1970s. The number of people in the United States far surpasses the number of cattle and supply/demand being what it is, it is pushing the price of cattle to higher levels. The 86.2 million heads of cattle may sound like a lot, but when you look at the numbers it is the smallest herd since 1951 and that’s when the…Financial Planning: Do Commission-Free Annuities Make Annuities More Attractive?One of the primary downsides of annuities has always been the layers of fees that drag on returns, along with upfront commissions that create conflicts of interest in how they’re recommended. Commission-free annuities attempt to address these concerns by eliminating the embedded commission and often lowering internal product expenses, which in theory should improve transparency and net performance. However…Companies Discussed: Mattel, Inc. (MAT), DraftKings Inc. (DKNG), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)

Should you invest by following when insiders buy?It sounds like it’s an easy thing. Just do what the insiders do because they obviously know the company well and if the stock were to drop in value and the insiders commit to purchasing shares, it must be a smart investment. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy and there are many other factors involved. Data also shows that longer term it may not even matter. Over my 45 years of doing this, I have even seen sometimes where they borrow money from the company to actually do the purchase of the shares. With that said when they are committing their own money, does the stock…It's not a stock market, it's a market of stocksI have often made this claim when things get crazy in the stock market. What I mean by this is you don't just have to buy the stock market and instead can look for good companies within the market. The reason this is so important to understand is because individual stocks can still do well even when the broader market struggles, especially when the market gets heavily concentrated like it is today. I often reference the tech boom and bust as an example investors should study and in times like this, I believe it is even more applicable. From the tech-stock peak on March 27th, 2000, through…Inflation report comes in better than expectedThe Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed headline January inflation was just 2.4%. This compares to an estimate of 2.5% and last month's reading of 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in line with expectations at 2.5%, but it was also lower than December's reading of 2.6% and the smallest increase since March 2021 when it climbed by just 1.6%. Food prices put a little pressure on the headline number as they were up 2.9% compared to last year. Most of this came from food away from home where prices were up 4.0%. Food at home on the other hand only saw prices climb 2.1%. Energy prices helped the headline number as prices declined 0.1% as gasoline prices fell 7.3%. Offsetting this benefit was utility prices where electricity was…Financial Planning: You May Be Receiving a Larger RefundNew tax rules could help many filers see larger refunds this year, with some benefits happening automatically and others requiring careful reporting. The standard deduction increased for everyone, with taxpayers aged 65 or older receiving an additional $6,000 boost. The state and local tax (SALT) cap rose from $10,000 to $40,000 for those who itemize, and the child tax credit increased by $200, from $2,000 to $2,200. These automatic changes may lower tax liability without any special reporting. However, other deductions such as those…Companies Discussed: C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Cushman & Wakefield Limited (CWK), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) & PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)

Has the US dollar become too weak?It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend…18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern?The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go…Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market?From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas… Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement?Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value… Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)

China’s population is decliningLast year's birth numbers for China recently came out and it was the lowest since 1949. What was the population of China in 1949? It was only around 540 million people so percentage wise it was a much higher birth rate than the 7.9 million we saw in 2025. With over 1.4 billion people and about 11 million people dying every year in China, it will take a long time to have results of a large declining population, but he problem with a lower birth rate than death rate is that it has major changes for an economy. China has a life…Another history lesson shows why we don’t overpay for hot stocksWe know it's exciting to be in the next hot thing on Wall Street, but that was the same way people felt just a few years ago with hot software companies like Salesforce, Adobe and ServiceNow. Looking back, many of these once hot companies now have seen very disappointing five-year returns. As an example, Salesforce is only up around one percent over the last five years, and Adobe has actually…Gold has done well, but silver has surged! Should you buy it now?Silver is now up over 250% in the last year alone as it has become immensely popular with retail investors. Many investors are excited to point out that silver has a strong use case as an industrial metal. It’s a key component in electronics, including circuit boards, switches, and solar panels thanks to the fact that it’s an excellent conductor of electricity. Thanks to increasing demand for areas such electric vehicles and growing electricity needs, largely due to the AI push, industrial use cases now account for…Financial Planning: Best Accounts for Kids and GrandkidsWhen saving for kids and grandkids, the “best” account depends on the tradeoff between tax benefits, flexibility, and control. 529 plans offer tax-free growth and withdrawals for qualified education expenses, but non-qualified withdrawals trigger federal and state taxes and penalties on earnings. Up to $35,000 can be rolled into a Roth IRA over time without federal taxes or penalties, though some states, including California, still impose taxes and penalties. Roth IRAs provide…Companies Discussed: McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) & Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)

Looks like it is over for the Mag Seven stocksThe name Magnificent Seven came out in 2023 by a strategist from Bank of America named Michael Harnett. The idea is the name came from a classic western movie featuring seven heroic gunfighters and their push to save a small town. But just like other hot themes like the Nifty 50 back in the 60s and BRIC where you had to be invested in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, it looks like the Mag Seven glory days are over. In 2025, only…Is using part of your 401(k) for a down payment on your home a good idea?The President is trying very hard to stimulate the housing market and allow younger people to buy their first home. One idea that has been tossed around is allowing people to use their 401(k) for a down payment. People can currently borrow from their 401(k) and I often hear uninformed people say it’s a great thing because you get to pay yourself the interest. Briefly, it is not a great idea because those "interest" payments don't account for the negative impact of the opportunity for what those funds could have grown at. You also don't get a tax deduction when…AI will create jobs that have not even been imagined yetThere are jobs that are starting to be seen and developed as AI becomes more involved in business. One example is someone has to make sure that the systems are kept up-to-date and function properly. There’s also going to be people that have to understand the technology thoroughly and then translate the output, so managers, judges, regulators, or anyone else that is using it understands the answer. Experts will have to understand such things as self-driving vehicles and how the…Financial Planning: Start Social Security Early to Invest?When evaluating when to start Social Security, there are generally two schools of thought. Either collect early at age 62 to invest the funds or wait until age 70 for a larger monthly benefit. Proponents of waiting argue that the age-70 benefit is roughly 77% higher than collecting at 62 and that deferring protects against longevity risk. Regular people and some financial advisors alike believe this is the superior strategy. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal takes this stance, stating that many retirees will…Companies Discussed: Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) & GameStop Corp. (GME)

There are many headwinds for short term interest rates to drop in 2026It is no secret that the President wants our interest rates to drop dramatically to improve the economy, which as a sidenote is really not that bad. However, even though he gets to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman, that doesn’t guarantee lower short-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve Chairman's term ends May 15th, which means a new chairman will be appointed by the President. But the Chairman running the Federal Reserve, no matter who they are, does not make a sole decision on interest rates. It is done as a vote from all members, and it takes a majority of the 7 members to move interest rates up or down. Other factors include Mr. Powell can stay until January 2028, when his term as governor expires. This means a…The tariffs seem to be working with the October trade deficit at the lowest level since 2009The October trade deficit was only $29.4 billion, which is far better than the expected deficit of $58.4 billion. Not only was it almost half the expected amount; but it was also the lowest deficit going back 16 years to 2009. The low trade deficit was due to imports falling to $331.4 billion, but exports also increased to $302 billion. Exports…Is the 10% credit card interest cap a good idea?At first glance, the average person is going to say yes that is great because current credit card rates around 23 to 24% are ridiculous. However, when you dig deeper into credit cards and how they work, people have to realize the risks for defaults and late payments are rather high. Banks that issue credit cards are in business to make a profit for their shareholders and if there’s no profit to be earned, then there’s no point in a business offering that service. The current default rate on credit cards is about 3%, which means banks have to write off the entire balance of whatever that person owed. The higher default rates are seen in ZIP Codes with lower incomes and also for younger borrows who got in over their head. If the 10% cap on credit…Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the New Auto Loan Interest Deduction?The new auto loan interest deduction created by the July 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 per year of interest paid on a qualified auto loan during tax years 2025 through 2028. This is an above-the-line deduction, meaning it is available even if the standard deduction is taken. To qualify, the loan must be an auto loan for a new vehicle that had final assembly in the United States purchased in 2025 through 2028. Leases, personal loans, and cars purchased before…Companies Discussed: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & The Boeing Company (BA)

What the recent changes in Venezuela means for consumersWithout getting into the benefits of less drugs coming into our country, there are economic benefits from the large amount of oil reserves that are in the ground of Venezuela. The current daily consumption worldwide of oil is about 100 million barrels per day. Venezuela has in their ground over 300 billion barrels of oil. That alone would keep the world supplied for over eight years. Venezuela has the highest proven reserves in the world even above Saudi Arabia. Venezuela accounts for about 20% of the world supply of oil. Venezuela has four times the reserves compared to the US, yet in 2024 the United States produced over 13 million barrels per day compared to Venezuela producing under 1 million barrels per day. There is talk that the big oil…It’s a new year, is it time to hire or change to a new investment advisor?With the new year, investors should take a look to see how their investments have done and how their investment advisor has been working with them. The beginning of the year is a fresh start, so it’s time to see what your percentage return was on your portfolio in 2025 and evaluate if your advisor kept you updated and gave you the customer service you need like returning your phone calls in a reasonable timeframe. You don’t want to jump from the pan into the fire, so when you’re looking for a new investment advisor, be sure that the company and the advisor are full fiduciaries, which means they must do what is best for you, not what is best for…The labor market ends the year on a soft noteThis jobs report was special considering it was the first on time report in 3 months, but I'd say the data was lackluster. Nonfarm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, which was short of the estimate of 76,000. The two prior months also saw downward revisions that totaled 76,000. For the full year, payroll employment grew by 584,000, which equates to a monthly average of about 49,000 new jobs per month. This was less than 2024's gain of 2 million jobs or about 168,000 per month and actually registers as the worst payroll growth outside of a recession since 2003. While this all might sound troubling, it is important to remember that changes to government jobs had a large impact on the data. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment fell by 277,000 jobs. This obviously created a huge headwind for headline payroll growth. With that said, the labor market was still in a slower growth environment, and I continue to believe that will be the case as we move forward considering the…Financial Planning: Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage RatesThe U.S. government’s announcement of a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already pushing 30-year mortgage rates below 6%, creating…Companies Discussed: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) & Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Financial Outlook on 2026Companies Discussed: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Lennar Corporation (LEN)

How did China’s trade surplus hit $1.1 trillion this year?The United States purchased around $450 billion of manufactured goods from China in 2024, but trade has dropped between the two countries so how did China have a record surplus of $1.1 trillion through November 2025? The current tariff on goods imported from China is around 37% according to the Tax Policy Center and imported goods from China have dropped dramatically. China has been able to increase their exports to…Finally some data on the labor market!With the government shutdown, a lot of the data for the labor market was delayed. We finally got employment figures for October and November, and they were interesting to say the least! To start, the October numbers looked horrific considering payrolls declined by 105,000 in the month. While this sounds troubling, it's important to remember all of those government workers on severance were still counted as employed until the severance ended. This led to a decline in government payrolls of 162,000 in the month of October. Losses in government payrolls continued in…Inflation report shows great progress, can it be trusted?Headline November CPI came in at 2.7% compared to last November, which was well below the estimate of 3.1% and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed an increase of just 2.6%. This was the lowest reading for core CPI since March 2021 when the increase was just 1.6% and it also came in well below the estimate of 3.0%. Some areas in the report remained challenging particularly in food, where we saw uncooked beef…Want to become a millionaire? Invest in your 401(k)!There are more and more people with $1 million or more in a 401(k) as companies like Fidelity and Vanguard are seeing record numbers of people with accounts of more than $1 million. Fidelity said they hit the highest level ever when it comes to 401k millionaires with about 3.2% of their 401k’s or 654,000 accounts now over $1 million. Vanguard also had similar numbers for 401k millionaires. Becoming a 401k millionaire is not a get rich quick scheme, but it's a proven way to build your wealth long-term with proper investment choices. It is estimated that roughly 86% of those with $1 million plus in their 401k are 50 or older. It is also estimated that…Financial Planning: Taking Advantage of Itemized Deductions Before December 31stWith the repeal of the $10,000 SALT deduction limit, many taxpayers may once again benefit from itemizing deductions rather than taking the standard deduction, and there are practical steps that can be taken before year-end to further enhance that benefit. The SALT deduction includes both state income taxes and property taxes, and because individuals are cash-basis taxpayers, deductions are generally taken when expenses are paid rather than when they are due, meaning that paying certain obligations before December 31st can shift future deductions into the current tax year. In California and many other states, property taxes are paid in two installments, with the first due in December and the second due in April. If the April installment is…Companies Discussed: Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) & Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Another lawsuit against generative AI company Perplexity for copyright infringementThe New York Times has had enough, and they have filed a lawsuit in a New York Federal court. In October 2024, the Times sent a notice to stop accessing and using their content and then followed up with another notice this past July. Perplexity continues to ignore the warnings and a spokesperson for the company, Jesse Dwyer, said publishers have been suing new tech companies for a hundred years starting with radio, TV, the Internet and social media, but that has never worked out for them. I think this is a little bit different since AI pretty much takes the content directly from the…Just when Apple corrected their major problems, it looks like there’s a management drainApple did a great job handling the proposed tariffs on its products, which would have devastated the company. Also, in court they managed to keep the $20 billion a year they receive from Google. But now, they seem to be fighting a management exit by some of their top executives. Over the last couple of weeks, it was announced that both their General Council and Head of Policy will be retiring next year. Another major concern was also announced in that timeframe that their Head of Artificial Intelligence and Strategy is also going to retire. Making matters worse, their Chief Operating Officer said he’ll be retiring in July of next year. Don’t worry about CEO Tim Cook being age 65, he said he is not considering retirement, and people at the company said he is not slowing down at all. It was also recently announced that Meta…It’s time to put some commercial property into your portfolioYou may be questioning why would I put real estate like commercial property in my portfolio that over the last five years or so has had a return of maybe 7% versus stocks that have done much better? The simple answer is the basic investing principle of buying low and selling high. Looking forward, I believe commercial real estate over the next five years should get better returns than artificial intelligence considering the fact that it is very pricey. Data from MSCI revealed that year to date large investors have purchased $4.6 billion more US commercial property than they sold. That is the first time that has happened in three years, and deal activity is still low compared to history. US commercial real estate values are off from the peak in 2022 and are now down on average around 17%. Looking just at commercial offices, there is a better…Financial Planning: The Benefits of Capital Gain HarvestingWhile many investors focus on tax-loss harvesting, harvesting capital gains can be just as valuable especially when you fall into the 0% long-term capital gains bracket. For example, in 2025 a married couple filing jointly can have taxable income up to $96,700 and still pay 0% on long-term gains. Because the standard deduction ranges from $31,500 to $46,700, and itemized deductions can be even larger, a household’s total gross income can potentially exceed $150,000 while still remaining in the 0% capital gains bracket. If an investor wants to keep…Companies Discussed: The Brink's Company (BCO), PVH Corp. (PVH), Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) & The Kroger Co. (KR)

We have gone through four industrial revolutions in the US, why does the AI revolution scare us the most?Industrial revolutions are nothing new in the United States as we have had four including the current one we are in. The first one came in the mid-18th century when changes came for waterpower, steam engines, and textile manufacturing. The second industrial revolution was in the mid-19th century when steel became a big factor along with electricity and mass production. We also saw transportation…Bitcoin holder Strategy should be getting nervous about the price of BitcoinThe public company Strategy, which used to be known as MicroStrategy and trades under the symbol MSTR, should be getting nervous about its 650,000 Bitcoins that are worth around $56 billion depending on the day. The problem is the company has about $8 billion of convertible bonds outstanding that require interest payments and about $7.6 billion of perpetual preferred stock that also pays dividends. The cost to pay the interest and these dividends is about $780 million annually and since all the company’s assets are essentially in Bitcoin, they don’t receive any interest or profits from that…Holiday shopping hits record levels!We continue to see conflicting data when it comes to the health of the consumer. They continue to say they don't feel good, but the hard data and the actual numbers remain quite strong. In a positive note from the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That is the largest turnout since data for the five-day period started being collected in 2017, and it easily tops last year's level of 197 million shoppers. Expectations for the period were also quite low considering the estimate was for just 186.9 million shoppers. While online shoppers increased 9% year over year to 134.9 million people, in-store shoppers still saw a nice increase of 3% to 129.5 million people. Adobe also provided sales data for the five-day period that indicated consumers spent $44.2 billion online, which was a 7.7% year-over-year jump. Black Friday in particular…Financial Planning: When Tax-Loss Harvesting Makes Sense and When It Doesn’tTax-loss harvesting is often promoted as a smart tax-saving strategy, but investors should understand its pitfalls before hitting the sell button. Selling a position at a loss may reduce taxes today, but it could also mean missing a rebound in that investment potentially costing more in lost gains than the tax benefit received. For example, if an investor buys a stock for $50,000 and harvests a $5,000 loss when the investment drops to $45,000, and they are in a 24.3% combined tax bracket (15% federal + 9.3% state), the tax savings is just over $1,200. That means the investment only needs to rise 2.7% to wipe out the benefit of harvesting, something that could easily occur during the required 30-day wash-sale waiting period. Even if the position doesn’t rebound, repurchasing after 31 days locks in a lower cost basis, potentially increasing future taxable gains possibly in a higher tax bracket. Many investors…Companies Discussed: Weyerhaeuser Company (WY), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR) & Valvoline Inc. (VVV)

Fast food restaurants like Wendy’s are experiencing a slowdown in businessThe fast-food restaurant Wendy’s is planning on closing hundreds of locations throughout next year because they continue to see a slowdown in spending from their customers. They said most of their low-income consumers are cutting spending and making fewer trips with smaller purchases at the restaurants. Wendy’s increased prices after the pandemic at a higher rate than grocery stores and now other fast-food restaurants have begun to add value menus to keep customers coming back, but Wendy’s has held firm and not created any values for their…The affordability index for people buying a home is the worst in 50 yearsPeople may be excited about buying a home because mortgage rates are around the lowest they’ve been in over a year, but the affordability of a home is still far out of reach for many. The reason for this, and we have talked about this for the last few years, is that the increase in the price of homes has far outpaced the increase in people’s income. The 50-year average for a price-to-income ratio is around four times, and it reached a low in 1999 of around 3.6 times. But with the rapid increase of homes over the last few years, the price to income ratio has climbed to slightly over five times. Also not helping are the increases in home insurance costs and property taxes. Back in the summer of…The brokerage firm Robinhood looks more like a gambling platform than a brokerage firmRobinhood initially went public at $38 a share in 2023 and the stock then fell to under $10 a share. It has recovered nicely since then as it’s now trading around $110 a share. What has caused this shift and the huge increase in the stock price? One big reason is that the company has really allowed major speculation for their investors. Starting off with crypto, they have allowed people to buy coins like BONK, Dogwifhat and Pudgy Penguins. Just when you think there’s no way they could come up with anything more speculative, surprise; they have come up with an investment known as prediction markets and event trading. Somehow the regulators have let this slide or maybe since government agencies don’t move that quickly, it just has not been addressed yet. It appears for investors on their app that you can predict what the outcome will be of a football game, politics, contracts over economics, even if aliens…Financial Planning: The Real Cost of Employer Coverage vs. MedicareWhen reaching age 65, sometimes there is the option to join Medicare or stay with an employer health insurance plan. This is most common when a spouse retires after age 65 and they have the ability to join their spouse’s work plan. When comparing the cost of coverage, there is a key difference in how each affects your tax bill. Premiums paid through payroll for employer-sponsored health insurance are pre-tax, meaning you avoid federal, state, and payroll taxes such as the 6.2% Social Security, 1.45% Medicare, and 1.2% CA SDI tax in California. This is different from a 401(k) for example…Companies Discussed: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB), Maplebear Inc. (CART)

No surprise to me that there’s a glut of apartments on the market I saw the potential for this oversupply happening in San Diego a couple of years ago. It seemed anywhere you drove within a short distance you would see the construction of new apartment buildings. It is not just here in San Diego though as the glut of apartments is happening around the country. With the dynamics of supply and demand, if you’re looking... Are the large hyperscale companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet inflating earnings? Michael Burry, who was made famous by "The Big Short", made the claim that some of America's largest tech companies are using aggressive accounting to pad their profits. He believes... China is no longer just manufacturing; they are also beginning to innovate. For many years innovation was generally done here in the US, and we would have the products manufactured in China. China is no longer happy with this arrangement, and its research and development spending is up nearly 9% a year well above the 1.7% here in United States. In 2024, China filed 70,160 international patents which was about 16,000 more than the 54,087 patents the US filed. China also seems to be more advanced in robotics installing 300,000 industrial robots in 2024 compared with roughly 30,000 industrial robots in the US. It also has been noted that... Financial Planning: 50-year Mortgage: Helpful or Hurtful?A 50-year mortgage is being discussed as a way to reduce monthly payments and help with affordability, offering borrowers slightly lower costs that could help them qualify for homes otherwise out of reach. Critics argue ... Companies Discussed: Axon Enterprise (AXON), Zoetis Inc. (ZTS), Elf Beauty Inc. (ELF),Sweetgreen Inc. (SG)

Apple CEO Tim Cook pulled three rabbits out of a hatPulling a rabbit out of a hat is a pretty good trick, but pulling three out of a hat is nothing short of a miracle. In the spring of this year, Apple stock fell below $170 a share as it was faced with enormous tariffs on iPhones, the potential loss of a $20 billion per year payment from Google, and sales for iPhones seemed to be stuck in the mud. To handle the tariff situation, Tim Cook promised US investments of $600 billion over four years. This was not bringing iPhone production back to the US, but it was an investment of making AI servers in Texas and offering manufacturing training for US businesses in Detroit. Apple also announced a $2.5 billion commitment to make iPhone cover glass in Kentucky with Corning and a $500 million partnership to produce rare earth magnets in the United States. After this investment pledge, the President said Apple would be exempt from tariffs on imported electronics. To save the $20 billion yearly payment from Google, Mr. Cook sent Apple’s senior vice president in charge of services Eddie Cue to testify. He convinced...In 2026 you could be buying stocks on the Texas Stock ExchangeBusinesses and CEOs are getting tired of the high taxes in New York City and the regulations that are costing them billions of dollars. Texas, which is known as a pro business state will be opening in Dallas the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE). This has already been approved by the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). It is expected to see operations open...Public companies that bought Bitcoin are getting worriedThe craziness of public companies riding the Bitcoin wave as it increased in value caused many of their stocks to jump even more than the increase in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. But now that Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high slightly over $126,000 and has dropped about 20%, those public companies that bought Bitcoin are seeing their stocks drop far greater than the decline in Bitcoin. Roughly 25% of the public companies that bought Bitcoin as a treasury strategy now have a market cap valuation below the total value of their Bitcoin value. What companies were doing was they would invest in Bitcoin then sell their shares at a premium as their stock increased in value and then used those proceeds to turn around and buy more Bitcoin. Now that Bitcoin has declined, there’s no reason for crypto buyers or traders to buy those stocks and instead it looks like they have been selling them. As an example, CleanCore Solutions is now down over 80% since investing in Dogecoin and even a larger player like Japan’s Metaplanet, which is a top five publicly listed...Financial Planning: The Conflict of Interest around Universal Life InsuranceUniversal life insurance is often presented as a hybrid policy that combines features of term life and whole life, marketed for its perceived benefits of tax-deferred cash value growth and the potential for tax-free income through policy loans in addition to a permanent death benefit. However, realizing these benefits typically requires significant overfunding, meaning the policyholder must pay premiums well above the minimum needed to keep the policy in force. Universal life offers flexible premiums, but there are ongoing fees and costs of insurance, which increase with age, required to maintain coverage. Only premiums paid beyond those costs build cash value that can be invested. The problem is that agent commissions are usually based on the “target premium”—the minimum amount needed to keep the policy active, not the funding level required for it to perform as illustrated. This creates a conflict of interest, where many agents are incentivized to sell the policy but not to ensure it’s structured or funded properly. As a result...Companies Discussed: Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE), Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) & Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)

The big brokerage firms are fighting for your investment accountsOur investment advisory firm over the years has never been a favorite of the big brokerage firms because we generally only do three, maybe four trades on average per year. But the big brokerage firms are now acting like the casinos in Las Vegas and are doing everything they can to get you on their platform. They will give you all kinds of tools and seminars, so you’ll take higher risk and do more trading. In the meantime, they're downplaying the risk of trading. You see also like the casinos in Las Vegas, there are now stories of them giving away free rooms for the big players and they are giving you free software and free education on how to trade. Robinhood even invited 1000 people to Las Vegas and took them go kart racing and provided classes with their new trade platform. Schwab and Fidelity are doing similar types of events…Can Travis Kelce turn around Six Flags?If you’re not sure who Travis Kelce is, he is a tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs and engaged to the well-known singer Taylor Swift. Six Flags, which is a public company that trades under the symbol FUN, has received an investment of $200 million from the activist investment company JANA Partners. It was not disclosed how much investment Travis has of the $200 million, but he does like to invest in companies both public and private. He has investments in over 30 companies that include manufacturing, distribution, consumer goods, entertainment, and a beer company. He is pretty excited about his investment because as a kid he used to love the roller coasters, Dippin' Dots and him and his brother have great memories at Six Flags. He has suggested that they do a roller coaster with a 300 foot drop where riders feet dangle from beneath. Investing in Six Flags seems to be an uphill battle. Year to date the stock is down roughly 45%, the…Markets actually declined after the Fed rate cut On Wednesday, the Fed announced they would lower their benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4%. This marked the second consecutive cut of 0.25% and there is still one meeting left this year where we could see another rate cut. The keyword here is could and the lack of conviction around another cut is likely what spooked the market. Powell said a December rate cut isn’t a “foregone conclusion” and while recently appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran again dissented in favor of a 0.5% cut, there was also a hawkish dissent with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voting for no decrease. Schmid's vote and Powell's language was likely what sent the market lower after the announcement as many essentially had the December rate cut factored in as a sure thing. Powell also added that there is “a growing chorus” among the 19 Fed officials to “at least wait a cycle” before cutting again. This resulted in traders lowering the odds for a December cut to 67% from 90% the day prior. Given the lack of data and an economy that still appears to be in an alright position, I do…Financial Planning: When does a Solar System Make Sense?Buying a solar system generally makes the most sense if you use a lot of electricity and plan to stay in your home long term. Installing by the end of 2025 allows you to capture the 30% federal tax credit, which significantly shortens the payback period. If the system is financed with a mortgage or home equity line of credit (HELOC), the interest may be tax-deductible, allowing for little or no upfront cash outlay and after-tax loan payments that can be lower than the monthly electricity savings. Owned solar panels usually increase home value, though not always enough to fully offset the system’s cost, which is why longer-term ownership is important to recoup the investment. In California…Companies Discussed: The Coca-Cola Company (KO), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

Inflation report likely solidifies Fed rate cut this month The September Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed inflation climbed 3% year over year for both the headline and core numbers. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in better than both the estimate and the previous month's reading; both stood at 3.1%. It was a surprise to get this data with the government shutdown, but since it is used as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks by the Social Security Administration it was a rare economic point in an otherwise quiet period. Energy, which provided such a benefit to the headline number for many months, has started to reverse course as it climbed 2.8% compared to last year. Gasoline was a small benefit as it was down 0.5%, but energy services climbed 6.4% thanks to an increase of 5.1% for electricity and an increase of 11.7% for utility...The bank earnings from last week had some surprising undertones.Overall, the third-quarter report from the big banks showed things are pretty much going along OK. But then a couple of the big banks brought up the issue of private credit and some bankruptcies that led to write-downs. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that even though he said he probably should not say it that "if you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Some smaller financial institutions like Zions Bancorp and Alliance Bancorp took a $50 million charge and $100 million charge respectively due to potentially fraudulent loans. The issue here is commercial banks have been...Risky investing behavior continues to amaze me!Many people will point out that we have missed the boat on crypto, but I continue to worry about the space long term as there is no true way to value what these cryptocurrencies are worth. While this is a major concern for our firm, I would say leverage in the space is another major risk. A big problem is the rules and regulations and ultimately the transparency in the space is not as clear as when you invest in public equities. I was blown away reading an article on CNBC by how crazy the leverage can be, and I bet most investors have no clue about it. While there are ways to leverage crypto in the US, the offshore market is where things get wild! Offshore, decentralized exchanges Hyperliquid offer maximum leverage of 40-times for bitcoin and 25-times for ether and Binance Labs-linked Aster offers as much as 100x leverage, depending on the token. Leverage is so dangerous because if a decline comes and investors need to unwind a position it can create a cascade of selling that leads to massive losses. It is not just the crypto market where people are gambling though. We saw a return to meme craziness with Beyond Meat producing massive gains of 128% Monday and 146% Tuesday. On Wednesday, the stock...Financial Planning: The real cost of financial mistakesWhen it comes to financial wellbeing, avoiding mistakes can be even more powerful than chasing great decisions. Too often, people lose ground not from lack of opportunity, but from unforced errors. Drawing retirement income without tax strategy can quietly cost thousands in extra taxes or Medicare premiums. Holding too much cash or being overly aggressive both expose you to risk, one to inflation, the other to unrecoverable losses. Maintaining investing discipline sounds simple but emotional reactions like selling when markets fall or chasing what’s hot can destroy more wealth than poor returns ever could. Many homeowners also miss out by not structuring their mortgage correctly resulting in more short-term fees, long-term interest, and missed investment returns. The key isn’t perfection; it’s recognizing that protecting...Companies Discussed: The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), ManpowerGroup, Inc. (MAN) & Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)

Will gold hit $5000 an ounce?With all the excitement surrounding the run up in gold this year it seems to be an easy target. However, as investors pour money into precious metals, such as gold, people have to remember that President Trump has pledged to stimulate the economy through tax cuts. The run up in gold has been due to investors that worry about the future of the dollar and other major currencies. Wall Street has labeled this the debasement trade. The dollar did decline in the…Great news, more working-class Americans than ever before are in the stock market.That does sound like good news, but then when you dig a little deeper, it is rather scary! 54% of Americans with incomes between $30,000 and $80,000 have taxable investment accounts. There are several reasons for this like no more commissions for trading stocks, the excitement of investing on certain social media sites, and it’s so easy to trade stocks now as anyone who has a cell phone can pretty much trade stocks instantaneously. I remember an old saying from years ago that when your barber starts talking to you about stock tips that is the peak of the market. This seems to be where we're at today and unfortunately, these investors have…Lower end consumers are having a hard time making their car paymentsWith the rising cost of cars and higher interest rates, lower end consumers are falling behind on their car payments, and the numbers are starting to get a little scary. 14% of new cars that were sold to people had a credit score under 650, this is the highest percent going back to 2016. People seem to be getting in over their head as subprime loans that are 60 days or more overdue are at a record 6% this year. The number of repossessed vehicles is also climbing to a record not seen in 16 years to an estimated 17.3 million repossessed vehicles. Some consumers overbought a car probably due to a good salesperson and that new car smell that sometimes is hard to resist. Some consumers are starting to regret their new car purchase considering the average car payment is around $750 and 20% of loans…Financial Planning: Upgrade Your Emergency Fund to an Emergency PlanWhen paychecks stop, as many federal employees are currently experiencing, having an emergency plan with multiple layers of liquidity is essential. The first line of defense is your credit card. When used strategically, it can buy you up to two months of interest-free spending since no interest accrues until after the statement due date. However, you don’t want to carry a balance beyond that point. Next comes cash reserves, ideally kept in a high-yield Treasury bill money market fund, where your money earns competitive interest while avoiding state tax. Beyond cash, having credit lines such as a HELOC provides deeper, low-cost access to capital without forcing you to liquidate investments. These can take a couple of months to establish, and since they generally don’t have origination fees, it’s best to set them up before you need them. After that, investment accounts can serve as a secondary safety net. Taxable accounts may generate capital gains, but withdrawals are unrestricted. Roth IRA…Companies Discussed: Ferrari (RACE), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) & Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Do stock dividends give you better returns?With the S&P 500 currently paying a dividend of only 1.1%, which is the lowest in about 25 years, people may wonder if they should even care about dividends. In 2024, dividends were only 36% of profits, which was 20 points below the average going back nearly 100 years. Looking at return figures, if you go back 65 years, reinvested dividends did account for roughly 85% of the S&P 500’s total return. With the market at all-time high valuations, investors should not give up on investing in…How will the US government shutdown affect you and the economy?Over the last 50 years, the government has shutdown 21 times with the longest being December 2018 when it lasted 34 days. The shutdown will affect mostly those consumers who are traveling with experts from the travel industry saying it will lose about one billion dollars a week. Think about all the national parks that will be closed and the frustrations at the airports will probably curtail travelers' enthusiasm for traveling. Even with all the negative headlines, stocks tend to do well during a government shutdown with the average three month return after the shutdown at 9.5% and one year later at 22.4%. I would… Public debt looks strong, but private debt not so muchPublic debt, which are bonds that trade on the public market, is looking rather strong based on the small yield margin between investment grade and speculative grade securities compared with the risk-free government debt. In September, $207 billion of corporate bonds were issued and that’s the fifth highest monthly amount on record. Year to date returns for those holding public corporate bonds stands between 7 to 8%. Private debt on the other hand is starting to have issues as companies such as Tricolor Holdings, which is…Financial Planning: Updated Tax Brackets for 2026For 2025, married couples filing jointly will see their standard deduction rise from $31,500 to $32,200 with an additional $1,650 per spouse for those age 65 or older and a new $6,000 deduction per spouse for households with adjusted gross income (AGI) under $150,000, bringing the total possible standard deduction to $47,500. The 12% federal tax bracket will now apply to taxable income up to $100,800 (up from $96,950), and the 0% capital gains and qualified dividend threshold will increase to $98,900 (from $96,700). When calculating tax liability, AGI minus the standard deduction equals taxable income. For retirees, this means the $150,000 AGI level is an…Companies Discussed: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM), International Paper Company (IP) & Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Is a reduction in cardboard demand a warning sign of a slowing economy?The simple answer is yes, but it also is one of many indicators we are seeing. Cardboard is used in many items in the economy from pizza boxes to the multiple items you get delivered from online stores. The numbers show that box shipments after reaching record highs during the pandemic are now down to levels not seen since 2016. If you look at a per-person basis, the numbers are pretty staggering, as they are down over 20% from their 1999 peak. Part of this decline could be from...Will the revenue from AI cover all the debt and expenses it created?AI is definitely part of the future, but has overbuilding surpassed the revenue that it can create? When one steps back and looks at the numbers they are staggering. Over the past three years, major tech firms have committed more funds towards AI data centers than it cost to build the U.S. interstate highway system that took 40 years to build. These numbers are even adjusted for inflation. In the next five years, the AI infrastructure spending will require $2 trillion in annual AI revenue. If you think that’s a lot of revenue you are correct. In 2024 the combined revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia did not hit $2 trillion. It is also five times the amount of money spent globally on subscription software. Consumers have enjoyed the free use of AI, but it appears for businesses paying more than thirty dollars a month per user is the breaking point. AI executives claim the technology could add 10% to the global GDP in the years to come. With that thought they are saying the benefit comes when it can replace a large number of jobs and that the savings would be enough to pay back what they invested. My question is, if you’re replacing all these jobs, consumers will have less money to spend and probably won’t need or care about AI. There are many history lessons about bubbles that did not pay off because of the over excitement on inventions with such things as canals, electricity and railroads just to name a few. People may remember the excitement over the Internet and the building of tens of millions...Finally, some scrutiny on private investments from the SEC!The SEC has an investment advisory committee that was formed back 15 years ago that provides guidance to the regulator. Recently, the committee approved a set of recommendations on how to deal with the private market and protect the less sophisticated investors. The recommendations cover the key problems with private investments for investors, which include how they come up with valuations, how complex they are and that they are not a liquid investment. I thought it was also a wise move that they recommended the SEC demand better disclosures and also who can and cannot invest in private markets. I was very happy to see that they’re not just putting across the board if you have a net worth of X amount you can invest in private investments. The recommendation was based on the investor's...Financial Planning: Keeping more of your Home Sale ProceedsSelling your primary residence can result in a substantial profit, but the IRS provides a valuable tax break to help offset that gain. Individuals can exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains ($500,000 for married couples filing jointly) if they’ve owned and lived in the home for at least two of the past five years. Be careful not to confuse this with selling an investment property, which does not qualify for the primary residence exclusion. Instead, gains from investment property sales may be deferred using a 1031 exchange, where the seller reinvests the proceeds into another investment property. By contrast, with a primary residence sale, you can use the...Companies Discussed: AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) & Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN)

Investors have a false sense of safety in the stock marketA psychologist by the name of Gerald Wilde came up with the term homeostatic years ago and I believe this is totally relevant in today's market. It essentially means that when the environment comes to feel safer, people’s behavior becomes riskier. A great example he used was that people will probably drive faster in a big SUV than in a little tin can of a car. Relating it to today's market, investors seem to feel safer because of the long bull market. As the market continues to rise in the longer term, investors' appetite for risk increases. They do not realize that their behavior is risky because they have a false sense that the market will not drop. While the risk of their investments is high, because of the confirmation day after day of the market going up, they don’t feel that they are taking any risk. From my perspective, the risk just seems like it continues to climb as people chase quick returns. AS an example, out of 672 launches of new exchange-traded funds…IPOs look hot, don’t touch them, you’ll get burned!So far in 2025 there have been over 150 IPOs which if you’re not familiar with the term, it stands for initial public offering. These IPOs have raised about $29 billion so far this year and it is a nice increase in the total number of IPOs when compared to recent years. At this time last year, just 99 IPOs had occurred and in 2023 it was even worse at 76. The exciting news reads “first day gains are averaging 26%, which is the best since 2020”, but it’s important to understand that those eye popping first day gains are not based off the first public trade but rather are gains on shares that were issued prior to heading to the market. Unfortunately, you as an investor have little to no chance of getting those…What's going on with the real estate market?This week we got both existing and new home sales for the month of August and there was a stark difference in the reports. The headline number for new home sales showed an increase of 15.4% compared to last year, while existing home sales were up just 1.8% over that timeframe. The first important consideration here is new home sales can be extremely volatile on a month-to-month basis, and they make up a smaller portion of overall sales. Pre-pandemic, new home sales were normally around 10% of total sales, but with the limited listings in recent years they have been closer to 30% of all sales. One other reason for the large difference is how the reports are calculated. New home sales look at people that were out shopping and signing deals in August, while existing home sales look at closings in the month, which means these were deals that were signed in June or July. Interest rates may have played a factor here as rates for the 30-year fixed mortgage were around 6.7-6.8% in June and July vs around 6.5-6.6% in August. This also doesn't include the…Financial Planning: Insurance Vs InvestmentsWhen building a financial plan, it’s important to recognize that investments and insurance serve very different purposes. Insurance is designed to protect against loss. Life insurance provides for your family if you pass away, health insurance shields you from crushing medical bills, and auto insurance protects you financially from accidents or damage. You pay a known cost, the premium, to avoid a potentially devastating unknown cost, which makes insurance a valuable safety net. Investments, on the other hand, are meant to grow wealth and produce income. Stocks, bonds, and real estate help your money work for you overtime. While they can experience short-term volatility and uncertainty, most high-quality investments are built on solid foundations and have historically rewarded patience; those who can tolerate the ups and downs are almost guaranteed to come out ahead in the long run. The confusion comes when insurance products, like…Companies Discussed: Compass, Inc. (COMP), PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) & Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)

Retail sales are still surprisingly strongAlthough the labor market has been softening and consumers say they are worried about inflation, people are still spending money. August retail sales were up 5% compared to last year and if the annual decline of 0.7% in gasoline stations was excluded, sales would have increased 5.5% compared to last August. Strength was broad based in the report and outside of gasoline stations the only other major categories that saw declines were department stores where sales were down 1% and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers, which fell 2.3%. Non-store retailers continued to be a dominant category as sales climbed 10.1% and…Are quarterly reports necessary for public companies?President Trump floated the idea of switching company reports from quarterly to semiannual. It appears Trump believes this will help companies focus more on the long-term business performance rather than fixating on short-term quarterly numbers. There's also hope this will save time and money for public corporations. The SEC acknowledged they are actively looking into the plan as a spokesperson for the agency stated, "At President Trump’s request, Chairman [Paul] Atkins and the SEC is prioritizing this proposal to further eliminate unnecessary regulatory burdens on companies." Being a long-term investor, I can see the benefits of changing this requirement as one quarter should not dictate your decision on…Is your financial advisor "quiet retiring"?You may not completely understand what “quiet retiring” means, but a few years ago, my son Chase and I were on the Dr. Phil Show because they were doing an episode on what they called “quit quitting”. Chase and I were on the pro side for business and working hard, while the other side essentially felt they should still get paid the same amount and not work hard. So, I have coined the phrase, “quiet retiring”. I have been seeing this happen in the financial service industry, especially considering the fact that the average US financial advisor is 56 years old. I have noticed more of them feel they deserve to play more golf or travel more than the average person since they seem to be in retirement mode. They are not telling their clients this and they have their admin staff handle most of the routine details so you, the client, really…Understand the risk of low rated bondsSome investors rightly so have started selling some stocks and they are not excited about buying more stocks at this time. As we’ve been saying for quite a while now, we think this is a wise move to sell some stocks that are overpriced, but unfortunately, it seems investors got used to the high returns and they have turned to low rated high-yield bonds. According to JPMorgan Chase, issuance of junk rated bonds and loans hit a monthly record of $240 billion in July. In 2025, $930 billion has been raised through junk bonds and loans. Add that to the over $1 trillion in junk bonds from 2024 and you can see that the risk for investors is starting to increase. Most investors will not buy these individual junk bonds, but they have been plowing money into the high yield mutual funds and exchange traded funds, also known as…Financial Planning: Dealing with underwater carsAbout a quarter of vehicles traded in today carry negative equity, with the average shortfall around $6,500. This happens because cars depreciate quickly, and the trade-in value offered by a dealership is the lowest number you’ll see—less than what you might get in a private sale, and well below the dealer’s eventual resale price. Because of this depreciation, about 40% of financed vehicles on the road carry negative equity. While it’s possible to roll negative equity into a new auto loan, that often creates a deeper hole: you’re financing more than the car is worth, and the new vehicle immediately begins its own…Companies Discussed: Zillow Group, Inc (Z), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) & Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS)