The Argentina Brief

A landmark week for Argentina's credit story — and we break it all down in under 3 minutes.📊 In this episode:*S&P upgrades Argentina to B- — now aligned with Fitch; country risk drops to 8-year low below 440bp*Eight corporates upgraded: YPF, Pampa Energía, TGS, Telecom Argentina, Genneia, YPF Luz, EDEMSA, Aeropuertos Argentina 2000*May inflation at 2.1%; core breaks below 2% for the first time*Vice Minister Daza: "The dollar didn't flatten — it normalized"*Industry and construction both -2.8% YoY; Argentina last in Americas for hiring expectations*Delinquency hits 27% — Supervielle CEO sees 3-4 more tough months*Adorni scandal goes global — FT publishes dedicated piece*Louis Dreyfus announces US$400M sunflower plant in Bahía Blanca📰 About the Argentina Brief:The Argentina Brief includes a weekly X thread and video wrap-up, as well as a monthly English-language podcast covering the most important economic, financial, and business news from Argentina — built for investors, executives, and anyone following the Milei era in real time.🔗 Follow for more Argentina coverage:*X Thread (full weekly breakdown): https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2066294994365825177

The weekly Argentina Brief breaks down the biggest economic and financial news from Argentina — in under 3 minutes.This week:*Stanley Druckenmiller is back in Argentine stocks. His Duquesne Family Office picked up US$128 million in YPF — now at 20-year highs — plus Vista Energy and the MSCI Argentina ETF. Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi also bought Argentine equities in Q1.*MSCI upgrade speculation is building. Morgan Stanley estimates Argentina could see US$5 billion in passive inflows if reclassified to emerging market status this month.*Argentina's capital markets posted their best start to a year since 2015. Companies raised US$6.2 billion in debt issuances through April — dollar bonds drove nearly 90% of the total.*Swiss trader Mercuria closed its US$1.42 billion acquisition of Shell's downstream assets — the Dock Sud refinery, 894 gas stations, and more.*Chevron filed a RIGI application for El Trapial, a US$13.8 billion upstream project in Vaca Muerta — the first filed exclusively by a US company. RIGI now totals US$107 billion in committed investment across 38 projects.*The Central Bank hit its US$10 billion reserve purchase target seven months early, on its 100th consecutive buying session. VP Vladimir Werning said the BCRA has restored its "firepower" ahead of the 2027 elections.*Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced Argentina formally applied to join the Trans-Pacific trade bloc (CPTPP) — 12 countries representing 13% of global GDP.*The latest REM survey: May inflation expected at 2.3%, breaking below 2% by August. Annual inflation forecast at 30.5% for 2026, 19.9% for 2027. GDP growth at 2.9% this year, 3.1% in 2027 and 2028.Hosted by Francisco Aldaya, Bureau Chief for Argentina at Bloomberg Línea.

Argentina’s macro data finally gave Javier Milei some breathing room in May: economic activity beat expectations, manufacturing and construction rebounded, inflation slowed, and major RIGI investment announcements kept coming. But the country underneath the numbers still looked tense.In Episode 3 of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi discuss Argentina’s hantavirus scare, cuts to disease-prevention programmes, the latest university marches, and warnings from government officials that austerity is reaching its limits. They also dig into the government’s strongest social talking point, falling poverty, and ask whether the headline number may be overstating the recovery, especially with disposable income still 12 percent below pre-Milei levels.They also unpack the seemingly never-ending scandal involving Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni, the factional warfare inside Milei’s camp that spilled into public view through an anonymous Twitter account, and whether investors care when political chaos starts to look like a governability problem. Peter Thiel then enters the conversation, with Palantir, Argentina’s proposed “social digital twin,” data-security concerns, and a very odd Buenos Aires run that includes a chess tournament in Almagro and fake AI images of him eating milanesa. And because fake milanesa is no substitute for the real thing, Allie Lazar joins to discuss where Thiel, or anyone else, should actually go for the city’s best milanesas.Recorded on May 26, 2026.

The weekly Argentina Brief breaks down the biggest economic and financial news from Argentina — in under 3 minutes.Full thread available on X: https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2055694184841933302This week:*April inflation falls to 2.6% — the lowest April print since 2017 (excluding 2020). Core held at 2.3%, food at 1.5%. Regulated prices (+4.7%) did the heavy lifting.*Country risk dipped below 500 basis points for the first time since January. Goldman Sachs's Alberto Ramos told Bloomberg Línea that Argentina could issue bonds now — but Caputo "isn't wrong" to wait for tighter spreads.*YPF filed the largest single RIGI project ever — a US$25 billion oil development in Vaca Muerta targeting 240,000 barrels per day by 2032, all for export. Four other projects were also approved, including a Chinese lithium expansion.*Grupo Financiero Galicia swung back to profit with ARS$66.5 billion in net income. The drag: Naranja X, whose NPLs surged 155% YoY.*MercadoLibre posted its fourth straight earnings miss. Citi downgraded the stock; five banks cut price targets. But Michael Burry is buying — his "load the truck" price is around US$1,300.*Globant jumped 12% after CEO Martín Migoya delivered a bullish AI message: "This industry is being reconfigured in front of our eyes. Globant was built for this moment."*The Central Bank disclosed it paid US$17.7 million in interest on the US$2.5 billion US Treasury swap — and revealed the China swap has been cut by two-thirds.Hosted by Francisco Aldaya

A Fitch upgrade, a corruption scandal entering its third month, and quarterly results from Argentina's two largest companies by market cap — with very different outcomes.FULL THREAD AVAILABLE ON X! https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2053545311293919531This week: Economy Minister Luis Caputo shifts his tone on tapping international debt markets. Fitch raises Argentina from CCC+ to B-minus, while Moody's hints a July upgrade could be possible. The Adorni scandal intensifies as Patricia Bullrich publicly breaks ranks. MercadoLibre delivers 49% revenue growth but plunges 12.7% — and Michael Burry says he's buying. YPF beats estimates but slips on fuel price freeze questions. Plus: REM survey shows inflation steady but GDP expectations trimmed.🎧 For a deeper dive, check out Episode 2 of the monthly Argentina Brief podcast with Dan Politi and Allie Lazar — available on all podcast platforms.Stories covered:Caputo shifts tone on international debt issuanceFitch raises Argentina to B-minusMoody's signals possible July upgradeAdorni scandal — Bullrich calls for urgent asset declarationMilei approval falls below 36%REM survey: 2.6% inflation, peso forecasts strengthen, GDP trimmed to 2.8%MercadoLibre Q1: 49% revenue growth, stock plunges 12.7%Michael Burry takes position in MELIYPF Q1: beats estimates, fuel price freeze in focus

Argentina's Congress passed a sweeping reform to the glacier protection law, handing provincial governors the power to greenlight mining on previously protected formations — potentially unlocking up to $28 billion in copper investment from BHP and Glencore. The central bank logged its second-largest single-day dollar purchase since Milei took office, extending a 64-session buying streak. And Morgan Stanley says Argentina could post a current account surplus this year — three years ahead of IMF projections.Also this week: manufacturing fell nearly 9% year-on-year as the two-speed economy deepens, capital controls were partially loosened, March inflation ticked back up to 3% on fuel costs, Arca Continental signaled a sustained consumer recovery, and Marcelo Mindlin completed a landmark cement deal spanning Argentina and Brazil.

A packed week for Argentina — geopolitics, economics, and legal drama all at once.We start with an unusual story: leaked Russian intelligence documents allege a coordinated campaign to destabilize the Milei government throughout 2024, spending over $600,000 on real and fabricated content. The revelations come as Argentina's geopolitical alignment gets even sharper — with the expulsion of Iran's chargé d'affaires this week.On the economic front, poverty fell to 28.2%, the lowest since 2018 and down nearly 25 points from the post-devaluation peak. But analysts are warning the decline may have hit a floor, with wages now trailing inflation.Foreign investors keep leaning in. Non-resident bond holdings hit their highest since June 2023, and Chile's LarrainVial resumed Argentina coverage for the first time since Macri — comparing the stabilization to Chile in the 1990s, not Mexico's 1994 crisis.Meanwhile, Vaca Muerta keeps booming: the RIGI pipeline now has over $23 billion in projects under review, and Vista Energy raised $500 million in 12-year bonds. The peso — defying EM peers — appreciated 2.3% since the Iran war began, fueled by record grain harvests.But it wasn't all smooth sailing. A federal court suspended 81 articles of the labor reform after the CGT's constitutional challenge. And Cabinet Chief Adorni saw his legal troubles deepen.Finally, Argentina tested the market's appetite for post-Milei risk with a new 2028 bond — which sold at 8.9%, a 380bp premium over bonds maturing before his term ends.—Host: Francisco Aldaya

Two years into Javier Milei’s presidency, Argentina is at a turning point. The economy is stabilising but unevenly, and the mood around his government is beginning to shift. In the debut episode of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi unpack a K-shaped recovery: which sectors are booming, who’s being left behind, and what that divide means for the country’s future. We also take you inside Argentina Week in New York, where the government pitched its economic model to global investors, and examine the growing tensions around Milei, from sliding poll numbers to the controversies testing his authority.Finally, Allie Lazar joins us to unpack why all the new Buenos Aires restaurants look the same, and shares her top three spots in the city.New episodes monthly.