The Conditional Release Program

This one was Meta AI - it's a free model and it did a pretty good job. Obviously I am not going to read that and neither will anyone else, but outside of the lack of brevity here it's a decent write up. Well done, Mark. EPISODE TITLE OPTIONSUse one as main title, others as alternates for SEO:One Nation's Immigration Muddle, 18C on Trial, and Tampa 25 Years OnFarley the Throwback, AI Bubble Warnings and the Swans Self-DestructFrom Narrandera to Norway: Immigration, Data Centres and Banning AI in SchoolsThe Two Jacks on Pauline Hanson vs 18C, the UK's Boat Camps and America's Voting MessCocaine Capital, $600 Grams in Perth and a 49ers Billionaire in a Trailer Park StingBloods Culture to Boarding School: Tampa, Tribunals and What Went Wrong at the SwansEPISODE SUMMARYEpisode 170 is a wide-ranging end-of-winter news wrap from Sydney and Hong Kong.Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack start with One Nation's confused immigration numbers - David Farley suggesting an intake not far from Labor's, Pauline Hanson unclear on net overseas migration - and ask whether vagueness matters when neither government nor opposition has a clear story either. Farley, the Narrandera-based former Labor aspirant now with One Nation, is singled out as a throwback to old Country Party-style ministers like Doug Anthony, Ian Sinclair and Peter Nixon - rural common sense and real-world experience.The conversation moves to energy and tech. The Albanese government's proposal that new data centres from mid-next year need their own water source and 100% renewable power triggers a debate about global electricity demand. Data centre consumption is projected to double from 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1000 TWh by 2030. The Jacks question small modular nuclear reactors in Australia and warn of an AI investment bubble, with 15% of the S&P 500 now AI-configured and Chinese open-source models undercutting expensive US startups.On law, they unpack Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act. Context is Pauline Hanson's 2022 tweet to Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi telling her to "piss off back to Pakistan" after Faruqi's comments on Queen Elizabeth, which led to a Federal Court finding and a reported $200,000 penalty. Hanson is seeking leave to appeal to the High Court. The Jacks also discuss the White Australia Party's attempt to circumvent hate-group laws linked to the National Socialist Network and ASIO's role, and debate whether repugnant speech should be illegal.Twenty-five years on from the MV Tampa, they revisit the Howard-era response, children overboard, the excision of Christmas Island and other northern territories from the migration zone, and the legacy of mandatory detention introduced under Keating. Hong Kong Jack draws on his ten years on the Refugee Review Tribunal, including a harrowing self-harm incident during a video hearing in Woomera.Internationally: the UK's new camps for unscheduled boat arrivals after the High Court blocked the Rwanda plan, and the problematic Daily Mail reporting of gyms, football pitches and halal-only food; the US Supreme Court allowing state-based moves to restrict mail-in ballots, the stalled SAVE Act requiring birth certificates to vote and its impact on married women, and why America needs an AEC-style independent electoral commission.The Jacks note Norway banning generative AI in primary schools and restricting it in upper years after a decline in reading and writing, and pay tribute to Dolly Parton and the Dollywood Foundation's 325 million books program as a springboard into phonics vs whole-language teaching. Jack the Insider credits his mother and the Whitlam-era disadvantaged schools program for championing phonics.Court and crime: a mistrial in Pennsylvania after a juror allegedly smoked marijuana in the jury room during a murder trial; and Australia's cocaine problem in the context of the Sydney Swans hotel-room scandal. The Jacks discuss the legal risk of supply of a trafficable quantity (15 years in Victoria), self-reporting data suggesting 4% to 11% usage, 1500 possession arrests in the Eastern Suburbs, $600 a gram in Perth creating a Nullarbor business model, and the shift to crystal meth where cocaine is scarce.Sport to close: Italy's Giorgia Meloni becoming the longest-serving PM of the Italian Republic, polling 25-26% for Brothers of Italy as a buffer against the harder right; the Swans culture piece by Andrew Webster - the end of the Bloods self-sacrifice era of Kirk and Kelly, late nights at the Beach Road and Clovelly Hotels, adult entertainment in the team hotel, four-week bans, presumption of innocence, and Nick Blakey demanding a trade to North Melbourne where his father played; NRL - Roosters and Panthers as premiership threats; AFL - Carlton vs Melbourne as a clash of new game plans; cricket - England vs Pakistan at Lord's, Pakistan in disarray, Babar Azam out of form, and whether Marnus Labuschagne should tour South Africa or if he is at the "thanks for your service" stage; and finally the NFL - the San Francisco 49ers CEO caught in a police sting in East Palestine, Ohio, $140 agreed on WhatsApp, no trailer or brothel at the lot, two days jail with credit for time served and $1000 in fines and costs.Next week: listener feedback on booze and upper-middle-class parenting.SHOW NOTES - TOPICS COVEREDAustralian Politics: One Nation immigration policy split between David Farley and Pauline Hanson, net overseas migration confusion, Albanese wedge politics, Opposition property ban for temporary residents, Labor's delayed immigration announcement and refugee intake numbers.Energy and Technology: Data centres in Australia, water and renewable requirements, small-scale nuclear reactors in Russia and China, global power demand, AI bubble vs dotcom bubble, US vs Chinese AI models, S&P 500 exposure.Law and Free Speech: Section 18C - offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate, Pauline Hanson vs Mehreen Faruqi Federal Court decision, High Court leave to appeal process, White Australia Party and National Socialist Network, hate group laws, implied freedom of political communication.Immigration History: 25th anniversary of Tampa, MV Tampa and Captain, Merak and Christmas Island, children overboard, excision of Australian territories, mandatory detention, Woomera, Port Hedland, Villawood and Maribyrnong, Manus Island and Nauru costs.UK and US: UK mandatory processing centres, minibuses, no-document arrivals, security risks and Nick Radev case, Daily Mail coverage; US mail-in ballots, electoral rolls, SAVE Act, automatic voter registration in Oregon/Washington/California, gerrymandering and partisan control, Ross Perot and third-party candidates.Education and Culture: Norway AI ban, iPads in schools, national testing decline, phonics revival in Australia, Dr Seuss, John and Betty readers, Dolly Parton and literacy, scholarships for Year 7 retention.Courts and Drugs: Pennsylvania juror and devil's lettuce mistrial, field sobriety and judge's chambers process, Christian Brothers at St Pat's Ballarat, Sydney Swans scandal and allegations of indecent assault, white powder found, trafficable quantity laws, Australia as highest self-reported cocaine users, Double Bay and Waverley Local Court, cardiac risks.Sport: Swans culture, Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey trade to North Melbourne, Andrew Webster SMH column, AFL finals odds Sydney at $34, NRL Warriors Roosters Panthers, Carlton vs Melbourne injuries, England vs Pakistan second Test, Marnus Labuschagne technique and Steve Smith comparison, Ricky Ponting assessment, San Francisco 49ers CEO East Palestine sting.All timestamps below are adjusted by +25 seconds to account for theme music at the top of the episode.TIMESTAMPED HIGHLIGHTS (Adjusted +25s)00:00:25 - Open: End of winter in Sydney and the Highlands, mid-20s, bracing for a stinking hot summer. Hong Kong Jack on the Hungry Ghost Festival heat and humidity.00:01:54 - One Nation's immigration numbers: David Farley vs Pauline Hanson, does vagueness matter?00:03:36 - Old Country Party ministers: Doug Anthony, Ian Sinclair, Peter Nixon, Peter Walsh, John Kerin, Mick Young. Farley as a rural common-sense throwback and best new MP in ages.00:04:39 - How long will Farley stay with One Nation? History of independents.00:06:07 - Government and Opposition also unclear on migration, cabinet donnybrook, Albo's populist instincts and a potential wedge.00:14:50 - Data centres are coming to Australia: Albanese plan for own water source and renewables from July 1 next year.00:15:52 - Small modular nuclear: one in Russia, one in China, cost issues, worldwide energy growth before AI.00:16:47 - Electricity to double: 460 TWh in 2024 to 1000+ TWh by 2030, S&P 500 AI exposure, trillions invested.00:18:50 - Tech bubble vs AI bubble: companies with no revenue then vs Meta and Google with revenue now, but startup risk for Anthropic and others.00:21:41 - What is Section 18C? Offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate explained.00:22:23 - Pauline Hanson tweet to Mehreen Faruqi "piss off back to Pakistan", Queen Elizabeth context, Federal Court appeal, $200k fine, High Court leave.00:23:12 - White Australia Party, National Socialist Network, ASIO recommendation to Home Affairs Minister to shut down hate groups.00:25:38 - Will Hanson succeed? Prediction 18C rendered toothless on offend/insult/humiliate.00:28:08 - 25 years since Tampa: ABC docudrama, Norwegian tanker MV Tampa, 2001.00:29:26 - Children overboard, Peter Reith gilding the lily.00:30:43 - How Tampa changed the rules permanently: no unscheduled arrival lands in migration zone.00:32:12 - Refugee Tribunal reality: Woomera/Port Hedland video hearing, self-harm incident, need for thick skin.00:35:00 - UK's new camps after Rwanda failure, mandatory processing, fingerprints, 17 minibuses, not locked up like Villawood.00:38:27 - Security risk: Nick Radev - Nick the Russian/Bulgarian, wiped criminal history, prison tattoos, arriving with clean sheet.00:42:46 - SCOTUS and US mail-in ballots: state administrators, postal workers, accurate electoral rolls, attempt to slow mail voting.00:49:21 - Norway bans generative AI in primary schools, iPads since 1990s, decline in reading/writing, return to books.00:51:30 - Dolly Parton tribute: Dollywood Foundation 325 million books to US, Ireland, UK, Australia, NZ, functional illiteracy, pathway to imagination. 4,000 songs and 9 to 5 story with Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin.00:57:30 - Phonics vs whole language: Dolly's father, $500 scholarships to get through Year 7, Australian education decline, Whitlam disadvantaged schools program, Dr Seuss and Cat in the Hat 1957.01:01:22 - Devil's lettuce in the jury room: Pennsylvania murder trial of Saffron Gump and Gregory Prince, juror smoked in fifth-floor room, lawyers argue prescription, judge calls jurors one by one, mistrial, boarding school parallels.01:04:31 - Cocaine and the Swans: Australian article, two bags of white powder in hotel room, no one claims ownership, supply trafficable quantity 15 years jail, agency providing girls.01:07:29 - Australia's cocaine appetite: biggest users in world on self-reporting, 4% to 11%, tradies on the bags, financial and legal sectors, Double Bay 1500 possession arrests.01:12:53 - $600 a gram in Perth, Nullarbor drug run business model, when cocaine scarce users turn to crystal meth.01:14:58 - Italy: Giorgia Meloni longest-serving PM of Italian Republic, Brothers of Italy polling 25.4 to 26.4%, buffer against extreme right, far-right label rendered meaningless.01:17:38 - Swans culture: Brett Kirk and Paul Kelly Bloods era vs now, Andrew Webster column, Beach Road Hotel and Clovelly Hotel, self-sacrificing myth.01:20:22 - Hotel scandal: 4am return, 7am bus, adult entertainment, disrespect for teammates, four-week bans near certain, victims and presumption of innocence.01:25:26 - Nick Blakey demands immediate trade, North Melbourne link, dad John Blakey, Heeney Warner and Blakey as top liners someone will want.01:26:09 - NRL: Warriors, Roosters premiership winning form if past Panthers.01:26:38 - AFL tonight: Carlton vs Melbourne preview, injuries to Lever, Will Hayward, attractive footy and game plan changes.01:28:20 - Cricket England vs Pakistan at Lord's: Pakistan dismissed cheaply, in disarray, Joe Root captaincy phone call.01:29:46 - Does Marnus Labuschagne go to South Africa? Renshaw, Campbell Callaway, Oliver Peake options, Ricky Ponting says thanks for your service.01:32:30 - NFL not football: San Francisco 49ers CEO in East Palestine, Ohio trailer park sting, WhatsApp $140, no trailer there, two days jail with time served, $1000 fines, attempt to seal records denied, quick trip to Tiffany's.01:35:?? - Close: Spring next week, listener feedback on booze and parenting coming up.

This using Google Gemini 3.7 Flash using extended mode. Got a free thing for uni so giving this a whirl. It's not that good. The Jacks dive into the ongoing debate surrounding the Royal Commission into Antisemitism and Social Cohesion, examining the limits of royal commissions in resolving complex social and security issues compared to criminal investigations. They scrutinise the announcement of Victoria's Big Build Royal Commission, the appointment of a special prosecutor, and Fiona Brown’s $2 million Commonwealth settlement. The conversation turns to explosive reports of Exclusive Brethren members funneling cash to far-right political agitators, before shifting overseas to assess Andy Burnham's opening month as UK Prime Minister, shifting European politics, and the tragic fallout of the Jason Arday media storm. Finally, the hosts dissect the massive fallout from the Sydney Swans hotel scandal on the eve of the AFL finals and examine the Australian cricket team's shock Test defeat against Bangladesh.00:00:26 - Episode Introduction: Ghost Month in Hong Kong and local headlines. 00:01:57 - The Royal Commission into Antisemitism: High-profile critics, scope limitations, and the Bondi trial boundary. 00:07:15 - Broken systems: Australia's fragmented firearms registries and the limits of public inquiries. 00:13:34 - Free speech, social cohesion, and the ethics of doxxing. 00:21:35 - Victoria's Big Build Royal Commission: Dan Andrews, CFMEU costs, and the special prosecutor role. 00:27:18 - Fiona Brown's $2M Commonwealth settlement and John Howard's rebuke of political handling. 00:30:55 - Duffle bags of cash: Exclusive Brethren funding of political disruptions and the legal hurdles of regulating campaign conduct. 00:38:55 - The legal definition of a cult, Scientology High Court precedents, and Nick Xenophon’s Senate battles. 00:45:13 - International Brief: Mélenchon and the French Left, plus Andy Burnham's first month as UK Prime Minister. 00:49:55 - Populist dynamics: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK versus Pauline Hanson's One Nation. 00:53:25 - The lighter side: Andrew Tate supporters performing push-ups outside prison. 00:55:10 - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's social media mastery and emerging US Democratic contenders. 01:00:32 - The Jason Arday tragedy: Media scrutiny, academic vetting, and press freedom debates. 01:07:05 - Sydney Swans hotel scandal: Player suspensions, finals derailment, and cultural damage at the Bloods. 01:23:25 - Cricket wrap: Bangladesh stuns Australia in Darwin, selection dilemmas ahead of Mackay, and Nathan Lyon's future. 01:32:03 - Update on Imran Khan’s hospitalisation and episode wrap-up.

This one is Claude Sonnet 5 - did a decent job. Got Gemini to do it at the same time and it was SHIT. --------------------------Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open with an air-conditioner instalation story that would give any WHS officer a heart attack, before diving into the immigration debate consuming the Western world, Albo's cringeworthy podcast melon gag and the diplomatic fallout with Japan, Angus Taylor's Twitter misfire, a grim Newspoll for Labor, the conviction of former Bishop Christopher Saunders, the unravelling Mahmoud Fazal/Four Corners scandal, an AI Royal Commission, Israel's rejection of the Gaza peace plan, Ukraine's drone edge, a spot of Marxism 101, and a bumper sports wrap covering the Ashes build-up, Geelong's concussion waiver scandal and the NRL's new PNG and Perth franchises.00:00:26 — Cold open: Hong Kong air-con drama. Hong Kong Jack recounts tradesmen scaling the building exterior, tying off to a sewer pipe and rigging a platform in under an hour — a workplace safety non-starter back home.00:01:20 — Immigration policy in limbo. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke pulls his National Press Club address after Cabinet gets cold feet on migration numbers; One Nation capitalises on the vacuum.00:02:17 — Paul Kelly on the West's immigration reckoning. The hosts unpack Kelly's column on multiculturalism's failures in Europe versus its comparative success in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US, and why a clear pathway to national identity matters.00:04:23 — The politician/public disconnect. A Financial Times study (John Burn-Murdoch) showing big gaps between public and political opinion on migrant assimilation across Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden.00:06:10 — Is the far right the cause or the symptom? A robust back-and-forth on whether One Nation, AfD, Reform UK and Le Pen's party are driving the backlash or simply capitalising on governments that lost control of migration systems.00:08:50 — Albo's podcast melon gag fallout. The PM's crass "melons" line about the Japanese Prime Minister on a comedy podcast draws a diplomatic complaint from Tokyo and calls for an apology he still hasn't given.00:10:39 — Why politicians chase the "youth" podcast circuit. Discussion of Albo's ties to Sandilands-style FM radio and whether the audience numbers justify the reputational risk.00:12:32 — Latika Bourke's double standard question. Would a corporate CEO survive the same scrutiny as a Prime Minister? The Jacks disagree on how novel the standard really is.00:14:14 — Angus Taylor's Twitter misfire. A dissected, over-written tweet accusing the "socialist" Albanese government lands badly — "people might think they're bumbling fools, but they don't think they're socialist."00:15:53 — Angus Taylor and the ICAC donation question. A circular exchange over an unresolved email regarding a potential donation tied to a group under ICAC scrutiny.00:17:52 — Coalition social media strategy. Jane Hume's five-a-day Instagram habit and whether the Coalition's messaging is landing with anyone at this point in the electoral cycle.00:18:52 — Productivity and work-from-home. Westpac CEO Anthony Miller warns rates could stay elevated into 2028 without a productivity fix; Victoria shelves its work-from-home legislation ahead of the planned 1 September start.00:21:36 — Red tape and the housing/business regulation debate. Building approval bottlenecks, the Coalition's building-standards rollback proposal, and why company/tax reporting (not ABN registration) is the real handicap for small business.00:24:14 — Newspoll: Labor's primary vote "plunges." Labor down to 29 percent (from 31), described by the Jacks as more "meandering" than plunging — with a look at how far off Labor is from its 34.5 percent election benchmark.00:25:31 — Kos Samaras/RedBridge on the new voter blocs. A breakdown of Labor's inner-city, under-45, migrant-heavy base; One Nation's mortgage-stressed, outer-suburban trades vote; and the Coalition's shrinking, wealthy, over-55 remnant — plus where the Jacks think the analysis oversimplifies.00:28:42 — How the Coalition lost its heartland. Reflections on 19 years of Coalition government since Howard, the failure to read demographic warning signs, and the loss of both the "asset rich" and "asset poor" ends of its old coalition.00:31:49 — Content warning: child sexual abuse. Former Bishop of Broome Christopher Saunders, 76, found guilty of one count of sexual penetration and multiple indecent assault charges against a young Indigenous man; sentencing yet to be scheduled.00:32:50 — Saunders' pattern of behaviour. Allegations of financial mismanagement, smuggling alcohol into dry Indigenous communities, a 2019 police raid uncovering exploitation material, and a Vatican finding he likely abused Indigenous youth.00:34:59 — The Bishop Ronald Mulkearns parallel. The Ballarat bishop's Royal Commission appearance and mysterious final holiday hosted by Saunders in Broome shortly before his death.00:37:06 — The Four Corners/Mahmoud Fazal scandal. Fazal's background as a self-described former Mongols bike gang sergeant-at-arms turned journalist; his Cocaine Nation and Meth Highway reports pulled from air, along with a Background Briefing program.00:38:33 — Media Watch's verdict. Linton Besser's assessment that Fazal was "embellishing his journalism," and how ABC's editorial oversight failed across two flagship programs.00:39:39 — The Jordan Shanks (Friendly Jordies) threat allegations. Fazal's alleged role relaying threats from the Alameddine crime family after Shanks' house was firebombed twice; Fazal disputes the death-threat characterisation.00:41:36 — Where journalism crosses into participation. Jack the Insider's personal rule against interviewing active criminals, and a wider discussion of when reporters become "players" rather than observers — including a detour to the "Poison Dwarf," Clayton Milne.00:46:20 — A 2006 ice epidemic documentary as the gold standard. A comparison piece where public health officials and police saw the crystal meth wave coming years before government — done properly, without masked, unverifiable sources.00:48:21 — South Australia's $3 million AI Royal Commission. Premier Peter Malinauskas announces the inquiry; the Jacks are sceptical it will produce much, suspecting it's more about attracting AI investment.00:49:27 — The AI investment bubble risk. Massive capital flowing into Anthropic, Meta and Google versus cheaper, competitive Chinese models — and what that imbalance could mean for the S&P 500's AI-heavy weighting.00:51:00 — Israel rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan. Distrust that Hamas will disarm, and why the stakes feel existential rather than abstract for Israelis.00:52:32 — Israel's 27 October election. Netanyahu's fragile coalition, Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich's collapsing poll numbers, and the growing backlash over ultra-Orthodox exemptions from IDF service.00:57:09 — Ukraine: Starlink access and drone warfare. Elon Musk restricting Ukrainian Starlink use against Russia, a declined meeting with Trump, and Ukraine's drone successes — including a joint exercise with US forces in Germany.01:00:29 — Reports of distress aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. Unconfirmed accounts of sailors going overboard after roughly ten months of continuous deployment.01:01:52 — Stephen Kotkin on Marxism's enduring appeal. Why intellectuals keep returning to Marxist ideas despite the historical body count — and a tangent on campus recruitment, ASIO and the "special role" intellectuals imagine for themselves.01:05:15 — Iran, Cambodia and the fate of the intellectual class. Historical examples of revolutions turning on the intelligentsia that helped bring them about.01:06:06 — Sport check: the Ashes build-up begins. Australia's shaky start against Bangladesh, Steve Smith's lucky reprieve, and questions over Alex Carey's batting position and the middle order.01:08:24 — Selection headaches: Labuschagne and Nathan Lyon. Marnus Labuschagne's technical struggles and whether Lyon plays out the year, with the World Test Championship and next year's Ashes on the horizon.01:11:03 — Geelong's concussion contract waiver scandal. A player reportedly signing away his right to sue over concussion management; questions over why the club didn't submit the waiver to the AFL or AFLPA, and calls for points deductions rather than fines.01:16:04 — Jake Kelly's likely retirement and player consent. Whether it matters who initiated the waiver, and why players will "sign anything" to keep playing despite long-term brain injury risks.01:18:30 — NRL expansion: PNG Chiefs and Perth Bears. Tax-free salaries giving PNG Chiefs an effective cap advantage, players relocating to a purpose-built village in Port Moresby, and Perth's 2027 entry into the competition.01:22:36 — Poaching rugby fans, AFL's expansion and wildcard finals. The Perth Bears' leadership, Tasmania Devils' draft concessions, Nigel Lappin's coaching move, and early impressions of the AFL's new wildcard finals round.

It's back to back news finishing up with a bit of heroin and a bit of crack. First up we look at the census. This segment could have gone for about 3 days but we highlight some dumb shit surrounding the entirely uncontroversial 2026 census. Yeah, you really made albo upset by not filling it in. Nice work championDr Daniel alerts us to an antivax lawsuit being run by a legal professional. But not a lawyer? Hmmm. Jack discusses the guilty verdict of Bishop Chris Saunders who is a terrible piece of paedo shit who will hopefully die in gaol. AND Mike Lindell loses his primary only to suggest - to everyone's surprise - that there were irregularities. Does he have ABSOLUTE PROOF of election fraud? Probably not, but there's enough crack left in this baggie to get us through to the next conspiracy theory in the midterms. Lastly, instead of Babet or Pete we just smack RFK Jr on the end, the only man in the administration that makes Trump look healthy by comparison. Maybe ease up on the peptides there mate.

This week it's NVIDIA Nemotron Ultra through Perplexity - my sub is running out soon. It made some pretty amazing mistakes and totally made up the references list at the end. I dunno, stick to making chips fellas cause this is a bit shit. Still, it's better than nothing. The clankers are still doing okay at the shownotes thing. Enjoy! --------SummaryMr. Insider and Hong Kong Jack open with the passing of Melbourne matriarch Kath Pettingill (91) and the grim, darkly comic history of the Pettingill–Allen clan — Dennis “Dr Death” Allen, the Stevenson Street fortress, and the Wall Street executions. They pivot to Victoria’s suppression-order addiction (half the national total) and the Ralph Carr rape conviction that took 48 hours to un-suppress, then dissect IBAC’s Operation Richmond into the UFU/CFA/FRV stitch-up — six years, no corruption findings, just “serious and concerning conduct.”Cross the border to NSW: ICAC’s Operation Rosne is live, Jean‑Claude Perrottet is squirming in the box as Nassif’s $2M bribe tapes play, and Jeremy Greenwood is ghosting from London. A detour through minority-government history (Gillard–Greens–Oakeshott–Windsor) segues into a housing-market stoush: banks forecasting −10%, the Budget saying +2%, and Tanya Plibersek claiming “best time ever for first‑home buyers.”The Cambridge sociologist Jason Arday unravels — non-verbal till 11, 600 miles in six days, 30 marathons in 35 days, a brain tumour, 7‑Up kid, £5.5M raised, AI‑written resignation letter — and the ABC’s Four Corners hiring ex‑Mongol Mahmoud Fazal is flagged for next week. Fauci’s diaries, RFK Jr.’s peptide purge, and COVID revisionism draw a furious rant. Ukraine’s drone supremacy, PLA drone investment, and why NATO spending metrics miss the point.Sport: Trump’s “club champ” grift, Geelong’s secret concussion waiver (chaired by AFL Commission boss Craig Drummond), the wildcard-round tanking farce driven by betting partners, Tasmania signing Nigel Lappin, and Carlton’s miraculous turnaround under Josh Fraser — Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Wade Derksen, and a game plan now built on turnover footy. Matthew Stokes on club culture and troubled players. The Hundred’s kid‑focused gimmickry, AFLW Ireland’s skill explosion at North Sydney Oval, and a teaser on NRL/AFL media capture for next week.Timeline Time Segment0:25 Intro & Housekeeping – 7 Aug 2026, Hong Kong weather (“it’s called summer”), Melbourne heat.1:18 Kath Pettingill & the Pettingill–Allen Dynasty – “Granny Evil” dies at 91; Dennis Allen (Mr Death), Peter Allen, Victor Pierce, Wall Street murders, Stevenson Street Richmond/Cremorne, Brian Murphy’s $1,400/week payoff, chainsaws & 44‑gallon drums.7:03 Victoria’s Suppression‑Order Addiction – >50% of national total; Ralph Carr (Dusty Martin’s ex‑manager) convicted of raping employee; 48‑hour delay lifting suppression; “if you’ve got money you get away with it.”12:29 IBAC Operation Richmond (UFU/CFA/FRV) – Six‑year inquiry; “serious & concerning conduct” but no corrupt conduct; political fix for metropolitan/country fire boundary; “vanilla ICAC” vs NSW theatre; Dan Andrews’ golf clubs.20:39 NSW ICAC Operation Rosne – Young Liberal operatives (Assaf, Ellis, Greenwood, Perrottet brothers); Jean Nassif ($2M bribe allegation, now in Lebanon), Michael O’Hara, Catholic Schools NSW (Dallas McInerney); targeting David Elliott & Building Commissioner David Chandler; Jean‑Claude Perrottet in the box, audio ambush.32:41 Minority Government & Coalitions of Convenience – Gillard–Greens–Oakeshott–Windsor “wedding ceremony”; Paul Kelly’s verdict; “you don’t need formal agreements”; Jim Cairns 1970s parallel; all the 2010 plotters now in gaming.40:52 Housing Market: Crash or Soft Landing? – Banks: −10% / $230B wiped; Budget: +2%; Tanya Plibersek’s “best time ever” claim; negative equity, bank forbearance, 1990s commercial‑property playbook.46:30 Cambridge Professor Jason Arday: Fantasist or Fraud? – Youngest Black professor; didn’t speak till 11, illiterate till 18, 600 miles/6 days, 30 marathons/35 days (last 9 with hairline fracture), 7‑Up claim, £5.5M raised (walked back), brain tumour during PhD; Cambridge defends, then folds; AI‑written resignation letter; Guardian pile‑on; “sociology standards are fuzzy.”51:23 ABC Four Corners & Mahmoud Fazal – Ex‑Mongols sergeant‑at‑arms hired; journalistic ethics vs “great life story”; teed up for next episode.56:34 Fauci, RFK Jr & COVID Revisionism – Fauci takes the Fifth; HHS servers now under Kennedy; “ICUs were empty” lie; double‑blind placebo ethics (Salk polio regret); FDA pulls six peptides off ban list with zero human data; “grifters at 4,000% markup”; healthcare workers threatened.1:04:05 Ukraine–Russia: Drone Wars & Asymmetric Shift – Ukrainians lead in AI‑guided, radar‑invisible drones; defender’s advantage today ≠ tomorrow; PLA investing heavily; US big‑bureaucracy lag; Taiwan lesson — boots still needed.1:08:56 Golf: Trump’s “Club Championship” – 80‑yo, 180‑yard drive, four‑handicap in prime; member confirms nudging, caddy collusion, card‑swapping; “four or five handicap? I’d never play again.”1:10:48 AFL: Geelong’s Secret Concussion Deal – Undisclosed player, multiple concussions, waiver signed, cleared by board (chair Craig Drummond → AFL Commission chair); rival clubs furious; enforceability doubtful; “Geelong get umpired different.”1:14:41 Wildcard Round Tanking & Betting Partners – Greg Swan memo: “pick on merit or scrutiny”; Fremantle 2023 precedent; clubs 6–10 resting stars to keep week off; bookies complain → “don’t bet that week.”1:17:13 Tasmania Devils: Nigel Lappin as Head of Development – “Best development coach in the comp”; development = sustained success (cf. Geelong under Lappin).1:18:45 Carlton’s Blues Revival – Josh Fraser interim; Voss “coached like everyone was Michael Voss”; Fraser: “back yourselves”; turnover footy now elite (1st/2nd in every stat vs Brisbane); Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Taylor Byrne; Wade Derksen’s Darwin-to-rookie fairytale; Curnow→Sydney, Florent/Hayward win‑win; Jacob Weitering return looms.1:27:41 Matthew Stokes on Club Culture & Troubled Players – Ex‑Cat’s own history; secrecy enables; consequences (pay cuts) needed; “don’t let it fester inside the four walls.”1:29:25 Cricket: The Hundred (UK) – 100 balls, 5/10‑ball blocks, 20‑ball max per bowler; ECB: “engage 7–10 year olds”; dominates July/August; “poor man’s T20,” wallpaper cricket; IPL money > Hundred money.1:34:21 AFLW: Ireland v Australia at North Sydney Oval – Sell‑out, Irish diaspora everywhere; skills unrecognisable from Year 1; Gaelic football base; “terrific spectacle.”1:36:09 NRL/AFL Media Capture Teaser – Gus Gould fined $20K for “game’s stupid”; concussion denialism; AFL.com/ NRL.com in‑house content; “incestuous relationship” — deep dive next week.1:38:43 Wrap – Episode 167 recorded 7 Aug; thanks to Hong Kong Jack; see you next week.People & Entities MentionedCategory NamesCategory NamesMelbourne Underworld Kath Pettingill, Dennis Allen, Peter Allen, Victor Pierce, Vicki Pierce, Brian Murphy, Jack (Murphy’s sidekick), Dennis “Dr Death” AllenVictorian Politics/Law Ralph Carr, IBAC, Operation Richmond, UFU, CFA, MFB, FRV, Dan Andrews, Craig Drummond (AFL Commission), Premier Ben CarrollNSW Politics/ICAC Jean‑Claude & Charles Perrottet, Robert Assaf, Christian Ellis, Jeremy Greenwood, Jean Nassif, Michael O’Hara, Dallas McInerney, Damien Tudehope, ICAC Operation RosneFederal/Historical Julia Gillard, Bob Brown, Adam Bandt, Wayne Swan, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott, Jim Cairns, Gough Whitlam, Kevin Rudd, Stephen ConroyHousing/Economy Tanya Plibersek, RBA, major banksAcademia/Media Jason Arday (Cambridge), The Guardian, Mahmoud Fazal (Four Corners), ABCCOVID/Health Anthony Fauci, RFK Jr, FDA, NIH, HHSGeopolitics/Defence Ukraine, Russia, PLA, Taiwan, NATO GDP metricsSport — Golf Donald TrumpAFL Geelong Cats, Craig Drummond, Greg Swan, Fremantle, Ross Lyon, Tasmania Devils, Nigel Lappin, Carlton, Michael Voss, Josh Fraser, Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Taylor Byrne, Wade Derksen, Charlie Curnow, Ollie Florent, Jack Hayward, Jacob Weitering, Matthew StokesCricket ECB, The Hundred, Mitchell Marsh, Marcus Stoinis, IPLAFLW Ireland women’s team, North Sydney OvalMedia Gus Gould, Phil Gould, AFL Media, NRL MediaLinks & References (for show notes)IBAC Operation Richmond Report — https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/investigations/operation-richmondNSW ICAC Operation Rosne Hearings (live) — https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/operation-rosneRalph Carr Conviction & Suppression Order Lift — The Age / Herald Sun (early Aug 2026)Cambridge / Jason Arday Coverage — The Guardian “Grotesque racism” piece; Times Higher Education investigationFDA Peptide Decision (6 peptides delisted) — Federal Register / FDA press release, late July 2026AFL Wildcard Round & Tanking Memo — AFL.com.au / The Age (Greg Swan memo leak)Tasmania Devils Announce Nigel Lappin — AFL.com.au / The Mercury (early Aug 2026)The Hundred 2026 Schedule & Rules — ECB / Sky SportsAFLW Ireland v Australia Highlights — Kayo / Fox Footy / AFLW YouTube

We had a bit of an echo issue with the sound so I had to do a manual edit and at times for the sake of your sanity, Chris' audio was cut out. But I did my best to keep it all in cause this is interesting stuff. Hopefully it works. Due to the slog of the edit I am resigning to AI shownotes. I am tired! These ones are brought to you by GPT-5.6 Terra with Thinking enabled. It's fine - my free year of perplexity is about to run out so I am making hay while the clankers are on my side. Enjoy! ------------------------Episode descriptionJack the Insider is joined by former lawyer and consumer advocate Chris Baker for an update on the Dominic Grubisa saga, before turning to the continuing legal adventures of former senator Rod Culleton and the broader risks of pseudolaw and sovereign-citizen-style claims.Chris discusses developments following the earlier Grubisa episode: bankruptcy and liquidation matters, concerns around company records and client data, the alleged continuation of property-training operations through new entities, and what affected consumers may face. The conversation then shifts to Rod Culleton’s ongoing litigation, electoral-law issues, bankruptcy disputes, and the danger of vulnerable people relying on misinformation when facing repossession or court action.Detailed show notes00:00 — Chris Baker returns. Jack welcomes back Chris Baker, who recaps Episode 209’s discussion of Dominic Grubisa, the asset-protection scheme, and the regulatory and court processes that followed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt01:40 — Bankruptcy, liquidation and CoreLogic. Chris discusses Grubisa’s bankruptcy and the liquidation of the principal trading company, including a judgment connected to the use of CoreLogic/RP Data property information.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt03:45 — Missing records and client data. The pair examine claims that company books, records, computers and databases cannot be accounted for, alongside concerns that a client database may still be used to contact former customers.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt06:10 — Asset transfers and bankruptcy scrutiny. Chris discusses the reported transfer of assets before bankruptcy and the potential for a bankruptcy trustee to investigate or seek recovery of transfers under the Bankruptcy Act.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt07:25 — Property Lovers and PropTix.ai. The discussion moves to the alleged continuation of similar property-program marketing through subsequent entities, including the Hong Kong-registered PropTix.ai, which Chris says was advertising to Australian consumers.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt14:50 — Regulators and unresolved questions. Jack and Chris question the pace and effectiveness of regulatory action, including the role of the NSW Law Society, the Legal Services Commissioner and other authorities. Chris reflects on the impact on people who engaged with the scheme and later participated in complaints or proceedings.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt21:45 — Enter “SovCit Rod.” The conversation pivots to Rod Culleton—former senator, recurring litigant and prominent pseudolaw figure—and the legal actions he has pursued in several courts.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt22:35 — Border closures and High Court litigation. Chris outlines Culleton’s efforts to challenge Western Australian border-closure laws, attempts to revive matters in the High Court, and subsequent proceedings in the Federal Court and NSW Supreme Court.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt27:10 — Habeas corpus for a court case? A discussion of Culleton’s attempt to invoke habeas corpus in relation to a matter remitted from the High Court to the Federal Court—and why the argument did not succeed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt28:15 — Electoral declarations and bankruptcy. Jack and Chris revisit Culleton’s election candidacies, convictions connected with candidate declarations, appeals, and the implications of an undischarged bankruptcy.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt31:05 — The long-running Lester dispute. The pair trace a dispute originating in commercial arrangements from around 2009, Culleton’s bankruptcy, and the succession of court proceedings that followed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt34:35 — Possible vexatious-litigant proceedings. Chris discusses an application seeking a vexatious-litigant order, what such an order may mean in practice, and why any restriction may be limited to particular litigation rather than a blanket ban.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt39:35 — The danger of repossession misinformation. Chris warns against claims that banks must obtain a particular type of order before enforcing a mortgage, distinguishing between judgment-creditor enforcement and a mortgagee’s powers. He argues that people in financial distress should not be encouraged to ignore lawful court orders or evade service.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt47:40 — Pseudolaw, “paper terrorism” and legal consequences. Jack and Chris discuss the recurring arguments deployed by pseudolaw adherents: claims about invalid constitutions, royal assent, the Crown, bills of exchange, and other theories repeatedly rejected by courts.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt54:20 — Why the movement persists. The episode considers how sovereign-citizen and pseudolaw narratives spread, why they appeal to people under pressure, and the cost—financial, legal and personal—when those arguments fail.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt1:01:25 — From online claims to real-world harm. The pair discuss the escalation from internet theories to courtroom disruption and risky conduct in real disputes involving debt, property, police and court processes.

This weeks ai slop is served up by DeepSeek v4 Pro. I tried to use Kimi but it got stuck generating the notes. So now you get this. Could be worse. Episode SummaryJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack return for a wide-ranging conversation that spans the turbulent state of Australian politics and the precarious state of global affairs. The episode opens with striking Redbridge polling data suggesting One Nation could pick up as many as 19 seats in the upcoming Victorian state election -- a result that would leave neither major party able to form government in its own right. The Jacks explore the mechanics of minority government, the prospect of a marriage of convenience between the Liberals and One Nation, and whether Labor voters in protest mode could deliver One Nation unexpected inroads into heartland seats.The domestic focus then shifts to the Australian economy. Drawing on former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty's recent analysis, the hosts dissect a bureaucracy more concerned with treating symptoms than causes, lamenting squandered billions on unused quarantine centres, infrastructure costs among the highest in the world, and a housing crisis driven by a failure to train enough workers. The conversation turns to political courage -- or the lack of it -- comparing today's risk-averse governing class with the Hawke-Keating reform era, when fringe benefits tax was meant to kill the long lunch but somehow did not.A spirited defence of Emerge Australia -- an advocacy group training GPs to diagnose and treat myalgic encephalomyelitis (chronic fatigue syndrome) -- highlights the government's decision to cut a mere $400,000 in funding, a move Jack the Insider brands disgraceful for an organisation serving an estimated 250,000 Australians. Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme reform also gets a hearing, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials.Internationally, the Jacks confront the escalating dangers of the Russia-Ukraine war. With Ukraine making Crimea increasingly uninhabitable and Vladimir Putin backed into a corner, the prospect of an attack on a NATO or NATO-aligned state looms. The conversation covers Russia's cancelled bond sale, the shifting power dynamic between Putin and Xi Jinping, and thousands of Russian passports arriving in Moldova -- a familiar prelude to intervention. On Iran, the hosts reflect on the Trump administration's military strikes, oil climbing past USD 100 a barrel, and the political consequences for the upcoming US midterm elections.The episode closes with sport: the FIFA World Cup (and Argentina's remarkable ability to unify the football world in mutual disdain), the AFL's handling of the Nicky Winmar domestic violence case and questions of consistency, the end of the Bazball era in English Test cricket, a warm tribute to the late Sir Garfield Sobers, and rugby union's new Nations Championship format.Timestamped Highlights(All timestamps adjusted +25 seconds to account for theme music.)00:00:26 -- Introduction and Banter Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open the show trading observations on air conditioning, long lunches, and the perils of sitting directly beneath the vent.00:01:32 -- One Nation's Victorian Polling Surge Redbridge polling data indicates One Nation could win as many as 19 seats in the Victorian state election. In an 88-seat legislature, that would make a majority for either major party almost impossible.00:02:52 -- Minority Government Mechanics Hong Kong Jack explains the constitutional pathway: if no party wins a majority, the sitting Premier gets the first conversation with the Governor and may be recommissioned to form government.00:04:20 -- A Three-Cornered Contest Jack the Insider argues the Allan government is at the end of the road, but the Liberal alternative inspires little confidence. One Nation may poll well in Labor heartland seats as protest voters look for an outlet that is not the Liberal Party.00:06:33 -- The Polling vs. the Pencil Hong Kong Jack predicts One Nation's polling numbers will soften once voters are alone in the booth with an HB pencil hovering over the ballot paper.00:08:32 -- Commonwealth Games Land in Glasgow The hosts acknowledge the Commonwealth Games have begun -- in Glasgow, not Victoria. The opening ceremony featured King Charles and Queen Camilla emerging from a Doctor Who TARDIS.00:10:50 -- Pauline Hanson and the Tommy Robinson Interview The Jacks dissect Hanson's decision to interview the controversial British figure, with Hong Kong Jack arguing the motivation is straightforward: publicity, good or bad.00:12:12 -- Factions Within One Nation Barnaby Joyce's visible discomfort with the Robinson interview signals internal tensions. Jack the Insider warns One Nation risks veering further towards the "lunar right."00:13:30 -- Two Australias: The Great Dog Divide A detour into the changing culture of pet ownership. Jack the Insider contrasts the utilitarian farm dogs of his Reservoir childhood with the multi-billion-dollar industry of designer dog beds, pushchairs, and booties.00:15:59 -- Bill Kelty's Economic Diagnosis Former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty delivers a blunt assessment: Australian governments have spent decades treating symptoms rather than causes -- quarantine centres never used, infrastructure costs at world-record levels, a housing crisis born of under-investment in skills.00:17:59 -- The Courage Deficit Hong Kong Jack argues the current government, like its recent predecessors, lacks political boldness. The Prime Minister's Labor conference speech seemed "spooked by One Nation" rather than offering a growth narrative.00:19:22 -- The Keating Comparison Jack the Insider revisits the Hawke-Keating reform era, noting the howls of outrage that greeted early reforms -- including fringe benefits tax, which was meant to "kill lunch" but somehow did not. The difference today: social media amplifies every backlash.00:23:02 -- Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Funding Cut An urgent segment on the defunding of Emerge Australia, an advocacy group that has trained roughly 10% of the nation's GPs in diagnosing and treating ME/CFS. The cut amounts to approximately $400,000 -- a sum Jack the Insider describes as negligible in public expenditure but catastrophic for the 250,000 Australians living with the condition.00:26:37 -- The PBS and Australia's Clinical Trial Problem Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials, leaving patients with rare conditions to raise extraordinary sums for overseas treatment. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's pricing structure may require root-and-branch reform, particularly for newly developed drugs.00:29:50 -- What Should Labor Do About One Nation? Hong Kong Jack's prescription is simple: fix the economy and stop saying silly things. One Nation will wither on the vine if economic growth returns.00:30:17 -- Derryn Hinch: The Human Headline Remembered The former broadcaster, senator, and Justice Party founder has died aged 82. The Jacks reflect on a complicated legacy -- a man who transformed Melbourne talkback radio and tabloid television, was twice married to Jacki Weaver, and whose profound impact on the media is tempered by a deeply troubling intervention in the justice system.00:32:00 -- The Glennon Case: When a Headline Cost Children Their Safety Jack the Insider recounts in detail how Hinch's decision to publicly name convicted paedophile priest Michael Glennon during an active trial led to the suspension of proceedings, an eventual overturned conviction, and a four-year window in which Glennon continued operating camps and abusing children -- as many as 20 additional victims.00:38:14 -- Hinch's Media Legacy Despite the Glennon tragedy, Hong Kong Jack credits Hinch with changing the sound of Melbourne radio. The talkback format he pioneered arguably saved stations like 3AW.00:40:32 -- Ukraine and the Battle for Crimea The Ukrainians cannot hold Crimea, but they are making it unliveable. Water, electricity, and supplies have been cut. Crimeans are fleeing en masse. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has effectively ceased to exist.00:42:13 -- Putin Backed Into a Corner Jack the Insider warns that Vladimir Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally. The spectre of an attack on a NATO country -- perhaps a Baltic state -- or on Moldova is real. Putin cannot sue for peace; it would mean the end of him.00:44:21 -- Russia's Economic Pressure Points Hong Kong Jack notes that Russia cancelled a regular bond sale last week after failing to find buyers. The economic squeeze is mounting. Putin and his deeply unpopular party are now being fused together ahead of elections.00:47:13 -- Russian Passports Arrive in Moldova Thousands of Russian passports have been shipped to Moldova -- the same playbook used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine before intervention.00:49:32 -- Iran, the Houthis, and Oil Above USD 100 US strikes on Iran continue. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have struck oil tankers. The price of crude has pushed past USD 100 a barrel -- a politically dangerous number for Donald Trump four months out from the midterms.00:50:33 -- The Netanyahu Pitch for Regime Change Jack the Insider recounts the scene from Swan and Haberman's book: Benjamin Netanyahu presenting a case for US-Israeli combined bombing to achieve regime change in Iran. Trump was impressed; Marco Rubio and the CIA director were not.00:52:56 -- US Midterms: The Democratic Candidate Problem The Democrats' prospects are muddied by candidate issues including the withdrawal of Graham Plattner over sexual assault allegations and the party's persistent inability to select candidates who genuinely connect with the white working class.00:54:40 -- Tim Waltz, John Kerry, and Authenticity Hong Kong Jack contrasts the Democrats' clumsy attempts to project authenticity -- Tim Waltz hunting, John Kerry windsurfing -- with the reality that Kerry was an ice hockey player who once attended a White House meeting with two black eyes from a congressional game.00:58:19 -- The Sickness in American Democracy Jack the Insider argues the two-party lock on presidential politics -- achieved partly by keeping third-party candidates off ballots in roughly 30 states -- is profoundly undemocratic. With 40% of voters now registering as independents, millions have no candidate who represents them.00:59:43 -- Can Trump Disrupt the Midterms? Hong Kong Jack analyses the constitutional limits on presidential interference in state-run elections. Any attempt to use emergency powers would go straight to court.01:03:43 -- Marine Le Pen: France's Next President? Polling around 67%, Le Pen is the frontrunner for the French presidential election. Her felony conviction for misusing EU funds appears to be no impediment.01:05:09 -- Andy Burnham's Fast Start as UK Prime Minister The new PM has hit the ground running with popular measures: a GBP 2 bus fare cap across England, 20% business rate cuts for pubs, clubs, and live music venues, and the scrapping of VAT on domestic electricity bills.01:07:36 -- Britain's Investment Challenge The biggest test for Burnham will be attracting investment. The UK has 11 million working-age citizens on benefits -- a figure now exceeding tax receipts.01:09:03 -- FIFA World Cup: Argentina Triumphs, Trump Photobombs Argentina are world champions, but not before a petition signed by millions demanded their exclusion from the final. Donald Trump appeared on the podium; the Spanish commemorative photos, the Jacks note, did not include him.01:11:07 -- The Refereeing and the Expansion The officiating was patchy, but the expanded tournament format was vindicated. Seeing Cape Verde, Australia, New Zealand, and Iran compete gave the event a genuinely global feel.01:14:23 -- Nicky Winmar, the AFL Hall of Fame, and Domestic Violence The Jacks grapple with the AFL's removal of Winmar from the Hall of Fame following a domestic violence conviction. Jack the Insider questions the consistency: Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett Sr. remain honoured. Hong Kong Jack suggests a suspension rather than permanent expulsion would have been more appropriate, arguing that football cannot be reserved for choirboys.01:19:06 -- Bazball's End: The McCallum Era Concludes Baz McCallum is out as England's Test coach after 49 Tests: 27 wins, 20 losses. Ten of the first eleven were victories; seven of the last nine were defeats. The hosts debate whether Bazball added to cricket's audience even if it could not sustainably win Test matches.01:23:20 -- Sir Garfield Sobers: The Greatest of All Time A warm tribute to the late West Indian legend. Jack the Insider recalls meeting Sobers at the Hilton in Barbados. Hong Kong Jack shares the story of Sobers -- completely ambidextrous -- playing golf off scratch left-handed and off two right-handed.01:27:53 -- Rugby Union's Nations Championship A new format pits Northern Hemisphere sides against Southern Hemisphere sides, culminating in finals at Twickenham. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical anyone will care which hemisphere wins. The 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, however, is selling tickets strongly.01:30:00 -- Sign-Off Jack the Insider thanks listeners and apologises for the previous week's absence due to illness. The hosts promise to return on or around 31 July, though Hong Kong Jack advises against buying "20-year futures in us."Social Media PostsTwitter / XPost 1: One Nation could win up to 19 seats in the Victorian election. On this week's episode, we break down what a three-cornered contest means for the major parties -- and why minority government may be coming to Spring Street. Listen now.Post 2: "Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally." This week we examine the escalating dangers in Ukraine, Russian passports in Moldova, and why oil above USD 100 spells trouble for Trump. New episode of The Two Jacks out now.Post 3: $400,000. That is what it costs to train GPs across Australia to diagnose and treat ME/CFS -- and the government has cut it. We discuss why this quiet defunding of Emerge Australia is a disgrace. Full episode linked.Post 4: Derryn Hinch transformed Australian media. He also, by his own grandstanding, gave a paedophile priest four more years of access to children. This week we examine the complicated legacy of the Human Headline.Post 5: Bazball is dead. Garry Sobers is immortal. Nicky Winmar is out of the Hall of Fame. Our sport segment this week covers the big calls in cricket, AFL, rugby, and a World Cup final that unified the planet -- against Argentina.FacebookThis week on The Two Jacks: Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack navigate a political landscape where the old rules no longer apply.Redbridge polling has One Nation on track to become kingmaker in Victoria. We explore what minority government would actually look like -- and whether Labor can cling to power even if it finishes second.Bill Kelty says Australia's bureaucracy treats symptoms, not causes. We ask: where has political courage gone, and could anyone sell reform the way Keating did?From a USD 400,000 funding cut that will devastate chronic fatigue sufferers, to pharmaceutical companies abandoning Australian clinical trials, to a PBS in need of root-and-branch reform -- the domestic agenda is packed.Internationally, the picture is darker. Putin is cornered in Ukraine. Iran burns. Oil has passed USD 100. And the US midterms are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's foreign policy.Plus: Derryn Hinch's complicated legacy, Argentina's World Cup, Nicky Winmar and the AFL's consistency problem, the death of Bazball, and a toast to Sir Garfield Sobers -- the greatest cricketer who ever lived.Listen wherever you get your podcasts.InstagramCaption for episode artwork: Episode 165 is live. This week: One Nation's Victorian moment, Putin's dangerous corner, the Hinch legacy, and why a $400K funding cut matters more than you think. Link in bio. 🇦🇺LinkedInThis week's episode of The Two Jacks tackles the intersection of politics, economics, and accountability.We analyse Redbridge polling showing One Nation could secure up to 19 seats in the Victorian state election -- a result that would fundamentally reshape the state's political architecture. The discussion raises serious questions about how minority government would function in practice and what protest voting in Labor heartland seats means for the major parties' long-term strategies.Bill Kelty's recent economic commentary provides the framework for a broader conversation about bureaucratic inertia, infrastructure cost blowouts, and the housing crisis. The comparison with the Hawke-Keating reform era is instructive: today's political class appears to lack both the courage to pursue structural reform and the narrative skills to sell it.Other topics include the defunding of Emerge Australia (a case study in the real-world impact of line-item budget decisions), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's growing tension with global pharmaceutical companies, and the deteriorating geopolitical situation across Ukraine, Iran, and the broader Middle East.

We are back! And this week we are keeping it simple and silly. While I am looking into Karl Stefanovic's main sponsor Ringers Western - I have got square eyes and research fatigue. Reading judgements is BORING! So this week we are having some fun. AusAlert is going to make our phones scream FIRE in a building and you can't turn it off. But is it going to make you explode? Will the unvaccinated be spared? The answers will shock and astonish - but don't worry you can buy a solution. We look at Barnaby Joyce and Teeny Weeny having a rubbish week. Barnaby yelled at his dog on the ABC making people wonder what he's like at home. Teeny Weeny is copping shit because a few journos have finally noticed that he is barking mad. Babet went to England and hated it because Twitter has ruined him. He really is an idiot. Enjoy!

This weeks shownotes are brought to you by Microsoft CoPilot - and I think that's funny. Why? Because nobody really uses this outside of work. But here I am - using it. But I can all hear you say - "but Joel, producing the Two Jacks is essentially work" and I would agree. But let's not get carried away on such things. But I do get to compare and contrast AI models. And I do like the podcast (when the audio isn't fucked) so I guess I'm breaking even. Right?Highlights: copilot refuses to acknowledge my prompt that clearly states Jack is not me (he's just using the login) and also the FUCKING NERVE at the end to say it's produced by Two Jacks. Copilot suuuuucks.------------------------------------------------------------------------Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest stories: a downgraded Australian growth forecast, renewed Middle East tensions and oil-price risk, the cost of housing regulation, a controversial podcast appearance by the Prime Minister, new Pacific security ties, UK political drama, and a full sports roundup. The conversation mixes policy analysis, local anecdotes and sharp takes on political judgement.From the transcript: “The firm expects headline, inflation to remain elevated above 4% and unemployment to peak at 5%.”Shownotes with timestamps(All timestamps advanced by 25 seconds to allow for theme music)00:00:25 — Welcome and housekeeping  Hosts: Jack the Insider (speaking as Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack open the show and trade personal updates (dental woes, home repairs).00:02:12 — Australian economy update  Topic: Deloitte downgrades growth to 1.3% this financial year; inflation and unemployment outlook; RBA commentary on Commonwealth spending. Key takeaway: growth is slowing and inflation remains a problem.“Australia’s growth outlook has deteriorated over the past six months. The economy is still expanding, but growth has slowed and the outlook has become more fragile.”00:06:05 — Middle East and oil risk  Topic: Iran, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, US options and the long-term economic impact of sustained higher oil prices. Discussion of the limits of military options and the political timing pressures in the US.00:11:36 — Housing, regulation and planning delays  Topic: RBA 2018 study on Sydney housing regulation costs; local DA delays, heritage listings and the cost of permits. Practical points on streamlining approvals and supply-side fixes.00:20:54 — Political gaffe: Prime Minister on a podcast  Topic: Reaction to the PM’s Nova-style podcast appearance and awkward answers; media-advice failures; debate over whether senior politicians should accept small‑reach podcast interviews.00:31:40 — Pacific security and Fiji treaty  Topic: New treaty with Fiji makes it Australia’s fourth alliance partner; strategic context and China’s regional activity; soft-power vs bidding-war approaches.00:35:40 — UK politics and Nigel Farage  Topic: Farage resigns his seat and triggers a by-election amid funding questions; Andy Burnham’s expected rise to Prime Minister and the legitimacy challenge for leaders chosen without a general election.00:46:58 — Europe and Germany’s budget push  Topic: Germany pushes back on EU spending plans and flags competitiveness concerns; energy and industrial cost pressures.00:55:50 — Russia, Ukraine and military developments  Topic: Ukrainian strikes, Crimea pressure, and the risks of escalation; discussion of cruise-missile production and defensive needs.01:12:30 — Sport roundup  Topics covered: Women’s cricket dominance; World Cup highlights (Argentina, Norway, Mbappé); State of Origin; AFL/NRL broadcast deals and coaching moves; track standout Cameron Myers.Key quotes from the episodeOn the economy: “Inflation has re-accelerated, interest rates have moved higher and the oil price shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East is not yet fully resolved.”On housing regulation: Hong Kong Jack: “If you could have that $380,000 that it was seven years ago that comes onto the cost of building a house in Sydney, just think how much better off people in Sydney would be.”What we liked and what to watchWorth following: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any new RBA/Treasury commentary on growth and inflation.Local watch: NSW planning reforms and ICAC inquiries into property development.Politics: the fallout from the PM’s podcast appearance and the UK by-election dynamics around Nigel Farage.How to listen and get involvedSubscribe on your favourite podcast app.Send us feedback or story tips — Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack read listener mail each week.Share this episode if you found the housing or geopolitics segments useful.Produced by Two Jacks — Episode 164. Thanks for listening; we’ll be back next week.

Listeners! Thanks for your patience! I've been sick and Jack's been distracted but you can't keep a good bitch down and we are back with a news ep to keep you going. Up first we look at the AI slop that is coming from Indonesia and elsewhere and ask - are they actually being paid by dark money or just making money from clicks? In Idaho a woman is charged with the murder of her two children after they died in her care and she did a classic antivax PR tour faciliated by RFK Jr.'s former organisation Children's Health Defence. It's gross. And of course we have to laugh at Nigel who though he was so clever to call a byelection to make a big song and dance about how victimised he is for being held to account for taking a shitload of money for dubious reasons. Now that idiot has to argue with a bin. But - a lot of other egomaniacs are getting involved and may just ruin the funniest thing ever. In SovCits there is a revelation on Rod but a classic case of pointless stupidity in a courtroom where something as simple as probate turned into a witchhunt. A literal witchhunt. Babet is an idiot but in one post, I can't entirely disagree. But I also don't disagree because, as usual, he can't just be normal. Enjoy!

Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings. This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something. Nah. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, recorded on 2 July 2026, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take a wide-ranging look at the political, economic and sporting stories shaping Australia and the world.The episode opens with Australia’s housing market, including recent house price falls, the risks facing first home buyers using the 5 per cent deposit scheme, and the dangers of negative equity. The Jacks then turn to the striking rise of One Nation, debating whether the surge is a genuine long-term disruption in Australian politics or partly a mirage fuelled by social media, disinformation and dissatisfaction with the major parties.Victorian politics comes under close scrutiny, with discussion of Moira Deeming, the Matthew Guy allegation, Jess Wilson’s leadership, and Jacinta Allan’s handling of the Big Build controversies. Internationally, the episode covers Andy Burnham’s likely move into Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s defence spending announcement, Trump-era decision-making as explored in Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman’s book, congressional stock trading in the United States, and the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.The show wraps with sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement from international cricket, England’s reckless loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another World Cup final.00:00:25 — Welcome to Episode 163Jack the Insider opens the show and marks the start of the new financial year in Australia. Hong Kong Jack joins from Hong Kong, where the previous day marked Reunification Day, the anniversary of the handover to the People’s Republic of China.00:01:10 — Housing Prices, First Home Buyers and Negative EquityThe Jacks begin with Australia’s housing market and recent reports of price declines in suburbs with strong uptake of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. They unpack the risk of highly leveraged first home buyers falling into negative equity, where the debt on a property exceeds its current market value.Hong Kong Jack recalls the early 1990s Melbourne housing market, when banks were reluctant to sell distressed inner-suburban properties because doing so would have further damaged the market. The discussion compares that period with the global financial crisis in the United States and Ireland, where property crashes led to widespread foreclosures.00:04:00 — Can Australian House Prices Keep Rising?The conversation turns to whether Australian housing can continue producing the large capital gains many homeowners have come to expect. Jack the Insider argues that prices in Sydney and Melbourne cannot keep rising at the same pace without locking younger buyers out of the market.Hong Kong Jack makes the broader point that Australia’s tax and investment settings have made owner-occupied housing unusually attractive compared with other investments, contributing to long-term affordability problems.00:06:36 — Could Money Shift from Housing to the ASX?Jack the Insider speculates that if housing becomes less reliable as an investment vehicle, more money may flow into equities and the Australian share market. The discussion also touches on the weak outlook for CBD commercial property, with work-from-home trends continuing to affect demand.00:07:25 — The 5 Per Cent Deposit SchemeThe Jacks assess the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme for first home buyers. Hong Kong Jack says it may provide some help for young people trying to enter the market, but it is not a magic solution to housing affordability.They discuss the practical challenge of borrowing large sums with very little equity, especially if prices flatten or fall. The risk for banks and borrowers is that buyers may end up with little or no equity for some time.00:10:41 — The One Nation SurgeThe episode moves to One Nation’s rise in the polls. Jack the Insider notes that One Nation polled around 6.5 per cent nationally at the previous federal election but is now polling far higher, with some figures placing the party in the 20s.The Jacks discuss possible reasons for the surge, including public dissatisfaction with the major parties, the political aftermath of the Bondi terror attack, and the way right-wing voters are shifting away from the Coalition.00:11:48 — Social Media, Bots and the “Mirage” of One NationJack the Insider raises concerns about foreign influence, AI-generated videos, disinformation and bot-like social media activity targeting Australian politics. He cites examples of fake or misleading material involving Natalie Barr, Anthony Albanese and claims about Labor figures selling property after the budget.He argues that some of the online activity appears designed to attack both the government and the Coalition while indirectly benefiting One Nation. He describes part of the One Nation surge as a “mirage”, while acknowledging that real-world results, such as the South Australian election and the Farrar by-election, show the party has genuine support.00:18:20 — Is One Nation the Biggest Political Disruption Since World War II?Hong Kong Jack argues that, even allowing for some mirage factor, One Nation’s polling makes it the biggest disruption to Australian politics since World War II. He compares the party’s current position with the historical performance of the DLP, Australian Democrats and Greens, none of which reached similar national polling levels.Jack the Insider counters that One Nation’s rise appears to be splintering the right-wing vote rather than pulling substantial support from Labor or the left. The Jacks agree the Liberal Party has a major strategic problem: it must rebuild its primary vote while deciding how directly to confront One Nation.00:21:56 — What Should the Liberal Party Do?The Jacks discuss the Liberal Party’s path back to competitiveness. Hong Kong Jack says the party should stop obsessing over polls and focus on hard policy work, local campaigning and the basics of politics.Jack the Insider argues the Liberals will eventually need to attack One Nation directly. His view is that conservative voters must be told clearly that a vote for One Nation is likely to help return Labor to government or create instability.00:23:38 — Pauline Hanson, Policy Uncertainty and Senate AttendanceJack the Insider criticises Pauline Hanson’s policy understanding and parliamentary work ethic, citing her position on maternity leave and Senate attendance. He argues that One Nation’s shifting policy framework and uncertainty will become more apparent under greater scrutiny.The Jacks also discuss preference flows and whether the Coalition can rely on One Nation preferences if the right-wing vote remains fragmented.00:26:51 — Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy and the Victorian LiberalsThe conversation shifts to Victorian Liberal politics. Jack the Insider discusses Moira Deeming, who is likely to face disendorsement, and says Jess Wilson appears to be handling internal party discipline more effectively than previous Liberal leaders.The Jacks examine Deeming’s allegation involving Matthew Guy and the CCTV footage that emerged afterward. Jack the Insider argues that the Victorian Liberals must deal firmly with internal destabilisation if they are to present themselves as a credible alternative government.00:31:00 — Don Farrell on One Nation and the Bondi AttackHong Kong Jack notes that Labor frontbencher Don Farrell has attributed One Nation’s rise partly to Coalition division and partly to a post-Bondi surge. Jack the Insider questions whether the Bondi attack will become a lasting voting determinant, suggesting it may prove to be a temporary political factor.The discussion also covers One Nation and the Greens voting against proposed bans on hate preachers, despite rhetoric about the issue after Bondi.00:33:08 — Newspoll, Labor’s Position and Coalition TroubleJack the Insider discusses polling showing Labor improving, One Nation slipping slightly and the Coalition struggling. He argues that the Coalition must win back a large share of One Nation’s support if it is to become competitive.The Jacks consider whether One Nation has reached its high watermark or whether the movement has deeper staying power. They also note that Labor and the Greens together remain in a strong position if the conservative vote continues to fracture.00:38:08 — Jacinta Allan and Victoria’s Big Build ProblemsVictorian Premier Jacinta Allan comes under scrutiny over the Big Build projects and allegations surrounding inflated costs and union influence. The Jacks discuss reporting by The Age’s investigative unit and Nick McKenzie, including claims about contractors being asked whether they could do deals with unions.Hong Kong Jack says Allan’s position looks increasingly terminal, while Jack the Insider says there is widespread anger among Victorians toward the government. They agree the timing of the controversy is politically damaging for Labor.00:41:07 — Could Victorian Labor Replace Jacinta Allan?The Jacks debate whether Victorian Labor has the courage or capacity to replace Allan before the election. Jack the Insider argues that taking over now would be a political kamikaze job, given the scale of Labor’s problems.They compare Allan with Daniel Andrews, whom Jack the Insider describes as a much stronger communicator and political operator. The discussion also considers whether Labor still has a narrow path to victory if the right-wing vote splits between the Liberals, One Nation and other parties.00:45:35 — The Age, “Uniparty” Claims and Victorian Labor’s DefendersHong Kong Jack shares a social media post attacking The Age as part of a supposed One Nation-Liberal-National “uniparty” media operation. The Jacks use it to illustrate the type of rhetoric surrounding Victorian politics and the difficulty Labor faces as corruption and governance issues dominate the debate.00:46:46 — Joh Bjelke-Petersen Comparisons and Victorian CorruptionThe conversation touches on comparisons between Victoria’s current political troubles and the corruption scandals that brought down Joh Bjelke-Petersen in Queensland. Jack the Insider notes commentary suggesting that corruption can become the defining factor that ends a long-running government.They also discuss the relationship between Victorian Labor and sections of the union movement, including the role of unions in major construction projects.00:50:30 — Andy Burnham’s UK ProgramThe Jacks move to UK politics and Andy Burnham’s expected rise to the prime ministership. Hong Kong Jack outlines Burnham’s program, including a proposal to govern partly from Manchester and devolve more power to regions and councils.Jack the Insider frames this as part of a broader devolution agenda. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical, arguing that devolution has not clearly succeeded in Scotland or Wales and may not deliver the growth Burnham is promising.00:53:59 — Keir Starmer’s Defence Spending AnnouncementKeir Starmer’s proposed defence spending boost comes under scrutiny. Hong Kong Jack argues the numbers do not add up and describes the announcement as “smoke and mirrors”.The Jacks also discuss Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions and how she may find Burnham a tougher opponent than Starmer.00:56:59 — “Died” or “Passed Away”?In a lighter aside, the Jacks discuss euphemisms around death, particularly the increasingly common use of “passed” or “passed away”. Hong Kong Jack says he prefers plain language and warns Jack the Insider not to say he has “passed” when the time comes.00:58:28 — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Trump’s Decision-MakingThe conversation moves to the United States and the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. Jack the Insider discusses material about Trump’s decision-making style, particularly the tendency to favour gut instinct even when advice from officials points in another direction.The Jacks discuss US decision-making around Iran and the dangers of ignoring structured advice in favour of personal instinct.01:04:11 — AI, Congress and Insider TradingThe Jacks discuss claims that AI tools have exposed widespread conflicts between congressional stock trades and the legislative work of US politicians. The system described cross-references stock purchases with bills and committee activity.Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack stress that this is a bipartisan problem, not confined to one party or one administration. They note that the STOCK Act was intended to address congressional trading conflicts but has not produced meaningful enforcement.01:08:47 — Trump, Crypto, Wealth and CorruptionThe discussion broadens to Donald Trump’s personal enrichment, including crypto ventures, the Qatar jet issue and business opportunities involving Trump family members. Jack the Insider argues that Trump appears to be benefiting heavily from his second term.Hong Kong Jack says the presidency is difficult to regulate in this area, while Congress has shown little willingness to police itself.01:13:36 — Russia-Ukraine War UpdateJack the Insider discusses Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow, including attacks on fuel infrastructure and refineries. The Jacks note reports of fuel shortages, long queues and unrest at Russian service stations.Hong Kong Jack explains that Ukraine appears to be targeting specific refinery components that Russia cannot easily replace. The Jacks also discuss reports of Russian troop movements, the pressure on Crimea, and the possibility of political instability inside Russia if the war continues to turn against Moscow.01:18:34 — Drone Warfare and Moscow’s VulnerabilityThe Jacks reflect on how drone warfare has transformed modern conflict. Jack the Insider describes footage of Ukrainian drones reaching Moscow while Russian air defences fired ineffectively.They note that when the invasion began, few expected Ukraine to hold out for years, let alone gain the upper hand in key areas through targeted strikes and technological adaptation.01:20:15 — Ben Stokes Retires from International CricketThe sports segment begins with Ben Stokes’ surprise retirement from international cricket. Jack the Insider describes watching the announcement unfold during England’s Test against New Zealand and says the moment shifted the entire atmosphere of the match.The Jacks argue that England’s focus turned into a farewell lap for Stokes rather than a serious attempt to win or save the Test.01:22:10 — England’s Reckless Chase and New Zealand’s Great WinThe Jacks criticise England’s approach to the run chase, including the decision to open with Stokes and the reckless batting that followed. They praise New Zealand for a disciplined, hard-fought victory and highlight Daryl Mitchell’s courageous century on a difficult wicket.Hong Kong Jack says New Zealand’s series win deserves major recognition, especially given their record away from home under their captain.01:25:16 — New Zealand’s Strength and England’s Bazball ProblemThe Jacks discuss New Zealand’s strengths: preparation, fielding, resilience and intent. They contrast this with England’s loose approach and the possible end of the Bazball era.Jack the Insider says Ben Stokes has been a wonderful player and match-winner but argues that England now faces serious leadership and management problems. The Jacks debate the futures of Brendon McCullum, Rob Key and England’s Test setup.01:32:19 — World Cup, France and BrazilThe Jacks briefly discuss the World Cup, noting the difficulty of keeping track of the tournament but identifying France as looking particularly strong. Brazil and Norway are also mentioned as teams to watch.01:32:47 — State of Origin PreviewThe conversation turns to State of Origin, with the Blues heading to Lang Park. Jack the Insider says New South Wales have only rarely won a series decider there and does not see it happening this time.01:33:15 — AFL Fixtures and Broadcast FrustrationsThe Jacks preview upcoming AFL matches, including Geelong versus Brisbane, Sydney versus the Bulldogs, and Richmond versus Carlton. Jack the Insider questions the logic of the AFL fixture, particularly overlapping games and the lack of Saturday afternoon free-to-air football.01:36:19 — Australian Women’s Cricket Team Reaches Another FinalJack the Insider notes that Australia’s women’s cricket team has reached another ICC World Cup final after beating India. England and South Africa are due to play for the other spot in the final.He praises the Australian side for remaining a powerful force despite changes from previous line-ups.01:37:11 — Listener Feedback and Sign-OffJack the Insider closes the episode by thanking Hong Kong Jack for his opinions and preparation. Listeners are encouraged to send in comments, criticisms and issues they would like the Two Jacks to tackle in future episodes.Hong Kong Jack jokingly asks listeners not to send anything complimentary.-- Dunno why it did this but it gave another show description? Whatever nobody is still reading at this point. Short Episode DescriptionJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Australia’s housing jitters, the risks facing first home buyers, One Nation’s polling surge, and the Coalition’s strategic dilemma. They also examine Victorian Labor’s Big Build troubles, Jacinta Allan’s leadership problems, Andy Burnham’s UK agenda, Trump-era decision-making, congressional stock trading, Ukraine’s drone war against Russia and a huge week in sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement and New Zealand’s Test triumph over England.Long Episode DescriptionIn episode 163 of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack begin with Australia’s housing market, where falling prices in some first home buyer suburbs raise questions about the 5 per cent deposit scheme and the risk of negative equity.The major political focus is One Nation’s dramatic rise in the polls. Is it a genuine realignment of Australian politics, the biggest disruption since World War II, or partly a mirage inflated by social media, disinformation and frustration with the major parties? The Jacks examine what this means for the Liberal Party, why the conservative vote is splintering, and how Labor may benefit.In Victoria, the Jacks look at Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy, Jess Wilson, Jacinta Allan and the Big Build controversies that continue to put pressure on the state government. Overseas, they discuss Andy Burnham’s UK program, Keir Starmer’s defence spending claims, Trump’s reliance on instinct over advice, AI-driven scrutiny of congressional stock trading, and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure.The episode finishes with sport: Ben Stokes’ international retirement, England’s disastrous Test loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another final.

This weeks AI slop is brought to you by GLM 5.1 - a weird model I have never heard of before. Funnily enough, it kinda all sounds the same at this point. Still, half decent job I think. Episode 162 covers a sweeping range of domestic and international news. The budget has cleared the Senate with Greens amendments on NDIS oversight and the blocking of superannuation for housing purchases, while the opposition fumbles its response. Property markets are feeling the chill, with auction clearance rates down and investors spooked by negative gearing changes. In the UK, Keir Starmer has resigned after a failed premiership -- described by one BBC journalist as someone utterly disinterested in the basic skills of leadership -- and Andy Burnham looks set to take over, with market jitters already building around the prospect of Ed Miliband as Chancellor. The Iran memorandum of understanding gets a sceptical examination: it is little more than an agreement to talk, bought by a Trump administration desperate for a pre-midterm win. Meanwhile, US missile stockpiles are running critically low, with an $80 billion replenishment request and a $1.5 trillion total defence budget underscoring the cost of recent conflicts. Back home, One Nation's push for a "monoculture" and forced property sales for permanent residents gets a thorough dismantling, and the global football World Cup, Carlton's AFL resurgence, and England's cricketing woes round out the show.00:25 - Welcome and episode introduction; Hong Kong Jack checks in from a sweltering Hong Kong, discussing the annual exodus of expats on business-class contracts.01:50 - Ukraine's stunning military comeback: a single bridge now links Russia to Crimea, with the rest of claimed territory back in Ukrainian hands.02:38 - The budget passes the Senate. Greens wring concessions on NDIS oversight and block the use of superannuation for housing, but Hong Kong Jack notes the Greens have only agreed to extend the committee talking about the NDIS, not to the measures themselves.04:26 - The opposition's disastrous budget response. Dennis Shanahan's brutal assessment: Angus Taylor was handed a penalty shot with a prone goalkeeper and still missed. Toxic taxes, dangerous deals -- the alliteration that murdered a political attack.07:00 - Tax reform legislation passes the House: the 250 Working Australians Tax Offset, staged tax cuts, and early moves on CGT and negative gearing. But certainty is in short supply -- investors and superannuants are left wondering what the final rules will actually look like.08:31 - Two core failures of the budget: it does almost nothing for growth, and the consequences were not properly thought through.10:01 - Fuel excise suspension: a temporary reprieve, but as electric vehicles soak up 20% of the market and pay zero road tax, a new user-pays model is inevitable. Logbooks, GPS tracking, or something uglier?13:26 - Budget benefits feel distant to renters and the young, while the property market cools. Auction clearance rates have dropped to roughly 50%.16:58 - Negative gearing changes from July 2027: anecdotal evidence suggests investors are already looking to offload. The Treasury forecasts around 2% growth in residential property, but Hong Kong Jack argues a 5-10% drop is politically survivable for most homeowners.18:27 - Teaser for next episode: US congressional stock-picking, Trump and Putin, and broader corruption in public office.18:45 - UK politics. Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister -- the seventh PM in ten years. A devastating BBC assessment: "In all my years covering politics, I have never met anyone so lacking in an interest in the skills a leader needs."20:50 - Starmer's fatal flaw: like Kevin Rudd, he governed without the permission of his parliamentary party. He was dismissive of the collegiality Westminster democracy demands.22:57 - Starmer did not go to the palace -- he phoned in his resignation. Hong Kong Jack notes the contrast with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss making the journey to Balmoral.24:12 - Andy Burnham looks certain to become PM, with rivals bought off with portfolios. But if Ed Miliband is appointed Chancellor, bond markets could punish the UK hard.26:00 - UK gilt yields at 6%. The debt interest bill is enormous, and Burnham has not put forward a single policy for reducing government spending or creating growth.26:35 - Burnham's policies: incremental re-nationalisation of railways, and nationalising water services -- requiring massive compensation payments. Not one word on spending reduction.28:59 - Brexit has not delivered. The "Singapore of Europe" model that could have worked was never pursued. Instead, it has destabilised the UK politically and socially.32:06 - The political class resisted what voters wanted on Brexit. That disconnect with the electorate has still not been healed -- the rise of Reform is the evidence.33:47 - Burnham says this is Labour's last chance. Jack the Insider sees potential party fracture; Hong Kong Jack is not convinced it is the death of Labour.38:12 - Did Russia influence Brexit? Jack the Insider argues foreign interference at least played a role; Hong Kong Jack insists it was a genuine grassroots movement.38:56 - Grassroots movements are easily astroturfed. "You can take it to the bank that Putin is having a good old giggle about Brexit."40:50 - Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened closure but CENTCOM reports the waterway remains open, albeit not operating normally.42:10 - The Iran MOU gives Trump the political fix he needs before midterms. Approval ratings have cratered to 30%.43:32 - The MOU is merely an agreement to sit down and talk. Nothing in it is guaranteed to appear in a final deal.44:49 - US missile stockpiles: Pete Hegseth requests $80 billion just to replenish. The US fired 130-250 SM-3 interceptors at $28.7 million each, up to 290 THAAD interceptors at $15.5 million each, and over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles.47:58 - The conflict cost $29 billion in direct expenditures, exposing massive supply chain bottlenecks. The Trump administration now requests a staggering $1.5 trillion total defence budget for FY2027.49:12 - Military innovation Supercharges after conflict: drones, shoulder-fired interceptors, and cheaper alternatives to expensive missile defence systems.50:51 - Spending 3% of GDP on defence is fine in principle, but Australia has wasted enormous sums over decades. The money must be spent better.52:54 - Monoculture. Following Pauline Hanson's National Press Club speech, a deep dive into what "monoculture" actually means -- and whether it means anything at all.54:42 - Denmark's integration model: language tests, employment self-sufficiency periods, civic knowledge programs. Denmark insists migrants become Danish before gaining permanent status.55:41 - Europe's weakness: no pathway to become truly French or German. Turkish guest workers from the 1950s remain Turkish guest workers. Australia's approach has been different.56:32 - One Nation's policy would create tiers of Australians. The proposal to force permanent residents to sell their homes is legally questionable and politically volatile.59:04 - Can the High Court block forced property sales? Hong Kong Jack thinks it probably would not intervene. Jack the Insider sees ugliness: bailiffs at doors, fire sales of homes.01:01:35 - The distinction between permanent residents and citizens: most PR holders see it as a stepping stone to citizenship, but 5-6 year citizenship processing backlogs trap people in between.01:04:06 - Foreign Investment Review Board restrictions already limit student visa holders to properties capped at roughly $1-1.5 million, with mandatory sale within three years of departure.01:07:26 - The monoculture idea cannot work. You cannot have immigration and monoculture simultaneously.01:08:14 - Australian multiculturalism is fundamentally different to the European model that Merkel, Cameron, and Sarkozy all declared a failure in 2015.01:08:57 - One Nation's rise warrants closer examination of where the money and promotion are coming from. Teased for next episode.01:10:45 - Barbecue culture: the undeniable truth that four pints while barbecuing is perfectly acceptable, and Australian outdoor kitchens have reversed the old pattern -- cooking outside, bathroom inside.01:13:46 - FIFA World Cup. Australia's T20 series win over Bangladesh passes almost unnoticed.01:15:12 - 40,000 Colombians in Australia celebrating their team. The ABC tracks down Cape Verde's diaspora -- 20 people in Australia -- including a centre-back who got his international call-up via LinkedIn.01:16:36 - Australia vs Paraguay: a win guarantees progression. The entire nation may stop working at 1:30pm.01:18:27 - A blunt assessment of Australia's performance against the USA: 65% possession for the opposition, very shaky with the ball.01:18:47 - Netherlands looking the strongest at the tournament. Brazil, Switzerland, Norway, and Argentina all impressing.01:20:32 - Erling Haaland's charming post-match interview: "We have France next and they'll probably beat us, but then they'll probably go all the way and win the World Cup."01:22:39 - Rugby Union: is the death of Australian rugby overstated? Ticket sales for the Rugby World Cup are booming at 650,000, but Super Rugby is in decline and may not survive in its current format.01:24:39 - Anti-siphoning laws and the shifting broadcast landscape as telcos muscle into sports rights.01:26:06 - Carlton's extraordinary AFL season: won one, lost eight, sacked the coach, won five straight under an interim. Six players aged 21 or younger, two of them 18. Patrick Cripps is rattling up Brownlow votes.01:27:22 - Harry Dean should win the Rising Star. The forward line works without a monster key forward.01:30:06 - Wade Dirk, the rookie from Darwin, holds Jesse Hogan to one goal while getting 20 touches himself.01:30:52 - Fremantle look the best side in the competition. Buddy Franklin still tips Brisbane.01:31:58 - Collingwood: marking time. The senior champions are still carrying the side while the next generation struggles.01:33:14 - Ben Stokes recalled to the England cricket side -- essentially picked because he is captain. England thrashed by 253 runs by New Zealand at the Oval.01:35:22 - Gideon Ha's devastating summary of England's Oval test: "England hit bottom, keep digging. Five changes, two blokes unavailable because they were on the piss, one bloke out because his wife was pregnant, old stager as emergency captain, no spinner, a backstop as keeper, and four number 11s."01:36:26 - If England lose at Trent Bridge next week, there will be hell to pay. An Ashes tour looms next year.

Okay so I got Claude Opus 4.6 to do the shownotes this week and my god does it suck. I always thought Claude was good. Anthropic are the ones who refused to automate weapons entirely and made Pete Hegseth ANGERY or at least more pissed off than usual. This sucked. The shownotes don't have timed sections because Claude is too stupid to see that there are indeed timestamps in the transcript. The titles suck too. What a crappy clanker. If this is what it does for two jacks shownotes it ain't ready to bomb villages. -------------------------------------------------------------------Episode summaryJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a crowded week of news, moving from the latest discussion around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to the political temperature in Australia following Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance. Along the way, they explore media reaction, public sentiment, political strategy and the broader direction of Western politics, before shifting gears to the sporting moments commanding Australian attention, including football, rugby league and cricket.Show notesIn this episode, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack range across the major stories shaping the week, beginning with international affairs and the renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear position. They revisit the 2015 nuclear deal, discuss the implications of newer diplomatic understandings, and consider what recent developments could mean for the region, military stability and the wider geopolitical balance.The conversation then turns to Australian politics, with a detailed discussion of Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, the response it generated, and what that says about the present state of political debate in Australia. The hosts examine how media framing, cultural anxieties and voter sentiment interact, and what these reactions may reveal about broader political trends.From there, the episode widens out to global politics and economics, touching on shifts in the United Kingdom, tensions within Labour politics, and recurring concerns around American political culture and governance.The episode closes on sport, with reaction to football World Cup developments, State of Origin rugby league and the latest talking points in Australian cricket, giving the discussion a distinctly local finish after a broad sweep through international and domestic affairs.Key topics covered:Iran’s nuclear program, the JCPOA and regional security implicationsThe strategic meaning of newer diplomatic agreements and understandingsPauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearanceMedia response, censorship concerns and political messaging in AustraliaBroader shifts in UK and US politicsFootball World Cup developmentsState of Origin and rugby league storylinesAustralian cricket updatesPredictions about elections, public mood and political changeEpisode information versionJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in news, politics and sport. They examine the evolving debate around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA, assess the fallout from Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, and explore what media reaction says about the state of Australian politics. The conversation also takes in developments in UK and US politics before wrapping with football, rugby league and cricket highlights that round out the week for Australian audiences.Separate timestamped highlights shownotesI can structure these now, but I cannot responsibly insert exact adjusted timecodes without the transcript’s original timestamps. Once the timestamped transcript text is available, each listed time should simply have 25 seconds added to account for the theme music.Timestamped highlights00:00:25 – Episode introduction and the major themes of the week00:00:25 – Iran, the 2015 JCPOA and the significance of the latest developments00:00:25 – Regional risks, military implications and the broader geopolitical picture00:00:25 – Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and why it landed so strongly00:00:25 – Media reaction, public framing and the question of political censorship00:00:25 – What the debate says about Australian political strategy and voter mood00:00:25 – Political trends in the UK and tensions within Labour00:00:25 – US politics, corruption concerns and wider institutional trust00:00:25 – Football World Cup discussion and major sporting headlines00:00:25 – State of Origin and rugby league reaction00:00:25 – Australian cricket updates00:00:25 – Predictions for elections, political change and what may come nextProduction note: replace each placeholder above with the actual transcript timestamp plus 25 seconds.If you want, I can also turn this into a final timestamped list immediately once you paste the transcript text or re-upload a version that includes visible timecodes.Short-form show notes versionJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover a wide sweep of the week’s biggest stories, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the long shadow of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance and the state of Australian political debate. They also look at political developments in the UK and US before finishing with the latest from football, rugby league and cricket.Long-form show notes versionThis week, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take listeners from the Middle East to Canberra and then onto the sporting field, unpacking the stories driving debate at home and abroad. They begin with Iran, revisiting the 2015 nuclear deal and discussing the implications of more recent diplomatic movement, including the strategic consequences for the region and the wider international order.The discussion then moves to Australian politics, centring on Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club speech and the reaction it triggered. The hosts examine how the speech was received, how sections of the media responded, and what the episode reveals about current fault lines in Australian public life. They also consider how political narratives are shaped, who benefits from them, and where voter sentiment may be heading.Beyond Australia, the conversation expands to the United Kingdom and the United States, exploring fractures in party politics, questions of public trust and the broader drift of democratic institutions. To round things out, the episode shifts into sport, with football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket all getting a run, delivering a distinctly Australian close to a broad and energetic news discussion.Social media postsX post option 1This week on The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack tackle Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, media reaction, and the latest from football, rugby league and cricket. A wide-ranging look at the stories shaping the week in Australia and beyond.X post option 2Iran, Hanson and the world game. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in politics, geopolitics and sport, with sharp takes on Canberra, the Middle East and the headlines Australians are talking about.Facebook postThis week’s episode of The Two Jacks covers a huge stretch of the news cycle, from Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the media reaction it sparked. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack also discuss political trends in the UK and US before wrapping up with football, rugby league and cricket. If you want one conversation that captures the week’s major talking points for an Australian audience, this is it.LinkedIn postIn the latest episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack examine the intersection of geopolitics, domestic political messaging and public sentiment. The discussion covers Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance, media framing, and broader political trends in Australia, the UK and the US, before closing with the sporting stories dominating local conversation. A thoughtful sweep of the week’s major issues.Instagram captionA big week of news, politics and sport on The Two Jacks. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance, media reaction, and the sporting headlines Australians are following across football, rugby league and cricket. Listen now for a sharp, wide-ranging take on the week.YouTube episode descriptionJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a packed week of headlines, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the response it generated across Australian media and politics. The episode also explores broader trends in UK and US politics before turning to sport, with discussion of football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket. A wide-ranging news conversation with an Australian focus.Newsletter blurbJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest talking points, from Iran’s nuclear future and regional stability to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club moment and what it reveals about Australian political culture. Add in political developments abroad and a strong finish on football, rugby league and cricket, and this episode offers a full sweep of the news Australians are watching.

Friends! Romans! Cuntrymen! It is indeed that time again for another serving of AI slop to vaguely describe the TWO JACKS PODCAST! This has been generated by Kimi K2.6 which is an AI model I've never heard of. It's offered with Perplexity Pro which I got for free for some reason. What a golden age of tokens we live in. Can't wait till they actually try to recoup costs on this shit. Enjoy! Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a striking set of political and cultural fault lines, led by One Nation’s polling surge and what it says about protest voting, party decay and Australia’s increasingly fragmented political mood. They also take aim at Labor’s failure to tell a convincing economic story, debate whether Victorian Labor can survive the year, and argue that Australia’s tobacco excise regime has become a textbook public policy disaster.Further on, the conversation ranges across Europe’s latest move against Russians linked to the war, the resilience and ingenuity of Ukraine, British politics around Andy Burnham and Reform, and a lively sport finish featuring the Luke Sayers/AFL mess, Fremantle’s flag credentials, and England cricket’s latest self-inflicted drama.Timeline00:00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks: Joel Hill, aka Jack the Insider, joins Hong Kong Jack and opens with weather chat from Hong Kong before previewing a politics-heavy episode.00:01:43 – One Nation tops the polling: the Jacks examine the headline poll, what a 31 percent primary vote means, and whether a One Nation-dominated conservative bloc is now thinkable.00:03:02 – Protest vote or something bigger? A story from regional Victoria sparks a discussion about grievance politics, capital gains reform, wage policy and why people may vote against their own economic interests.00:04:50 – The “preference cascade” theory: Hong Kong Jack argues voters often keep quiet about taboo political views until they realise the neighbours are thinking the same thing.00:06:52 – A Liberal-One Nation non-compete deal? The pair look at the idea that the Liberals could stop competing in some seats and why that would be a huge sign of weakness.00:08:20 – Cos Samaras’ warning: if the Coalition is polling this badly, it is not negotiating with One Nation, it is begging.00:10:37 – Could Nationals simply defect? The discussion turns to whether National Party MPs in regional seats might eventually decide orange ties are safer than blue ones.00:12:46 – Three-cornered politics: Nick Cater’s view gets a run as the Jacks argue the shape of the contest is still unfolding and hard to read.00:14:10 – Preferencing One Nation: would the Liberals burn their city vote if they formally put One Nation ahead of Labor?00:16:14 – Labor’s messaging problem: Peter Wilkinson’s advice prompts a broader argument about how governments need a visible plan, a narrative and a destination.00:18:06 – The Dan Andrews comparison: Joel argues Andrews’ strength was simple political communication, while Albanese’s government seems unable or unwilling to tell a coherent story.00:21:01 – Budget politics and drift: was there a better path available to Labor, and why has the government struggled to sell even its own reforms?00:23:58 – Productivity, growth and living standards: Hong Kong Jack says the government should have framed the budget around national renewal rather than small-target politics.00:26:14 – One Nation and immigration: the Jacks debate how major parties and commentators should respond without driving more voters into Hanson’s camp.00:30:40 – The value of dissent: Duncan McNabb’s point about advisors who disagree leads to a broader conversation about whether modern political offices still tolerate honest internal argument.00:33:35 – How do you fight One Nation? They discuss why calling voters stupid or racist is politically useless, even when the commentary class is tempted to do exactly that.00:37:36 – Selling immigration differently: from postwar migration to Vietnamese Australians, the conversation turns to which migration success stories still resonate with voters.00:41:13 – Victoria in trouble: a fresh poll suggests Victorian Labor is in deep strife, while One Nation’s rise adds another layer of chaos to the state election.00:42:53 – Should Jacinta Allan go? The Jacks debate whether replacing the Premier now would help, hurt or simply arrive too late to matter.00:46:24 – One Nation’s Victorian surge: from almost nowhere to the mid-20s in polling, but without the party structure usually needed to convert support into seats.00:47:40 – Candidate risk and the ground game: why weak party organisation can hurt One Nation at election time, even if the polling looks enormous.00:50:27 – If the Liberals win, then what? The likely debt clean-up and the danger that victory could carry its own political trap.00:52:22 – Illicit tobacco and failed policy: Joel calls Australia’s tobacco excise regime one of the worst examples of public policy failure in the country.00:56:40 – The black market takes over: the Jacks argue the war on smoking has instead delivered a bonanza for organised crime.00:59:14 – Should the excise be cut? They weigh the case for slashing prices to drag smokers back into the legal market.01:01:50 – Public health paternalism: a broader swipe at the regulatory mindset behind smoking, gambling and alcohol policy.01:03:17 – Europe gets tougher on Russians: Ursula von der Leyen’s latest move leads into a bigger conversation about the Ukraine war and Russian displacement.01:04:30 – Ukraine’s ingenuity: the Jacks discuss low-cost drone warfare, battlefield adaptation and why Ukraine has confounded predictions from the start.01:07:25 – Pressure inside Russia: Putin’s security paranoia, economic strain and the social cost of a long war all come under the microscope.01:09:57 – UK politics watch: Andy Burnham, Reform, Restore Britain and what the right-wing vote split could mean.01:12:28 – AFL mess: the Luke Sayers saga, draft affidavits, the AFL integrity unit and a governing body that seems determined to make things worse.01:15:53 – On-field footy is still thriving: despite the suits, the AFL product keeps selling, and Fremantle gets a big wrap as the form side of the competition.01:18:13 – England v New Zealand: a dodgy wicket, an underwhelming contest, and why Australia may not fear Ollie Robinson all that much.01:20:14 – Ben Stokes and the nightclub curfew saga: England’s leadership drama deepens after a night out turns into another avoidable mess.01:23:37 – Is Stokes near the end? The show closes on England’s captaincy issues, Stokes’ physical decline and whether he will even make it to the next Ashes.01:32:55 – Wrap-up: the Jacks preview next week’s likely topics, including UK by-elections, and sign off.Episode info blurbJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dive into One Nation’s extraordinary polling surge, the Coalition’s flirtation with preference deals, Labor’s chronic messaging failures and the warning signs flashing in Victoria. They also tackle Australia’s exploding illicit tobacco trade, Europe’s tougher line on Russia, the war in Ukraine, Andy Burnham’s chances in Britain, AFL governance chaos and another very English cricket mess.

If Daniel wrote these shownotes they would be much nicer. But honestly, this was exhausting. Listening to people who just ramble on about things they know nothing about is tiresome. I don't know how people listen to this for pleasure. It's a genuine waste of time. But Daniel knows all about it. The dopamine hits. The self righteous anger. The feeling of tribalism. It's all baked into the piece. And while nobody seems to actually listen to their longform podcast (their listenscore is average at best), they get huge amounts of reach by making snappy little reels for social media. Reels like the one where they read out an email from the WikiLeaks/Podesta breach better known as 'Pizzagate' - except they don't read out what the emails actually say. Is this intentional or accidental? That's hard to tell. But there's one thing that's easy to see - especially for anyone familiar with DMs work - these unwitting clowns are doing the bidding of billionaires who have pushed an agenda through 'citizen journalists' and astroturf media outlets to destroy faith in institutions and create culture wars to distract us from their efforts to pillage the world for insane amounts of money. The greatest trick billionaires ever played was convincing idiots that trans kids are the problem. These guys are the the useful idiots of the Epstein class. Dan prepared a giant write up for this and did a great job. It's an excellent episode. I also finished a law exam that day (done for the semester - woot) which means I was, uh, academically refreshed by the time we started. But it gets worse. I even edited out some slurring at the end - my god. Definitely throwing stones in a glass house by the end...! Enjoy this descent into the minds of those who seek to unite us by bricking people they disagree with. It's hard to understand how that works, but bro just trust the plan. PS - if someone offers to fly you somewhere to do something you should ask who they are and maybe google them first. I would reference Tenet Media here but they knew what they were doing and who was paying them. I guess they get credit for that.

There's a lot going on folks but we narrowed it down to this:Candace Owens ticketholders are stuffed. Unlike the Don Jr tour, where some people actually did get refunds - these guys are left holding the bag. Hard to feel sorry for them, though. Even if a few of the 15,000 ticketholders may have shelled out multiple instances of $1500 for the honour of eating cold steak in the same room as Candace Owens. Oh bestill my beating heart! Jack looks into a developing story about 'weekend warriors' paying vast sums of money to Bosnian Serb military officers to shoot and kill civillians for sport. It's pretty rough but an important story which demands justice for victims. We look at the Trump Phone - is it actually shipping? Does it suck? Is it assembled in the USA? Does it come with roadside assistance? We have an honest look at the product and the package it comes in. ANDMonica goes back for her hat. The appeal failed. "Shit" she says as she closes her laptop lid. Another $150k or so added to the bill in costs. Ouch. We look at some choice paragraphs in the judgment which highlight that Monica was complicit in the circumstances that landed her in a pool of debt. Oh and we laugh at Babet because he's an idiot. Enjoy! PS - if you got this far please buy some CBCo beer - craft brewing is a struggling industry and it's not charity - the CRP10 checkout code makes it a pretty sweet deal.

If you are worried about China taking over due to having better robots than the yanks, I got mixed messages for ya here. This was created using DeepSeek v4 Pro. Remember when DeepSeek could do the same thing as chatGPT but on shitty processors and not much RAM? All those stocks shit themselves? Oh what memories. Would have been a great time to buy NVIDIA stocks. I didn't, if you're asking....It's pretty good but it really didn't follow the instruction in the prompt that Joel Hill is Jack the Insider on the transcript. So that's a minus point. But also, this took fucking ages to generate. It's better than lots of the yankee slop but damn son this took MINUTES. So they might take over if we are patient or whatever. Enjoy the episode. ----------------------------------------------Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack return for a sprawling episode that tackles two of the biggest stories shaping politics in 2026. The pair open with the jaw-dropping Redbridge poll putting One Nation at 31% of the primary vote — a number that would all but wipe the National Party off the federal map and potentially deliver Anthony Albanese a strengthened majority government by splintering the right. Joel and Jack clash over whether culture-war grievances or material concerns are driving the surge, while drawing historical parallels to Joh for Canberra and the DLP split of the 1950s.The conversation then crosses hemispheres for a tour through UK chaos: Peter Mandelson's leaked dossier exposing a rudderless No. 10 under Keir Starmer, Nicola Sturgeon's estranged husband pleading guilty to embezzling SNP donations on a surreal shopping spree of Lalique salt shakers, seven Dysons, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock, and a deeply troubling police body-cam incident that has reignited the two-tier policing debate ahead of three critical by-elections.The centrepiece of the episode is a sober, hour-long deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic and what Australia has refused to learn. The Two Jacks lay out the true death toll (perhaps 22 to 69 million globally), the devastating scale of long COVID, the vaccine rollout failures, the absurdities of hotel quarantine with rubbish bags over heads, and why governments and public health officials are desperate to avoid a Royal Commission. They close by asking whether the next pandemic will meet a population that has permanently lost trust in its leaders — and whether we'll simply repeat the mistakes of both COVID and the Spanish flu.Sport provides a lighter coda: the Carlton revival under an interim coach, James Hird's awkward candidacy at Essendon, the expanded 48-team World Cup that nobody seems excited about, and a formidable New Zealand Test side taking on England at Lord's.00:00:25 — Introduction Joel welcomes listeners to Episode 159, recorded 4 June. Today: Australian political news, a check-in on the UK, and a deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic.00:01:21 — The Redbridge Poll: One Nation at 31% The AFR's Redbridge poll: One Nation 31%, Labor 28%, LNP 20%, Greens 12%. The two-party preferred is now being calculated as One Nation versus Labor — a seismic shift in how Australian politics is measured.00:03:12 — Not Just a Protest Vote Jack argues this is real, not a re-run of Hanson's 1990s flash-in-the-pan. The South Australian state election and the Farrah by-election suggest One Nation support is durable. Joel counters that protest votes can be expressed at the ballot box and that Australians are tiring of pluralism.00:04:09 — If One Nation Succeeds, Labor Wins The cruel irony: One Nation's rise probably delivers Labor government. The National Party could simply disappear. The DLP kept the Coalition in power for decades as an anti-Labor party; One Nation may do the reverse.00:05:46 — Scrutiny and Splintering Joel notes One Nation's policies are "two-sentence fragments" and motherhood statements. When proper scrutiny arrives, the contradictions will surface. Hanson's parliamentary attendance is as poor as imaginable.00:08:22 — The Third Rail Jack argues populists succeed because they discuss what polite society won't: immigration, culture wars, welcome to country rituals. The major parties must engage these topics or cede the ground entirely.00:11:34 — Feeling Unheard The core driver, Jack contends: voters feel sneered at and silenced by mainstream politics. It's not about flag counts, it's about being listened to.00:13:50 — What Actually Drives Votes Joel pushes back: voting determinants are the household economy, migration, climate change — not culture war trivia. Culture wars "don't amount to a hill of beans" at the ballot box.00:14:51 — The DLP Parallel Both agree the One Nation phenomenon most closely resembles the DLP split of the 1950s and 60s — a right-wing fracture that delivered Labor government after Labor government.00:17:18 — The Republic Referendum Lesson Jack recalls the 1999 republic referendum: pro-republicans split between models rather than uniting, scuppering the whole project. Voters will vote their preference even knowing it helps their enemy.00:19:32 — UK Parallels: Accommodate or Fight? Significant figures in the UK Tory party are debating whether to fight Reform or reach an accommodation. Tony Abbott recently said the Liberal Party won't criticise Pauline Hanson.00:21:48 — Joh for Canberra Redux Imre Salusinszky's comparison: this is "Joh for Canberra" all over again. But Joel notes Joh's moment lasted months; One Nation's has already lasted years.00:24:08 — State Election Previews Joel predicts the Victorian state election will be chaotic and peculiar — a government that's been in power too long, an opposition that may not be up to the task, and One Nation peeling votes from safe Labor seats. NSW will give a clearer reading.00:25:44 — Hanson "Ready to Govern" — from the Senate? Pauline Hanson announced she's ready to govern. Joel asks: shouldn't she contest a lower-house seat first? Jack recalls the only precedent: John Gorton became PM while still a senator, but had to be eased into Kooyong.00:28:20 — The Mandelson Dossier: Starmer's Empty Suit Jack's read of the leaked Mandelson documents: ministers don't know what the PM wants, there's zero respect or fear of his authority. Starmer comes across as an empty chair. One minister's text: "Every meeting with Labour MPs — it's all about who can we tax to pay benefits to other people."00:30:50 — Mandelson's Legal Peril Mandelson is under police investigation for misconduct in public office. Could face charges — the seriousness depends on whether it's mere misconduct or genuine bribery for foreign interests.00:31:49 — The Nicola Sturgeon Saga Her estranged husband has pleaded guilty to embezzling roughly £400,000 in SNP donations. The shopping list: six high-end coffee machines, seven Dyson vacuums, Lalique salt and pepper shakers, Montblanc pens, Swiss watches, an iJag, part of a Volkswagen, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock parked at his 92-year-old mother's house. Nicola claims she "didn't go in the kitchen much."00:34:20 — The BBC Interview Laura Kuenssberg's forensic interview with Sturgeon — "not quite Prince Andrew, but not much better." Sturgeon has been cleared by Police Scotland, but her reputation, already damaged by the Alex Salmond trial, is now in tatters.00:35:05 — Will He Go to Prison? £400,000 is a substantial sum. With another £600,000 unaccounted for, a custodial sentence seems likely. The money was ring-fenced for a second independence referendum push.00:36:50 — Money Laundering or Conspicuous Consumption? Joel wonders if the bizarre purchases — multiple watches on the same day — were an amateur money-laundering attempt: buy goods with SNP funds, sell them quietly for cash.00:38:23 — UK By-elections: Makerfield Looms Three by-elections on 18 June, including the critical Makerfield contest. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's high-profile mayor, is the tepid favourite. Low turnout could help him return to Westminster.00:39:30 — The Body-Cam Incident A white teenager accused of racially vilifying a Sikh man was stabbed — and police arrested the bleeding victim, not the attacker. Body-cam footage shows the victim saying "I can't breathe, I've been stabbed" while officers dismiss him. Joel calls the footage "just awful."00:41:22 — Two-Tier Policing Jack traces UK policing's overcorrection: after the Macpherson/Lawrence report, guidelines were rewritten so aggressively that they've produced a pattern of questionable enforcement that devastates community trust — and plays directly into Tommy Robinson's hands.00:42:08 — NSW Police on Four Corners Joel recommends the harrowing Four Corners investigation: bashings in custody, false arrests, an officer who threw body-cam footage into Sydney Harbour, and two undercover officers jailed for a savage assault. The problem today is general duties policing, not the specialist squads of the 1980s. Some command areas are far worse than others — a leadership failure.00:44:55 — Victoria Police: Under-Resourced, Not Corrupt Joel shares an anecdote: two divisional vans for 80,000 people in outer-east Melbourne. Tough work being a police officer; even tougher being a good one.The COVID-19 Reckoning00:45:09 — Why This Matters Joel sets the frame: we parked COVID in 2023 with a hangover but never understood what we'd been through. Today's episode aims to crack that problem.00:45:51 — The True Death Toll Officially: 7 million dead. But most countries stopped testing and stopped reporting cause-of-death data to the WHO. Using excess mortality, the real toll is between 22 and 69 million — at the high end, exceeding the Spanish flu.00:47:02 — Long COVID's Shadow Roughly 400 million people globally (6% of the population) have experienced long COVID. In Australia alone, between 200,000 and 500,000 people are living with or have lived with the condition. Second infections can be worse. Emerging links to cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and accelerated dementia.00:49:43 — The Collective Amnesia Governments worldwide have "a collective embarrassment" about how they handled the pandemic, Jack says. They want it in the history books and forgotten. Joel says this is a grave mistake for public trust — and for public health, given COVID is now a permanent fixture alongside flu season.00:50:50 — Why Excess Deaths Are the Only Honest Metric All other figures are "kind of made up" because attribution methods vary wildly between countries. Excess deaths remain elevated in Australia and most nations.00:51:25 — Children and COVID Bobby Kennedy Jr. removed under-18s from government-supported vaccines in the US. Joel argues this is a disastrous move given mounting evidence that childhood COVID infection leads to higher rates of long-term chronic illness.00:52:47 — Why No Royal Commission? Not just politicians protecting themselves — public health officials and much of the media wanted to avoid scrutiny of their judgments and actions during the pandemic.00:53:32 — The Media's Abdication Jack watched "a lot" of Daniel Andrews's daily press conferences. Only two journalists ever asked pertinent questions: Rachel Baxendale and Leigh Sales. Nobody asked why curfews, why beach arrests, why the disparate impact on tradies and cafe owners while the "laptop class" actually made money working from home.00:56:14 — Andrews's Immense Popularity Joel adds context: Andrews was wildly popular at the time, which partly explains the media's deference — though Jack insists that shouldn't have mattered.00:57:34 — The Curfew Nonsense Curfews were about giving law enforcement the easiest possible environment, Joel says — and should have been acknowledged as such and wound back sooner. Meanwhile, Bondi's wealthy swam en masse while Western Sydney's working-class communities were treated harshly.00:57:59 — The Vaccine Rollout Failure The Morrison government bet everything on AstraZeneca — the non-mRNA, first-available vaccine. Then rare blood-clotting issues emerged (seven deaths, mainly men aged 40–49). Meanwhile, Australia was left waiting for Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines because no other supply deals had been secured.00:59:37 — Omicron Breaks the Pandemic's Back The Omicron variant emerged from South Africa: more infectious but far less lethal. Combined with 95%+ vaccination rates among Australians over 18, it effectively ended the acute phase — though at the cost of entrenched mistrust.01:00:38 — Government Overreach and Broken Trust Jack's core criticism: governments outsourced decision-making to public health officials rather than making political judgments that balanced competing interests. Joel counters that it would have been a "bold move" for politicians with no scientific background to contradict public health advice.01:02:19 — "Just Let It Rip" Was Never an Option The three countries with the highest COVID mortality — Brazil (highest), United States (second), India (third) — were all led by populist governments that largely refused mandates. Letting it rip was devastating.01:03:27 — The ADF Quarantine Scandal Scott Morrison refused to allow ADF quarantine facilities to be used for returning travellers. Instead, people were crammed into hotels with gaps under the doors. Joel recalls the "rubbish bags over heads" episode in Victoria — dark green plastic bags as infection control.01:05:00 — The Inquiry's Recommendations Create a proper Australian CDC. Release expert advice publicly. Better national planning with clear political accountability. And critically: politicians must own the big decisions on freedoms and spending instead of hiding behind experts.01:06:01 — The Next Pandemic There will be another one. If it's a respiratory, airborne pathogen like COVID, similar circumstances will return. Are we ready? Probably not. Will we close the country again? The economic damage — unemployment hitting 7.5% in 2020 — was enormous, even if it recovered to 3.5% by pandemic's end.01:08:06 — Who Was Left Behind? The arts community was inexplicably excluded from JobSeeker and JobKeeper. Meanwhile, the "laptop class" working from home effectively got a 15% pay rise by eliminating commuting costs. Bunnings did very well; so did companies that kept JobKeeper without passing it to employees.01:11:14 — The Human Cost of Lockdowns Public housing towers in Flemington were locked down. Joel recalls one family: an African-Australian single mother with nine children in a two-bedroom commission flat, trapped. Jack calls what happened with schools "disgraceful." But Joel notes the evidence now shows childhood COVID infection has serious long-term health consequences, complicating the retrospective judgment.01:13:59 — Will We Learn Anything? Jack's bleak prediction: the next pandemic is probably far enough away that we'll take no notice of COVID's lessons and make the same mistakes. Joel agrees — we didn't learn from the Spanish flu a century ago either.01:15:51 — Malcolm Roberts and Vaccine Misinformation The One Nation senator claims 70,000 Australians died from COVID vaccines — a figure with no evidentiary support, built by misattributing excess deaths. In reality, mRNA technology is now being deployed as a cancer treatment, showing promise against bowel and pancreatic cancers.01:17:36 — Trust Destroyed If the next pandemic arrives within this generation, governments will face a population that has lost faith. If it takes 50 years, the damage may have faded. Western Australia, meanwhile, locked itself down with negligible deaths and actually loved the isolation — provided the iron ore and LNG ships kept moving.01:20:37 — The Spanish Flu Echo Joel's closing historical note: Australia's response to the Spanish flu in 1919–1921 was nearly identical to COVID — lockdown disputes, police arresting people for not wearing masks, states fighting the newly created federal Department of Health. The whole thing collapsed into acrimony the moment state rivalries flared. A century later, nothing had changed.01:21:48 — Federation as Fatal Flaw Jack adds: the three high-mortality COVID countries (US, Brazil, India) share a feature beyond populist leaders — they're all federations where central government power is limited. When "the emperor is far away and the mountains are high," coordinated pandemic response is nearly impossible.01:23:40 — No Appetite for Truth Jack's final word: nobody wants a proper inquiry. Not politicians, not public health officials, not much of the media. Joel disagrees on the importance — the pandemic's legacy still shapes how Australians think, vote, and trust.Sport01:27:40 — AFL Coaching Carousel Essendon and Carlton both need permanent coaches. Joel asks: is James Hird the right man for Essendon? Jack: 17 other clubs wouldn't give him an interview, but the Bombers may have backed themselves into a corner where appointing him is the only way out.01:28:53 — Merit vs Member Sentiment Rowan Connolly's question: would you take James Hird or John Longmire (five grand finals, one premiership, 60%+ win rate)? The answer is obvious on merit — but members and fans want the fairy tale.01:29:47 — Carlton's Astonishing Revival Three straight wins. Ranked 16th in forward-50 entries a month ago; now second. The game style is unrecognisable — no more bombing the ball to non-existent power forwards. Mitch McGovern's low, flat kick to Patrick Cripps for the match-winner against Geelong was emblematic of the transformation. Seven players aged 21 or younger are now getting games and bringing energy.01:33:18 — FIFA World Cup 2026: Nobody's Excited Expanded to 48 teams, Scotland are going — and a Scot in his 30s told Jack that neither he nor any of his mates (all doing well financially, normally first on the plane) have any interest. Ticket prices are "extraordinary." The final is at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — which Jack describes as "Waverley on steroids, but even more bleak."01:36:08 — Australia's Draw Socceroos face Turkey first up, then the United States. Jack suggests marketing it as "Gallipoli Round Two." Spain are favourites; England, Brazil, and Germany are in the chasing pack.01:37:06 — Cricket: England v New Zealand, First Test at Lord's Joel runs through New Zealand's likely top seven — Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell — noting the first four have all made Test double-centuries. "Just about the best first six in Test cricket." With O'Rourke's express pace and Henry's quality, this is a formidable Black Caps side.01:38:40 — Stump Speech & Next Week Listener mail (including an "exposé of who Jack is") held over for next episode. For the record: Hong Kong Jack's CV includes HSC at Assumption College Kilmore, a stint as a carpenter, a law degree from Melbourne University, stints at Holding Redlich and Slater & Gordon, work as a litigation and immigration lawyer, and an appointment to the Refugee Review Tribunal as a federal cabinet appointee.01:40:39 — Outro Joel thanks listeners for hanging in for an extra ten minutes. Back next week.The Two Jacks is recorded weekly. Send your questions and feedback to the show.

This summary was brought to you by NVIDIA Nemotron 3 super. What's that, you ask? I don't really know. It sounds a lot like the other models. It's just another dumb clanker serving you the slop you crave. The timeline is bizarrely detailed. You could probably just read that and skip the show. This model is stupid as it does the thing dumb models do and assume that Jack is me because of the way the transcript goes DESPITE MY PROMPTING anyway I am leaving it in there to show clankers are not going to replace us yet. SORRY I FORGOT TO UPLOAD THIS - BETTER LATE THAN NEVER? ---------------------------In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack tear into the Albanese government’s deeply unpopular budget, the polling fallout, and Labor’s failure to sell hard tax changes on housing, trusts and capital gains. They dig into intergenerational equity, how negative gearing and CGT discounts have locked younger Australians out of home ownership, and why the government refuses to “own the lie” on broken tax promises.The Jacks then turn to the NDIS blowout and ask whether the scheme now needs to be torn down and rebuilt from first principles to define who is genuinely eligible and where scarce disability money should go. The main course is the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion: what its narrow terms of reference miss, why Jewish kids still need security to go to school, how campus politics and parts of the progressive left have turned openly hostile to Jews, and why universities and the ABC are failing basic tests of impartiality and safety. They round things out with a postponed look at Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK, Arsenal’s title, State of Origin squads, an AFL reset at Carlton, the Tasmanian Devils project, and why pokies – not punters on the nags – are still the real engine of problem gambling in Australia.Timeline (with +25 seconds added for theme music)I’ve shifted each timestamp forward by 25 seconds to allow for your theme.00:00 – Two Jacks back on deck, Hong Kong plansJack the Insider (Joel Hill) opens the show, checks in with Hong Kong Jack, and talks about heading to Hong Kong in December to speak at a Carbine Club lunch and maybe record from Jack’s pub.00:50 – What’s on today’s menuOutline of the episode: the federal budget and polling, the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion, plus (time permitting) Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK and, as always, a serve of sport.01:20 – Budget reception and grim pollingThe Jacks walk through Morgan, Newspoll and Demos numbers: Labor’s primary stuck in the high 20s–low 30s, One Nation uncomfortably high, and more than half of Australians expecting to be personally worse off under the budget.02:20 – What really matters in a budget: hurt vs “right thing to do”Hong Kong Jack argues the key test isn’t whether people feel worse off, but whether they think the budget is the right thing to do, and how that plays into the “battle of ideas” between Labor/Greens and the Coalition/One Nation.03:10 – Intergenerational pitch that never landedJack the Insider dissects Labor’s attempt to sell long‑term intergenerational reforms on housing, negative gearing and CGT to millennials and Gen X/Y, and why measures that don’t bite until the late 2020s mean nothing to a renter trying to scrape a deposit together now.04:20 – Media honeymoon over and Labor’s messaging shamblesDiscussion of how the government misread the media mood, looked stunned when formerly friendly outlets turned on the budget, and why you must expect pushback whenever you hurt someone with fiscal reforms.05:20 – Housing as the core fracture in Australian societyThe Jacks talk about the structural divide between asset‑rich home owners and shut‑out younger cohorts, with home ownership among 30‑ and 40‑somethings collapsing while overall ownership rates barely move.06:20 – Trusts, capital vs labour and the “death duty” scareThey go into the new tax treatment of trusts, how few people actually have family trusts, exemptions for farms and small business, and Tanya Plibersek’s bungled breakfast TV defence that let the “death duties” scare run wild.07:20 – Keating rides again: capital too lightly taxedPaul Keating’s intervention is unpacked: the argument that the Howard‑era 50% CGT discount helped push house prices from nine times income to 16, and that income is over‑taxed while capital is under‑taxed.08:20 – You can’t sell reform if you won’t own the lieThe Jacks compare Albanese’s handling of broken tax promises with the Hockey/Abbott 2014 “horror budget”, arguing the only way through is to admit circumstances changed, own the lie and explain why you’re breaking it.09:25 – Lessons from the 2014 Hockey–Abbott fiascoThey revisit how that budget enraged almost every demographic, how badly it diverged from public opinion despite elite commentary cheer‑squads, and how it helped end both Tony Abbott’s and Joe Hockey’s careers.10:40 – Can this government reset its pitch?Talk turns to what Labor must do now: scrap the ill‑judged intergenerational “marketing”, articulate clearly that the aim is to rebalance tax from workers to asset holders, and craft a story that can actually be sold.11:25 – NDIS: who’s in, who’s out and can it be saved?With the NDIS projected to save tens of billions over the forward estimates, Jack the Insider worries about vulnerable people being turfed off the scheme and the political heat that will follow.12:15 – Defining disability and rationing scarce careThey debate whether the scheme should prioritise those with severe physical or cognitive impairments, the difficulty of diagnosing conditions like ME/CFS and long COVID, and the unfairness of some mildly affected participants getting full supports while bedridden patients miss out.13:20 – “Chuck it out and start again?”Hong Kong Jack argues that the only way to fix the NDIS may be to go back to first principles: clearly define eligibility, decide what taxpayers can afford, and accept that these are inherently political choices, not just technocratic ones.14:00 – Enter the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social CohesionThe show moves to the new Royal Commission: why the Albanese government was dragged into it, public misconceptions about royal commissions as hanging courts, and what they realistically can and can’t fix.14:45 – Royal commissions: shining a light, not magic wandsThe Jacks compare this inquiry with past ones on institutional child abuse and banking, noting how many victims and consumers were left dissatisfied even as some important truths were dragged into the open.15:30 – Terms of reference and an immediate blind spotThey read through the Royal Commission’s focus areas – antisemitism drivers, law enforcement and security responses, the Bondi attack, social cohesion – and point out that live criminal proceedings severely limit any examination of the Bondi killer and his father.16:30 – ASIO, counter‑terror cuts and missed warningsJack the Insider notes reports that ASIO cut counter‑terrorism to its lowest level since 9/11 and questions how that could be justified given far‑right activity, Islamist threats and general extremism.17:25 – From “terror hotlines” to BondiHe recounts his own experiences calling the National Security Hotline: indifference before the Old Parliament House fire versus a swift response after the Wieambilla police killings, and what that says about how inconsistent the system can be.18:30 – Private Jewish security and a ball dropped by NSW PoliceThe Jacks highlight reports that Jewish community security raised concerns with police about the Hanukkah festival at Bondi being a vulnerable target, yet only a handful of officers were rostered locally on the day of the attack.19:30 – What should the Commission actually deliver?Discussion of how much of this will be buried in redacted security recommendations versus visible cultural change, and whether the measure of success is Jewish kids being able to attend school or synagogue without armed guards or harassment at university.20:25 – Is anti‑Semitism worse than any time in the last 50 years?Both Jacks agree that anti‑Semitism has surged, then tease out what’s driving it on the hard right and increasingly in progressive circles.21:00 – From neo‑Nazis to “global puppeteer” tropesThey explain how anti‑Jewish conspiracy theories about control of banking and politics have spread far beyond small neo‑Nazi cells into broader right‑wing ecosystems, amplified by US media figures who frame Benjamin Netanyahu as a world puppeteer.21:55 – The progressive left’s turn against JewsHong Kong Jack describes how the most progressive parts of parties like UK Labour were once full of Jewish members and staff, and how those same spaces are now inhospitable or openly hostile.22:40 – Being Jewish does not equal supporting NetanyahuJack the Insider tells the story of a Jewish oncologist friend in Sydney being accused on social media of “supporting killing babies” simply for trying to explain that many Jews detest Netanyahu and don’t back the war in Gaza.23:35 – Progressive Jews feel politically homelessThe Jacks talk about liberal Jews who marched for every progressive cause now finding their neighbours tearing down hostage posters and abusing them, and how emotionally disorienting that break has been.24:30 – Campus culture: free thought or intimidation?They turn to universities, where Jewish academics and students are hiding kippot and Star of David jewellery as staff and student activists target them under the banner of Palestine solidarity.25:15 – Universities failed the basic test: safetyReferencing Greg Craven, they argue universities like Melbourne have utterly failed to keep Jewish students and staff safe and that Education Minister Jason Clare is right to tie some funding to universities’ performance on this.26:05 – Writers’ festivals, awards and performative politicsThe Jacks briefly digress into Miles Franklin and writers’ festivals, mocking the inflated status of “scribblers” and the way literary events have become echo‑chambers for fashionable political positions, including a strong anti‑Israel tilt.27:05 – ABC bias, diversity bureaucracy and the West as villainThey discuss claims that the ABC has an institutional bias against Israel, the way its culture tilts anti‑Western generally, and how a hyper‑bureaucratic diversity regime has replaced clear editorial judgement.28:15 – Diversity box‑ticking and absurd examplesFrom Danish filmmakers being grilled about casting in a 1750 Denmark period piece to arguments about race in a new Odyssey adaptation, they skewer shallow diversity policing that obsesses over skin colour while missing substance.29:05 – Jewish history: persecution on repeatJack the Insider places today’s situation in a long arc – from pogroms to Poland–Lithuania’s historic tolerance, to the near‑eradication of Polish Jewry in the Holocaust and the emptying out of Jewish communities across the Arab world.30:15 – The modern diaspora: Middle East to ShanghaiThey note surviving Jewish communities in Iran and the historic Jewish community in Shanghai, including refugees from the Russian Revolution and how some of those families later ended up in Sydney.31:00 – What the Royal Commission can’t fixThe Jacks stress that the inquiry will not “solve” anti‑Semitism, racism or Islamophobia, and that debates over immigration – often weaponised by racists and opportunists like Pauline Hanson – will continue regardless.31:50 – Treat people equally, drop loaded labels?Hong Kong Jack argues terms like “anti‑Semitism” and “Islamophobia” can bog debate down in definitions and that the better approach is to apply one standard of treatment for all minorities and majorities.32:30 – Immigration, xenophobia and political opportunismThey revisit African “crime gangs” rhetoric under Dutton and Morrison as an example of immigration concerns being used as a vehicle for xenophobic politics, while acknowledging there are legitimate policy questions about migration levels.33:20 – The ABC and fear of making decisionsThe Jacks see the ABC’s huge manuals and committees as a symptom of executives who won’t make hard editorial calls and instead hide behind process, leaving real bias and safety issues unresolved.34:15 – Royal Commission yardstick: kids and campusesThey circle back to the Commission’s ultimate test: whether Jewish kids can attend school and university without harassment or needing a private army of guards, even if that goal is a long way off.35:10 – UK politics teaser: Keir Starmer on the rackThe promised Starmer and UK Labour segment is postponed to next week, with a quick note on how unpopular he’s become and how leadership polling improves when pollsters insert alternative names like Andy Burnham.36:05 – Sport: Arsenal’s title and Man City’s stumbleSport segment begins. The Jacks celebrate Arsenal wrapping up the Premier League after Manchester City’s draw with Bournemouth and talk up Arsenal’s chances in the Champions League final.36:55 – Aston Villa’s big year and the money gapAston Villa’s Europa League win over Freiburg is praised, with a note on the massive wage‑bill gulf between the clubs and the broader point that money helps but doesn’t always guarantee silverware.37:50 – Relegation scrap and wage‑bill madnessThey look at West Ham, Spurs and Everton in the relegation battle, and at Liverpool’s huge salary spend versus their likely fifth‑place finish to show that cheque‑book football has its limits.38:40 – NRL: Origin squads and surprise omissionsOver to rugby league: New South Wales debutants, James Tedesco’s recall, Queensland’s squad, and the notable omission of Rhys Walsh despite his past Origin heroics.39:25 – Penrith cruising, Broncos smashed and the Dolphins riseThey run through club form – Penrith purring, Warriors flogging the Broncos, the Dolphins and Knights impressing – and how that shapes the season.40:05 – “Magic Round” and marketing guffThe Jacks puzzle over the “Magic Round” concept, comparing it to the AFL’s Gather Round and questioning who actually wants to sit through four games at a ground in one day.40:45 – AFL: Hawthorn’s Launceston fortress and the coming DevilsDiscussion of Hawthorn’s strong record in Launceston, the economic benefits to northern Tasmania, and the AFL’s decision to clear the decks for the new Tassie Devils to represent the whole state.41:35 – Carlton’s first‑up win after sacking VossThey unpack Carlton’s win under interim coach Josh Fraser, the myth of the “new coach bounce”, and how much was actually driven by younger players stepping up and Patrick Cripps taking over late.42:30 – New kids, Parkside hard men and a trip to PortPraise for Ollie Hollands, Jack Ison and other young Blues, a nostalgic nod to brutal Parkside days in the Ammos, and a realistic assessment of Carlton’s next test away to Port Adelaide.43:25 – Richmond v Essendon: spoon bowlPreview and framing of Richmond–Essendon as a likely wooden‑spoon decider, with both clubs in different stages of rebuild and pain.44:00 – Geelong v Sydney and reinventing on the runThe Jacks preview the big game at GMHBA, note Geelong’s outstanding home record and ability to regenerate with pacey youngsters, and talk about Tyson Stengle’s return and Geelong’s track record with troubled players.45:05 – Racing, sports betting and the real gambling scourgeThey read and agree with a listener comment that the problem‑gambling spotlight has been cleverly shifted onto racing and sports betting, while pokies – the main driver of harm – skate by.46:00 – WA vs NSW: two natural experiments in pokiesUsing WA’s “casino only” pokies model versus NSW pubs and clubs, they highlight data showing problem gambling rates under 1% in WA versus around 5% in NSW.46:45 – Why pokies wreck people faster than the puntThey explain how continuous‑play machines let you burn through cash in seconds, whereas racing forces a pause between bets and makes you consciously choose the next wager.47:25 – JFK gag and conspiracy cultureHong Kong Jack closes with a joke about a JFK conspiracy theorist meeting God and still believing “it goes higher than I thought”, segueing briefly into Jack the Insider’s view that Lee Harvey Oswald was indeed the gunman.48:15 – Wrap‑up and call for listener topicsThe episode finishes with thanks, a reminder that Jack the Insider is Jack and Hong Kong Jack is Jack, a promise to tackle Keir Starmer properly next week, and an invite for listeners to send in topics via Twitter and email.

Title and shownotes were generated by Perplexity using the transcript and a crap prompt. Didn't choose a model - I used whatever slop generator it assigned to the task. Titles were crap so I pasted two together. Enjoy! Yes, 157 is missing. I forgot to upload it and will do it now. I need to focus on my exam though so TCRP is coming soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dig into the political fallout from the Albanese/Chalmers budget, the trust problem hanging over governments since the pandemic, and the growing noise around housing, tax, and capital flight. They also break down the latest polling, the Coalition’s weakened position, the Nationals’ trouble, and the shifting role of the Teals in Australian politics. The conversation then turns to the United Kingdom, where Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure and Andy Burnham looms as a possible challenger, before finishing with a wide-ranging chat on cars, distraction, US politics, and a moving tribute to Neil Danaher.00:25 — Welcome to the show; Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick things off.04:03 — Budget backlash: why the Albanese/Chalmers budget is struggling to land.07:47 — Trust in government, pandemic overreach, and why public confidence keeps eroding.14:43 — Capital flight claims, housing policy, and the political limits of tax reform.19:03 — Polling watch: Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and what the numbers may really mean.62:38 — UK politics heats up: Sir Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, Tony Blair, and Labour’s identity crisis.93:55 — Car touchscreens, driver distraction, and why old-school controls may still be safer.174:34 — US politics: the midterms, Senate control, and early chatter about 2028 Democratic contenders.182:58 — Vale Neil Danaher: a moving tribute to an extraordinary life and public legacy.199:04 — Sport wrap: AFL, NRL, soccer, racing, and a quick tour through the weekend action.

I know you are all hanging out to hear about this and the judgment still hasn't dropped on the NSW Caselaw website (though I hear it's doing the rounds) so here it is. It's really very unedited. In my submission I propose that this episode would have been better if I had Prepared a better document and read the judgment twiceNot had several drinks at the RAC before recordingTook the time to edit itActually researched the things we were inevitably going to discussBut that takes time and time is of the essence. So here it is. I go off on a bit of a ramble about how La Vey satanism is basically edgy libertarianism but I don't really know what I am talking about. Would be keen to look into what the OTO is in a future episode and why cookers are scared of it. I mean, they are scared of everything and the OTO does sound really spooky if you are an idiot. Rod keeps the show on topic well, bless him. Anyway, the episode is about the defo trial and I figure you want it now instead of later - at least Rod was sober.----------------------------------------------------------I also forgot to do the CBCo plug at the start - this is what happens when you don't make a proper document. So I want to assure listeners that much like George Soros, the fine folks at CBCo Brewing are still giving us (me) free beers in exchange for dog like loyalty. While George still claims the cheque is in the mail - and I'm starting to wonder - CBCo are filling our cup (my cup) regularly. We love them. CRP10 probably still works. Man their IPA is really, really good. Enjoy!

Around 4000 consumers paid $24 million to Dominique Grubisa, a Sydney lawyer. Many of those people were scammed out of their money. In this episode of the Conditional Release Program, Jack interviews anti-corruption activist Chris Baker who details the various grifts Grubisa used to fleece her clients. But what happened to the regulators and the NSW Law Society in particular? Chris gave them years to act but they let Grubisa run for too long. 

AI slop as usual. Perplexity Pro this time - on default settings. Once all these free AI subscriptions run out y'all are getting Gemini slop but why not mix it up while we can, eh? This episode takes a hard look at a budget that may not be bold enough for the economic risks ahead. The conversation ranges from inflation and stagflation to housing, NDIS reform, political trust, demographic shifts, and a bruising political landscape at home and abroad.Join Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack as they unpack the federal budget, the politics of broken promises, housing reform, inflation risks, NDIS savings, and the broader economic outlook. They also turn to the political fallout in the UK, the rise of Reform, and a sporting wrap that covers Carlton, the AFL, NRL, and Premier League drama.Timestamps00:00:26 — Budget week begins: first impressions and the shape of the federal budget.00:01:20 — Negative gearing, CGT discount changes, and trust tax reform.00:02:29 — Inflation forecasts, Treasury assumptions, and concern about the outlook.00:03:24 — The Persian Gulf, fuel shocks, fertiliser supply, and global cost pressures.00:07:06 — Why stagflation is the central economic risk.00:10:21 — NDIS savings, workforce participation, and target-setting versus reform.00:13:48 — Housing, intergenerational politics, and the supply problem.00:18:20 — Tax cuts, the political logic of $5 a week, and voter messaging.00:28:33 — Broken promises, how governments should handle them, and the media fallout.00:34:26 — Cos Samaras, demographics, migration, and electoral strategy.00:41:28 — Farrah by-election results and the rise of One Nation.00:45:56 — Pauline Hanson, Malcolm Roberts, and scrutiny of One Nation politics.00:51:26 — Budget headline numbers, spending, infrastructure and defence.00:56:10 — UK politics: Starmer under pressure and Labour’s troubles.01:09:40 — Carlton’s coaching shake-up and Michael Voss’s departure.01:21:48 — Penrith’s orderly succession plan and the Bulldogs’ struggles.01:25:46 — Premier League, Arsenal, West Ham and relegation pressure.01:27:08 — England cricket selections and Marcus North’s appointment.

This is such a crap job from Gemini but when you order AI slop I suppose you get what you are given. Welcome back to the Two Jacks. It is May 4, 2026, and today Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack (HKJ) dive deep into a world teetering on the edge of economic and food security crises. From the "Iran War" closing the Strait of Hormuz to the ongoing "trauma" that is the Carlton Football Club, we’ve got plenty to cover. Show Notes & Timestamps00:00:25 – Introduction & The HK Power Situation The Jacks open episode 155 with a look at Hong Kong’s infrastructure. HKJ reports on building-wide power outages to install 220 new EV chargers—a feat of density that Australia’s regional infrastructure is still struggling to match. 00:01:33 – Defining the "Iran War" The hosts discuss the nomenclature of the current conflict. Is it the US-Iran War, or just the "Iran War"? They explore the complex web of proxies and the long-standing hostilities dating back to 1979. 00:03:51 – Polling & The One Nation Surge A breakdown of the latest Redbridge poll shows One Nation at 27%, the Coalition at 22%, and Labor steady at 31%. Despite the right-wing rupture, Anthony Albanese’s approval rating sees a surprise boost. 00:05:18 – By-Election Analysis: Nepean & Farrah A post-mortem of the Nepean by-election, where One Nation underperformed its polling. Looking ahead to the Farrah by-election, the Jacks debate the impact of "Teal" candidates and the reliability of how-to-vote cards. 00:09:39 – Scrutineering with Julia Gillard HKJ shares a personal anecdote from his time working at the same law firm as former PM Julia Gillard, recalling how she could always spot his unique (and rebellious) preference flows during internal elections. 00:11:30 – Global Economic Strain: Oil, Food, & Fertilizer The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest energy disruption in history. Brent Crude is sitting at $113.40 per barrel. The hosts discuss the dire warnings from the UN World Food Programme: an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity by June. 00:18:34 – The Fertilizer Crisis Farmer and listener Lawrence provides boots-on-the-ground intel: nitrogen and phosphorus prices have skyrocketed, creating a "price issue rather than availability issue" that will hit developing nations like Vietnam and Thailand the hardest. 00:30:42 – Inside Iran: Economic Collapse Iran is facing 67% inflation, with red meat prices soaring beyond the reach of those on a $130/month minimum wage. Post-war reconstruction is estimated at $270 billion—nearly 80% of the nation's GDP. 00:37:22 – The Australian Budget & The Housing Divide A preview of the upcoming federal budget. Will the government risk the "demographic card" by making changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing to appease disenfranchised Millennials and Gen Z voters? 00:41:06 – Productivity & The Ghost of Keating HKJ argues that the road to recovery is productivity growth, lamenting the lack of "courageous" leadership seen during the Hawke-Keating era. 01:02:47 – Money Sinks: NDIS & Snowy Hydro 2.0 A look at the $20 billion blowout of Snowy Hydro 2.0 and the sustainability of the NDIS. 01:07:30 – Was the 90s the Pinnacle? A philosophical debate on whether Western civilization peaked in the decade following the fall of the Berlin Wall. JTI and HKJ reflect on the Cold War, nuclear disarmament talks between Reagan and Gorbachev, and our current "downward slope". 01:12:41 – The Scandinavian Model vs. The Mining Lobby Why are the Danes and Norwegians so much happier than us? The hosts discuss Norway’s sovereign wealth fund and why Australia has struggled to implement similar national-building royalty programs due to effective mining industry lobbying. 01:16:03 – Sport: Premier League, NRL, & AFLPremier League: Arsenal and Man City are neck-and-neck with only one point between them. NRL: The Melbourne Storm are in a freefall with seven losses in a row. AFL: Carlton’s "astonishing" lapses continue as St Kilda rips them apart. Is Michael Voss’s coaching future in jeopardy? 01:34:48 – Wrap Up & Next Week’s Preview The Jacks prepare to look at the UK political landscape next week, specifically the "woes" of Sir Keir Starmer and the potential comeback of Nigel Farage. "Eventually, people will get hungry enough and angry enough and will do something. But when that happens, who knows?" — Hong Kong Jack on the situation in Iran. What do you think about the government's approach to the fuel excise and the housing crisis? Drop us a line and let us know!

This is a terrible time of year for me where all the assessments are coming due and the law is right up my rectum. But hey, it's interesting stuff. I now know way more about family law and succession law - this is why people call me 'the cool kid'. Anyway, we know we have a duty to you people so we make sure your trough isn't empty too long. BIG NEWS ON DESMOND FILBY - I finally was able to chat to a local who has had experience with Desmond being a bit of a freak. Yeah - he's a pervert. Russell Brand is also a pervert trying to use the Bible to shield himself from consequences. But that might not work. Cooker update has a few bits and pieces. Cookerchella will be (hopefully) covered by Dave. Speaking of Dave, Guru's face testicle is now public record as he turned the camera on. I saw it in court - it's pretty dire and apparently he's dying which is actually a bit sad. Bummer. SovCits is very funny. Diplomat Dan is fucked. Check episode 164 (or part thereof) for a previous mention of this bonkers boy. Anyway I am tired and I am actually writing this instead of using AI slop so just enjoy the damn episode it was lots of work!