PODCAST · news
The Dismal Science
by The Australian Institute of Company Directors
Join the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
Episodes
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A New Podcast From the AICD
AICD is proud to announce the launch of a brand new podcast offering - Director Download. Director Download is a weekly podcast series that keeps directors and senior leaders ahead of evolving governance obligations. Each episode features conversations with policy experts and leading directors to...
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220 - The RBA's Confident-but-also-Uncertain rate cut
When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the...
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219 - Markets, Tariffs, and the RBA Outlook
In this week's episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump's unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week's RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week.…
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218 - What should the RBA do?
The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World...
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Special - Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil
Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.) For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief...
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Dismal Science Live at AGS: US Markets, CHIPS Act, Geopolitical Shifts, and Australian Economic Concerns
In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments. They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip...
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217 - GDP Relief and a Fracturing Global Order
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked. Turning their attention to the global stage, they...
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216 - Eight reasons a soft landing is uncertain
This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could...
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215 - 🍾 Rate Cut Victory Lap! 🍾 AI's Sputnik Moment & the US' Smoot-Hawley Moment.
We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts. Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI...
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Special - Tech, AI, the New World Order, and the Future of Growth
We're taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future. Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets. We contemplate...
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Special - 2024 Wrap Up: A Year of Living Conservatively Ft. Su-Lin Ong
This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia's economic conditions and the RBA's 2024 performance. They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for…
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214 - February Rate Cut Back On The Table?
The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table. Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Get your…
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213 - GDP Growth Stumbles, Per Capita Recession Deepens, Will the RBA Hold Firm?
This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure. Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in…
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212 - Is Germany Kaput? Lessons for Australia in a Deglobalising World
This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe's economic powerhouse - Germany. We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing. We...
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211 - Rate Cut Prediction on Life Support? Labour Market Holds Strong & COP29 Gets Political
This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut. Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be?...
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US Election Special: The Return of Tariff Man
Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result. We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates,...
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210 - Wage Growth Slows, Consumer Sentiment Lifts...but for How Long?
This week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys, and the AICD's Director Sentiment Index. The Wage Price Index showed annual growth slowing to 3.5%, a welcome development for the RBA in its fight...
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209 - US Election Volatility! Plus the RBA Holds, But For How Long?
The big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it means for Australia. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month. We examine...
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208 - Inflation Cools, But Services Stay Hot. Will Rate Cuts Come Sooner?
This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures. The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation...
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207 - IMF says "Mission Accomplished"? Bumper jobs numbers, and revisiting Mark's prediction...
Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers. In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that...
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206 - Oil price swings, China stimulus fallout, RBA minutes, and consumer confidence.
Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Israel-Iran conflict and speculation about Chinese stimulus measures. We then unpack the latest RBA minutes, analysing the central bank's current...
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205 - Housing is cooling, back to back surpluses, we're still unproductive, and the complexities of oil pricing.
Much to discuss on the agenda today. We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals. Retail sales showed strength - but the RBA and other analysts disagree on why. Were they impacted by the weather, stage 3 tax cuts, or an early father's...
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204 - Inflation trends maybe good? Interest rates stuck & China's sweeping monetary moves.
We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigilance is necessary. Our discussion then turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision to maintain current interest rates. The focal point...
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203 - Labour market news, a pacy 50 bps Fed rate cut, and how Middle East unrest affects us down here.
In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world. We discuss the significance of the still tight Australian labour market and its implications for monetary policy, dissect why the US Federal Reserve decided on a rather large 50 basis...
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202 - Central bank independence in a changing world; from the RBA to the CBRT
Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank independence means, its historical development, and the evidence for its effectiveness. Mark analyses key moments in the formation of modern…
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201 - Mark's Return: A brief global market meltdown, the RBA's "don't call it forward guidance" guidance, and our sluggish GDP numbers.
We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad's 80th birthday in Saltburn. We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine…
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200 - A long goodbye
It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics. A big thank you to all of our...
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199 - A marriage of convenience
Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump. Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting millenials and some debt free…
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198 - Tour de Canberra
Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on: • RBA Minutes • Core logic house and rent price data • Retail sales numbers • Job ads And the number of the week this week asks: if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the...
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197 - I mean it's one burrito Mark, what could it cost? $111?
Monthly inflation numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates. What does the upcoming French election tell us about Britain, bonds and post-covid fiscal policy? And does the much hyped Guzman Y Gomez IPO and subsequent share price pop suggest that burritos are recession proof?
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196 - Succulent Chinese deal
Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continue to, as the Chinese saying goes, pull strongly against the raging tide? Plus, hawkish sounds from the RBA as the path grows ever narrower and the...
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195 - Diverging paths
An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a small open economy be doing more to bring back global trade? Plus, continuing resilience in the jobs market, continuing weakness in overall growth,...
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194 - The shipping news
Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama canal. But could it get even worse? Plus, inflation picks up again in Australia and retail sales remain stagnant.
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193 - Risky business (with guest Roger Dennis)
New Zealand economist Roger Dennis advises boards globally on long-term thinking and foresight. We spoke to him on how directors should think about the seemingly endless proliferation of risks, what he calls the paradox of preparedness, and whether Kiwis, living on the edge of the world, have a...
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192 - The juggler (Budget 24/25)
The treasurer had a juggling act to perform in this budget: fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief, inflation reduction and productivity growth were all balls to keep in the air. How did he do? Plus, the job market weakens and wage growth falls.
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191 - Chart with decreasing yen emoji
The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we preview the budget, higher for longer interest rates in the US and a weak retail sales number.
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190 - A Cook's tour
A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migration.
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189 - Not out of the woods
Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move might be up again rather than down? Plus, a slight softening in the jobs market and just how much does negative gearing impact property prices?
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188 - Industrial chic
Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero transition, and mitigating geostrategic risk are touted as key benefits. But does it stack up economically? Plus, new stricter merger rules and more...
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187 - Lost in the supermarket
A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while also lowering prices for consumers? Would increasing competition lead to more innovation? Or has the supermarket experience improved despite the lack...
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186 - Statistical error
Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by problems recently. Can we continue to trust these key economic indicators? Plus, dovish noises from the Reserve Bank on interest rates, as inflation...
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185 - Productivity puzzle (Live at the AGS)
Live at last week's Australian Governance Summit, we asked what could be done about Australia's languishing productivity: can policy make a difference? Will AI save us? Could it be as simple as building more houses? Plus, a first rate cut might be nearing and an extraordinary plunge in the…
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184 - Per capita pain
Australia's GDP per capital continues to go backwards as growth slows to snail's pace. Plus, we look ahead to next week's RBA meeting, Powell hints interest rate cuts might be imminent in the US and more Swiftonomics.
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183 - Narrowing path
Inflation is falling but so is growth, is the path to a soft landing for Australia narrowing still? Plus, a deal for what it's worth at the WTO and the UK economy as Willy Wonka experience.
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182 - Trade daze
The World Trade Organisation met last week. Not that you'd know it. Is the dream of global trade done? Plus, with real wages finally growing, could the RBA really raise rates again?
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181 - Bumpy road
An uptick in US inflation shows the path back down might not be smooth, plus back home the labour market cools, hyperinflation in Argentina, and is Bitcoin back?
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180 - Speak now
After the new look RBA meeting, the governor now holds a media conference where she addressed the future path of interest rates, as well as Taylor Swift's effect on inflation. Plus, China acts to backstop its sagging equity markets.
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179 - This one's optimistic
Inflation is moderating in Australia and the IMF says the global economy is on "the final descent toward a soft landing". 2024 might be looking up. Plus, what to expect from next week's new look RBA meeting.
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178 - Stage 3 and me
We look at the government's changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. How will this affect the distribution and will they be inflationary? Plus, business confidence plunges and the IMF warns against cutting rates any time soon.
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Join the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
HOSTED BY
The Australian Institute of Company Directors
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does The Dismal Science have?
The Dismal Science currently has 225 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The Dismal Science about?
Join the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
How often does The Dismal Science release new episodes?
The Dismal Science publishes regularly with 225 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
Where can I listen to The Dismal Science?
You can listen to The Dismal Science on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts The Dismal Science?
The Dismal Science is created and hosted by The Australian Institute of Company Directors.
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