The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to drive some degree of change in refereeing standards or even the rules of the game, why we think that an assertive response is necessary, and we walk through several possibilities for how the sport and the leagues might respond.Read Caley's new newsletter here: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-meat-wall-era-in-the-premierSupport the show

There is too much to podcast on and we are giving our subscribers a few bonus podcasts. Talking top four in Germany and Italy, recapping the Bayern - PSG second leg, and of course, all the Real Madrid drama.Support the show

Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the numbers, why Kobbie Mainoo is the key player in this tactical shift, some notable differences in how the team approaches game state, and nonetheless how there is clearly just a ton of variance going on here. Support the show

That was great. We discuss what made the game so exciting, why it was not a game with enormous expected goals totals, and what that tells us about the tactical approach and quality of play. Plus a Vincent Kompany apology form. Support the show

Caley wrote a newsletter about the origins of the set piece revolution, whether it's all Mikel Arteta's fault, how teams actually score off throw-ins, and why set pieces didn't take over the game earlier. This pod talks through the newsletter and some of our theories of how the set piece side of the game is interacting with larger open play tactical trends. Newsletter link: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-origins-of-the-set-piece-revolutionAlso newsletter link: https://www.patreon.com/posts/origins-of-set-154510725?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_linkSupport the show

We are joined by Sam Greenwood, high-stakes poker player and the writer and publisher of the Punt of the Day newsletter (to which Mike Goodman also contributes), to talk about poker and some questions we've been thinking about in sports and analytics and, well, publishing a podcast and recording a newsletter, about the world of optimizing and making money by clicking buttons on the computer. And because Sam is not only our Gambling Correspondent but also our Canadian Soccer Correspondent, we also turn to discussing the Canadian Men's National Team and the upcoming World Cup. Check out Punt of the Day: https://www.puntoftheday.com/2026/Support the show

We take up a challenge from the discord to say something about even the least interesting teams. This podcast series will take us through the international break and begins with Fulham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Everton, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Leeds. Support the show

We are joined by Leif Weatherby, author of Language Machines: Cultural AI and the End of Remainder Humanism, to talk about artificial intelligence: what these new technologies do, but more than that how the fact of their existence can teach us more about how language works. And then we continue down a variety of paths talking sports analytics, optimization, and other topics.https://www.upress.umn.edu/9781517919320/language-machines/Support the show

Why the "Premier League disaster" narrative doesn't really make sense, plus some capsule summaries of the eight matches and why there was not that much to learn from the second legs. City-Real and Chelsea-PSG matches were over too early, Liverpool and Arsenal held serve at home, Bayern continued walking, why would anyone have expected more than this from Tottenham, and Barcelona-Newcastle was a fascinating watch with more to discuss but not necessarily representative of any larger dynamics. Support the show

There is so much football to discuss that this podcast could not contain it all and part two will be a subscriber episode. Here we get to the acknowledgement of Tottenham and a much more in-depth discussion of both PSG - Chelsea and Real Madrid - Man City, two matches that were much more similar than the scores and the ensuing narratives might suggest.Support the show

We discuss the Round of 16 and why it seems like there are fewer and fewer new matchups in the Champions League knockouts and what might have to be done to address this.And then, it's time for the return of Bible History Corner and, neither a review nor a summary of Jason Staples new book Paul and the Restoration of Israel but a preparation for it with extended background first on the history of Pauline Studies, and second on the history of Ancient Judaism, the Kingdoms of Israel, the Babylonian and Assyrian conquests, and tying all of this back around to Paul so we can talk about the book. Support the show

There have been many dramatic results recently and the title race in the Premier League is indeed on between Arsenal and Manchester City. Nonetheless, the Double Pivot take remains the boring analytics answer that sometimes results happen without new or particularly interesting causes.Support the show

With the Analytics Dead Zone fully underway in league football, we step back, take a question from the mailbag, and play "Squad Player or Star Player?" with James Garner, Joao Pedro and Gabriel Martinelli. Support the show

That's right. For the Winter Olympics we have a whole podcast dedicated to biathlon, joined by Jordan and RJ of the Penalty Loop Podcast to teach us all about how to watch biathlon like an expert, understanding the different events as well as the kinds of data and analysis used in biathlon, the players and teams to watch at the Olympics, and we did not skimp on the biathlon drama either. Check out the Penalty Loop Podcast: http://penaltyloop.com/penalty-loop-podcast/And Biathlon Analytics: https://biathlonanalytics.com/Support the show

The Double Pivot has introduced a term into the football vernacular and we talk through the set pieces story, Caley's study, and Jonathan Northcroft's column in the Times. And then we talk transfers including Marc Guehi, Antoine Semenyo and Ademola Lookman, which leads naturally into a discussion of private equity in football. The Northcroft column: https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/premier-league-goalkeepers-set-pieces-ft66m8hn5Set pieces study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolutionSupport the show

We had a goofy final day of the Champions League and a few thoughts on Benfica and Real Madrid and the joy of whiparound soccer.And then we get into Caley's new study on The Set Piece Revolution and the evidence that the game-changing insights here are mostly just chucking it into the mixer and crowding the keeper. We disagree(!) about some likely responses and we discuss what is likely to come next as set piece thought continues to spread.Read the full study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolutionSupport the show

With seven weeks of the Champions League League Phase complete, it is properly all to play for in the chase for qualification to the knockouts and especially in the chase for top eight and a bye into the round of 16. We go through the table and the impossibility of precisely gaming out all the scenarios.Also! The Deloitte Money League data is out and it shows both the current financial dominance of the Premier League and the low rate of growth in inflation-adjusted football revenue since 2019. Support the show

The attempt to reform Real Madrid concludes, and it is reported that it probably was never really an attempt to reform Real Madrid in the first place. We discuss the distinct highs and lows of Xabi's tenure in Madrid, why we are (relatively!) down on the club from here, what we learned about Alonso as a manager, and what may be next for him. Support the show

Ruben Amorim actively got himself sacked by Manchester United. We talk about how we ended up here, why nothing about the process looks well-handled, what's next for United and why United's management structure makes it nearly impossible to predict what's next. On Ratcliffe and Ineos with Ben Walsh: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/16787734-united-ratcliffe-ineos-and-cycling-with-ben-walshSupport the show

The long midtable in the Premier League is exceptionally competitive and just plain good. We talk about the underlying economic and game-structural reasons this has happened, and then we get into (most of) the 6th to 14th place clubs—Manchester United, Spurs, Palace, Brighton, Brentford, Newcastle and more—and their chances at making a run for the Champions League. Support the show

What's going on with Antoine Semenyo's transfer market and what sort of analytics are we using to evaluate him? Has Xabi Alonso saved his job at Real Madrid? And can the boys squeeze three topics into a single podcast? Listen to find out!Support the show

Set pieces are making up an unprecedently large percentage of Premier League goal-scoring. At the same time, open play goal scoring is down significantly. We work through the data on tactical changes in the Premier League and European football since 2010 and the shockingly quick shift in goal-scoring this season. Is it something that the powers that be will have to intervene to fix in the rules of the game? As always, the Double Pivot answer is "maybe, but we would like a larger sample size."Set piece goal scoring graph: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3ma5anvdgr22eSupport the show

Mohamed Salah decided to make some news this week. We walk through how and why his unload-the-clip statement on the club and the manager happened and what comes next for Liverpool, for the front office and for the manager and players, who still need to figure out a set of tactics that get the most out of their stars, with or without Salah. Support the show

There has been a lawsuit filed against Tony Bloom and his sports gambling syndicate alleging, well, the lawsuit is actually just asking for money. But it is also about how sports gambling syndicates work and specifically how the one owned and run by the owner of Brighton works, and we wanted to talk about that and about Premier League gambling policy. Support the show

A hot start on points masked underlying problems, but a blowout loss to Arsenal and what should have been a blowout loss to Chelsea have brought focus back to what seems to be wrong at Tottenham. We break it down. Support the show

It's a huge, wild, and complex story. Referees suspended, players implicated, the third and fourth divisions suspended, criminal investigations into Super Lig clubs and referees. We break down what's going on in Turkey and we ask, is this just the first open reporting of risks to sporting competition that are present across professional football and global sports?Wikipedia and links for the Turkish football story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_football_betting_scandalAnkaraspor - Nazillispor: https://en.haberler.com/it-had-been-talked-about-for-days-here-is-the-2157354/Cleveland Guardians scandal: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/emmanuel-clase-arrested-pleads-not-guilty/Sports Betting and Players in US Sports: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6807760/2025/11/14/sports-betting-players-nfl-nba-mlb-nhl/Support the show

City won 3-0. The non-penalty xG in the match was dead even. What does that mean, what are the statistics telling us about this match and about Man City and Liverpool?Support the show

We kick off the new Double Pivot Ballon d'Or tracker podcast series with a discussion of why we're going to be doing this, tracking both the players who we think will deserve the award and who is more or less likely to win in, and how we think about those problems. And of course we check in on the obvious leaders right now -- Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane -- as well as some players we're watching to see if they can get into consideration. Support the show

We talk to Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and author of the book Forward Progress, about the American sport that we all agree has the most uncanny resemblance to European and global soccer, college football. We talk NILs and conferences and the transfer portal, and we talk the super league and the socio model and the Bundesliga. What both college football and European soccer eventually become are two of the most fascinating questions in sports, and understanding one can help you think about the other, too. We even talk a little bit about analytics.Forward Progress: https://www.triumphbooks.com/forward-progress-products-9781637278703.phpSupport the show

Caley has built a new projection and team rating model so we talk through what it tells us about the Premier League right now. Arsenal's incredible defense, Newcastle's confusing defense, Liverpool's problem defense, Palace's attack, Spurs not looking entirely terrible, Sunderland looking strong, and more. Support the show

We are joined by two of the Double Pivot's official correspondents -- Salacious Gossip Correspondent Joel Wertheimer and Financial Shenanigans Correspondent Skanda Amarnath -- for the second annual Premier League worst contracts draft. Support the show

It's analytics podcasting time. We are table sorting and talking Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. Support the show

We continue to monitor teams and players that are underperforming our expectations, or, perhaps, overperforming and then suddenly dramatically underperforming our expectations in the case of Real Madrid. What went wrong in the Madrid Derby and what does it tell us about Xabi's new-look Madrid? And after Liverpool's underwhelming early season statistics finally translated into dropped points against Crystal Palace, we consider why Florian Wirtz is not producing at his previous level. Support the show

Ignore the intro, it's a lie.We take up the big Arsenal - Man City match from Sunday and what it tells us about the two clubs and try to intervene in the high-spirited but somewhat misguided discourse that's arisen from the match. Support the show

Villa and Liverpool both have underlying numbers are running well behind expectations after four games, but also their slow starts are reflected very differently in the actual table. We get into what's gone wrong so far on tactical and personnel levels, how much we expect things to bounce back, and how much the real points they've taken affect this analysis.Support the show

Nuno Espirito Santo has been sacked by one of the Premier League's more chaotic owners, we talk about that drama and the added factor that Forest hired Ange Postecoglou to replace him, a manager practically his absolute tactical opposite.Plus we talked USMNT a bit. Support the show

Most of the headline business on deadline way was as expected, but we found both some unexpected transfers lower down the table to discuss. And we consider what it means that the Premier League, and especially the top of the Premier League, spent so much money this summer. Support the show

Liverpool struggled badly against Newcastle while City lost to Spurs, and both matches captured the current tactical meta in different ways. We walk through the history of where the extreme control tactics of contemporary football came from and how clubs are now responding to control with different versions of chaos, pressing, athleticism and directness. Looking back on Pep, Jose, Klopp, Tuchel and how their ideas shaped the game and what might come next. Support the show

Arsenal got the three points, but their close-fought 1-0 victory over Manchester United felt strange to watch and was a major statistical outlier in a number of ways. We are joined by CBS Sports' James Benge to discuss what he saw from Arsenal in their opening match and what it might mean for the season.Follow James online: https://bsky.app/profile/jamesbenge.bsky.socialAnd read his article on the match: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/arsenal-were-faster-than-ever-in-win-at-manchester-united-but-is-new-style-here-to-stay-or-circumstantial/Support the show

It's that time again! We go through all 20 Premier League teams, draft our favorites, and talk about why we picked them. Part II of course available at http://patreon.com/doublepivotSupport the show

We talk about strategies for staying in the Premier League as a promoted side, how much harder it's gotten, what approaches are being employed by Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley, and why we think this season one of them breaks the streak. Support the show

Who do you got?Support the show

We are joined by Sophie Lawson to discuss the Women's Euros, which were heading into their semifinals as we were recording. How Spain have established themselves as the best in Europe, why Germany have made the semis but still disappointed so far, how England have shown fight but not yet the quality of ball that they need, and how Italy are just Italy-ing super hard. Follow Sophie on the various social media sites @lawsonsv including: https://bsky.app/profile/lawsonsv.bsky.socialSupport the show

Talking about all the agreeable soccer analytics you can listen to if you join at https://www.patreon.com/c/doublepivotAnd if you do, here's how to join the Discordhttps://support.patreon.com/hc/en-us/articles/212052266-Getting-Discord-accessSupport the show

The deal is still held up in contractual, semi-legal limbo, but we talk about Gibbs-White and analyzing players based on per-90 and per-touch metrics, and whether this is a risk worth taking for Tottenham. Support the show

Summer means transfer talk but also maybe a teensy bit of international football. We discuss Malik Tillman to Bayer Leverkusen as well as Malik Tillman within the context of the USMNT. And we talk about Nico Williams to Barcelona, why it hasn't gone through yet, and what the plan is for him at Barca. Support the show

Chelsea has not yet completed most of the many transactions they're reported to be working on, but certainly it looks like another summer for churn. And our question is, why.Support the show

With Crystal Palace in danger of missing out on Europe due to their ownership situation, and Chelsea being, you know, the way that they are, we felt it was time to talk to an actual expert about what private equity is and what is new about private equity ownership in sports. So we asked George Pearkes, all-around finance knower on social media and professionally Global Macro Strategist for Bespoke Investment Group, to talk to us about it.George is also the co-host of the Normal Men podcast: https://peark.es/podcast/Support the show

Tottenham are hiring Brentford's manager to replace Ange Postecoglou. Frank has been adaptable in his career with a few consistent tendencies, and we've got some takes. Support the show

Manchester City appear to be moving in the June window, with transfers for Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait Nouri advancing, rumors around Tijjani Reijnders and Tino Livramento hanging around, and we look at a very strange season and what all of this might mean. Support the show