PODCAST · business
The InvestSense Podcast
by InvestSense
InvestSense discuss the latest in portfolio management, economics and investments while joined by leading voices from around the world. Learn more about InvestSense: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-our-solutions Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here: <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investsense.com.au%2Finvestsense-insights%3Futm_source%3DPodcast%26utm_medium%3DWeekly&data=05%7C02%7Canesci%40investsense.com.au%7C03ca857e25f94431fa9e08dc25e748e2%7Ce4d3024b004f4df5a3351193d2d9c8a7%7C0%7C0%7C638426922527720361%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2Bc5zkCyHfMtOoNAe2ffTm9tOKo5o
Episodes
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Quiet at home, loud everywhere else
Australia had a thin data week and a noisy global one. Westpac's consumer confidence index fell from 84.4 to 80.4, with mortgages costing more after the Reserve Bank's recent tightening, a reminder of where the shift in interest rate environment is biting the most. The dollar tried and failed to...
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A quarter of movement but not much progress
The RBA hiked to 4.60%, August CPI came in softer than expected, and US payrolls missed badly. Meanwhile high-yield spreads wobbled for the first time this cycle and Google issued a record-breaking bond into the Australian market. We talk through a quarter that moved a great deal and arrived...
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Unemployment enters the RBA's band as yields hit twenty-year highs
The S&P rose while the thirty-year hit 5.49%. The RBA is set to hike Tuesday, unemployment is now in the range the Governor wanted, and oil is back above US$104 after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire offer. This week we discuss why this is a grind rather than a spike Get access to the graphs:...
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Economist Andrew Hunt on the end of the post-pandemic credit boom
We asked Andrew Hunt last week whether, after years of "yes, but liquidity", we were finally coming to the end of something. His answer was an unambiguous "Yes, I think we are." The mechanism is the US current account. Hunt's long-standing rule is that once the American deficit approaches 1% of...
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What a defensive diversifier has to look like now, with Christian Baylis
Every defensive allocation starts from a price, and for most of the past decade that starting point was generous: bond yields had room to fall and credit spreads had room to compress. Today the position is reversed. Government yields are grinding higher rather than mean-reverting, and credit...
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Three central banks, five days, one direction
Three major central banks raised rates last week: the Fed to 4%, the ECB earlier in the week, and the Bank of Japan to 1.25% on Friday. In almost every case, markets are priced for at least one more increase this year. The Bank of Japan matters more than most assume: one explanation for the...
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Hawks at home, oil abroad and a harder question about playing defence in these markets
Three central banks are hiking at the same time, oil touched $110, and a trillion dollars of AI capital expenditure is landing in bond markets alongside already large government deficits. All that said equity moves were comparatively contained, and the damage was in rates, not shares which is...
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Just noisy bond markets, or is the start of something?
There is a respectable case that this is noise, if painful noise. Much of the move in long yields has tracked oil almost tick for tick, and one analysis circulating this week put the rolling correlation between the two at its highest in four decades. On that reading, the bond market is a hostage…
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Will America's creditors keep buying? With Economist Andrew Hunt
When we spoke with Andrew Hunt in late July, his advice was to stay at the party. Getting defensive, he said, would be like standing on a railway track in front of an oncoming locomotive: you might know the track is broken behind you, but the train won't notice you. The impetus was extraordinary…
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Australian inflation refuses to budge & Warsh talks tough(ish) at Jackson Hole
The domestic focus last week was Wednesday's July CPI, and it was not the one the Reserve Bank wanted. Headline inflation eased to 3.5% over the year on base effects, despite a roughly 6% monthly rise in fuel prices, but the trimmed mean held at about 3.6%, and rose 0.5% in the month, well above...
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Australia's August Reporting season: the unloved are rallying with Tim Binsted
Australia's August reporting season is drawing to a close, and the more interesting story is not the earnings themselves but what they triggered. CSL guided to flat revenue and rose 20%. Private equity bids arrived for Cleanaway, Equity Trustees, Perpetual, Steadfast and Reliance Worldwide....
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Australia’s reporting season: rotation beneath a flat tape
The ASX 300 fell 0.6% last week, but the index number disguised a sharp change in leadership Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/australian-reporting-season-rotation-beneath-a-flat-tape Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment...
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A hawkish RBA hold and a rally that is finally broadening
The RBA dominated the local week, holding the cash rate as universally expected but with a deliberate hawkish tilt. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/us-earnings-growth-hits-50-4-or-32-once-the-paper-gains-come-out Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly...
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What Australian small caps add to diversified portfolios in the here and now with Ben Griffiths
Australian small caps are usually treated as a satellite, added when markets feel buoyant and trimmed at the first sign of trouble. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries is not a miniature ASX 100 though, and it is not the banks and iron ore that drive it. We speak with Ben Griffiths of Eley Griffiths…
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The strongest earnings season since 2021
With 88% of the S&P 500 now reported, second-quarter blended earnings growth stands at 50.4% — the strongest since Q2 2021 — on revenue growth of 15.0%, itself the best since late 2021. The headline flatters, though. Alphabet's result included a US$98 billion unrealised gain on equity securities...
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Inflation breaks the RBA's way while markets punish big tech spending
The last week of July was another round trip for markets with the NASDAQ and chip heavy emerging markets indices off 4–5% earlier in the week before making most of it back in the final sessions. Over the month the pain was concentrated exactly where the year's gains had been: Korean stocks…
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Putting Ourselves in the Way of Good Luck
The job of multi-asset investors is to build portfolios where a concentrated, catalyst-driven strategy has the space and the time horizon, five to seven years, to do what it does, without being rolled out at the worst possible moment. This week, JR spoke to James Hawkins of L1 Capital about what…
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Beyond the chip trade in emerging markets with Rahul Desai of Aikya
Rising GDP does not reliably translate into returns in emerging markets. The index is dominated by state-owned enterprises, political conglomerates and whichever theme is in vogue. Today that’s semiconductors, at more than 40% of the index. We speak to Rahul Desai of Aikya, who focuses on...
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Who funds the AI boom when borrowing costs are rising?
Australian employment and US earnings led the news last week. The story is a familiar one wearing new clothes: an energy shock testing disinflation progress just as markets question the AI capex boom's cash generation. Get access to the graphs:...
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Why Markets = Faith x Liquidity with Economist Andrew Hunt
Andrew Hunt often says Markets = Faith x Liquidity. While faith may have peaked, liquidity clearly hasn't yet. His message is to stay invested for now, while avoiding the frothiest and most volatile areas of the market which will move quickest and most if the dynamics of that equation deteriorate...
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Volatility Returns But Not Everywhere
As the US reporting season gets underway, volatility has been creeping back into markets, and in a distinctly uneven way.In summary, the Australian economy is looking a little resilient, and a flat year behind us means a more stable valuation starting point, not such a bad thing. The volatility…
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Looking through the noise with markets priced for much good news
Most markets finished the week lower, though the Australian market held its ground. The pattern is telling: a dip through the middle of the week and a partial recovery into Friday. The oil price traced almost the exact mirror image, spiking to around US$80 a barrel before easing back to US$76.…
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AI, oil and a flat local market: FY25/26 in review
Markets moved through a defining week as three storylines, a fragile Middle East de-escalation, a softer US labour market and a renewed wobble in the AI trade, reset expectations for the second half of 2026. It also closes a financial year that, in hindsight, was almost entirely about momentum…
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What Kevin Warsh's Fed could mean for Australian rates with Christian Baylis
We discuss the RBA’s reaction function and a potential Fed regime change under new Chair Kevin Warsh with Christian Baylis at Fortlake Asset Management. We like talking to Christian every few months as he manages a go anywhere absolute return strategy and so is relatively unbiased but also a...
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Oil, peace and the price of patience
Markets spent the week leaning into the better news from the Gulf, however Iran–Israel ceasefire is not straightforward. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/oil-peace-and-the-price-of-patience Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our...
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Markets exhale, then catch their breath
A week that began with hope ended with a reminder that geopolitics rarely moves in a straight line. The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, formally opening a 60-day ceasefire and lifting the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slumped almost...
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Back to January? Why the Deal Changes the Headline, Not the pipes with Economist Andrew Hunt
The US/ Iran deal appears to change everything and risk assets responded accordingly. But Andrew Hunt warns against the temptation to declare the episode over and return to the pre-shock world of narrow, liquidity-fuelled equity gains. Oil-shock inflation is slow to appear and slow to leave. The...
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SpaceX's trillion-dollar debut, a preliminary deal signed and a hawkish RBA hold
Markets endured a week of whiplash. Brent crude pushed toward US$98 a barrel as Israel and Iran exchanged fire and a US Apache helicopter was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. Then on Friday a single Truth Social post, President Trump cancelling planned strikes and claiming a deal…
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The week that re-set expectations
Three months into the Iran-Israel conflict, markets have stopped treating it as breaking news and started treating it as the new wallpaper. Brent oil chopped between US$94 and US$98 a barrel last week as the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbled, Hezbollah rejected the framework, and an Iranian...
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NASDAQ up 40%, Korea up 100% and a software rebound - the year so far in review
With the financial year now in its closing weeks, this update doubles as both a wrap of the past week and a stocktake of how we have arrived here. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/nasdaq-up-40-korea-up-100-and-a-software-rebound---the-year-so-far-in-review Join…
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Hormuz, Hikes and the First Australian Crack
Markets ended the week clinging to hope. President Trump posted on Sunday that a deal with Iran would be "announced shortly", but by Monday morning negotiators were being told not to rush. Learn more: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/hormuz-hikes-and-the-first-australian-crack Join the...
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Finding value in the AI wreckage with Pzena Investment Management
Markets in 2026 are a study in extremes. The AI-driven euphoria has lifted a narrow cohort of winners to unimagined highs, while a long tail of former tech market darlings have halved in value. For value-disciplined investors, this divergence is the opportunity set. Our conversation with Caroline...
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US 30-year yields top 5% as inflation broadens beyond fuel
Markets finished the week in a now-familiar pattern: US equities punched to fresh record highs on AI momentum, oil ground higher on Gulf supply concerns, and inflation re-accelerated across the developed world. Get access to the graphs:...
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Australia’s budget night, the Macquarie Conference and where real returns come from with Tim Binsted
A lot has happened in a short window. Tuesday night's budget delivered the most significant tax reform package in a generation, and we have spent the last 48 hours working through what it means for adviser practice. The headline measures, replacing the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation…
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Last night’s budget, Hormuz and a hotter US CPI print
For Australian advisers the local story is the Federal Budget. Treasurer Chalmers delivered the long-flagged property tax reform: negative gearing now restricted to investment in new builds, and the 50% capital-gains discount replaced with indexation plus a minimum 30% tax rate (also waived for…
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April's record rally meets Sunday's missile strike as the RBA hikes to 4.35%
April was an extraordinary month for risk assets. The Nasdaq surged 16.3%, the Nikkei 16.6%, and the S&P 500 10.8% — both US indices closing at fresh all-time highs on Friday. The DAX added 7.1%, the FTSE MIB 8.9%, and even the ASX managed 3.0%, although it lagged as the RBA's hawkish posture...
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Liquidity, Faith and a Coming Reckoning? Andrew Hunt's Macro Outlook
Global equity markets have defied gravity since the Iran conflict erupted and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics thinks he knows why. In this week's video, Hunt argues that an estimated $300 to $400 billion per month in stealth liquidity injections is keeping risk appetite alive while the real economy...
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Oil at US$108, US earnings surge and Europe cracks
The week that was supposed to deliver clarity on the Gulf crisis instead delivered its starkest divergence yet between US and European assets. With Brent crude surging 13% to US$108 — its highest since the conflict began — and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the transatlantic split...
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The Defence Dilemma: Why Hiding in Bonds Isn't What It Used to Be
The traditional defensive playbook of shifting into government bonds and credit is under serious strain. With interest rate volatility effectively doubling over March and credit spreads offering limited cushion, the usual safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. Christian Baylis of Fortlake...
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In TACO we trust: Equity markets rally for a third straight week
For a third consecutive week, equity markets rallied in the face of a conflict that, on the ground, has barely improved. The S&P 500 rose 4.5% to a fresh all-time high, recouping the entirety of its post-war losses, while the Nasdaq surged on the back of strong early earnings and renewed AI...
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The ceasefire sparked the strongest rally in weeks but it didn't last
The past week was again dominated by the Iran–US conflict, with markets riding a hope-and-disappointment cycle that began with a ceasefire announcement on 7 April and ended with the weekend's talks in Islamabad collapsing into stalemate. By Sunday, President Trump had declared a US naval...
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Iran Brinkmanship Dominates as Markets Ride a Rollercoaster Week
Global equity markets ended last week higher, but the gains mask a fair degree of intraweek volatility driven almost entirely by the evolving conflict between the United States and Iran. Get access to the graphs:...
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March tested markets from every angle. Here's where things stand.
March 2026 will be remembered as the month geopolitics seized control of global markets. The US-led military intervention in Iran, which began on 1 March, evolved over four weeks from a shock event that most investors expected to be short-lived into what the IEA has labelled the greatest energy...
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The Plumbing is Creaking, But It's Not Quite Time to Run for the Hills with Andrew Hunt
The headlines are alarming. Oil shocks, stagflation talk, investment decisions being deferred. But the case for panic may be premature. The Fed, US Treasury and PBOC have injected extraordinary amounts of liquidity into the global financial system, keeping markets remarkably buoyant even as the...
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War, Oil and the Spectre of Rate Hikes Define a Brutal Week for Markets
It was a week that began with cautious hope and ended in something close to alarm. Global share markets sold off sharply, bond yields surged, and oil climbed relentlessly as the war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated well beyond what most investors had been pricing in just days...
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Who are the disrupted and who are the disruptors with Tim Binsted
The Australian reporting season delivered more beats than misses, with miners and banks leading the way. But the more interesting story played out in software, companies reporting decent numbers only to be dragged back down by broader AI disruption fears. Tim Binsted, Head of Australian Equities...
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The largest oil disruption on record but markets remain resilient
Sixteen days into the US-Iran conflict, markets remain hostage to events in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has traced a remarkable arc since the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February, surging from $67 to touch $120 on 9 March before settling around $101 at the time of writing. The...
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The "SaaSpocalypse" & where Munro Partners is finding growth
The software sector's reckoning has hit global growth managers hard, some down 15% or more in three months. So how has Munro Partners emerged largely unscathed? Portfolio manager Qiao Ma explains how disciplined risk management and genuine diversification made the difference, and where Munro is...
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Middle East conflict drives oil's largest weekly gain on record and Australian shares' worst week since 2022
What began as a targeted air campaign has rapidly escalated into the defining market event of 2026. Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran, has entered its second week with no credible diplomatic off-ramp in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20%…
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Middle East Conflict: Central banks will probably come to the rescue but watch for cracks in credit
The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have markets running the familiar playbook - oil up, gold up, risk assets down. But Andrew Hunt sees a more nuanced picture. Central banks already have a quarter of a trillion dollars in liquidity ready to deploy over the coming weeks, which may stabilise the...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
InvestSense discuss the latest in portfolio management, economics and investments while joined by leading voices from around the world.
Learn more about InvestSense: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-our-solutions
Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here: <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investsense.com.au%2Finvestsense-insights%3Futm_source%3DPodcast%26utm_medium%3DWeekly&data=05%7C02%7Canesci%40investsense.com.au%7C03ca857e25f94431fa9e08dc25e748e2%7Ce4d3024b004f4df5a3351193d2d9c8a7%7C0%7C0%7C638426922527720361%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2Bc5zkCyHfMtOoNAe2ffTm9tOKo5o
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The InvestSense Podcast currently has 257 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The InvestSense Podcast about?
InvestSense discuss the latest in portfolio management, economics and investments while joined by leading voices from around the world. Learn more about InvestSense: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-our-solutions Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here:
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