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Trump says Iran is “being very nice” and “agreeing to everything,” but that sales pitch doesn’t survive contact with the actual reporting. We sit down with Antiwar.com’s Dave DeCamp to sort out what the US Iran memorandum of understanding seems to concede, why both governments are trying to frame the same document as a win, and how the memory of being bombed during earlier negotiations hangs over every new round of talks. We also dig into the most confusing public talking point: nuclear inspections. JD Vance claims Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors back in, Trump talks like inspections last forever, and Iran pushes back hard. Dave walks through what inspectors were already doing, what access Iran has suspended since the June 2025 strikes, and why any lasting nuclear deal likely comes down to verification, uranium downblending, and whether Washington has quietly dropped some of its biggest demands. Then we widen the lens to the real spoiler: Lebanon. Rubio’s line is that Israel is there because of Hezbollah, but a ceasefire without an Israeli withdrawal risks being a ceasefire in name only. We connect that to the Strait of Hormuz fight over tolls and shipping fees, the political backlash from neocons inside the GOP, and a rare congressional move a concurrent War Powers resolution that could strengthen the legal case against restarting an unauthorized Iran war. Finally, we unpack CNN’s report of Iranian drone swarms described as a “jellyfish formation,” and why battlefield realities may be driving diplomacy more than anyone wants to admit. Subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review with your take: pause or peace?

Netanyahu says Israel will stay in a security zone in South Lebanon as long as it takes. That single line turns out to be a stress test for everything else happening at once: the Trump administration’s Iran talks, the push for a Lebanon ceasefire, and the question of whether Washington can restrain an ally when the price shows up in casualties, oil markets, and diplomatic credibility. We walk through what Trump can actually threaten behind the scenes, what he chooses to say publicly, and why the gap between those two matters. When Trump posts late-night warnings about “hitting Iran very hard,” we look at how that kind of bluster lands in Tehran after prior attacks occurred during negotiations. JD Vance tries to frame it as “trash talk” while claiming progress, but we argue the real issue is predictability: if no one can read the signal, every actor plans for the worst-case scenario. Then we get concrete about the deal’s reported pillars and the unglamorous details that decide whether any agreement works. We dig into the Strait of Hormuz reality check: minefields, clearance timelines, insurance constraints, ships stuck in corrosive water for months, and the downstream impact on the global oil market, diesel and jet fuel supplies, and sanctions enforcement. We also discuss IAEA inspectors, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, and why the U.S. may have less leverage than it claims. Finally, we pivot to Ukraine and the escalation map: drone warfare, Russia’s advances, UK long-range missile plans, China’s rare earth minerals leverage, and Belarus as a nuclear doctrine tripwire. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, Middle East security, energy prices, and the future of the Ukraine war, this is the connective tissue people skip. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review with the one point you think policymakers are still missing.

John and I finish reading the chapter on tactics from Rules for Radicals

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Trita Parsi about the deal Trump has apparently made with the Iranians to end the war. They discuss the panic we’re seeing about it from the Israelis and what Trump must do to rein them in and prevent Tel Aviv from sabotaging the peace process. They also discuss Parsi’s recent appearance on Tucker Carlson’s show and The Free Press story that tried to start a deportation scare about him. Discussed on the show: Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States by Trita Parsi A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran by Trita Parsi Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy by Trita Parsi Parsi’s interview with Tucker Carlson Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy. Parsi is the recipient of the 2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Follow him on Twitter @tparsi   Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; Expat Money https://expatmoney.com/; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton) Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

 Download Audio. Scott brings Jason Jones of the Vulnerable Peoples Project back on the show for an update on life for Christians living under the thumb of the IDF and Zionist settlers in the West Bank. Jones cites his personal experience and recent anecdotes from his organization. The two also discuss how the people of Gaza are faring. Discussed on the show: savewestbankchristians.com Jason Jones is a film producer, author, activist, popular podcast host, and dedicated human rights worker. And he is the founder and president of The Vulnerable People Project. Subscribe to his Substack.  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

I give my take of the UFC Whitehouse event and the politics surrounding the even YouTube @YearZeroPod tommysalmons.com

Trump says he wants a deal with Iran. Netanyahu hints the real goal is regime change anyway. That contradiction is where diplomacy goes to die, and it is also where Americans get dragged into a war they did not vote for. We roll solo and ask the blunt question a lot of people are thinking but few say out loud: is Trump still representing the United States, or is he effectively acting as Israel’s president on the Iran war? We unpack Netanyahu’s media strategy and why he may be one of the most effective political operators in modern U.S. history, able to keep influence across parties and across administrations. From there, we get specific about the Iran nuclear program: what “enrichment” actually means, why civilian nuclear energy and medical isotopes matter, and how redefining enrichment as a weapons program guarantees a stalled negotiation. We also compare the coherence of Iranian messaging with the whiplash of American statements on ceasefires, blockades, and end goals. Then we zoom out to the battlefield map and the economy. The Strait of Hormuz, tanker attacks, and regional retaliation all raise the risk of a wider Middle East escalation and higher oil prices that hit U.S. households fast. We close with the House War Powers resolution, why Washington calls it “symbolic,” and why that should worry anyone who still believes Congress is supposed to decide when America goes to war. If you want more clear-eyed analysis of U.S. foreign policy, subscribe, share the show, and leave a review with your take on where this is headed.

Trump didn’t just get “frustrated” with Netanyahu. He confirmed he told him, “Are you effing crazy,” and that single moment raises a bigger question: if the White House is truly fed up, why does the region still look like it’s sliding toward wider war? Jim Webb joins me to break down what matters beneath the gossip-cycle headlines. We talk about Israel’s expanding operations in Lebanon, Iran’s promise to respond harder than tit-for-tat, and the messy reality behind CENTCOM messaging and casualty reporting after attacks tied to Kuwait and Bahrain. If you’ve been wondering whether a ceasefire exists when missiles and drones still fly, we define the terms in plain English and map out where escalation pressures are coming from. We also go where Washington loves to hedge: Israel’s nuclear “non-position” and the legal and political incentives that keep it that way, even though everyone on Capitol Hill knows the score. From there, we connect foreign policy directly to your wallet, from fuel shocks and the Strait of Hormuz risk to what prolonged conflict could mean for inflation and household budgets. Finally, we dig into domestic politics, including the Thomas Massie primary and what massive outside spending signals to every other member of Congress. If you care about US military aid, the Israel lobby, ending the Iran war, and how this all hits the midterms, this is the connective tissue. Subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a rating and review, what do you think is the one move that would actually change US policy?

 Download Audio. Ken Silva joins Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton on Provoked to discuss his new book on the Trump assassination plots, and more. Ken Silva has been a reporter for more than 10 years, working in places such as the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, and the United States. Follow him on Twitter @JD_Cashless For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Trita Parsi about the state of negotiations between the US and Iranian governments, as the ceasefire is frequently broken and the Strait remains largely closed. Parsi explains where he thinks the real sticking points lie and the two consider how Israel is complicating the process. Discussed on the show: Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States by Trita Parsi “Iran’s New Grand Strategy” (Foreign Affairs) TritaParsi.substack.com Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy. Parsi is the recipient of the 2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Follow him on Twitter @tparsi  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

A deal with Iran sounds simple until you read the fine print. We dig into the reports of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift parts of the pressure campaign, then ask the uncomfortable question: is this “freedom of navigation,” or is it a new normal where Iran and Oman set the rules and the fees at the world’s most important oil chokepoint? From there, we get specific about the nuclear issue that could make or break everything. What does it actually mean to “destroy” enriched uranium, and what options exist that are technically real, verifiable, and compatible with the Non-Proliferation Treaty? We talk through downblending, fuel grade caps, IAEA oversight, and why political slogans can’t replace inspection regimes. We also push back on the postwar victory narrative and the attempt to relitigate the JCPOA instead of facing what changed on the ground. Then we move to the part many leaders try to bracket off, but can’t: Lebanon and Gaza. If a ceasefire is supposed to apply to Lebanon, does that require Israel to stop bombing and withdraw from the south? And when an Israeli soldier describes Gaza with no meaningful civilian rules of engagement, alongside UN reporting on detainee abuse, what does that demand from U.S. policy and public honesty?

Congress is hollowing out, and the consequences show up first in foreign policy. Dan McAdams returns to talk with us about what Thomas Massie’s primary loss signals for antiwar oversight, why the Ron Paul era of forcing floor debates through appropriations fights is largely gone, and how that vacuum makes it easier for Washington to slide into the next conflict without friction. We dig into Iran and the so-called ceasefire: the strikes, the responses, and the familiar pattern of narrative manipulation where the U.S. can provoke, then rebrand escalation as “defense.” We also unpack the latest claims of a draft Trump Iran deal, why leak-driven reporting deserves extra skepticism, and how media pipelines can function like message distribution for competing interests rather than real journalism. From there we move to Israel and Gaza, including Netanyahu’s comments that point toward annexation, the U.S. role in funding and arming the campaign, and the way Lebanon and Hezbollah complicate any regional settlement. We also discuss harrowing firsthand accounts of Gaza’s blockade and a political paradox: anti-intervention voices are breaking through culturally, but votes and power haven’t caught up yet. Finally, we zoom out to Latin America, from Javier Milei and BRICS anxiety to U.S. drug war strikes in Guatemala and the danger of normalizing kill-first policy without due process.

John and I skip reading Rules for Radicals this week and discuss ideas that have been bogging us down for the last few months.

A ceasefire is supposed to lower the temperature, not provide new vocabulary for the same war. We unpack reports that the U.S. bombed targets in Iran after a ceasefire and why calling it “self-defense” can still function as a direct escalation. I walk through what those strikes signal, how each side tries to define the rules midstream, and why Iran may tolerate only so many “limited” hits before choosing a bigger response. From there, we get specific about the hard constraints behind the headlines: weapons stockpiles, interceptor burn rates, and how long it can take to replace key munitions. That context changes everything about threats, deterrence, and the realism of returning to a high-intensity U.S. Iran war. We also break down Marco Rubio’s public talking points on Iran’s nuclear program, what U.S. intelligence and international monitoring have said, and the reported outlines of a possible memorandum of understanding that touches sanctions relief, frozen assets, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s White House remarks add another layer, including talk about Hormuz control and a shocking shot at Oman, one of the most important mediators in U.S. Iran diplomacy. We connect that to the bigger regional picture, including Israel, Lebanon, and the Washington voices pushing to keep the fight going. Finally, we pivot to Jill Biden saying she feared Joe Biden was “having a stroke” during the 2024 debate and what that raises about cognitive decline, transparency, and the massive war powers concentrated in the presidency.

CJ decided he needed a break from modern US history as he continues to recover & reset his life, so this is the first episode of a new DHP miniseries set during the Peloponnesian War in 5th century BC Greece. The series will primarily focus on a famous Athenian military expedition to Sicily that occurred right in the middle of that conflict, an expedition that, to CJ, is eerily similar in some ways to the current war with Iran. This first episode, though, is backstory & world-building, setting the stage for the massive, complex & costly Peloponnesian War of 431-404 BC during which the Sicilian expedition occurred. Join CJ as he discusses: A brief overview of ancient Greek history, from the Bronze Age through the Persian invasions of 490 & 480 BC. The growing rivalries & tensions between the Peloponnesian League (led by Sparta) & the Delian League (led by Athens) in the aftermath of the Persian Wars, including Athens’ increasingly aggressive & destabilizing imperialism, & Sparta’s fears about it The rise of Pericles & the construction of the Athenian Long Walls The ‘first’ Peloponnesian War of ~460 BC-445 BC, which ended with a treaty known as “The Thirty Years’ Peace” The rising tensions & conflicts that caused the Thirty Years’ Peace to only last about half as long as it was intended to The ancient Greek historian Thucydides The escalating conflicts that led, in 431 BC, to the outbreak of the Second Peloponnesian War (sometimes just referred to as “The Peloponnesian War”), a conflict that would end up dwarfing the previous war in duration, cost, death & destruction Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Amazon Affiliate Links (buy ANYTHING from Amazon using any of these links & CJ gets a small commission at no cost to you!) The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War by Victor Davis Hanson The Peloponnesian War by Donald Kagan The Life of Greece: The Story of Civilization, Vol. II by Will Durant Links Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Subscribe to the Dangerous History Podcast Youtube Channel Follow CJ on Twitter/X Follow the DHP on Facebook Hire CJ to speak to your group or at your event Other ways to support the show

Memorial Day brings out a lot of scripted lines, but we want to talk about the part that gets avoided: what American wars actually cost, who pays, and how often the public is left holding the bill while elites chase ideology, influence, and profit. We start by looking at the human consequences for service members and veterans, and why so many deployments overseas end with the same problems still on the table, just with more graves and more resentment. Then we shift into the biggest moving story right now: Iran negotiations, the Iran nuclear program, and why the phrase “on the brink of a deal” can be more propaganda than reality. We break down uranium enrichment in plain language, what the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty allows, and why demanding “zero enrichment” is not a technical detail but a deal-killer. We also explain how Lebanon and Hezbollah change the endgame, why escalations in southern Lebanon can function as sabotage, and how the Strait of Hormuz becomes real leverage that reshapes every calculation. We also react to Trump’s messaging, including his push to fold Iran into the Abraham Accords, what those normalization deals have meant in practice, and how they can drive an arms race while adding impossible complexity to already fragile diplomacy. Along the way, we play and respond to clips featuring Cory Booker, plus a debate moment where Mearsheimer and Walt confront Pompeo and Nuland’s talking points, and we close with a quick look at Thomas Massie signaling a possible national run.

Trump says he wants “few people killed,” then talks like bombing Iran is a weekly calendar event. That contradiction is where we start, because the public narrative around the Iran war keeps snapping from all-out threats to last-minute “negotiations” as deadlines magically extend. I walk through why that cycle looks less like strategy and more like a president boxed in by bad options, public messaging, and allies with their own priorities. From there, we get into the part most outlets blur: the difference between political victory laps and what US intelligence and reporting suggest on the ground. If Iran can rebuild its drone program faster than expected and still holds a large share of missile and launcher capacity, then “we crippled them” becomes a dangerous story to believe. We also talk about what Iran likely learned from recent strikes and why modern drone warfare and air defense evolve at a pace that makes simple claims obsolete. Then we widen the lens to the power side of the equation: can Trump actually control Netanyahu, or is Washington being pulled by Israeli pressure through Congress? I connect that to a Washington Post-reported defense strategy that burns through American interceptor stockpiles, and to the Thomas Massie primary loss, where massive spending and media targeting mattered more than most people want to admit. If you want clear Iran war analysis, Strait of Hormuz leverage, uranium enrichment stakes, and the US politics that shape it all, hit play. Subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, what’s the one detail you think the mainstream story keeps avoiding?

Dave joins me to discuss his rediscovery of faith, how it supports his work, and the wars America is involved in. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/christians-and-hezbollah-unite-against-epstein-empire/ar-AA1ZcAt2

A professor makes a $500 campaign donation and suddenly gets cast as the “most important man in America” pulling congressional strings. That absurd story is the perfect doorway into what we really care about here: how narratives get manufactured, why propaganda works, and what it’s doing to both domestic politics and foreign policy. We start with science diplomacy and cultural diplomacy, the old-school idea that researchers, students, artists, and athletes can keep human ties alive even when governments can’t stand each other. Joe explains how that cooperative model is being redefined across the West into something closer to state leverage, where technology sharing and academic exchange are treated as tools to punish rivals. We connect that to a broader post-truth media environment, where sound bites beat evidence, repetition beats nuance, and voters can be segmented by where they get their news. Then we move to North Korea and try to replace slogans with incentives. We talk Kim Jong-un’s regime survival logic, the strategic reasons nuclear deterrence persists, and why US policy whiplash makes long-term deals hard to trust. We also dig into North Korea’s tightening relationship with Russia, China’s concern about influence and instability on its border, and how sanctions can push sanctioned states into deeper trade and technology cooperation. Finally, we touch on rare earth minerals and why they could matter in the next phase of Korean Peninsula geopolitics. If you want a clearer framework for understanding science diplomacy, misinformation, and North Korea strategy, listen through and share it with someone who only sees headlines. Subscribe, leave a review, and tell us what you think credible peace and credible reporting should look like.

Trump’s China summit gets sold as strength, but the details tell a different story. We dig into what the U.S. says it achieved versus what China actually signals afterward, especially on Iran and regional security. From our seat, the big issue is leverage: if Beijing won’t bend and Washington can’t compel, the talking points don’t matter much. That gap shows up immediately in the most unglamorous place possible, supply chains and rare earth minerals that can quietly slow U.S. weapons production. We also get into Taiwan and the argument you hear everywhere: microchips, economic survival, and the idea that the U.S. has no choice but to confront China. We challenge that framing with a hard look at policy commitments, strategic ambiguity, and whether arms sales mean anything if the industrial base can’t deliver on time. If you care about U.S. China relations, Taiwan strategy, and the real limits of military power, this part connects the dots in plain language. Then we turn to Iran and the “short, powerful strike” narrative. We walk through the operational reality: aircraft range, KC-135 air refueling, basing in the Gulf, and why Saudi, Qatari, and Kuwaiti cooperation can effectively veto a plan. We also talk escalation, the Strait of Hormuz, and how regional actors could widen the conflict fast. Finally, we bring it home to U.S. politics with the Israel lobby debate and the high-stakes Thomas Massey primary as a test of money, influence, and war policy. Subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review telling us what you think we got right or wrong.

  I discuss the darker side of celebrating war and the moral injury of wars of choice. Memorial Day is a day of remembrance and an existential wake.This day is about the ashes of victory and blood lakes of defeat. I show how the American way of war is far more brutal and murderous than the usual suspects let on.***This episode is not for the squeamish or faint of heart.***U.S. WAR CRIMES IN THE PHILIPPINESJames M. Scott Rampage: MacArthur, Yamashita, and the Battle of ManilaHoward Jones My Lai: Vietnam, 1968, and the Descent into DarknessKarl Marlantes What It Is Like to Go to WarBill Russel Edmonds God is Not Here: A Soldier’s Struggle with Torture, Trauma, and the Moral Injuries of WarClark Savage King of All Things: A Guide to Man’s Martial PurposeDick Couch A Tactical Ethic: Moral Conduct in the Insurgent BattlespaceAndrew Bacevich Paths of Dissent: Soldiers Speak Out Against America’s Misguided WarsShauna Springer WARRIOR: How to Support Those Who Protect UsJonathan Shay Achilles in Vietnam: Combat Trauma and the Undoing of CharacterJonathan Shay Odysseus in America: Combat Trauma and the Trials of HomecomingAnother podcast:Martyrmade: Anything That Moves – The My Lai Massacre (w/History on Fire)Email me at [email protected] Substack    

 Download Audio. Scott brings Dave DeCamp back on the show to run through some of the biggest foreign policy news. They start with Trump’s trip to meet with Xi in China which may have had some implications for US policy towards Taiwan. They then discuss whether Trump is really planning to bomb Iran again if talks continue to get nowhere. DeCamp then provides an update on the chaos and violence that has kicked off in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza as a result of Trump and Netanyahu’s decision to launch their regional war. Discussed on the show: “Trump Says He Decided To ‘Hold Off’ on Plans To Attack Iran on Tuesday Due To Request From Gulf Arab Allies” (Antiwar.com) “Israeli Strikes Kill Seven in Lebanon, Overall War Toll Passes 3,000 Killed” (Antiwar.com) “Israeli Strike on Gaza City Kills One Palestinian as Constant IDF Ceasefire Violations Continue” (Antiwar.com) Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com and the host of Antiwar News with Dave DeCamp. Follow him on Twitter @decampdave  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

John and I continue commentary and reading Rules for Radicals

A president calling reporters “treasonous” isn’t just a hot take, it’s a warning sign. Harrison Berger joins me to break down how that rhetoric is being used to police debate around the Iran war, and why it echoes years of reckless “traitor” accusations aimed at anyone who questions America’s national security consensus. We start with the Israel lobby and J Street, the organization often marketed as the reasonable, liberal alternative to AIPAC. Harrison explains what J Street is, who it appeals to, and why its “pro-Israel and pro-democracy” framing is colliding with shifting US public opinion after the Gaza war. We also talk about the idea of a new antiwar center forming across party lines, where younger voters and non-interventionists are increasingly skeptical of endless foreign aid packages and blank-check military policy. From there we get specific about the Iran conflict: what claims of “total victory” leave out, how the Strait of Hormuz and regional ceasefire demands shape leverage, and why negotiations bog down when Washington stays fixated on narrow talking points while Iran prioritizes sanctions relief and non-aggression guarantees. We close on Taiwan and China, where Trump’s walkback gestures toward de-escalation, but Congress, arms sales pipelines, and defense procurement inertia may keep pushing the US toward another dangerous commitment. Subscribe for more conversations like this, share the episode with a friend who cares about foreign policy, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

Trump comes back from Beijing claiming he got a major concession from Xi on Iran, but what happens when the key details are private, unverifiable, and packaged for headlines? We walk through the public messaging, the contradictions, and the incentives on both sides, then ask the blunt question: was this diplomacy, or was it theater designed to look like leverage? We also dig into Xi’s unusually direct framing about a world “at a crossroads” and the Thucydides Trap, and why that language matters for U.S.-China relations, great power competition, and the risk of conflict over Taiwan. From there, we zoom out to the uncomfortable economics underneath the politics: the U.S. fixation on zero-sum thinking, the role of finance and corporate power, and why sanctions and “decoupling” rhetoric keep colliding with the reality that American industry still wants access to China’s market. Then the conversation turns to Middle East geopolitics where the leverage is tangible. We break down Iran’s position in the Strait of Hormuz, what it means when Chinese shipping can keep moving, and why Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are floating non-aggression ideas that could quietly constrain U.S. basing and overflight options across the GCC. We close by looking at China’s growing role as a facilitator, the UAE as an outlier, and what a post-U.S.-dominant regional order might look like. If you want clearer thinking on Trump foreign policy, Xi Jinping diplomacy, Iran strategy, and the shifting balance of power, hit play, subscribe, and share the episode with a friend. After you listen, what do you think is the biggest misread Washington makes about China right now?

Trump heads to China with a lineup of high-profile U.S. business leaders, but we can’t treat it like a normal trade trip. We dig into the uncomfortable reality underneath the photo ops: America’s dependence on rare earth minerals and specialized refining, including gallium used in key defense systems. When conflict drains equipment and replacement timelines stretch into years, “leverage” starts looking a lot like a supply chain problem with geopolitical consequences. From there, we track the signs that the Iran war could ramp back up fast, including talk of a new operation name and the legal gymnastics around the War Powers Act. We weigh Trump’s stated focus on Iran and nuclear weapons against the real-world costs hitting Americans at home, especially gasoline prices and broader inflation. Then we pressure-test victory claims with reported intelligence assessments, missile math, and the equipment losses that matter when deterrence depends on readiness. We also take a detour to Ukraine, where Russia’s public ceasefire conditions and nuclear signaling add another layer to already fragile negotiations, especially as U.S. munitions stockpiles tighten. Finally, we bring it back to U.S. politics with the AOC vs MTG clash and Mike Huckabee’s rhetoric, asking how labels and moral gatekeeping shape what coalitions are even possible on Israel, Gaza, and foreign policy. Subscribe for daily breakdowns, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with the one point you think the media is missing most.

Good news — things have finally stabilized for CJ & his family, & he has finally fully recovered from the illnesses that caused him to be hospitalized in March! He’s now back at the podcasting game full-force, hard at work on upcoming Dangerous History material, & this week he also returned Brave the New World, the weekly current events & media analysis show that he cohosts with Matt Carano. This DHP episode features the audio of CJ’s triumphant return to BTNW after a few months’ absence. Join CJ & Matt as they discuss the low- & even-lower-lights of current events in recent months, & try to come to grips with the insanity that the 2nd Trump administration is inflicting on the world. Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Links Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Other ways to support the show (including CJ’s PO Box address) BTNW on Youtube BTNW on Spotify BTNW on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to the Dangerous History Podcast Youtube Channel Follow CJ on Twitter/X Follow the DHP on Instagram Follow the DHP on Facebook Hire CJ to speak to your group or at your event

One bad assumption can start a bigger war, and nowhere is that clearer than the Strait of Hormuz. Kyle sits down with Larry Johnson to sort through the morning’s flood of claims and counterclaims: reported Iranian missile and drone attacks, damage to Gulf oil facilities, U.S. strikes at sea, and the growing risk that escalation turns into a sustained U.S. air campaign against Iran. We focus on what can be verified, what is propaganda, and what the military movements suggest is coming next. We also get practical about what “control of the strait” really means. If ships are staying hundreds of miles offshore to avoid Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, can a naval blockade be more talk than reality? Larry lays out the layered threats that make the waterway so hard to “open” quickly: mines, mini submarines, underwater drones, fast attack craft, coastal cruise missiles, and the limits of vessel boarding at scale. For anyone searching Strait of Hormuz analysis, U.S. Navy capabilities, or Iran escalation risk, this is a grounded look at geography and logistics rather than slogans. Then we connect the battlefield to your wallet. We talk oil supply disruption, why missing barrels compound over weeks, how gas prices react, and why sanctions and currency shifts like yuan-based oil payments can reshape global energy markets. We close by looking at the shrinking space for diplomacy, Iran’s negotiating posture on nuclear enrichment, and the political pressures leaders face when they need an off ramp. Subscribe for more deep dives, share the episode with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review telling us what question you want answered next.

A journalist can be jailed, raided, and investigated for more than a year without ever being charged and that’s not a glitch, it’s the point. I sit down with investigative journalist Richard Medhurst to talk about his legal situation spanning the UK and Austria, where authorities have attempted to frame journalism as terrorism. We dig into what that kind of pressure does to reporting, academic work, and basic free speech, especially when the topic is Gaza and Western foreign policy. Then we zoom out to the story Richard says most people are missing: the energy war underneath the news. He argues the U.S. is executing a coherent strategy to dominate global oil and gas supply, protect dollar power, and reshape who gets energy and at what price. We walk through strikes on Russian tankers, refineries, and export hubs, disruptions to LNG flows impacting China, and why “economic defeat” and “military humiliation” aren’t the same thing in long-term geopolitical planning. We also look at Europe’s role in replacing Russian gas, the Mediterranean gas deals tied to major corporations like Chevron, and the debate over whether Israel drives U.S. decisions or functions as a proxy within a larger corporate-led project. Finally, Richard brings firsthand context from Vienna and the IAEA, explaining how Iran has repeatedly offered nuclear off-ramps while the West escalates with sanctions and condemnation. If this gave you a new lens on press freedom, energy geopolitics, the petrodollar, and U.S. foreign policy, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review with the one claim you think people most need to argue about.

“Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated” is a bold claim to make under oath, especially when the same testimony implies Iran’s ambitions remain. We sit down with Jim Webb to pull apart the contradictions, the messaging, and the strategy vacuum that shows up when leaders sell total victory while hinting we may need the next round of strikes. We get into the details most coverage skips: what uranium enrichment levels do and don’t mean, how the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty shapes the argument, and how the U.S. exit from the JCPOA changed Iran’s incentives. From there, we stress-test the scare stories by looking at deterrence and mutually assured destruction, then compare the “North Korea path” framing with the darker lesson many governments took from Libya: give up your leverage and you might not survive. The second half turns practical and blunt. We talk about the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices, and what a real negotiation might require, including the controversial question of U.S. military bases in the Middle East and whether they deter conflict or simply create targets and hostages. We also break down reports of deploying Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles, shrinking standoff-munitions inventories, and what it signals when targets move inland and our “easy options” disappear. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, Iran negotiations, Middle East escalation risks, and the real state of American military capacity, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share it with a friend, and leave a review with your answer: what would a realistic endgame with Iran look like?  

Trump’s second term was supposed to be the reset: less chaos, fewer neocons, and a renewed focus on problems at home. Instead, we’re watching an Iran conflict spiral while the administration sells the public a fantasy of easy wins and controlled escalation. I’m joined again by Dave Smith from Part of the Problem to revisit the 2024 election hangover and the uncomfortable question hanging over the right: was backing Trump a strategic mistake? We talk through what a Harris presidency might have meant for censorship, the border, regulation, and war, then pivot to what’s undeniable now: the incentives around Trump have changed, and his decision-making looks driven by perception and ego more than principle. From there we get into the real stakes of the Iran war, including why “regime change by air” is a long-shot story, how the Strait of Hormuz turns foreign policy into immediate pain at the pump, and why ending the war could still look like historic humiliation. We also connect the dots to the midterms, Democratic messaging on Gaza and Israel, rising calls for tech censorship against antiwar voices, and the baffling White House security incident that kicked off a wave of conspiracy talk. If you want clear-eyed political analysis that doesn’t treat propaganda as news, hit play. Subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

The scariest part of the U.S.-Iran standoff isn’t the loud headlines. It’s the quiet math of distance, missiles, and leverage at the Strait of Hormuz. We sit down with Larry Johnson to unpack Iran’s reported “new” framework and why it may be the same core message: lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and Iran controls access through Hormuz while allowing shipping to move. From there, we get brutally practical about what the U.S. can and cannot do militarily. Carrier strike groups have to operate far offshore to avoid Iranian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones, which pushes Washington toward standoff weapons like Tomahawks and JASSMs. That sounds clean until you ask the real question: what happens when those stockpiles are running thin and you still want credible deterrence against bigger priorities like China? We also talk about reports of improving Iranian air defenses, why that could force even more reliance on standoff munitions, and how reputational damage compounds when adversaries see limits in U.S. power projection. On the geopolitical front, we explore Russia and China’s likely role in intelligence support and why diplomacy through intermediaries matters as much as public posturing. And yes, we react to the claim that Iran’s oil system is days from catastrophic pipeline failure, and what it says about the quality of intelligence feeding top decisions. If you want clear-eyed analysis of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and blockade dynamics, missile stockpiles, and the future of aircraft carriers in modern warfare, hit subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review. What’s your read on where this goes next?

Daniel Miller joined me to discuss the Texas Nationalist Movement, its history and progress. TNM.me Texian.app

 Download Audio. Scott brings Daniel Davis back on the show. As the world’s been focused on what’s happening between the US and Iran, important developments have taken place in Russia’s war with Ukraine. Scott and Davis break these down and then finish with a quick reflection on the ongoing economic standoff between the US and Iran. Discussed on the show: Daniel Davis / Deep Dive Daniel Davis did multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan during his time in the army. He is a Senior Fellow at Defense Priorities and is the author of the reports “Dereliction of Duty II: Senior Military Leaders’ Loss of Integrity Wounds Afghan War Effort” and “Go Big or Go Deep: An Analysis of Strategy Options on Afghanistan.” Find him on Twitter @DanielLDavis1and subscribe to his YouTube Channel.  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The Strait of Hormuz is the kind of choke point people talk about in theory, right up until it closes and the whole global economy starts to feel it. We’re joined by Ambassador Chas Freeman, a veteran American diplomat, to make sense of the US-Iran ceasefire drama and the bigger reality underneath it: Iran is not looking for a new ultimatum, and Washington is struggling to offer anything that resembles real negotiations. We dig into why “maximum pressure” often produces the opposite of its stated goals, including the risk that repeated attacks convince Tehran it needs a nuclear deterrent. We also break down the Strait of Hormuz blockade and why it can fail strategically and legally while still harming allies who rely on Gulf transit. Along the way, we talk oil price whiplash, credibility problems, and the downstream effects that show up weeks later in refineries, inflation, fertilizer, and gas at the pump. From East Asia blowback to the question of how a Trump-Xi summit would actually play out, the through line is simple: diplomacy is a craft, and the costs of amateur-hour statecraft land on everyone. If you care about US foreign policy, global energy security, and how wars end, this conversation is for you.

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Trita Parsi about the ceasefire and negotiations between the Trump administration and the Iranians. Parsi believes, while this was a strategic defeat for the US, the ceasefire has given Trump the opportunity to walk away with no deal and that that’s likely what he’ll end up doing. Scott and Parsi dig into the specifics and discuss the broader regional dynamic going forward concerning Iran’s proxies and the Israelis. Discussed on the show: “How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran” (New York Times) Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy. Parsi is the recipient of the 2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Follow him on Twitter @tparsi Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

(*This is a reissue of a Dangerous History Episode first published in Aug. 2015) In this episode, CJ discusses two different paradigms of what war is supposed to be and how it is supposed to be fought.  One is the Western (or European) Way, which originated in Greece and from there filtered through the Romans to become the dominant paradigm among Westerners to this day. The other is the Eastern (or Asian) Way, which originated in China and from there filtered to other parts of the Asian world and beyond, and which forms the intellectual basis of much of modern unconventional tactics and strategy. Join CJ as he discusses: The origins of the Western Way and how it has evolved over the centuries The origins of the Eastern Way and how it has evolved over the centuries Why this matters to understanding the modern world in general, and the history of modern unconventional warfare in particular Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Other ways to support the show (including CJ’s PO Box mailing address)

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds like a clean, decisive move until you run it through the real world: geography, international law, ship insurance, and the uncomfortable question of what happens when the other side shoots back. We sit down with Lt Col Karen Kwiatkowski to parse Trump’s threat to interdict ships tied to Iranian oil and why “the greatest navy in the world” is not the same thing as a navy that can safely enforce a blockade in a narrow, heavily contested chokepoint. We dig into the operational side of maritime power, from US shipbuilding constraints to costly programs that never matched a realistic strategy. Karen explains why uncertainty is the real market killer: mines do not even have to be confirmed to spike insurance rates, freeze tanker traffic, and disrupt the global supply chain. We also ask what it means to stop third country vessels in international waters, and why targeting tankers linked to China, India, Pakistan, Japan, or South Korea could blow up relationships the US has spent decades trying to build across Asia. Then we widen the lens to diplomacy and messaging. We question why nuclear negotiations would be handled without deep technical expertise, how Israel’s priorities shape US posture toward Iran, and why an EMP scare claim on cable news collapses under basic scrutiny of incentives, treaty history, and inspection records. We close with a blunt conversation about propaganda, legitimacy, and the strange politics of personality cult symbols, including Trump’s AI “Jesus” image and what it signals about power at home and credibility abroad. If this conversation helps you think clearer, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find it.

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Matt Wolfson about an article he recently wrote about the United Arab Emirates. Wolfson argues that the US and Israel have helped build up the UAE into a regional power with an increasingly interventionist foreign policy of its own. Discussed on the show: “The United Arab Emirates: America and Israel’s Frankenstein Monster” (The Libertarian Institute) “In Strategic Shift, U.S. Draws Closer to Yemeni Rebels” (Wall Street Journal) “US maintains intelligence relationship with Houthis” (Al-Monitor) “U.S. intelligence report says key gulf ally meddled in American politics” (Washington Post) Matt Wolfson is an investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The American Conservative, The Epoch Times, Restoration of America News, and many others. Follow him on Twitter (X) @Oppo__Research and find his full body of work at his website. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The fastest way to understand the Iran war scare isn’t cable news hype, it’s leverage. We sit down with Larry Johnson to map what Tehran is demanding, why Washington looks desperate for an exit plan, and how a single chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, can squeeze the global economy. If ships need to pay a steep user fee to move in and out of the Persian Gulf, the story instantly becomes bigger than battlefield headlines: it’s oil prices, shipping risk, inflation pressure, and a potential global recession. We also pressure-test Trump’s public posture that Iran “has no cards” against the hard constraints on escalation. We talk through why naval and ground options look limited, why crossing the nuclear line would be globally destabilizing, and how sanctions and frozen assets have become the real bargaining table. Larry lays out a plausible face-saving deal where sanctions are lifted, assets are released, and Iran returns to JCPOA-style enrichment limits and intrusive inspections, while still refusing to surrender its core rights. Then we widen the lens to the alliance and war system around it: NATO strain, Israel’s growing political backlash, and what the Middle East focus means for Ukraine as Russia advances and Western air defense and missile inventories run thin. If you’re searching for clear geopolitical analysis on Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz, US foreign policy, NATO cohesion, and the future of Ukraine, this conversation connects the dots. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows world affairs, and leave a review. What do you think is the most misunderstood piece of leverage right now?

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” Richard P. Feynman *** “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.” The Donald Rumsfeld matrix I examine the strategic deficit disorder that absolutely dominates the US and western military establishments I speak to the tools and critical thinking modalities that could spark and encourage competent martial imagination. Moral courage is necessary to tell the flag officer dullards and their Senior Executive Service (SES) necromancers that the emperor has no clothes. If not, the unblemished record of defeat and stalemate will continue. I describe some of the reasons I do it and the techniques I employ to get the single most accurate picture of what happened then to determine what’s going on now. Recommended Listening: On Strategic Empathy Recommended Reading: Christian Madsbjerg Sensemaking: The Power of the Humanities in the Age of the Algorithm Johnson and Abbe Developing Strategic Empathy and Perspective Taking in Military Zachary Shore A Sense of the Enemy: The High Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind Dave Snowden Cynefin – Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World Mortimer Adler How To Read a Book Robert Strassler The Landmark Xenophon’s Hellenika (Landmark Series) Mike Snook How Can Man Die Better: The Secrets of Isandlwana Revealed Mike Snook Like Wolves on the Fold: The Defence of Rorke’s Drift David Stahel Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s Defeat in the East David Hackett Fischer Historians’ Fallacies : Toward a Logic of Historical Thought Keith Windschuttle The Killing of History John Burrow A History of Histories: Epics, Chronicles, and Inquiries from Herodotus and Thucydides to the Twentieth Century Harry Elmer Barnes A History of Historical Writing US Army Center of Military History My Substack Email at [email protected]

John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals

 Download Audio. Scott brought Robert Pape of the University of Chicago back to discuss the attempted ceasefire that went into effect on Wednesday night. Pape explains why this is not actually a meaningful step away from the escalation to a full-on war that he’s long been warning about. He also talks about how this is war is cementing Iran’s status as a world power and why he expects the Iranians to abandon their previous stance, begin earnestly pursuing nuclear weapons and attain them quickly. Discussed on the show: “The Pause That Isn’t: Why the Iran Ceasefire Changes Everything” (The Escalation Trap) “The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power” (The New York Times) Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Follow him on Twitter @ProfessorPape Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

“We’re winning” is easy to post. It’s much harder to define when the missiles keep flying, the Strait of Hormuz becomes a choke point, and the only clear destination seems to be a negotiation table. We sit down with Chief Fritz, a former Command Chief Master Sergeant, to pressure test the confidence, separate opinion from fact, and ask the uncomfortable question: if the U.S. is dominating Iran, why does the strategy feel so improvised? We talk through the military reality behind an air campaign, including readiness, munitions, interceptors, and what an attrition war looks like when Iran can still strike bases and allies across the region. Chief Fritz draws direct parallels to the Iraq War playbook, arguing that shifting rationales and inexperienced leadership can push the country into a conflict without a clear end state. We also explore escalation risks, including whether nuclear weapons are a real fear, and why Iran’s ballistic missile program functions as a central deterrent. Then we go where most coverage avoids: who benefits, who pays, and who bleeds. We discuss claims that the war is being waged primarily on behalf of Israel, the role of lobbying and Pentagon influence, and what it means for enlisted men and women who may be ordered into harm’s way. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, the Iran war, Israel-Gaza spillover risks, oil prices, and the lessons of Iraq, this is a necessary listen. Subscribe, share with a friend, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway.

Iran isn’t just trading blows with the US and Israel. According to our guest, the fight is turning fixed American advantages like bases, radars, and regional headquarters into fragile targets, forcing withdrawals and relocations across the Middle East. We walk through what it means when places like Al-Udeid, Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet footprint, and multiple high-end radar sites take hits and why “no massive casualties” does not automatically mean “no massive damage.” From there, we connect the battlefield to the economy. Oil and LNG infrastructure disruption is framed as the kind of shock that can ripple into global inflation, shipping risk, and political pressure at home, especially with the Strait of Hormuz looming over everything. We also unpack Trump’s public threats and sudden delays, asking whether the messaging is about real negotiations or simply buying time for major reinforcements like a Marine Expeditionary Unit to get into position. Then we get brutally practical about military feasibility. Could the US actually seize Karg Island or “open” the Strait of Hormuz with limited forces? We pressure-test WWII analogies, talk terrain and coastal defenses, and look at why mines, drones, fast-attack craft, and underwater threats make “quick fixes” unlikely. Finally, we dig into troop morale, the aircraft carrier fire controversy, and the harder constraint that rarely makes headlines: interceptor depletion, missile production limits, and rare earth mineral supply chain problems. If you care about the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, US military readiness, oil prices, and what escalation looks like when logistics are strained, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with your take: do you think this ends with de-escalation or a wider regional war?

Things are getting weirder. Vital Dissent website Join my email list and become a premium member: http://www.vitaldissent.club Vital Dissent Merch 10% off with code VD10 Show notes:  Terence McKenna ‘s Final Interview http://www.vitaldissent.com/email

John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals

$200 billion is not a rounding error, it’s a signal that Washington is settling in for a long Iran war while pretending it can buy its way out of the consequences. We walk through the Pentagon’s latest funding push, why leaders keep hinting the price tag will rise, and what “replenishing stockpiles” really means when Patriot interceptors, THAAD systems, and advanced radar take years to replace. If you care about defense spending, Pentagon accountability, and the defense industrial base, this conversation connects the dollars to the hard limits nobody wants to admit. We also challenge the messaging used to sell escalation, including the way faith, family, and fallen service members get pulled into public arguments for continuing the fight. From there, we widen the frame to the region: reporting from Lebanon, the dangers journalists face in active war zones, and how quickly a conflict sold as contained starts to spread across multiple fronts. Then we follow the money and the politics. Polling suggests many Americans think the war benefits Israel more than the United States, and we dig into what that could mean for the GOP, for Democrats who won’t clearly break from pro-war consensus, and for officials inside government who try to dissent. Finally, we get into the oil-price panic moves: “break the glass” plans, sanction reversals, and why talk of letting Iranian oil flow to keep prices down exposes how fragile the strategy has become, especially after strikes tied to South Pars and the hit to Qatar LNG capacity. If this helped you see the bigger picture, subscribe for more, share the episode with someone who argues about foreign policy, and leave a review with the one question you still can’t shake.

The part that doesn’t get said out loud often enough is this: you can be “aligned” in a war and still be on a collision course. We dig into why U.S. goals in Iran and Israel’s goals in Iran don’t just differ, they actively clash and how that clash shows up in assassinations that erase diplomatic options and strikes that look designed to cripple Iran’s long-term ability to function as a state. We also zoom out to the stories getting buried while everyone watches missiles and maps. Using recent UN reporting and on-the-ground dynamics, we talk about accelerated West Bank settlement expansion, displacement, settler violence, and what happens to Gaza when aid is cut and the world’s attention drifts. The bigger takeaway is uncomfortable: regional escalation can create cover for permanent facts on the ground in Palestine, even as leaders insist their focus is elsewhere. Then we bring it home to the U.S. economy and politics: the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil volatility, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and the growing risk that oil trade shifts away from the dollar toward the yuan. We also walk through polling that shows Americans turning against the war and why even pro-Trump respondents say they want a fast exit. Finally, we react to Tulsi Gabbard’s Senate Intelligence Committee testimony, the threat framing that lumps Iran with nuclear powers, and the pointed exchange over whether Iran posed an “imminent” nuclear threat. If you want clearer thinking on U.S. foreign policy, the Israel Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, and the real incentives pushing escalation, subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

New Chasing Ghosts Podcast episode is live Monday 30 April 2026.   Ep 080 “The Cargo Cult of Martial Belief, Wishcasting and Bloodshed”   Episode 100!   Well, when I combine the 20 episodes of WarNotes with the CG podcasts but a chance to pop the bubbly anyway.   Today we discuss the critical lack of critical thinking that has led the US into the unenviable position of being an extraordinarily 20th century fighting force nor fit for purpose for 21st century peer combat.   It will get worse.   I’ll offer some more recommendations and a path forward.   Buppert’s Law of Military Topography: “Mountainous terrain held by riflemen who know what they are about cannot be militarily defeated.”   I have been scarce on the X but you can find daily brain-zephyrs from me at my Substack Notes section where I am not distracted by the time vampire here.   You can find the episodes on your favorite podcast vendor.   Notes: http://cgpodcast.substack.com/notes   Email me at [email protected]