PODCAST · business
The Macro Trading Floor
by Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
Episodes
-
AI Bubble Popping Or A Boring Pullback?
Alf and Brent are back on the show to discuss the recent price action in AI stocks which is also heavily impacting the bond market. Is the AI bubble popping? Are credit fears to be taken seriously, such that the asset allocation has to change? Or is this just a boring pullback like the many…
more -
6% Yields Next & Will Stonks Handle It?
Alf and Brent discuss the relentless bond yield and USD move. Can we get to 6% yields in the US, or even higher? And will stonks be able to handle it?
-
Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now?
Alf and Brent are back to discuss the various macro blowups we are witnessing simultaneously: French spreads, front-end of the bond market, mortgage-backed securities, EM carry and so on. What's the best framework to apply for each of these?
-
On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades
Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two macro idiosyncratic ideas.
-
On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY
In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use options, and how to size them?
-
Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes
Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight for everyone. How to handle such a market environment?
-
The Orange Variable
Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these injections of uncertainty, and what are the best trading and risk management...
-
The Rebasement Trade
Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?
-
The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options
To reach out to Alf: [email protected] (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: [email protected] (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways to position for the macro environment ahead of us. They then deep dive into...
-
Process, Process, Process
To reach out to Alf: [email protected] (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: [email protected] (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their investment/risk management process. They discuss several ideas and how to...
-
Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World
To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, how the world might look like when Hormuz reopens, the Japanese FX intervention...
-
New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?
To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the foreseeable future.
-
Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis
To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focused macro investor.
-
How To Trade Macro In A War
Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.
-
Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock
Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environment,
-
The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the bond market. The repercussions on the USD and on the incentive schemes for...
-
US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the TACO is here, the real question is: will this episode encourage global pension...
-
Japanese Macro Tails
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? How do you trade these policymaker-induced setups? And in the long-run, will the...
-
The Everything SuperCycle?
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The duo also talks about the reaction function of the Fed,...
-
More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip?
The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in and buy the dip.
-
''Run It Hot'': The Comeback?
Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade. How to best approach markets going forward? Want to reach out to Alf or Brent? Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg chat, or...
-
We Have A Deal: Now What?
Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next? The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI trade, and the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs starting next week.
-
Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets?
Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various speculative stock market sectors: what should we expect now? The duo also...
-
Gold & Cockroaches
Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what's behind it? Is it a broad debasement theme or just a big momentum trade? And is Dimon right...
-
Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?
Alf and Brent discuss the massive AI-driven rally which is beginning to have strong implications for broader markets and the economy. Brent presents the consensus view from several hedge fund PMs he met in Singapore - are they riding the bubble or afraid it's going to burst soon? And what about...
-
Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?
Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return distributions.
-
The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance
Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situation in France.
-
Run It Hot Hot Hot
Alf and Brent discuss the surprising Jackson Hole speech in which Powell opened up to interest rate cuts already in September. Markets are reacting strongly, but the real question is what should we expect if Trump runs the economy hot alongside a dovish Fed in 2026?
-
Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?
Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.
-
The Tariff Mismatch Theory
Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?
-
Carry & Options In A Trump World
Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves and incorporate carry into your thinking.
-
Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets?
Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us?
-
Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish?
Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/
-
Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?
Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give...
-
Recession Risks & Reflexivity
Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to...
-
Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!
This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change...
-
The Bond Vigilantes Are Here
Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US. Transcript:...
-
You Ready For Liberation Day?
Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades. Transcript:...
-
Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge
Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.
-
Growth Scare: Yes or No?
Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?
-
The Next Big Macro Trade
Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/
-
How To Trade Tariff Day
In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities. Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript:...
-
The UK Bond Market Is Imploding
Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets. Transcript:...
-
The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?
Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts? Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/
-
The US Dilemma in 2025
Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo...
-
Trading Trump 2.0
Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative? Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6 Brent's Daily...
-
Trump's Secret Agenda
In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we...
-
The Bond Market Is On Fire
Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and...
-
Financial Repression Is Here To Stay
Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who…
more -
What If The Fed Made a Mistake?
Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also...
We're indexing this podcast's transcripts for the first time — this can take a minute or two. We'll show results as soon as they're ready.
No matches for "" in this podcast's transcripts.
No topics indexed yet for this podcast.
Loading reviews...
ABOUT THIS SHOW
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
HOSTED BY
Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
CATEGORIES
Loading similar podcasts...
Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does The Macro Trading Floor have?
The Macro Trading Floor currently has 141 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The Macro Trading Floor about?
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
How often does The Macro Trading Floor release new episodes?
The Macro Trading Floor publishes regularly with 141 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
Where can I listen to The Macro Trading Floor?
You can listen to The Macro Trading Floor on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts The Macro Trading Floor?
The Macro Trading Floor is created and hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly.
URL copied to clipboard!