PODCAST · business
The Market
by Etherfuse
The Market by Etherfuse provides subscribers with strategic insights into the global bond market, focusing on empowering individuals with insight into what is going on in the world of bonds, in a digestible format. etherfuse.substack.com
Episodes
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Dollar Strength or "Other" Weakness?
After a horrible year to date performance, the US dollar bounced off its low, with a weekly return of +.83% and a monthly return of +2.25% as of October 14, 2025 Is this the inflection point, the start of a rally? This is an important question for crypto investors because USDC and USDT dominate…
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Pros and Cons of Euro Stable.
A battle is brewing in stable currency. The US is winning with USDC and USDT, and China is gaining ground, making a push for the title. Hard to say who is going to win the stable game, but someone will. To show how active this game is, Europe is talking about getting involved; the European…
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"Total Return", All That Matters.
The dollar has declined year-to-date by over 9%, and some predict it will decline more. Dollar weakness, and the potential for more weakness, is knocking the dollar off its perch as the global safe-haven investment, the investment investors want to hold when global risk is rising. Many investors...
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In Stablecoins, Don't Bet Against China.
Passage of the Genius Act in the US stirred up a lot of excitement towards stablecoins. The IPO of Circle added fuel to the fire, making US dollar stablecoins a household word. Such recognition and regulation have helped the stablecoin market to double in terms of market capitalization to around...
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Will The Dollar Get The Yips?
There have been some strange developments this week in interest rates and currencies. First, the European union reported inflation above target, leading to the conclusion that interest rates will not be cut in the near term, rather stay where they are. Normally, one would expect the Euro to...
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When Interest Rates Bail the Government Out.
If a normal person owed a lot of money and interest was choking their household budget, they would love to go push for a lower rate, to refinance at much better terms. If market rates were high, there would be no chance of refinancing and lightening their interest payments as a percentage of…
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US Dollar, Start Moving to the Exit Door?
Sometimes at a sports event or concert it is a good idea to start moving for the exit before the end of the event, to get your car out before the rush. The same may be said for US dollar exposure, it may be a good idea to start moving slowly towards the exit. Treasury secretary Bessent said in a...
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Brazil's Inflation, New and Improved
For many years Brazil has had a bad reputation among international investors regarding inflation. It has always been high versus the rest of the world, and in the last ten years there was one-point when annual inflation was consistently 11 percent or more. There was a time in the last 30 years…
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Cockroaches And US Treasuries
If you see a cockroach in your kitchen or bathroom, you can be sure there are more hiding. There is never just one. People may try to convince themselves there is only one, but there never is. We can say the same thing about demand for US treasury bonds at last week’s ten-year auction. The result...
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Will Demand for US Treasuries Fade?
It is possible that the US Fed will lower interest rates in September and follow through with more cuts in later months. The US government will benefit from these moves, because lower rates will help feed the voracious appetite for debt. But just because the discount rate, the rate that applies…
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Yield Pick-up Trades and the US Fed
Since the beginning of 2025, it has been a great time to invest in foreign currency sovereign bonds on a total return basis. In this time period, the US dollar has declined a little under 9% and many foreign interest rates have been higher than US dollar rates. However, if the US dollar were to...
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Brazil Tariffs A Big "Nothing Burger"
Well, President Trump followed through on his highly emotional threat and raised tariffs on Brazil to 50%. He did this citing “an unusual and extraordinary threat” . This extraordinary threat is the domestic trial of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, an issue that is purely a Brazilian matter, no...
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Has the US Dollar Inflected Upwards?
A weak US dollar in the first six months of 2025 has been a boon for foreign currency denominated assets. By the end of June, the US dollar had gone down about 9% (as measured by DXY), and yields on many foreign bonds stayed high. Investors avoiding exposure to the US dollar did well. But, as of...
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Brazil and Taco Grande part 2
Well, Brazil responded to President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs, if they do not stop the “Witch Hunt” against Jair Bolsonaro, the ex-President who allegedly initiated a coup against the present government. Both the President and the Supreme Court pushed back. The Supreme Court’s opinion was...
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Brazil and A "Taco Grande"
Sometimes things come along that are too good to be true. Presently, Brazilian tokenized Tesouros for investing in and lending on chain may be one of those opportunities. When US tariffs were announced in April, the Brazilian currency, the real, weakened to its 2025 lowest value versus the US...
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US Dollar Stablecoin is Too Big!
90% of all stable coins being US dollar denominated is scary; 90% is too much concentration in any asset class. It is not safe or efficient. Remember, a high concentration of US dollar stable coins is a risk to both the actual stable coin and the US treasury market that backs it; if there were a...
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Stable, The US Dollar, and Reserve Status
Let’s get to the point: does the world want to perpetually depend on a reserve currency backed by bonds issued by a government that has chaotic policy, a debt level rising too well over GDP, a commercial system that needs tariffs to compete worldwide, a 30 year long bond that is losing its…
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Potential Consequences of the Genius Act
The Genius Act passed the Senate and got a lot of people clapping hands and “high fiving”. Yes, this is a great piece of legislation for crypto and the future of finance. But some of the comments are off the mark, a bit concerning, Secretary Bessent was ecstatic that there will be more demand for...
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The US Government Could “Own” Part of The Next Crypto Crisis.
Complacency causes problems. Not paying attention to warning signs when they are right in front of you can lead to bad outcomes. Regarding stablecoins, one might conclude that this message has been heard, as the US Senate just passed the Genius Act, a policy that provides a regulatory framework…
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President Trump Got it Right.
There have been policy false starts in President Trump’s short time in office, and some of his policies seem a bit crazy. But when it comes to savings, he got it right. The Trump Account that gives every newborn American a $1000 investment in a tax advantaged index fund, not to be touched before...
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Europe, An Open-Air Museum?
In the early 1990s a well-known global investment strategist, a real smart guy, predicted that “Years from now Europe will be one big open-air museum”. He based his assertion on the idea that Europe was too bureaucratic and stuck in their ways. There was no innovation. There were limited reasons...
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Well Done, Mexico, Keep It Up.
It has taken years for Mexico to reduce its percentage of US dollar debt to total debt. US dollar debt as a percentage of total debt is 40-45%, lower than in times past. This is a great success, and Mexico should not stop now. In the past 30 years, emerging markets have experienced multiple…
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Dollar Decline or Devaluation?
President Trump’s tariffs have three goals: 1) create an economic situation that encourages investment in US production, allowing for the substitution of imports 2) encourage foreign companies to invest in the US 3) generate tax revenue. The first two have the goal of reducing the US trade…
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The US and Moody's Blues
If you buy a house and find out that the foundation needs massive work, or that the roof needs to be replaced, work that is more than a do-it-yourself job, the cost is on you. There is no point in complaining about the seller. It is your problem, and you had better find a way to get the repairs...
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Where to from the Dollar?
The argument to diversify out of US dollar stable coin lives on and must be repeated. 99% of anything in an asset class is too much and dangerous. Given this unhealthy concentration, it is time to start thinking about moving away from dollars, or anything backed by dollars, like US dollar stable...
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Time To Leave the Party?
The US dollar recorded its second consecutive week of gain for the week ending May 2nd. Is this the start of a trend, or time to leave the party, reduce dollar exposure? To fix the balance of trade between the US and the world, tariffs are the tool of the day. But tariffs are not the only tool…
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Saving, The Other Consumption.
Savers are “consumers” that give up present consumption for future consumption. Here, the key word here is consumption. Therefore, savings must be looked at through the lens of a consumer product as opposed to an investment product. To do this correctly, savings products must be developed that…
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Crypto, Greater Fools, and Pyrrhic Victories.
Crypto seems to be winning its war of acceptance. But is it a pyrrhic victory, a victory that brings harm to the victor, a harm that differs little from defeat? In times past highly regarded bankers and investors have called crypto a Ponzi scheme, a scam. Banks have threatened their employes with...
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Not In Kansas Anymore
Kansas was a safe place for Dorothy, but a twister turned her life upside down. A twister dropped her into Oz, a land full of threats, forcing her to set upon a treacherous path to get home again, besieged by witches, talking trees, and poppies. Metaphorically, US Bonds and the US dollar have…
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It's Policy, Stupid
James Carville in 1992 said “The Economy, stupid”. Substitute the word “policy” for “Economy” and you might sum up the present situation in the United States. Inconsistent policy has many people concerned about the US dollar and the US fiscal position. Oak Tree co-Chairman Howard Marks, a great...
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Peso Pride
Given the price movements of the Mexican peso in the last month, you must respect Mexico and its currency. On the back of US tariffs, the Mexican peso should be getting slaughtered. Mexico’s exposure to the US supply chain for industries like autos puts it right in the cross hairs of tariffs, no...
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Savings Bonds and Christmas Clubs
If a country wants to grow in greatness, it must increase its rate of personal savings. To do this, countries need to create products that allow savings habits to be developed across the whole income range of the population. The masses must have a means to save large, small, and micro amounts. At...
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Dollar Decline, Part 2 What Can You Do?
The last post suggested weakness in the US dollar was forthcoming. Factors noted were: · Excessive borrowing by the US government. · The risk of losing Federal Reserve Independence. · A forced restructuring of US bonds held by foreigners, also known as the possible Mara Lago Accord. · Rumors of a...
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Core and Explore
“Core and explore” is an investment strategy involving one stable yield bearing asset, or assets, and a growthier asset class. In a “core and explore” strategy you get paid in yield while your “growth” or “explore” asset goes after capital appreciation. In short, the “core” asset is your base and...
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Does Bullying Make Sense?
The US economy strives to become more competitive internationally in trade and investment. There are two ways to achieve this goal; apply tariffs, raising the cost of imported goods to encourage more US manufacturing and exports. Or, devalue the US dollar, so US goods cost less in overseas…
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Europe Unites Around Defense Spending!
The European Union is united as it has ever been since the US hinted at cutting them loose from defense support. Thus it is clear that Europe is re-arming, and spending will be in the trillions of Euros. The European economy has been struggling, and defense spending will help revive it. At the…
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Go Short The Mexican Peso?
Selling a currency short, or any security for that matter, can be a good strategy to enhance investment returns. You go short, the security goes down, you make money. Companies like Etherfuse offer this product in currencies and bonds to a wide range of investors. Given US tariffs and all the...
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US Dollar Beware
The US dollar has weakened by about 6% versus the Brazilian Real year-to-date. Against the Mexican peso, the US dollar is down 2%. Against the Euro, and UK pound it is unchanged. Finally, the US dollar index DXY, the value of the US dollar versus a range of currencies, is down 3%. The US dollar…
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Euro/US Dollar Parity No More?
When President Trump won the US election, the euro fell, and it looked like it was heading to 1 to 1 or parity with the US dollar. Tariff fears were hammering economic sentiment. Political uncertainty was present; France was in the middle of political crisis and Germany was heading to a…
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UK Bonds-A Hot Game, For Now.
The latest UK government ten-year bond sales saw the highest demand from investors ever, beating the previous month, which was the previous highest demand ever. This demand has created volatility in bond yields. The UK ten year recently spiked to 5% and then went back to 4.5% on strong demand. UK...
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Thirty Days & Counting
President Trump gave Mexico a reprieve from tariffs for thirty days at the beginning of February. This reprieve does not mean tariffs won’t happen. With all the inconsistencies and mixed messages coming out of Washington DC, it is hard to conclude anything. So who or what can best assesses…
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Rising Uncertainties & Your Portfolio
Gold and cash-like instruments are safe-haven assets. Investors buy them when uncertainty and/or fear is rising. Given the price of gold climbing steadily to a record high of $2,860, one could say fear and/or uncertainty is rising. What could be driving fear and uncertainty, making gold and cash...
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30 Days & the Mexican Peso
That didn’t take long. One call with the President of Mexico and president Trump is reconsidering tariffs? Was it because president Sheinbaum really convinced him that they would make a dent in the fentanyl problem, and help with the immigration crusade? Was it just a bluff from president Trump…
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"Skate to Where the Puck is Going!"
Hockey great Wayne Gretzky had a saying “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been”. Right now, currencies are like a hockey puck travelling across the ice. No one knows where they are going, but we do know the direction. Down. US tariffs on Mexico and Canada set these…
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Tariffs and Mexico
Well, it happened, tariffs on Mexico and Canada were announced by the United States. While there is some uncertainty as to what will be tariffed, like Canadian oil, tariffs were announced, and currencies reacted as expected. The Mexican currency went down about 1. 67% after the announcement and…
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Investor Confidence Or Concern?
According to Bloomberg, JPM Morgan Chase’s latest client survey shows the biggest net long position in US government debt in almost 15 years. Is confidence driving exposure to US government debt to a 15 year high? Or is it worry? If rates are cut, yields across the maturity horizon from 1 to 30...
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Economic Fundamentals Trump Tariffs
Too much attention towards Mexico has focused on the potential of US tariffs. Tariffs, which by the way, have not yet happened. For most of 2024, investors paid little attention to Mexico’s economic fundamentals Now, attention is being paid to fundamentals. This claim is supported by recent…
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US Food and Energy Prices Matter
When investing in government bonds, both long-term and short-term, interest rates and inflation are key. Declining inflation leads to lower interest rates, making long-term bonds a good investment. Uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates, supports investing short-term bonds. The…
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Mexican Data and Beyond
Knowing how to interpret data is something we should continuously work on. But, to some, data is scary. We don’t always know what we should be looking for, and how. But there are two ways of looking at data anyone can use. First, how was the data versus expectations? Second, is the direction of…
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Complacency
Less than one week ago potential US tariffs, higher market rates than official rates in the US market (mortgages), and weak currencies, in both emerging and developed markets were investor concerns, bordering on fear. Now, after a few positive data releases, investors seem to be more comfortable...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
The Market by Etherfuse provides subscribers with strategic insights into the global bond market, focusing on empowering individuals with insight into what is going on in the world of bonds, in a digestible format.
etherfuse.substack.com
HOSTED BY
Etherfuse
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How many episodes does The Market have?
The Market currently has 62 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The Market about?
The Market by Etherfuse provides subscribers with strategic insights into the global bond market, focusing on empowering individuals with insight into what is going on in the world of bonds, in a digestible format. etherfuse.substack.com
How often does The Market release new episodes?
The Market has 62 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
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The Market is created and hosted by Etherfuse.
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