The Poly Brief
by David Meir-Levy
Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by repo
Episodes
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Nov 8: Eisenkot gets the mandate the market said he wouldn't, and New Zealand's fewer-votes favorite
Eleven days ago, Polymarket gave Netanyahu a 67.5% chance to get the first mandate to form Israel's next government. This evening, President Herzog hands it to Gadi Eisenkot, after 67 members of the Knesset recommended him. The market for Israel's next prime minister now has Eisenkot at 68%, a...
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Nov 6: The AI selloff hits Anthropic's IPO, and the Fed hike in the same hour
On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, its worst day since April 2025, as the Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of pauses in data center construction. Within the same hour, two markets that have nothing to do with each other fell together. Anthropic listing by the end of the year: 66%, down from…
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Nov 5: Mississippi's 1,138 votes, Alaska's math, and Iran's new clock
Yesterday Scott Colom led Mississippi's Senate race by 43 votes and the market gave him 80%. By Wednesday evening the lead was 1,138, and the market says 96. Why traders are so sure in a state with no recount law at all, what's still out (3,600 mail ballots, an unknown pile of affidavits), and…
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Nov 4: The wave, a 43-vote Senate race, and Israel's first mandate
The morning after the midterms. Democrats won the Senate and the House, and we open the board on every call we made: the Senate at 64.5% two weeks ago, Kansas, Maine, Texas. And two misses, both in the same direction: Iowa, where the market had the Republican at 58%, and the Texas governor's…
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Nov 3: A strike on Qeshm, three hours of silence. And Election Day
Overnight, the US struck targets on Iran's Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported explosions just after midnight local time, and the market barely moved. More than three hours later, a report said the US did it, and in five minutes the bet that the pause holds through…
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Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms
Israel's prime minister market flipped again. Gadi Eisenkot is at 43.5%, up nine points in a day, with Benjamin Netanyahu down to 35.5. On Sunday evening Eisenkot touched 50%, around the time Bennett's party said it will recommend him, on about $25,000 of trading. Then Ynet reported Avigdor...
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Nov 1: Two days to the midterms. A $134,000 bet before sunrise in Nebraska, and Kansas flips
Two days before the US midterms, the market gives Democrats 72.5% to win the Senate, up six points in a week, and 94.5% for the House. Why: a generic ballot around D+8, Trump's approval near 37%, and a record early vote. Then Nebraska, from Polymarket's homepage: Pete Ricketts jumped five points…
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Oct 30: Apple's crown, decided by tonight's close. And Israel's count is done, but the math isn't
At Thursday's closing bell, NVIDIA was still the world's most valuable company, about $67 billion ahead of Apple. By that evening, the market gave Apple 65% to be number one at the end of October, up from about 6% on Wednesday. October 31 is a Saturday, so today's close decides. Why the market...
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Oct 29: The count moved against Netanyahu. The market moved against Eisenkot. And two rate calls we got right
With almost 90% of the votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc fell from 57 seats to 53, and the Arab parties hit a record 19. And yet the market moved the other way: Gadi Eisenkot dropped from 36.7% to 25% to be Israel's next prime minister, while Netanyahu holds at 45.5%. Why: the only route to 61 for...
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Oct 28: Israel flips overnight, Likud from 28.5% to 99%. And two central banks decide today
Yesterday morning the market gave Gadi Eisenkot's party 71.5% to finish first in Israel's election. This morning Likud is at 99.2%. All three exit polls put Likud on top, and with about 37% of the votes counted, Likud has 28 seats to Eisenkot's 21, and Netanyahu's bloc is at 57. Who called it…
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Oct 27: Israel votes with Eisenkot at 57%, moved by one trader at dawn. And Anthropic files to go public
Israel votes today, and the market gives Gadi Eisenkot 57% to be the next prime minister, up four points overnight. Netanyahu is at 26.5%, and Naftali Bennett fell from 12.5% to 5.5%. We looked at the actual trades: the dawn jump for Eisenkot was one account spending about $4,900 in five minutes,...
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Oct 26: One in five happened twice. Lula and Serbia's students beat the market, and Israel votes tomorrow with Eisenkot at 53%
Who called it? Not the market. Polymarket had Flávio Bolsonaro at about 80% in Brazil and Aleksandar Vučić's list at 71.5% in Serbia. Lula won by three and a half points, the first runoff comeback in Brazil's history, and Serbia's student list won a majority as turnout hit its highest level in...
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Oct 25: Election Sunday. Brazil's runoff is a coin flip in the polls and 80% on the market, and Serbia votes after two years of student protests
Brazil votes in its presidential runoff today. Every final poll has Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by one or two points of valid votes, inside the margin of error. The market gives Flávio almost 80%. Why traders are so much more confident than the pollsters: the first round, a poll miss,...
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Oct 23: Drones over the Black Sea, the NATO-Russia clash market jumps ten points, and the Senate market wakes up
Seven cargo ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in two weeks, about thirty sailors dead or missing, and Romania's top defence council meeting on Thursday evening. In the hours before it met, the market on a NATO-Russia military clash by October 31 jumped from 8.5% to 18.5%. Why traders are…
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Oct 22: Putin says 'around November tenth', the talks market jumps 30 points, and the NBA champions are priced fifth
After a three hour meeting with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, the Kremlin said Putin is ready "in principle" to resume three way talks with Ukraine and the US around November 10. Within three hours, the market on Russia and Ukraine meeting by the end of the year jumped from 44.5% to 73.5%, and it's…
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Oct 21: Thirteen days out, the Senate market won't budge, and GTA VI's trailer is losing a race against a view counter
Thirteen days before the US midterms, the market gives Democrats a 64.5% chance of taking the Senate. Two weeks ago it gave them a 63.5% chance of sweeping Congress, and that number hasn't moved since. Where the path runs (North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Maine), why traders like it, and why...
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Oct 20: Canada's rate hike goes from 15% to 73% in a day, and a three-hour scare on Iran
On Monday morning, the market gave a Bank of Canada rate hike next week about a 15% chance. By the evening it was 70, and this morning it's 73.5. A hawkish weekend from Governor Tiff Macklem, a soft inflation number that barely mattered, and a survey showing Canadians expect a lot more inflation....
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Oct 19: Trump endorses Netanyahu and Eisenkot drops 8, and Brazil's first debate
Yesterday we told you the market gave Gadi Eisenkot 54% to be Israel's next prime minister. Then Donald Trump posted his "complete and total endorsement" of Benjamin Netanyahu, and within about two hours Eisenkot was at 48. This morning he's at 46, Netanyahu at 29.5. What Trump said, what Sunday...
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Oct 18: Eisenkot hits 54 as Israel calls it a tie, and the Fed hike fades
Nine days before Israel's election, the market gives Gadi Eisenkot 54% to be the next prime minister, a high for the month, up thirteen points in a week. Benjamin Netanyahu is at 27.5. The polls? Basically a tie between the blocs, and Netanyahu himself says "we're tied." So why the gap? The fine...
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Oct 16: Brazil's race tightens, and a Roadster beats a stopwatch nobody saw
Ten days before Brazil's runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro is still the favorite at 79%. But he was near 89% a few days ago, and three polls in three days put the race at about 51 to 49. What moved the market on Thursday, why traders still lean his way, and the two debates that could change it. Plus…
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Oct 15: One tenth of a percent moves the Fed, and Apple closes in on Nvidia
Core inflation came in one tenth of a point hotter than expected, and the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 28 jumped from about 20% to 48.5% in an hour. Then they faded back to 31.5. Why the hike looks delayed rather than cancelled: Polymarket gives a December hike 78.5%. Plus the race for the...
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Oct 14: Romania's Thursday ultimatum, and Anthropic's moving IPO date
Romania may finally get a prime minister: Polymarket gives Luca Niculescu an 87.5% chance, up 29 points in a day. Last week we had him at 43. The Social Democrats are reportedly ready to join his government, and President Nicușor Dan has reportedly told the parties: a majority by Thursday, or...
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Oct 13: Netanyahu slides, Bennett climbs, and the Fed's next move
Two weeks to Israel's election: Gadi Eisenkot is back to 47% on Polymarket after dipping to 41 on Sunday, Benjamin Netanyahu fell to 30.5%, down six points since Thursday, and Naftali Bennett climbed to 14%. A safety-net offer from the Joint List, a sentence about Netanyahu as a minister that...
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Oct 12: Le Pen slips, Philippe gets a TV bump, and the states that want to pause AI
France, six months out: Marine Le Pen is still the favorite on Polymarket, but she's down to 39% from almost 46 a week ago. Édouard Philippe jumped to 24.5% the night he presented his program on France 2. What moved it, what the polls say, and why a court in Paris is the real wild card. Plus a…
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Oct 11: The Nobel nobody priced, Eisenkot's slide, and Iran's strange calm
Who called it? Nobody. The Nobel Peace Prize went to Navi Pillay, a name that wasn't even on Polymarket's list of seventy. Then Israel, sixteen days before the vote: a month ago traders gave Gadi Eisenkot about 55%. Now it's 41%, and Netanyahu is at 34.5. What moved it, and why the Arab-party…
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Oct 9: The Nobel favorite nobody can explain, and Brazil's runoff
The Nobel Peace Prize is announced at noon Israel time, and one name just jumped from 5% to 19% on Polymarket overnight: Yulia Navalnaya. We looked for the news behind it and couldn't find any. What the experts' list says, why this market has been burned before, and what happened the last time a...
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Oct 8: The Democratic sweep trade, and the blockade that won't end
Twenty six days before the US midterms, traders give Democrats a 63.5% chance of winning both the House and the Senate. A month ago it was a coin flip. The polls, the forecasters and the approval numbers behind the move, and why the Senate map still makes this a lot harder than the House. Plus…
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Oct 7: Israel's race tightens, and the Nobel nobody can call
Three weeks before Israel votes, Gadi Eisenkot is the market's favorite to be the next prime minister at 48%. But Benjamin Netanyahu is up five points in a week, to 36.5%, and Naftali Bennett is fading. What the polls say, why the coalition math matters more than who finishes first, and why a...
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Oct 6: Romania picks a diplomat, and a mystery bet in France
Romania has gone five months without a full government. On Monday night President Nicușor Dan named a career diplomat, Luca Niculescu, as his fourth pick for prime minister, and the market jumped him from about 10% to 43% in a day. Why traders like him, and why the parliamentary math still looks...
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Oct 5: Brazil flips to Bolsonaro, and the Fed hike vanishes
A month ago the market had Lula as the favorite in Brazil. This morning it gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 82% chance. What happened in Sunday's first round, why the money moved so fast, and what could still flip it before the October 25 runoff. Plus: a week ago traders saw a Fed rate hike in October…
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About this show
Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by repo
Hosted by
David Meir-Levy