PODCAST · business
The Prediction Trade
by Luckbox Magazine
If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade!Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes.The Prediction Trade lives at the intersection of probability, prediction and profit. We take a stats- and facts-based approach to wagering and trading in the prediction markets.Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events.Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade.Brought to you by the editorial team behind the award-winning Luckbox magazine.
Episodes
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Midterm Forecasts: Can Bitecofer Best Her Last Bets? (#63)
Two years after her first appearance on The Prediction Trade, political strategist Rachel Bitecofer has returned to build on her previous appearance’s success. It’s a high bar. Last time, she correctly handicapped 10 contentious markets ahead of the 2020 election. On this appearance, Rachel takes…
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This Part-time (Profitable) Political Trader Shares His Midterm Bets (#62)
How do you make six figures trading in prediction markets? SXSW’s Brett Cannon knows, and in this episode of The Prediction Trade he shares the market bets he’s currently making on PredictIt. From Marco Rubio’s Senate race and Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking Senate votes to whether Donald Trump will...
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What’s Next for Stocks and Some Midterm Locks (#61)
In three compelling trade ideas—one lock, one longshot and one even-money bet—Garrett Baldwin covers student loan debt, Dr. Oz’s Pennsylvania Senate race and overall Senate control after the midterms. Plus, he calls upon his expertise as an economist to share his take on what’s going on in the...
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Balls, Strikes and Interest Rate Hikes (#60)
When he’s on the air for tastytrade, Jermal Chandler shares his insights about options, equity markets, interest rates and the economy. When he joins the crew on The Prediction Trade, his baseball-betting side comes out. Jermal predicts the 2022 World Series matchup, winners in all six MLB...
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Crypto Regulation and Education Legislation (#59)
Cryptocurrency regulation is a hot-button issue—one that Mike Frisch knows a lot about. He spent five years as a CFTC trial attorney and now specializes in cryptocurrency, digital assets and Web3 as partner of the Croke Fairchild Morgan and Beres law firm. Mike weighs in on the state of crypto...
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Crude Oil, Gross Domestic Product, and Rates (#58)
After an impressive first appearance, Victor Jones, host of tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, returns to The Prediction Trade with more markets to forecast. From mortgage rates to Fed interest rates, oil prices to gasoline prices, and the U.S. GDP, Victor makes calls in them all. Plus, he updates…
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Voting Blocs and October Shocks (#57)
Lloyd Green knows what makes or breaks elections. Formerly serving as opposition research counsel to the ‘88 George H.W. Bush campaign, the political columnist for The Guardian and The Daily Beast joins the team at The Prediction Trade to talk about the 2022 midterms and their respective…
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Crypto, Weed, GDP & the GOP (feat. Victor Jones) (#56)
Victor Jones is known for hosting tastytrade’s Jones and Friends, but he’s lending his markets and investing expertise to The Prediction Trade for this special episode. A longtime prediction market trader himself, Victor has strong opinions about a variety of topics, and he shares them all....
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The US Open & the 2024 Presidential Race (#55)
Politics and golf go hand-in-hand in this special episode of TPT. Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty, of BetOnline, shares his golf-betting expertise to handicap the PGA Tour’s U.S. Open. But golf isn’t Paul’s only specialty. As a political junkie, he also shares his bets for the 2024...
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Ether, Altcoins & Student Debt Bets (#54)
The crypto crash will eventually come to an end, says Iceberg Capital Group’s portfolio manager Jake Weinig. When it does, the big winners will be the coins that have innovative underlying technology. In this second installment of TPT’s crypto coverage, Jake shares which coins are in his hedge...
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Bitcoin, Biden & Oil (feat. Ryan Grace) (#53)
The crypto market crash has active investors wondering what lies ahead. Buy the dip? Will the dip keep dipping? Fortunately, tastytrade’s global head of digital assets Ryan Grace has no-holds-barred answers about bitcoin, ethereum, and more—and he tells all on this episode of TPT. Ryan also wades...
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Pro Energy Stock Picker: Tracy Shuchart (#52)
Market got you down? Pro energy trader Tracy Shuchart manages a nine-figure portfolio for a family office. In this special stock pickers episode, Shuchart reveals the eight energy stocks she owns today, her forecast for the price of oil and the reason behind her positive outlook for the energy...
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Derby Bets You Won’t Regret (#51)
You know you want to bet on the Kentucky Derby, and you’re in luck! Veteran horse racing analyst Molly Jo Rosen sorts out the field for you, including the horse to bet on to win it all. (Spoiler: It’s not Epicenter!) Molly Jo covers how to bet and which horses to avoid in this year’s Run for the...
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Trump, Midterms & Trafalgar (#50)
The Trafalgar Group’s founder and chief pollster, Robert Cahaly, returns to The Prediction Trade to walk through the 2022 midterms. Cahaly talks about his record—a winner prediction ratio of nearly 92%—and explains how his company approaches polling differently. He shares predictions for several...
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Sosnoff, Skepticism & Psaki (#49)
Tom Sosnoff is no stranger to financial markets, and on this episode of The Prediction Trade the founder and co-CEO of tastytrade shares his take on events-based prediction markets. Tom walks through a handful of markets on Kalshi and PredictIt, and he ties it all together with a surprise 2024...
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Palin, PredictIt & Political Wagering (#48)
The co-founder of the political prediction market site PredictIt, John Phillips, joins The Prediction Trade for an exclusive interview ahead of the 2022 midterm election season. Phillips shares what technological improvements PredictIt has made, what to watch out for on the midterm campaign…
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Biden, BA.2 & Baseball (#47)
Prediction market super-trader Scott Supak joins The Prediction Trade to offer a crash course on maximizing profits in PredictIt’s and Kalshi’s presidential approval rating markets, as well as his tactics for forecasting and trading the COVID-19 markets. The show wraps up with win total…
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Kanye, Kemp & Coach K (#46)
The Prediction Trade is placing bets on March Madness, the Georgia governor’s race, the 2024 presidential election and the Grammys in this jam-packed episode. Plus, economist Garrett Baldwin shares an essential tool for taking on Kalshi’s Fed interest rate markets, pointing out price…
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Purdue, Populism & The Power of the Dog (#45)
Season 3 of The Prediction Trade debuts with betting and trading opportunities in politics, sports and pop culture. Things kick off with handicapping the Brazilian general election, move to March Madness Final Four predictions and wrap up with a how-to for betting on this weekend’s Academy…
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Be a Better Weather Bettor (#44)
Want to be a wiser weather wagerer? TPT enlists Rick DiMaio, an expert meteorologist and meteorology professor, to walk through the weather markets on the Kalshi prediction market platform. Tools he shares: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ https://www.weather.gov/ https://www.accuweather.com/...
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Canadian Election Update (#43)
The Prediction Trade goes back to Canada with Toronto-based public affairs consultant, political commentator, writer and speaker Tasha Kheiriddin. After successfully forecasting that Canada would hold a national election in 2021, Tasha shares her calls for the number of Liberal and Conservative...
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Kalshi: Bet on Everything (#42)
There’s a new prediction game in town: Kalshi, the first federally regulated events exchange. Kalshi is now taking trades on whether it will rain in NYC, when Kanye West’s next album will drop, how many people will get vaccinated this week, and all sorts of other outcomes. Prediction market...
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How to Bet Tennis (and the French Open) (#41)
From Tennis Betting Tidbits to The Prediction Trade, Jon Reid reveals how he bets on tennis—and his bets speak for themselves. With more than 1,300 wagers in 2020, he netted nearly 80 units with average odds of +144. But today the Canadian tennis handicapper is on TPT to talk about this year’s...
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Talking Trash & Betting Mayweather-Paul (#40)
When there's a first-rate sporting event, you can count on TPT to bring you the most qualified experts to handicap the betting opportunities. But what about those other sporting events? In this episode, TPT calls on Hard Factor’s Wes Shephard to weigh in on the upcoming Mayweather-Paul boxing...
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Making Book, Motorsports Betting & Indy Picks (#39)
A veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker and expert motorsports handicapper takes TPT behind the bookmaking curtain to handicap the upcoming Coca-Cola 600 and the Indy 500. Micah Roberts takes on a range of subjects including Phil Mickelson’s big payoff, Billy Walters’ big bets, how to wager on motorsports,...
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KY Derby: Who to Bet & How to Bet (#38)
Two horse-racing veteran analysts handicap the 147th Kentucky Derby. Molly Jo Rosen is first out of the gate with a lesson on how to bet smart on big race days. Noel Michaels takes us around the turn with a look at this year’s strongest contenders. Then, both guests go head-to-head on the home...
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Kheiriddin: True Dough in Trudeau (#37)
“I am 100% certain!” That’s how confident National Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin is on this episode’s political wager. Kheiriddin dissects the Liberal Party of Canada’s recently revealed budget and discusses the likelihood of a Canadian election taking place in 2021, resulting in a...
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Scaramucci Forecasts Bitcoin Prices & NY Politics (#36)
Anthony Scaramucci returns to The Prediction Trade with a shocking prediction on the fate of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Scaramucci shares his 2021 bitcoin price forecast as well as his thoughts on NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, NY Attorney General Letitia James and Florida...
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Master Class on the Masters & Betting Belarus (#35)
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty makes his return to the TPT studio, this time to discuss more than just politics. The golf-betting pro gives a master class on betting on the Masters, including the five players who are the best bets to don the coveted green jacket. He also reveals his two...
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James Altucher: New York Comedy & Politics (#34)
Season 2 of The Prediction Trade kicks off with lifelong New Yorker James Altucher. James, an entrepreneur, investor, chess master, comedian, author and host of “The James Altucher Show” podcast, shares his contrarian analysis and best bets in the prediction markets for New York’s gubernatorial…
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The Prediction Trade Trailer
The Prediction Trade - coming soon! Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events....
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Harry Crane: Polls, Markets, Georgia, Cahaly & Silver (#33)
Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some...
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Jo Jorgensen: No “Shy” Libertarian (#32)
In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the…
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31 for 31: The Best of TPT & VP Debate Recap (#31)
Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as...
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Robert Cahaly: The Polls Are So Wrong, Here’s Why (#30)
Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing…
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Pro Punter Plots Barrett, Biden & Boris (#29)
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing RBG and the...
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The Insider’s Guide to Election Night Trading (#28)
Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for…
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Allan Lichtman: Batting a Thousand Since 1984* (#27)
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT...
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Blagojevich Trades: Battleground States & Clemency (#26)
Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all,...
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Rod Blagojevich: Prison, Populism & the Presidency (#25)
When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year...
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Mark Vargas: Breaking Blago & Presidential Pardons (#24)
Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in…
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David Rothschild: Predictions vs. Polling (#23)
David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part…
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240,000% Return!—He Turned $50 Into $120K (#22)
Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving...
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David Byler: WaPo Data Man Flips Red States Blue (#21)
Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the...
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Yeez, We Kanye—But, Will He? (#20)
This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking...
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Dylan Ratigan Trades: Thinking Outside the Lockbox (#19)
Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's...
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Dylan Ratigan: They’re All Greedy Bastards (#18)
Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and...
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Free Money—The Trader’s Guide to Negative Risk (#17)
Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market…
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Rachel Bitecofer: The Hottest Hand in Handicapping (#16)
In this special episode, we walk Rachel "the Doc" Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking...
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Making Bank on Trump’s Tweets (#15)
Against the backdrop of President Trump's Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt's notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade!Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes.The Prediction Trade lives at the intersection of probability, prediction and profit. We take a stats- and facts-based approach to wagering and trading in the prediction markets.Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events.Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade.Brought to you by the editorial team behind the award-winning Luckbox magazine.
HOSTED BY
Luckbox Magazine
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does The Prediction Trade have?
The Prediction Trade currently has 67 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The Prediction Trade about?
If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade!Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes.The Prediction Trade lives at the...
How often does The Prediction Trade release new episodes?
The Prediction Trade has 67 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to The Prediction Trade?
You can listen to The Prediction Trade on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts The Prediction Trade?
The Prediction Trade is created and hosted by Luckbox Magazine.
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