The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

Today we’re looking at a situation in northern Utah that has echoes of something very familiar to us in Colorado Springs.O’Leary Ventures is backing a massive hyperscale data center initiative in Box Elder County, Utah. The Stratos project area has been approved at the state level through MIDA, the Military Installation Development Authority, and the county commission has approved the interlocal agreement and consent resolution required for the project area to move forward.But now residents are organizing a referendum. They want to gather signatures, force the question onto a ballot, and potentially overturn the county commission’s action.So the question is simple. Can a local special election overturn something that has already been approved by multiple layers of government?-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today’s question comes from Steve who asks “Will multi-generational living and caring for aging parents reduce demand for housing by causing previously separate households to re-combine?”----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today’s show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven’t looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that’s worth paying attention to. If you’re interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you’ll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show.  https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/---------------Many in the mainstream media are speculating about the chances of the US economy entering a recession later this year. On today’s show, I am going to make the case that the US economy is already in recession and has been for some time. I’m going to further make the case that what is coming later this year is an even deeper recession.As you're listening to this, you might be thinking: Oh, come on Victor. The bureau of economic analysis is responsible for making the determination whether the economy is in recession or not. So far they have not produced any data to support your claim. I will be the first to acknowledge that fact. Listen on.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Patrick Francey is the CEO of the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN)., a Canada wide organization focused on educating real estate investors. On today's show we are talking about the Supreme Court ruling in British Columbia that has cast a cloud of uncertainty over property title. This is a major issue that is freezing property markets in major parts of Vancouver and threatens to spread across other jurisdictions. To connect with Patrick, visit https://reincanada.com/Patrick also hosts the Everyday Millionaire Podcast--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Cody Payne is based in Dallas Texas where he invests in small bay industrial on a nation-wide basis. On today's show we are talking about the demand drivers for small bay and the shortage of supply. To connect with Cody, visit https://flexbusinessparks.com/----------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

 https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/Today’s show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven’t looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that’s worth paying attention to. If you’re interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you’ll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show. --------------It is happening again. The headline employment report released today is much rosier than the reality. The news media reported on the headlines, and glossed over the details which reveal a deeper story of weakness in the economy. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today we’re talking about affordable housing, and more specifically, whether the most viable path to creating new affordable housing might not be new construction at all.There is a very common statement in the housing conversation, and it sounds something like this: We need more affordable housing, the implication being that therefore we need to build more affordable housing.That sounds logical on the surface. But when you examine the economics, the statement begins to fall apart.New construction today is expensive. Land is expensive. Labor is expensive. Materials are expensive. Insurance is expensive. Financing is expensive. Development charges, impact fees, utility connection fees, permitting delays, and code requirements all add cost before a single resident ever moves in.When you add all of that together, the finished product has to command a certain rent just to be financially viable. That rent is often far above what most people would consider affordable.This is the central contradiction in affordable housing policy. We ask developers to build affordable housing, but we impose a cost structure that requires market rents or government subsidy to make the project work.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On May 7, I'm hosting a webinar on Mind Blowing AI Use Cases. REGISTER HERE On today's show we are looking at the commodities shortages that are not getting headlines and the ripple effect through the global supply chain of a wide range of products. The impacts include aluminum, copper, plastics, adhesives, fertilizer, semiconductors, medical imaging to name just a few.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today we’re looking at the Houston multifamily market, and in particular, the pressure that is building in the middle of the market. We are talking about Houston specifically. But you can take the lessons from Houston and apply them to other markets in the US and probably elsewhere.When people talk about apartment fundamentals, they often speak in broad averages. Occupancy is up. Rent is down. Absorption is positive. Cap rates are stable. But averages can hide a lot of insights.The latest Q1 2026 multifamily report from Colliers shows Houston sitting at 90.4 percent occupancy. That number was unchanged from the prior quarter, and it was actually up from 88.6 percent a year earlier. On the surface, that sounds reasonably healthy.But when you look under the hood, the story becomes more nuanced.Houston delivered 6,469 new apartment units in the first quarter. That is a big number. At the same time, the market absorbed 3,578 units. So demand was positive, but it did not keep pace with new supply. That is the first warning sign.Now, supply and demand do not affect every property the same way. The Colliers data shows that Class A properties absorbed 3,246 units in the quarter. Class C properties absorbed 678 units. Even Class D had positive absorption of 413 units.But Class B properties recorded negative absorption of 759 units.That is the story.Class B is getting squeezed from both directions.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today’s show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven’t looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that’s worth paying attention to. If you’re interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you’ll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show.  https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/------------We’re talking about proposed changes to how inflation is calculated, and what that could mean under a new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.Now, before we get into the implications, let’s start with a simple premise. If you change how you measure something… you change the outcome. And if you change the outcome… you change the decisions that follow. That’s exactly what’s at stake here.The Fed pays attention to the Core Personal Consumptions Expenditures index (Core PCE). But both of these measures have… let’s call them limitations.They rely heavily on statistical adjustments. Hedonic adjustments. Substitution effects. Owner’s equivalent rent.These are not trivial details. These are structural assumptions baked into the data.For example, if steak becomes too expensive and consumers switch to chicken, the index assumes that substitution and dampens the measured inflation.But here’s the problem. From a lived experience standpoint, people don’t feel like inflation has gone down. They feel like their standard of living has declined.That disconnect between reported inflation and experienced inflation is one of the biggest credibility challenges facing central banks today.And that’s where someone like Kevin Warsh could represent a shift. If a Warsh-led Fed were to move toward a more “common sense” measure of inflation—less adjusted, less modeled, more observable—you could end up with systematically higher reported inflation.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

This talk was live at the Fairmont Chateau Laurier on the Missing Foundation in many communities. The acute shortage of workforce housing. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jerry Vinci is based in Salt Lake City where he provides services for due diligence of senior housing including independent living, assisted living, memory care and skilled nursing. To connect with Jerry, visit https://ccrgrowth.com/ or https://nordonadvisory.com/-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Our book this month is The Private Equity Playbook by Adam CoffeyAt first glance, this might look like a corporate finance book. Something meant for Wall Street dealmakers. But that would be the wrong conclusion.Because at its core, private equity is about something very familiar: buying assets, improving them, and exiting at a profit.That’s real estate.And what this book does exceptionally well is lay out the rules of that game—clearly, practically, and without a lot of academic theory.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

For the past several decades, the dominant playbook was globalization and specialization. Companies outsourced components to the lowest-cost producer, often halfway around the world. Supply chains became long, complex, and highly optimized for cost.On paper, it made perfect sense. If a supplier could produce a component cheaper and sell it to multiple competitors in the same industry, everyone benefited from economies of scale.But there was a hidden assumption baked into that model. The assumption was that supply chains would always function smoothly.And we now know that assumption was flawed.Over the past several years, we’ve seen disruptions from pandemics, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and transportation bottlenecks. What used to be considered low-probability events are now happening with uncomfortable frequency.Supply chains are no longer just an efficiency mechanism. They’ve become a source of risk.And when risk enters the equation, the optimal strategy changes.We’re now seeing companies rethink their dependence on third-party suppliers for critical components. In many cases, they’re bringing production back in-house. That’s vertical integration.Not across the board. Not for every component. But selectively, for the parts of the value chain that are mission-critical.That's changing demand for industrial real estate. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today’s show is sponsored by The Cost Segregation Guys. If you own investment real estate and haven’t looked seriously at cost segregation, you could be leaving significant tax savings on the table. The Cost Segregation Guys help investors accelerate depreciation, improve near-term cash flow, and make more efficient use of capital, all without changing the underlying asset. In a business where preserving cash matters, that’s worth paying attention to. If you’re interested in learning more, click on the link in the show notes and you’ll be able to connect with them directly, and qualify for a discount because you came from the show.  https://costsegregationguys.com/estateespressopodcast/-------------On December 10 of last year I published an episode of the podcast that summarized the rules for how the Federal Open Market committee elects their chair. The Federal Reserve Act requires the Fed Chair to be elected in the January meeting for the balance of the year. It has been customary for a Fed chair to resign their position as Fed chair and to relinquish their seat on the FOMC in order to create space for the incoming chair to take their seat on the committee. On December 10, I made it clear that the committee has followed the custom of electing a new chair in January, and then after the resignation of the chair, making way for the new Fed chair to take their seat. While unprecedented, the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell would not be required to resign and it would in fact require a change to the Federal Reserve act in the Congress and the Senate in order to force the Fed chair to resign. I put this forward as a distinct possibility. Well, as fate would have it, today Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that he would not be stepping down, and that he would only do so when he felt that conditions were right to protect the integrity of board as a whole. Powell is clearly signaling to the President the terms under which he gets to appoint his new Chair. This is a high stakes game of chess. It will continue to make headlines probably for days and weeks to come. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today, we’re going to talk about something that is not getting nearly the attention it deserves, and that is the economic impact of the war in the Persian Gulf. Sure there is lots being shared in the media. But I think the mainstream media are either dramatizing the war, or downplaying the economic impact. Markets, broadly speaking, are treating this as a contained geopolitical event. Maybe a temporary disruption. Something that will resolve itself in due course.I believe that view is fundamentally flawed.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s we are looking at the Year in Review. We are going to look at Six Themes That Defined Commercial Real Estate in 2025.2025 was not an easy year in commercial real estate, but it was an important one. It was a year that forced clarity. If there was one central theme that defined the global economy in 2025 it was the word uncertainty. This was artificially and intentionally created by the White House and it permeated virtually all aspects of the economy. Commercial real estate was similarly affected. From one day to the next we didn’t know if a sector of the economy was going to be impacted by tariffs. We didn’t know if critical materials that are needed for construction or maintenance would be available, and at what price? ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about inclusionary zoning. This is a new initiative in many communities aimed at creating affordable housing.  The actual goal of inclusionary zoning varies from one community to another. In some locations there is a narrative that single family detached homes create an economic divide and therefore widen racial segregation that is implicit with economically segregated neighbourhoods. You won’t find an affordable home in the middle of a neighborhood surrounded by luxury homes.  In other communities, the definition of inclusionary zoning is aimed at creating affordable housing by effectively taxing developers with burden of building a number of affordable units in exchange for the right to build a number of market rate homes. The theory is that by sprinkling affordable housing throughout the city as part of new development projects, you prevent the ghetto effect of lower income areas separated from the more affluent areas.  Inclusionary zoning programs vary widely in their implementation. In some cases, developers may also have the option  of  building  affordable units in other locations within a city, or they may be able to pay cash instead of developing affordable units. ---------- Host: Victor Menasce

On today’s show we are talking about industrial and what can happen when investors move en masse toward the same target. The folks at Marcus & Millichap issued a wave of mid year updates on the industrial sector for almost all of the major markets across the US.  The thesis is that with the growth of e-commerce and with supply chain constraints during the pandemic and with geopolitical risk, there would be need for more warehousing in North America. We humans have a tendency to project current market conditions into the future. This is called recency bias and is not necessarily indicative of long term trends or needs.  A lot has been built and it’s not clear that the demand is there to absorb all of this new supply. It’s likely that the vacancy is migrating to some of the older product in the market. Asking rents are up in all markets. Asking rents are up 19% in Dallas, 31.9% in Charlotte, 5.6% in NYC and 12.3% in Austin. These rent increases are impressive, but remember these are asking rents. They are not backed by leases. I’m sounding a tiny alarm bell that this sector is showing signs of being overheated and I’m expecting a softening in the coming year. Investing in industrial right now could have elevated risk.  ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we are taking a look at a new law in the city of Los Angeles that has been recently amended called SB8.  This new rule states that no new development can take place that demolishes housing whether occupied or vacant unless replacement housing is constructed that maintains equivalent affordable and very affordable units and rents those units to low income households. What are the intended consequences, and what are the non-intended consequences of this new rule? ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today's show we're talking about the negotiating techniques for sellers who are looking to sell when few people are buying. George taught negotiation at the law school at New York University for over 20 years. His writings on negotiation are based on his course notes from those days. George has established himself as a world class authority in negotiation through his many decades in the practice. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Carina Guzman specializes in land development. On today's show we are talking about a 90 acre residential subdivision that is next to a ski resort. To learn more or to connect with Carina, you can find her on LinkedIn, or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/the_land_development_queen/ -------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

George Ross is a repeat guest on the show. On today's show George is offering his perspective on Donald's bid for President. He knows the man perhaps as well as anyone having worked with him for over 47 years.  ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today's question comes from Marc who asks: "I’m hearing from a few institutional investors that they’re not making any decisions for the next 90 days. Some of the investments they made in 2021 have run into difficulty and the investment committee is gun-shy about making any decisions about new projects in the current environment. Given this feedback, Would it be unethical for me to discuss the project with other investors at the present time? Should I wait another 90 days for things to stabilize before holding any any investor conversations? Somehow just losing 90 days doesn’t feel like a good plan. What are your thoughts?" ---------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Today's show is a replay of an extraordinary conversation with Hollywood icon Lisa Haisha. She's an actor, a producer, a coach, a real estate investor, an entrepreneur. There are so many powerful lessons in today's conversation that I felt it was worth sharing again. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Hi Victor, How does an investor or property owner identify the best use and development potential or highest long-term cash flow opportunity for a particular property? Last year, we purchased a 2 acre piece of land with over 400 feet of commercial road frontage in one of the fastest growing areas in the country. Comps in the area show anywhere from $8.00 per sq foot (for vacant parcels with less road frontage) and up to $30.00 per sq foot on outparcels for a nearby Publix grocery store currently under construction opening this Summer. Certainly not a primary or even secondary market… but perhaps tertiary since it’s outside of Mobile, AL in the path of growth! Nevertheless, the opportunities are vast and perhaps endless. In what direction should we look to best determine the land’s most lucrative use? --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

On today’s show we’re talking about uncertainty. We can all agree that not everything in life is predictable. Life is full of surprises, some of the pleasant, and some of them not. It’s been said that a confused mind doesn’t buy. That’s particularly true in the world of investing. Investors seek clarity. Things that are too complicated, have too many variables, or have large unknowns are off the table. Investors are a special breed. Professional investors are relying upon their money working for them. Professional investors truly attempt to quantify what their money will do. Investors hate uncertainty. Anywhere you see uncertainty, you see falling prices. Who would buy real estate in the Ukraine right now? Who would buy real estate today and take a variable interest rate loan? Anyone with a brain knows that interest rates are heading higher, but how much higher? -------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: [email protected]

Chris Miles is based in Salt Lake City, Utah when he manages a portfolio of income properties. On today's show we're talking about the merits of active versus passive investing.  You can connect with Chris at moneyripples.com  Chris is also the the host of the Chris Miles Money Show which can be found on most podcast platforms. 

We’ve been hearing for months how interest rates are going down and how the Federal Reserve is going to maintain rates at near zero levels until well into 2022. That all sounds like good news for real estate investors who are looking to borrow funds at the lowest possible interest rates. As we’re talked about before, the interest rate charged by the banks is often tied to one of two benchmark rates. Shorter term loans and variable rate loans are usually tied to a short term benchmark like LIBOR which is the London Interbank Overnight Rate. Permanent financing is usually tied to the yield on the 10 year US Treasury Bill. When the Congress enacted legislation back in March to protect the US economy that involved a massive amount of printing of money. The total in new spending was $2.3T dollars. Most of that money was issued in the form of Treasury Notes having a short term of one year or less. As those notes become due, they are being repriced as longer term debt which carries with it a less frequent need for renewal. Over the past 80 days, the yield on the 10 year treasury has gone from 0.52% to 0.79%. That increase in almost 1/3 of a percentage point translates into interest rates for permanent financing that are 1/3 of a percentage point higher. There are three scenarios to consider. 1) A Republican sweep of the White House and both chambers of government 2) A split of the chambers of Government. It may not actually matter as much who wins the White House. 3) A Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers of government. Let’s look at all three of these scenarios. According to the polls, a Trump victory in the White House is looking less likely. It’s highly unlikely that Republicans would win all three. Whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump is the next President, both will continue printing money. The big question is how much. The second scenario with a split between the House and the Senate will result in legislative gridlock. We’ve seen that in the past 7 months with no new money being pledged to recover from the pandemic. The level of acrimony between the parties has become the new normal in government. The third case, involving a Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers  of government has the potential to unleash an unprecedented level of spending. It’s that third scenario that has the markets worried. We are already seeing signs of inflation even though it’s being downplayed by politicians. Inflation is the hidden tax that most people can’t isolate. When a can of tomatoes at the grocery store goes up by $0.50 most people blame the grocery store for the price increase. They rarely put the blame on the Secretary of the Treasury, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, or their representative in Congress. When those trillions of dollars get printed, the debt goes somewhere. So far, the US has been able to export the debt over the past 30 years. China’s central bank and Saudi Arabia have been willing buyers of all that debt. But the willingness of those countries to fund US deficits seems to be evaporating. For now, we’re in the middle of a global pandemic. All economies are suffering. When asked the question about which currency to buy, there doesn’t seem to be a stronger currency emerging. The Euro is in bad shape, the Yen is hopelessly over-leveraged, and international investors are not about to put their trust in the Chinese Central government. As we get closer to the election, and even after the election whoever wins we can expect the yield for 10 year Treasuries to go up. You have a small window in which to lock in historically low interest rates. Even if the Fed keeps rates low, I believe Treasury yields will go up, and therefore interest rates for investors.

On today's show I'm speaking with special guest Russ Gray, co-host of The Real Estate Guys radio show. We're talking about the market cycle and how we prepare.