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The Week Ahead

SBM Intelligence's take on Nigeria and Africa brought to you every week.

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  1. 115

    Some things sell better unaudited

    Ghana’s gold exports rose 49% to $12.5 billion, with gold accounting for 99.9% of exports to South Africa. What is driving this growth, and what does Ghana’s reliance on gold mean for export diversification?Profits in Ghana’s banking sector fell to GH¢7.1 billion, raising questions about the financial pressures facing banks and their potential impact on the wider economy. What could be driving the decline in Ghana’s banking sector profits?Ivory Coast has begun liquidating its electoral commission, marking a significant change in the country’s electoral administration. What could this restructuring mean for the management of future elections and public confidence in the electoral process?Support the show

  2. 114

    Not on speaking terms

    Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has challenged the Nigerian government to account for the savings from fuel subsidy removal and explain how the funds are being used. What should the government do to ensure these savings benefit Nigerians?Nigeria has dropped to 56th in the world poverty ranking, highlighting the country's ongoing struggle with poverty and economic hardship. What urgent steps can the government take to reduce poverty and improve living conditions?Ghana’s fuel prices are expected to remain stable, providing some relief for consumers and businesses. How sustainable is this stability, and what could cause fuel prices to rise again?Support the show

  3. 113

    Drama always around the corner

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has warned that excessive pre-election spending could threaten Nigeria’s economic stability, urging greater fiscal discipline ahead of the 2027 elections. How can Nigeria control election-related spending?A fake agency coordinator has reportedly issued a letter falsely claiming to represent a government agency, raising concerns about impersonation and fake official communications.  How can agencies prevent such impersonation?Tanzania’s Vice President has resigned, raising questions about the reasons for the decision and its impact on the country’s political stability. What could this mean for Tanzania’s government?Support the show

  4. 112

    Chaos with better branding

    The US has lifted restrictions on Nigerian ports, potentially boosting trade, improving port operations and strengthening economic relations. How could this affect Nigeria’s international trade?Foreign investors are raising concerns about Nigeria’s capital gains tax, warning that higher or uncertain taxes could affect investment decisions. How can Nigeria attract investment while increasing tax revenue?Algeria is strengthening ties with the AES countries, potentially improving regional cooperation on security and economic issues. What could this mean for stability in the Sahel?Support the show

  5. 111

    Needing therapy

    The Nigerian Army has declared senior ISWAP leaders wanted as part of efforts to disrupt the group’s leadership and operations in the North-East. Can targeting ISWAP’s leadership significantly weaken the insurgency?Clashes in Kebbi State have killed 29 people, including 10 policemen, highlighting the continuing security challenges facing northern Nigeria and the pressure on security agencies. What does the high number of casualties say about Nigeria’s security preparedness?The DRC’s release of prisoners to the AFC-M23 movement could influence ongoing efforts to address the conflict in eastern Congo, but may also strengthen the armed group. Will the prisoner release contribute to peace or give M23 greater capacity to continue fighting?Support the show

  6. 110

    On the line

    Nigeria's Presidency and Catholic Bishops in the country have exchanged heated public statements over the state of the country. Does constructive criticism from religious leaders help strengthen governance, or does it unnecessarily politicise national issues?President Bola Tinubu has approved a salary increase of between 30% and 80% for members of the Nigerian Armed Forces. Will a salary increase alone significantly improve the effectiveness of Nigeria's military, or are broader reforms also needed?Mali's former Prime Minister has been released after a year in detention. Could the release of Mali's former Prime Minister help ease political tensions, or is more needed to restore stability?Support the show

  7. 109

    Providence

    Chad has announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, arguing that the court has unfairly targeted African countries. What could Chad's exit from the ICC mean for the fight against impunity and human rights abuses in Africa?Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has launched Kiiraay, a new party merging 437 groups to consolidate his political base. Can one roof truly hold them all? President Bola Tinubu declined to receive a visiting South African delegation. How could tensions between Nigeria and South Africa affect regional cooperation and economic ties?Support the show

  8. 108

    Compass point

    The US House of Representatives passed a measure to stop aid to Nigeria, a move that could shape future cooperation between both countries. How could changes in US aid affect Nigeria's development and bilateral relations with the United States?Nigeria has brought back 1,490 citizens from South Africa, while the House of Representatives is investigating the losses suffered by Nigerians during attacks in the country. The stories highlight ongoing concerns about the safety of Nigerians living abroad. How can Nigeria and South Africa better protect Nigerians from future attacks?Chinese company, Zijin Mining, has started exporting lithium from Congo Kinshasa, marking another step in Africa's growing role in the global supply of critical minerals. How can the DRC ensure its lithium wealth delivers long-term economic benefits for its people?Support the show

  9. 107

    The only thing not rising

    Nigeria's crude oil production has reached a six-year high, exceeding its OPEC quota and signalling a recovery in the oil sector. At the same time, Dangote Refinery has started pricing fuel in U.S. dollars for bulk buyers.  Does rising oil production outweigh the economic risks of dollar-priced fuel?Nigeria raised ₦5.08 trillion through bond sales to finance government spending and infrastructure, reflecting strong investor confidence but also raising concerns about the country's growing debt. Should Nigeria rely more on borrowing or on increasing government revenue to fund development?Ghana recorded 24,778 fraud cases, highlighting growing concerns over financial crime. What should Ghana prioritise: strengthening financial security or boosting economic growth?Support the show

  10. 106

    Traffic

    Nigeria Customs' revenue rose by 28.85%, while the NNPC's revenue fell by 13%. What do these contrasting performances mean for Nigeria's economy?Meanwhile, Nigeria has opened a new lithium processing plant to add value to its mineral resources and support industrialisation. How can Nigeria maximise the benefits of its critical minerals? Is there a geopolitical angle to this?Finally, Moroccan authorities said they disrupted a suspected Islamic State-linked terrorist plot, highlighting ongoing security threats in the Sahel. What more should African countries do to tackle terrorism across the region?Support the show

  11. 105

    The water level

    Credit to Nigeria's government has increased sharply as the country seeks a new Eurobond. Will increased borrowing strengthen Nigeria's economy or deepen its debt challenges?The Dangote Refinery has attracted nearly $2 billion through its IPO and secured additional crude supplies from the UAE. Will these developments cement Dangote Refinery's position as a key player in Africa's energy sector?Deadly floods in the Ivory Coast have killed 20 people and are threatening the country's cocoa mid-crop. What steps should African governments take to protect communities and key industries from climate-related disasters?Support the show

  12. 104

    Reforming, expanding and dealing

    More African countries are using the Chinese yuan for trade with China, deepening China's economic influence on the continent. Should Africa rely less on the US dollar?Ivory Coast has announced a new oil discovery that could boost its economy, attract investment, and create jobs. Can oil wealth truly benefit ordinary citizens?Nigeria's Senate has voted for state policing following a Bill sent by President Bola Tinubu. Will state-controlled police will improve security or be politically abused in the country?Support the show

  13. 103

    Living on a prayer

    Benin’s new President, Romuald Wadagni, has commenced a subregional tour to strengthen diplomatic relations, promote economic cooperation, and address regional security challenges. What should be his top priority during this tour?Nigeria has intensified its fight against terrorism, securing 150 terrorism-related convictions and sentencing four people to death for their role in the 2022 Owo church attack. What additional measures should Nigeria adopt to prevent terrorism and strengthen national security?Meanwhile, an Army officer was killed during a rescue mission involving students in Oyo State, underscoring the risks security personnel face while safeguarding civilians. What more can be done to enhance the safety of security personnel during rescue operations?Support the show

  14. 102

    VST Wave 1: How Nigeria may vote

    This week, we focus on SBM Intelligence's latest report, Nigeria 2027: How the Country May Vote – Voter Sentiment Tracker, Wave 1 Analysis.The report provides an early snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of the 2027 elections, revealing widespread dissatisfaction with the country's direction, strong support for political change, and significant regional differences in voter preferences. It highlights the importance of voter turnout, identifies the South-West as a key battleground region, and shows that economic hardship and insecurity remain the issues that matter most to Nigerians.The report also raises concerns about the growing influence of social media, misinformation, and AI-generated content on the electoral process.Support the show

  15. 101

    Steering without a wheel

    Teachers across Nigeria are protesting rising school kidnappings, demanding stronger protection for students and staff as insecurity continues to disrupt learning. Will measures put in place by the government be enough to make schools safe again? Nigeria’s private sector has warned against further compulsory wage increases, saying many businesses are already struggling with high costs despite the ₦70,000 minimum wage. Should wages go up faster to match living costs, or should businesses be protected from added pressure? The U.S. plans to reduce the number of embassies and consulates in Africa that process visa applications from nearly 50 to just 20 regional hubs as part of a broader immigration policy shift. Will this policy make U.S. visa processing more efficient, or create new barriers for Africans seeking travel, study, and business opportunities in the United States? Support the show

  16. 100

    Everyone is running for something

    Last Friday, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye fired Ousmanne Sonko, the Prime Minister and longtime ally. Despite the dismissal, Sonko remains influential after being elected speaker of parliament. Could this political split affect Senegal’s stability and democratic progress?Nigeria's drug enforcement agency seized a $363 million meth lab hidden in a forest in Ogun State, marking one of Nigeria’s biggest drug busts. Could this operation weaken drug trafficking networks in the country?The NNPC has accused Dangote Refinery of attempting to create a monopoly in Nigeria’s fuel sector amid ongoing tensions over fuel supply and pricing. Could this dispute affect competition and fuel prices in Nigeria?Support the show

  17. 99

    A bust alternator

    The World Health Organization has declared that an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is under control. However, Rwanda has tightened border measures as a precaution. How should countries balance health security with trade and movement during outbreak responses?Cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire are protesting over payments, while a farmers’ group is also demanding an audit of the country’s cocoa regulatory council over concerns about transparency. What steps should be taken to ensure fair pricing and accountability in the cocoa industry?INEC has closed the window for political defections, while Oyo state Governor Seyi Makinde has declared his presidential ambition, adding to the growing list of strong contenders ahead of the next election cycle. What political outcomes should Nigerians expect from this increasingly competitive race?Support the show

  18. 98

    That’s a lot of appetite

    With critics accusing the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi of being a French operation, could the summit mark a turning point in how Africa positions itself in the global economy and unlock stronger partnerships for sustainable growth?Nigeria’s stock market has surpassed ₦160 trillion in value. What is driving this renewed momentum in Nigeria’s stock market, and can the surge in investor confidence be sustained amid the country’s economic realities?President Tinubu has appointed a Homeland Security Adviser. Would the move aid the government’s ongoing efforts to enhance national safety and stability?Support the show

  19. 97

    Which strategy works?

    SBM published the Jollof Index last week, which showed that it now costs 43% of Nigeria's national minimum wage. Given what has been happening globally, especially with rising energy prices, what will increased economic pressure mean for Nigerians? Nigeria says 130 citizens want to be evacuated after recent attacks on Nigerians in the country. South Africa's ambassador was summoned, signalling growing diplomatic tension and concern for citizen safety abroad. Will this lead to renewed bilateral efforts to address recurring xenophobic violence?The Bank of Ghana says the cost of currency issuance has dropped sharply, even as the central bank reported a $1.25 billion loss. Will tighter financial management and monetary reforms restore confidence in the country’s financial system and stabilise the broader economy?Support the show

  20. 96

    Grounded

    Can Taiwo Oyedele deliver the fiscal reforms needed to strengthen investor confidence and drive economic growth in Nigeria?A recent rainstorm has caused another setback to the national power grid, worsening electricity disruptions. What urgent steps can Nigeria take to strengthen infrastructure and disaster preparedness against worsening climate-related disruptions?Ivory Coast has recorded over one trillion CFA francs in tax revenue and secured a new 330 billion CFA francs deal. Can the country sustain this fiscal momentum to drive long-term economic growth and regional competitiveness?Support the show

  21. 95

    We love the numbers, just not the neighbourhood

    The US has withdrawn non-essential staff from Abuja due to security concerns. Will this signal deeper diplomatic concern or lead to stronger security assurances from the government?In Borno State, an airstrike killed civilians. Nigeria's military has defended the operation. Can the authorities balance security operations with civilian protection and trust?Ghana has denied reports of plans to host an EU military base. Will this be enough to calm concerns about foreign military presence in the region?Support the show

  22. 94

    Earn like a street vendor, spend like a billionaire

    The Palm Sunday attacks in Jos killed at least 28 people, and this week, attacks in other locations, including in Niger State, have killed up to 60 people. Will increased security interventions be enough to restore calm and prevent further violence?Afreximbank has launched a $10 billion support facility while successfully raising an additional $2 billion to strengthen trade and economic resilience across Africa amid the Iran War. Will these financial interventions translate into tangible economic recovery for African economies?A growing trade dispute between Nigeria and Ghana has disrupted onion shipments and prompted calls for Ghana to suspend tomato imports, escalating tensions in regional agricultural trade. Can diplomatic engagement resolve the standoff before it significantly impacts food supply and prices?Support the show

  23. 93

    Coming with strings

    President Tinubu led the charge to strengthen ties with the United Kingdom through a historic visit. How will this deal balance improved trade efficiency with concerns about reliance on UK-linked funding terms?The Central Bank of Nigeria has tightened BVN and remittance rules while banks raised ₦4.61 trillion. How will these measures impact financial inclusion and customer access to banking services?Tensions between South Africa and the US are rising over foreign policy disagreements, even as global shipping disruptions boost South African ports. Can Pretoria balance diplomatic strain with the economic gains from rerouted trade?Support the show

  24. 92

    The money is moving

    Fuel prices in Nigeria have fluctuated sharply due to global oil market volatility. How will these global shocks continue to affect Nigeria’s domestic fuel prices and inflation? Nigeria’s ports recorded strong growth in 2025, with cargo throughput rising by 24.8% to 129.3 million metric tonnes. What does this growth mean for Nigeria’s position as a regional trade hub?Kenya Pipeline Company’s oversubscribed IPO raised about 106.3 billion Kenyan shillings, with part of the proceeds set to fund major infrastructure projects, including the expansion of Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi. How will this investment shape Kenya’s future transport and energy infrastructure? Support the show

  25. 91

    Planning for the future

    The Dangote Refinery raised petrol prices by 13% as global oil and gas prices surged amid escalating Middle East tensions and fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. How might rising global energy prices and Nigeria’s domestic reforms reshape the country’s oil revenue outlook?At least 25 civilians and three soldiers were killed in coordinated insurgent attacks in Adamawa, and then on Wednesday, an attack in Borno killed 19 soldiers, among others. How can regional security forces better coordinate to contain the growing insurgency?Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has rescheduled the 2027 general elections to 16 January and 6 February 2027. How will the new electoral timelines affect party preparations and voter mobilisation ahead of 2027?Support the show

  26. 90

    Everyone wants a piece

    The CBN's MPC reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points while retaining key reserve and liquidity ratios. Will this rate cut significantly boost lending and economic growth in Nigeria?Foreign investment in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector dropped sharply in 2025, even though total capital inflows into the country increased significantly, raising concerns about the strength of local production. Can the government’s new industrial policy reverse this decline and attract more long-term investment into manufacturing?The DRC is increasing government control over its mineral resources. Will these reforms help the country gain greater economic independence and control over its mining sector?Support the show

  27. 89

    The barrels might be empty

    Nigeria’s Communications Minister, Bosun Tijani, says the government will assess MTN's $2.2 billion acquisition of a majority stake in IHS to ensure it aligns with the country's telecoms priorities. What does this review mean for Nigeria’s telecom sector?The United States has intensified scrutiny over security and illegal mining, with a bill in the House of Representatives proposing sanctions, visa bans, and asset freezes, while the Treasury freezes assets of eight Nigerians linked to extremist and cyber activities. What impact could this have on Nigeria’s security and foreign relations?Meanwhile, the US secretly deported nine migrants to Cameroon despite some having U.S. court protections. The Trump administration flew them from Alexandria on January 14 without Cameroon’s public consent. What are the legal and diplomatic consequences?Support the show

  28. 88

    Everything must go

    After public uproar, Nigeria's Senate amended the Electoral Act to allow (but not mandate) electronic transmission of results. Does this revision protect electoral transparency? Nigeria plans to sell selected state-owned assets from 2026 to reduce its ₦25 trillion budget deficit, attract private capital, and support broader economic reforms. Will this asset sale strategy deliver long-term economic stability or merely provide short-term fiscal relief?Nigeria and South Africa are deepening economic ties with China through new trade agreements. Will closer ties with China drive sustainable growth in Africa, or increase long-term economic dependence?Support the show

  29. 87

    Clarity, the rarest commodity

    This week, SBM Intelligence published a report on Nigeria's new tax laws. We polled people around the country and have found that more than two in three do not trust the government to utilise any extra money judiciously. What can the government do to bridge this trust deficit and prevent the kind of protests we saw in Ghana and Kenya? Next, Nigeria will issue a power-sector bond to settle long-standing arrears owed to electricity companies. The move aims to restore liquidity and boost investor confidence, but will it improve electricity supply sustainably?Finally, Nigeria lowers costs in its new oil licensing round, reducing signature bonuses to attract more investors and increase exploration. The big question: will this drive long-term growth or just short-term interest?Support the show

  30. 86

    Not for the faint of heart

    This week, Nigeria’s foreign policy and economic diplomacy took centre stage as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu began a state visit to Türkiye. With Türkiye emerging as a strategic partner for African economies, the big question is: Will the agreements reached translate into real economic value for Nigeria, or remain diplomatic symbolism?The United Nations has issued a warning that over 35 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger and food insecurity. Is Nigeria prepared to confront this crisis structurally, or will responses remain reactive and emergency-driven?Then we turn to East Africa, where Rwanda and Türkiye have signed a major defence manufacturing agreement. Could this model reshape Africa’s security economy and industrial future?Support the show

  31. 85

    Planning for tomorrow in today’s emergencies

    On Tuesday, Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, gave a robust speech to the World Economic Forum at Davos, where he essentially declared the end of the post-World War 2 international order. Now that it is out in the open, is Africa ready for the rupture?Nigeria has signed a long-awaited MoU with Abu Dhabi Ports Group to collaborate on port development. Could this partnership finally unlock modern, globally competitive ports for Nigeria?African economies are strengthening trade and investment ties with major powers. Is Africa successfully balancing global partnerships to drive growth and reduce fiscal pressure?Support the show

  32. 84

    A temporary, arithmetical spike

    The U.S. House of Representatives has overwhelmingly approved a three-year extension of AGOA. As the bill moves to the Senate, attention is turning to eligibility conditions, with South Africa facing closer scrutiny over its continued participation. Will the AGOA extension translate into real industrial growth for African economies, or will stricter eligibility reviews limit its impact?Ghana has paid $1.47bn to clear legacy energy-sector debts, easing power supply challenges and restoring confidence across the sector. What lessons can other African countries learn from Ghana on clearing sectoral debts, mobilising local capital, and addressing economic challenges without deepening public debt?Uganda has cut internet access and tightened security ahead of its presidential election, drawing criticism over repression as President Museveni seeks a seventh term. Could Uganda’s election process be considered free and fair amid internet shutdowns and a heavy security presence?Support the show

  33. 83

    Headline-generating upheaval

    America gave Nigeria a Christmas present, lobbing some bombs at Sokoto State. Then they kidnapped the President of Venezuela. What is happening with the United States?China's top diplomat, Wang Yi's has started another Africa tour. Simultaneously, Botswana is courting Russian investment. In Somalia, protests erupted against Israel's recognition of Somaliland. How are African countries navigating this complex era of competing geopolitical overtures?Nigeria's government has refused to delay the implementation of controversial new taxes. Will the government’s stance intensify public backlash or force a policy rethink?Support the show

  34. 82

    At an inflexion point

    In this final episode of 2025, we discuss the events that have starkly defined Africa's critical crossroads. Geopolitically, the continent faces more stringent "America First" policies and the historic rupture of three Sahel states' exit from ECOWAS, fuelling a regional security crisis. Simultaneously, major flashpoints persist, from civil war in Sudan to rebel control in the DRC, while widespread youth protests demand economic justice.Looking to 2026, politics will dominate, with pivotal elections, while persistent security threats and cautious economic optimism, characterised by growth amid high inflation, shape the outlook. The fundamental question remains whether the continent will forge strategic unity or succumb to deepening fractures in an increasingly transactional world order.Support the show

  35. 81

    Finding a working power socket

    Benin foiled a coup attempt, prompting regional military support and emergency action from ECOWAS and the AU. At the same time, tensions escalated between Nigeria and the Alliance for Sahel States over an unapproved Nigerian military landing in Burkina Faso. What impact could these twin crises have on West Africa’s security cooperation?A US congressional delegation met with NSA Nuhu Ribadu in Abuja amid US concerns over alleged religious persecution, which Nigeria rejects. How might this visit shape Nigeria's future security outcomes?A new US-brokered peace and minerals cooperation deal between Congo and Rwanda was quickly tested as fresh fighting erupted between Congo’s army and M23 rebels, raising doubts about the agreement’s durability. Congo accuses Rwanda of violations, while the U.S. calls for restraint amid fears that mineral interests are overshadowing genuine peace efforts. Can this deal survive renewed conflict, or is deeper diplomacy needed to address long-standing tensions?Support the show

  36. 80

    Netting clear

    Nigeria declared a security emergency, began expanding its armed forces, approved 20,000 new police recruits, and moved security officers from VIP protection to conflict areas, all before the defence minister resigned abruptly. What should Nigeria do next in 2026 to strengthen its security progress?TotalEnergies sold its 12.5% stake in OML 118, Shell and Nigerian Agip acquired portions, petrol prices fell, and daily consumption rose 31.8% to 56.7 million litres. Crude output slightly dipped to 1.58 million barrels per day. How will falling petrol prices and higher consumption affect Nigeria’s energy sector next year?Cyril Ramaphosa rejected Donald Trump’s claims that South Africa mishandled the G20 presidency, threatened exclusion from the G20 summit, and persecuted white citizens, calling the accusations false. He confirmed a proper handover at the Johannesburg meeting and noted continued U.S. business and civil society engagement. How could diplomatic tensions affect South Africa’s economic partnerships in 2026?Support the show

  37. 79

    Crunches hinder growth spurt

    Just days after the elections and a day before the results were due to be announced, a coup took place in Guinea-Bissau. Is democracy on the way out in West Africa?The Central Bank of Nigeria held rates and stopped new state loans after large unrecovered debts, pushing private-led credit. Can private banks fill the financing gap for key sectors?South Africa and the EU agreed on local mineral processing while securing supply for Europe’s green tech. The European Investment Bank pledged renewable-energy funding for Africa. Can South Africa industrialise fast while supplying Europe?Support the show

  38. 78

    A devastating downgrade

    A Brigadier General of the Nigerian Army, Musa Uba, was captured and murdered by ISWAP terrorists following an ambush in Borno State. On the same day, 25 school girls were kidnapped in Kebbi State, and the next day, three people were killed in an attack on a church in Kwara State, an attack that was live-streamed. What the heck is happening in Nigeria? Nigeria has dropped its plan to introduce a 15% duty on imported petrol and diesel. Regulators say the fuel supply is stable and warn against panic buying or hoarding, noting they will continue to monitor the market to ensure stability. What does this reversal mean for local refineries and overall fuel pricing?Ivory Coast raised 59.05 billion CFA francs from a short-term Treasury bill, showing investors remain confident. S&P kept the country’s BB/B rating stable, citing strong growth prospects and steady economic management. How will this affect the Ivory Coast’s future borrowing and investor interest?Support the show

  39. 77

    Onto a landmine

    Governor Charles Soludo of APGA won re-election in Anambra, defeating APC’s Nicholas Ukachukwu in all 21 LGAs despite reports of vote buying, BVAS glitches, and low turnout. Can this victory inspire stronger electoral reforms in the Southeast?The governor of Edo State, Monday Okpebholo, has cancelled the land rights for the new Museum of West Africa in Benin City, following a fracas on the museum's opening day. What does this mean for property rights and investment in Nigeria? Niger has vowed to keep its border with Benin closed over security concerns and allegations that Benin is aiding Western-backed destabilisation efforts, which Benin denies. The closure, which has been in effect since 2023, has hurt trade and strained ties between the countries. Could this continued border closure further strain regional relations and economic stability in West Africa?Support the show

  40. 76

    Fighting on multiple fronts

    The U.S. and Nigeria are experiencing diplomatic tensions after President Trump threatened possible military action over religious violence. Where is this going?Nigeria has approved a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel to encourage local refining, which may lead to increased fuel prices. Critics argue that it primarily benefits the Dangote refinery. Will this policy truly boost local refining, or will it simply make fuel more expensive for consumers?Yesterday, SBM Intel published its 2025 Health Preparedness Index, which showed that no Nigerian state is prepared for an emergency. What is the problem? How can it be sorted?Support the show

  41. 75

    Is there a Christian genocide in Nigeria?

    On Frank Talk with Daniel Odeyemi on Rave FM Ogbomoso, SBM analyst, Confidence McHarry, debates Sheikh Ahmad Gumi on whether there is indeed a Christian genocide in Nigeria…Support the show

  42. 74

    Moving rapidly

    Last week, SBM Intel published its quarterly Jollof Index. The index told a tale of two economies. In Nigeria, food prices dipped slightly despite long-term issues, while in Ghana, despite some stability, food prices rose slightly, especially in the Northern region. What is happening there?Ghana’s producer inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in September 2025 from 30.5% a year earlier, showing reduced production costs and economic stability. However, the government’s treasury bill auction missed its target by 30%, signalling weak investor confidence even with stable returns. Why are investors turning away from Ghana’s treasury bills despite signs of easing inflation?Cameroon faces rising unrest after the court upheld President Paul Biya’s eighth-term victory, rejecting opposition petitions and prompting deadly protests. Internet access has been cut, raising censorship concerns. How might the internet blackout affect public trust and political stability in Cameroon?Support the show

  43. 73

    The plot never thickens

    Reports of an alleged coup plot against President Bola Tinubu have caused public outrage. The Defence Headquarters denied the claims, saying there was no coup plan or related arrests. Is there a danger of a coup? What do such stories mean for Nigeria's economy?Kano, Katsina, and Jigawa plan to raise ₦50 billion and form a joint electricity market to boost power supply. How will this collaboration improve electricity access in the region?An Ivorian court sentenced 32 protesters to three years in prison, part of a pre-election crackdown following violent unrest and key candidate exclusions ahead of tomorrow's election. How is the government balancing election security with the right to peaceful assembly? Will this affect the outcome?Support the show

  44. 72

    Africa's double bind

    At least 22 people have been killed since unrest began in Madagascar, culminating in the military seizing power after the president fled. The AU has suspended the country. Will this coup bring stability or worsen the country’s political crisis?Authorities in the Ivory Coast arrested 237 people during a banned protest a few weeks before the October 25 election. Opposition leaders were barred from the race and vowed to keep protesting. Will this unrest affect the credibility of the election?President Bola Tinubu has named Professor Joash Ojo Amupitan (SAN) from Kogi State as the new INEC Chairperson, succeeding Mahmood Yakubu after his 10-year tenure. Will this change in leadership impact public trust in Nigeria’s electoral process?Support the show

  45. 71

    A unifying flair for the dramatic

    Oba Ewuare II of Benin rejected the introduction of the Iyaloja title in Edo markets, insisting that the palace-recognised Iyeki remains the traditional market leader and that the Iyaloja concept is foreign to Benin culture. Could this reflect growing friction between tradition and modern political influence?The AfDB approved a $500 million loan to support Nigeria’s fiscal and power reforms, while the CBN introduced stricter agent banking rules, including a ₦1.2 million daily cash-out limit and real-time settlements. Do these moves reflect renewed confidence in Nigeria’s reform and economic stability efforts? Côte d'Ivoire has banned protests over the exclusion of opposition figures from the October 25 presidential election, as President Alassane Ouattara seeks a fourth term. Will this move deepen political tensions?Support the show

  46. 70

    Fragile truces

    Ghana has signed a $256 million debt restructuring deal with the UK, while the IMF begins its fifth review of the country’s bailout, which could unlock more funds. Will this boost be enough to strengthen Ghana’s economic recovery?A gold mine collapse in Zamfara killed at least 13 miners, with officials blaming heavy rains and unsafe illegal mining. Can stronger regulation truly stop unsafe mining practices?Manufacturers caution that new tax stamps could raise costs and hurt competitiveness, while from 2026, Nigerians working remotely for foreign firms will pay income tax of up to 25%. Can these policies boost revenue without stifling industries or workers?Support the show

  47. 69

    A stronger wifi signal

    Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.23% in the second quarter signaling cautious optimism as the country navigates structural reforms. Can this growth be sustained in the coming quarters?The Central Bank of Nigeria has cut its benchmark interest rate to 27%, aiming to stimulate borrowing, investment, and overall economic activity. Will this rate cut strike the right balance between boosting growth and controlling inflation?Several Sahel states have announced their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), branding it a “neocolonial tool.” Does this withdrawal strengthen their sovereignty, or weaken the fight against impunity?Support the show

  48. 68

    Between reforms and realities

    Nigeria's government has announced a six-month suspension on the export of shea nuts in a bid to encourage local value addition and stimulate domestic processing. How will this ban reshape the balance between exporters and local processors in the short term?The recent increase in the price of compressed natural gas is straining households and transport operators across Nigeria. Once seen as a cheaper alternative to petrol, CNG’s rising cost is raising doubts about its viability as a long-term solution to fuel affordability. Could this price hike slow down Nigeria’s energy transition and push more citizens back to petrol use?Tidjane Thiam, former Credit Suisse CEO, has reaffirmed his determination to contest Ivory Coast’s 2025 presidential election despite political pushback. Will Thiam’s international reputation give him an edge in Ivory Coast’s tense political landscape?Support the show

  49. 67

    Study in contrasts

    SBM Intelligence's annual report on kidnapping in Nigeria shows that while the number of victims is down almost 50% from 2024, the amounts paid as ransoms have more than doubled. Are kidnappers becoming more efficient?Nigeria and Brazil have signed an air service agreement to enable direct flights and boost economic cooperation. How can both countries ensure this partnership delivers lasting impact?Ghana has removed the minimum capital requirement for foreign investors, while the Bank of Ghana now restricts large firms from withdrawing foreign currency without matching deposits to protect the cedi. How can Ghana encourage investment while maintaining currency stability?Support the show

  50. 66

    Cleaning up their act

    Nigeria’s national security adviser has announced the arrest of two insurgent leaders, Mahmud Muhammad Usman of Ansaru and Mahmud al-Nigeri of the Mahmuda group. In a separate development, the Nigerian Army has approved a major redeployment of senior officers to boost the fight against insurgency. Could these moves signal a turning point in Nigeria’s security strategy? The US has approved a sale of $346 million in arms to Nigeria. Meanwhile, Nigeria has vowed to impose reciprocal visa restrictions on American citizens in response to the U.S.’s newly introduced, stringent visa rules. How will this mix of military cooperation and diplomatic friction shape future U.S.–Nigeria ties?Finally, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz has urged the Trump administration to recognise Somaliland as an independent state. Would U.S. recognition of Somaliland reshape the geopolitical balance in the Horn of Africa?Support the show

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ABOUT THIS SHOW

SBM Intelligence's take on Nigeria and Africa brought to you every week.

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SBM Intelligence

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SBM Intelligence's take on Nigeria and Africa brought to you every week.

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