Threadguy Live

Markets turn ugly with semis crushed, the South Korean KOSPI circuit-breaking 10% lower, and AMC diluting away the trade of the year right after its first rip in years. Threadguy digs into the accelerating anti-AI backlash, the movie theater renaissance, Waymo banned in New York, Meta's new glasses and prediction-market app, Trump's quantum push, and where it all heads as more and more people become traders.

Threadguy on why luxury is dying and being hot IRL is the new status symbol, the one trait separating traders who make it from those who lose it all, and how Crypto Jared's sandwich bot got sandwiched for $15 million. Plus Chinese open source coming for the AI labs after the Fable ban, Micron into earnings, and why pricing assets might be the most important job in the world.

Market's closed, so Threadguy runs a rare casual Friday solo and just talks. He gets into the Jesse Livermore corn saga, why trading clout is the story and not the PnL, the AMC and StubHub catalyst plays, the free money indicator he is building, and the big thesis: why a psychosis fried generation taking over markets might mean the end of sustained bear markets.

Threadguy breaks down Strategy's STRC death spiral and why Michael Saylor is the most cornered he's ever been, then digs into Midjourney's new full-body medical scanner and the small-cap quietly powering it. Plus $500 GTA 6, the only two reasons left to be bullish, the Fed going irrelevant, and mourning the Fable ban.

Threadguy watches Kevin Warsh's first FOMC presser live and comes away convinced the new Fed chair is no puppet, then runs the tape: why he's still long SpaceX into a parabolic move, the one flaw between him and an eight-figure P&L, the Michael Saylor STRC death spiral, Snapchat's $2,200 glasses disgrace, and why cheap Chinese open source could pop the AI bubble. Plus Hyperliquid's catalysts and the AMC trade that beat a year of Bitcoin.

SpaceX rips to an all-time high and Threadguy makes the case that we just watched the great cryptification of the stock market, from Elon out-earning Warren Buffett's entire career in a day to a Cape Verde keeper out-following the NBA's biggest star. Plus why everybody hates AI except the people who hold assets, the setup into Kevin Warsh's first FOMC, and why he would happily give Tim Cook all of his data.

Anthropic's best model gets yanked by the US government four days after launch, SpaceX rips past its IPO, and the war finally ends, all over one weekend. Threadguy on why the SpaceX top everyone called never showed up, the UK social media ban, America's glory run, fading every war scare, and why Anthropic is trapped in a fight with the government it can't win.

SpaceX IPO day: the largest IPO in history opens live on stream, space stocks get destroyed after pumping into it, and Elon officially becomes the world's first trillionaire. Plus movies are back, paste.trade grades every stream call green, and the time has come to retire the Saylor intro.

Jack Schwager, the Market Wizards author, joins Threadguy fresh off the launch of his new book, The Next Generation. He covers decades of market evolution from the pit era to AI, the Paul Tudor Jones cotton blowup, the solo trader who has never had a losing month, and why the unknowns in the new book stack up against the legends of the 80s. Closes on his Mount Rushmore of traders, why AI will never solve the markets, and the position flip he made the morning of the interview.

Threadguy returns from the greatest Knicks game ever to a market ripping on the Iran peace deal, with oil crashing and every space stock front running tomorrow's SpaceX IPO. Plus the Kharg Island fakeout, the top signal hiding in the retail SpaceX frenzy, and Market Wizards author Jack Schwager joins to close it out.

Two days out from the SpaceX IPO, Threadguy preps for the Jack Schwager interview with Market Wizards lore and the Druckenmiller Black Monday story, reacts to Brian Johnson's new Rx platform, and enters two new positions on the IRL thesis. Then CPI comes in hot, Broadcom asks if the summer already topped, and Good Alexander returns to break down the IPO that sucks the liquidity out of everything.

Good Alexander returns two days before the SpaceX IPO, this time in his new role as the show's resident IPO specialist. The ex-Palantir, ex-telecom analyst breaks down why the IPO wave is a liquidity event nobody can ignore, Elon's data centers in space pitch, the trade he has on into Friday, and the shorting heuristic he learned from his first blowup. They cover the OpenAI and Anthropic listings on deck, the fake numbers debate, Fable 24 hours after launch, whether Bessent is in the order books, and the question that decides Palantir. Closes on the one consensus long he would fade.

Thread returns from the Knicks street watch parties and opens with his case for a couple year era of peak American excellence. From there it's the robot trade nobody can actually buy, a hunt for the bottleneck stocks behind the boom, a SpaceX IPO game plan, Claude Fable 5 dropping mid-stream, and US strikes on Iran landing live on air.

Back from a family graduation to a Friday crash everyone already forgot, the Knicks ticket he fumbled by two minutes, and the case against Saylor's $2 billion Bitcoin sale. Then a pump.fun teardown, Jensen's full Korea pump tour, the WWDC Siri roast, Trump floating AI equity stakes, and the IRL events mega trade, from Monaco's peak wealth to the Ozempic fitness boom.

Counterparty's own Tulip King joins Threadguy for the first interview on the new overlays to break down the Zcash exploit that rattled crypto: how a ZK-circuit bug let someone quietly mint phantom tokens, why the fix exposed a centralization problem most holders missed, and what it taught him about the value of a network that does nothing. He gets into the Bitcoin trade he swore he'd never make, his contrarian case for letting quantum run its course, where the real returns are hiding in low-cap crypto, and the privacy-by-choice thesis. Closes on why Bitcoin, for all the carnage, is still destiny.

Threadguy marks ten months and a full rebrand, suits and all, on one of the ugliest Bitcoin days yet: why every Saylor buy now reads as exit liquidity, ETH cratering since Hoffman sold, and the war-and-oil Groundhog Day that won't quit. Plus the only CEO worth liking, the quantum IPO about to own the stream doc, and Tulip King breaking down the Zcash exploit.

A dark day in Crypto with Bitcoin cliffing, but stocks are euphoric: Threadguy apes Marvell after Jensen calls it the next trillion dollar stock, Victoria's Secret rips 47%, and Google drops an $80 billion raise. Plus the barnacle oil trade, the Pokemon gacha machine, why the Citron founder got jailed for short selling, and the case that YouTubers are taking over Hollywood.

Good call, that was a 15-min gap. Adding 13:35 the software melt-up (ARM +90%, Dell +100%, Oracle/Snowflake/Salesforce all +10%, IGV ripping while defense sells off). It's the clean counterpoint to "nobody cares about Bitcoin" and it splits the gap roughly in half.

Hyperliquid runs to a new high as the CFTC clears the first US Bitcoin perp, and Threadguy makes the case for why it just wins. Plus getting back with the Zcash ex, the AI speech humiliation ritual, the SaaS rotation he calls the real crypto signal, why every oil bull is cooked, IPOs pricing off the hype chart, and the night he single-handedly puts the bottom in on alcohol.

Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk from Syncracy break down their great purification thesis: where the asset class is dispersing, why hype is escaping the pack, and how to value it when crypto-native FDV math falls apart. They cover the trader-to-investor era of crypto, the case for HODL again, Ryan's reluctant defense of ETH, where Bitcoin fits in the new paradigm, the institutional pipeline entering hyperliquid, and how to price regulatory risk. Closes on the state of liquid funds and why activist investing isn't worth the headache.

A Julian Robertson Tiger blow-up arc from More Money Than God: trapped on the Yen, the $150M slam-long save, the LP carry-out at the dot com peak. Bitcoin running the Saylor entry, Hood ripping on the Trump accounts launch, Anthropic's Series H, Don Jr's drones flying on the WSJ headline, a Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk interview, and the inevitable Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Threadguy on why The Big Short ruined a generation of traders, today's crowdsourced kickchat portfolio as a top signal, and the Pope getting a $660K Ferrari EV. Plus the cold storage Bitcoin he almost moved into 10-year treasuries, the JP Morgan rumor on Vance, the X-FAB Silicon Foundries rip after a Serendipity tweet, and a sit-down with Nic Carter on robotics, AGI, quantum, and Crypto.

Nic Carter (Castle Island Ventures, prolific Bitcoin writer) joins on the same day he signed on as independent director at Robo Strategy. They cover his case that AGI has quietly arrived, the legendary CoreWeave angel investment that became his ticket into AI deep tech, the white-collar apocalypse hiding inside the K-shape, and where his odds sit on quantum breaking Bitcoin by 2035. Closes on the secretive Bitcoin Core dev scene, what a Satoshi coin heist actually looks like, and why he's still fighting the crypto war when most of his peers have rage-quit.

Back from the Memorial break with a pool hall hustle, the hobbymaxing thesis, and a confession on breaking the number one trading rule. Micron rips 20%, Ferrari unveils its Johnny Ive EV, a $5M Wemby rookie sells, and the Pope signs with Anthropic to publish his AI ethics letter.

Threadguy slides for Warren Buffett against Airmass, tries to long SWGAY into the AP Swatch giga-viral resale frenzy, and watches Robinhood get mogged by Hyperliquid in real time. Plus semis bloodbath one day after Airmass' $8K Micron call, MegaETH puts in the worst crypto chart of all time, and Leopold's missing 13F rugs the entire stream.

2:55 normies running up $400k on options6:30 getting recognized for my Zcash trade8:40 me vs Loracle in the orderbooks23:10 the f*ck you no entry pattern25:30 @bankless interview30:20 Selling a 62 ETH Punk for Zcash32:50 ETH leadership should care about price37:00 roaring kitty hacked live

David Hoffman (Bankless co-founder) returns to break down why he sold his 62 ETH CryptoPunk for Zcash, the ideological split with Vitalik on whether ETH should BE the power or be a check on it, and why he thinks Saylor selling Bitcoin is actually bullish for stretch. Plus the case for a top-100 re-rating (crypto Twitter pumps it then hands it off to Bitwise and Grayscale for boomer retirement portfolios), why DeFi needs a complete rewrite from an aeronautics-redundancy perspective after the Kelp DAO + AVE + Layer Zero cascade, and how Claude-powered guest prep is changing Bankless.

Thread breaks down Airmass's 6-month-silence Micron all-in tweet that's already up 43% off the post, watches CoffeeZilla get credit-mogged by Jeff Walton on the stretch-Ponzi debate, and confesses he forcefully drives himself crazy trading so he doesn't drive himself crazy on vacation. Closes with the cleanest "move to NYC if you're in finance" advice and why holding-only Bitcoin is blasphemous for a daily trader.

Thread argues every bear has flipped after the Iran shakeout (PTJ slamming stocks at ATH, Burry buying Lululemon) and lays out his 5-coin crypto thesis: only Bitcoin, privacy, perps, and private AI matter while alt-season is officially dead. Closes with hantavirus dismissed as a nothing burger and Ryan Cohen's eBay bloody-pig-mask scandal making the case for acquisition.

Threadguy opens with the easiest trades being the best ones, ties it to a Market Wizards zen-monk excerpt, then lays out why every influencer is about to pivot to financial content. He walks through how Walter Bloomberg got him at 4am with a fake Iran-war-over headline, why he's holding his Zcash trade through the chop, and brings on Compound founder Robert Leshner. Leshner gets into the Compound exploit lore, why he left to start Superstate, and how every product gets a Napster era before grandma uses it.

Threadguy sits down with Compound founder Robert Leshner, the OG DeFi builder who was literally in the group chat where the word DeFi was coined back in 2018. Leshner walks through the Compound exploit lore, why he left to build Superstate, and where he lands on Hyperliquid's RWA perps. He gets into how every product gets a Napster era before grandma uses it, the $200M KelpDAO hack that scared TradFi institutions into calling him within 12 hours, why the token-equity overhang traces back to the Gensler reign of terror, and his optimistic wrap on crypto's next 12 months.

Threadguy comes back disgustingly bullish on three coins (BTC, Zcash, Hyperliquid) while everywhere else is at ATH. He covers the $45K gold chain David Yurman wouldn't let him leave with, why the Iran escalation is a fade trade because Trump keeps juggling markets up, and a feature interview with Rekt Mando on the Korean stocks trade. Closes on Ryan Cohen's bizarre CNBC interview after GameStop's $55B eBay bid

Threadguy sits down with Rekt Mando, the macro trader who quit tradfi distressed credit to chase all-time-high breakouts and has been pitching the Korean stocks trade for weeks. Mando covers why he faded the war hard, what's changing in Korean governance, why the Chaebol discount is finally cracking, and how Samsung and SK Hynix are sitting on a structural memory bid. He gets into how all momentum traders are converging across crypto and microcap stocks, what AI bottlenecks are real vs hallucinated, why SaaS is the new altcoin trade, and the moment that flipped him from buying distressed bottoms to chasing all-time highs. Closes on the emerging markets he refuses to bid and the one Asian country he sees second to Korea.

Threadguy navigates another day where Google adds $500B in a single session while crypto sits uninspiring. He covers the post-close earnings carnage, the Hertz RoboTaxi moonshot, a Banks and Zee pairing that brings Ansem on for some Solana confessions, Tim Cook's farewell call handing Apple to John Ternus, and the diary smoking-gun in Elon's OpenAI lawsuit. Closes on why DeFi might be officially unusable now that the White House has rationed Anthropic's Mythos.

Threadguy sits down with Tolks, the anonymous trader behind the macro substack crypto twitter actually reads. They cover why crypto stopped tracking equities, why he hasn't shorted since Trump's Easter V-reverse, and why every institutional adoption headline is bullish for everyone except crypto traders.

Threadguy walks into the biggest earnings day of the year with Google ripping, Meta crashed, and oil sitting at ATH while stocks shrug. He covers what's left to bid in fintech trading, what the Hormuz blockade actually means for the trade now, and where crypto sits as the ultimate cuck asset. Tolks joins for the trader-psychology beat on listening to the market when every bear signal is screaming.

Threadguy sits down with Bubble Boi, the anonymous chip-designer-by-day who rode the Intel turnaround into post-economic by going all-in on his single best idea. Bubble Boi covers how he spotted Intel before anyone else wanted it, why the consensus on TSMC vs Intel is dead wrong, where his price target sits, and what comes next on his board after the Intel run. He gets into how retail traders are using AI completely wrong, what bottlenecks in the AI trade are real vs hallucinated, and closes with a risk-management framework that reframes what edge actually means for the average trader.

Threadguy back solo Monday before a stacked week of Bubble Boy, Tolks and Mando interviews. He covers the QQQ ATH, the Lighter dinner story on why fading high beta is the move, and the hallucination yield thesis turning ChatGPT prompts into real market flow. Plus the POET implosion over a Marvell NDA breach with the CEO holding just $55k of his own stock, and why OpenAI's phone with MediaTek and Qualcomm could be the first real Apple killer.

Threadguy sits down with Easy Eats to break down why HOOD is the simplest bet of all time, how wallet tracking turned one trader $15K into $800K on Polymarket, and the picks-and-shovels AI play nobody is watching. They cover LFMD peptides, the Novo Nordisk short setup, Apple's Cook-transition bull case, and DHT and FRO oil shippers nobody is pricing in.

Threadguy meets Hans Niemann IRL at his Netflix screening, crowns the hotel cuck chair the Bitcoin chair as stocks rip to ATH, and cancels his weekend on Bessent's 18 months to AI game over quote. Easy Eats Bodega closes with HOOD as the simplest bet of all time, Apple long on the Cook transition, and oil shippers nobody is pricing in.