Threadguy Live

Bubble Boi returns a quarter after his Intel and SanDisk calls went up only, and a week after his million-view "sold out of everything" tweet. He explains what one Chinese AI model changed about the entire memory trade, where his market exposure actually sits now, and the IPO he'd full port if he could get access. Plus why the worst memory maker keeps winning, whether China can really catch up on chips, the AI civil war brewing over open source, and the product he might build himself to kill DRAM.

Rasmr calls in after binking 100K on the GME memecoin's on-chain short squeeze, and the morning only gets stranger from there: corporate interns shilling a $29M raccoon, Google's $200B CapEx bet dragging the hyperscalers into free fall, Zyn conquering America while Philip Morris sits at all-time highs, and a guest with a million dollars of spot PUMP explaining his nine figures or zero philosophy.

Vlad, founder and CEO of Lighter, returns for round two, this time post TGE and mid run as one of the hottest products in finance. He gets into whether AI agents will ever replace human traders, the race to become the first licensed perp dex in the US, why tokenized stocks are moving slower than the opportunity deserves, and whether buybacks actually matter. Plus the markets that don't exist yet, how the Robinhood and Telegram partnerships came together during the quiet months, and what's coming on the Lighter roadmap.

An OpenAI model broke containment and hacked Hugging Face, Iran hit an Amazon AI data center, and Gemini shipped a worse model. Plus the honest Clarity Act take, kids passing funded accounts on the school bus, the fake hedge fund method backfiring at the bar, and why culture has TikTok brain now.

The $250K World Cup prediction market farm gets the full read, a bot handing out free money on games that already ended. Plus everyone in every NYC coffee shop ripping Claude, why you can't even short Chinese AI, DATs as crypto's worst experiment, pump quietly printing a million dollars a day, and Miami as America's midlife crisis destination.

A horrifying day in the markets: China's Kimi K3 takes the number one spot from every US lab, DRAM and the entire AI trade get piss dumped, and every hedge fund manager on earth calls the bottom. Plus the Brian Armstrong and Vlad memecoin conspiracy, Netflix's worst earnings in company history, and the most deranged Trump speech Thread has ever heard.

The AI civil war goes public: OpenAI's new strategy hire calls for regulatory FUD on Chinese open source, Sacks fires back, and Kimi raises at 1/30th of the labs it just outbenchmarked. Plus AMC printing historic earnings right after the trade got away, a $960K Jensen jacket, the case that pump is priced horrifically wrong, and Tom Brady's legacy speedrun.

Thread opens on a scary tape: DRAM at the close your eyes and bid level, semis bleeding, and Bitcoin surprising everyone. Pete Hegseth puts the military on testosterone, intelligence races to zero as Chinese open source closes the gap, and Jesse Pollak hands the Base app to Cobie, prompting a full post-mortem on why creator coins were doomed. Plus Chamath's privacy coin article and why business is just memes now.

Korea circuit-breakers into a leverage wipeout, Trump declares the USA guardian of the Hormuz Strait live on stream, and Apple prints an all-time high the same morning it sues OpenAI. Plus a 10 for 10 Polymarket World Cup run, SpaceX flirting with its IPO price, the Elon vs Sam beef, and the case that crypto just bottomed.

Threadguy calls the memory bottom live as DRAM rips 5% off the open, breaks down the billion dollar PDF theory behind every era-defining tech paper, and watches GPT Live voice land as the biggest AI product launch of the year. Closes with the full memecoin confession: why Robinhood's chain dragged him back in and why they are never going away.

Threadguy relives the night Robinhood chain launched and a Vlad Tenev tweet turned his bedtime trade into the CASHCAT fumble. Then: whether memecoins can ever really die, the unsolved games thesis behind Ansem and CASHCAT, what Vlad should ship next, the first war the market simply got bored of, and why early access to frontier AI is like steroids.

Thread comes back from the Hamptons to a historic market open: memory stocks in freefall while Bitcoin shrugs off Saylor's first big sale, and Ansem coin brings seven-figure PnLs back onchain. Plus Trump declaring war on short sellers, China moving to gate its frontier AI models, and Tony Robbins telling the worst AI story ever told.

Markets turn ugly with semis crushed, the South Korean KOSPI circuit-breaking 10% lower, and AMC diluting away the trade of the year right after its first rip in years. Threadguy digs into the accelerating anti-AI backlash, the movie theater renaissance, Waymo banned in New York, Meta's new glasses and prediction-market app, Trump's quantum push, and where it all heads as more and more people become traders.

Threadguy on why luxury is dying and being hot IRL is the new status symbol, the one trait separating traders who make it from those who lose it all, and how Crypto Jared's sandwich bot got sandwiched for $15 million. Plus Chinese open source coming for the AI labs after the Fable ban, Micron into earnings, and why pricing assets might be the most important job in the world.

Market's closed, so Threadguy runs a rare casual Friday solo and just talks. He gets into the Jesse Livermore corn saga, why trading clout is the story and not the PnL, the AMC and StubHub catalyst plays, the free money indicator he is building, and the big thesis: why a psychosis fried generation taking over markets might mean the end of sustained bear markets.

Threadguy breaks down Strategy's STRC death spiral and why Michael Saylor is the most cornered he's ever been, then digs into Midjourney's new full-body medical scanner and the small-cap quietly powering it. Plus $500 GTA 6, the only two reasons left to be bullish, the Fed going irrelevant, and mourning the Fable ban.

Threadguy watches Kevin Warsh's first FOMC presser live and comes away convinced the new Fed chair is no puppet, then runs the tape: why he's still long SpaceX into a parabolic move, the one flaw between him and an eight-figure P&L, the Michael Saylor STRC death spiral, Snapchat's $2,200 glasses disgrace, and why cheap Chinese open source could pop the AI bubble. Plus Hyperliquid's catalysts and the AMC trade that beat a year of Bitcoin.

SpaceX rips to an all-time high and Threadguy makes the case that we just watched the great cryptification of the stock market, from Elon out-earning Warren Buffett's entire career in a day to a Cape Verde keeper out-following the NBA's biggest star. Plus why everybody hates AI except the people who hold assets, the setup into Kevin Warsh's first FOMC, and why he would happily give Tim Cook all of his data.

Anthropic's best model gets yanked by the US government four days after launch, SpaceX rips past its IPO, and the war finally ends, all over one weekend. Threadguy on why the SpaceX top everyone called never showed up, the UK social media ban, America's glory run, fading every war scare, and why Anthropic is trapped in a fight with the government it can't win.

SpaceX IPO day: the largest IPO in history opens live on stream, space stocks get destroyed after pumping into it, and Elon officially becomes the world's first trillionaire. Plus movies are back, paste.trade grades every stream call green, and the time has come to retire the Saylor intro.

Jack Schwager, the Market Wizards author, joins Threadguy fresh off the launch of his new book, The Next Generation. He covers decades of market evolution from the pit era to AI, the Paul Tudor Jones cotton blowup, the solo trader who has never had a losing month, and why the unknowns in the new book stack up against the legends of the 80s. Closes on his Mount Rushmore of traders, why AI will never solve the markets, and the position flip he made the morning of the interview.

Threadguy returns from the greatest Knicks game ever to a market ripping on the Iran peace deal, with oil crashing and every space stock front running tomorrow's SpaceX IPO. Plus the Kharg Island fakeout, the top signal hiding in the retail SpaceX frenzy, and Market Wizards author Jack Schwager joins to close it out.

Two days out from the SpaceX IPO, Threadguy preps for the Jack Schwager interview with Market Wizards lore and the Druckenmiller Black Monday story, reacts to Brian Johnson's new Rx platform, and enters two new positions on the IRL thesis. Then CPI comes in hot, Broadcom asks if the summer already topped, and Good Alexander returns to break down the IPO that sucks the liquidity out of everything.

Good Alexander returns two days before the SpaceX IPO, this time in his new role as the show's resident IPO specialist. The ex-Palantir, ex-telecom analyst breaks down why the IPO wave is a liquidity event nobody can ignore, Elon's data centers in space pitch, the trade he has on into Friday, and the shorting heuristic he learned from his first blowup. They cover the OpenAI and Anthropic listings on deck, the fake numbers debate, Fable 24 hours after launch, whether Bessent is in the order books, and the question that decides Palantir. Closes on the one consensus long he would fade.

Thread returns from the Knicks street watch parties and opens with his case for a couple year era of peak American excellence. From there it's the robot trade nobody can actually buy, a hunt for the bottleneck stocks behind the boom, a SpaceX IPO game plan, Claude Fable 5 dropping mid-stream, and US strikes on Iran landing live on air.

Back from a family graduation to a Friday crash everyone already forgot, the Knicks ticket he fumbled by two minutes, and the case against Saylor's $2 billion Bitcoin sale. Then a pump.fun teardown, Jensen's full Korea pump tour, the WWDC Siri roast, Trump floating AI equity stakes, and the IRL events mega trade, from Monaco's peak wealth to the Ozempic fitness boom.

Counterparty's own Tulip King joins Threadguy for the first interview on the new overlays to break down the Zcash exploit that rattled crypto: how a ZK-circuit bug let someone quietly mint phantom tokens, why the fix exposed a centralization problem most holders missed, and what it taught him about the value of a network that does nothing. He gets into the Bitcoin trade he swore he'd never make, his contrarian case for letting quantum run its course, where the real returns are hiding in low-cap crypto, and the privacy-by-choice thesis. Closes on why Bitcoin, for all the carnage, is still destiny.

Threadguy marks ten months and a full rebrand, suits and all, on one of the ugliest Bitcoin days yet: why every Saylor buy now reads as exit liquidity, ETH cratering since Hoffman sold, and the war-and-oil Groundhog Day that won't quit. Plus the only CEO worth liking, the quantum IPO about to own the stream doc, and Tulip King breaking down the Zcash exploit.

A dark day in Crypto with Bitcoin cliffing, but stocks are euphoric: Threadguy apes Marvell after Jensen calls it the next trillion dollar stock, Victoria's Secret rips 47%, and Google drops an $80 billion raise. Plus the barnacle oil trade, the Pokemon gacha machine, why the Citron founder got jailed for short selling, and the case that YouTubers are taking over Hollywood.

Good call, that was a 15-min gap. Adding 13:35 the software melt-up (ARM +90%, Dell +100%, Oracle/Snowflake/Salesforce all +10%, IGV ripping while defense sells off). It's the clean counterpoint to "nobody cares about Bitcoin" and it splits the gap roughly in half.

Hyperliquid runs to a new high as the CFTC clears the first US Bitcoin perp, and Threadguy makes the case for why it just wins. Plus getting back with the Zcash ex, the AI speech humiliation ritual, the SaaS rotation he calls the real crypto signal, why every oil bull is cooked, IPOs pricing off the hype chart, and the night he single-handedly puts the bottom in on alcohol.

Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk from Syncracy break down their great purification thesis: where the asset class is dispersing, why hype is escaping the pack, and how to value it when crypto-native FDV math falls apart. They cover the trader-to-investor era of crypto, the case for HODL again, Ryan's reluctant defense of ETH, where Bitcoin fits in the new paradigm, the institutional pipeline entering hyperliquid, and how to price regulatory risk. Closes on the state of liquid funds and why activist investing isn't worth the headache.

A Julian Robertson Tiger blow-up arc from More Money Than God: trapped on the Yen, the $150M slam-long save, the LP carry-out at the dot com peak. Bitcoin running the Saylor entry, Hood ripping on the Trump accounts launch, Anthropic's Series H, Don Jr's drones flying on the WSJ headline, a Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk interview, and the inevitable Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Threadguy on why The Big Short ruined a generation of traders, today's crowdsourced kickchat portfolio as a top signal, and the Pope getting a $660K Ferrari EV. Plus the cold storage Bitcoin he almost moved into 10-year treasuries, the JP Morgan rumor on Vance, the X-FAB Silicon Foundries rip after a Serendipity tweet, and a sit-down with Nic Carter on robotics, AGI, quantum, and Crypto.

Nic Carter (Castle Island Ventures, prolific Bitcoin writer) joins on the same day he signed on as independent director at Robo Strategy. They cover his case that AGI has quietly arrived, the legendary CoreWeave angel investment that became his ticket into AI deep tech, the white-collar apocalypse hiding inside the K-shape, and where his odds sit on quantum breaking Bitcoin by 2035. Closes on the secretive Bitcoin Core dev scene, what a Satoshi coin heist actually looks like, and why he's still fighting the crypto war when most of his peers have rage-quit.

Back from the Memorial break with a pool hall hustle, the hobbymaxing thesis, and a confession on breaking the number one trading rule. Micron rips 20%, Ferrari unveils its Johnny Ive EV, a $5M Wemby rookie sells, and the Pope signs with Anthropic to publish his AI ethics letter.

Threadguy slides for Warren Buffett against Airmass, tries to long SWGAY into the AP Swatch giga-viral resale frenzy, and watches Robinhood get mogged by Hyperliquid in real time. Plus semis bloodbath one day after Airmass' $8K Micron call, MegaETH puts in the worst crypto chart of all time, and Leopold's missing 13F rugs the entire stream.

2:55 normies running up $400k on options6:30 getting recognized for my Zcash trade8:40 me vs Loracle in the orderbooks23:10 the f*ck you no entry pattern25:30 @bankless interview30:20 Selling a 62 ETH Punk for Zcash32:50 ETH leadership should care about price37:00 roaring kitty hacked live

David Hoffman (Bankless co-founder) returns to break down why he sold his 62 ETH CryptoPunk for Zcash, the ideological split with Vitalik on whether ETH should BE the power or be a check on it, and why he thinks Saylor selling Bitcoin is actually bullish for stretch. Plus the case for a top-100 re-rating (crypto Twitter pumps it then hands it off to Bitwise and Grayscale for boomer retirement portfolios), why DeFi needs a complete rewrite from an aeronautics-redundancy perspective after the Kelp DAO + AVE + Layer Zero cascade, and how Claude-powered guest prep is changing Bankless.

Thread breaks down Airmass's 6-month-silence Micron all-in tweet that's already up 43% off the post, watches CoffeeZilla get credit-mogged by Jeff Walton on the stretch-Ponzi debate, and confesses he forcefully drives himself crazy trading so he doesn't drive himself crazy on vacation. Closes with the cleanest "move to NYC if you're in finance" advice and why holding-only Bitcoin is blasphemous for a daily trader.

Thread argues every bear has flipped after the Iran shakeout (PTJ slamming stocks at ATH, Burry buying Lululemon) and lays out his 5-coin crypto thesis: only Bitcoin, privacy, perps, and private AI matter while alt-season is officially dead. Closes with hantavirus dismissed as a nothing burger and Ryan Cohen's eBay bloody-pig-mask scandal making the case for acquisition.

Threadguy opens with the easiest trades being the best ones, ties it to a Market Wizards zen-monk excerpt, then lays out why every influencer is about to pivot to financial content. He walks through how Walter Bloomberg got him at 4am with a fake Iran-war-over headline, why he's holding his Zcash trade through the chop, and brings on Compound founder Robert Leshner. Leshner gets into the Compound exploit lore, why he left to start Superstate, and how every product gets a Napster era before grandma uses it.