UBS On-Air: In the Now

While we remain constructive on semiconductors amid solid AI demand, recent market performance highlights the case for broader equity exposure. Strong earnings momentum across sectors and regions points to a wider set of opportunities for investors.

Markets are facing renewed pressure from geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and questions over AI investment returns. Investors should focus on portfolio resilience and strategies that can help manage downside risk while preserving long-term upside potential.

With equity markets near record highs, attention is turning to whether corporate earnings can continue to justify market valuations. As the AI investment cycle evolves and opportunities emerge across global markets, investors are also assessing the outlook for inflation, interest rates, the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—and what they could mean for markets and portfolios.

US Treasury yields have risen as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, but we expect yields to move lower over the coming quarters. In our view, current elevated yields offer an opportunity to add quality bonds for income, diversification, and potential capital gains.

Earnings from hyperscalers will be a key test for the AI trade as investors look for greater clarity on capex, revenue durability, and margin resilience. While we remain constructive on AI’s longer-term growth story, a balanced approach across and beyond the AI value chain remains important.

Hostilities in the Middle East are weighing on investor sentiment already weakened by the sell-off in chipmakers over the past week. But we maintain the view that equities have room to move up, supported by robust earnings strength.

Global stocks came under pressure this week amid a selloff in chipmakers and escalating tensions in the Middle East. We think strong earnings growth should continue to support global markets, and investors should seek diversified exposure to participate in market upside.

South Korea's equity benchmark has fallen more than 25% since its all-time high in June amid regulatory concerns and investor worries over the durability of the broader semiconductors rally. We retain a constructive view on the industry, but think selectivity is key. Investors should also ensure diversified exposure to AI.

We expect second-quarter earnings to deliver another strong set of results, with all sectors likely to report an increase in profits. Our forecast of 28% earnings growth for the S&P 500 is supported by strong AI investment, improving cyclical activity, and solid consumer spending.

Markets are on edge as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Investors will now look to June CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony for clues on the path of US interest rates. We expect inflation pressures to ease in the coming months, which should ultimately lead to lower bond yields.

Continued US-Iran tensions are testing markets, but there are ways investors can consider helping portfolios navigate uncertainty while staying positioned for potential upside.

The path toward a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran is proving to be bumpy, with President Trump saying further negotiations with Tehran were a "waste of time." The most effective method to navigate near-term volatility remains diversification, in our view. But with a diplomatic solution still likely, we expect global equities to move higher, bond yields to decline, and broad commodities to stay supported.

As investors assess the next phase of the AI growth story, we believe diversifying equity exposure remains key. We expect the next leg of stock gains to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.

We remain constructive on the AI theme, but the market narrative is gradually shifting from strong near-term growth to the durability of spending beyond 2027. Investors should ensure diversification and selectivity in their exposure.

Despite the recent decline in commodity prices, we believe fundamentals should provide support in the coming months. We also believe broad commodity exposure offers diversification, inflation hedging, and downside protection in a portfolio context.

Markets are looking to June’s payrolls today for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little indication. We maintain the view that current market conviction around Fed rate hikes is too aggressive and see an opportunity to add to short- and medium-maturity quality bonds.

Global equities delivered a strong performance in the second quarter, and we think the momentum can continue in the coming months. The next phase of the rally should, in our view, see a broadening of market leadership.

Investors have shifted some capital back into health care amid tech sector volatility, seeking both stability and growth. Recent policy changes around GLP-1s and breakthrough therapies are fueling new optimism for the sector’s outlook in the coming months.

We continue to like the semiconductor complex of the AI story, but recent market volatility has pointed to certain risks worth monitoring. The key for investors remains diversification, both within and beyond AI.

While oil may stay under pressure in the near term, we expect prices to recover over the coming months, as the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of shut-in production may prove slower than expected. We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure in a portfolio context.

Gold has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight months, but we think this offers an opportunity for underallocated investors to build strategic exposure. We believe the investment case for gold remains positive, as we believe the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the near term, and the US dollar should weaken as the year progresses. Gold has also historically provided diversification benefits in a portfolio context.

Risk sentiment weakened amid pressure on semiconductor stocks, but we believe the recent correction should be seen in the context of the strong rally in recent months. While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also expect that the next phase of stock gains will come from a broader range of opportunities.

We view current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term as too aggressive, as inflation should moderate in the coming months, growth may soften, and broader changes at the Fed could slow down policy reaction. We continue to see an attractive risk-return profile for short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

The window has swung back open for new IPOs and secondary offerings, with share issuance likely to reach a record high in dollar terms this year. But we do not think this will be challenging to absorb given the growth of the overall equity market.

The AI rally has been one of the defining features of markets in the first half of the year. While we think it can drive further gains, we also believe the rally will continue to broaden across the rest of the market. We think investors should stay invested, while keeping diversification at the center of portfolio construction

The FOMC held the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but the combination of higher inflation projections, a hawkish distribution of rate forecasts, and the removal of forward guidance points to a restrictive-for-longer policy stance.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady today, but markets will be watching Kevin Warsh's debut press conference as chair and his outlook on inflation and rates. We maintain the view that the Fed should resume easing next year, benefiting short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

An unexpected US intervention shows how quickly AI policy can shift from theory to tangible risk. With this year’s equity rally directly linked to AI demand expectations, we examine how a tighter US regulatory approach could impact AI spending, talent, and model leadership.

The US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with official signing scheduled later this week. Volatility may persist in the near term as markets assess the implementation and durability of the deal, but we maintain our view that resilient growth and robust earnings should continue to drive stocks higher. We continue to recommend investors hold a diversified portfolio across asset classes, sectors, and geographies.

Market swings may persist as geopolitics, rates, and funding questions collide, but the underlying buildout driving AI-linked equities remains intact, in our view. Investors should stay invested in the AI opportunity, while rotating exposure toward areas with clearer demand visibility and stronger earnings support.

US equities and bonds fell in tandem on Friday, as concerns over potential Fed rate hikes, equity issuance by Meta, Broadcom's disappointing AI revenue outlook, and a reversal in semiconductor stocks weighed on markets. However, after the recent rally, a pullback was expected. Despite renewed worries, we expect the rally to resume.

US stocks fell to their lowest level in over a month as a tech-led sell-off deepened, the war in Iran showed little signs of ending, and accelerating inflation intensified Federal Reserve hike worries. But we think near-term Fed hikes remain unlikely, AI fundamentals are still strong, and a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should become clearer. Investors should stay positioned for equity gains and ensure portfolio diversification.

US stocks fell on Tuesday after an earlier rise on optimism about an imminent US-Iran deal. While the path toward a resolution is likely to be uneven, our base case is that diplomacy ultimately prevails, allowing investors to refocus on resilient economic fundamentals and robust earnings growth in both the US and Europe.

Health care has traditionally been viewed as a defensive sector, but investors should not ignore the innovative growth opportunities it offers. Supported by technological advances and a structural shift in demographics, we favor global health care and hold a positive outlook on the Longevity theme.

Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we close out the series for 2025, Shane drops by for a Capitol Hill roundup as we cover developments surrounding Congressional votes on healthcare legislation, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Plus, some thoughts on renewed bipartisan efforts to ban Congressional stock trading. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by for a geopolitics roundup with updates on the latest developments with respect to the Russia-Ukraine War and Venezuela. We also review the priorities of Congress through year-end and into early 2026. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane joins to update on a variety of timely topics, including the implications of potential Election Day outcomes, the prospects for an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, along with the Supreme Court’s hearing on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane joins mid-week for an update on the US government shutdown, including a look at impacted services, and where negotiations stand to re-open the government. We also touch on recent developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, Shane drops by to explain the scope of impact, along with next steps with respect to negotiations. Plus, thoughts on yesterday’s Oval Office announcement related to drug pricing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by for a late-summer update with thoughts on recent and ongoing efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine War, actions taken by the Trump administration to reduce crime in Washington DC, and to preview the legislative agenda and tasks ahead for Congress upon their return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by to share the latest developments on trade, spanning Japan to the European Union. We also touch on efforts by both sides of the isle to redraw Congressional districts in states such as Texas, California, and New York. Plus, a look at why the August recess for Congress has commenced early, and what to watch out for when lawmakers return to Capitol Hill in September. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by to highlight the legislative focuses of Congress post One Big Beautiful Bill, including a look into “Crypto Week” which is currently taking place up on Capitol Hill. We also touch on the latest with respect to US trade policy and negotiations with the EU and Mexico. Plus, thoughts on the latest US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by to share the latest developments out of the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, along with notable domestic developments spanning progress on the One Big Beautiful Bill, and Federal response to recent occurrences of civil unrest. Plus, thoughts on the outcome of this week’s round of US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Kurt rejoins the conversation in studio to reflect on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, along with how markets have reacted - plus, thoughts on how the progression of trade negotiations (most notably with China) may progress in the weeks and months ahead. We also discuss investor concern stemming from the US fiscal outlook, and the path forward for the US budgetary situation. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the US Senate set to shortly weigh in on the “Big, Beautiful Bill”, Shane roadmaps the potential next-steps, along with the potential timing of arrival on President Trump’s desk. We also cover progress being made towards a Congressional stock trading ban, update on Russia-Ukraine talks, and weigh in on Wednesday’s notable trade developments. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by on a Monday to preview a busy week ahead, accounting for President Trump’s highly anticipated Middle East visit. We also spend time recapping the outcome of this past weekend’s trade negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China, along with other notable progress made recently on the trade front. Plus, and update as to where progress on Capitol Hill stands with respect to tax legislation. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane reflects on the first 100 days of the Trump administration, along with updates on where efforts and negotiations stand on Capitol Hill surrounding a substantial reconciliation bill. Plus, a look at current US-Ukraine relations and where efforts stand with Russia peace talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As US trade policy continues to evolve quickly, Shane drops by to update us on the latest, and what the near-term may consist of with respect to negotiations. We also discuss progress around the budget resolution up on Capitol Hill, and recap Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s White House visit earlier this week. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy