UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Technology equities are having one of their periodic convulsions—without any obvious economic driver. The South Korean market is at levels last seen in April. This underscores the speed of technology equities’ rise; that speed limits the correction’s economic consequences. Households are still likely to spend—cash stockpiles and the ability to reduce how much income has been saved, more than equity wealth effects, have been sustaining consumer spending.

As we approach the middle of the summer, investors continue to deal with a number of pesky market risks, including the prospect of the Fed hiking rates, a resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, a new wave of tariffs, and ongoing concerns about AI capex spending. Yet through all of that the S&P 500 has been relatively steady. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess the current market environment, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this episode of UBS On-Air, host Isaac Chota, Product Manager for Donor-Advised Funds at UBS, is joined by Michael Wilson from National Philanthropic Trust. Together, they explore how philanthropy can strengthen family bonds across generations and help families align their wealth with their values. Michael shares personal stories and practical insights on making charitable giving a meaningful part of financial planning, including how Donor-advised funds and strategic asset selection can maximize impact. Whether you’re new or a seasoned philanthropist, discover how giving can deepen relationships, engage the next generation, and create lasting legacies.

July has brought a powerful wave of new open AI models, highlighting how quickly the market is moving beyond reliance on a small group of closed frontier systems.July has brought a powerful wave of new open AI models, highlighting how quickly the market is moving beyond reliance on a small group of closed frontier systems. This episode explores what that shift means across the AI value chain—from infrastructure and foundation models to applications and tooling—and why greater competition among models could drive value both upstream in the enabling layer and downstream in applications. This episode explores what that shift means across the AI value chain—from infrastructure and foundation models to applications and tooling—and why greater competition among models could drive value both upstream in the enabling layer and downstream in applications.

The policy pattern of the trade war is echoed in the policy pattern of the ongoing Gulf war. In 2025, US threats over tariffs provoked market reactions, leading to a policy retreat in the face of those reactions. Escalating Gulf violence pushed oil prices over USD100/barrel, leading to a policy shift by the US. The risk with this process is that as investors anticipate a policy retreat, the market reaction becomes more muted over time and applies less pressure for policy change.

Leslie joins to spotlight recent market conditions and how they have impacted the repricing and recalibration of fixed income assets. We also reflect on the hawkish commentary delivered from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first press conference, and what will the Fed be focused on through year-end. Plus, a second-half fixed income market outlook, and a review of positioning recommendations. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by for a timely update on a variety of topics as it relates to Capitol Hill, including where Congress stands on passing a budget resolution for defense and farm aid, a potential vote on bi-partisan crypto legislation, and efforts to avoid another government shutdown. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

As investor interest in commodities has reached a multi-year high, Asset Allocation Strategist, Ian Spencer, joins to review commodity basics, evaluates various investment rationales for adding commodities to a portfolio, explores portfolio construction considerations including allocation size and funding approaches, and summarizes investment recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As the summer season continues, Burkhard shares his thoughts on recent trends across global equity markets by outlining the factors behind volatility and what might support a recovery. Plus, some takeaways from a recent visit to Qatar as the US-Iran conflict persists and oil is once again on the rise. We conclude with some final thoughts on the World Cup and the tournament’s outcome this past weekend.

Iran struck tankers attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, potentially undermining shipowners’ confidence in US protection. The Houthi struck at tankers in the Red Sea—this has always been a key area of vulnerability. Investors are likely to look for US conciliation as a de-escalation signal, and absent that have pushed oil prices higher.

Following the outperformance of munis during 1H26 relative to other US fixed income assets, Sudip and Jeannine join to share performance expectations for the balance of the year, and share how to think about positioning. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Inside Washington DC the current focus seems to be trade tariffs, although the affordability crisis continues to be the focus in the wider economy. US President Trump suggested US consumers of imported generic pharmaceuticals would have to pay a 100% tariff from August 2027, and 200% from August 2029. The US has notably higher health care costs relative to developed European economies, and such a cost would add further to US prices.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 15.07.26

US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on US importers of products from Canada, without exempting products covered by the latest iteration of the NAFTA trade deal. If implemented, the tax would probably push up US consumer prices quite quickly. However, markets offered a muted response—the Canadian dollar and US inflation-linked bonds remaining relatively calm. Investors seem inclined to discount or dismiss such threats.

As investors now operate within the AI economy, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas and Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, join to share a framework on how to navigate it. We also discuss how to assess the economic impacts of AI, along with a look at portfolio construction through an AI lens. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Semiconductors have seen a drop over the past month, raising the question of whether markets are starting to price in a real AI glut or simply reassessing a powerful rally. This episode explores why AI demand may prove more resilient than the recent sell-off suggests, where the real constraints are emerging across the infrastructure stack, and what that could mean for semiconductor stocks from here.

Violence has reignited in the Gulf, with Iran firing ballistic missiles at US military bases. Crude oil futures responded; Brent rose to over USD 90 per barrel. Of more political focus, Saturday’s US gasoline prices averaged almost USD 4 per US gallon. The geopolitical focus is whether the Red Sea route (taking about 7% of global oil supply) is attacked by Iranian allies.

Following a busy week up on Capitol Hill, Shane reflects on the testimonies of Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett before the House Appropriations Committee, along with the Senate confirmation hearings of three Trump administrations nominees. Plus, an update on the US-Iran conflict as military strikes remain ongoing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David updates on the three bull market growth drivers, shares expectations for the Q2 corporate earnings season, reviews positioning preferences and risk considerations. Plus, a look at performance of non-US equity markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh testified to Congress—at times sounding like a Bundesbank member, with a vehement denunciation of inflation. Warsh was keen to say the Fed was solely responsible for inflation—that is challenged by Fed research ascribing roughly 1ppt of last year’s inflation to US tariffs. Warsh also displayed a troubling fascination with the productivity pixie of artificial intelligence—technology is not a reliable driver of macroeconomic productivity, and believing that might result in policy mistakes.

US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well above that level—off its highs, but having risen recently.

Hostilities in the Middle East have flared up again, disrupting shipping and renewing concerns about energy prices, inflation, and global growth. But both the US and Iran still have powerful economic and political incentives to avoid a return to all-out war. Why does diplomacy remain the most likely endgame - and what could a lasting agreement mean for investors? In the latest episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Ulander are joined by UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan to explore the implications for US markets, Europe’s energy-sensitive economy, and opportunities across Asia and beyond.

Traditional IRAs can be powerful retirement savings vehicles, but they may not always be the most tax-efficient asset for beneficiaries to inherit. Ainsley Carbone and Justin Waring join to discuss one strategy that may help address that challenge - using IRA distributions to fund life insurance as part of a broader legacy plan. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Frank drops by for a performance update and outlook for the preferreds market, including a look at positioning considerations and recommendations, and what to be mindful of when it comes to the interest rate environment. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for free. Now Trump has declared it open for a 20% fee. Shipping data suggests there was less-than-universal belief in free safe passage through Hormuz on Monday. It is unlikely ships will go full steam ahead to take the same risks while paying a high tax. A 20% fee would be about 15 times the mooted Iranian charge, and (as a proportionate tax) would exaggerate future oil price moves.

Jason rejoins to weigh in on recent market activity and drivers, spanning geopolitics, to the Fed, to macro data. Plus, thoughts on this week’s key inflation data, Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the beginning of the Q2 corporate earnings season, and more. We end with guidance around portfolio positioning in consideration of all these factors. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Investors have responded with a muted reaction. Oil prices are up, but not in an economically meaningful way. Shipping traffic volumes seem to give more credibility to the Iranian version, but investors’ optimism bias remains. There is an assumption that the political pain of gasoline prices in the US (which have risen again recently) will justify expectations that the current situation will be resolved.

This episode explores what drives the variation in IPO performance. Drawing on 45 years of post-IPO data, it examines what separates the small group of major wealth-creating IPOs from the average new listing, which often disappoints. It highlights five signals that have historically helped identify stronger performers and considers how these characteristics can help investors assess where long-term value is most likely to emerge.

Shane drops by for a timely update on renewed strikes between the US and Iran, and how the conflict might evolve from here. We also touch on takeaways from this week’s annual NATO summit, and look at where Congress stands on the SAVE America Act. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher, to levels experienced when the memorandum of misunderstanding was signed (10% above pre-war levels). Markets question the strength of the US position, allowing the optimism bias to cling on. Global behavior adapted during the war, mitigating the economic damage of renewed hostilities.

The UK is once again in the spotlight, with another leadership transition as Keir Starmer steps down less than two years after winning a substantial majority and Andy Burnham emerges as the clear frontrunner. But with this being the seventh prime minister in a decade, questions are mounting about what’s driving this constant leadership turnover, how Brexit continues to shape the party system, and what it means for the UK’s policy direction. In this episode of Across the Pond, hosts Belinda Ulander and Christopher Swann are joined by Dean Turner, UK Economist at UBS, to discuss the underlying trends in British politics, what we know about Burnham’s agenda, as well as the implications for central bank policy, bond markets, sterling, and UK equities.

Kurt and Shane rejoin for a timely roundup of DC-related topics, including an inventory of legislative focuses of Congress (including a look at what may be achieved ahead of the summer recess), potential outcome scenarios of the US midterm elections in November (and what the markets are focusing on). Plus, reflections America 250 celebrations and American innovations over the course of its 250-year history. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, & Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US.

US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view US President Trump’s political position. US retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war level that consumers think of as a “fair” price.

Fresh off summer holiday travels across Nordic countries, Burkhard rejoins the podcast to reflect on his experiences, and weighs in on the condition of the region’s economies and markets. Plus, as the World Cup tournament rolls on, Burkhard shares thoughts on what athletes can teach leaders and investors.

Jeff and Barry join to provide reflections and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 2026 annual stress test results for US banks and financial institutions (through an equity and credit lens). Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings season for US financials. Featured are Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Politics can influence which economic data is considered important. Today’s US trade data is not economically significant, but in the trade tariff era it has assumed political importance. US exports should benefit from oil trade, but US consumers’ thirst for imports remains unquenched. This may feed into the tariff debate.

Bill Sterling serves as Global Strategist at GW&K Investment Management. Bill shares his thoughts on a range of factors top of mind for investors and that are influencing market momentum as we have reached the midpoint of 2026. We also cover a market outlook, and touch on positioning preferences. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Buttonwood tree, under which New York stockbrokers gathered in 1792, symbolizes the origin of a market that would expand far beyond its modest beginnings and eventually become part of a global financial system centered on the US dollar and shaped at Bretton Woods. Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas form UBS Chief Investment Office, explains the evolution and global impact of the US capital markets. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Defense spending is a focus as NATO leaders meet on Wednesday. Obviously, total defense spending is rising in most economies. Markets tend to get too excited about what that means for growth. Defense spending drips into the economy slowly. It will take the US more than three years to rebuild some of its missile stockpiles after the Gulf war, spreading the economic consequences.

The US employment report was a convenient reminder not to put too much emphasis onto a single unreliable data release. There were notable revisions, and the details showed swings in seasonal adjustments moving the figures in a rather maladjusted manner. The trends are still the same. In an uncertain policy environment, companies seem reluctant to hire, but are also not rushing to fire. The labor market situation does not make rate cuts urgent, but this plus the use of savings to pay for tariffs and gasoline prices does add some fragility to the US consumer.

On this week’s edition, Shane highlights how the United States of America has been celebrating its 250th birthday. We also review some of this week’s final opinions issued by the Supreme Court, along with take inventory of legislative items Congress is working to address ahead of the quickly approaching summer recess. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A review of the latest employment data and what it reveals about the health of the US labor market. Plus, a review and preview of other notable macro data points of interest. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the US not working tomorrow, we get June labor market data today. The level of inaccuracy in the data means the monthly changes should not be taken too seriously. The trends are still the same—not too much hiring, not too much firing. The general level of policy uncertainty over the past 18 months encouraged paralysis of corporate decision-making.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 18.06.26

At congressional confirmation hearings, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh famously denied being US President Trump’s sock puppet. Markets will scour Warsh’s comments today for any hint of hosiery. The desire to prove political independence may give a hawkish tone. Warsh already signaled a disinclination to offer policy guidance (despite the risk this causes market volatility, raising the cost of capital and weakening growth).

Bob Giangregorio is a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Spectrum Asset Management. Bob joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

The narrative of today’s generally “second tier” data releases is of a global economy that is resilient if somewhat dull. This might seem remarkable in the face of war, oil price gyrations, and unpredictable US policy. However, middle-income consumers in developed economies began this year in a solid position. Oil and the US economy have become less important over time. People are very good at adapting to a crisis.

As the second half of 2026 soon approaches, Jason spends time this week outlining CIO’s macro and market expectations (including expectations for Fed policy under Chair Warsh), and reviews positioning recommendations along with key messages. Plus, a look at the drivers behind recent market volatility. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This episode explores what historical US innovation can teach us about the trajectory of AI CapEx. Drawing on the 250 years of US innovation series, it looks at three key lessons from past capital cycles, from railroads to electrification to the internet. It highlights how innovation cycles tend to follow a similar pattern, how competition drives investment dynamics, and where value ultimately emerges in the application layer.

Oil futures prices have been largely indifferent to the weekend’s events in the Gulf and Russia. Investors managed to contain their surprise at Iran and the US trading military strikes. US policy has been highly volatile in several areas over the past 18 months, preparing investors for instability in implementing the Versailles memorandum. Russian President Putin’s admission that Ukrainian drone strikes might force Russia to import more fuel is unlikely to change global demand dramatically (reserves are being used for now).