Very True by Verissimo

In this episode of Very True, Alex reconnects with old friend Nic Poulos, early stage investor at Euclid and former cofounder of Bowery, to dissect how venture capital evolved from a quirky cottage industry into a massive industrial complex. Nic shares his journey from the early days of New York’s seed ecosystem back when writing a $250k check into a B2B SaaS company was considered a novel idea to today's highly concentrated, hyper competitive landscape.Alex and Nic dive deep into the evolution of vertical software, exploring how TAMs expanded beyond anyone's predictions and how AI is now unlocking massive services budgets. They debate the shifting cultural narrative of the "founder career path," the real world limits of non technical founders "vibe coding" their own enterprise tools, and the looming DPI dilemma hanging over the venture asset class. They also pull no punches on the current state of SPVs and the reality of fund math in a polarized fundraising market.Episode Highlights[11:03] Tech as an Economic Layer: Nic and Alex discuss how technology transitioned from being a distinct investment sector to a foundational layer of the entire economy, and how that shifted VC from a niche asset class to Wall Street's darling.[14:19] The "Founder" Career Path: Is entrepreneurship a calling driven by a need to solve a persistent problem, or has it just become another corporate ladder? Alex and Nic discuss the pros and cons of the mainstreamification of startup culture.[24:14] Vertical SaaS 101: Why the historical knocks against vertical software, small TAMs and niche markets, turned out to be wrong, and how superior CAC dynamics and AI are opening up blue ocean opportunities.[30:06] The New Build vs. Buy: With the rise of Claude and ChatGPT, everyone is suddenly a developer. Nic and Alex explore the limits of "vibe coding" and why complex, enterprise ready software will always require specialization of labor.[39:35] The DPI Dilemma: A candid look at the venture liquidity crunch. Nic breaks down the regulatory and cultural hurdles of the modern IPO window, the role of strategics, and why the math just doesn't work for mega funds playing the fee game.[49:29] The Problem with SPVs: Why the current craze of hired gun SPVs creates massive misalignment with LPs, and why founders and investors need to focus on absolute value creation over manufactured markups.Full Chapter List[00:00] Introduction & High School Flashbacks[02:14] Nic’s Journey: From Tech Banking to Launching Bowery in NY[04:32] When Investment Banking Ruled vs. The Era of the Founder[07:28] Shooting Fish in a Barrel: The 2014 Series A Landscape[11:03] Software Eating the GDP & The Specialization of SaaS[14:19] Entrepreneurship as a Career Path vs. Earned Insights[21:49] Venture Capital: From Cottage Industry to Industrial Complex[24:14] The Vertical vs. Horizontal Software Playbook[28:40] AI's Expansion of Market Potential and Services Budgets[30:06] Build vs. Buy in the Era of Vibe Coding[36:22] The Power of the "From Industry" Founder[39:35] Where is the DPI? Exploring Exits, IPOs, and M&A[44:31] Fund Math: $10M Micro Funds vs. $10B Mega Funds[49:29] SPV Misalignment and the Flight to QualityLinks & ResourcesEuclid: https://www.euclid.vc/ Verissimo Ventures: https://verissimo.vc/Nic Poulos on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/npoulos/Alex Oppenheimer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexoppenheimer/ About Very TrueHosted by Alex Oppenheimer, Very True by Verissimo Ventures explores the honest, unvarnished stories of founders and the real problems they are solving. We look past the hype to find the truth in technology and entrepreneurship.

In this solo episode of Very True, Alex tackles one of the hottest and most scrutinized topics in tech today: the elusive business model of Artificial Intelligence.Right now, almost every major AI company raising billions is running a familiar playbook. It’s a spectacular playbook mastered by Uber: raise an unimaginable amount of money, lose it on purpose to change consumer behavior, and turn the prices up once you own the market. But Alex points out that while everyone is quoting the Uber playbook, nobody is copying the exact piece that actually made it work. By holding Uber’s historical financials up against today's AI landscape, Alex breaks down the difference between a subsidy that is a strategic investment and a subsidy that is just a prayer, revealing why the destination for AI keeps moving. And what does it all depend on? Well-understood Unit Economics that match the business model.  Episode Highlights:[00:00] The Uber Playbook and the Missing Piece: Alex introduces the core strategy driving AI fundraising today and highlights the stark difference between an unoptimized business and an misunderstood business. [01:05] The Simplicity of Uber’s Unit Economics: Breaking down Uber on a single slide. Alex explains how marketplaces balance supply and demand at a local level, creating a knowable mathematical machine where Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) could be recovered in five months before printing pure profit. [03:45] The 20-Billion-Dollar Land Grab: A look back at Uber’s aggressive fundraising and financial journey from its 2019 IPO ($13 billion in revenue at an $8.5 billion operating loss) to its massive 2025 turnaround ($52 billion in revenue and $9.8 billion in free cash flow) fueled by behavior change and a shift toward delivery. [08:15] AI's Reality Check - Subsidizing in the Dark: Why the Uber playbook is breaking down for AI labs. Alex discusses the lack of unit economic clarity, the challenge of defining an AI "unit" (is it a token, a query, or an agent?), crumbling switching costs for users, and why AI companies are subsidizing toward a destination they cannot yet draw. [13:10] Cooking Up a New Model: Alex shares how he is using his mechanical engineering background to build a predictive, pressure-tested CAD model for AI unit economics rather than just feeling through the darkness. Links & Resources:Verissimo Ventures: https://verissimo.vc/Follow Alex on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-oppenheimer/Uber Financials: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19cNzPABWoB8YY8xRHA9UI6xyGdyOEFsZvXQUipwvKWg/edit?usp=sharingUnit Economics Overview: https://www.loom.com/share/aaddd4018b0a47cc80c6dd64e00846fc  Cal Newport's AI Reality Check: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4eV36PZCnUxc3TxSybfVN3?si=75131e6cd91147d9 About Very True: Hosted by Alex, Very True by Verissimo Ventures explores the honest, unvarnished stories of founders and the real problems they are solving. We look past the hype to find the truth in technology and entrepreneurship.