Vibes & Benchmarks

SpaceX may be the weirdest AI IPO story of the year. Ali and Josh talk through why the "space + Elon + AI" story may not make sense on its own, why the real bull case might be chips, and how OpenAI and Anthropic are using policy language to shape the market around themselves.V&B covers SpaceX's retail IPO pitch, Elon's reality distortion field, Anthropic's pause plan, OpenAI's proposed government stake, recursive self-improvement, AI loops, and the point where code review starts becoming "Did the AI make it good?"Ali Rohde is the co-founder and Managing Partner at Outset Capital.• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-rohde-90719970/• X: https://x.com/RohdeAli• Website: https://alirohde.com• Outset Capital: https://outsetcapital.comJosh Albrecht is the CTO of Imbue and a partner at Outset Capital.• X: https://x.com/joshalbrecht• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshalbrecht• Website: https://joshalbrecht.com• Imbue: https://imbue.com

Co-hosts Ali Rohde and Josh Albrecht debate the hot topics that emerged this week including Bernie Sander's bill to give the public a 50% public ownership stake in Anthropic and OpenAI, whether frontier labs have lasting product-market fit, how AI is making us stupider, and why AI can make workers more valuable in the short term — until AI gets so good and companies have extracted all the domain knowledge needed they too are replaced.00:31 Bernie Sanders wants the public to own 50% of AI. If Bernie's proposal isn't right, what counterproposal are frontier labs like OpenAI, Anthropic putting forward?04:07 If unemployment stats don't yet show the effects of significant job loss, it too early for AI labs to work on UBI?06:12 Do Anthropic and OpenAI have product-market fit. If so, will it last?08:19 Who actually pays for all those tokens?09:45 Why the AI "token shock" headlines may be bullish for the labs12:28 "Why am I paying you to say make it good?"14:32 Is AI making us stupider?17:34 How to use AI without losing your craft19:23 Jevons paradox applied to token spend20:36 Is literally anyone actually working less hard because of AI?Ali Rohde is the cofounder and Managing Partner at Outset Capital.• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-rohde-90719970/• X: https://x.com/RohdeAli• Website: https://alirohde.com• Outset Capital: https://outsetcapital.comJosh Albrecht is the CTO of Imbue and a partner at Outset Capital.• X: https://x.com/joshalbrecht• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshalbrecht• Website: https://joshalbrecht.com• Imbue: https://imbue.comFollow us on:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@OutsetCapitalSubstack: https://outsetcapital.substack.com

Outset Capital GPs Ali Rohde and Josh Albrecht discuss what happened in AI this week.This week: George Hotz declares agents can't program, why macOS gets worse before it gets better, whether "100% written by Claude Code" is a flex or a red flag, the SpaceX S-1 and the case against a $2T valuation, Uber admitting AI token spend is "harder to justify," AI solving Erdős problems, the Pope's surprisingly good AI take, why Eric Schmidt got booed at graduation, OpenAI's reported IPO, Anthropic's 23,000 vulnerabilities, and whether AI is making us more or less safe.Josh Albrecht is the CTO of Imbue and a partner at Outset Capital.• X: https://x.com/joshalbrecht• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshalbrecht• Website: https://joshalbrecht.com• Imbue: https://imbue.comAli Rohde is the cofounder/Managing Partner at Outset Capital.• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-rohde-90719970/• X: https://x.com/RohdeAli• Website: https://alirohde.com• Outset Capital: https://outsetcapital.comOutset Capital is a San Francisco–based pre-seed and seed fund investing in AI, devtools, robotics, and the future of work. Josh Albrecht is CTO of Imbue and a partner at Outset; he spends in the hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on tokens, runs his own coding harnesses at Imbue, and has very spicy opinions about where the rest of the industry is wasting its money.

Outset Capital GPs Ali Rohde and Josh Albrecht discuss what happened in AI this week.Outset Capital is a San Francisco–based pre-seed and seed fund investing in AI, devtools, robotics, and the future of work. The three GPs are Ali Rohde (Managing Partner), Kanjun Qiu (CEO of Imbue), and Josh Albrecht (CTO of Imbue). Josh spends in the hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on tokens, runs his own recursively self-improving coding harnesses at Imbue, and has very spicy opinions about where the rest of the industry is wasting its money.This week: why everyone is quietly switching from Claude Code to Codex, what Anthropic's "200 credit" reframe actually means for developers, why Google is positioned to outlast Anthropic and OpenAI long-term, what it means that two companies just captured 89% of $80 billion in AI revenue, whether Anthropic at $1 trillion can actually keep climbing, how Effective Altruism accidentally built Anthropic, why Anthropic's 2028 China paper makes no sense, and the cold case for distillation as a moral right.Josh Albrecht is the CTO of Imbue and a GP at Outset Capital.• X: https://x.com/joshalbrecht• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshalbrecht • Website: https://joshalbrecht.com/• Imbue: https://imbue.comAli Rohde is the cofounder/Managing Partner at Outset Capital.• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-rohde-90719970 • X: https://x.com/RohdeAli• Website: https://alirohde.com• Outset Capital: https://outsetcapital.com

Outset Capital GPs Ali Rohde and Josh Albrecht discuss what happened in AI this week.Josh spends in the hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on tokens, runs his own recursively self-improving coding harnesses at Imbue, and has very spicy opinions about where the rest of the industry is wasting its money.This week: why data centers in space are dumb, whether open source becomes the Linux of AI, how to responsibly spend $300K+ a year in tokens, what agents look like for non-engineers, and which moats actually survive once software gets flat.Josh Albrecht is the CTO of Imbue and a GP at Outset Capital.• X: https://x.com/joshalbrecht• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshalbrecht/• Website: https://joshalbrecht.com/• Imbue: https://imbue.comAli Rohde is the cofounder/Managing Partner at Outset Capital.• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-rohde-90719970/• X: https://x.com/RohdeAli• Website: https://alirohde.com• Outset Capital: https://outsetcapital.com