Wharton Moneyball

Is this NFL season more wide open than it appears?Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, and Kevin Cole, Data Scientist at PFF, use football analytics to examine the season ahead. Burke explains how tracking data is changing the way teams measure pass protection and pressure, while Cole breaks down quarterback projections, team strength, and why the league's top contenders may be closer together than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The road to the College Football Playoff is not as straightforward as a preseason ranking suggests.Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and creator of SP+, breaks down the analytics shaping the college football season. He examines why roster turnover creates a wider range of outcomes, how schedule strength affects playoff chances, the difference between the SEC and Big Ten, and the teams best positioned to contend. He also shares what his season simulations reveal about the title race and why a few unexpected teams could break through. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What happens when college football players can make more money by staying in school than by entering the NFL?Steven Godfrey, college football journalist and co-host of Yahoo's College Football Enquirer, examines the financial incentives reshaping college football. He discusses NIL deals, transfer rules, eligibility loopholes, and why former NFL players attempting to return to college football could test the sport's limits.Godfrey also breaks down the Big Ten and SEC, coaching pressure at USC and Michigan, conference depth, playoff paths, and why Notre Dame and Ohio State stand out in the national championship picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why are today's MLB pitchers harder to hit than ever?Adam Ottavino, former 15-year MLB reliever and current ESPN analyst, explains how pitch-tracking data, high-speed cameras, and personalized pitching labs reshaped his own career and changed player development across baseball. He breaks down how pitchers design new pitches, use bat-tracking data to attack hitters, and adapt their strategy from pitch to pitch.Ottavino also examines why pitching may have gained an edge over hitting, how teams use data to plan pitch selection, the limits of velocity, automated ball-strike challenges, and what a temporary velocity drop can mean for a pitcher such as Paul Skenes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Which NFL teams are the numbers backing before the 2026 season begins?Aaron Schatz, National NFL Analyst at ESPN and Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy, explains why the Houston Texans stand out in the AFC and why the Seattle Seahawks project as one of the league's strongest teams. He breaks down the Rams' Super Bowl outlook, the Bills' defense, the Eagles' path through the NFC East, and the teams that could surprise or regress.Schatz also explores how DVOA-based forecasts account for quarterback performance, coaching changes, injuries, schedules, and the balance of offense, defense, and special teams. Plus, why even the best projections leave plenty of room for the chaos of an NFL season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What if baseball’s most trusted pitching limit is more habit than science? Travis Sawchik, baseball analytics writer and author of Big Data Baseball and The MVP Machine, breaks down why pitch counts can miss the real stress on a pitcher’s arm, how workload units and acute-to-chronic ratios offer a better view of fatigue, and why teams may need to rethink how they build pitching capacity.The conversation also covers MLB trade deadline strategy, the Dodgers’ title odds, the Brewers’ risk calculus, when teams should chase variance instead of average gains, Baker Mayfield’s recent production compared with Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens’ coaching changes, Saquon Barkley’s workload, and college football playoff storylines. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can the Philadelphia 76ers turn a roster featuring LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, and VJ Edgecombe into a championship team?Basketball analytics pioneer and ESPN data scientist Dean Oliver joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine how Philadelphia might distribute possessions among so many high-usage players, whether LeBron can succeed as a point forward, and who should control the ball in critical late-game situations. The conversation also explores three-point shooting, defensive concerns, and why analytics can measure player performance more easily than it can predict chemistry and fit.Plus, the hosts discuss the enduring appeal of the Baseball Hall of Fame and the arrival of corporate jersey sponsorships in college football. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The right limits can lead to better ideas and better performance.David Epstein, bestselling author of The Sports Gene, Range, and Inside the Box: How Constraints Make Us Better, joins Wharton Moneyball to explore how constraints can strengthen creativity, focus, and decision-making.Epstein discusses the value of tight briefs and rapid prototypes, why first ideas are not always the best ideas, and why young athletes may benefit from playing multiple sports before specializing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What if one of soccer’s most important analytics metrics is missing some of the most dangerous moments in a match?Recorded live with students from the Wharton Moneyball Academy, Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. student and member of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team, explains the limitations of expected goals and the development of XG+, a new approach that accounts for both the probability of a shot being taken and the likelihood of it becoming a goal. He discusses how player tracking data can reveal opportunities that traditional XG misses, why creating shooting opportunities may be more predictive than finishing ability, and how advanced metrics could help teams better evaluate player performance and transfer value. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ravi Ramineni, Head of Analytics for the LA Galaxy, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to break down the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup, discuss how analytics shapes player evaluation and front-office decision-making, predict the tournament's favorites and dark horses, and is followed by conversations on Serena Williams' Wimbledon return, and notable MLB trends. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Neil Paine, sports data journalist and former FiveThirtyEight contributor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss the New York Knicks’ surprising title run, the Carolina Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup victory, the role of luck and player interactions in team success, and what early World Cup results reveal about the limits and strengths of sports analytics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ryan O'Hanlon, ESPN staff writer, author of Net Gains, and Syracuse University instructor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to analyze the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, assess the favorites and dark horses, evaluate the outlook for the U.S. Men's National Team, and explain how analytics-driven innovations such as set pieces and long throw-ins are transforming soccer, before Cade Massey, Adi Wyner, and Shane Jensen discuss the spread of analytics across sports, playoff unpredictability, tournament design, and the evolving impact of NIL on college athletics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Greg Bond, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Americas at Man Group, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss research on skill, luck, competitive depth, and predictive analytics across professional sports leagues, while Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner break down the NHL Stanley Cup Final, NBA Finals, NCAA championships, and innovative coaching strategies reshaping modern competition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi discuss NHL playoff hockey, expected goals models, statistical limits in measuring player performance, and how sports like hockey, soccer, baseball, and football differ in the way win probability builds and shifts during competition. Jay Jaffe, senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook, and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. joins the Moneyball team to break down early MLB season surprises, debate modern Hall of Fame standards for pitchers, explain the JAWS. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ben Alamar, Author of Sports Analytics: A Guide for Managers, Coaches, and Other Decision Makers?, joins the Wharton Moneyball crew to analyze Victor Wembanyama’s playoff performances, explain advanced defensive metrics, debate NBA draft evaluation methods, and reflect on championship-building strategies across today’s NBA. The team also explores the “hot hand” phenomenon, debates managerial impact in baseball, analyzes NHL playoff momentum, and examines why unpredictability makes golf and tennis so compelling for sports analytics fans. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tyrel Stokes, Senior Manager of Hockey Analytics at Teamworks and a statistician specializing in causal inference, joins the team to break down the Stanley Cup Playoffs, explain how NHL teams use analytics and tracking data for player evaluation and strategy, and explore how emerging technologies like Hawkeye and AI could transform hockey analysis, while the hosts also examine tennis betting odds, MLB home run milestones, and the role of probability across sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Broadie, Carson Family Professor of Business at Columbia Business School, joins Wharton Moneyball to discuss how strokes gained transformed golf analytics and ranking systems, while Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, and Adi Weiner analyze MLB challenge strategies, team overperformance, and new methods for evaluating roster depth in hockey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Richard Thaler, Nobel Laureate and Professor at the University of Chicago, and Benjamin Robinson, Founder and CEO of Grinding the Mocks, join the Wharton Moneyball team to analyze how cognitive biases, flawed valuation frameworks, and emerging data models shape NFL draft strategies and impact team decision-making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Micah McCurdy—mathematician, creator of HockeyViz, and hockey analytics expert—joins Eric Bradlow, Adi Wyner, and Shane Jensen to discuss simulation and player-level modeling, alongside broader analysis of MLB trends, NBA title odds, and notable statistical performances across sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jeehae Lee, founder and CEO of Sportsbox.ai, joins the Moneyball team to explore Rory McIlroy’s Masters victory while analyzing how advanced motion capture, data analytics, and AI are reshaping player development, performance evaluation, and talent identification in golf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sam Fuld, Vice President and General Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss his transition from MLB player to executive and how analytics, player development, and business strategy drive success. Cade, Eric and Shane also analyze recent the college basketball finals, NHL playoff races, and Masters Tournament storylines. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor David Henkin, a historian of American culture and author of Out of the Ballpark, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine how baseball’s history, statistical evolution, and fan engagement reveal a complex, ever-changing sport that defies any single interpretation. Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi also discuss early data and strategy implications of the automated ball-strike system in Major League Baseball while also analyzing tournament dynamics and competitive balance in NCAA March Madness. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Tulski, Head of Hockey Operations for the Carolina Hurricanes, joins the Moneyball team to explains how analytics, roster construction, and organizational philosophy influence performance, player evaluation, and playoff outcomes in the NHL. Cade, Shane, and Adi also discuss the dominance of teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, the debate over salary caps and spending floors, and how analytics and labor negotiations may shape the future of Major League Baseball. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brandt Tilis, Executive Vice President for Football Operations for the Carolina Panthers, joins the show to break down NFL roster construction, draft strategy, and the economics of quarterback contracts. He explains how teams balance analytics, film evaluation, and salary cap constraints. In the second half, the hosts discuss the intensity of the World Baseball Classic, automated strike zones, and surprising NHL playoff races. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Pomeroy, college basketball statistician and founder of KenPom, joins Wharton Moneyball to break down tempo-free efficiency ratings, the four factors (shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws), and how he evaluates prediction accuracy and calibration across a full season. Plus, Eric, Shane, and Adi discuss what caught their eye in sports — from World Baseball Classic odds and preseason workload questions to tennis dominance and what makes today’s stars so statistically extraordinary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Theo Epstein, Senior Advisor and part owner of Fenway Sports Group and former executive with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, explains how integrating analytics with scouting built championship organizations, how reforms like the pitch timer reshaped the pace of play, and how Major League Baseball can reenergize its national appeal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Josh Rawitch, President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, joins Eric, Shane, and Cade to explore how Cooperstown preserves baseball history, adapts to analytics and evolving standards of excellence, and prepares for America’s 250th anniversary while shaping the future of the game’s most iconic institution. Plus, the Moneyball team analyzes standout moments from the Winter Olympics—including three-on-three hockey and mixed doubles curling—while also examining NHL goaltending streaks and Major League Baseball preseason projections that raise broader questions about league parity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ben Alamar—former NBA analytics executive with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, and author of Sports Analytics: A Guide for Coaches, Managers, and Other Decision Makers—joins Wharton Moneyball to break down emerging NBA storylines, the unintended consequences of draft lottery reform, bold alternatives to tanking, and the case for analytics trailblazer Dean Oliver’s induction into the Basketball Hall of Fame. Cade, Eric, and Adi also explore statistical evidence of Olympic figure skating bias, debate event proliferation in skiing and speed skating, unpack the Los Angeles Lakers’ Pythagorean paradox, and assess historic performance runs by athletes such as Mikaela Shiffrin and Scottie Scheffler. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Craig O'Shannessy, tennis strategist, analyst for multiple Grand Slams, and New York Times contributor, joins the show to discusses how data-driven decision-making, underused tactics like serve-and-volley, and coachability separate today’s champions from the rest of the field. Cade, Eric, and Shane also analyze Seattle’s defensive-driven win in Super Bowl LX, reassess quarterback ceilings under pressure, and connect those insights to Olympic tournament design and the role of randomness in elite sports outcomes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Michael Lopez, Senior Director of Football Data and Analytics at the NFL, joins the Moneyball team to explain the use of causal inference and drive simulations in shaping the modern game of football. Plus, Eric and Adi explore the mathematical phenomenon of regression to the mean and how it applies to the unprecedented career trajectories of athletes like Carlos Alcaraz and Shohei Ohtani. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor and quantitative analyst, discusses the rise of prediction markets, comparing them to traditional sportsbooks while exploring liquidity, market-making, automation, and the evolving edge for sophisticated bettors. Plus, the Moneyball team has a wide-ranging sports analytics discussion covering Super Bowl matchup expectations, controversial coaching decisions, quarterback perception biases, and key storylines shaping the Australian Open. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ty Hildenbrandt, co-host of The Solid Verbal college football podcast, joins Cade, Adi, and Eric to explore how sports analytics—from evaluating Indiana’s national championship run to in-game decision-making, quarterback development, coaching philosophy, and the transfer portal—are reshaping the future of college football. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Neil Payne, sports analytics writer and creator of a leading sports Substack, discusses playoff parity, coaching impact, home-field advantage, and how analytics can—and can’t—explain who ultimately wins in today’s NFL and college football postseason. Cade, Eric, Shane & Adi also analyze hockey plus-minus limitations, Grand Slam betting dominance, Baseball Hall of Fame probabilities, and how NIL deals and the transfer portal are transforming competitive balance in college football. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

ESPN National Football Analyst Seth Walder, and Steven Godfrey, college football writer for Yahoo Sports and The Washington Post and co-host of the College Football Enquirer podcast, join Cade and Shane to examine the NFL playoff landscape through advanced metrics and unpack the College Football Playoff’s surprises, transfer portal strategy, and evolving SEC–Big Ten balance of power. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner examine how AI-driven metrics, model calibration, and Bayesian approaches inform quarterback evaluation, team upsets, and the evolving limits of sports analytics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aaron Schatz, Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy and founder of Football Outsiders, joins Eric Bradlow to explore how DVOA and play-by-play analytics challenge conventional narratives about the 2025 NFL season, conference strength, playoff probabilities, and the growing influence of data in awards voting. Plus, Eric walks through real-world examples of using generative AI to forecast NBA win totals, college football playoff probabilities, and NFL Super Bowl odds, highlighting how modern models apply Bayesian reasoning, betting markets, and simulation-based analytics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and creator of SP+, Bill Connelly, joins Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi to break down first-round playoff games, assess championship probabilities, and explain how analytics shape expectations in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Moneyball team also discusses the end of AFC quarterback dominance, and what today’s parity means for teams, windows, and dynasties across football. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this “Best of 2025” compilation, Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner revisit top moments with Google Sports Trends Fanalyst Annanya Raghavan, NFL veteran and Athletes.org founder Brandon Copeland, bestselling baseball biographer Jane Leavy, and ESPN analyst Dean Oliver, showcasing their insights on search-driven fan engagement, athlete empowerment, the future of baseball, and analytics’ growing influence across the NBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kevin Cole, proprietor of the Unexpected Points newsletter and former Pro Football Focus analyst, joins Eric Bradlow and Cade Massey, to explain how predictive modeling, adjusted scores, and power rankings reveal deeper insights into team performance amid one of the NFL’s most unpredictable seasons. Eric and Cade also break down college football playoff scenarios, potential conference shakeups, and remarkable early-season performances in both the NHL and NBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Bradlow and Adi Wyner examine surprising NBA and NFL performance patterns while highlighting the innovative sports analytics research conducted by students—including advancements in expected-goals modeling, rugby decision analytics, and tennis serve evaluation—showcasing how data science and AI are reshaping modern sports analysis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Neil Payne, freelance data journalist, analyst, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss current debates in baseball WAR, surprising developments in the NBA, the evolution of quantitative storytelling, and how emerging stars like Connor Bedard and innovative teams such as the Los Angeles Rams illustrate shifting dynamics across major sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Eric Bradlow, Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner explore how advanced analytics are influencing modern sports—from reshaping baseball’s Gold Glove selections to refining NFL power rankings and playoff projections—while dissecting how the new 12-team College Football Playoff format heightens uncertainty and reshapes championship probabilities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dean Oliver, ESPN sports analyst, joins Adi Wyner, Shane Jensen, and Cade Massey to explore Victor Wembanyama’s game-changing impact on defense, the development curve of elite rookies, and how analytics are influencing strategy across the NBA—from the Spurs’ ceiling to the Lakers’ evolving dynamics and the rise of data-driven player evaluation. Cade, Adi, and Shane also unpack the analytics behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s World Series dominance, the Carolina Panthers’ surprising success, and NFL trade logic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and author, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, and Shane Jensen to discuss his innovative “Chaos Superfecta” approach, the growing role of uncertainty in college football analytics, and how factors like NIL, transfers, and conference realignment are transforming the game’s competitive balance. Plus, Eric and Shane analyze one of the longest World Series games in history, discuss Shohei Ohtani’s extraordinary two-way performance and his place among baseball’s all-time greats, and reflect on how today’s game and analytics are redefining greatness across sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jane Leavy, known for her bestselling biographies of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, and Sandy Koufax, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss her latest book Make Me Commissioner: I Know What’s Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It, sharing her insights on how analytics have altered the sport’s rhythm, storytelling, and fan experience—and what reforms could restore baseball’s enduring appeal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wharton's Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner debate Bill Belichick’s legacy in the post-Brady era, explore how analytics have reshaped baseball strategy, and speak with Dan Szymborski—Senior Writer at FanGraphs and creator of the ZiPS projection system—about forecasting player performance and team success in today’s evolving sports landscape. They also analyze the remarkable victory of 204th-ranked tennis player Valentin Vacherot in a Masters 1000 tournament, using insights from sports analytics and probability theory to uncover what his unexpected win reveals about talent, randomness, and ranking systems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Daniel Beringer, Global Head of Technology and Innovation and Global Sponsorships at SAP, and Chris Foster, Vice President of Digital Business Development at the NHL, join Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss how their decade-long partnership leverages analytics, AI, and real-time data to enhance coaching decisions, streamline front-office management, and advance sustainability initiatives across the league. Plus, Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi break down an eventful week in sports—from a penalty-filled Panthers-Lightning preseason game to unpredictable MLB playoff outcomes and the emergence of young NFL quarterbacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Smoliga, Professor in the Department of Rehabilitation Sciences and Director of Research for the Doctor of Physical Therapy Program at Tufts University School of Medicine, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss the quest for a women’s sub-four-minute mile, the influence of super shoes and other technologies, and how marketing, science, and athletic performance intersect on the world stage. Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi also dive into the evolving playoff structures in Major League Baseball, the statistical weight of home-field advantage, and current storylines in the NFL and college football, blending analytics with real-time sports narratives. Plus, in an overtime interview, Cade and Eric speak with Joseph LaMagna, analyst at Fried Egg Golf, about the Ryder Cup, including the role of pairings, course setup, crowd behavior, and the contrasting approaches of Team USA and Team Europe in leveraging data and preparation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Annanya Raghavan, Sports Trends Fanalyst on the Google Trends team, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, and Shane Jensen to share how search data is used to understand and highlight fan engagement, with a particular focus on the WNBA’s growing popularity and the broader role of analytics in capturing cultural moments in sports. David Dase, Head of the Southeast Region and Global Co-Head of the Sports Franchise in Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs, joins the show to discuss how the firm is shaping the future of sports as an asset class, from financing teams and arenas to investing in sports-adjacent businesses, highlighting market growth, institutional capital trends, and the increasing importance of brand and fan engagement. Then Cade, Eric and Shane examine the upcoming introduction of automated strike zone challenges in baseball, the game theory behind late-game NFL decisions, and Andrew Percival’s data-driven college football rankings, offering a wide-ranging conversation on how analytics and strategy are reshaping modern sports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.