PODCAST · business
Whipsawed
by Michael Melissinos
The podcast of trend following fund manager Michael Melissinos mikemelissinos.substack.com
Episodes
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66: Review of the Markets - Coronavirus Curveball Edition
Mike Melissinos is back from a long podcasting break to review the markets - stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. There's a lot happening right now with a possible looming recession, government bond yields going back to all-time lows and the recent Coronavirus outbreak in China. Mike gives…
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65: Over-Optimizing Your Investing Approach Leads to Death
We see pickiness permeating across society today. We don't like being wrong or feeling dumb. We think we can prepare for every little thing that comes our way. MLB teams are experiencing the pitfalls of over-optimization. Instead of giving batters as many at-bats as possible, they optimize for…
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64: Hold Your Investment Manager Accountable
Ask questions to learn how your manager and his or her strategy makes decisions each day. It's important to learn about how the strategy is going to behave before you invest in it. You cannot expect to know how it will perform since that is largely up to the markets, and we cannot control them.…
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63: Current Sentiment of the Stock Market
Bearishness across the board in a number of sentiment surveys and indicators. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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62: Priorities of a Fund Manager
Communicate well, especially the value proposition and generate performance. Done. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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61: Two Major Risks of Index Funds
...concentrated risk in one asset class and poor loss-control tactics. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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60: For the Love of It
Some get the result they want, and stop working. Those in for the love, never stop regardless of the results they get - but they tend to get the best results. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...
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59: Improvements Don't Always Work
“Improving” the strategy typically serves as a self-correcting mechanism to remind the manager to stick to his/her philosophy and strategy, not to change it or “adapt” it every time s/he runs into some losses. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or…
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58: Do You Care What We Call Ourselves?
A blind taste test between two investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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57: Streakiness and Big Kills
There’s a tremendous amount of inconsistency and streakiness that occurs in the markets. Great investors do their best to survive and focus between big kills and have the ability to take the shot when they come along. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other...
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56: Don't Hit the Snooze
All it takes is missing one big winner and/or holding a loser just a little too long to derail our investing results. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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55: From Seed to Yield
One seed = one opportunity. Many seeds = many opportunities. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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54: In the Foxhole
Having skin in the game makes for a better fund manager. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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53: "Hey Man, Whatever Works."
Two things investors are always going to want: to make more money and suffer less drawdowns. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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52: Risk Comes Fast - General Electric
Romanticizing about a stock clouds judgement. General Electric, once a darling of the Dow and pillar of innovation, has become a shell of itself. It has lost over two-thirds of it’s value over the last few years and ~85% since 2000. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with...
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51: Comparing the Worst Periods of Trend Following to Buy-and-Hold Index Funds
Article: http://www.melissinostrading.com/investment-strategy/comparing-the-worst-periods-of-trend-following-to-buy-and-hold-index-funds/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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50: Possessed by Process
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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49: Sometimes Kids Leads the Way
Part 1) Derek Notman of Intrepid Wealth Partners and I co-write article on Trend Following. Link: http://www.intrepidwealthpartners.com/blog/trend-following Part 2) An inspirational story of a kid trying to buy a computer goes out into the snow to make some money. Story from the young fella's…
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44: White Squall
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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43: Are Your Investments Too Concentrated?
Yesterday's stock market sell-off presents a nice entry point for us to review our investments. Are we diversified? Are we too concentrated in tech stocks or large cap names? Might we reconsider re-balancing into some other non-US stocks, or different industries or different strategies in…
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42: Three Questions to Ask Investors
This one dovetails off of the "How We Work With Investors" episode. I believe in taking a thorough approach to learning about the investor, their risk tolerance and philosophy when it comes to not just investing, but life in general. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this…
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41: Lessons Learned from Italian Winemakers
On my recent trip to northern Italy, my wife and I went on a two-day wine tour. I asked a lot of questions. I wanted to learn about the winemaking process and draw parallels back to investing. Needless to say, they share a lot of similarities. The big question I asked: What percentage of making...
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40: How We Work with Investors
In this episode, I outline my method for how I like to work with investors. It doesn't always work. There's the occasional bump in the road (investors want to add in when recent performance is hot and sell out when I've been losing; they forget the benefits of adding a strategy like mine in their...
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39: Lost Knowledge is Real
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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38: What I Learn from Fortnite
Our behavior transcends our current setting. How we invest is how we eat, how we are in relationships, how we work, etc. Trend Followers don't limit their philosophy to one area. In all likelihood, they go with the flow, ride winners, cut losses and care a lot about survival in every facet of…
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37: NYC Trading Tribe - Notice Your Patterns
On this episode I talk about my recent experience in the NYC Trading Tribe. For those unfamiliar, I lay out the premise of Tribe before I get into it. Specifically, I talk about my behavioral pattern of shyness - missed opportunity - frustration. For much of my life, this pattern has occured over...
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36: Markets Were Choppy Back in the Day Too
Markets go through long periods of choppiness – often long enough for us to think that it’s the new normal. Markets can trend for a long period of time and we feel the same way. There have been many other instances in many other markets where they chop – trend – chop – trend. Markets today are no...
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35: Flowers and Trend Following
You care for your garden in a similar manner you do your trend following portfolio. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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34: Jerry Parker Interview #1 with Mike Melissinos
Jerry Parker needs no introduction. He's been running a successful trend following firm, Chesapeake Capital, since the 1980's. Today, we talk about a number of different things including: 1) Winton Capital "stepping away" from trend following 2) Morningstar's study on fund manager performance 3)...
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33: Gary Antonacci Interview with Mike Melissinos
Today, I talk to Gary Antonacci, author of Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk. Gary has over 40 years of investing experience, holds an MBA from Harvard. He also found, invested and worked with a few investing legends when they were relatively…
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32: Is Trend Following’s Lost Decade Over?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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31: Derek Notman, CFP Interview with Mike Melissinos
Derek Notman, CFP, is a financial advisor from Madison, Wisconsin. His firm is Intrepid Wealth Partners. Derek recently discovered trend following and is starting to educate his clients on the benefits of adding it to their portfolios. Today, we talk about: - how he discovered trend following...
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30: Hedge Funds vs. the S&P 500
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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29: John Wooden and Focusing Only on Results
The only thing Wooden cared about was focusing on things within his control and doing them to the best of his ability. He didn’t care or worry about things outside of his control, including winning. He actually believed winning was outside of his control. Remember, this is a guy who’s won more...
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28: Trends Have Trends
Every investment strategy experiences winning and losing streaks. They all take turns at the front and back of the line. Trend following has been sitting near the back of the line for the past 5-10 years, while stocks sit near the front. Trend following performance derives from the aggregate…
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27: A Trend Follower’s Secret Weapon Makes a Comeback
For the past 5–10 years, trend followers have had to deal with a double-whammy — poor markets and no interest on excess cash. However, it appears at least one of those is changing for the better. Interest rates are rising. Today, the 3-month T-Bill yields ~1.75%. Even though this is pretty low on…
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26: Opportunity in Commodities?
The following factors make me bullish on commodities: 1) Multi-year congestion 2) Low volatility 3) A rolling Sharpe Ratio near historic lows and most importantly... 4) New price breakouts. https://medium.com/@mmelissinos/opportunity-in-commodities-d0281fca3ece This is a public episode. If you...
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25: A Storm’s a Brewin’ in U.S. Government Bonds
I believe the bond market presents the most intriguing opportunity for trend followers right now. We’ve gone through an unprecedented time of low interest rates since 2008 and now that trend appears to be reversing. This trend may have more fuel than others given the extremely low volatility and...
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24: An Update on Precious Metals
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mikemelissinos.substack.com
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23: Rising Interest Rates: An Opportunity For Trend Followers?
The Fed appears committed to rising rates as long as the economy and inflation cooperate. Some people in the investing community have raised concerns that trend followers will not be able to perform as well when interest rates rise due to the negative carry when holding short positions in bond...
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22: The Bitcoin Bubble in Perspective
I’ve been receiving lots of texts and calls from friends, and people I haven’t heard from in a while, regarding Bitcoin — what my general thoughts are; whether to buy it or stay away; is it in a bubble or not? So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some of the biggest bubbles over the...
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21: Superordinate Goal - The Manager & Investor Relationship
In psychology, superordinate goals refer to goals that require the cooperation of two or more people or groups to achieve, which usually results in rewards to the groups. Good investing requires a good system, good markets and discipline. Often enough, it's the discipline part that ruins us. In…
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20: Questions That Don't Matter
"How much money have you made?" "Where did you get in?" People think these questions are important because they stimulate hopeful feelings of celebration (we've made a lot) and intelligence (we got in before others were talking about it). But these questions don't have anything to do with doing…
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19: It's Not If But When
Risk is like gravity — it always there, but you don’t always feel or see it. Today, we’re in between market storms. People have become more and more comfortable and complacent during the 8-year bull market. The relatively painless uptrend has lulled people into a false sense of security. Even…
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17: The Occasional Mistake
All fund managers have a system. Some have it in their gut and head while others code it into a computer. After coming to terms with a system, the manager must follow it religiously in order to maximize results and perform within investor expectations. I believe the main reason why benchmarks...
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16: Warren Buffet's Worst Loss Came During the Dot-Com Bubble
Buffett suffered a 49% loss from Jun 1998 to Mar 2000. At the same time, the NASDAQ rose 140% and SP500 rose 28%. Despite heavy losses and public ridicule, Buffett stuck to his guns and wouldn’t touch internet stocks. Buffett’s ability to stay disciplined might be more admirable than his…
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15: The Risks of Copying Others
As a copier, you cement your position of always following the crowd and competitors. You forgo understanding how the product you’re copying actually works; the reasons behind it’s design; the problems it addresses; why it performs the way it does. You blindly put your faith in the person or…
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14: Half vs. Half-Assed Product
Reduce the rules in your investing strategy to make it more robust and easier to execute. We all hear that simple is better; that complex doesn’t work as well and is harder to execute over the long run. Complex rules tend to promote confusion and second-guessing – things that can wreak havoc on…
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13: Bill Belichick on Doing Your Job
When you take the road less traveled, you hear a lot of negative chatter from others and from yourself when you don’t perform well. But winners don’t give in or tell people what they want to hear; they stick to the process instead. If you watched the Super Bowl, you saw two games — one where the...
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12: Make a Big Kill Every Once in a While
Apex predators don’t succeed all that often. Tigers succeed only 5% of the time; Polar bears 10% and Leopards 14%. All they need is one big kill every once in a while to stay atop the food chain. Tigers, lions and other predators know their game. They balance persistence and knowing when to quit;...
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Whipsawed have?
Whipsawed currently has 61 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Whipsawed about?
The podcast of trend following fund manager Michael Melissinos mikemelissinos.substack.com
How often does Whipsawed release new episodes?
Whipsawed has 61 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to Whipsawed?
You can listen to Whipsawed on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Whipsawed?
Whipsawed is created and hosted by Michael Melissinos.
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