All Episodes
John’s Newsletter — 673 episodes
The Greatest Vice: Cowardice in The Master and Margarita
Demography and the fading of neoconservatism
Foreign Affairs Fifteen (Episode 9)
The Donroe Doctrine is the great foreign policy success that no one is talking about
Is our post-literate society the end of western civilization?
The Guy with the Nazi Tattoo
The Devil Went Down To..... Moscow?
Getting back to Eisenhower's NATO
Threats to the next 50 years of the American Republic
A Political Risk Analysis of the Glorious 4th
A first historical look at the Iran War
The Corpse in The Gilded Frame (Part II)
The Democrats are in danger of the Pauline Kael trap
The cruelty of European elites
Great Political Risk Movies: The Death of Stalin (2017)
Justice comes for Fauci
The Corpse in the Gilded Frame
With Starmer's predictable exit, the British Establishment continue rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic
Foreign Affairs Fifteen: Episode 6
Great Political Risk Movies: Zero Dark Thirty (2102)
Neocon pyromaniacs don’t get to tell realists how to put out the fire that they started
China has problems, too (Part 2)
A Better Middle East will form out of the ashes of the Iran War
At least Trump avoided the ghost of LBJ in ending the Iran War
Great Political Risk Movies: A Man for all Seasons (1966)
Foreign Affairs Fifteen: Episode 5
Pretenders to the Throne: 2028 Primary Contenders Ranked
Cut USAID funding and suddenly the developing world votes for Conservatives
The war from Iranian eyes
Foreign Affairs Fifteen: Episode 4
A midyear look at our 2026 political risk calls
The Iron Laws of Revolution
What we've learned in DC (Part 2)
The UK must stop tolerating the intolerable
Pretenders to the Throne: 2028 Primary Contenders Ranked
The Great Gatsby and Neo-Conservatism
DNC Post-Mortem: We Dug Up Our Own Grave and Blamed the Shovel
Special Episode: Foreign Affairs Fifteen
The ceasefire is the least bad option, but it is clear that Iran has won the war. Bravo, neocons!
Hellhound on his Trail, Part 3
Did Trump Kill Massie?
The Revolution is now: Drones are the future (and the present) of warfare
Foreign Affairs Fifteen: Episode 3
Is the Iran War about to burst into flame again?
Europe's leaders' unpopularity is merely the bird atop the rhino
Hellhound on his Trail, Part 2
The Sino-American Summit through Xi's Eyes
Foreign Affairs Fifteen: Episode 2
The war will never end until American diplomatic expectations are in line with battlefield realities
The UK elections underling the well-deserved collapse of the British Establishment
Foreign Affairs Fifteen
Tantalizingly, the Iran War may well be about to end
Supreme Court Strikes Again
It's past time for justice for Covid
Hellhound on his Trail, Part 1
Where the Iran War is heading
Where the Iran War is today
With the UAE leaving OPEC, the Great Energy Game is Afoot
Midterm Alarm Bells are Ringing
The vultures are circling over Bibi
Energy and the Iran War
The Last Best Hope, Part 3
9 Reflections on the Iran War
A pathetic Starmer is a symptom of British decline, but he is not the disease
The president is caught between his desire to end the war and his desire to proclaim total victory
A plan made in Washington
The Last Best Hope, Part 2
The Geopolitics of the Iran War
Trump is rightly looking for an offramp over Iran
First Principles and the Iran War
Trump's Iran address ignores the supreme political risk question
Our Iran War Matrix is looking good; the neocons less so
Gaming out the Iran War
The Last Best Hope, Part 1
Can a Crab Save Cuba?
The Political Ramifications of the Iran War
The Iran War will be harder, and last longer, than you are being told
Anatomy of a Disaster: From the Hot Hand Fallacy to the Sunk Costs Fallacy
A death in Iran and a resignation in Washington
The Perfect Game
Hamlet, not MacBeth: Human frailty explains the Iran War fiasco
A World Restored, Part 3
The Energy Achilles Heel
The axis of strategy
The parameters for success or failure in Iran
The contours of the Iran War become clear
Echoes of Chaos: Iraq, Libya, Syria
The Israeli tail that wags the American dog
An exhausted Rubio finally reveals the real reason for the Iran War
The Iran War from Donald Trump's Eyes
Quick Take-The attack on Iran
Why Iran isn't caving
A World Restored, Part 2
Why does Congress suck?
A Death in Mexico
What the Court's Tariff Decision Means
Storm Clouds over Tehran
Rubio signals the end of the party
A World Restored, Part 1
2026 - Checking our Calls
Our first call of 2026 comes good: Takaichi wins big in Japan
The genius of the US pivot to the Monroe Doctrine
Getting nowhere fast in Ukraine
The Horse Race that Begins Now
Castro's Ghost: In Cuba, the Vultures are Circling
The Latin American Opportunity
Keir Starmer and the Curse of the Dodo Bird
What is happening in Minnesota
The Outsider's Oracle
The Mystery of the Missing Chinese Generals (Part 2)
To Dare More Boldly, Part 4
What in the world is going on over Greenland?
Takaichi makes her move
The Home Truths of the new American Foreign Policy
What we learned in DC
Not the Moment of Truth in Iran
Greenland, Iran, and the Fed....all before breakfast! With John Goodnight
To Dare More Boldly, Part 3
Is Greenland Next?
The Donroe Doctrine
Quick Take-Venezuela is where the realist Trump Doctrine is made flesh
To Dare More Boldly, Part 2
Why the Ukraine War Will Go On
The last days of the Brussels elite
It's about the calls: Our 2026 Political Risk Predictions
To Dare More Boldly, Part 2
The lunacy of the EU's 'loan' to Ukraine
Over Ukraine, Trump risks chipping away at the MAGA Base
It was a very good year: A review of the 2025 political risk call record
To Dare More Boldly, Part 1
Europe's decline by the numbers
The NSS from China's Eyes
Donald Trump's National Security Strategy is a Realist Triumph
The Man Who Would Be King, Part 2
Trump expands the Roosevelt Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine
For Ukraine, the political risk lies in the mirror
The Man Who Would Be King, Part 1
How The Last Best Hope Tracked the Coming of the Trump Doctrine
The Mystery of the Disappearing Chinese Generals
Some realist thoughts on the Ukraine Peace Plan
The movies of Robert Redford: Quiz Show (1994)
God helps those who help themselves: Takaichi's new strategic policy for Japan
Ukraine's longest winter
The movies of Robert Redford: The Natural (1984)
Karma and the BBC
Why the political risk in the UK is the highest in the western world
The movies of Robert Redford: All the President's Men (1976)
Is a Supreme Court Black Swan about to obliterate Trump's tariff policy?
Barbarians at the Gate: Jeffersonianism in an age of Bigotry
Trump's diplomatic secret: They need us more than we need them
The movies of Robert Redford: Three Days of the Condor (1975)
Scorpions in a bottle: The Sino-American trade ceasefire is a pause, and not the end, of their superpower competition
As we predicted in January, the Milei Revolution will endure
The movies of Robert Redford: Downhill Racer (1969) and Jeremiah Johnson (1972)
Keep your eye on Japan and the underrated Takaichi
Reality returns to the Ukraine War
“The bell tolls for the Labour Party: Current polling finds it in 4th place, the worst result for a sitting government in British history
The movies of Robert Redford: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969)
Anatomy of a success: Why Trump succeeded in the Middle East, while the foreign policy establishment failed
Aristotle bests the French
The Chinese Way of Spying, Part 3
The car crash of the French Fifth Republic
Abe's Ghost Stirs
Donald Trump and the Jacksonian way of war and peace
Ethical Realism (Part 4)
More Political Risk Thoughts on the Gaza Peace Plan
We cannot want peace more than they do
British Populism comes for the failed UK Establishment
Ethical Realism (Part 3)
Trump at the UN
Europe is Fundamentally Unserious
Ethical Realism (Part 2)
Europe is moving towards populism, whether its feckless elite notice or not
In Praise of Robert Redford
Brazil and the US are increasingly living on different planets
Jeffersonianism in the shadow of the gun
Memories of 9/11
Macron is trapped in a hell of his own making
A Revolution in US Grand Strategy is Coming
Ethical Realism, Part 1
Let's not go down the rabbit hole over Xi's overrated World War II party
Are the Bond Markets Coming for Britain and France?
Why Populism is Winning
The Daughter of Time (Part 2)
America's gigantic debt will make realists of us all
Putin's Gamble
The Daughter of Time
Reading the Tea Leaves of the Washington Summit
Lula and the 'Trump Effect'
Alaska and How the World Really Works
The Godfather Doctrine, Revisited
Ukraine drifts ever closer to a 1918-style calamity
The Ukraine War for Beginners
Europe's Future Gets Worse and Worse
The Odyssey, Part 3
India's perilous choice
Is the US-Israeli Special Relationship Coming to an end?
Federal Europe is dead; Long live confederal Europe
The Obamagate scandal should be shouted from the rooftops by anyone standing by the Republic
The Odyssey, Part 2
Running the table: The secret strategy behind Trump's tariff victories
Realist power realities alone explain the US-EU trade deal
The Odyssey, Part 1
Obamagate, the Steele Dossier, and the dangers of the late Roman Republic
Geoeconomics at the service of geopolitics: Trump's tariff deals in the Indo-Pacific
Beyond the snake oil: Getting political risk right
The fire in Syria and what it means regarding the new Middle East
The political miracle of Butler
The Mid-Year Review: The state of play regarding our 2025 political risk calls
The Milei Miracle (Part 2)
Letter to Korea: Seeing the method to Trump's seeming madness over trade policy
Reflections on Southeast Asia
Our After-Action Report on the 12-Day War
Quick Take-The Soleimani Effect, Part 2
What comes next in Iran
Quick Take-The Soleimani Effect
The problems with striking Iran
Iran proves that it's past time to slay the neoconservative vampire
My briefing for the President on the Israeli-Iran War
Quick Take-10 Thoughts About the Israeli-Iran War
Quick Take 2--The geopolitical ramifications of Israel's strike on Iran
Quick Take-Israel strikes Iran
Adventures in Nullification
Nullification is a disastrous political look for the Democrats
The Nullification Riots and my Hometown
An ode to Elon, with John Goodnight
Lawrence of Arabia, From Damascus to Baghdad, Part 3
Quick Take-The Courts Strike Back
Transatlantic Trade Talks still have a mountain to climb
Lawrence of Arabia, From Damascus to Baghdad, Part 2
Joe Biden and the ghost of Woodrow Wilson
The problem for Ukraine is 1918, not 1938
Lawrence of Arabia, From Damascus to Baghdad, Part 1
Crunch time over the Iranian nuclear crisis
How we called the US-China trade truce
Explaining how the world works, for the benefit of Europe's befuddled leaders
Trump's first big trade deal: Reflections on the US-UK agreement
Quick Take--The Kashmir Crisis rears its ugly head
An Olympian View of the Global Populist Movement
You cannot bomb the village in order to save it: Germany cannot save democracy by banning it.
An Appreciation of Gene Hackman: Unforgiven (1992)
The Establishment Strikes Back: Canada votes for 'The FT made flesh'
Germany's Pistorius is a poster boy for why it is increasingly difficult to defend the transatlantic alliance
An Appreciation of Gene Hackman: Mississippi Burning (1988)
I told you so: Years of delusion about Ukraine come to a shuddering halt
Beijing strikes back: China's clever move in the global trade war
An Appreciation of Gene Hackman: The French Connection (1971)
The American tariff strategy to isolate China
How Harvard went off the rails
The panicked gatekeeper: Douglas Murray and the failed arrogance of neoconservatism
What Liberation Day actually accomplished
How we got Trump's global tariff war right
Beyond the noise, Trump's trade war is all about China
The first principles underlying Trump's tariffs
Reflections ahead of the NY bell
A Divided World's predictably fragmented response to Trump's tariffs
Donald Trump and the end of the Age of Globalisation
The promise and peril of Guyana
An Appreciation of Gene Hackman: I Never Sang for my Father (1970)
Lessons From The Signal Chat Kerfuffle
Erdogan makes his move
The theory of the case for Trump's tariffs
Merz gets it done on defence
The Democrats in Winter
The Awful Truth: Western Governments Knew About the Origins of Covid, and Chose to do Nothing
An Appreciation of Gene Hackman: Bonnie and Clyde (1967)
Quick Take: Ukraine Agrees to Ceasefire
Gaming Out Lunatics: The response to my Trump Speech in Venice
Into the Lion's Den: My Venice Speech
Defining Victory: A realist spheres-of-influence world comes into focus
Anatomy of a disaster: 10 realist points about the Trump-Zelensky meeting (Part 2)
Anatomy of a disaster: 10 realist points about the Trump-Zelensky meeting (Part 1)
The Meteor: The Beatles' Rubber Soul (1965)
The failed Istanbul Accord may be the original sin of the Ukraine War
What the German election means
The realist case for Trump's Ukraine policy
The elite Wilsonian delusion at the heart of Europe's wrongheaded cheerleading for Ukraine
At 'Emergency' European meeting, its leaders demand a greater role in the world...and then demand the US do everything. The continent is utterly infantilised.
Three existential questions Europe must immediately answer before their next meeting
Europe finds itself at the kids' table over Ukraine
Quick Take: With Hegseth's comments, the realist foreign policy revolution has begun
The coming Constitutional Crisis over DOGE
The USAID gravy train is just the tip of the Blob's Iceberg
Over the USAID scandal, America is done with subsidising the Wilsonianism ecosystem across the world
Trump proves that realism works
5 Deeper reasons why the Democrats (and global Wilsonians) are losing their minds over Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico
The populist water continues to rise
Donald Trump, Columbia, and the Return of Competence Porn
A reckoning is coming for Dr. Fauci
The Trump Revolution: The Inauguration Edition
The daunting task of defending Taiwan
The Meteor: Bob Dylan, Blood on the Tracks, 1975
Quick Take: The Trump Effect alone explains the ceasefire in the Middle East
Europe: Still Aboard the Titanic, not even talking about the Iceberg
Misreading the mandate: A post-mortem of the Biden presidency
In a post-globalised world, the US holds most of the cards
Canada, Greenland and Panama: Donald Trump and the Rise of a new Realist Era
The end of Hair Boy signals the Establishment Blob is in full retreat
Starmer's Britain is tolerating the intolerable
Bankers acting like Marxists: The end of globalisation and the rise of populism
The Call: Our political risk predictions for 2025
The review of a magical year: Our 2024 political risk calls
The miracle of Milei
The Meteor: Sidney Poitier's Magical Year (1967)
Being Aboard the Titanic and not Mentioning the Iceberg: Europe is the Weakest Link
Twilight of Canada's Hair Boy
Explaining Trump's cabinet in three easy lessons
Quick Take:Another one for Jefferson; South Korea's president is finally impeached
The Meteor: Van Gogh at Arles, 1888-1889
Assad was toppled in spite of the Biden administration, not because of it
Netanyahu wins 'The Bismarck' for the year's most successful geopolitical strategist
Quick Take: The non-American Great Powers lying behind the Political Earthquake in Syria
Macron is the winner of 'The Merkel' as the most overrated European statesman
Getting South Korea Right: Why Coups Fail
Quick Take: The South Korean coup is likely to fail
Joe Biden pardoned his son, his family and himself; But we mustn't pardon him
The Syrian Deep State Litmus Test
Trump's assault on Wilsonianism, and the Blob that loves it
Quick take: Israel wins its northern war
Translating populism for the establishment: Trump's macro-economic agenda
Monopoly explains why Europe is down and America is up...for now
Iran will be the great foreign policy battle of the new administration
'So far from God and so close to the US:' A nervous Mexico (rightly) finds itself the centre of Trump's foreign policy
Like Tom and Daisy Buchanan the blob has carelessly broken American foreign policy over Ukraine, leaving realists to clean up the mess
What we learned from our post-election week in DC
Germany's faltering government runs out of steam; but something better is on the horizon
Lessons learned from the 2024 election, with John Goodnight
How we nailed it: Political Risk lessons from the 2024 election
How 1968 explains the 2024 election
Our election party (Part 5)
Our election party (Part 4)
Our election party (Part 3)
Our election party (Part 2)
Our election party (Part 1)
Predictably, the magical thinking over Ukraine is morphing into a nightmare
Starmer government caught gaslighting the UK
The Meteor: Lincoln at Gettysburg
My 1000th speech: What I've learned along the way
Trump's great historical success: The neo-cons have been booted from the GOP
Our official 2024 US election call; with John Goodnight
A look at the world ahead of the election: Ukraine, Middle East and the Indo-Pacific
Sinwar reaps what he sows: But the war in the Middle East will not end
The signs of Europe's decline are all around us
It is now irrefutable that the MSM is the greatest danger to American democracy
As the election nears, 'The Shy Trump Voter' is everything
Hezbollah's disastrous political risk miscalculations
Donald Trump, not Barack Obama, was right about the Middle East
In crushing Walz, JD Vance shows himself to be the future of the MAGA movement
In eliminating Nasrallah, Israel rolls the dice
Why is Zelenskyy campaigning for the Democrats in Pennsylvania?
The Milei free market revolution is succeeding
Connecting the dots over the assault on free speech
Why Hilary Mantel matters: 'The Mirror & the Light'
The US must not let Zelensky drag it into the Ukraine War
The European elite wakes up to the nightmare of economic decline...25 years too late
Why Hilary Mantel matters: 'Bring Up the Bodies'
Playing with fire in Ukraine
A debate of missed opportunities
The Cheneys' pathetic defection signals the coming of the realist revolution in the GOP
Why Hilary Mantel matters: 'Wolf Hall'
Gideon Rachman and the mainstream media remind us of the necessity of the American Revolution
The chickens come home to roost in Germany
What we've learned in Washington, with John Goodnight
Zuckerberg says the quiet part out loud about Biden-Harris censorship
Why RFK Jr. Matters, with John Goodnight
Special Report: Is the Middle East on the Brink?
The Hamiltonian piece of the realist puzzle
Ukraine's Potemkin offensive
Harris's economic illiteracy explains why they have been hiding her
Why Hilary Mantel matters: 'A Place of Greater Safety'
Harris's honeymoon is due to her 'modified Biden' strategy
An over-mighty EU had better not bite the American hand that feeds it
Five great political movies: 'Lawrence of Arabia'
Jefferson's Vow: Manning the barricades for free speech
Our quick take: Harris's choice of Walz as VP candidate is just downright weird
Only picking Josh Shapiro can help Harris move the political needle
Where we are: The world at the beginning of August 2024
Five great political movies: 'Downfall'
World War I in the Indo-Pacific?
Special Report: The Israelis strike back; The Middle East at the 1914 precipice
"I am a scorpion:" How the Maduro regime fooled the Biden administration
My July Riff: The things that can go wrong (Europe, China, Venezuela, and Hezbollah)
Five great political movies: 'All the President's Men'
The circus is in town, but Harris's left-wing record will doom her with the American people
The trouble with Kamala
Joe Biden Out. What this means for 2024 with John Goodnight
Five great political movies: 'Z'
What the Vance pick says about a Trump second term
After the thunderbolt: The Democrats' many dilemmas
Special Report: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Five great political movies: 'The Battle of Algiers'
Look in the mirror: The media are the conspiracy they have been looking for
Beyond the cocktail party: A realist corrective about NATO and the war in Ukraine
The Chinese way of spying (Part 2)
The Wizard of Oz election leaves France nowhere
Songs that matter: 'In My Life,' by the Beatles; John Lennon, Love, and Realism
The strange death of Conservative England
The debate as political risk game-changer
Why Biden will stay
The end of Macronism
Special Report: The Presidential Debate--The Chickens come home to roost for the Democrats
The EU blob don't even bother to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic
With France in open revolt, the EU federalist pipe-dream is blessedly coming to an end
Macron's coming electoral disaster in France merely underlines the terminal decline of the European elite
My DACOR Washington Speech
Washington Notes: The eye of the hurricane, with John Goodnight
Elections around the world: France, South Africa, India and the US, with John Goodnight
The building blocks for Biden are crumbling, with John Goodnight
The known unknowns: Critical Signposts to keep in mind ahead of the election, with John Goodnight
Macron and the rest of the European elite are living on borrowed time: They haven't even begun to understand why they are so unpopular
Songs that matter: Crowded House, 'Four Seasons in one day,' and St. Andrews
Given what they did in 2016 and 2020, Democrats have opened Pandora's box over Election Interference Charges
Positive mystery and the Indian election
What happens in South Africa next is the most important thing
Special Report: Biden's confused peace plan for Gaza
Special Report: The verdict for the Democrats' ruinous Lawfare policy will come on November 5th
Ukraine's cheerleaders just can't get it in their heads that Kiev is not a primary American interest
My May foreign policy riff: An odd use of the possessive; The bankruptcy of the 'international community,' or not letting the Polish Foreign Minister have control of my army
Reviving transatlantic ties in the Age of Trump
Songs that matter: Brian Wilson, 'Good Vibrations,' and perfection
The real forces at work behind the Gaza War
The Bird on the Rhino: The ICC ruling shows that Wilsonians have absolutely no idea how the world really works
Special Report: The death of the Butcher of Tehran
Hiding in plain sight: The new Chinese way of spying
Songs that matter: The Byrds, 'My back pages,' and growing up politically
Our call for Trump in October 2023 is looking better by the minute
Trump's trial is literally a Kafka novel: It will be the ruination of the Democrats
Songs that matter: Peter Gabriel, 'Solsbury Hill,' and my Iraq War
Forget Munich and Vietnam: Today's Asia is 1914
Why the Gaza cease-fire isn't happening
Macron's brain dead misunderstanding of how NATO/European security works
Why Graham Greene matters: The Honorary Consul
Biden hiding in the White House from campus unrest is neither brave, nor good politics
An open letter to the Columbia protestors
Why the dollar will remain pre-eminent...for now
Why Graham Greene matters: The Comedians
Real world limits make realism the only answer for American foreign policy
10 reasons why Congress's blank check for Ukraine is folly
Why Graham Greene matters: Our Man in Havana
The political tug of war in the Philippines is the locus of the new Great Game between China and the US
Whatever happens next, Biden's Middle East policy lies in ruins
Special Report: Iran's missile attack on Israel. Don't believe the hysterical chicken littles, World War III is not about to begin
Why OJ Simpson Matters
Why China is the unlikely winner of the Ukraine War
My best political risk call: India is the future
Saving Ukraine from itself
Why Graham Greene matters: The Quiet American
Are Turkey's recent elections a political game-changer?
Robert Kagan is our April Fool of the Year
Why Graham Greene matters: Brighton Rock
Stop wish-casting about Putin
How to save NATO
Special Briefing: The Moscow Terror Attack
Why Robert Altman matters: Gosford Park
America's enemies have problems, too
The West's woes and how to fix them
The Capitol Hill Speech
Setting the scene: The 2024 general election campaign begins
Why Robert Altman matters: The Player
The Democrats can never hope to win in 2024 if they are so afraid of the American people
Why Robert Altman matters: Nashville
In appealing to the pro-Hamas wing of his party, Biden loses the nation
Where we are: The world at the end of February 2024
The Last Best Hope with Shaun Thompson
Why Robert Altman matters: The Long Goodbye
The danger of lying to Europeans at cocktail parties
Why Robert Altman Matters: McCabe and Mrs. Miller
At last the political risk bill comes due for European lotus-eaters
"'A well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory': Parsing the worst day of the Biden presidency"
The Last Best Hope with The Political Risk Podcast
Albums you must listen to: The Doors', 'The Doors'
Chinks of light in the Middle East?
Snapshot of the race: February 2024
Albums you must listen to: The Zombies' "Odyssey and Oracle"
The politics of a Kafka novel: The political risk factors underlying the Gaza War
The Happy Talk has to stop: Zelensky's botched effort to remove his realist military chief underlines his dangerous delusion
Albums you must listen to: The Byrds', 'Mr. Tambourine Man'
The Neocons' Last Stand
The Alternate Reality of Western Elites
Albums you must listen to: Marvin Gaye's 'What's Going On'
After Iowa: Exploding the last anti-Trump myth
Lai's election proves Xi's Taiwan strategy is failing
With Iowa just ahead, what is the state of the presidential race?
All Hands on Deck: It's Book Publication Day!
Albums you must listen to: Joni Mitchell's 'Blue'
With the rise of India over the next decades, the 21st Century will be Tripolar
The Call: Our 2024 Political Risk Predictions
Why Ernest Hemingway Matters: The Old Man and the Sea
You cannot defend democracy by destroying democracy
Why Ernest Hemingway Matters: For Whom the Bell Tolls
The bleak truth is that Iran has already accomplished its strategic goals in the Gaza War
The EU's elite is living on borrowed time
Why Ernest Hemingway matters: The Snows of Kilimanjaro
Wishcasting: Why Ukraine's cheerleaders got the counter-offensive so wrong
Why Ernest Hemingway Matters: A Farewell to Arms
Realism and the passing of Henry Kissinger
Amidst all the global brushfires, the US must keep its eye squarely on the Taiwan Strait
Why populism is winning
Shock Dutch election results confirm the global populist revolt is alive and well
El Loco and the libertarian revolution in Argentina
Why Ernest Hemingway Matters: Fiesta
Why Nikki Haley is the fool's gold of this election cycle
Appointing David Cameron Foreign Secretary is like giving an arsonist a match
We told you so: Biden's poll numbers in battleground states tank pushing Democrats into full panic mode
Where we are: The world at the beginning of November 2023
Two further points about the Israeli-Hamas war
Four points to make about the Israeli-Hamas War
Avoiding World War I in the Middle East
Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: President Biden's shopworn evocation of World War III is a dangerous illusion
Niall Ferguson's dangerous neocon musings about World War III must be avoided at all costs
The fatal flaw of the Obama-Biden Mideast policy (Iran) becomes tragically clear
A Hamas-Israeli War update
The crisis in Israel at last makes the real Ukraine 'link' clear; it is past time for the US to make realist choices
RFK Jr. is just about to decisively upend the 2024 presidential race
What was I thinking? Chapter 5: Fighting when it is necessary; FDR saves the US from the Nazi peril (Part 1)
What was I thinking? Chapter 4: Senator William Borah reminds us that sovereignty is real and everything
Changing our Substack rules for our community
What was I Thinking? The Last Best Hope: Chapter 3--'Never do what your enemy wants you to do;' William H. Seward navigates the Tent affair and saves the Union
Why Raymond Chandler Matters: The Little Sister
What Was I Thinking?: The Last Best Hope; Chapter 2--John Quincy Adams and 'No More Stupid Wars'
Why Raymond Chandler Matters: Farewell My Lovely
What was I thinking? The Last Best Hope; Chapter 1--"Alliances should only be entered into when they advance specific American interests"
Why Raymond Chandler Matters: The Big Sleep
What was I thinking?: The Last Best Hope; Introduction
Biden's putative Middle East deal is a very bad idea
Why the botched Hunter Biden plea agreement is important
Midsomer Malaise: Ukraine, US, Europe
It is Zelensky who is being absurd about Ukraine's alliance membership, not NATO
The world from the regional powers' eyes
The world through Russia's eyes
The world through the EU's eyes
The world through India's eyes
The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism
The world through the Anglosphere's eyes
The world through Japan's eyes
The world from America's eyes
The world from China's eyes
Joe Biden's family corruption (and its cover-up) is hidden in plain sight
The Kennedy Rule Still Applies: The West needs to wake up to the reality that the developing world is not with it
The foreign policy blob must learn to understand the reality of America's limits if the country is remain pre-eminent
Explaining reality to the French
Russia and Saudi Arabia are winning the energy war, as a clueless Biden administration fails to understand multipolarity
This time it's different: Why Trump's indictment will come to finish him
As both Covid and Ukraine show, we need more open debate, not less
The Beast of Inflation is claiming its banking victims
A Republic If You Can Keep It: Jeffersonian Accountability and the Elite's Failure Over the Origins of Covid
The global geo-strategic state of play, a year into the Ukraine War
The hidden realities of Ukraine, one year on
My political risk jazz riff for the day: The three opportunities that could transform our world
My political risk jazz riff for the day: The three risks that could upend our world
Why Republican patience with Ukraine is wearing thin
The monsters lying beneath the waves in political risk today (Russia, China, the US)
What's really going on in Ukraine
History's law of unintended consequences rears its head in Brazil and the Indo-Pacific
Why Trump will not be the GOP nominee in 2024
Our 2023 calls: The Age of Globalisation Gives Way to the Age of Anxiety
Why the Democrats' Christmas gift to Zelensky is a dangerous bridge too far
What the Ukraine War means
Why Twittergate matters
China's protests remind us that our rivals have problems, too
As winter sets in, where the Russo-Ukraine war stands
Midterm Wrap-Up: Republicans begin to solve their succession crisis; the Democrats have not
Good political risk news in Brazil
Final Midterm Intellectual Map Shows a Republican Rout
Reining in Biden to rein in Zelensky
After the 20th Party Congress, Storm Clouds over China
How to avoid a Nuclear War over Ukraine
Our US mid-term call: GOP to pick up 20-30 seats in the House, Senate to remain 50-50
Reflections on a week in Washington: Realism and Restraint are blessedly taking over the Republican Party
The post-mortem for an age: The era of globalisation is definitively over
The Ukraine War is about to reach a climax
Biden's political 'comeback' is little more than the media's wishful thinking
The rise of Anthony Fauci and the fall of elite credibility
The US must not abdicate its strategic policy to Zelensky
Ignore the doom-mongers: Things stack up well for the US on the Indo-Pacific chessboard
The realist limits to helping Ukraine
Why the raid on Trump's house will only help him politically
What will US foreign policy look like after the Democrats' mid-term wipeout?
Pelosi highlights Biden's dangerous confusion over Taiwan
China isn't a rising power; And that's precisely the problem
Will Draghi's anti-democratic failure lead to the coming of the anti-democratic Troika in Italy?
Albums you must listen to before you die (Part 4): The Doors; By The Doors
The wreck of the Angela Merkel; The Stanley Baldwin Legacy
Sri Lanka pays the price for the ruinous radical green agenda of an out-of-touch Davos man
Albums You Must Listen To Before You Die (Part 3); If You Can Believe Your Eyes and Ears, By The Mamas and the Papas
The Day of the Narcissist; Why Boris Johnson Fell
John Adams and the glorious 2nd (er, 4th)
Putin's game plan and the West's coming crisis
Albums You Must Listen To Before You Die (Part 2): Pet Sounds; By Brian Wilson and The Beach Boys
In these dangerous times, the West's weak leaders cannot make the bold policy choices necessary to right the ship
Albums You Must Listen To Before You Die (Part 1): Forever Changes; By Arthur Lee and Love
Political Risk Comes to France
After Ukraine, the new global constellation of power looks a lot like the old Cold War
Avoiding the American foreign policy blob's characteristic overstretch regarding Ukraine
Why we knew Boris Johnson was toast
The trouble with Germany
As Russia advances in Luhansk, Putin's strategic plan becomes clear
Western unity over Ukraine will prove increasingly fleeting
The Spaghetti Westerns: Once Upon a Time in the West
The Spaghetti Westerns: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
Getting beyond the schadenfreude: My unlikely defence of German foreign policy
The Spaghetti Westerns: For a Few Dollars More
Our American mid-term election prediction: The coming Republican tsunami
Over Ukraine, the war aims on both sides are evolving; the conflict has a long way to run
The Spaghetti Westerns: Fistful of Dollars
The case for a Russian victory in the Donbas
For all his verbal calisthenics, Partygate will still be the end of Boris
Hitchcock through the decades: The 1960s
The world turned upside down: The geopolitical ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Springtime for Nato
Hitchcock through the decades: The 1950s
While the mainstream media obsess about Trump, the Biden presidency terminally flounders
Hitchcock through the decades: The 1940s
Making sense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 6: The outlines of a peace deal?)
Hitchcock through the decades: The 1930s
Making sense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 5: Weeks where decades happen)
Making sense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 4: Avoiding the worst)
A realist corrective to the Ukraine Crisis: It is time for a new Truman-Eisenhower Moment to protect democracies in our new era
Germany's problems make Europe unable to deal with Russia
America's founders would be with Canada's truckers
Putin is taking advantage of the fact that a united West doesn't exist anymore
Monica Vitti, L'Avventura, and the Decadence to Come
How the pandemic will remake American politics
The Beatles' Magical Middle Years
Why Hemingway Matters
Profiles in Gutlessness: We must stop pretending Europe is a great power
Why Biden is failing
No, Boris, the rules are not just for the little people; it's time for you to go
The way the wind is blowing in Europe: Meloni, Pecresse, and Merz
A Free Man Replies to Emmanuel Macron
4 Reasons Putin Will Invade Ukraine
Our Geostrategist of the Year: Shinzo Abe
European citizens misunderstand the pandemic, and more, their natural rights
This year has seen the death of globalisation and the rise of great power politics
'It was the best of times, it was the worst of times'...Our Political Risk Predictions for 2021-2022
The trouble with the Republicans
Reflections on a trip to Barcelona: Covid has made it clear western governments are not fit for purpose in our new era
The Trouble with the Democrats
Don't look now but like a 1950's horror movie, the monster of inflation is alive
Covid, Again
The world through Putin's eyes
All of Hillary's Men: The Democrats' Nixonian Dirty Tricks Begin Catching Up With Them
Green Blues
The Death of the Grown-Ups: The West's Centre-Right Governing Establishment Falls Apart
While you were sleeping: Political Risk Since Covid
The Virginia Earthquake
Over Covid, we have disastrously allowed the elderly to steal life from the young
Iran is an unexploded political risk time bomb
Over the origins of the pandemic, Peter Daszak is China's 'Useful Idiot'
The Shakespearean Tragedy of Colin Powell: When Good Men Do Nothing
Dr. Franklin versus Dr. Fauci
For the United States, the political risk is 'us'
A Tale of Two Countries: Britain and France Confront Our New Era
Tail risk Tuesday: Biden's agenda, China, Italian elections
China's peaking power means the years immediately ahead will be fraught with peril
Emmanuel Macron is wrong; NATO isn't brain dead. But the European ideas industry surely is.
Lotus-eating Europe well on the way to isolationist ruin over China
With Aukus, the Anglosphere rises as the EU falls
Over China, The Anglosphere Strikes Back
Transforming mediocrity into an art form: We live in the age of Merkel
What 9/11 meant to me. What 9/11 did to us.
To Avoid Overall Decline, the US has to fight off its symptoms: Education, Fauci, and Afghanistan
Some final, definitive political risk thoughts about Afghanistan
Covid Brings Populist Danger to Europe
Germany's torpid election just got very interesting
China's Cover-Up of the Origins of Covid: The Definitive Timeline
The real lessons of Afghanistan
The WHO is an abomination; The Organisation's utter subservience to China fuelled Covid's transmission to the wider world
After Afghanistan: We must kill the liberal-neoconservative interventionist ideology forever
Lawrence of Arabia and the fall of Afghanistan
Dr. Fauci is emblematic of our failed elite
The Most Important Story in the World: China is obviously responsible for the Global Pandemic
Afghanistan must be the end of the line for America's noxious, futile efforts at nation-building