All Episodes

Episode 130 - Policy equivalence. Swing trend lines and vega congruity. #PolarityRadio 2/1/26

Episode 129 - Global deleveraging is accelerating. It won't stop in 2026. #PolarityRadio 1/31/26

Episode 128 - Software will drag hardware into a bear market. #PolarityRadio 1/30/26

Episode 127 - Don't let the shiny object fool you. We are losing liquidity. #PolarityRadio 1/28/26

Episode 126 - Mortgage rates continue lower with treasury volatility. #PolarityRadio 1/27/26

Episode 125 - The markets plumbing is losing pressure. Crypto leakage. #PolarityRadio 1/25/26

Episode 124 - Accelerating UMBS prepayments are starting to bid bonds. #PolarityRadio 1/24/26

Episode 123 - Watch capital flow. BTC to TOL, IGV to ITB NDX to UMBS. #PolarityRadio 1/23/26

Episode 122 - MSTR dragging BTC, QQQ, and mortgage rates lower. #PolarityRadio 1/22/26

Episode 121 - IGV, MSFT, MSTR, UMBS. Yield meltdown. #PolarityRadio 1/21/26

Episode 120 - Acclerating decay in MAMA FAANGM. Mortgage rates. #PolarityRadio 1/17/26

Episode 119 - NVDA must reach a 1 year low price. #PolarityRadio 1/20/26

Episode 118 - Tech and communications capital flight into low beta. #PolarityRadio 1/13/26

Episode 117 - DXY softened on Powell, but it won't help EM currencies. #PolarityRadio 1/11/26

Episode 116 - Trump trumped Powell. Low beta dominance. #Polarity Radio 1/9/26

Episode 115 - Atlanta Fed rose 270bps. 30Y mortgage 2bps lower. Lower rates,

Episode 114 - Venezuela will send the US 50 millions barrels of oil. #PolarityRadio 1/6/26

Episode 113 - The week, month, and quarter ahead. #PolarityRadio 1/4/26

Episode 112 - Venezuela's impact on markets in H1 26. #PolarityRadio 1/3/26

Episode 111 - Preview innovation deflation and bitcoin decay. #PolarityRadio 1/2/26

Episode 110 - Countdown to the genesis sequential BTC down year. #PolarityRadio 1/1/26

Episode 109 - Acceleration of beta Bitcoin and rate deflation. #PolarityRadio 12/31/25

Episode 108 - Falling rates. ABCDE. Accelerating C19 Bitcoin Decimal Evaporation.

Episode 107 - Silver's rising entropy will not return to crypto this decade. #PolarityRadio 12/27/25

Episode 106 - Bitcoin & 2y yield deflation. SMH momentum decay. #PolarityRadio 12/26/25

Episode 105 - Subscriber level information on open spaces with charts. #PolarityRadio 12/25/25

Episode 104 - The NDX and Bitcoin law apogee. 10 ^ - 1 or -2. #PolarityRadio 12//21/25

Episode 103 - The organized decay of beta continues. What signals are there? #PolarityRadio 12/17/25

Episode 102 - Oil, Gasoline, Bitcoin volatility are all sliding. Watch! #PolarityRadio 12/16/25

Episode 101 - The market is organized. BTC is leading the NDX lower. #PolarityRadio 12/15/25

Episode 100 - The organized decay of beta continues. What signals are there? #PolarityRadio 12/17/25

Episode 99 - What the Fed really said. Rates reaction is anemic. #PolarityRadio 12/10/25

Episode 98 - Bitcoin can fall 1, 2, or 3 decimals. HODL is financial fentanyl. #PolarityRadio 12/6/25

Episode 97 - What is BTPS? Why will that drive BTC below 10k or 1k? #PolarityRadio 11/29/25

Episode 96 - Subscribers spaces. #PolarityRadio 11/25/25

Episode 95 - Dollar strenght will deflate the AI Crypto bubble. #PolarityRadio 11/19/25

Episode 94 - What happens when people notice BTC's debasement? Watch DVOL! #PolarityRadio 11/16/25

Episode 93 - Volatility markets are losing liquidity. Beware! 11/11/25 #PolarityRadio

Episode 92 - DDS Duration Derangement Syndrome. Inflation vs Deflation. #PolarityRadio 11/9/25

Episode 91 - Beta capital flight is inescapable. AI reality strikes. #PolarityRadio 11/6/25

Episode 90 - What is a beta shear stress? the $ is the AI deathknell. #PolarityRadio 11/4/25

Episode 89 - Low MOVE is driving the MVE (Mortgage Volatility Engine). #PolarityRadio 10/31/25

Episode 88 - Powell spoofed the market on QT. Why? ZROZ/QQQ, ZROZ/BTC. #PolarityRadio 10/30/25

Episode 87 - NVDA higher is -ERP. ZROZ is +ERP. Who wins? #PolarityRadio 10/28/25

Episode 86 - Curve flattening 5/30 2/10 10/30. Bad for yields SPY QQQ. #PolarityRadio 10/27/25

Episode 85 - The myth of Covid - 19 era mortgage coupon driven inertia. #PolarityRadio 10/26/25

Episode 84 - Volatility is exiting the sovereign market. Bad 4 banks. #PolarityRadio 10/23/25

Episode 83 - Banks and tech are in trouble. Don't believe the hype. #PolarityRadio 10/22/25

Episode 82 - Curve, volatility, and price deflation. Gold slaughter. #PolarityRadio 10/21/25

Episode 81 - Duration imbalance will drive market instability not credit. #PolarityRadio 10/20/25

Episode 80 - Falling crypto kurtosis confirms the NDX bear market. #PolarityRadio 10/17/25

Episode 79 - The problem with banks when rates fall hard. #PolarityRadio 10/17/25

Episode 78 - We are not in a repeat of April 21, 2025. Yields must fall. #PolarityRadio 10/12/25

Episode 77 - #MMA, MSFT, META, AMZN. Bond & Crypto polarity shift. #PolarityRadio 10/11/25

Episode 76 - The market's plumbing sprung more leaks today MMA down. #PolarityRadio 10/10/25

Episode 75 - The market's plumbing is leaking. MOVE is losing kurtosis. #PolarityRadio 10/9/25

Episode 74 - The system is losing leverage, capitalization and beta. #PolarityRadio 10/6/25

Episode 73 - NASDAQ 100 capital flight is accelerating. AI ~= Fiber. #PolarityRadio 10/3/25

Episode 72 - The yield curve is deflating. Ultrabond is beating NDX. #PolarityRadio 9/29/25

Episode 71 - UST volatility will continue too fall with its lower yield tail. #PolarityRadio 9/26/25

Episode 70 - 3 vectors will drive up the $ and destroy NDX earnings growth. #PolarityRadio 9/24/25

Episode 69 - We are joined by Mike Hobart for a great episode. #PolarityRadio 9/22/25

Episode 68 - Capital flow, friction, and fiction. Powell's part in these. #PolarityRadio 9/21/25.

Episode 67 - Treasury vega is melting with all vegas. RFIX. #PolarityRadio 9/18/25

Episode 66 - The RFIX PM will be explaining it offline to me. #PolarityRadio 9/17/25

Episode 65 - 3Y low 30Y mortgage rates, Atlanta Fed 3.4%. 3Y UST 3.5%. #PolarityRadio 9/16/25

Episode 64 - New YTD low 30Y fixed mortgage rate. Euro + tech will follow. #PolarityRadio 9/15/25

Episode 63 - The UST volatility curve is flattening. UST will follow. #PolarityRadio 9/13/25

Episode 62 The flattening curve is driving down mortgage rates. #PolarityRadio 9/12/25

Episode 61 - The curve will invert and drag down yields, Euro, NDX, BTC. #PolarityRadio 9/10/25

Episode 60 - The yield curve will invert and bid the $ it's bad 4 tech. #PolarityRadio 9/9/25

Episode 59 - Rates won't stop falling. The Euro & tech are next. #PolarityRadio 9/8/25

Episode 58 - The system has checkmated Powell. Rates, tech, crypto, MSTR will fall. #PolarityRadio 9/7/25

Episode 57 - Mortgage rates will drive software then FAANG lower. #PolarityRadio 04/09/25

Episode 56 - 36 month low ARM rate. Ignore bonds, watch 2s & 10s. #PolarityRadio 9/3/25

Episode 55 - The 3Y UST & 7/6 ARM telling us there is no inflation. #PolarityRadio 8/28/25

Episode 54 - The 3Y is now 79 bps below FFR. Dec 26 FFR is 2.935. #PolarityRadio 8/27/25

Episode 53 - Powell's Gordian Cut. Cut or not. Does not matter. Rates melt. #PolarityRadio 8/25/25

Episode 52 - St Barts review. Cresting credit & crypto bubble. #B7C3 2026 #PolarityRadio 8/24/25

Episode 51 - Acid Caital recasp St Barts camp/ VXN/VIX XPH/BTC. #PolarityRadio 8/21/25

Episode 50 - UST volatility continues decaying as liquidity increases. #PolarityRadio 8/14/25

Episode 49 - MOVE UMBS. Why are housing related equities surging? #PolarityRadio 8/1/25

Episode 48 - UST bond liquidity is rising. Data is largely priced in. #PolarityRadio 8/11/25

Episode 47 - Coppers collapse signals bank death. This is not a correction. #PolarityRadio 8/7/25

Episode 46 - What is a bank? B/D curve + credit. MCBs bill shrink massively! #PolarityRadio 8/6/25

Episode 45 - MC banks + NDX + SMH + mortgage rates + UB rates have peaked. #PolarityRadio 8/5/25

Episode 44 - The inflation narrative is coming under assault with NASDAQ. #PolarityRadio 8/1/25

Episode 43 - MOVE broke down. VIX bottomed Tuesday. Re-coherence. #PolarityRadio 8/1/25

Episode 42 - The curve has broken down and MOVE is about to join it. #PolarityRadio 7/30/25

Episode 41 - VIX local trough. Curve breakdown. DXY/SPX convergence. #PolarityRadio 7/29/25

Episode 40 - The decay of M2 growth has begun. I = MC ^ 2 NDX has peaked. #PolarityRadio 7/28/25

Episode 39 - QFT. Quantum Finance Theory. Levenson diagrams. Melting Vega. #PolarityRadio 7/27/35

Episode 38 - Underperforming NDX. Decaying Vega. Curve flattening. #PolarityRadio 7/25/25

Episode 37 - Liquidity is dying. M2 annihilation. G - > V. #PolarityRadio 7/22/25

Episode 36 - Approaching prompt roll over of beta is at hand. #PolarityRadio 7/21/25

Episode 35 - Part 2 of Friday spaces. Vega decay and equity deflation. #PolarityRadio 7/20/25

Episode 34 - Tech deflation! Nested vega & cross asset compression. E2A2O. #PolarityRadio 7/18/25

Episode 33 - The MOVE is absorbing policy interference very well. #PolarityRadio 7/17/25

Episode 32 - $ resilience and MOVE rate suppresion despite policy. #PolarityRadio 7/16/25

Episode 31 - The $ signal is unmistakeable. $ liquidity is decaying. #PolarityRadio 7/15/25

Episode 30 - Greenspan was 2 late. Powell was 2 early. #PolarityRadio 7/12/25

Episode 29 - Prompt +1 day, vega (MOVE) suppression took out 200MMA today. #PolarityRadio 7/10/25

Polarity Pivot Podcast (7/9/25) - Prompt Vega suppression bond and interest rate sensitive rally. #PolarityRadio

Episode 28 - Dollar strength is broadening. This kills M2 growth + liquidity. #PolarityRadio 7/8/25

Episode 27 - $ call skew troughed 2 weeks ago. the $ bottomed 7/1/25. #PolarityRadio 7/7/25

Episode 26 - Bubble deflation everywhere. NDX GOLD BTC. Yen, Pound, Euro. MOVE yields. #PolarityRadio 7/6/25

Episode 25 - MOVE will drag down FAANGMT. Our most important episode ever. #PolarityRadio 7/3/25

Episode 24 - Dollar strength is accelerating and that's bad for NDX. #PolarityRadio 7/23/25

Episode 23 - The dollar is strengthening as rates continue their decline. #PolarityRadio 7/2/25

Episode 22 - The cheapest thing in the world, bond skew. Deflation. #PolarityRadio 7/1/25

Polarity Pivot Podcast (6/29/25) - Prompt MOVE index deflation will drive rates and gold lower. #PolarityRadio

Episode 21 - MOVE index deflation is accelerating. Rates will fall further. #PolarityRadio 6/29/25

Episode 20 - The MOVE is screaming rates will melt NDX/DIA too! #PolarityRadio 6/27/25

Episode 19 - Rates won't stop melting down. NVDA NDX GLD BTC will follow. #PolarityRadio 6/26/25

Episode 18 - The credit bubble is failing. Gold, rates, GOOG soon. #PolarityRadio 6/24/25

Episode 17 - Paused flattener and NDX NVDA bear market policy superposition. #PolarityRadio 6/23/25

Polarity Pivot Podcast (6/22/25) - NDX NVDA SMH GOOG AAPL bear market is starting with bond bull. #PolarityRadio

Episode 16 - Global yields are declining and will weaken the NASDAQ. #PolarityRadio 6/20/25

Episode 15 - What is the yield curve telling us? 2/10 will invert. #PolarityRadio 6/17/26

Episode 14 Pt 2 - 2/10 will invert. NDX and bond yields will fall. NO recession. #PolarityRadio 6/15/25

Episode 14 Pt 1 - 2/10 will invert. NDX and bond yields will fall. NO recession. #PolarityRadio 6/15/25

Episode 13 - The 2/10 curve is the best global M2 growth barometer.#PolarityRadio 6/14/25

Episode 12 - The weekly 2/10 curve close was weak. It will fail! #PolarityRadio 6/13/2025

Episode 11 - The yield curve will invert and drive the dollar up. #PolarityRadio 6/12/25

Episode 10 - The Yield curve will invert. Inflation is melting. #PolarityRadio 6/11/25

Episode 9 - Our 5/16/25 flattener forecast is about to breach support. #PolarityRadio 6/10/25

Episode 8 - Flattening 2/10, NOB (10/30), VIX crush 60 -> 16. #PolarityRadio 6/6/25

Episode 7 - Curve flattening, NOB, bond yields and tech will fall. #TMOM 6/5/25

Episode 6 - Curve flattening, lower yields, decaying BTC strength. #TMOM 5/30/25

Polarity Pivot Podcast (5/16/25) - The most important trade is breaking down the 2/10 curve. #TMOM

Polarity Pivot Podcast (4/21/25) - We expect a prompt vega suppression driven rally in FAANGMT. #TMOM

Episode 5 - The 23M 2/10 flattener is the markets biggest pain trade. #TMOM 5/29/25

Episode 4 - The pre-eminent trade across all assets is the flattener #TMOM 5/28/25

Episode 3 - The 23 month curve trade is breaking down. Learn why! #TMOM 5/27/25

Episode 2 - The yield flair will fail. The curve will invert. #TMOM

Episode 1 - The 23 month steepener is failing. It will destroy m2 growth. #TMOM 5/20/25