Are We Overestimating AI’s Disruption? What the Fed Should Really Be Watching | Fed Watch

November 14, 2025 In this week’s episode of Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down how the end of the government shutdown restores critical economic data that the Federal Reserve needs before its December meeting. With mixed signals from policymakers and uncertainty around future rate cuts, how will this renewed data clarity shape monetary policy? Lauren also tackles one of today’s biggest economic questions: Is AI transforming the labor market as much as we think? She highlights new insights from a Yale study showing that while AI boosts productivity, its impact remains gradual — not revolutionary.