Cooler Inflation and Slower Growth should Convert a Fed Skip into a Fed Pause

Markets in the week ahead will be focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged although both the post-meeting statement and the dot plot will likely emphasize that inaction this week should be considered “skipping a rate hike” rather than putting an end to monetary tightening. Indeed, Fed communications could explicitly warn of a possible further rate hike in July. On balance, however, cooling data on inflation and growth between now and that meeting should be enough to convince the Fed that no further tightening is warranted. Some of these data will be released this week.