PODCAST · business
Notes on the Week Ahead
by Dr. David Kelly
Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
Episodes
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A Season of Moderation in the Year of Boom and Doom
This has been a year of distinct seasons for financial markets. The first quarter was dominated by the joint U.S./Israeli attack on Iran and its aftermath. The second was about booming tech earnings. The third quarter saw a sharp rise in long-term interest rates due, in part, to new leadership at...
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The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-over-year inflation rates, as measured by the core…
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The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and three times during the play the music comes to a halt as he...
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The New, New Normal
The era of low growth, low inflation and super-low interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis was christened by Mohamed El-Erian as “The New Normal”. While this episode largely came to an end with the post-pandemic growth and inflation surge, real interest rates had generally…
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Labor Market Mysteries
In a generally upbeat Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh asserted that “labor markets are consistent with full employment”. Given that the current unemployment rate, at 4.1%, is the lowest it’s been in 18 months and is also lower than it has been 88% of the time over the past...
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The Road to $40 Trillion
Money was tight in our early married years. We bought a house we couldn’t afford, purchased a car we couldn’t afford and had all the expenses attendant on the raising of two young boys. However, as we wandered the local mall gazing at all the other things we couldn’t afford, we were always…
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What Lies Beneath: An Updated Outlook on the Economy and Investing
The summer of 2026 has been dominated by the AI boom. Some fear that AI is advancing too quickly for thoughtful regulation. Others worry that end-user revenues will lag too far behind massive capital spending and fast-growing debt. From an economic perspective, AI is pure momentum, generating…
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The People versus Inflation
No one liked the defendant. That much was clear. But when the jury retired to consider their verdict, they hardly knew where to start. The case was so confusing and the judge’s instructions hardly seemed adequate. “Perhaps”, suggested the foreman, “we should start with a list of questions…”
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A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge
The earnings season has started with a blast. As of Friday morning, 49 of the S&P500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings, with 85% beating expectations and the index on track for a blockbuster 23% year-over-year gain for the quarter. According to FactSet, analysts now expect S&P500...
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The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh
Alan Greenspan, who served as Fed Chairman for almost 20 years, died last month at the age of 100. He was a talented and faithful public servant who guided U.S. monetary policy through the stock market crash of 1987, the boom years of the 1990s and the dot-com bubble. He was thoughtful and witty…
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Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the Guide to the Markets, peaks and troughs in consumer sentiment...
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The Healing of Housing
In the pantheon of running injuries, there is a well-established hierarchy. A recreational runner, finishing any marathon, or exerting themselves at half that distance, can expect to come down with delayed onset muscle soreness, otherwise known as DOMS. Starting from barely a twinge at the finish...
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The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Second, Kevin Warsh...
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The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflation fall from here?...
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Investing in a Divergent Economy
Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York through the Appalachians. On a long driving stretch on the way back, we stopped at a Jersey Mike’s just off the highway for some much needed nourishment. As…
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Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little commentary, presumably because the authors feel the numbers speak for themselves. And the numbers do speak rather loudly.
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Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter days were Lady Day (March 25th), Midsummer Day (June 24th), Michaelmas (September 29th) and Christmas Day (December 25th). These were the dates upon...
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AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirmation will likely be delayed until the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell is fully resolved. Despite this, Mr. Warsh’s answers to the...
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The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually burying its consciousness. But once, they were a vibrant part of daily life. Growing up in Dublin in the 1970s and 1980s, there were two evening papers, the...
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The Receding Tariff Tide
A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partners. These tariffs, which were much broader and higher than expected, led to an immediate and sharp decline in stock prices.
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The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded balance sheet. Many academics agree with Warsh – the Fed has often tried to address problems that are not within its remit and with tools not suited to their...
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How Will It End?
One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy, John, who happens to be a financial advisor. Over the course of three hours we solve the problems of the world, reviewing them with dour pessimism at the…
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An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 and into 2027, amidst many distortions and entanglements in economic data and trends. So much has happened since then, including a raft of new economic…
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The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, otherwise known as IEEPA, was illegal. The President held a press conference that afternoon and issued a proclamation...
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Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling solution. In my youth, an unruly shock of hair required liberal doses of the substance just to bring some order to my muppet-like locks. Today, sadly, the…
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Real Economy Challenges
Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down before stabilizing. Bitcoin took a nosedive before achieving a significant, although partial, recovery on Friday. Mega-cap tech stocks posted huge earnings...
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The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as Fed governor. He has also annunciated a broad philosophy that the Fed has moved too far from its original mandate by promoting ESG objectives and in…
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The Direction of the Fed
Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will hold its first meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday. While they will likely leave interest rates on hold, any dissents on that decision and...
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International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
Americans don’t like fruit cake. This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family Christmas cake. It is a divine confection - currants, sultanas, cherries, candied peel and almonds, liberally presoaked in whiskey and then folded in with...
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A Baseline Forecast for 2026
Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multiple layers of confusion and a forecast has to address these issues first before tracing out a possible path forward.
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Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesota and North Dakota. It then crosses into Manitoba and empties into Lake Winnipeg before its waters finally flow into the sea at Hudson Bay. Cities have grown...
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Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yield curve and so are important for investors.
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The Outlook for Autos
When I first arrived in America, America seemed to be all about cars. It was the early 1980s, and I had come over from Ireland to do a Ph.D. in economics at Michigan State University. The campus was strewn with the hand-me-down vehicles of the student body – great gas-guzzling behemoths rendered...
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The Health of the Consumer
I was watching a football game over the weekend and I saw a giant lineman go down. He was in obvious pain and hobbled, assisted and very slowly, to the sideline. The TV commentators, to my amazement, said he didn’t look too bad and he was probably healthy enough to return to the field in a snap…
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Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
In our age of overwhelming technological progress, I still cling to the simpler practices of my youth. I read books rather than tablets, write with an ink pen in cursive rather than text with my thumbs, and attempt to use mental arithmetic, rather than a calculator, in solving math problems. I…
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The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
I was rewatching Apollo 13 over the weekend - a fabulous movie, by the way, if you’ve never seen it - about how, in 1970, three astronauts returned safely to Earth following an explosion on their spacecraft, two days into a journey to the Moon. Among the many problems faced by the crew and…
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Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster
This quarter, we dropped the oil page from our Guide to the Markets. There are always exactly 65 pages in the Guide, so when we want to add a page, we have to get rid of one. The process is, unfortunately, democratic, so when my younger colleagues wanted to add pages illustrating U.S. equity…
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Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
One of the more challenging positions in football is that of place kicker for the visiting team. In theory, the job is simple – boot the ball through the middle of the uprights. However, there is a raucous crowd cheerfully doing its best to distract you. There are often swirling winds or other...
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The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
As we enter the second week of the government shutdown, markets appear unconcerned. Last week, the S&P500 rose to an all-time record high, 10-year Treasury yields edged down and, while the dollar slipped slightly, measures of volatility across stocks, bonds and currencies all remained subdued.
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Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
As I get older, my memory gets a little foggier. That being said, I believe it was at lunch at a restaurant near our office on Friday, March 6th, 2009, when I and the then three other members of the Market Insights Team, Andy, Marlene and Jerry, made a bet. That day, although we didn’t know it at...
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Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
When engaged in the dark arts of foretelling the Fed’s words and actions, I have always adopted what might be called the “prudent economist rule”. What would a prudent economist, serving as a Fed banker, do - assuming that they were armed with a reasonable economic forecast and with due...
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Rate Rescue Reality Check
Stocks rallied in the immediate aftermath of Friday’s dismal jobs report, with the S&P500 jumping 0.5% to an all-time high of 6,532 when the market opened at 9:30AM. While this gain faded to a loss by the end of the day, the initial surge can only be rationalized in one way: investors bought…
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Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
American summers, much more so than in the rest of the world, are defined by two bookends: Memorial Day and Labor Day. As a result, the first week in September is always a time to review and plan. This is particularly important for investors this year since, facing a barrage of unsettling…
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The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
On August 7th, with little fanfare, the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA, it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 forms for the current calendar year but would provide guidance and new forms, in due course, for calendar 2026. This seemingly innocuous statement...
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Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
One of the great challenges of modern life is avoiding distractions. In our daily lives, we are flooded by breaking news, music on planes, ads in taxis and little numbers, gazing up at us from phone apps, saying that somebody has something to say. In the investment world, we are bombarded by...
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The Inflation Outlook
The inflation temperature is about to rise. It should be a low-grade fever, triggered by tariff impacts but mitigated by low energy prices, declines in shelter inflation and global economic sluggishness. But it should also linger well above the Fed’s 2% target, as the initial impact of tariffs is...
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The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
This is a particularly challenging time to try to develop and present a balanced view of the economic outlook and its implications for investors. This is partly due to dramatic changes in trade, immigration and fiscal policies that are just beginning to impact the economy, partly due to…
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The Fed Decisions
For investors, the week ahead will be dominated by the Fed decisions. Possibly, some AI chatbot will spot the obvious grammatical error in that last sentence and change it from “the Fed decisions” to “the Fed’s decision”. However, there are really two decisions to consider: First, what will the…
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Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
As you make your way through Terminal 5 in Heathrow airport, there are plenty of opportunities to buy a T-shirt bearing the slogan “Keep Calm and Carry On”. The wearer of such a garment, upon their return to the United States, is presumably advertising the idea that a visit to the blessed plot…
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The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some satisfaction. Through July 3rd, the S&P500 provided a total return of 7.5% for the year, despite being on the brink of a bear market just three months...
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Notes on the Week Ahead have?
Notes on the Week Ahead currently has 354 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Notes on the Week Ahead about?
Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
How often does Notes on the Week Ahead release new episodes?
Notes on the Week Ahead publishes regularly with 354 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
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You can listen to Notes on the Week Ahead on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Notes on the Week Ahead?
Notes on the Week Ahead is created and hosted by Dr. David Kelly.
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