Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:24 The Tension of Deployment3:46 Market Positioning Updates4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value11:44 Market Value to Realized Value15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions33:17 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.