PODCAST · business
The DeFi Report
by Michael Nadeau
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
Episodes
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Is Crypto Ready for Its Next Leg Up?
Fear has returned to crypto, but the next rally may be closer than it looks. Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s resilience amid a sharp altcoin selloff, the holder rotation driving its consolidation, and why seller exhaustion could set up the next move. They also discuss the $87K breakout level,...
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Early Bull Reset? Why 2026 Looks Like 2023
An early bull market doesn’t always feel bullish. Mike and Ryan compare today’s crypto setup to 2023, when Bitcoin chopped sideways for seven months before its next major rally. They break down Mike’s 90% early-bull conviction, the critical 50-week moving average, and why BTC could remain...
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Bitcoin Leads the Next Move…$78K or $90K?
Bitcoin is entering a critical decision point. Mike and Ryan break down why a pullback toward $78K could still be healthy, what a move through $90K could unlock, and why Bitcoin’s next move may set the tone for the broader market. They also cover improving macro conditions, stock-market strength,...
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Macro Concerns? Crypto’s Bull Case vs. Rising Rates
Crypto is acting like a bull market even as macro risks keep building. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin and altcoins are shrugging off rising yields, rate-hike fears, and oil volatility, what the market reset is signaling, and why Mike still believes crypto is early in a new cycle. They also...
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Is the "Early Bull" Actually Confirmed?
Mike is finally ready to call it: Bitcoin has likely entered the early-bull phase. Mike and Ryan break down the Golden Cross, the reclaim of the 50-week moving average, the market-structure reset, and why seller exhaustion has pushed Mike’s confidence to 85%. They also cover fading macro fears,...
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Guide to Navigating the Next Crypto Bull Run
Bitcoin may be entering the first inning of a new bull market, and TDR thinks this cycle could be bigger than the last. Mike and Ryan break down the signals that would confirm the shift, the four stages of a crypto cycle, and how they plan to position through each phase. They also cover the…
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Onchain Activity is Heating Up…What Comes Next?
Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. Mike and Ryan break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares with early 2023. They also dive into PUMP vs. PONS, Robinhood Chain’s breakout,...
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Bitcoin’s Early Bull? The $69.4K Test
Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. Mike and Ryan break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K is the key level to watch, and how the Treasury “put” is reshaping the macro backdrop....
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The Case for a New Crypto Bull Market
Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and how Treasury intervention in long-term yields changed the macro setup. They also cover...
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Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle?
🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded....
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QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test
Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover...
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Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Is This Rally a Trap?
The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already…
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Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes?
The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the...
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Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming?
Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss...
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TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio
Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE...
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Is the Bitcoin Low Really In?
Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW &...
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Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush?
Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE…
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Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle?
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL...
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Bitcoin’s Bottom Case, ETF Outflows & The No-Buyers Problem
Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real...
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Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?"
Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could…
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Bitcoin’s $60K Test Just Got More Serious
Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake market confidence, why ETF outflows are piling up, and why assets like Zcash, HYPE,...
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Bitcoin’s Unfinished Pain & Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?
Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why ETF outflows and Saylor’s bond move matter, and the macro risks that could force another...
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Signs of a Cycle Bottom?
Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer cohorts are still signaling, and how inflation, rising yields, and a potential Fed…
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Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising
Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be...
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Are we still in a bear market rally?
Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling…
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Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time
Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes...
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Why This Rally May Be Too Early
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early....
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The Bottom Is Not In! Why We Get 4-Year Cycles
Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a...
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Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins?
Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding. Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain,...
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BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities
Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived. Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more...
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Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown
The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating? Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep…
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Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?
Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally? Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market...
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Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks
Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner...
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Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)
Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for...
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Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update
Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself,...
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What is the bond market telling us?
Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com…
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Where do we go from here?
In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what…
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What does the new Fed Chair mean for Crypto?
In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big...
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Why is Bitcoin Underperforming Gold?
In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a...
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Constructing a Portfolio
In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan lay out Mike’s full portfolio construction framework for a crypto bear market. We walk through how he sizes Bitcoin as the anchor, how core and high-beta assets fit into the cycle, and why price matters more than narratives right now. Mike also...
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Next Stop $100k?
Bitcoin is pushing toward $100K, but is the move real or just a positioning unwind? Mike and Ryan break down the CPI surprise, real rates and breakevens, why global liquidity still looks like it’s rolling over, and what the onchain data says about true demand, from ETF flows to long term holder...
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Our Outlook for 2026
📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- Today on The DeFi Report, we’re mapping the 2026 setup: shifting fiscal flows, tighter liquidity, and why rate cuts are not…
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Was the Fed Rate Cut a False Signal for Crypto?
The Fed cut rates and announced $40B/month in T bill purchases. Is that the signal to buy back into crypto? Mike says no. In this episode, we explain why “QE light” is not real easing, the key indicators Mike needs before flipping risk on, and what Bitcoin’s onchain market structure suggests…
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
HOSTED BY
Michael Nadeau
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does The DeFi Report have?
The DeFi Report currently has 43 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The DeFi Report about?
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
How often does The DeFi Report release new episodes?
The DeFi Report has 43 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to The DeFi Report?
You can listen to The DeFi Report on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts The DeFi Report?
The DeFi Report is created and hosted by Michael Nadeau.
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