Why the Ten-Year Yield Won't Break Five Despite Sticky Inflation

The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.50 percent, but core inflation is still running hot and consumer sentiment just hit a fresh record low. So why isn't the bond market pushing yields higher? Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40 percent, the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.64, and the surprising calm in long-term yields. They look at what the bond market is pricing in — a soft landing, maybe a cut late this year — and whether that optimism is justified. Lucas points to the wedge between short-term and long-term yields as a signal that the market believes the Fed's current stance is tight enough to eventually slow the economy, even if inflation hasn't cooperated yet. Luna asks whether the bond market is being too patient, and they discuss what could break the calm: a supply shock, a geopolitical event, or another inflation surprise. Episode 13 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BondMarket #TenYearYield #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FOMC #TreasuryYields #Investing #ConsumerSentiment #SoftLanding #BreakevenRate #FedFundsRate #CentralBanking #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo