The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

With the Treasury General Account fluctuating wildly and foreign reserves shifting globally, we explore how the Federal Reserve navigates liquidity without explicit balance sheet changes. We look at why August’s data suggests a hidden squeeze on bank reserves and what it means for rate policy heading into September. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #TreasuryGeneralAccount #BankReserves #LiquidityCrisis #InterestRates #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macroeconomics #InflationData #CorePCE #FedFundsRate #GlobalTrade #CurrencyMarkets #FinancialStability #EconomicAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The August jobs report delivered one of the most confusing signals for monetary policy in recent memory. With payrolls rising by one hundred and sixty-two thousand—far exceeding expectations—and the unemployment rate holding steady at four point one percent, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky dilemma. Lucas and Luna break down why this specific combination of strong hiring and stable unemployment is causing such friction in markets today. We explore how the labor market’s gendered shift, where women accounted for almost all job gains, complicates the Fed's inflation outlook. Is this strength sustainable, or does it mask underlying fragility? Plus, we look at how Japan’s massive foreign reserve drop impacts global capital flows right as the U.S. debates its next rate move. #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #AugustJobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #UnemploymentRate #InflationOutlook #FedFundsRate #EconomicData #JapanYen #GlobalMarkets #BusinessNews #FinanceTalk #Macroeconomics #HiringTrends #WageGrowth #InterestRates #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

As August payrolls surprised to the upside and unemployment held at four point one percent, a quiet structural shift is reshaping the American labor market. We examine how the personal protection industry has ballooned into a fifty billion dollar sector, driven by rising insurance premiums and shifting consumer behavior. Lucas and Luna break down why this isn't just about crime stats, but about wage pressure, service costs, and the hidden tax on everyday living in September twenty twenty six. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LaborMarket #Inflation #PrivateSecurity #WagePressure #ConsumerSpending #ServiceSector #InsuranceCosts #AugustJobsReport #UnemploymentRate #FedPolicy #CostOfLiving #LaborFriction #RiskManagement #UrbanSafety #GDP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

August payrolls rose 162,000 with women driving nearly all the gains while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna explore why this K-shaped labor recovery is forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its dual mandate. With the Fed Funds effective rate sitting at 3.63 percent and core PCE still sticky, we examine how demographic shifts in hiring are reshaping wage pressure and policy expectations. #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #AugustJobsReport #UnemploymentRate #WomenInWorkforce #WagePressure #CorePCE #FedFundsRate #EconomicAnalysis #BusinessPodcast #FinanceNews #EconomicsDaily #FexingoBusiness #LucasAndLuna #HiringTrends #InflationData #JobGains Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The August jobs report showed a surprise gain of one hundred sixty-two thousand payrolls with unemployment holding at four point one percent, yet women accounted for almost all the new hires. Lucas and Luna break down why this gender-split labor data complicates the Federal Reserve's inflation calculus. They examine how core PCE remaining sticky near two point three percent in breakevens, combined with Governor Waller’s dovish stance, creates a policy dilemma. The conversation explores whether the Fed will hold rates steady at their September meeting or if the labor market's hidden friction signals a need for caution. This episode dissects the mechanics behind the headline number, explaining why the quality of job growth matters more than the quantity when setting monetary policy for late summer 2026. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #AugustJobsReport #InflationData #CorePCE #InterestRates #FOMC #UnemploymentRate #EconomicAnalysis #Macroeconomics #FedPolicy #JobGrowth #WagePressure #ConsumerSpending #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #FinanceNews Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the September FOMC meeting days away, market participants are fixated on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates or hold steady. While headline inflation has cooled, underlying labor market dynamics tell a more complex story. This episode examines the divergence between softening job growth and persistent wage pressures, using recent ADP data and core PCE readings to decode the Fed's likely path. We explore why Governor Waller’s recent comments signal caution and how structural shifts in hiring patterns are forcing policymakers to rethink their dual mandate approach in late 2026. #FederalReserve #FOMCMeeting #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #LaborMarket #InflationData #EconomicForecast #WageGrowth #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #CentralBanking #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #FedWatch #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FinanceNews Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the S&P 500 down nearly one percent over the last five days and Treasury yields climbing, the market is signaling anxiety about liquidity. But while traders focus on the ten-year yield hitting 4.79 percent, the Federal Reserve has a different metric on its dashboard. We explore why the central bank is quietly shifting its attention to the level of bank reserves in the banking system. With private payrolls coming in weak at just 38,000 in August, the risk isn't just inflation anymore—it's whether there is enough cushion in the financial plumbing to handle a sudden shock. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of reserve scarcity, how the Fed uses interest on reserve balances to steer rates, and why a silent drain in deposits could trigger volatility even if headline inflation looks tame. #FederalReserve #BankReserves #MonetaryPolicy #LiquidityRisk #InterestOnReserves #TreasuryYields #FinancialStability #InflationData #PrivatePayrolls #FedPolicy #MoneyMarkets #BankingSystem #EconomicIndicators #MarketVolatility #FinanceNews #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicsShow Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape in September 2026. With the S&P 500 down over half a percent this week and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to nearly 4.8%, markets are signaling stress. But Lucas and Luna argue the real danger isn't just inflation or growth—it's the quiet drying up of liquidity in the repo market. They explore how falling bank reserves and rising short-term rates could trigger a sudden freeze in financial plumbing, forcing the Fed to choose between fighting inflation and preventing a systemic crunch. This episode breaks down the mechanics of the repurchase agreement market, why the current level of reserves matters less than their distribution, and what history teaches us about sudden stops. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RepoMarket #LiquidityCrisis #BankReserves #InterestOnReserves #TreasuryYields #FinancialStability #Macroeconomics #FOMC #SPLending #MoneyMarkets #EconomicAnalysis #FinanceNews #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #LucasAndLuna #CentralBanking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The ten-year breakeven inflation rate has dipped to 2.31 percent, down from 2.33 last week. That small move might be the most telling signal in the bond market right now. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what breakevens actually measure, why the Fed's favorite inflation gauge—core PCE—is running hotter than the market's expectations, and what it means when the two start to diverge. They look at how the five-year breakeven has drifted lower even as the ten-year holds near 2.3, and why that flattening curve is a quiet vote of confidence in the Fed's path. With the effective fed funds rate pinned at 3.63 percent and interest on reserve balances at 3.65, the hosts explain how breakevens shape the Fed's forward guidance and why a 2.31 handle could keep the door open for policy patience into 2027. If you've ever wondered what the bond market is really saying about inflation, this episode gives you the tools to read it. #InflationExpectations #BreakevenRate #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #CorePCE #TenYearTreasury #ForwardGuidance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #InterestRates #MarketSignals #Inflation #CentralBank #TIPS #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but significant shift at the Federal Reserve: the slow drift in how the central bank manages the floor under money market rates. They anchor the conversation in the August 2026 data, noting the interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and explain why the gap between these two numbers matters more than ever. The episode drills into the Fed's new 'floor system' — how it works, why it's been under strain as reserves become scarcer, and what the recent uptick in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR, tells us about liquidity. Lucas and Luna also discuss why the Fed might be quietly tolerating a higher effective rate than its official target, and what that means for your money market fund and mortgage. They close with a forward-looking question: will the Fed eventually ditch the floor for a corridor, or is this just a temporary patch? #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #BankReserves #Liquidity #MoneyMarket #SOFR #FedFundsRate #IOER #ONRRP #Economics #CentralBanking #Finance #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy #FedPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The economy is growing, but not for everyone. This episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast digs into the K-shaped recovery — the split between upper-income consumers and everyone else — and why it matters for monetary policy. Lucas and Luna break down the latest core PCE reading of 3.3 percent annual inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, and what it tells us about the central bank's next move. They also look at the yield curve, where the ten-year Treasury sits at 4.72 percent, and how that's sending signals about growth expectations. If the top half of the economy is booming while the bottom half struggles, does the Fed raise rates or hold? We explore the hawkish comments from Fed officials like Beth Hammack, who says 'now is the time to act,' and what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at the Treasury General Account and how the Fed's balance sheet interacts with fiscal policy. If you've ever wondered why the Fed seems to talk out of both sides of its mouth, this episode offers a clear lens. Tune in for a sharp, accessible breakdown of a complex economic moment. #KShapedRecovery #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CorePCE #Inflation #InterestRates #FOMC #TreasuryGeneralAccount #YieldCurve #EconomicRecovery #Economics #BusinessNews #Finance #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBank #RateHikes Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Core inflation came in hotter than expected in July, with the Fed's preferred gauge rising 0.3 percent for the month. That nudges the annual rate to 3.3 percent, well above the Fed's two percent target. On this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what the core PCE reading means for the Fed's timeline and the market's reaction. They break down why the two-year yield has room to drift higher, how policy expectations have shifted since the June FOMC meeting, and why the Fed's preferred inflation measure matters more than the headline CPI. They also explore the interplay between interest on reserve balances, the effective fed funds rate, and the Fed's ability to steer short-term rates as the balance sheet shrinks. With the Fed in a holding pattern, the conversation turns to how much weight the central bank places on a single data point versus the broader trend. A must-listen for anyone tracking the Fed's next move. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #FedWatch #TwoYearYield #TreasuryYields #BalanceSheet #Economics #Economy #Investing #Markets #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking #PriceStability Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the Treasury General Account reportedly near one trillion dollars and bond buybacks back in the headlines, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed's balance sheet runoff really means for markets. They connect the dots between the Fed's quantitative tightening, the plumbing of money markets, and the Treasury's cash management strategy. Using the latest data — including the fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent — they explain why the gap between these two rates matters and how the Fed's tools are evolving. The episode drills into the mechanics of the overnight reverse repurchase facility, the potential for a new standing repo facility, and what Treasury buybacks could mean for the Fed's independence. If you've ever wondered why the Fed's balance sheet matters beyond the headlines, this episode gives you the concrete framework to understand it. #TreasuryBuybacks #FedBalanceSheet #QuantitativeTightening #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #TreasuryGeneralAccount #MoneyMarkets #OvernightReverseRepo #StandingRepoFacility #InterestOnReserveBalances #FedFundsRate #CentralBankPlumbing #Economics #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is the government's checking account at the Fed. It's usually a dry technical detail, but in August 2026 it's become a flashpoint. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has floated using the TGA's near-trillion-dollar balance to fund bond buybacks, a move designed to ease pressure on the long end of the curve. Critics like Stanley Druckenmiller say it's financial engineering that won't work and could even backfire. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Fed cares about the TGA at all, how a drawdown would ripple through bank reserves and money markets, and what the data from the past week—like the ten-year yield holding near 4.7 percent—tells us about the stakes. They also look at the political dimension: the debt ceiling, government shutdowns, and the limits of Treasury discretion. If you've ever wondered what the Treasury's cash balance has to do with your mortgage rate, this one's for you. #TreasuryGeneralAccount #FederalReserve #ScottBessent #StanleyDruckenmiller #BondBuybacks #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TGA #Liquidity #DebtCeiling #Economics #CentralBanking #MoneyMarkets #USTreasury #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance #MarketLiquidity Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is the checking account the U.S. Treasury keeps at the Federal Reserve. Its balance swings by hundreds of billions of dollars, and those swings matter for bank reserves, money-market rates, and the Fed's balance-sheet plans. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explain how the TGA works, why the Fed watches it so closely, and how a near-$1 trillion balance could factor into Treasury buybacks and funding markets. They discuss the mechanics of the TGA, its impact on reserves and the repo market, and what the recent decline in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate might signal. If you've ever wondered why the Fed's balance sheet and the Treasury's cash management are intertwined, or how the TGA affects the rates you see in money-market funds, this episode makes it clear. We also touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances, the effective federal funds rate, and the broader liquidity picture as of August 2026. #TreasuryGeneralAccount #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #TGA #BankReserves #MoneyMarketRates #RepoMarket #TreasuryBuybacks #Bessent #Liquidity #FedBalanceSheet #InterestOnReserveBalances #FederalFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #Treasury #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Treasury General Account is back in focus as Washington weighs near-trillion-dollar buybacks to calm the bond market — and the Fed is watching closely. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the TGA is, how it affects bank reserves and money markets, and why the Fed's balance sheet math gets complicated when the Treasury starts spending. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and the ten-year yield near 4.7 percent, the stakes are real. They also discuss why Bessent's bond gambit is stirring inflation worries and what tools remain. A listener-supported show, Fexingo keeps this podcast ad-free thanks to monthly contributions. #TreasuryGeneralAccount #TreasuryBuybacks #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MoneyMarkets #BankReserves #FedFundsRate #BondMarket #InflationWorries #Bessent #TGA #Economics #CentralBank #Liquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FinancePodcast #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's latest balancing act as the U.S. government debt crosses $40 trillion and Treasury yields climb. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.74 percent and the two-year at 3.71, the Fed faces a delicate dance: keeping inflation in check while avoiding a fiscal crisis. The conversation centers on Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent bond-buyback operation, which aimed to calm markets but instead stirred inflation worries. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the buyback, the implications for the Fed's balance sheet, and why the central bank might soon have to choose between fighting inflation and supporting fiscal stability. Luna challenges the Fed's credibility, pointing to the disconnect between the Fed's 3.63 percent funds rate and market expectations. They also discuss the silent pressure from the $40 trillion debt, and what it means for the Fed's independence. This episode offers a clear-eyed look at the tough choices facing the Fed in late August 2026. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Bessent #TreasuryBuybacks #DebtCeiling #Inflation #BondMarket #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearYield #EconomicPolicy #Economy #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedIndependence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that just crossed a striking threshold: the U.S. national debt has passed $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. With the Fed Funds rate sitting at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.74 percent, the cost of servicing that debt is starting to matter for monetary policy. Lucas explains the Fed's delicate dance — how rising interest payments constrain the Fed's ability to fight inflation, and why the central bank is now watching Treasury buybacks as a potential tool to ease market stress. They unpack the June PCE data showing core prices still creeping up, and what a 2.34 percent ten-year breakeven really means for inflation expectations. A focused look at how the bond market's message is shaping the Fed's next move, without the usual jargon. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #DebtCeiling #USDebt #TreasuryYield #Inflation #InterestRates #PCE #TreasuryBuybacks #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #FedWatch #BondMarket #FiscalPolicy #CentralBank #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The U.S. Treasury has started buying back its own bonds again — a tool not used in decades. On this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what Treasury buybacks are, why the government is using them now, and what it means for inflation, the $40 trillion debt pile, and your portfolio. They look at the recent $4 billion buyback operation, the rise in ten-year breakevens to 2.34 percent, and what the Treasury's gambit means for the Fed's inflation fight. If you've heard 'Treasury buyback' in the news and wondered what it actually is, this episode explains it clearly — with the numbers and the stakes. #TreasuryBuybacks #ScottBessent #USTreasury #40TrillionDebt #Inflation #BondMarket #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Economics #FiscalPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DebtManagement #Breakevens #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what that number means for the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to fight inflation. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 and the ten-year Treasury at 4.70, the cost of servicing that debt is becoming a political flashpoint. We explore the delicate balance the Fed faces: raising rates to cool inflation versus the pressure to keep borrowing costs low. The conversation touches on Treasury buybacks, budget deficits, and why the Fed's credibility hinges on staying above the political fray. If you've ever wondered how the government's debt load shapes monetary policy, this episode breaks it down with real numbers and clear context. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #NationalDebt #USTreasury #InterestRates #Inflation #FOMC #Economics #Business #Finance #CentralBanking #DebtCeiling #TreasuryBuybacks #Bessent #FedIndependence #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomyExplained Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the Fed is watching the University of Michigan's inflation expectations survey more closely than ever. With the ten-year breakeven rate creeping up to 2.30 percent and core PCE still sticky, the hosts dissect how consumer sentiment data has become a key input for monetary policy. They discuss the survey's methodology, its recent trend, and what a potential spike in long-run expectations could mean for rate decisions. Along the way, they touch on the Fed's communication challenges and why even a single data point can shift the narrative. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand the psychology behind inflation and the central bank's reaction function. #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #UniversityOfMichigan #ConsumerSentiment #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CorePCE #BreakevenRates #Economics #CentralBanking #FederalReservePodcast #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economy #Inflation #FedWatch #MacroEconomics #PolicyMaking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the Federal Reserve's latest quiet but crucial intervention: using its standing repo facility to cap money market rates. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and the interest on reserve balances at 3.65, the gap is wider than usual, signaling subtle strain. They break down how the facility works, why the Fed is using it now, and what it tells us about the central bank's shifting operational playbook. Listeners will learn how a technical backstop can influence broader financial conditions, and why the recent uptick in repo usage matters for the economy. If you've ever wondered what the Fed does behind the scenes to keep markets humming, this episode unpacks one of its most underrated tools. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RepoMarket #StandingRepoFacility #MoneyMarket #FedFundsRate #InterestOnReserves #Liquidity #CentralBank #Economics #Finance #MarketInfrastructure #RateControl #FOMC #USTreasury #BankingSystem #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Federal Reserve has been quietly building a new set of tools to control short-term interest rates, and it's changing how the central bank steers the economy. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the Fed's latest innovation—the Standing Repo Facility—and why it matters for inflation and your money market fund. They explore how the facility works, the numbers behind it, and what it tells us about the Fed's battle with sticky core inflation. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and core CPI still climbing, the conversation gets into why the Fed might need this steadying hand. It's a fresh look at a tool that's quietly reshaping monetary policy—and a reminder that the Fed's toolkit is never as simple as a single rate cut. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MoneyMarketRates #StandingRepoFacility #InterestRates #Inflation #CoreCPI #FedFundsRate #CentralBanking #Economics #Liquidity #RepoMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #FedPolicy #RateControl #FinancialMarkets Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a quiet but significant shift in how the Fed manages short-term interest rates. With the effective federal funds rate sitting at 3.63 percent and the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, the Fed has been relying on a new tool: the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility. Lucas explains why this facility has become the Fed's preferred way to keep the federal funds rate within its target range, and why it matters for money market funds and banks. They also look at the latest data, including a flat CPI reading and a dip in ten-year breakevens, to understand how inflation expectations are evolving. If you've ever wondered how the Fed actually implements its policy decisions, this episode breaks it down with concrete examples and a clear explanation of the mechanics. Tune in to learn about the tool that has quietly become the centerpiece of the Fed's operational framework. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #MoneyMarkets #ReverseRepo #FedFundsRate #CPI #Inflation #Breakevens #Economics #CentralBanking #Liquidity #FOMC #PolicyImplementation #FinancialSystem #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the gap between the CPI and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index. With CPI ticking up in July but core PCE cooling in the latest reading, the hosts explain why the Fed leans on PCE, how the weights differ, and what the 10-year breakeven rate—now at 2.27 percent—says about market expectations. They walk through the Fed's internal debate: is the recent CPI pop a signal or noise? And they discuss why the Fed might not react to one month of data, even as some officials push for a more hawkish stance. Along the way, they touch on the policy rate at 3.63 percent, the interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, and what all this means for the path of rate cuts. A clear, focused explanation for anyone who wants to understand the Fed's thinking beyond the headlines. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #InterestRates #FOMC #BreakevenRate #RealRate #FedFundsRate #EconomicData #CentralBanking #Economics #Markets #Policy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macroeconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The two-year Treasury yield has been sending mixed signals, rising and then falling as markets parse the Fed's next move. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this specific maturity so closely, what the recent swings suggest about rate expectations, and why the yield curve's message might be more reliable than the latest CPI print. They discuss the current level near 3.70 percent, the Fed's effective rate at 3.63, and the ten-year breakeven falling to 2.24 percent. They also touch on the July CPI report and what it means for the Fed's inflation fight. If you've ever wondered why the two-year yield dominates Fed commentary, this episode gives you the framework to understand it. #FederalReserve #TwoYearYield #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Inflation #CPI #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #EconomicData #Economics #BusinessPodcast #Finance #RateHikes #FedWatch #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's benchmark rate has been parked at 3.63 percent since July, but the July CPI report shows inflation at 3.4 percent, while the ten-year breakeven rate dipped to 2.27. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's subtle signals that it hasn't closed the door to another hike—even as markets assume the next move is a cut. They discuss the central bank's language around 'adjustments' versus 'cuts,' why the two-year yield's recent rise complicates the narrative, and what the budget deficit's July surge means for Treasury supply. With the FOMC minutes due soon, they break down what to watch for in the Fed's own words. The hosts also touch on how AI's power-hungry data centers are feeding inflation in the services sector, a factor the Fed can't ignore. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #FOMC #TwoYearYield #TreasuryYields #BreakevenRates #BudgetDeficit #AIDataCenters #ServicesInflation #RateHikes #RateCuts #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the recent moves in the two-year Treasury yield and why it has become the Fed's favorite market signal. They explore the mechanics of how the two-year yield reflects rate expectations, the recent rise in the yield to 4.69 percent while the Fed holds steady, and what this means for the policy path in the fall. They also discuss the disappointing July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, and how that feeds into the Fed's data-dependent approach. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.29 percent, the hosts break down the signals the bond market is sending about inflation and growth. Tune in for a clear, nuanced look at how the Fed reads the yield curve and what it means for your money. #FederalReserve #TwoYearYield #BondMarket #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #JobsReport #Inflation #BreakevenRate #Economy #Economics #Business #Finance #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBank #RateHike Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The July jobs report landed with a jolt: a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first outright decline in years, while the unemployment rate held steady. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the Fed actually sees in these numbers—and why the headline misses the point. They break down the signal in the ADP private payroll figure of 44,000, the cooling in wage growth, and how the Fed's own projections now point to a rate cut in September, despite the sticky core PCE reading of 130.3. With the two-year Treasury yield drifting lower and the ten-year breakeven easing to 2.25, the hosts explain how the bond market and the Fed are slowly converging on the same story: slower growth, not a recession. If you've ever wondered why the Fed seems to react to jobs reports with a lag, or why a single payroll number can shift rate expectations, this episode walks you through the logic—and the risks of reading too much into one month's data. A focused, practical look at how central bankers separate signal from noise. #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket #FedWatch #RateCut #ADP #WageGrowth #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro #CentralBank #EconomicData #JulyJobs Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine a subtle but critical signal the Federal Reserve is monitoring after the disappointing July jobs report: wage growth. With the U.S. economy unexpectedly losing 23,000 jobs in July, the hosts drill into why the Fed cares more about average hourly earnings than the headline payroll number. They explain how the wage-price spiral could re-ignite inflation even as CPI cools, and why the central bank's preferred PCE measure might be lagging. Using the latest data—core PCE ticking up while headline CPI fell—they unpack the internal debate: is the labor market softening enough to justify a rate cut, or is wage pressure too sticky? Listeners will learn one concrete thing: why a 0.3 percent month-over-month wage gain can outweigh a job loss in the Fed's calculus, and what that means for the next FOMC meeting. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #WageGrowth #Inflation #JobsReport #FOMC #InterestRates #LaborMarket #CorePCE #CPI #Economics #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #FedWatch #PolicyAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why the July jobs report landed with a thud and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. They unpack the unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs, the slowdown in private hiring, and how the Fed is interpreting these numbers against the backdrop of easing inflation. With the two-year Treasury yield ticking up and the ten-year breakeven rate dipping, they explain what the bond market is signaling about the Fed's policy path. This isn't just about the headline number—it's about the wage signal, the breadth of job losses, and the Fed's internal debate over whether to prioritize employment or price stability. Listeners get a concrete framework for reading the next jobs report and understanding how the Fed is likely to weigh the data in its upcoming meeting. #JobsReport #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #LaborMarket #InterestRates #BondMarket #WageGrowth #Economics #FOMC #Employment #August2026 #BLSData #FedWatch #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

After the July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, the Federal Reserve is parsing more than just the headline. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed watches the wage growth component closely, how a cooling labor market interacts with sticky core inflation, and what the recent rise in ten-year breakevens tells us about market expectations. They also unpack the disconnect between the ADP private payroll number and the official count, and what it means for the Fed's next move. If you've ever wondered how the Fed reads the monthly jobs data, this episode breaks it down with specific numbers and clear context, including the latest Fed funds rate and inflation figures. Learn why wage growth might matter more than the headline job count, and how the central bank balances a softening labor market against still-elevated price pressures. A concrete, jargon-free look at the data point that could shape the next FOMC decision. #FederalReserve #JobsReport #WageGrowth #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #LaborMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Finance #Investing #CentralBank #InterestRates #Breakevens #ADP #CoreInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into one specific signal the Fed is tracking this August: the curve between the short end and the long end, and the real rate that sits underneath. With the effective fed funds rate pinned at 3.63 percent and the ten-year Treasury near 4.67 percent, the spread is telling a story about where the economy is headed. They examine why a steeper curve usually means optimism, but right now it's being driven by falling inflation expectations and stubborn real rates. The conversation centers on the ten-year breakeven at 2.22 percent, what that says about the Fed's credibility, and how chair Kevin Warsh's latest comments reflect the internal debate. Lucas and Luna connect the dots to the July jobs report and the surprising 44,000 ADP number, and ask whether the Fed's patience is a risk or a sign of confidence. If you want to understand why the yield curve is suddenly a four-alarm fire for the Fed, this episode gives you the framework. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #RealRate #Breakeven #InflationExpectations #KevinWarsh #ADP #JulyJobs #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #FOMC #Economics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On the 150th episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a data point the Fed has quietly been leaning on: the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. With imported-goods inflation cooling but the manufacturing survey flashing 'worse than pandemic era' price worries, the hosts explain why the Fed tracks the flow of shipping containers, port backlogs, and freight rates — and how a 1.2-point drop in the index helped justify the current pause. They also unpack the July ADP report's shockingly soft 44,000 private payrolls and what it means for the Fed's dual mandate. Along the way, they take a brief, honest moment about how listener support keeps the show ad-free, with a mention of buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. If you've ever wondered how the Fed separates noise from signal in a data fog, this episode is your decoder ring. #FederalReserve #SupplyChain #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #ADPReport #FOMC #LaborMarket #Manufacturing #GlobalTrade #ShippingCosts #BreakevenRates #CorePCE #Economics #Finance #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack the Federal Reserve's subtle pivot toward the real interest rate — the nominal rate minus inflation expectations — and why it matters right now. With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and ten-year breakevens sliding to 2.27 percent, the real rate has quietly climbed to levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. The hosts explain how this shift is shaping the Fed's reaction function under Chair Kevin Warsh, why a divided FOMC is reading the same data differently, and what a rising real rate means for equities, housing, and the labor market. They also revisit the Fed's own estimates of the neutral rate, which the Fed now pegs around 0.5 to 0.7 percent real — a number that suddenly looks restrictive against the current 1.36 percent real rate. With fresh data showing core PCE still sticky at 3.3 percent, Lucas and Luna debate whether the Fed can afford to let the real rate do the tightening for them. A must-listen for anyone trying to decode the next FOMC move. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #RealRate #Inflation #FOMC #KevinWarsh #FedPivot #CorePCE #Breakeven #NeutralRate #Economics #Economy #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Macro #Investing #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising new signal that has Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's attention: a manufacturing survey from August 2026 showing price pressures 'worse than the pandemic era.' While headline CPI is cooling and the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 percent, this factory-level inflation reading hints at a different story. They unpack what the survey's price index actually measures, why it conflicts with softer consumer inflation data, and whether it's a blip or a sign of a new supply-side shock. Lucas explains how the Fed weighs anecdotal business surveys against hard data like core PCE, which ticked up to 130.3 in June. They also connect the dots to China's surprise factory contraction and what a divided Fed might do next. If you're trying to read the Fed's next move, this episode gives you a concrete lens: watch the manufacturing price index, not just CPI. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #ManufacturingInflation #ISM #MonetaryPolicy #InflationWatch #Economics #FOMC #SupplyChain #ChinaSlowdown #CorePCE #FedFundsRate #PricePressures #BusinessSurvey #CentralBank #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In Federal Reserve Podcast episode 147, Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is zeroing in on the real interest rate derived from ten-year breakevens. With the ten-year breakeven ticking up to 2.28 percent while core PCE climbs to 130.3, the hosts decode what this signal means for Warsh's Fed amid a divided committee and slowing GDP. They break down how the real rate influences borrowing, investment, and the neutral rate debate, and why a rising real rate could tighten financial conditions more than a quarter-point hike. Using the latest data and the Fed's own commentary, they explain the practical implications for investors and the economy—without jargon. If you've ever wondered how the Fed separates inflation from real growth, this episode gives you a clear lens. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RealRate #BreakevenInflation #10YearTreasury #CorePCE #NeutralRate #WarshFed #Inflation #BondMarket #EconomicGrowth #Investing #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #RateCut Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 146 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a shift in how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh is approaching inflation control: the renewed emphasis on the interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate as a precision tool. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and IORB at 3.65%, the hosts explain why the Fed prefers this fine-tuning mechanism over the broader fed funds target range. They explore the mechanics of how IORB influences bank behavior and market rates, and its role in a divided Fed navigating mixed signals. Tune in to understand a subtle but powerful lever in monetary policy. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #IORB #FedFundsRate #KevinWarsh #Economics #FOMC #Banking #Liquidity #StealthTightening #RateHikes #CentralBanking #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down the Fed's dilemma after Q2 GDP came in at just 1.5% while core PCE inflation remains at 3.3%. They discuss how the internal divide at the FOMC is shaping expectations for the next move, and what the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.26% tells us about market sentiment. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and the two-year yield falling below 3.7%, the hosts explore whether the economy is heading for stagflation or a soft landing, and why Singapore's surprise rate hike adds complexity to the global picture. #Fed #FederalReserve #GDP #Inflation #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #Stagflation #EconomicGrowth #DividedFed #CentralBanks #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #Podcast #July2026 #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Federal Reserve is publicly united but privately split. As of late July 2026, PCE inflation is creeping up while CPI eases — and Fed officials are drawing opposite conclusions. In this episode, we examine the two camps: the hawks who see sticky services and rising breakevens (now at 2.26 percent) and the doves who point to falling goods prices and a cooling economy. We discuss how this division is paralyzing forward guidance, what it means for the September FOMC meeting, and why the bond market is starting to price in the uncertainty. Featuring the latest on the yield curve and the Fed funds rate holding at 3.63 percent. No ads, just analysis. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #DividedFed #HawksAndDoves #Inflation #PCE #CPI #BreakevenRate #FedFundsRate #FOMC #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #MarketUncertainty #CentralBanking #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna revisit the two-year Treasury yield, which has reversed its recent uptrend and dropped roughly 10 basis points in a week to 3.69%. They explore why the bond market is now pricing in a Fed rate cut as soon as November, despite a slight uptick in core PCE inflation. The discussion contrasts the US market's easing bets with Singapore's surprising tightening move, and highlights what the interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65% tells us about the Fed's likely next move. Specific data points include the 2-year yield decline, the IORB rate, and the core PCE price index. A natural donation segment is seamlessly woven into the conversation. #FederalReserve #TwoYearYield #BondMarket #RateCutBets #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Inflation #CorePCE #IOER #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #CentralBank #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #July2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The two-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.76% even as the Fed funds rate sits flat at 3.63%. Lucas and Luna unpack what's behind the move: new tariff measures, a surprise jump in import prices from China, and the market's growing expectation that the Fed may need to tighten despite falling breakeven inflation. They discuss whether the Fed will acknowledge this signal at the upcoming FOMC meeting and what history says about the reliability of short-term rate moves. #FederalReserve #TwoYearYield #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #PCE #BreakevenInflation #Tariffs #ImportPrices #China #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketExpectations #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

CPI fell in June, but shelter costs remain stubbornly above 5 percent year-over-year. Lucas and Luna break down the lag between market rents and official inflation measures, what the Fed watches instead, and why the ten-year breakeven rate at 2.21 percent suggests investors expect the Fed to win — but not just yet. With global central banks tightening and tariffs resurfacing, the housing data may be the deciding factor for the September meeting. #ShelterInflation #FederalReserve #CPI #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #HousingMarket #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FOMC #InflationData #Economics #FedWatch #RentData #ZillowIndex #SingaporeTightening #Tariffs #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In Episode 140, Lucas and Luna decode three key phrases from Kevin Warsh's recent speech that hint at the Fed's thinking amid falling breakeven rates (2.21%) and rising core PCE (130.1). They explore how the Fed's communication strategy matters more than ever when data sends mixed signals, and what it means for the rate path ahead. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Inflation #BreakevenRate #CorePCE #InterestRates #FedCommunication #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #CentralBank #RatePath #Tariffs #Singapore Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox of falling market-implied inflation expectations — the 10-year breakeven rate dropped to 2.21 percent in late July 2026 — even as core PCE ticked up to its highest level in months. They explore why the Fed prioritizes the breakeven over backward-looking data, how the Singapore central bank's surprise tightening contrasts with the Fed's patient stance, and whether the bond market's vote of confidence could be wrong. Along the way, they discuss the impact of oil prices, tariffs, and the import price surge from China. Listeners get a clear, data-driven explanation of how the Fed reads conflicting signals to set policy. #FederalReserve #Inflation #BreakevenRate #PCE #TIPS #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #TenYearTreasury #SingaporeMonetaryPolicy #OilPrices #Tariffs #ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #Economics #CentralBank #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On July 24, 2026, President Trump announced a new global tariff, and import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, core CPI fell and the Fed's preferred PCE measure rose. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how the Federal Reserve is reconciling these contradictory signals: supply-side inflation pressures from tariffs and rising oil versus cooling domestic demand. With the fed funds rate flat at 3.63% and breakeven inflation edging down, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. We discuss the implications for the next FOMC meeting, the role of the PCE index, and what global tightening moves like Singapore's surprise rate hike mean for the U.S. outlook. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #Tariffs #OilPrices #ImportPrices #CPI #PCE #BreakevenInflation #FedFundsRate #FOMC #GlobalTrade #SingaporeMonetaryPolicy #SupplyShock #2026Economy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The neutral rate of interest, or r-star, is the Fed's invisible anchor for monetary policy. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the New York Fed's latest estimate of r-star is rising and how that could reshape the rate path mid-2026. They tie it to the ten-year yield's recent jump to 4.68 percent, the breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.26 percent, and the puzzling gap between falling CPI and rising PCE. If the neutral rate is higher, the current 3.63 percent fed funds rate may not be as restrictive as the market thinks. A sharp, numbers-driven look at the one number the Fed watches above all others. #FederalReserve #NeutralRate #RStar #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FOMC #Inflation #CorePCE #BreakevenRate #TenYearYield #FedFundsRate #Economics #CentralBanking #Holsinger2026 #PolicyPath #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE price index, is rising while CPI falls. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the structural differences between the two measures, why the Fed prioritizes PCE, and what the current divergence means for the rate path in July 2026. With core CPI at 336.1 (down) and core PCE at 130.1 (up), the signals are mixed. The hosts explain how the Fed reads these conflicting data points and how changes in consumer behavior, especially around housing and healthcare, drive the gap. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand the real inflation picture. #FederalReserve #PCE #CPI #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FedRatePath #CoreInflation #Housing #Healthcare #ConsumerSpending #InterestRates #FOMC #MacroEconomics #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, hosts Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling split in the latest inflation data: headline CPI fell for the third straight month, while core PCE edged up. They explore why the Fed's preferred measure, PCE, is bucking the trend, how the 10-year breakeven rate suggests expectations remain well-anchored, and what this means for the rate path as the committee enters the August lull. With Fed watchers parsing Kevin Warsh's recent comments and import prices from China at their highest since 2008, the hosts debate whether the central bank will hold steady or signal a cut. Specific data points include CPI at 332.6, core PCE at 130.1, and the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent. #FederalReserve #CPI #PCE #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #InterestRates #FOMC #KevinWarsh #BreakevenRate #ImportPrices #China #Economics #CentralBank #TighteningCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The ten-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.68 percent, its highest in months, while inflation expectations are actually falling. Lucas and Luna explain why this disconnect between nominal yields and breakeven rates is sending a warning signal to the Federal Reserve. They break down what rising real yields mean for monetary policy transmission, how Fed governor Kevin Warsh's recent three-phrase vocabulary hints at the central bank's concern, and whether the steepening curve could force the Fed to adjust its balance sheet runoff plans. With the federal funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and the interest on reserve balances at 3.65, the bond market is doing some of the Fed's tightening work for it—but that may not be enough to tame the inflation that still lingers in services. A sharp, accessible look at the mechanics of yield curve control in a post-pandemic era. #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy #KevinWarsh #Inflation #BreakevenRate #RealYields #BondMarket #FedFundsRate #InterestOnReserves #SteepeningCurve #FOMC #Economics #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo