How are the odds of an asteroid hitting Earth determined?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been identified as the most concerning near-Earth object currently being tracked. NASA initially estimated a 3.1% chance of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in December 2032, while the ESA put it at 2.8%, surpassing Apophis’ 2.7% risk in 2004. However, further observations have lowered NASA’s estimate to 1.5%, highlighting the refinement of risk assessments over time. But how are these risks assessed? Why do the odds keep fluctuating? Let’s find out! Guest: Richard Binzel - Professor of Planetary Sciences at MIT and Inventor of the Torino Scale Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices