Michael McFaul on China, Russia, and Democracy

Ambassador Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and Stanford professor joins Tudor and Daniel to discuss themes from his book “Autocrats vs. Democrats,” arguing that while today’s US–China rivalry shares some Cold War features—two great powers, ideological competition, and global scope—it differs crucially because of deep economic interdependence, a less existential ideological clash, and a more polarized, less internationally ambitious United States. He contrasts China’s generally more defensive export of its model to the developing world with Vladimir Putin’s aggressive promotion of illiberal populist nationalism within Western societies via media, NGOs, the church, election interference, and military force, emphasizing that Putin is a true ideologue whose choices often go beyond narrow national interest. Drawing on comparative cases from Eastern Europe, South Africa, and the Arab Spring, McFaul explains that successful democratic transitions often involve splits within authoritarian elites, something he currently does not see clearly in Russia or Iran. He also reflects on the personal risks of high-level diplomacy, recounting how Russian intelligence and media portrayed him as an architect of revolution and used conspicuous surveillance of him and his family in Moscow as psychological pressure, underscoring both the human costs and the complexity of modern great-power politics.