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Why This Rally May Be Too Early

EPISODE · Apr 22, 2026 · 32 MIN

Why This Rally May Be Too Early

from The DeFi Report · host Michael Nadeau

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. ----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne    ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion32:07 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Why This Rally May Be Too Early

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