Business And Economics (ANU Podcasts)

2012 has so far seen a buoyant share market, rising commodity prices, positive news on the US economy and a better than expected economic position in Europe.That mix of good cheer has begun to unwind the deep drop in confidence evident in recent months among Australia’s business community and the general public. Much of the recent optimism is thanks to the cheap money that Europe’s Central Bank has made available in the last two months. Whilst it hasn’t provided a lasting solution, it does at least mean the sticky-tape holding Europe together is now stronger.2012 may well turn out better than anticipated for Australia. But there is still a definite possibility that things could start to go in the other direction, with, among other things, the economic situation in Europe and in particular Greece, still very delicate.What lies ahead on the Australian and global horizon and what are the risks that might bring to an end Australia’s charmed run without a recession?

These are good times for Indonesia. Commodity prices are high, the economy is buoyant,  and the 2008-09 global financial crisis had little impact. The economic and democratic  reforms instituted in the wake of the Asian financial crisis have been bedded down  successfully. The country is increasingly important on the regional and global stage,  through ASEAN, the G20 and many other fora. Yet the skeptics in the country’s influential  political, business and NGO communities towards an open, liberal international economic  order are as vocal and vociferous as ever. This Lecture, by the country’s Minister of Trade  and one of its pre-eminent authorities on the subject, canvasses these and related issues.

Why do happy people make better investors and better entrepreneurs? Why do most investors achieve less than half the returns they should? Why are lottery winners no happier than the rest of us? What makes mature women better investors than young men? How do we develop emotional resilience and financial responsibility in our children? And how can we have more money and more happiness?We are what we think. But what causes us to think in the way that we do? And why does this lead us to make choices that do not make us either happy or wealthy?

Public services are facing an unprecedented combination of challenges and opportunities: demographic, technological, public expectations, fiscal constraint, local and global "wicked issues". The need for radical innovation - innovation that achieves significantly better outcomes for significantly lower costs - has perhaps never been greater.This lecture will draw on international research, experience and case studies to discuss the policy, system and organisational dynamics and relationships necessary to foster innovation and stimulate diffusion of ‘proven’ innovations.Among the questions to be explored will be: What are the required leadership characteristics? In what ways can funding regimes be developed to reward the adoption of innovation? How should users and the public be engaged in the processes of innovation? What regulatory frameworks hinder or enable innovation?

The US owes $14.4 trillion or $129,000 per taxpayer in debt, and every year into the future will add another $1.3 trillion in debt from budget deficits. The very viability of the nation is not only at risk, but other economies around the world are in jeopardy.In his only public speaking engagement in Canberra, Professor Steve Redburn, one of the leading experts in the US on the fiscal crisis, asks, What options can the US pursue to return itself to fiscal solvency? How much “pain” is expected versus the “gain” realized from various options? and, what are the politics of the current standoff in the US in Congress and Obama Administration in resolving the issues?

Professor Gregory will look back and analyse employment, skill imbalances, hours worked and welfare interactions in each of the economic booms and slumps over the last four decades and ask is Australia making progress in overcoming what appear to be entrenched structural problems in the labour market? He will also look forward to the next economic upswing and conjecture whether labour market outcomes will be very different from past experiences? He will comment on the changing labour market outcomes for men and women.

The lecture comprised a description and an analysis of (some aspects of) the current financial crisis.  The crisis is viewed as a "financial perfect storm" resulting from a combination of developments in global markets for goods and financial assets.  Special attention is devoted to the incentives created by developments in financial markets in the United States and the United Kingdom.   A comparison of the experiences of these two countries is used in assessing the relative importance of the various changes in incentives.  At some points, comparisons with what happened in other countries help in isolating the key changes. This lecture was presented by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis,  ANU College of Business and Economics, as part of the ANU Public Lecture Series 2009.

 This lecture examined the growing phenomenon of international skilled migration with particular attention to its impact on developing countries. A framework was developed for understanding the different measures of ‘brain drain' and how they are related to wage and income differences across countries around the world. Based on new data sources, differences in the prices of skill across countries were estimated and were used to explore how skill price differentials affect the magnitudes and skill-intensity of permanent migration to the United States and Australia and the magnitudes and direction of the flows of foreign students. Particular attention was also paid to the circular flow of migration and to understanding the role of higher education in fostering the outflow of international students and their return to their home countries.

Wage inequality has been increasing is most industrialised countries over the last two or three decades. There are, nonetheless, major differences across countries in terms of the timing and magnitude of the growth in inequality. A large number of explanations have been suggested for these observed changes, including technological progress and the computer revolution, labour market institutions and social norms, and changes in the relative supply of highly educated workers. The validity of these explanations will be assessed in light of the large differences in inequality growth across countries, and the stunning growth in the concentration of income at the top end of the distribution.

The presentation focuses on three key questions on climate change: what set of policies are desirable? What are the impacts of policy action, and is global action achievable? The first question requires the development of a robust national policy framework and to ensure a set of policies are in place that deliver abatement and adjustment at least cost to the economy. The second question requires an understanding of the causes, nature, and the scale of the economic impacts to achieve the transition to a low carbon future. The third and final question relates to the political economy of international action, and whether a robust and worthwhile agreement is achievable. The lecture  highlights the contribution of economics in providing a response to these important issues.

This forum is the last of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times.  The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope and ACT opposition Leader Zed Seselja debate the topic Leaders in the spotlight.

This forum is the second of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times.  The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher and Deputy Leader of the Opposition Brendan Smyth debate the topic Next in Line: The Office of the 21st Century.

This lecture starts by briefly defining the middle power and its role in the regional system. The security environment that the Korean peninsula is facing is later introduced including the North Korean nuclear weapons problem, the rise of China, and human security issues. Korea's foreign policy postures both at bilateral and multilateral levels is also provided. The lecture concludes with a brief introduction of Korea's alliance strategy, policy toward North Korea, policy toward neighbouring countries, and it's leadership role in the Asia-Pacific multilateralism.

This forum is the first of three public forums hosted by The Australian National University and The Canberra Times.  The three forums pit 2008 ACT Election candidates against each other in the first of its kind ACT Politicians debate. In this forum candidates Frank Pangallo and Richard J Mulcahy debate the topic New Parties, New Choices?

The second ANU Poll measures public opinion towards higher education. With the Australian Government's promise of an ‘Education Revolution' and the current review of higher education in full swing, what does the Australian public really think about our university system? How does the public perceive the availability of access to universities and the role of universities in preparing young Australians for the world of work? Is there public support for more Government funding for universities and how is their performance rated in comparison to other educational institutions?  Is a university education worth it in the eyes of Australians and how do Australian attitudes to higher education compare with other countries? ANU Vice-Chancellor Professor Ian Chubb AC addresses the key findings from the poll and identifies policy options that would enable effective Government responses to a number of public concerns.

This lecture was the Sixth Sir Roland Wilson Foundation Lecture. The lecture expands on the final chapter of Macfarlane's 2006 Boyer Lectures, which suggested that future economic shocks would be financial in origin. In particular it examines the implications of the current credit crisis for economic stability, for the financial security of the household sector and for retirement incomes policies.For more information on the Sir Roland Wilson Foundation go to: http://www.anu.edu.au/endowment/content/sir_roland_wilson_foundation/

ANU Trevor Swan Distinguished Lectures in Economics The lecture traces the outlines of economic thinking on climate change. Two competing paradigms are reviewed: (1) modelling of greenhouse gases mitigation as a dynamic optimal control problem and (2) the willingness to pay of the present generation to ensure future generations against the potential adverse impacts of climate change. The presentation examines the challenges of the economics of international co-operation, the choice of economic instruments for climate mitigation, uncertainty, climate adaptation, abrupt climate change, induced technological change, discounting, and equity considerations.

This lecture is the Annual Dr John Gee Memorial Lecture and was presented by the Lowy Institute for International Policy and The Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. Dr Kelly will address the Rudd Government's approach to regional security and middle power diplomacy. He will cover the role of the three pillars - the US alliance, membership of the United Nations, and comprehensive engagement with the countries of Asia and the Pacific - in shaping Australia's role in the region and the world. Dr Kelly will also outline Australia's approach to new and emerging regional security challenges from a Defence perspective, including the importance of relationships and alliances to regional stability in the 21st century.About Dr John GeeDr John Gee served with distinction as an Australian diplomat in a number of countries. His greatest contribution, however, was in the field of disarmament, where he had a particular interest in chemical weapons. After a period as a Commissioner on the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq following the first Gulf War, he became Deputy Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague, serving there until 2003. In recognition of his achievements, Dr Gee was made a member of the Order of Australia in January 2007. For more information on the Lowy Institute for International Policy go to: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/

One hundred years ago this year the Great White fleet sailed into Sydney harbor to a rapturous reception from Australian's hoping that America would protect us from the threats we feared from rising economic giants in Asia. In 1941 that hope come true. Today Australians still regards American primacy in Asia as the foundation of their security, and they have become perhaps Americas most consistent and supportive ally as a result. But our relationships with Asia has changed a lot since then, and the choices that Australians will face in the Asian Century may be more complex than those we make back in 1908, or in 1941. How do Australian see their relationship with the US today, and how might it evolve over the decades to come?    

Dr Hart will explore the main features of the Australian political system through comparison with the United States. He will compare and contrast the struggle of self-government in Australia and the US. He will look at how much Australian politics has been influenced by American was well as British forms of government, particularly focusing on the extent to which the Australian Prime Minister has become ‘presidentialised'. The presentation will also cover the essential differences between the Australian Parliament and the US congress, how Australian party politics is moving closer to the American model, and will also explain one of the unique features of our politics- compulsory voting. To conclude, Dr Hart will speculate about the future of Australian government particularly the prospect of an Australian Republic

Mr Gallagher and Professor Chapman set the scene on the Higher Education sector and how it operates in both Australia and the US, highlighting the different historical settings, funding arrangements, participation rates and the ANU and Yale current roles and structures. The Alumni cultural differences will become apparent as a result of this early scene-setting.  

This talk looks at discoveries made at the Yale Club of Pittsburgh of the best ways to engage alumni and to attract alumni of all ages and all backgrounds to become involved in the Yale Club and alumni activities. The speakers also discuss community service as a lifetime obligation and community service as a means of encouraging alumni activity and participation  

As a mechanism for controlling climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has not been a success. Over the decade from it’s signing in 1997 to the beginning of its first commitment period in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions in industrial countries subject to targets under the protocol did not fall as the protocol intended. Instead, emissions in many countries rose rapidly. Moreover, emissions have increased substantially in countries such as China, which were not bound by the protocol but which will eventually have to be part of any serious climate change regime. The world community is looking to move beyond Kyoto. This lecture draws on a new report prepared for a G8 background meeting in Tokyo that takes the lessons to be learned from Kyoto to design a post Kyoto framework that builds on Kyoto but which addresses the key elements needed to build a truly global regime. The current state of the global debate is very relevant as Australia considers a domestic climate policy. The lecture also outlines why a traditional cap and trade emission trading system as proposed by some is inadequate to deal with the uncertainty that underlies climate change and is not in Australia’s national interest.

In 1951, the year Sir Roland Wilson became Secretary to the Treasury, the terms of trade rose to their highest level on record. While the terms of trade fell back in the following year, they did not fully retrace their rise for a number of years. Around this time, Australia entered a long period of sustained economic growth, with the unemployment rate rarely rising above 3 per cent. Today the Australian economy is growing strongly, supported by the highest terms of trade since Sir Roland was Treasury Secretary, and the unemployment rate is at a level many thought could not be achieved unless accompanied by rampant growth in wages and prices. In the 2007 Sir Roland Wilson Foundation Lecture, Ken Henry compares the structure of the Australian economy in the 1950s and 1960s with that of today, and discusses the reasons for the changing focus of economic policy.

Preferential trading arrangements are becoming increasingly popular among the nations of the world. But are they a positive development? In the Fourth H W Arndt Memorial Lecture – presented by the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific and the ANU College of Business and Economics – Professor Jagdish Bhagwati argues that bilateral, sub-regional and regional free trade agreements, and the granting of one-way preferences to developing countries of choice, are creating a massive erosion of the non-discrimination that the architects of GATT endorsed as a central principle of the world-trading regime. Professor Bhagwati documents this erosion and addresses ways in which we must respond to it.

Sir Roland Wilson Lecture 2006 The Australian public servant Sir Roland Wilson had a long and illustrious career. He was also a proud and active Chairman of Qantas from 1966–1973, during a time of extreme turbulence for the company. In Sir Roland's address on the airline’s fiftieth anniversary, he declared that it was a near miracle that the company had lasted so long, and done so well. In this lecture, Qantas Chairman Margaret Jackson considers the modern challenges faced by Qantas and describes how the company is drawing on its tradition of being bold, brave and innovative to survive and succeed in the 21st century.

Chaired by Professor Robin Jeffrey, Convener of the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific Presented by the Australia South Asia Research Centre, Research School of Pacific & Asian Studies, ANU College of Asia & the Pacific. In this lecture, Suman K. Bery looked at the steps India needs to take before it can fulfill its potential and become one of the world's great economic powers. He focused on India’s management of its exchange rate and monetary policy, including the opening of its capital account and the management of its fiscal rate and reserves. Mr Bery argued that this is the right time for India to adopt convertibility of the rupee on the capital account and enhance economic growth prospects, because of its current large foreign exchange reserves. A paper by Lal, Bery & Pant, The Real Exchange Rate, Fiscal Deficits and Capital Flows, is available on request from [email protected]

The first lecture in the ANU-Toyota Public Lecture Series 2006 was presented by the ANU College of Business & Economics. In this lecture, influential Indian economist Professor B.B. Bhattacharya outlined the reasons for India’s success and considered the challenges ahead. He discussed how long-term prosperity in India will depend on increased growth in the agricultural sector, which employs the majority of workers, but has been lagging behind areas like information technology and telecommunications.