Middleweight Politics: Political Analysis for the Independent Voter

Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated establishment favorite Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination in New York's mayoral race, marking a clear victory for the party's progressive wing. The primary used ranked-choice voting, which encouraged coalition-building, drove record turnout, and notably reduced negative campaigning. But thanks to New York's fusion voting system, Cuomo has secured a spot on the general election ballot, giving him one more shot at defeat in what promises to be a far more chaotic, crowded, and contentious race. In this episode, Dan and Shawn break down the electoral reform car crash happening in real time, how these voting systems shaped campaign behavior, and what the race reveals about the Democratic Party's ongoing attempts to contain its ascendant left wing.  

Last week, Donald Trump found himself caught between the GOP's hawkish and isolationist wings as tensions flared in the Middle East, while also discovering that Republican voters in the Farm Belt weren't so keen on having their workforce deported. As Ted Cruz spars with Tucker Carlson and Stephen Miller wages war on red-state economies, has Trump's strategy of doubling down on provocative policies finally reached its breaking point? In this episode, Shawn and Dan break down the GOP's deepening internal rift, Trump's awkward turn as party peacemaker, and how a primary system that rewards partisan extremism has pulled members of the same party as far apart as it has from those across the aisle. Here are a few organizations you can check out if you'd like to get involved: Open Primaries: https://openprimaries.org/ Rank the Vote: https://rankthevote.us/ Fix Our House:  https://www.fixourhouse.org/  

Last week, Donald Trump deployed the National Guard and active-duty Marines to Los Angeles over the objections of state leaders, delivered a highly partisan speech to uniformed troops at Fort Bragg, and held a military parade in Washington, D.C. on his birthday. None of these actions are entirely without precedent, but taken together, they raise a pressing question: Can the U.S. military remain apolitical in an era of hyperpartisanship and hyperpolarization? Dan and Shawn dig into the historical context of domestic troop deployments, the shift to an all-volunteer force, and how political realignment may be reshaping the military's cultural identity and threatening America's tradition of an apolitical military.

In what could be the most predictable of outcomes, the partnership between two ultra-wealthy megalomaniacs with multiple baby mamas ended poorly, with Musk and Trump hurling insults at each other from the social media platforms they own. Welcome to 2025. In the back-and-forth, Musk put out a poll on X asking if it was time for a third major party, leading to suspicions he might try to bankroll a party to challenge the two-party duopoly. Could Musk succeed and, if so, what would success look like? While the public breakup of a president and his wealthiest backer is a first in American history, there are past examples that tell us how this might play out. Listen and find out what history tells us what the potential fallout might look like.

Last week, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville, who led a one-man blockade preventing military promotions under the Biden Administration, announced he would not be seeking reelection. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats launched a $20 million campaign to learn how to talk to men. Both are stupid in their own right and have their roots in the same stupid reason. Dan and Shawn break it down in this topical double-header.

On May 16, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, citing runaway deficit spending. One week later, Congress responded by passing a budget that will add nearly $4 trillion to the debt over the next decade. For decades, Congress has blown through every red light budget hawks have flashed over spending. Is this time different? In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss Trump's big, beautiful budget, how this parallels recent sovereign debt crises, the two times America "sort of" defaulted in the 1930s and 1970s, and whether a representative democracy can avoid the temptation of low taxes and high spending.  

At the time of this recording on Friday, May 16, Joe Biden's cancer prognosis handn't been revealed, yet stories had already emerged revealing just how far Biden's inner circle went to conceal his cognitive decline during the final years of his presidency. This raised the question: Are there any real safeguards for removing a president who's no longer fit to serve? In this episode, Dan and Shawn examine how the system let this happen, how similar failures have played out in American history, and what it says about a two-party structure that forces voters to choose between different flavors of dysfunction, rather than ensuring effective governance.  

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has announced he won't run for Senate in 2026 - a surprising move given his strong statewide appeal and proven ability to win over independents. Kemp, one of the few Republicans with crossover credibility, would have been the GOP's best shot at unseating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. But his history of defying Donald Trump and refusing to indulge election denialism would have guaranteed a bruising primary against the party's MAGA wing. In this episode, we unpack how Kemp's decision reflects a deeper problem: the GOP's biggest opponent in 2026 might not be the Democrats, but a primary system that seems to favor an increasingly weirder breed of Republican. NOTE: After the time of recording this episode, Marjorie Taylor Greene announced she would not be entering the race, either. While this changes the immediate primary landscape, the broader questions we raise about candidate quality, primary dynamics, and the GOP's structural challenges in 2026 remain just as relevant.

Austen Campbell was the Deputy Finance Director for independent Senate candidate Dan Osborne, whose grassroots campaign in Nebraska turned a presumed Republican stronghold into a competitive race - scaring the GOP establishment in the process. As Osborne climbed in the polls, Campbell saw firsthand how the right independent candidate could channel growing frustration with the two-party system and address important issues Washington has ignored for years. Now, Campbell has launched the Independent National Coalition, a new organization aiming to support independent House candidates, with the goal of denying both parties a majority and shifting power back to the voters. In this episode, we explore what he learned from the Osborne campaign, how the Independent National Coalition plans to strategically challenge entrenched incumbents, and what it would mean to bring a true balance of power to Congress. You can learn more and pledge your support at: https://www.independentnationalcoalition.com

With the progressive wing of the Democratic Party moving to assert itself in the 2026 midterms, many on the left worry these new candidates will scare away moderate voters. Yet Donald Trump's victories in 2016 and 2024 show moderates don't appear to spook easily. In this episode, Dan and Shawn break down how the term "moderate" can be misleading and how the two-party system, party primaries, and the ability to micro-target audiences have marginalized moderate voters.

With only 562 days until the 2026 midterm elections, pundits have begun making predictions, and the Democrats' progressive wing has been very publicly asserting itself. In recent weeks, AOC and Bernie Sanders have held a series of high-profile rallies across the country, and activists have threatened primary challenges against centrist incumbents. Some see this as the bold shift the party needs to reconnect with young and working-class voters. Others worry it could push moderates away at a critical moment. In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss how a progressive shift could help Democrats reclaim working-class voters lost to Trump, but also widen the ideological gulf between the two parties, fueling even greater polarization. (Photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Last week, Americans witnessed President Trump's "art of the deal" in action as his administration imposed sweeping tariffs on global trading partners, only to roll them back after markets cratered and bond yields spiked. Economists largely agree the Trump administration's tariff policy will be bad for the economy, with many fearing it will push us into recession. But are the politics behind it just as bad, or do they work to Trump's advantage? In this episode, Dan and Shawn explore how the most important counties in the past three election cycles have been the ones most affected by trade with China, how the GOP may be taking more reliable Republican strongholds for granted, and how the fallout may result in Congress placing limits on presidential power.

Trump's takeover of the GOP turned a buttoned-up party focused on small government and a cautious approach to change to a raucous, populist group made for the social media age. Some welcomed the shift. Others—like this week's guest—have been trying to pull the party back to its conservative roots ever since. Josh Lewis, founder of Saving Elephants, joined me to talk about where the GOP stands in 2025, what real conservatism actually looks like, and whether there's still a political home for it in a party that's more reality show than institution. We talk about his break from the party in 2016, third-party experiments, ranked-choice voting, and how to reform a system that rewards spectacle over substance.  

Most of us know what it feels like to send an embarrassing text to the wrong person, but only a select few know what it feels like when that embarrassing text includes details of an impending military operation and that wrong person is a journalist. While the Trump Administration attempts to handle the fallout from this latest mishap, a bigger question looms: Has today's partisan era made it impossible for America to learn and adapt from its mistakes. In this episode, we dive into the history of America's biggest foreign policy and military debacles, how prior incidents were used to strengthen the country's defense, and why it's becoming more difficult to do so now.

Last week, a new front opened up in the Democrats' war against themselves when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer backed a Republican-led budget deal to avoid a government shutdown, prompting outrage from House Democrats, threats of a primary challenge from AOC, and renewed questions about who actually leads the Democratic Party. While Schumer's stated intention was to prevent the Trump administration from cutting the federal workforce and government programs even further, is there evidence that voters even care—or trust government enough to want it preserved? In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss how the status quo wing of the Democratic Party is at odds with voters' growing belief that the federal government is inefficient and wasteful, and how co-opting the GOP's "efficiency" narrative might be the key to rebuilding after their losses in 2024.

Former Kansas House Speaker, Republican Don Hineman, voiced his support for fusion voting as a way for moderate Republicans to push back against the party's rightward shift. Banned in the early 1900s, supporters say fusion voting gives minor parties more influence and puts power back in voters' hands. But would it actually reduce division—or just benefit a certain faction of the GOP? Dan and Shawn break down how fusion voting works, why it was banned, and whether it's the key to fixing elections—or just another half-measure in a broken system. Would fusion voting help fix our elections or just keep power within the parties? Let us know in the comments!

Donald Trump's address to Congress last week is the latest in a string of highly partisan moves designed to please his base and needle his opponents. While his divisive approach seems unusual by modern standards, have we been here before? In this episode, Dan and Shawn plumb the depths of American history and find a president not all that dissimilar from our 45th/47th, discuss whether Trump is leading a lasting transformation of the GOP, or one that will fade like past populist movements, and what Democrats (and disaffected Republicans) can learn from history to mount an effective resistance.

Since their losses in November, Democrats have begun to reassess their approach, with some members openly questioning if their party has lost touch with voters. At the same time, Republicans have spent their first month in power indiscriminately firing government employees and canceling food aid to starving nations while seemingly forgetting the economic issues voters put them in there to address. In this episode, Dan and Shawn look at recent polling and explore whether one party is guilty of being out of touch with the majority of Americans or whether either party is speaking to the majority at all?

Over the past two weeks, JD Vance blamed European Allies for stifling free speech in their countries, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth blamed them for not spending enough on defense, and President Trump blamed Ukraine for starting Russia's invasion of their country. In response, European governments appear to be preparing for a future without America's support. Many have attributed this to Trump, whose brash style and isolationist tendencies are a mismatch with the traditional postwar order. But is this a Trump issue, or something deeper? In this episode, Dan and Shawn explore how the growing political divide in America over the last 30 years has made America a less reliable partner on the international stage, its implications for the country, and how we can fix it. For bonus content, check out: YouTube (updated almost daily!): https://www.youtube.com/@MiddleweightPolitics TikTok (same stuff you'll see on YouTube, only you get to give your data to China!): https://www.tiktok.com/@middleweightpolitics Substack (We'll get around to updating that soon): https://middleweightpolitics.substack.com/  

A poll conducted by FairVote in December found that 47% of respondents felt they chose between the lesser of two evils in at least one election last year. What does that say about the state of our democracy? And more importantly, what can be done about it? This week, Dan speaks with Will Mantell, Director of Communications at FairVote, to discuss the poll, what it could mean for voter turnout in the long run, and how America's cities are leading the charge to offer choices their voters can actually feel good about. Looking to get involved? Learn more at FairVoteAction.org Also - don't forget to submit your choice for "Where's Shawn?" here: https://app.rankedvote.co/rv/vgyqfpdznth4jl36ga/vote  

In his first three weeks back in office, Trump has already floated taking control of Gaza, authorized Elon Musk to overhaul the Treasury with college interns, and signed more executive orders than most presidents do in a year. While critics argue he's trampling constitutional limits on presidential power, is Trump really breaking new ground - or just building on a century of executive overreach? In this episode, Dan and Shawn trace how presidents have steadily expanded their authority through executive actions - from Jefferson's unauthorized Louisiana Purchase to FDR's sweeping New Deal programs to the post-9/11 expansion of war powers. They explore how gridlock in Congress has transformed executive orders from administrative tools into the primary means of governing and what this means for a system of checks and balances designed to prevent exactly this kind of concentrated power. Key topics: The evolution of executive power from Washington to Biden How Congressional gridlock enables presidential overreach Why partisan primaries weaken legislative oversight Electoral reforms that could restore constitutional balance As Trump openly tests the boundaries of presidential authority and Congress seems powerless to stop him, the bigger question emerges: Have we returned to the same crisis that led the Founders to create the presidency in the first place - when a weak Congress creates demand for a strong executive? And if so, what can be done to restore the balance of power?

Last week, the Trump Administration sparked confusion across government agencies with a memo freezing federal funding. The confusion deepened when they rescinded the memo 45 hours later. The memo was part of a longer campaign by the GOP to reduce federal spending, which has carried the moniker of being the party of fiscal discipline. But is this reputation earned? In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss the history of federal spending and the national debt, how it's ballooned under both parties, and how the way out may not be spending less, but spending more on the right things.

Trump kicked off his second term touting a mandate from the 49.8% of voters who backed him, using it to rename mountains, declare the U.S. a country with only two genders, and attempt to overturn a constitutional amendment via executive order. But is this really what his supporters voted for? In this episode, Dan and Shawn analyze polling data to uncover why people voted for Trump, revealing surprising overlaps between the policies Trump's base supports and those favored by non-Trump voters alike. You can find Middleweight Politics on TikTok, YouTube, and other channels here: https://linktr.ee/middleweightpolitics Middleweight Politics supports the following organizations in their efforts to put power back in the hands of voters and give them more and better choices on the ballot: Rank the Vote - www.rankthevote.us - An organization fostering state-level movements to promote ranked-choice voting to give voters more meaningful choices and improve election outcomes. FairVote - www.fairvote.com - Advocates for electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting and proportional representation to create a more representative democracy. Fix Our House - www.fixourhouse.org - Focused on implementing proportional representation in the U.S. to ensure every vote counts and diverse perspectives are represented in Congress.

At the time of this recording, a controversial law imposing heavy fines on companies providing access to TikTok was set to take effect, effectively banning the app for US users. In this episode, Dan and Shawn dive into the politics behind the TikTok ban, exploring whether it's truly about national security or a form of protectionism benefiting Big Tech. They unpack why Congress ignored popular calls for meaningful data privacy regulation and discuss a new social media platform that could challenge the status quo.  

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, left-wing populism surged with movements like Occupy Wall Street and figures such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Yet, while the MAGA wing fuels right-wing populism's dominance in the GOP, the populist left has seemingly lost its momentum. Why? In this episode, Dan speaks with Jack Eckblad, Milwaukee County Commissioner and progressive organizer, to unpack the Democrats' struggles to connect with voters in key states like Wisconsin. They explore how the party's nomination process—not its grassroots energy—has held back the populist left and how this impacted the 2024 election.

Elon Musk's weird journey into politics went global last month when he endorsed Germany's far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), in an op-ed for Welt am Sonntag. His controversial move sparked backlash from Germany's center-right leader and led to the resignation of the paper's editor. While Musk's influence in U.S. politics has cemented his role as a major power broker in Washington, can he wield the same impact in Germany? In this episode, Dan and Shawn break down Musk's impact on American politics, the rise of AfD and its parallels to the Tea Party and MAGA movements, and how Germany's proportional representation system prevents the outsized influence of big money, and what lessons the U.S. can learn from Germany's approach to elections.  

As we recorded this episode, the GOP seemed poised to shut down the government just days before officially taking control, thanks to internal party defections that derailed a critical funding bill. Meanwhile, across the aisle, Nancy Pelosi's active opposition to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's bid to become the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee exposed similar fractures within the Democratic Caucus. In this episode, Shawn and Dan dive into the fragmentation within both parties, Elon Musk's entrance as a Republican power broker, and a recent poll showing a surprisingly high level of support for Donald Trump among people who voted for Jill Stein.

After the bruising losses of November, Democrats have begun aiming their pointy fingers at each other. But the real question isn't whether the party is too progressive or not progressive enough—it's whether the so-called "Big Tent" can truly hold everyone. In this episode, Dan and Shawn unpack the growing fault lines within the Democratic Party, from Nancy Pelosi's behind-the-scenes moves to block AOC to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's success with blue-collar voters in a Trump district. What do these tensions reveal about America's two-party system—and can reforms like ranked-choice voting be the key to fixing it or are they just another band-aid?  

After leading the city's turnaround, Detroit's Democratic Mayor Mike Duggan has opted to launch a bid for governor as an independent rather than enter into a primary race with his fellow Democrats. This is part of a larger trend in America where centrist politicians capable of building coalitions across the aisle often find their biggest opponents are members of their own party. In this episode, Dan and Shawn explore how America's electoral system has hollowed out the political middle, and how Ireland's recent election shows different rules can help the center hold in the face of rising left and right-wing populism.  

Democratic policies such as raising the minimum wage and expanding access to health care poll highly among voters, yet the party supporting none of these positions just won the White House and both chambers of Congress. Using data from Echelon Insights, Dan and Shawn explore how declining trust in government leads working class voters to choose cultural alignment over economic interests, why Democrats keep losing voters they take for granted, and what electoral reforms could help bridge the divide between policy preferences and voting patterns.

It's well known America's two major parties don't like each other. In the wake of the most recent election, it's becoming clear they don't like each other much either. In this episode, Shawn and Dan discuss how recent internal feuds in both the Democratic and Republican parties reveal a potential splintering of the two-party system, how some political insiders are calling for a third political option, and a small group of legislators proposing a reform that could make that happen. For a full write up and additional content, check out https://middleweightpolitics.substack.com/  

In his first term, Trump was accused of listening to Fox News more than his advisors. This time around, he appears ready to avoid that criticism by appointing a Fox News panel to his cabinet. In this episode, we explore how Trump's picks - from Elon Musk to RFK Jr. - reflect a political system where Twitter followers matter more than expertise, how California Republican David Valadao keeps winning in a Democratic +10 district without becoming "Fox News famous," and what his success tells us about fixing our social media-obsessed politics.

After months of pollsters telling us the election was close, 50.4% of Americans decided giving a second term to a 78-year-old former president was the best way to bring about much-needed change. In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss how "double haters" ultimately tipped the election in favor of Trump, how Democrats boosted MAGA candidates in the primaries only to lose to them, and why every ballot initiative that could have given voters more than two choices on the ballot failed spectacularly. They also talk about Long John Silver's and Little Caesar's. It'll make sense when you listen.

Much can be said about the 2024 presidential election cycle. Most universal is the sentiment we should never do this again. In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss how two of the oldest, most unpopular candidates rewrote their parties' primary rules to make it on the ballot, how this has led to an election where over half of Americans plan on voting against a candidate, rather than for one, and how we can make sure 2028 isn't a repeat of 2024.

Negative voting - where voters cast ballots in opposition of a candidate rather than for one - has almost doubled in the last 20 years. In this episode, Shawn and Dan discuss the economic drivers behind it, how a non-responsive government fuels voter cynicism, and ways we can fix it.

In this episode, Shawn and Dan discuss former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke's puzzling endorsement of Jill Stein, Democrat Mike Bennett's slightly more puzzling opposition to election reform in his state, and how the media's obsession with polling has them spending more time discussing who's going to win the presidency than what the candidates would do in office.

While Election Day is still three weeks away, a combination of safe congressional seats and closed partisan primaries has already determined the result of 87% of House Elections. In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss a recent report by Unite America showing how 7% of all voters have determined the overwhelming majority of House elections, the effects this has on polarization in Congress, and reforms on the ballot in several states that could fix this. Unite America's full report can be found here: https://www.uniteamerica.org/primary-problem

In a plan worthy of a man with a worm in his brain, RFK Jr. has withdrawn his name from swing states and officially ended his campaign, yet keeps fighting to remain on the ballot in safe states to offer voters an option outside the two-party system. In this episode, Shawn and Dan discuss polling from earlier this year that showed Kennedy with a surprisingly high level of support in traditionally red and blue states, what this says about voter dissatisfaction with the two-party system, and reforms on the ballot that could give these voters a voice in future elections.

In a forum in Minneapolis last week, Liz Cheney indicated a new party may need to be formed to represent conservatives dissatisfied with Trump and the direction of the GOP. In this episode, Dan and Shawn explore the historical parallels with Cheney's proposed party and other insurgent third-party bids, and how recent elections in Nebraska and Alaska show that voters might not necessarily want a new party, but a party that produces better candidates.