Nascent 🪺 Podcast

This is a follow-up episode in response to a listener question regarding Episode 022. The listener asked: Isn't searching for People in Pain just marketing? No. Marketing deploys the knowledge a business already has. Searching for People in Pain is the project of figuring out whether it's even worth it to try to get that knowledge in the first place.This episode unpacks the most-abused word in startups ("customers") and contrasts how marketing works in an established, conventional business with customers versus an attempt at marketing for a customer-breakthrough tech startup with no customers. In brief, marketers run a knowledge-flywheel powered by existing customers' data. By contrast, startups with no customers are a data disaster.In this episode:(00:00) A data disaster (02:49) The most important and misunderstood word in entrepreneurship: "customer"(03:53) Recap of Ep 022 — the People-to-Prospect Funnel (05:09) In conventional businesses founders can LEARN about existing problems and solutions (06:56) Customer-breakthrough startups require founders to CREATE knowledge about problems and solutions(07:28) Audience question in detail(08:26) Effective marketing requires knowledge of messaging + economics(10:27) The invisible chain of events behind marketing(12:56) The cold-start problem that blocks tech startups Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascentLet's connect:Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.comMiro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentideaSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSYApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdeaReach Mike at [email protected] and sources:Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain"The Lean Startup" by Eric Ries https://theleanstartup.com/John Wanamaker quote on advertising https://www.azquotes.com/author/15273-John_WanamakerTypical advertising conversion rates and costs:- https://www.ruleranalytics.com/blog/insight/conversion-rate-by-industry/- https://firstpagesage.com/reports/digital-marketing-conversion-rate/- https://totalproductmarketing.com/marketing-insights/conversion-rate-display-ads-all-industries/- https://www.cometly.com/post/typical-conversion-rate-guideNascent frameworks referenced:People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain, but they're invisible.People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — A 5-layer funnel showing the path of any person to becoming a customer.

Reid Hoffman was WRONG when he said "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff and assembling a plane on the way down -- your willingness to jump is your most valuable asset as an entrepreneur." "Willingness to jump" is not even his most valuable asset! His most valuable asset is his ability to know whether a startup idea has a chance of success. Only then is willingness to jump valuable, not disastrous. This episode introduces the Chain of Success: a framework to prioritize our work when seeking an early signal about whether a startup idea is worth pursuing.In this episode:(00:00) Don't build a plane while flying — Reid Hoffman's quote(03:08) Founders focus on winners (1% exits are $10M+)(04:42) Distribution of startup outcomes (hat tip 🎩 Jared Heyman, Rebel Fund)(09:46) 1 year wasted on a $0 exit = unacceptable(10:40) Nascent's 10x improvement goal(11:43) The Chain of Success framework (13:21) Two strategic points: fragility and signal(14:38) Only prioritize the riskiest link: paying customers (17:27) Chain of Success applied to doctors (gunshot vs paper cut)(22:24) Chain of Success applied to airplanes (wings vs seatbelts) (24:04) Go record one conversation(25:00) Mailbag: feedback from Michael Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascentLet's connect:Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.comMiro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentideaSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSYApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdeaReach Mike at [email protected] and sources:Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startupsNascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrongNascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-painNascent Ep023: No, don't mimic successful founders. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/023-no-dont-mimic-successful-foundersReid Hoffman quote — "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff" https://x.com/reidhoffman/status/1481071139221049345Jared Heyman references: https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-the-power-law-of-y-combinator-startups-19cfb39863d6 and https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-yc-startup-exits-2025-update-c6017e8e526eCB Insights — Top reasons startups fail https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/startup-failure-reasons-top/Tom Eisenmann, Why Startups Fail https://www.amazon.com/Why-Startups-Fail-Roadmap-Entrepreneurial/dp/0593137027Nascent frameworks referenced:Chain of Success™ — A visualization tool showing the components (customers, product, etc.) a business needs to succeed. If any link breaks then the Chain breaks and the business fails. The Chain of Success reveals 3 strategic takeaways: Fragility, Signal and Focus. ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews.People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

The biggest challenge in entrepreneurship is that founders of startups with no customers need a way to know if they're about to "make something people want". In this episode, Mike details three experiences that enable him to solve this challenge: (1) measurement systems -- Mike worked for years quantifying consumer products, (2) crossing boundaries -- Mike uses concepts outside conventional entrepreneurship to create Nascent's quantification frameworks and (3) table stakes -- Mike has decades of experience with startups and teaching.In this episode:(00:00) "Make something people want" is like saying airplanes just need to "get in the air"(01:10) For the rest of us, instinct is not enough (01:39) What Nascent is and why Mike created it(02:21) Welcome to the Nascent podcast(02:55) Nascent lets startups with no customers Estimate Revenue Next Year(03:34) Three reasons Mike is the right person to build Nascent(05:23) Twenty years in startups; ten in Silicon Valley(05:54) Create, collaborate, communicate — Mike's three working modes(07:21) Mike's superpower: explaining things (08:11) From engineer to regulator — measuring messy, unstructured products(10:51) From "Your idea sucks." to "Why does my idea suck?!" (13:23) Discovery interviews need an analysis framework (14:29) The danger of "you'll know a good startup idea when you see it"(16:22) Crossing boundaries — the beach, languages(17:26) From perceiving invisible electrons to invisible People in Pain(19:41) The Alexa employee anecdote — circuitous career paths and unexpected payoffs(21:12) CTA: send this episode to a founder who needs it(22:04) Mailbag: Claudia's outreach(22:33) Outro Links and sources:- Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups remains unsolved. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startups - Nascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrong - Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain- Y Combinator — the "make something people want" motto https://www.ycombinator.com/- Paul Graham's "internal compass" quote https://paulgraham.com/before.html - Steve Blank https://steveblank.com/ - Jerry Engel https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/engel-jerome/ - Innovation Corps (I-Corps) at the National Science Foundation (NSF) https://www.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/i-corps- The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick https://www.momtestbook.com/ - Helen Rennie — cooking instructor https://www.youtube.com/user/helenrennie - Richard Feynman — "you are the easiest person to fool" https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm Nascent frameworks referenced:- ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews.- People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain. Let's connect:- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com- Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830- Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea- Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/- Reach Mike at [email protected]

Episode 022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But, they're invisible.In this episode, Mike introduces the distinction between conventional businesses (where knowledge exists) and breakthrough startups (where founders must create new knowledge). He details the challenge for founders of customer-breakthrough startups: to create knowledge, they must identify People in Pain who are invisible. To distinguish invisible People in Pain from visible customers, Mike presents the People-to-Prospect Funnel, a 5-layer framework for understanding what it takes for a startup to get a customer.In this episode:(00:00) Let's go get customers, right? Wrong!(00:53) Intro: trying to get customers is too tedious (02:02) Recap: why searching for People in Pain is easier than chasing customers(04:43) All businesses use knowledge to provide pain relief to People in Pain(05:17) Conventional businesses vs. breakthrough startups(05:57) Example of a conventional business: the pizza shop(08:33) Examples of technology-breakthrough: Ozempic, teleportation(10:17) Examples of customer-breakthrough startups: Airbnb, Uber(11:05) How a founder, Paul, used Nascent to decide in days (11:35) Founders make two investments in knowledge creation (12:53) Why People in Pain are invisible(14:11) Antennas on your head -- developing a new sense of Pain(15:21) The People-to-Prospect Funnel: 5 layers from blockers to customers(17:56) Example of the People-to-Prospect Funnel: a food cart pod (22:26) CTA: who are the People in Pain you're searching for?Nascent frameworks referenced:- People in Pain™ -- the first signal a startup might have a customer; every customer starts as a Person in Pain- People-to-Prospect Funnel™ -- 5-layer funnel: blockers, insidious distractions, People in Pain, prospects, customers- Knowledge-creation project -- The Nascent definition of a startup where founders must create new knowledge- Categorizing businesses by knowledge -- new solution to an obvious problem vs. new solution to a hidden problem- Doubtful vs. possible -- the binary assessment of whether success for a startup idea is doubtful or possible.Let's connect:- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com- Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/- Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830- Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea- Email: [email protected] and sources:- 021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7caiudvijZhCrKDjlHKzsw?si=D80_hfneTSONn8cndHAV0w- Yums of PDX https://www.yumsofpdx.com/Your startup is a knowledge creation project. The knowledge you need doesn't exist yet -- you have to create it. And the most important piece of that knowledge comes from identifying invisible People in Pain who might someday become your customers.

Asking how to get customers for a startup is asking the wrong question. In this episode, Mike explains why pursuing paying customers is the wrong first step, introduces the concept of People in Pain™ as the first signal that your startup might ever get a customer and sets a ridiculously low bar for evaluating your startup idea.In this episode:(00:00) Hook: "Can I show you how to get customers? No. Because nobody can."(00:51) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast(01:28) This is episode 21 -- customers are the wrong goal(01:41) Why "focus on the customer" doesn't apply to startups with no customers(02:36) Embrace having no customers -- you have no commitments(04:00) Trying to get customers is often a huge waste of time(04:19) Metaphor 1: Can your airplane generate lift?(05:50) Metaphor 2: Can you get a bat to hit a ball?(08:02) Every customer starts as a Person in Pain(08:31) Search for People in Pain and quantify their Pain in dollars(09:24) People in Pain are invisible(10:32) CTA: who are the People in Pain you're searching for?(10:56) Payoff: reject the wrong question, embrace the right oneNascent frameworks referenced:- People in Pain™ -- the first signal a startup might have a customer; every customer starts as a Person in Pain- Doubtful vs. possible -- the binary assessment: is success for this startup idea doubtful or possible?- Knowledge-creation project -- what a startup actually is; the knowledge does not yet exist and must be created by the founderLet's connect: - Newsletter: nascentstartups.com- Work with Mike: nascentidea.com- LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer- YouTube: youtube.com/@Nascentidea- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830 - Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea - Contact: [email protected] chasing customers. Start searching for People in Pain. If you can find people with expensive Pain, there's a possibility your startup could succeed. If you can't, the chances are doubtful -- and another project would be a better use of your time.

Startups with customers face different challenges than startups with no customers. But conventional startup strategies don't make this distinction — there's no Playbook A for startups with customers and Playbook B for startups with no customers. In this episode, Mike makes the case that founders of startups with no customers are underserved, explains why even the most accomplished entrepreneurs can't solve this problem, and introduces Nascent methodology as the dedicated playbook for founders who need to quickly evaluate their startup ideas in days.In this episode:(00:00) Hook: there's no dedicated playbook for startups with no customers(01:36) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast(02:04) The gap in conventional startup strategy(03:08) Founders are special creative people with unlimited ideas but limited time(03:52) The ERNY value™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year(04:18) Nascent's two audiences: Birdie (repeat founder) and Phoenix (pivoting founder)(06:24) First-time founders: "This will work!" vs "Will this work?!" (07:36) "I can explain it to you, but I can't experience it for you"(08:28) Why haven't startup experts solved this problem?(09:36) Native speakers vs. foreign-language speakers(11:12) Paul Graham's "internal compass" (12:04) Kim, the native speaker of startups(12:48) Detailed measurements in Nascent methodology (13:28) CTA: Was previous advice detailed or just touch-and-feel?Links and sources:- Eric Ries, The Lean Startup (quotes from pages 4 and 47) — https://theleanstartup.com- Steve Blank, "Build it and they will come is not a strategy. It's a prayer." — https://steveblank.com/- Paul Graham, "Before the Startup" lecture at Stanford — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii1jcLg-eIQ - Helen Rennie, "How to Make Egg Pasta" on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_fu5RaXMVk&t=40s Nascent frameworks referenced:- ERNY value™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews- Doubtful vs. possible — the binary assessment Nascent delivers against the question, "Is success for this startup idea doubtful (stop) or possible (keep going)?"Subscribe and follow:- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.comConventional startup strategies are for startups with customers. Founders of startups with NO CUSTOMERS need a dedicated playbook. Nascent is the playbook for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing.

Most startups fail because they can't get customers — and founders often waste years before realizing their idea is a dead end. In this relaunch episode, Mike re-introduces Nascent methodology and a new metric called the ERNY value (Estimated Revenue Next Year, in dollars) that helps founders decide in days, not years, whether their idea is worth pursuing.In this episode:(00:00) Hook: founders waste years on dead-end ideas(00:54) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast(01:24) Steve Blank and Eric Ries — meaningful progress, but still more to do(02:04) The relaunch — 100 episodes in 50 weeks(02:27) 12 years of Nascent: from mentoring to workshops to a business(04:50) Is anyone else working on this challenge?(06:05) Paul Graham's internal compass — "I don't know!"(07:59) ERNY value: doubtful vs. possible(08:37) ERNY is not TAM/SAM/SOM(10:12) What's ahead on this podcast(12:17) CTA: subscribe, share, email [email protected] and sources:- Paul Graham: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii1jcLg-eIQ - Steve Blank: https://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steve-Blank/dp/0989200507 - Eric Ries: https://theleanstartup.com - Rob Fitzpatrick: https://www.momtestbook.com/ - Alberto Savoia: https://www.pretotyping.orgNascent frameworks referenced:- ERNY value — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews- Doubtful vs. possible — the binary assessment Nascent delivers against the question, "Is success for this startup idea doubtful (stop) or possible (keep going)?"Subscribe and follow:- Website: https://nascentidea.com- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830Conventional startup strategies are for startups with customers. Nascent is for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing.

More workshops here: https://lu.ma/nascent This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

Startups WITH customers face wildly different problems from startups WITHOUT CUSTOMERS. However, most startup strategies don't address this distinction -- and those strategies are for startups with customers. If you're a founder of a startup with few or no customers, here's why conventional startup strategies (e.g., product market fit, minimum viable product, business model canvas, etc.) are a distraction right now.Shout out to Paul Orlando at USC for all the support 🙌 https://www.marshall.usc.edu/personnel/paul-orlando This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

I attended SubSummit in June 2024 in Dallas, Texas to record an episode of the Nascent Startups podcast. Amazingly, Robbie Kellman Baxter filled in at the last moment when my originally scheduled interviewee was unexpectedly absent. Thanks so much and kudos to Robbie for sharing her insights on no notice! Links we referenced in the show:* https://robbiekellmanbaxter.com/* https://www.linkedin.com/in/robbiekellmanbaxter/ * https://subsummit.com/ * https://www.strava.com/* https://review.firstround.com/how-superhuman-built-an-engine-to-find-product-market-fit/* https://pmfsurvey.com/ * https://boldcommerce.com/* https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauren-pienta-15a8298/* https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulcchambers/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

Shout out to Pilot44 and Jon Corshen This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

In the summer of 2019, Adara Blake (https://www.adaranicole.com/) founded a startup, Believe in Breast Milk. Adara is a speech therapist and lactation consultant who wanted to solve the problem that 60% of mothers do not breastfeed for as long as they intend to. Typically, Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation (TENS) is used for pain relief in muscles; Adara’s innovation was to use TENS to stimulate breast tissue and drive milk production. Adara’s vision was to create an internet-of-things (IoT) TENS device so that Believe in Breast Milk could track user data and yield better results, similar to how Omada Health uses an IoT scale to track weight data. There was initial data showing this could work! Adara’s friend Susie used Adara’s TENS technique to increase milk production 5x in just a few days : In this podcast, Adara walks us through her journey:* Feeling inspired by other “delusional” founders in Silicon Valley / San Francisco Bay Area * Deciding to create Believe in Breast Milk in summer 2019* Struggling to determine her first steps* Incorporating the startup into a business* Taking out a personal loan of $5,000 to pay engineers to create a CAD drawing of a prototype of the smart TENS unit * Avoiding paying another $5,000 to build the prototype. * Adara used the Nascent Startups methodology to focus on “creating initial value”. Instead of the expensive and tedious IoT TENS, Adara quickly and cheaply created similar value for her first users by paying less than $100 for a conventional TENS and using a free Google Form. * Recruiting 6 people to use the TENS and measure milk production* Shutting down the startup informally when it “fizzled out” in summer 2020 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

When you have an idea for a tech startup, your first step is to deeply understand the people you want help in an Exploration exercise. Shout out to Lex Fridman and Jeff Bezos: https://lexfridman.com/jeff-bezos This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

A founder's journey: Carley had an idea for "BundleShop" but wasn't sure whether it was an opportunity worth pursuing so she used the Nascent Startups methodology to decide quickly and cheaply. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This podcast includes references to slides which you can see at https://www.nascentstartups.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

One insights, two questions, and a three-part answer for founders with nascent-stage startups This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com

Sections: Why did my startup idea suck?; Definition of a Nascent Startup; Two question frame Nascent Startups; It all boils down to a joke; Nascent Startups don't need funding; Three answers; About us; Next steps. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nascentstartups.com