The Risk Takers Podcast

Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show.Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threats to your bankroll looming around every corner and being defensive is the game.We touch on FanDuel and DraftKings getting into the PM space as market makers on the exchanges - and have another great Mr. PeanutBettor question of the week.0:00 How we define risk on PMs10:40 Listener Risk Qs1:28:40 News1:48:00 Random Listener QsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it!Follow Clay on twitter: https://x.com/alter_clay0:00 Intro13:00 Getting Started w/ Sports Betting38:00 Switching to Kalshi 1:18:40 Listener QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Nerd alert. The main topic is a discussion on deterministic v. probabilistic models in the current betting environment. News includes the solider who bet on himself to capture a foreign leader and made $440k before getting arrested and a rant on the people complaining about FandDuels injury insurance.0:00 Deterministic v. Stochastic Sports Models26:00 News1:05:15 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we are joined by Justin (https://x.com/LazyBrain64) - a professional basketball bettor who bets only mainlines. That's right - no NBA props!This is a guy who bets his opinion, has lots of manual inputs into his model, and is doing it in what most consider to be one of the toughest markets in the industry. Justin not only drops a lot of betting wisdom, but also life wisdom while he explains his thoughtful path that brought him to professional bettor in a sport that he is obsessed with.0:00 Early Career and Betting28:00 Sports betting trading job52:30 Going full-time as a bettor1:11:20 Basketball Q&A1:41:00 Other Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP tries to get back in the good graces of the sharp taking community while talking about the Masters. SP walks through the golf betting model he spun up just in time for the biggest event of the year. Some news goes the prediction markets way and the boys discuss their favorite books in the questions.0:00 MASTERS RECAP & QUESTIONS53:30 News1:14:30 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode we outline paths for people of all skill levels in the new betting/ predicting ecosystem. GP continues his twitter rant on deci-cent pricing in golf, and the boys answer the rest of the listener questions they missed last episode.0:00 PM paths for bettors of all skill levels38:45 News55:20 Deci-cent Pricing in Golf1:08:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we welcome Alex to the podcast (https://x.com/Landtrader8375). In his first podcast appearance he tells us about leaving his 9 year career in law for full-time betting, how he comes to a hypothesis on big spots that is rarely "wrong", and many fun dead edges and AP shenanigans that include ending up selling lumber after trying to get into real estate.0:00 Intro19:15 First 1st down bet that launched his career34:00 What it takes to be a "Rort" finder53:30 "The Lumber Edge"1:02:15 Dead edges1:17:15 Sizing & dealing w/ opposition1:25:30 Career outlook1:33:10 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode covers a lot of recent news, walks you through how to get started with automated API interaction and muses on  would you rather have a beer w/ the PM doomers or evangelists?0:00 What would your first API project be?24:45 News (Worst two weeks in PMs?)1:05:30 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

For months our podcast has neglected one of the most interesting segments of prediction markets - "Mention Markets". Well no longer! Today we interview Foster, one of the best mention market traders currently operating.He talks about building a database for Football announcers, pricing Trump's speeches, and some hilarious stories from the mention market trenches. Can't miss! Follow Foster on Twitter: https://x.com/Foster0:00 Intro3:15 Video Game Advantage play & Casino Work11:00 Starting on Prediction Markets33:00 Non-sports Markets Master Class51:30 Originating in Mention Markets1:26:00 RFQs1:45:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A.0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown?1:01:00 Rest of News1:12:50 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

NERD ALERT!!We get back to our roots today and talk about how to go about finding stats that are predictive in sports modelling. The episode includes a deep dive into how Kalshi settled & communicated their "Khamenei out as leader" market. We touch on the issues w/ "last traded price" settlement and the similarities to the Cardi B. rules debacle. 0:00 Predictive Sports Stats31:45 Iran Leader Kalshi Market45:50 Rest of News.54:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

*This is a re-broadcast episode because of being unable to record because of travel. MANY FAMOUS PODCASTS DO THIS SO IT MUST BE OKAY. This episode is a good listen for those who are looking to build a basic sports model that spits out a useful number.Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A0:00 Intro2:30 How to Build Sports Models55:51 News1:15:30 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we have on college junior & top prediction market trader Eric (Egzee). Egzee started on OddsJam and quickly worked his way up to the top of Kalshi leaderboards as one of the biggest RFQ market makers in sports. He defends his decision to take an internship at a respected quant firm, and walks us through how he manages one of the biggest Kalshi MM operations as a solo-operator in college. Really mind blowing stuff here - must listen, we learned a lot from Eric.0:00 Intro & Sports Betting Start18:00 Transition to Kalshi55:00 RFQs and Advanced Automation1:21:00 School & Deciding to do an Internship1:38:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The boys start to think insider trading MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM when thousands of minimum wage employees already know the resolution of 50 million contract markets. SP & GP also recap their superbowl betting experience on Kalshi and take questions.0:00 Intro1:45 GP & SP's Super Bowl betting27:15 Cardi B's Epic Performance47:00 Insider Trading on PMs1:01:14 Rest of News13:40 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

IN THIS EPISODE WE ARE JOINED BY ESTEEMED GAMBLING TWITTER POSTER AND ORIGINATOR MR PEANUTBETTOR. LISTEN TO HEAR MANY SMART THINGS AND SOME FUNNY JOKES.0:00 Intro10:15 Trading at Deck Prism27:00 Originating57:00 Prediction Markets1:18:00 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

A heated debate broke out on Twitter between sharp bettors. On one end Establish the Run, a well respected business that sells information to bettors. On the other - sharp sports bettors who either use or have to deal with that information in their market.This debate highlights the fundamental issues that come with selling good information in sports betting, and more broadly the best way to monetize sharp information (JUST BET IT BRO v. Selling)0:00 Intro2:15 ETR & The Challenge of Sharp Touting43:45 News1:00:15 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we interview long-time professional gambler Adam aka BeagleBets (https://x.com/thebeaglebets).Adam quickly rose to the top of the Heads Up SNG ladder, playing $5k buy-ins before dropping out of college to pursue poker full time. From there his career spanned many eras, which got him to where he is today: betting NBA Player Props and betting live sports. Adam is a very kind to share an honest account of the ups and downs of life as a professional bettor, along with advice to those who want to do this full-time but maintain a family and personal life. So much fun to record this one.0:00 Intro2:30 Start with advantage play5:00 Full-time poker13:15 Adding sports when poker got tougher22:30 Building sims & scaling sports betting30:15 Manually betting NBA player props50:30 Transition to live betting1:04:20 How to have a long betting career1:21:40 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode the boys talk about how to go about selecting props & derivatives markets to focus on and how to get started w/ modeling these. The Pick6 past-post scandal takes up a good chunk of the news and the Q&A is very meaty!0:00 How to Pick Props to Bet27:00 DK Pick6 Past-post45:45 Other News1:01:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

You may know him from Bet The Process. You may know him as Dogname atop the Kalshi leaderboard. You may know him as the best golf bettor (RIP GP) around...Rufus Peabody joins the show this week to talk about his betting philosophy and his recent adventure into prediction markets. He's been winning at sports betting since 2008, and is still at the very top of the betting ecosystem today. Must listen!0:00 Intro2:00 Starting in Betting17:00 Going out on Own23:00 Getting Started w/ Golf28:30 Exploring New Sports43:00 What is Rufus' edge?1:101:15 Prediction Markets1:32:55 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We cap off the year with a fun episode where SP and GP recap their 2025 betting year before setting some 2026 goals. The episode ends with 2026 industry predictions and some sappy feelings.0:00 Intro6:00 2025 Recap22:10 2026 "Ins & Outs"1:07:30 2026 PredictionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We did it. We bagged another big guest's first ever podcast appearance. You may know Louie from Twitter (https://x.com/LMastro99) - but if you don't, he has had great success on both sides of the counter as a sportsbook trader and NBA originator. He started at FanDuel before being one of the first people to join NoVig and growing their trading team w/ former guest BigBuckHunter.0:001:30 Getting started with FanDuel22:30 Leaving FD for NoVig30:50 Internal Market Making46:45 Modeling Philosophy1:13:00 The 3 P's Of Betting1:17:00 Tout Thoughts1:32:20 Biggest Exchange Money Makers1:41:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we rip a hot takes episode and talk about how Kalshi has just invented the Parlay. Tons of great questions at the end - thanks for all those who asked a question!0:00 Intro2:20 Hot Takes35:00 News58:30 QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This could be consider our first full Prediction Market focused guest. CSP Trading was an early MM on prediction markets before we had even heard of them. He walks us through the history of PMs through his experience trading on them and growing with the space to where they are now.0:00 Getting Started in PMs13:24 Early Prediction Market War Stories37:45 Insider Trading in PMs45:00 Getting Into Sports56:30 Market Making Strategies1:33:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP and GP talk about times being manual has made them more money than being automated and have a huge post-mortem on the old version of Pick6 where they both lay out most of their strategies. News is crazy as always - Poly US coming, Kalshi & Robinhood breakup, Prime plays it straight w/ winning bettors.Then a big Q&A!0:00 Intro1:15 Why Being Manual is Sometimes Better Than Being Automated22:20 Pick6 Tell-All44:00 News1:23:15 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Huge day - we get Pads (https://x.com/padadiso) to come on his first podcast ever! Pads is one of the most successful bettors of the post-PASPA era, making most of his money live betting on sportsbooks and now exchanges. He talks live betting, joining discords, doing terrible things to Fliff and why it's almost impossible to replicate his edge.Thank you to Pads for coming on and thank you all for your questions!0:00 Intro to Advantage Play9:10 Joining Discords, Buying Tools and Content15:15 Crushing Live Betting44:00 Joining BookieBeats53:30 Prediction Market Taking isn't Dead1:16:15 Going Public on Twitter1:21:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we share the biggest lessons we have learned from posting liquidity on exchanges and taking bets. GP has some more empathy for sportsbooks in some spots and none in others while SP is shocked with how few people have an opinion in today's sharp betting ecosystem.0:00 Things We Learned Posting Liquidity39:10 DK/FD Go for it on PMs50:00 Kalshi on PrizePicks & other news1:08:00 Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

AP of 50+ years, host of Gambling with an Edge and author of Gambling Wizards - Richard Munchkin (https://x.com/RWM21) joins the show. From his start as an AP in old Las Vegas to the end where he shares the most...interesting(?) Bayesian update, this episode is a ride. Richard's story telling is unmatched in the industry - and he has a career of professional gambling to draw content from. We talk about his early days, and what he's doing now with regards to sports betting and other casino games. Can't miss episode!0:00 Intro2:45 How Richard Started w/ AP play12:00 Lost Skill of Being Willing to Battle22:00 Best Disguise Stories28:15 Networking & Working w/ Teams33:15 Traveling the World as an AP46:45 Getting the Money Out is King56:30 How to Scout Games1:18:00 Why Richard Does Content1:39:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We talk about why good gamblers bet too little in big spots, plus Polymarket coming to the US with low fees & why GP is on an anti-courtsiding tirade.We also give our take on why dating sites are like betting markets - and how to avoid adverse selection there.0:00 Intro1:15 Sizing Up32:00 News/Scandals/Fees1:00:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we are joined by Isaac (https://x.com/Ias0801) to talk about his path to pro betting right out of college. He shares stories about how he cracked the madden sim betting market during covid, texted correlated parlays to his bookie (that got accepted) and his work now in the MLB and CBB. Enjoy!0:00 Intro/ Early Advantage Play8:00 Finding a Holy Grail Spot to Start Sports Betting21:45 How to Start Betting your Own Numbers38:20 Specializing in MLB & CBB57:00 Decision to Go Pro (telling your parents)1:05:30 Networking is Like Betting1:12:45 Future Plans & Prediction Markets1:21:00 Q&A and Final ThoughtsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We had so many good questions we had to pivot from our main topic to do a multi-part Q&A/News episode. The first part of the podcast is questions that involve strategy around winning (and not getting crushed) on exchanges. Then news with the Kalshi outage and some other noteworthy items. And finally a mixed bag of questions at the end.0:00 Intro2:00 Prediction Market Power Hour56:20 News1:27:20 Mega Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

You heard about him in Shippers episode. The person who leveraged a friendly VIP host and square looking action into a $400k win at PointsBet - a notoriously tight-fisted book.This week we welcome on the man, the myth, the legend Maple (https://x.com/maple420069) onto the podcast to talk about soft-book war stories and his evolution onto exchanges. Can't miss episode!0:00 Intro1:45 Intro to Advantage Play11:20 SGPs Before They Were Cool20:50 The PointsBet Story42:10 $2M MMA SGP Bad Beat58:58 Shift to Exchanges1:33:00 News, Questions & Hot TakesWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode SP and GP go over a few of the betting projects they started building that never came to fruition. The news is dominated by prediction markets - with a breakdown of the parlay product that Kalshi is offering. And we hit a few listener questions at the end!0:00 Intro4:00 Failed betting projects38:00 News1:26:00 Listener QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode we have on a true legend in the space, Ant DeRosa. Ant worked as a trader at some of the sharpest offshore books before switching sides of the counter and building one of the most successful betting groups currently operating. From dealing with line manipulation to the details behind finding alpha live that you won't see on an odds screen, this has it all. We even get dragged into talking about the ethics around angle shooting and where the line is at the end! This is a can't miss episode if you have any aspirations of betting at the highest levels. Follow Ant on Twitter: https://x.com/DeRosa_Antonino0:00 Intro2:30 Magic the Gathering & Start w/ Pinnacle17:30 Trading at a Sharp Book42:15 Switching to Betting47:15 Bottom Up Live Betting1:05:00 Scaling a Betting Group1:44:00 Q&A and Hot TakesWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we debrief on some of the most important, common threads that ran through our interviews with our recent guests. Why are the vibes based approaches not that far from the data driven? Is anyone really a specialist? Why did three guests say no one can get more out of an account than them?All of this plus news and Q&A - Enjoy!0:00 Intro2:30 Account Maxxing as a Superpower10:20 Operations Over Everything18:30 Specialist or Generalist?25:00 Model Doesn't Need to Be Complicated37:30 No Main Markets41:00 News1:01:50 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we have on at times one of our harshest critics and at other times our biggest cheerleader, The Shipper (@shipthejustice on Twitter)Shipper is that rare person who was successful as a trader at a book and then as a professional bettor. This experience makes him one of the go to experts on the topics of account longevity, priming, and maxing account value. This episode he presents a compelling case for why you should have a poker-style bluffing strategy for betting, talks on why the retweet is the perfect troll, and explains why everything sucks now and it was better before.00:00:00 Intro00:02:40 Tales from the PointsBet Trading Floor00:23:50 Priming and Max Account Value00:41:45 Why it's Better to Have a Partner00:49:10 Build Your Own Models01:00:30 Rorts!01:11:00 Twitter Trolling & Sharp Content01:22:00 PMs, Exchanges & State of the Industry01:45:00 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP says that there may be nothing more predictive of whether someone is a winning bettor than how diligently they track their bets.Is tracking your bets a magic pill that makes anyone profitable? It's not magic - but there are a lot of alpha generating benefits of tracking that go along with the important accounting hygiene and performance measuring.   00:00 – Why Track Your Bets? 05:00 – Taxes & Record Keeping 07:00 – Performance Measurement 16:00 – Alpha Generation & Model Insights 33:00 – Exchanges & DFS Use Cases 44:00 – News Roundup 1:09:00 – Listener QuestionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we interview a man who wears many hats. TV Star, Tennis Bettor, and Author Isaac Rose-Berman.You may know him from the CNN gambling documentary, you may know him as roundrobin42 on twitter, or you may have seen him on Circle Back. But on this show we go deep into his betting first - learning a lot about betting tennis on the way. After that we have a discussion on news/ industry topics where one person (Isaac) actually knows what he's talking about.0:00 Intro to Advantage Gambling9:00 Tennis Betting for Fun and Profit27:30 How to Track Your Subjective Adjustments36:45 Finding Good Non-Major Markets41:30 What's Next in Betting for Isaac?48:00 Isaac's Writing/ Consulting1:02:30 News1:20:40 Q&AIsaac's Newsletter: https://howgamblingworks.substack.com/Isaac's Twitter: https://x.com/roundrobin42Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Regardless of if you think we are in a simulation or not - there is no denying that simulations can make you money sports betting. GP & SP breakdown what a simulation model is, when you should use it, and how you can get started with your own sim this sports season.We get a little technical early - but don't worry, we get really un-technical in the news and Q&A (ending with an actual discussion about sports).00:00: Intro 02:00: Simulations vs. Models in Sports Betting50:00: The CNN Gambling Documentary01:08:00: Prediction Market Rundown w/ TSwift Inside Trading01:26:00: DraftKings Stops Credit Card Deposits & More News01:29:30: Q&A + Bayesian UpdatesWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We are joined by Casino AP turned Sports Bettor Dan aka Dr. Plop. Dan talks to us about getting into advantage play by multi-accounting Instacart signup bonuses. Then his journey continues through blackjack, slots, churn plays and finally ends up at "about 70%" sports betting.Dan now runs a team of 4 that at any moment could be sitting at an electronic horse racing machine or betting six-figures on sports. Like a degen Oceans 11!Follow Dan on Twitter: https://x.com/DrPL0P00:00:45 – Instacart Advantage Play00:13:40 – AP Lessons Applied to Sportsbooks00:30:31 – Making the Switch to Sports00:52:27 – Logistics & Scaling01:15:45 – News01:47:19 – Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Find an amazing edge yet still poor? If so - this episode aims to help you correct that. Along with advice on scaling an edge (including SP's vertical v. horizontal scaling lesson) - we break down a big week of industry news and field some questions regarding Kalshi, working with a group and GPs return to twitter.00:00 Live from Las Vegas – First Impressions02:15 Scaling an Edge: The Most Valuable Skill in Betting04:33 Vertical vs. Horizontal Scaling – Two Paths to Growth08:45 Operational Efficiency & The Big Spot Decision17:09 Applying Skills Across Sports & Markets29:05 Industry News – Ohio Micro-Bet Ban & Pinnacle API Shutdown 1:17:49 Venmo “Gambling” Scandal & Rule vs. Integrity Violations1:22:50 Illinois Surcharge Tax, No-Vig Launch & Exchange Betting1:32:20 Listener Q&A & Book Recommendations2:04:15 Closing Thoughts – Staying Ahead of the Next EdgeWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

NBA prop crusher Calvin (CalvinandHobo) joins the show this week to talk about what it takes to win as a ball-knower who doesn't have a model.Calvin had an interesting journey into professional betting that included becoming a cult hero on JuiceReel before he had to stop posting picks once he won too much and gained too many followers. (He explains why this is a big problem)Calvin doesn't model - but puts in insane hours of research to understand rotations, coach speak and injury predictions. While some bettors rush to bet the injury report - he predicts it.Calvin on Twitter: https://x.com/CalvinAndHobo0:00 - Intro/ Calvin's start betting9:35 – Inside Calvin’s NBA Prop Betting Process14:00 – Coach Honesty Rankings & Rotation Intel20:00 – Why Player Props > Sides & Totals32:00 – Scaling Up, Quitting the Job & Betting Partnerships41:00 – Turning Down Tout Life & Ethics of Selling Picks52:00 – Future of NBA Props & Growth via Volume + SGPs59:30 – Gambling Legislation, Kalshi & Tax Debate1:20:30 – Listener Q&A, Dead Edges & Final ReflectionsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Unfortunately...talking to other people and being social can be really +EVIn this episode we help by giving a dive deep into the how and why of building strong partnerships in the sports betting world. From meeting the right people and forming a core team, to scaling through network effects, online presence, and industry events like BetBash — we cover the strategies, pitfalls, and real-world experiences behind successful collaboration. Plus, we form opinions on key headlines around betting scandals and gambling laws that are very loosely researched then answer your questions. One of the questions involves how to get your wife to like you - so if you need help there it's covered.03:00 Origin Story & Starting the Betting Partnership09:45 Going Solo vs. Teaming Up Early16:00 Expanding the Team & Building a Network21:00 Growing an Online Presence30:00 Best Practices for Networking & Outreach44:00 Plans for BetBash & Guest Recruiting49:30 News (You can get limited in PvP)1:20:00 – Listener Questions: Strategy, Partnerships, Music & MoreWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots.Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some of the biggest bets that hit the exchanges. If you don't listen to this episode you must not like putting down big money on huge edges!Chris on Twitter: https://x.com/flupnolide0:00 Intro & Start of Betting11:30 Rundown of Flup's Operation22:00 Flup's Superpower: Account Priming39:00 Benefit of Winning Circa Survivor44:45 Why do content?53:45 $300k Sinner Bet1:00:00 Gambling Twitter 0 Poker IQ1:06:00 Edge Graveyard1:29:00 Everything Prediction Markets2:05:00 Hot Takes & Bayesian UpdatesWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports.  With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking around new betting markets, they share how smart time use now sets you up for a stronger fall.00:00 – Offseason Mindset06:30 – Cut, Clean, Optimize14:00 – Big Projects That Pay Off22:00 – Poking Around New Markets33:30 – Learning, Documentation & Skill Building48:00 – Industry News & What’s NextWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB?In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill.From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and DFS grinders, Gary walks us through exactly what’s changing, who’s most at risk, and how to protect yourself. Whether you're a solo bettor, a casual casino-goer, or part of a syndicate, this episode could save you thousands—and a major audit headache.Kondler & Associates: https://kondlercpa.com/00:00 – The Big Change: Understanding the BBB Bill09:00 – Real Tax Impact: Examples That Hurt21:00 – Filing as a Pro vs. Amateur36:00 – Sessions Method, W2Gs & Audit Risk51:00 – State-Level Chaos & Planning for 20261:12:00 - GP & SP React & Speculate WildlyWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

 This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen. 0:00 – Opening Thoughts & Why This Episode Exists5:30 – New Jersey Proxy Betting Bill20:30 – The Sweeps Crackdown29:30 – Prediction Markets: The New Gray Market Darling38:30 – Underdog vs. California?55:30 – The Federal Tax Bomb That Could Kill Sports Betting1:08:30 – Malik Beasley’s Sketchy Rebounds Line Movement1:15:30 – Fanatics Passes on Illinois Tax Hike (to You)1:18:30 – SP’s “Bug” Speech1:20:30 – Listener Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on:Why executing an edge beats finding oneEmbracing high-hold markets and "one-way" betsThe value of betting first, asking questions laterWhy hating touts is no longer coolWhether being a pro bettor is a legit data science careerWhy going public with your gambling identity can pay offAnd… how much money it would take for us to quit betting forever?00:00 – Intro01:30 – Hot Take: Execution > Finding Edges12:00 – Hot Take: High Hold = High Opportunity21:00 – Hot Take: Bet First, Ask Questions Later32:00 – Hot Take: Hating Touts Isn’t Cool Anymore40:00 – Hot Take: Pro Betting is Good Data Science Job44:00 – Hot Take: Why Being Public Helps58:00 – News Roundup (Poker Scandal, FanDuel, CA Ban)01:16:00 – Q&A: Working with Mules01:36:00 – Q&A: How Much to Quit Betting Forever?01:43:00 – Q&A: Model Graveyard + Project Ideas02:01:00 – Teaser: Bayesian Update of the WeekWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds! Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting51:23 News1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick61:18:45 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.You can find Akash in the GP Discord under the name joshroyale00:00 Show Intro 01:50 Yankees Front Office 11:05 Transition from Sports Analytics to Betting  23:30 Data Pipelines, Friction Reduction and Useful Features  39:45 AI vs. Pro Sports Bettor49:50 Modeling Philosophy: Transparency vs. Black Boxes  1:11:35 Handling Downswings and Model Validation  1:17:00 News Roundup: IL Tax, FanDuel Ban, Polymarket x Twitter  1:30:50 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.0:00 Intro3:50 Distributions1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike1:18:44 Poker Scandal1:39:33 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013