Energy Markets Daily

Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +3.5% YoY, +6.7% vs. 5-yr avg. EIA expects $3.10 Q2/Q3. Geopolitical: US-Iran far apart, Trump rejected Iran proposal, Pentagon costs $29B, Strait traffic down 80-90%, Iran threatens 90% uranium enrichment if Project Freedom resumes. Inflection point: deal or escalation. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. Capital preservation first.

Tuesday, May 12, 2026. WTI $97.01-$98.25, recent high $100.37. Mixed signals: Investing.com Strong Sell vs. CSFX bullish D1 (price above EMA20/50/200, RSI 54.29). RSI(14) 45.70 (neutral), STOCH 34.42 (sell), MACD 0.42 (buy), Williams %R -90 (oversold). Resistance $98.97/$99.87/$101.04, support $96.90/$95.73/$94.83. CSFX trade: buy $97-99, SL $93.50, TP1 $104, TP2 $108-110. ATR 1.01 (high volatility). Henry Hub $2.847 (+5-6%), spot $2.91, June $2.817 (+2.18%). Strong Buy bias: all 12 MAs buy, 8/9 indicators buy. RSI 63.27 (buy), MACD 0.011 (buy), CCI 164 (buy), Williams %R -14.67 (overbought). Crude mixed, gas strong buy. Geopolitical premium still in market.

Monday, May 11, 2026. BREAKING: Project Freedom paused after 24 hours. Iran claims disabled 4 US vessels (US denies). Trump pitching "Project Freedom Plus" — full expansion to reopen strait if no deal soon. Ball in Tehran's court. WTI $98.38 (EIA May 7), range $95-$101, June futures $95.42 (+0.64%). Henry Hub spot $2.67, Markets Insider $2.83, June futures $2.750 (-0.69%). EIA: commercial crude -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg), gasoline -2.5M (4% below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if escalation. Negotiations critical. Trade the data.

Friday, May 8, 2026. Kazakhstan is Central Asia's energy powerhouse. 9th largest oil producer globally. April 2026: 1.93M bbl/d, up month-on-month. Oil/gas condensate output +16% MoM. 2026 target: 100.5M tons, but CPC pipeline issues may cause shortfall. Forecasts: 1.7-1.97M bbl/d. Q1 2026 natural gas: 13.6 Bcm, down 15.1% YoY. 2026 forecast: 62.7 Bcm. KazMunayGas 2025: 26.211M tons (+10% YoY), 2026 outlook 26.4M tons. OPEC+ quotas constraining growth. Druzhba pipeline issues: 260K tons rerouted to Germany (May 2026). NATO partner, EU energy supplier. Inflection point: infrastructure constraints vs. production strength. Watch CPC pipeline, OPEC+ quotas, ramp announcements. Could be swing producer for global markets.

Thursday, May 7, 2026. Sudan is a cautionary tale. Pre-war (April 2023): 70,000 bbl/d. Now: 30,000 bbl/d. 57% collapse. Heglig field (largest) lost 20,000-25,000 bbl/d due to shutdowns and damage. Energy Minister: 50% production loss since war start. Oil infrastructure is frontline asset. Rival factions broker temporary truces to maintain minimal flows. Refineries shut down. Fuel shortages widespread. War cost billions in lost revenues. Sudan's crisis marginalized in global markets — doesn't threaten world energy security. South Sudan spillover: sharing fields/pipelines, facing similar disruptions but targeting 100,000 bbl/d ramp. Sudan in productive paralysis.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Ontario is Canada's most populous province but a rounding error in oil and gas. Crude: 498 bbl/d (2023), <0.1% of Canada's total, down from 1.3M bbl/d in 2013. Remaining reserves: 10M barrels. Natural gas: 6.2 MMcf/d (2023), <0.1% of Canada's total, down from 12.3 in 2013. Remaining: 650 Bcf. Ontario produces <1% of refinery crude needs, relies entirely on US imports. Energy transition focus: nuclear and hydroelectric. Historical footnote: Canada's first commercial oil well drilled here in 1858. Now a relic. Watch Alberta, not Ontario.

Tuesday, May 5, 2026. WTI June futures $101.94, intraday $102.17 (+0.23%), continuous contract $104.34. Prediction markets: 61¢ for $102+. Resistance $102-103, support $100/$98/$95. Project Freedom launched overnight — US military guiding ships, Iran sank six boats after attack attempt. Clashes reported. Inflection point: if Hormuz opens, crude $70-75; if escalation, $120-150. Henry Hub spot $2.86 (+2.77%), forward curve steep. Crude down 6.2M, gasoline down 6.1M, distillate down 4.5M. Volatility extreme. Capital preservation first.

Monday, May 4, 2026. BREAKING: Trump announces "Project Freedom" — US begins escorting neutral ships from Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Iran protests, calls it ceasefire violation. Trump signals "very positive discussions" with Iran, potential deal coming. WTI $101.89 (-0.05%), June futures $101.81, July $96.64. Henry Hub June $2.825 (+1.62%), July $3.119 (+1.43%). EIA: crude -6.2M, gasoline -6.1M, distillate -4.5M, refinery util 89.6%. Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if talks fail. Trade the data.

Friday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: China. World's largest energy consumer: 14M bpd oil, 600 Bcm/yr gas. Imports 10M bpd, 45% from Middle East including Iran. Hormuz blockade threatens energy security. World's largest solar/EV producer. Energy transition gradual. Geopolitical leverage: could pressure US on blockade or accelerate transition. Watch imports, renewable policy, China-US relations.

Thursday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Norway. World's 2nd-largest crude exporter (1.7M bpd), 3rd-largest gas exporter (120 Bcm/yr). Supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas. NATO ally, EEA member. 98% hydropower. Energy transition challenge: economy dependent on oil/gas revenues. Geopolitical leverage in Hormuz blockade scenario. Watch production data, policy shifts, new field development.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026. WTI closes $107.11 (+7.19% or +$7.18), open $99.41, high $107.65. Trump rejects Iran deal, prepares extended blockade. Henry Hub $2.64 (-1.92%), down 8.58% monthly. EIA: commercial crude -6.2M to 459.5M, distillate -11% below avg, refinery util 89.6%. Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if blockade holds. Trade the data.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026. WTI $97.38 (+1.05%), range $96.26-$97.55. Inverted head and shoulders intact, buyers control. Trump rejects Iran proposal, maintains blockade. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Henry Hub $2.717 (-0.51%), Strong Buy technicals, 7 Buy signals, overbought RSI/CCI. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Monday, April 27, 2026. BREAKING: Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz + extend ceasefire indefinitely if US lifts blockade. Trump convening Situation Room. WTI $95-$96, Brent $105+. Henry Hub $2.57-$2.81. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, April 24, 2026. WTI opens $92, surges to $97 (+$7.74 week). Inverted head and shoulders bullish setup. Strait of Hormuz near-zero traffic. Iran's "Tehran Tollbooth" demands $2M per vessel. Henry Hub $2.58 (-1.43%), down 11.52% monthly. Forward curve steep. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, April 23, 2026. WTI surges to $97.19, settles $94.49 (+1.65%). EIA crude inventories +1.9M (expected -1.2M). Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran renewed vessel attacks. Negotiations stalled. Gas flat at $2.72 on steep forward curve. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely. Blockade remains. Iran's parliament calls for military escalation. API crude draw beats expectations. Gas forward curve steep on LNG demand. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, April 21, 2026. WTI slips 1.5% to $88 on mixed peace talk signals. Iran signals escalation. Gas storage hits triple-digit excess. Golden Pass LNG exporting first cargo. Trade the data, not the fear.

Monday, April 20, 2026. Strait of Hormuz traffic down dramatically — only fraction of usual 130 vessels per day. War risk insurance at 3%. Iran firing warning shots, U.S. seized Iranian cargo ship. Trump blockade announced. WTI volatile on supply uncertainty. Henry Hub at $3.095 (April), 12-month strip $3.766. LNG exports 17.9 Bcf/d (record). 2026 forecast 17.0 Bcf/d, 2027 forecast 18.6 Bcf/d. New capacity 0.9 Bcf/d coming Q2. Summer demand, data center load growth driving tighter balance. Trade the data, not the fear.

Friday, April 17, 2026. South Africa produces virtually no crude oil. Current output: 550 barrels per day. Imports 95-100% of consumption (~700k bpd). Refining capacity 360k bpd, down from 80% domestic. April 1 fuel shock: petrol +R5/l, diesel +R8/l. Strategic reserves 8M barrels. Gas shortage reliant on Mozambique imports. Offshore potential: 13k MMbbl liquids, 38 Bcf gas. Brulpadda/Luiperd undeveloped. TotalEnergies 2026 drilling. Market size $91M (2024) → $325M (2033). 2026 critical for reforms. Next week: live industry updates resume.

Thursday, April 16, 2026. Colorado ranks #6 nationally by barrels of oil equivalent. DJ Basin dominates. Natural gas production 160,855 MMcf (Jan 2026). Proven reserves 1.442 billion barrels. Regulatory squeeze: air quality rules, water recycling mandate, methane emissions. Ballot measures threaten industry. Economic impact: $57.5B GDP, 325K jobs. Next week: live industry updates resume.

Wednesday, April 15, 2026. WTI trading $91-93 range, down from Monday's $104.90. EIA inventory report at 9:30 AM ET. Strait of Hormuz 95% traffic collapse. Henry Hub $2.60. Crude caught between supply disruption and demand destruction.

Tuesday, April 14, 2026. WTI at $96.87, down 2% from Monday's spike. Head and shoulders reversal forming. Neckline support at $95-$97. Henry Hub at $2.62, down 0.42%. Peace talk hopes fading war premium.

Monday, April 13, 2026. WTI at $104.90, up 8.64%. Brent at $102.20, up 7.38%. Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade. Ceasefire talks failed. JPMorgan warns $120 possible.

Friday, April 10, 2026. Morocco's energy paradox: 87.5% dependent yet North Africa's renewable leader. Nador LNG terminal Q4 2026. Tendrara gas mid-2026. Africa's first offshore wind farm 2029.

Thursday, April 9, 2026. WTI $96.88, up 2.62%. Hormuz reopening eases supply fears, but Iran attacks Saudi pipeline. Ceasefire fragile. Trade the levels.

Wednesday, April 8, 2026. BREAKING: Two-week ceasefire agreed. Strait of Hormuz reopening. WTI plunged 14.3% to $96.82. War premium evaporated. Thesis vindicated. Mean reversion in progress. Henry Hub $2.77. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, April 7, 2026. WTI trading in a $102.18 to $104.54 range. Price has overcome obstacles near $102, signaling re-entry into a bullish zone. RSI near 64. Henry Hub $2.80. Trump 8 PM ET deadline for Iran ceasefire. Trade the data, not the hope.

Monday, April 6, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Thailand. Largest LNG capacity in SE Asia, declining domestic production, 50% crude from Middle East, LNG hub ambitions, 47% emissions reduction target by 2035.

Friday, April 3, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Portugal. Sines LNG terminal, 70%+ renewable electricity, hydrogen pilot, zero domestic production, gateway to Southern Europe. Show returns Tuesday, April 7th.

Thursday, April 2, 2026. WTI surged to $104.96, up 4.84%. Trump addressed the nation. Iran denies direct talks but messages exchanged. Britain convening 35 countries on Strait reopening. Henry Hub $2.86, decoupled. Trade the data, not the hope.

Wednesday, April 1, 2026. WTI broke $100. Now trading $103.05. Prediction markets pricing 65¢ for $105+. Trump says ops could end in two weeks. Strait still closed. Henry Hub $2.87, decoupled. Trade the data, not the hope.

Tuesday, March 31, 2026. WTI holding $98-102 range. Prediction markets pricing 59¢ for $100+ by March 31. $100 is psychological and technical. Gas at $3.00, neutral to bullish. Trade the levels.

Monday, March 30, 2026. Day 30. WTI closed at $99.64, Brent at $112.57. Pentagon preparing ground options including Kharg Island. Iran rejects US terms. Russia loses 40% export capacity. OPEC+ meets April 5. Binary weekend risk. Capital preservation first.

Thursday, March 26, 2026. WTI rebounds to $91.21, up 1% from yesterday's crash. Iran rejects US 15-point proposal but White House says talks ongoing. Iran counters with 5 conditions including Strait sovereignty. Henry Hub $2.96. Range-bound until clarity.

Wednesday, March 25, 2026. WTI crashes 5% to $87.68. Trump's 15-point settlement proposal sent to Iran. Strait of Hormuz as free maritime zone on the table. Iran denies talks. Henry Hub $2.88. The next 72 hours are critical.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026. WTI at $91.61, broke ascending trendline. Rectangle pattern $94.99-$99.69. Fib resistance at $90.98, $93.16, $95.33. 100 SMA crossing below 200 SMA. Henry Hub $2.94. Trade the levels.

Monday, March 23, 2026. We're back. WTI near $98, Day 24 of US-Iran conflict. Strait of Hormuz still closed. 73% probability WTI stays above $97. Henry Hub $3.06, consolidating. Trade the range. Respect the levels.

Friday, March 20, 2026. China spotlight: Oil demand +1% stagnant. Gas demand +4-5% to 455 bcm. Coal rebounding. State Grid investing $574B through 2030. Power demand hitting 11,000 TWh. Live updates resume Monday.

Thursday, March 19, 2026. Chile spotlight: 24% of global copper, 33.6% of lithium reserves. $104B mining investment through 2034. SQM-Codelco deal through 2060. Indispensable to the energy transition. Live updates resume Monday.

Wednesday, March 18, 2026. Alberta spotlight: Trans Mountain unlocking Asian markets. 213 rigs, 5,709 wells projected. Gas output near 20 bcf/day. LNG Canada online. $100B data center target. Live updates resume Monday.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026. WTI near $100, Day 17 of US-Iran conflict. Key resistance at $105.85 — failure means $92-88, breakout means $116-119. Henry Hub $3.25, EIA targets $3.80. Trade the levels.

Monday, March 16, 2026. WTI spiked to $102.40 overnight, pulled back to $98.12. US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island. Strait of Hormuz still shut. Henry Hub at $3.11, consolidating above $3.00. Stay patient.

Friday, March 13, 2026. Week 11 recap: Most volatile week since 2022. WTI swung $83-$105-$83-$97. IEA released 400M barrels. Strait of Hormuz closed. Henry Hub breaks out to $3.25. Gas target $4.00+ intact.

Thursday, March 12, 2026. WTI whipsaws to $93.74, up 7.4%. IEA approves 400M barrel emergency release. Strait of Hormuz still shut. Henry Hub spikes to $3.24. Maximum volatility. Capital preservation first.

Wednesday, March 11, 2026. WTI collapses from $105 to $83-87, down 8-9% overnight. Ceasefire talks emerged. War premium repricing fast. Henry Hub steady at $3.02. Decoupling validated.

Monday, March 9, 2026. WTI explodes to $103-105, highest since July 2022. Up 30%+ in two weeks. Strait of Hormuz restricted. Henry Hub breaks $3.18. Crisis mode. Capital preservation first.

Friday, March 6, 2026. Week 10 recap: WTI exploded from $67 to $80, up 18%+ on wartime pricing. Strait of Hormuz closed. Henry Hub at $2.98, decoupled. Capital preservation first.

Thursday, March 5, 2026. WTI at $75.71, pushing toward $76. Up 19% monthly. Henry Hub at $2.96, decoupled. War premium embedded. Capital preservation first.

Wednesday, March 4, 2026. WTI surges to $74.83, 8.5-month high. Strait of Hormuz closed. Drone strikes on Saudi Ras Tanura. Henry Hub at $3.06. Capital preservation first.

Tuesday, March 3, 2026. WTI at $71.60, off Monday's 10% spike. Resistance $71.38, support $67. Henry Hub at $2.96. Trade the charts, respect the levels.