Making Sense

Markets continue to climb, with equities reaching new highs alongside strong earnings growth—but rising inflation, higher interest rates, and energy risks are also in focus. In this episode, we cover the latest market momentum, what to watch in upcoming Federal Reserve communications, and the megacap tech earnings rally. We also highlight the importance of global oil flows and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Key topics: Fed policy, earnings trends, and geopolitical developments.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers what to watch in the week ahead. U.S. equities pushed to fresh all‑time highs last week, with the S&P 500 now more than 15% above its late‑March lows. This move reflects more than geopolitics, as corporate earnings results—particularly for mega‑cap technology—continue to outperform expectations. Fresh economic data comes out next week, with April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data arriving alongside the final stretch of a blockbuster Q1 earnings season. Episode highlights Equities at record highs: The S&P 500 continues to reset highs with strong Q1 corporate earnings and margin growth Inflation in focus: Headline CPI expected near 3.7–3.8% YoY, with energy prices remaining elevated PPI insight: Key signal on whether producers are absorbing higher input costs or passing them through the supply chain Retail sales watch: High gasoline prices likely boost nominal spending, so a closer look at core categories is necessary Earnings momentum: About 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations so far for Q1

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, discusses what to watch in the week ahead. U.S. equities hit new all-time highs alongside rising oil prices as markets focused on strong mega cap tech earnings, resilient growth, and an AI driven investment boom that supported solid Q1 GDP. We recap the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady amid rare dissents and preview key labor market data, explaining why slower job growth doesn’t necessarily point to recession—and what to watch this week. Key Topics • Stock market highs and oil prices • AI investment and economic growth • Federal Reserve policy and dissents • JOLTS, payrolls, and unemployment • Market risks and weekly catalysts

In April’s market update, Phillip Neuhart and Blake Taylor break down how global events—including the war in the Middle East—and rapid advances in artificial intelligence are shaping energy markets, inflation, and investor sentiment. Despite a sharp oil price shock and elevated geopolitical risk, U.S. equities have remained resilient, supported by strong corporate earnings and improving fundamentals. What might higher energy prices mean for consumers—and for economic growth in the months ahead? Phil and Blake also put today’s AI investment wave into historical context—from railroads and electrification to the rise of the internet. They explore why this surge matters, how quickly adoption is spreading across industries, and what this buildout could mean for productivity, corporate margins, and the labor market. For more information, visit https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-april-market-update.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, shares what to watch in the week ahead. 1. Q1 Earnings season 2. Federal Reserve meeting 3. GDP data 4. Price and inflation data

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst discusses what to watch in the week ahead. 1. Middle East developments 2. Q1 earnings season 3. Senate confirmation hearing

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst reviews what to watch in the week ahead: 1. Developments in the Middle East 2. Q1 earnings season 3. Company and Fed anecdotes 4. Producer prices

Phillip Neuhart, Head of Market and Economic Research, and Thomas O'Keefe, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, talk about how we think about taxes as part of our investment strategy and philosophy.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst reviews the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. CPI inflation data 2. Fed meeting minutes 3. Personal income and spending data

Market and Economic Research Analyst, Blake Taylor covers the week ahead. 1. Employment data 2. Job openings and job cuts 3. ISM manufacturing index

This is the audio from March 24, 2026’s Making Sense Market update. Each month, our team takes a deep dive into markets and the economy. Link to access the video and charts: https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-march-market-update In March’s Market Update, Brent Ciliano and Phillip Neuhart took a close look at the conflict in the Middle East, as well as other impactful developments in markets and the economy, including artificial intelligence, private credit, and analyst expectations for company earnings. Geopolitical risk has been on the rise for many years. Oil prices and inflation concerns are certainly elevating uncertainty. How do today’s prices rank among other historical oil shocks, and how are businesses and consumers reacting so far?

Market and Economic Research Analyst, Blake Taylor, presents the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. Commodity prices 2. Global central bank communications 3. Company commentaries For more information, visit firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook.

On Monday, March 16, 2026, Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, shared what to watch this week: 1. Middle East updates 2. The Federal Reserve meeting 3. Producer level inflation

On Monday, March 9, 2026, Phillip Neuhart, Head of Market and Economic Research, and Thomas O’Keefe, Managing Director of Portfolio Strategy, talked about how we’re thinking about portfolio positioning in light of recent geopolitical headlines and market events. With news rapidly changing, investors can easily get lost in the noise. Learn how we’re navigating headlines and portfolios positioning. Additional links regarding the conflict in the Middle East: • In Brief 03.09.2026 https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth • Conflict in the Middle East: Navigating the first few days: https://www.firstcitizens.com/content/dam/firstcitizens/pdfs/wealth/market-outlook/2026/conflict-in-middle-east-first-days.pdf • February’s Market Update: https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-february-market-update

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. Inflation data 2. Household net worth 3. Personal income & spending

This is the audio from February 25, 2026’s Making Sense Market update. Each month, our team takes a deep dive into markets and the economy. Link to access the video and charts: https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-february-market-update This month, Phillip Neuhart and Blake Taylor talked about the housing market, policy developments and the outlook for jobs and inflation. They also reviewed trends in fixed income and equity markets, including valuations and the recent broadening of equity market returns. AI enthusiasm—and CapEx spending—is off the charts, reminiscent of some of the biggest investment projects in history like railroads and the internet buildout. What does this mean for markets and the economy, and what should investors consider moving forward?

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, discusses what to watch for the week ahead in markets and the economy. 1. Employment data 2. ISM indices 3. January retail sales.

Blake Taylor, Market & Economic Research Analyst looks to the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. Housing market data 2. Tech earnings 3. Ongoing risks

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. Q4 GDP estimates 2. Personal income & spending 3. Fed policy insights

On today's In Brief, Phillip Neuhart discusses the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. January employment data 2.Consumer price index 3. Retail sales data

This is the audio from January 2026’s Making Sense Market update. Each month, our team takes a deep dive into markets and the economy. Link to access the video and charts: https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2026/making-sense-january-market-update In this month's market update, Chief Investment Officer, Brent Ciliano, and Senior Director of Market and Economic Research, Phillip Neuhart, discussed inflation trends, the slowing labor market, and a richly valued equity market.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, discusses what to watch this week. 1. Jobs data 2. Consumer sentiment 3. Q4 earnings season

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, talks about the week ahead for markets and the economy. 1. Home price data 2. What to expect at the Federal Reserve meeting 3. Q4 earnings season

Thomas O’Keefe, Managing Director of Investment Strategy and Partnership, and Phillip Neuhart, Senior Director of Market and Economic Research talked with Randall Huss, Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at First Citizens Bank about the basics bond investing.

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers items to watch in the week ahead. 1. Personal income & Spending. 2. Q4 earnings season

Blake Taylor, Market and Economic Research Analyst, covers items to watch in the week ahead. 1. Inflation data 2. Retail sales 3. Q4 earnings season

Thomas O’Keefe, Managing Director of Investment Strategy and Partnership, and Phillip Neuhart, Senior Director of Market and Economic Research talked with Bryan Light, Senior Portfolio Manager and leader of equity strategy for First Citizens Bank about how his team evaluate companies. We often talk about earnings growth and margins as part of market fundamentals and quantitative investing. What’s the difference between qualitative and quantitative investing? What attributes (or factors) do we consider when evaluating stocks? Do some factors matter more than others?

What to watch in the week ahead: 1. Employment report 2. Job market data 3. ISM indices

On December 17, 2025, Chief Investment Officer Brent Ciliano, Senior Director of Market and Economic Research Phillip Neuhart, and Market and Economic Research Analyst Blake Taylor delivered our 2026 Market Outlook. After weathering a tumultuous start to the year, the US economy and financial markets are ending 2025 close to the consensus expectations from a year ago. Where do interest rates go from here? Will markets see more volatility next year? What are the headwinds and tailwinds for 2026 and beyond? Learn more in the 2026 Market Outlook companion commentary: https://www.firstcitizens.com/content/dam/firstcitizens/pdfs/wealth/market-outlook/2025/2026-market-outlook.pdf Watch the video: https://www.firstcitizens.com/wealth/market-outlook/2025/making-sense-december-market-update

Items to watch this week: 1. Employment data 2. CPI 3. Policymaker commentary

Thomas O'Keefe, Managing Director of Portfolio Strategy and Partnership, and Phillip Neuhart, Senior Director of Market & Economic Research, discuss what Fed policy can control and what it can't. What should investors consider in this rate environment?

Items to watch this week: 1. Federal Reserve meeting 2. Job openings and labor turnover 3. Small business optimism

What to watch in the week ahead: 1. ISM survey indices 2. Labor market data 3. Personal income and spending 4. Consumer sentiment

What to watch this week: 1. Official releases including producer price index and retail sales 2. Jobless claims 3. Fed comments and speeches ahead of rate decision

Items to watch this week: 1. Official data releases 2. Inflation and employment data 3. Fed policymaker speeches

Coming up this week: 1. Inflation commentary 2. Washing policy updates 3. Fed policymaker speeches

What to watch in the week ahead: 1. Private employment data 2. ISM manufacturing and services indices 3. Fed policymaker speeches

What to watch this week: 1. Federal Reserve meeting 2. Q3 GDP alternative data sources 3. Q3 earnings season

What to watch this week: 1. Consumer price index report 2. Trade policy updates 3. Q3 earnings results

This week, investors will focus on: 1. Fed policymaker speeches 2. Q3 earnings season 3. Washington policy developments

Learn about the philosophy structuring portfolios, rebalancing practices, and fund manager selection. Phillip Neuhart and Thomas O’Keefe discuss our portfolio positioning strategies for Q4.

This week, investors will watch: 1. Communications from the Federal Reserve 2. Consumer Sentiment survey data from the University of Michigan 3. Other alternate data sources during official data pause

This week, key events to watch: 1. September's Employment report (0:40) 2. Services and Manufacturing data (0:58) 3. Fed speeches throughout the week (1:37)

This week, market watchers will follow: 1. Fed policymaker speeches (0:43) 2. Income, spending, and inflation data (1:18) 3. Legislative bugetary developments (1:42)

Phillip Neuhart and Thomas O’Keefe walk through the core investment philosophy tenets of First Citizens Wealth.

Happening this week: 1. Federal Reserve Rate Decision (0:21) 2. Retail Sales Data (1:17) 3. Housing Starts (1:32) 4. Jobless Claims (1:43)

Items to watch this week: 1. Inflation data (0:12) 2. Jobless claims (0:58) 3. Consumer sentiment (1:13)

Things to watch this week: 1. August's Employment Report 2. Services and manufacturing data 3. Job openings and layoffs

This week, markets and investors should focus on: 1. Fed policymaker speeches 2. House price data 3. Inflation data