Panda Perspecticast

Good evening, not too bee to cavalier about it, but $NVDA has opened up a can of worms by being “really overvalued” and then goin on to 10x from there in fairly short order. This sort of things ruins people and their investing approachers. As a certified Vaule Respector, I do feel somewhat like a fish out of water, but investing in AI and anything to do with it demands a growth mindset. So here it goes. I proceed to explain why there’s a chance for these things, despite trading at up to 1800x earnings today go on to 10x in the next few years. Do check out the articles below. They are behind a paywall, so do consider signing up if you are interested. Similarly if you are interested in having a more detailed conversation along the lines of the pod or indeed anything else in China and Asia, do reach out. Join the Founder tier to start, or browse the full advisory menu. Drop us an email with “Upgrade” in the subject line, and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours.Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, Wanted to address the East vs West and some other narratives that seem obvious but maybe aren’t in the semiconductor space. This discussion builds on the 3 articles published in this review so far:* East vs West, where the key battle lines are drawn* China’s Policy review: what the government is doing to spur domestic semiconductor sector growth. (Free Article) * The Equipment Revolution: the race in all parts of the tool making value chainAs with all the other pieces in the series, this is series, it’s paywalled, Do upgrade/join up if you’re interested, we’d love to have you!Turn context into conviction with Panda Perspectives+:You already read the Substack for big-picture clarity.Panda Perspectives+ adds the action layer live, personalised and ready when you are.Advisory toolbox* 1-on-1 strategy sessionsDirect time with our senior China-Asia analysts—for CIOs, PMs, analysts or founders who need to stress-test a thesis before capital moves.* Custom deep-dive researchFrom a 40-page teardown of BYD’s SiC supply chain to a same-week model on Shanghai micro-fabs delivered to your brief and timeline.* Live Q&A briefings for teams and ICsInteractive calls (slides + recording included) that arm the entire desk with up-to-the-minute intelligence.* Panda Hand-Hold conciergeA dedicated analyst on speed-dial for emerging and private investors, quarterly portfolio health checks to iron out A-share quirks and FX traps, plus 30-minute mini-masterclasses that decode SAFE rules, cross-border custody and dual-currency settles.Active mandates on our desk* China’s evolving consumer-spend mix* 3Q25 macro trajectory & policy inflection points* Factory automation and the robotics super-cycle* Breakthroughs in Chinese healthcare* Latest EV-market shake-ups and winnersReady to sharpen your edge? Join in to the Founder tier for the intro service or browse the full advisory menu, or email us with “Upgrade”in the subject line and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours.Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good evening, here’s the rough breakdown of whats to come: Total Companies in Coverage: 90Pure Semiconductor Companies: 68 (75.5%)Coverage by Article:Article 1 & 2: Macro overview of the space and policy Article 3 (Equipment): 6 companies in focusArticle 4 (Foundries): 6 companiesArticle 5 (Memory): 8 companiesArticle 6 (AI): 4 companiesArticle 7 (Power/Auto): 7 companiesArticle 8 (Mobile): 9 companiesArticle 9 (Analog): 4 companiesArticle 10 (Connectivity): 6 companiesArticle 11 (Assembly): 4 companiesArticle 12 (Design/IP): 8 companiesArticle 13 (Future Tech): 4 companiesArticle 14 (Ranking): all 90 companiesJoin up if you want to join us on this journey. Have a great day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Morning,Please do check out our note on EVs available here: I make reference to this data on the costs of EVs vs ICE (imperfect, but it gives a ballpark). New Li i8:have a good one,Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this. Copper* Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020* Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800* Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, * Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market.Zinc* Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026* TCs rising; mine supply returning* Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025.Tin* Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar)* Inventories low: * Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves.Nickel* Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026* LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative* NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality.Cobalt* DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports* ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days* But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E)⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term.Lithium* China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026* Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain* LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily* Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom.Have a good day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Date: Thursday, 15 May 2025Episode Summary:This week’s episode comes to you fresh from a packed week of company meetings, investor discussions, and on-site visits across Asia, capped off by an excellent Macquarie-hosted conference. Leonid reflects on what he saw and heard, and how it informs the evolving Panda Portfolio positioning.Key Takeaways:* 🏢 On the Ground in Asia:A long but rewarding week attending site visits and investor meetings across the region. Don’t miss our latest Property Management deep-dive published this Monday for a detailed write-up of the sector.* 🇨🇳 China: Automation and Consumption Themes on Display:Two core theses came alive during the trip:* Robotics & Automation are “humming along” with visible signs of industrial intensity.* Consumption is gaining momentum, underpinned by impressive and well-run consumer-facing businesses. A reminder to revisit the retail/restaurant chain thesis in more detail soon.* 📈 CATL Hong Kong IPO:The $5bn listing was over 30x oversubscribed — a clear sign of investor appetite. Expect a shift into CATL in the Panda Portfolio this Friday.* 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Quietly Compelling:The country continues to present interesting opportunities and warrants a dedicated write-up, likely in June.* 🇮🇳 India Panel Takeaways:Despite attending a thoughtful panel on India, the valuation concerns remain front and center. The growth story is appealing, but we’re holding off for now.* 🏅 Conference Shout-Out:Big thanks to Macquarie for hosting — fantastic venue, high-quality access to corporates, and great conversations throughout.📌 Mentioned Content:* China Property Management Sector Deep Dive – May 2025 (link to the Substack article)Hope you enjoy it, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, As mentioned on the pod, please sign up to get the full piece on China property coming out tomorrow. Also do check out the China Daily Opinion Piece we published this Morning. Click here. This week we’re focusing on theProperty space, while next week we’re following up with a review of Property Management sector and HK Conglomerates and Developers review. Have a great Week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, Do check out the macro notes form last week: China Macro Snapshot after 1Q25: The difficult transition, the reasons for hope.China Property: From Collapse to Calm?: A deep look at how the sector is stabilizing — and what it still lacks.Chinese Consumption 2025: Cooling spending, persistent strength, and where the real opportunities may lie.AS announced on the pod we’re moving in to Property, the entire series will be paywalled, so do please join up if you’re interested. Serious about Asia investing? Your process needs more Panda. For those looking for personalised support — whether it’s China consumer, 2Q25 market strategy, or robotics and industrials — we’re also offering advisory calls. Learn more here or message us directly to book a time.Reminder: Nothing in this Substack is investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only. Please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.🐼 Panda Takeaways – What Chinese Brokers vs US Banks See in China’s April Politburo Meeting🛡️ Bottom-line thinking is back — and bipartisanBoth camps agree: China is preparing for more turbulence, especially from Trump’s tariff volleys. “Prepare for the worst” is now official doctrine, with the policy arsenal ready to fire if needed.🏗️ Fiscal: fast-forward, not firehoseChinese brokers expect a Q2 surge in local government bond issuance, with a focus on tangible projects like equipment upgrades, trade-in subsidies, and urban resettlement.US banks agree on front-loading but warn that without stronger demand-side stimulus, the impact may underwhelm.💰 Monetary easing: timing vs targetingConsensus holds that RRR and rate cuts are coming.Chinese brokers highlight new structural tools — relending for services, elderly care, and tech — as a sign of targeted support.US banks see easing too, but frame it as reactive, expecting stronger signals only after weak Q2 data.🛍️ Consumption: the macro swing factorBoth sides spotlight efforts to boost household spending, especially in services. Subsidies, financial tools, and income support are on the way.Chinese brokers go further — seeing this as a pivot in market leadership, with sectors like catering, internet, and alcohol poised to benefit.US banks see it more as a policy checkbox than a market catalyst (for now).🏘️ Property: from ‘just enough’ to ‘good enough’Chinese brokers emphasize a shift to high-quality housing, speeding up monetized resettlement in urban villages, and buying up unsold homes.US banks are more cautious — they see the same tools being recycled with limited impact unless demand improves organically.🔄 Exports: redirect, finance, surviveAgreement here: tariff-hit exporters will get financing support, redirected to domestic markets, and benefit from harmonized standards.Chinese brokers see scope for structural change and SME resilience; US banks are skeptical these offset global demand loss.🔧 Reform: still grinding, still relevantChinese brokers highlight continued reforms: building a unified national market, regulating fair competition, and opening services.US banks downplay this — reform is background music, not the main theme.Have a great week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, The Macro Week kicks off with this Podcast. As discussed on it - do expect the first article to hit your inbox shortly after this. As ever happy to hear any and all feedback!Have a great day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Afternoon, to freshen things up we’re coming to you form the Peace Hall in Halifax, West Yorkshire. Hope you enjoy the change of Scenery! 🐣 Easter Special! 🐣Now’s the time to go full Panda—get 20% off ALL Panda Perspectives subscription levels, forever.No code needed. No gimmicks. Just lasting insight at a lower price.Offer ends April 21, so hop to it:👉 https://leonidmironov.substack.com/97a754ebHave aGreat week ahead! Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Afternoon, an extra long pod today talking about the trade war, tariffs and outcomes thereof.The chart for manufacturing share of employment that gets a mention:have a great week ahead, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good evening, A new episode focusing on what worked and what didn’t work in the first quarter of 2025. We talked about the index performances as well as what to expect in 2Q25. This is the list we used. And here’s the link to the Battery piece: Have a great week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, It seemed appropriate to address some of the themes we discussed in the Weekend notes. Next big theme is Robotics - very excited for that, do join in if you share our excitement. Serious about Asia investing? Your process needs more Panda. We full appreciate that for some this is not enough and you’d like a more personalised service that will help get results in China and Asia. Fret not, instead see what we offer here, and connect with us today or message us directly.I do hope this helps to explain what we’re thinking about here looking out to 2Q25 and beyond. Have a great week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, This week’s episode is short, but to the point. We’re addressing the issues that have been raised about the Consumption Action Plan.Please read the main post on the subject. Have a great one, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, As is customary a Monday evening musing on the events that are moving the China markets. The full preview can be found here. Check out the China Internet Write ups here:* Alibaba* Baidu* Tencent Do join us for more!Also, here is the Xi, the champion of businesses article: http://www.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/20250303/0b05c2ae25754afb99f905dbe948f88b/c.html (do use the translation button if you, like me, are linguistically disadvantaged) Have a great week ahead, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, This is the final piece of content (sorry) to do with $BABA for the foreseeable future, and it felt important to get out a final verdict on it, especially in the context of today’s negative move in the price. Here’s the original piece if you’ve missed it:As usual I encourage everyone to subscribe to the full version of the blog. To be clear the presentation is made available for the premium subscribers only. Do reach out if you want it. That’s all from me, have a great week ahead!Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good evening, here are the pictures mentioned: (a) the one on Short interest courtesy of SubuTrade (b) the seating plan courtesy of Hutong ResearchAs usual, if the topics discussed are of interest to you, do consider subscribing. Have a great week ahead, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, the BYD video I referenced is available at It is available in three levels:• Level C for BYD cars (simpler)• Level B for Denza, Leopard, and BYD flagship cars (medium)• Level A for Yangwang (top level)The level is not assigned based on rank; more expensive cars have more advanced autopilot equipment.In the video, the U9 demonstrates Level A.The BYD Chairman stated that they have the largest automotive cloud database in China.He also mentioned that over the next 3 years, intelligent driving will become an indispensable option when purchasing a car.have a good one, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Good Evening, The pieces mentioned: Have a Great Week ahead, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

We are talking about DeepSeek and fallout from it, not a lot of structure other than that. The coal piece is here. And once again - happy Chinese New Year to those celebrating!The related promotion of -28.8% for life Is not up and running - no need to do anything it will be applied automatically. Have a goo week and we will return with the Solar/Wind piece later in the week, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Trump 2.0: The Two Whatevers* Whatever the US does is constrained by debt interest payments.* The growing burden of servicing national debt limits fiscal flexibility. This means any policy decisions will be heavily influenced by financial constraints, including rising interest rates and ballooning liabilities.* Whatever the US does must weaken the USD and lead to higher inflation amid lower rates.* A weaker dollar and inflation are part of the necessary adjustments to manage the economic exit strategy. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, but they also contribute to inflationary pressures, which could soften the blow of these transitions.Xi in 2025: The Two Whatevers* Whatever China does, its biggest undeveloped resource is its domestic market.* China’s future growth lies in tapping into its vast internal consumer base. Efforts to stimulate domestic consumption and reduce reliance on exports will be key to its economic evolution.* Whatever China does, all paths lead to stimulus.* Economic growth will require increased government spending and targeted stimulus efforts. This could include infrastructure investments, incentives for innovation, and measures to boost consumer spending.The IntersectionAt the intersection of these strategies, we see:* China’s currency rising and its trade surplus falling.* As China’s economy shifts toward domestic growth and stimulus, its currency will likely strengthen, reducing its reliance on trade surpluses.* A weaker USD and falling trade deficits in the US.* The US will face downward pressure on the dollar as it adjusts its economic policies to address debt and inflationary challenges.While these trajectories suggest potential cooperation, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Both sides aim for a win-win outcome, but obstacles and setbacks are inevitable.Case Study: The Chip Ban* Costs for the US: The decision to ban chip technology transfers has spurred competition. In the long run, this could lead to the emergence of alternative tech ecosystems, possibly with unique advantages. However, this outcome is uncertain and will take time to materialize.* Benefits for the US: Currently, Chinese semiconductor capabilities lag behind. The ban gives the US a temporary advantage by slowing China’s progress in advanced tech.* The Dilemma: The immediate effects of the chip ban are clear, but the long-term implications are not. This gamble reflects the challenge of balancing short-term gains with uncertain future outcomes.Broader Implications: The Matrix of Whatever* Both nations face temptations to prioritize immediate benefits (“cheat” the system) over long-term goals. Yet, the structural forces—debt constraints, domestic market potential, and global competition—are too powerful to ignore.* The challenge lies in navigating these complex dynamics without losing sight of the bigger picture. If managed well, these pressures could align to create opportunities for mutual benefit, even amid competition. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Unfortunately the live form NY episode was lost to history due to poor audio, so I re-recorded some of it, as well as provided and update on the Substack plans for the foreseeable future. Some Shots from the trip, to make up for the loss. Do use the comments to leave preferences for the industry focus pre-NPC, and dont forget to subscribe to do so. Regards, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

Addressing the development that sent TCEHY US down 10% at one point. The oil and Gas episode to be recorded in the US on Friday. Have a good day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe

This is an episode addressing some of the questions on the 2025 outlook, see the links below. Do subscribe to the full version of the blog for all the posts and ideas. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe