The Ag Commodity Corner+

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#Trump #Xi #trade #Phase2 #bullish #AG #Beijing #great #breakout #KCwheat #canola #weather #SPX #funds #Iran #fertilizer #diesel #global #grain #UAE #OPEC #CFTC #farmbill #E15 #April #winners #losers  The countdown to the Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing is on- it happens in mid-May & Trump says trip to China will be “great”! New technical breakout in KC wheat and canola futures. May weather forecast remains cool/wet for U.S. east but dry out west. S&P 500 surged +14% in April to new record highs! Funds now worried about a prolonged war with Iran and higher fertilizer/diesel prices for longer impacting global grain production. UAE leaving OPEC on May 1 while OPEC + looking to increase output again. U.S. farm bill passes after 5 long years! E15 + top winners and losers in April + CFTC and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#HRW #wheat #drought #rain #frost #CFTC #NOAA #2022 #USDA #cropprogress #rumors #China #soybeans #PNW #weather #Midwest #CanadianPrairies #Brazil #corn #dry #Kalshi #commodity #Trump #blockade #Isreal #Lebanon NOAA reported that U.S. HRW wheat was 70% in a drought ties the 2022 drought! USDA crop progress reported 47% of the HRW wheat in poor/very poor. The weather forecast looks wet and cool for the U.S. Midwest with snow for the Canadian Prairies. Central Brazil Safrinha corn crop looks dry for the next 2-weeks. Rumors that China was looking to but old crop U.S. soybeans out of the PNW. Kalsi (betting platform) has entered the commodity space with bets of where corn futures will be in the future. Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, but blockade remains while the ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon was extended by 3 weeks + CFTC.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crudeoil #stocks #straitofhormuz #farmbureau #fertilizer #KCwheat #drought #USPlains #USDA #cropprogress #bitcoin #Iran #canola #cattleonfeed #CFTC WTI crude oil drops $12 as Strait of Hormuz reopens temporarily. Stocks higher, U.S. $ Index lower.Farm Bureau fertilizer survey = farmers waiting too long to book fertilizer.KC wheat futures new contract highs as drought expands. USDA crop progress shows KC wheat conditions at 45% poor/very poor! 14-day U.S. weather forecast remains dry for U.S. Plains/SE but wet for Midwest & cooler by end of the month.Bitcoin resilient despite the war in Iran + canola margins at record highs.Cattle of Feed Report and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #12Hour #ceasefire #USDA #dud #planting #season #HRW #wheat #rain #livecattle #footandmouth #China #pork #exports #CFTC #April #Hormuz  A 2-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasted 12 hours. The USDA April crop report was a dud. The 2026 planting season does not look early. U.S. HRW wheat country needs a lot more rain. Live cattle traded to new record highs! Foot & Mouth disease in China, U.S. pork exports +2% + CFTC update and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #surprise #wheat #sunflower #cotton #crudeoil #urea ##April Midwest #Plains #CornBelt #wheat #cropprogress #funds #soyoil #oilseed #grain #HappyEaster USDA provided a bullish surprise with lower wheat acres, but what does higher sunflower acres suggest? WTI crude oil futures soared 13% while U.S. Gulf urea prices also traded higher. The U.S. Midwest looks wet to start the month of April while the South/Southeast and Western Corn Belt (Plains) remains dry. The national U.S. wheat ratings in the 1st USDA crop progress of the season next week will look ugly. Funds are record long soy oil futures, and the oil complex and near a record long in the grain and oilseed complex.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #acreage #shock #surprise #RVO #CFTC #biofuel #E15 #war #Iran#Trump #Xi #China #hogs #pigs #friendly #bullish Next week's USDA reports (acreage/stocks) could be a surprise/market moving. RVO’s (new blending biofuel requirements) were as expected with no big surprises and already baked into futures. E15 summer waiver just simply good optics. Markets are skeptical that the war in Iran ends soon with no diplomatic off ramp. The Trump/Xi meeting in China now May 14 – 15. March 1 USDA hogs and Pigs report was friendly/bullish + CFTC and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crudeoil #higher #longer #stagflation #slower #economic #growth #inflation #Trump #Xi #April #Ag #Appreciation #Paris #Chinese #dry #weather #CFTC #winterwheat #wildfires #funds #metals #ag #energy Fears are starting to grow that higher crude oil futures for longer could see slower economic growth and higher inflation BUT…. At a meeting in Paris, the Chinese team said they would be willing to buy more non-U.S. soybean row crops???? Trump’s delay with the Xi meeting (pushed out to end of April) was replaced with the Ag Appreciation Day” on March 27th, 2026. A dry weather pattern for the Central Plains/U.S. winter wheat country causing are wildfires in NE and breaking record temps for March. Stocks are officially in a correction as funds continue to sell the metals to buy energy and ag + more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#goldrush #grain #markets #CFTC #inflation #2022 #repeat #corn #policy #StraitofHormuz #military #demand #crudeoil #ag #commodities #undervalued #basket #USDA #dud #China #Brazil #Russia #CPI #diesel #fertilizer #urea Could this be the beginning of the return of higher inflation and a repeat of 2022 when corn traded to a high of $8.27/bu? Policy will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz military can if not we need to destroy demand and send crude oil futures much higher! The ag commodities remain undervalued vs. other commodities with the basket up +4.9%. USDA March Crop report a dud, and inflation will be higher in the coming months + more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#Iran #war #Trump #MiddleEast #funds #CFTC #trend #friend #grains #energy #metals #spooked #Ukraine #Russia #Hormuz #crudeoil #nauturalgas #fertilizer #grains #USdrought #Brazil #beef #China #MiddleEast Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#funds #long #grain #oilseed #2025 #bullish #CFTC #managedmoney #bull #AI #rotation #tech #ag #commodities #king #wallstreet #Trump #tariff #FDN #crude #weather  The funds (managed money) crowd/spec are now net long the grain complex!  The AI King Nvidia reported 4th quarter earnings that surpassed Wallstreet estimates but the stock falls? Trump retaliates against U.S. supreme court decision to impose an additional 15% global tariff. FDN (First Day Notice) and month end fund selling in March futures were absent in 2026. Crude oil futures adding more geo-politics, weather turns more active for March, plus South America weather and the latest CFTC report.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#fund #soybeans #supremecourt #Trump #tariffs #soyoil #demand #optimism #biofuel #WIN #BIG #USDA #AgOutlook #Forum #corn #wheat #wildfires #USPlains #drought #FDN #blues #Iran #crudeoil #CFTC Better technicals, hedge fund buying on hope of more Chinese and soy oil demand optimism from new U.S. biofuel policies in 2026 is a BIG WIN! Could the U.S. supreme courts ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs derail the Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans? USDA Ag Outlook Forum projections this week were friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat BUT……. Wildfires in the U.S. Plains another warning sign of a possible drought in 2026 + March First Day Notice blues and more.

*Apologies! In this week's podcast, where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408. Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#WIN #soybeans #trade #truce #extension #USDA #Xi #Trump #China #ethanol #45Z #phospahtes #fertilizer #corn #technical #wheat USDA took Trump's comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#Trump #USDA #Xi #farmers #gamechanger #foolsgold #China #soybeans #Bitcoin #digital #tech #Nasdaq #45Z #soyoil #Silver #gold #S&P500 #AI #canola #metals #energies #livestock #india #StatsCanada #ElNino #Enso #CFTC  Trump’s post this week that China would buy an additional 8 mmt of U.S. soybeans was a “game changer” near-term. The plunge in Bitcoin down 50% from the highs may no longer be considered a “digital” gold. It has followed the selling in tech this week with the NASDAQ down 7%.  The 45Z announcement provided more clarity and guidance resulting in higher soy oil futures. Next weeks USDA February crop report is historically a non-event and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crudeoil #Iran #silver #gold #metal #CFTC #Trump #nuclear #China #Russia #middleeast ##kalshi #E15 #Iowa #Australia #heatdome #Tonga Crude oil prices are spiking on concerns that Trump might attack Iran over their nuclear program and China/Russia vowed to protect Iran a large oil producer in the Middle East. Silver plunges 61.4% and gold carters by 19%! Kalshi markets was predicting a U.S. government shutdown again at 87.3% but it was averted last minute. Trump vowed to pass E15 in Iowa this week. Australia seeing a heat dome and record temps of 50 degrees Celsius while the Tonga volcano is erupting again in the Pacific Ocean.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P_dz6BaP4w&list=PLw_19gpIg9cQIGriCrrqlZkwr_Mo_5oqo#USDA #geopolitics #America #trade #Argentina #dry #Greenland #Brazil #weather #soybean #wheat #USDA #E15 #framework #MatoGrosso #livestock #cattle #Texas #drought #naturalgas #winterkill #cattleonfeed #CFTC Higher geo-politics from Trump wanting to annex Greenland to conflict with Iran has caused investors to sell everything America. With Mato Grosso Brazil 7% harvested weather has turned wet as harvest progresses but Argentina has turned dry! Both soybean and wheat futures have traded back above the pre-USDA January crop report close a positive technical chart signal. A monster weekly U.S. export report is price supportive but a kick the can down the road on E15 is very disappointing.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07Wat9ZrMo0&list=PLw_19gpIg9cQIGriCrrqlZkwr_Mo_5oqo#USDA #january #bearish #canada #china #tradedeal #corn #soybeans #wheat #silverbullet #E15 #biofuel #canola #EV #Iran #crudeoil #geopolitics #soybeanoil #silver #drought #CFTC #parabolic The USDA January crop report shocked the grain trade with a bearish report finding more bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat for 2025. But strong demand and talk of finalizing biofuel and adding E15 in Washington helped forge a low near-term in the grain markets. Canola futures traded higher on news that China and Canada reached a trade deal on canola/EV tariffs. China has finally bought their 12 mmt of U.S. soybean commitment now what? WTI crude oil fell after Trump decided not to attack Iran and silver remained parabolic.

#USDA #gift #farmers #venezulea #bearish #bullish #crudeoil #christmas#geopolitics #screworm #cattle #cftc #soybeans #corn Will the USDA provide a late Christmas “gift for farmers inthe final January USDA crop report on Monday?  The U.S. Venezuela attack is long-term bearish crude oil prices but bullish stocks as the Venezuela stock market was up awhopping 123%! But that is not quite as good as Warren Buffets record since 1964 +5 million %, 41 invested in 1964 is not worth $4 million!!! WOW!!!! The reopening of the border to Mexico to cattle could take some time. Stocks hit new recordhighs this week and it was a good start to the week with lost of green on the screen to end the week.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #corn #bushels #soybean #wheat #China #pork #Trump #demand #silver #gold#Argentina #CFTC Fund year-end, end of quarter and end of month selling has weighed on the grain markets. Will the USDA provide a gift in January and do seasonals kick in. Rumors that China was buying U.S. corn could add fuel to the fire.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #farm #aid #bearish #surprise #corn #bushels #soybean #wheat #corn #mexico #China #pork #Trump #demand #naturalgas #silver #debassement #dedollarization #technicals#funds #fed ##Powell #Argentina #CFTC The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026. Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork! USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026. Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020. The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration. After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days! Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term. Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling. The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027. After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture. The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived. The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-25 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #China #soybean #StatsCanada #Ontario #Quebec #canola #corn #wheat #Fed #commodities #Bitcoin #Mexico #screworm #beef ##cattle #hogs #Australia #Spain #ASF #Europe #pork #raubs #Brazil #CFTC #CanadianDollar #NaturalGas Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception? Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold. The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it? A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end. More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000. A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend. Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies. Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term. If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months! Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in. CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week. Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#bitcoin #Crypto #Gold #bull #stocks #investors #AI #USDA #soybeans #China #Brazil #corn #NVDA #phosphate #biofuel #beef #CFTC #funds #federalreserve Did the bears win Thanksgiving (although this week had green on the screen), and will the bulls get Christmas? Bears won thanksgiving thanks to a USDA Nov crop report dud that stalled the bullish grain momentum for a brief period. But a bullish lower yield surprise in the Dec crop report could reignite the rally. 2026 U.S. winter wheat planting is nearly complete at 97% while crop conditions improved by 3 points to 48% good-to-excellent. US corn & soybean harvest is complete. High corn demand, which is off the chart, and more Chinese soybean demand could support a Christmas rally.Nasdaq had it’s worst November since 2011. A U.S. Fed rate cut in December will help fund flow and sentiment.Bitcoin held a long-term support at 80,000 and that's positive for fund flow and sentiment. It should help stock prices and Ag as we go into December.Fertilizer prices continue to climb as we look ahead to 2026. Farmers may rely more on the nutrients that they already have in their soils.South American Weather remains critical as the soybean reproductive stage starts from late Nov to late Feb depending on planting date.Will a Russia-Ukraine peace deal happen by year-end?CFTC data as of showed more managed money fund sell-off as of October 14th.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #deleveraging #bearish #ugly #bull #weakness #stocks #investors #AI#USDA #soybeans #China #Brazil #corm #ethanol #crush #NVDA #Blackwell #GPU #phosphate #biofuel #beef #coffee#CFTC #funds The rapid decline in Bitcoin down 58% is resulting in a “risk off” sentiment and the deleveraging could see a break below support at $80,000 (a double top on the daily chart is bearish). The daily chart is ugly as is the weekly chart. Bitcoin has broken the long-term channel bull. The weakness has spilled over into stocks as investors sell high risk stocks like in the AI crowd as they worry that the growth rates are unsustainable. With the U.S. government reopen we did finally start seeing daily flash USDA sales of U.S. soybeans to China and our tracker has China at 15% of the 12 mmt by yearend. But this is more about politics/economics not who is more competitive the U.S. or Brazil. U.S. domestic corn, ethanol and soybean crush demand remains red hot! U.S. corn and wheat exports are the best in the past 10 years while U.S. soybean exports remain the worse in the last 10 years. The highly anticipated NVDA 3rd quarter earnings did not disappoint as revenues are accelerating with the new Blackwell chip. Demand is off the charts and NVDA GPU chips are sold out until the end of 2026. This does not include Chinese demand nor any new UAE sales. Investors remain concerned that this growth is unsustainable. This is till the beginning not the end not a mature industry. BIG PICTURE remains unchanged. There is a growing concern about Brazil’s soybean planting pace falling behind from irregular rains. Ther Trump administration lowered tariffs on MAP, DAP and potash a WIN for farmers, but we still need China a major phosphate exporter to release more supplies and lessen the pain moving forward. The Trump administration delaying the biofuel import credit cuts on biofuels will weigh on soyoil futures but may have also put in a near-term ceiling in soybeans as we need to constantly feed the bull. Trump promised to wage a war on high U.S. beef prices and finally removed the 40% tariffs on coffee and beef. The daily chart looks ugly on live and feeder cattle futures, but the weekly chart shows a correction in a long-term bull market. Today’s cattle of feed report reminded everyone that fundamentals remain very tight. The backward-looking CFTC (Commitment of Traders Report) showed the funds were still short the grain complex but after the rally in the ag commodities in futures in October we know that they have been buying. We estimate the funds are long soybean futures anywhere between 100,000 top 160,000 vs. record long 253,000 in 2012.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Rug #farmers #November #WASDE #bearish #Chinese #soybeans #corn #data #cattle #feeder #defensive #stocks #Trump #Argentina #Brazil #Switzerland #Ecuador #Guatemala #ElSalvador #beef #coffee #bananas #AI #AMD #NVDA #bubble #India #drought #Iran The highly anticipated USDA November crop report was one big disappointment after the longest USDA government shutdown at 43 days! The USDA noted that “Due to lapse in government funding from October 1 through November 12, some U.S. data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE.” It may never be available. What happened to the October plot data that was to be harvested where they weigh corn ears and soybean pods? The report was bearish vs. expectations, and we lost the short-term bullish technical momentum. We now have to buy more time. The USDA data dump on daily flash sales since 10-01-25 was no better showing very little Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans although we did have 3.3 mmt of corn bought not a surprise! Live and feeder cattle futures remained on the defensive again as headline news that Trump was going to do a trade deal and lower tariffs with Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador to try and reduce prices on U.S. beef, bananas and coffee. Stocks were also playing defensive by the end of the week on AI valuation concerns after hitting record highs early in the week with AMD at a financial analyst day forecasting a 1 trillion AI datacenter spend by 2030 up from $500 billion just a few years ago. Michael Burry famous for shorting stocks and picking on some AI names including NVDA and that the AI bubble was going to burst did not help investor AI sentiment. NVDA reports 3rd quarter earnings next Wednesday 11-19-25. Despite a bogus USDA report forecasting a NE corn yield at 191 unchanged, DTN was reporting more evidence that cloudy/humid conditions lowered solar radiation in NE resulting in corn yields down as much as 25%????The Trump administration announced a Switzerland trade framework and that India will buy more U.S. wheat not seen in 3 years. The drought in IRAN after 6 consecutive years is taking its toll and may force millions to evacuate!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #China #soybeans #ChatGPT #truce #Trump #November #corn #cattle #beef #stock #AI #NASDAQ #NVDA #bubbleAfter a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump? 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum. U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B. U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days. But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively. The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has. Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers. After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble. 75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk! It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #apec #Brazil #Mexico #screwworm #cattle #federalreserve #Canada #tariffs #Columbia #nvidia #nasdaq The market was hoping for a US-China trade deal, but we got a trade “truce” for now from the keenly awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit. China commits to minimum purchase commitments of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during the “current season” and a minimum of 25 MMT annually through 2028. U.S. Treasury Sec Bessent said other Asian countries have agreed to buy additional 19 MMT of US soybean. Soybean futures trading above $11 now- they normally tend to rally to $12. As expected, US Fed cuts interest rates by -0.25% again in October to 3.75%–4.00%. No further cuts promised for this year but trade looking out to the Dec FOMC. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25% but raised concern over trade war damage. Soy meal futures, remarkably, have had 14 consecutive higher close sessions. A bull market in soybeans is a bull market in soy meal! Cattle futures lower as funds unwind out of cattle for now due to Trump headlines and objective to lower beef prices. All major stock indices climb to new record highs. It was Mag 7 reporting week, which had mixed results. But we now have the first $5 trillion company in Nvidia!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #Busan #Brazil #Mexico #screwworm #cattle #russia #putin #Ukraine #AgWeb #AgTalk #DTN #CPI #Canada #tariffs #Columbia The U.S. has confirmed a meeting with Trump and Xi on October 30th, 2025, in Busan, South Korea. There have been rumors that China is buying soybeans from the PNW under the radar while the U.S. government is shutdown. Trump wants to import 4 times more Argentina beef to lower high sky U.S. beef prices has funds liquidating out of fear as Brazil and Trump are expected to meet in South Korea next week as well, and Mexico is meeting with the Trump team next week to try and reopen the border amid New World Screwworm. All 3 are weighing on live cattle/feeder futures. More geo-politics as Trump decided to sanction 2 large Russian oil producers as he remains frustrated with Putin over the war in Ukraine, which sent crude oil futures surging 9.3% for the week! There was more evidence from a AgWeb survey, DTN and AgTalk that the 2025 U.S. corn yield is coming in much lower than many are forecasting, now in the 167 – 177 bpa range. U.S. CPI in September slightly better than expected at 3.0% was enough to pave the way for another U.S. interest rate cut next week (2nd consecutive month) sent stocks markets to new record highs, as 85% of 3rd quarter earnings have thus far beat estimates ahead of the MAG 7 earnings to be released next week. Trump called of the U.S. Canada trade negotiations over a Reagan ad on anti-tariffs. They were expected to seal a deal in South Korea next week. New higher tariffs could be in the cards for Colombia as Trump calls the President a “drug lord.” Columbia bought 2% of U.S. exports in 2024. Heavy rain in North China is rotting corn harvest at 70%. It's only raining once a week in Central Brazil vs. every other day with 100-degree temps stressing soybean crops. The 2-week outlook thru Nov. 7 is concerning (a yellow flag) but its early.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #crudeoil #cattle #embargo #cookingoil #yield #Brazil #canada #canola #tariffs #EV #cattle #crudeoil #bitcoin The U.S./China trade war has escalated after Trump threatened to slap 100% Tariff on China by Nov. 1 after China placed some export restrictions on rare earth minerals. But Trump overstepped/overreacted but the meeting with Xi at the end of the month was still on even after Trump threatened China with an embargo on used cooking oil. The U.S./China were going to meet and talk about trade issues today ahead of the meeting with Xi/Trump in South Korea. Despite the increased tensions and noise both the corn and soybean futures held support at $4.10 and $10 with a corrective bounce higher on news that U.S. corn yields are a concern. U.S. soybean prices are $0.90 to $1.50 cheaper than Brazil. News that China was willing to remove the tariffs on Canada if Canada would lift the 100% levies on Chinese EV vehicles sent funds short covering in canola futures. Canadian and Chinese met on Friday to discuss ag issues like canola and meat. Stocks fell on the increased rise in tensions with the U.S./China and concerns over bad regional loans, but investors shake off the news on strong Q3 earnings from the big U.S. banks. Wheat continued to trade to new 5-year lows while cattle were breaking out to new record highs as Trump was working his magic on lower U.S. beef prices. U.S. crude oil continued its trend lower as did Bitcoin.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2flogged_in_user_area#usda #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #crudeoil #SouthKorea #debasement #gold #silver #wheat #fungicide #SouthernRust #Gaza #Isreal #Brazil #Lula #beef #drought #MidwestTrump cancels Xi meeting in South Korea at the end of the month as China has become hostile on rare earth minerals. We would not be surprised if Trump were to retaliate again with 145% tariff on China on the Nov. 10th pause deadline. China has pulled the rug under U.S. farmers again. It’s the 10th day with the U.S. government shut down what if it goes beyond 35 days and what if we do not get a Nov. 9 USDA crop report or the USDA slow walks lower yields in this report? The approved U.S. $12 - $13 billion for of U.S. farmers could also be delayed. It would help improve basis as they delay selling bushels. The “debasement” trade has become mainstream and popular with investors and a key reason why gold and silver continue to hit new fresh record highs. U.S. harvest could be 40% complete, 50% on soybeans and 60% on winter wheat Planting. In Ontario, 80% of the soybeans are harvested while corn is 1-2% harvested. Less wheat acres are being planted because the price sucks. South American is 9.15% planted on soybeans. The latest news on 2025 U.S. yields is that even if farmers applied 2 fungicide passes to protect against Southern Rust yields are still lower by 10-15 bpa. There were rumors this week that the narrowing in the soybean futures spreads and basis could be China buying U.S,. soybeans under the radar? A peace deal in Isreal/Gaza means lower crude oil futures as funds remove the geo-political risk premiums. A potential meeting between Brazil’s Lula and Trump could see the 50% tariff removed on beef imports and weigh on cattle futures down the road. The 2025 U.S. Midwest drought is very concerning as we end 2025.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2flogged_in_user_area#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #canola #crudeoil #stocks #AI #MFP #Sasktachewan #hogTrump's post about a meeting with XI in 4-weeks with the main topic of discussion the soybean trade was bullish offsetting a bearish USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that found 200 million more bushels of old crop 24/25 U.S. corn bushels. The U.S. government shutdown is just more noise, but it does mean no USDA October crop report next week delaying the 2025 U.S. yield forecast by a month. Stocks have traded to new record highs suggesting the shutdown will be short lived but instead continue to chase the AI story. Trump will announce next Tuesday support for U.S. farmers in the tune of $10 billion. In 2018 the U.S. soybean farmer got $1.65/bu in MFP payments and in 2019 $2.05/bu. WTI crude oil is breaking below a key support and pivot point at $61.74/barrel. 2025 December corn futures creating a head & shoulders bottom formation. With Chinese U.S. soybean purchases at 0 for the 25/26 marketing year the trade thinks the rest of the world is filling the gap but it’s worse than 2018! With no weekly U.S. export sales report due to a U.S. government shutdown U.S. corn exports were still estimated at record strong levels. The trade thinks that 2025 Canadian Prairies canola production is closer to 21 MMT and an average yield of 42 bpa but very large farmers in the garden spot of SE Saskatchewan are reporting below average yields and production to fall back to 19 mmt???

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2Flogged_in_user_area#USDA #China #corn #soybean #trade #interestrates #Mexico #Cattle #SouthAmerica #Argentina #inflation #hogs #gold #silver #trade #drought Argentina suspended agro-export taxes early this week, from 26%, to increase their US dollar reserves. It lasted for 3 days by which time Argentina raised $7 bil.This came at the wrong time as the US & China are working towards agreeing to a trade deal. Cheap soybean supply from Argentina works against that objective as China does not now need immediate US soybean supply. They reportedly scooped up 35 cargoes of Argentine soybeans. China's soybean reserves are said to be 6 MMT.The US also reportedly has agreed to provide financial aid to Argentina. US corn YTD export sales for 25/26 at record highs, with no Chinese business.Drought in the US Midwest remains in place & near-term weather outlook remains dry, leading to a dry crop finish. "Safe Haven" commodity trade momentum picks up as gold goes to record high territory due to economic uncertainty, trade wars, and expectations another US Fed rate cut.Headline news that India is looking to buy more US crude oil and work towards a US-India trade deal. US tariffs are now at 50%.USDA Sept. Hogs & Pigs report shows more contraction rather than expansion- supportive for hog futures.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2Flogged_in_user_area#USDA #China #corn #soybean #trade #Canada #interestrates #Mexico #Ukraine #Russia #Taiwan #Apec #SouthKorea #USMCA #StatsCanada #Cattleonfeed #SouthAmerica #butterTrump/Xi had a productive call today on trade, fentanyl, an end to the Ukraine/Russia war and TikTok but it looks like Chinese tariffs will have to be extended for an additional 90-days to mid-February of 2026 as Trump may not visit China until early 2026 and Xi will make a U.S. visit thereafter. They will still meet at the APEC summit in South Korea, but it does not look like a trade deal by than. It looks like the farmers will have a winter without China buying U.S. soybeans and will have to wait until 2026? The short-term momentum has turned bearish as we need to buy more time and soybean futures break back below all moving averages. U.S. and Canada lowered interest rates this week with Canada’s 8th cut down to 2.5% while the U.S. Fed lowered interest rates for the first time in 9 months. Mexico and Canada are working closely together on trade ahead of the negotiations on USMCA review in 2026. The Canadian economy remains weak, so more cuts are most likely in the cards, and the U.S. Fed said 2 more cuts in 2025 and 1 in 2026. Do not fight the Fed or the tape!A U.S. framework trade deal with Taiwan was announced with $10 billion ag purchases over 4 years but this is lower than their 2024 purchases. 2025 U.S. crop yields keep coming in lower than last year so that begs the question whether yields come in lower than last year's yields at 179.3 and 50.7 bpa. We will know more in the USDA Oct. 9th crop report. Stats Canada provided a model-based August production update projecting higher wheat and canola crops as farmers are seeing better than expected yields with more than 50% of the harvest complete. It remains dry in the ECB/South into the end of October in the long-term forecasts. The winter 3-month forecast is wet in the U.S. Midwest but dry in the south a typically La Nina forecast. South American expected to get rain this coming week that could increase the soybean planting pace. U.S. butter prices fall 38% to a 2021 low as excess supplies weigh on prices.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: Home | Farms.com Risk Management#USDA #corn #soybean #wheat #China #NorthDakota #testweight #moisture #Bismarck #SouthDakota #AgRural#Brazil #SouthAmerica #ECB #Flash #drought #cattle The USDA surprised with higher U.S. corn acres than expected but both 25/26 corn and soybean ending stocks were not that much removed from last months forecast with slightly lower yields. The North Dakota farmer fears the triple 40’s – 40% moisture, 40-pound test weight and 40 bpa! The last time was 2005 and this past weekend both corn and soybeans got smoked in far western North Dakota near Bismarck and northern parts of South Dakota. USDA crop progress reports showing IA corn at 80% G-E and WS at 82% G-E is overstating the crops condition. Farmers harvested soybeans in ECB on Sept. 9th at 16% moisture. Illinois and Indiana had record nighttime temps in 2025. AgRural is forecasting a record 180.92 mmt crop for Brazil in 2026 a 5.3% jump to 6.6 billion bushels! South America looks dry though mid October forecasting no early monsoons? And so does the U.S. ECB as the “flash” drought turns 90-days long! Some more good news for canola as on headline news that a meeting with Canadian and Chinese officials as constructive and could lead to a pragmatic solution. Plus, a U.S. delegation in China this past week may lead to a meeting with Trump/Zi in Mid-November at the Apec Summit and result in a trade deal. Cattle futures plunged this past Tuesday, but a correction was needed as the funds overshot the mark short-term.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2Flogged_in_user_area#USDA #China #Japan #tariffs #canola #Trump #Blackswan #corn #soybeans #Southernrust #tarspot #89yeardrought #fungicide #Iowa #frost #ears #pods #brookerollins #goldenage #Arkansas #biofuel #canola $8 billion trade deal with Japan to but U.S. corn, soybeans and ethanol was a WIN for farmers. The U.S. courts ruling that made Trumps reciprocal tariffs illegal is a short-term set back for future investments and trade deals? Southern rust in Iowa is so severe that it has covered 60-70% of the corn real estate leaving very little room for tarpot! 84% of the Iowa corn crop is still good-excellent, 3% poor – very poor? If U.S. farmers did not apply fungicide only 20% because of low grain prices and took a risk, we have a problem, Houston! Is this the start of the 89-year drought cycle that was delayed by a year? The lows are in for corn. History often repeats but not necessarily rhyme. OPEC+ is looking to unwind a 1.65 million barrel per day voluntary cut at Sundays next meeting bearish WTI crude oil as the summer driving season comes to an end.Frost is early in 2025 and a concern, but it will not kill the growing season.Next Friday's USDA crop report is about record ears and pods so we would not be surprised to see 190 and 54 bpa in the U.S. corn and soybean crops respectively. U.S. cotton/rice farmers are struggling with 1/3 looking to go out of business as Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the “Golden Age” is coming. Canadian government unveils new measures to help Canadian prairies canola growers with a $370 million biofuel production incentive. Soy oil futures closed the gap up from June of 25 now we can resume the uptrend.

#ONYield25 #USDA #Drought #FlashDrought #Southernrust #tarspot #China #traiffs #canola #Trump #disease #corn #soybeans #StasCanada #wheat #Quebec #funds A dry August and a “flash drought” in the ECB (Eastern Corn Belt) the driest top 10 to 15 years in 150 to 160 years (Ohio the driest in 133 years) plus disease is taking a bite out of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops. It's going to be an early harvest. This could be the start of the 89-year drought cycle that may have been delayed until 2026 as La Nina maybe returning. The USDA September crop report is all about record corn ears and record soybean counts but the October USDA crop report will be about pod and ear weights. Stats Canada reported higher forecasts for the 2025 Canadian Prairies all wheat and canola crops vs. last year based on satellite imagery but are they overestimating production?The 2025 Great ON Yield Tour and Quebec crop tours are projecting corn and soybean crops below the 10-year average. China's Vice Commerce Ministry Li Chenggang visits Washington this week as we continue to connect the dots is a positive sign towards a China/U.S. trade deal. But will U.S. farmers have a winter without China as they buy more soybeans from Uruguay/Argentina? U.S. Northern Plain soybean farmers are seeing red with flat prices at $8.97/bu! U.S. corn exports on record pace up 99% vs. last year. Fund short covering continues in corn futures bottom is in!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...Ontario farmers, don't forget to join our 2025 Great ON Yield Tour: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/even...#ONYield25, #USDA, #China, #Phase2, #traiffs, #canola, #Trump #Ontario #corn #soybeans #PRRS #hogs #soyoil #ProFarmerIf we read between the lines and connect the dots Trump may have a Phase 2 trade deal in his back pocket. 2025 Pro Framer crop tour results and 2025 Great Ontario Yield Tour drought. EPA announcement on lower biofuel waivers is bullish demand, RIN prices and soy oil futures. Talk of a U.S. interest rate cut in September will add more fuel to the fire in stocks. Scott Moe will visit China next week but the Feds need in on the action to remove Chinese tariffs on canola. The finish looks poor and dry for crops.USDA acknowledged a PRS problem in U.S. hogs. The EU/US trade deal included another investment in the U.S. U.S. corn demand is off the charts and Ontario old crop 24/25 basis also on fire!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?returnurl=%2Flogged_in_user_areaOntario farmers, don't forget to join us for one of our final events of the 2025 Great ON Yield Tour: 2025 Great Ontario Yield Tour | Farms.com Risk ManagementMoe & Henry discuss the latest observations form the tour in this video: Ontario Yield Tour Highlights Mixed Crop Conditions | Farms.com#ONYield25 #USDA #Southernrust #wildfires #China #tariffs #canola #Russia #Trump #Ukraine #Ontario #corn #soybeansUSDA August crop report shocked with higher U.S. crop yields and big changes in acres, but will diseases like Southern Rust in corn especially in Iowa take away? If Trump gave China the AI chips it wanted, does China finally step in to buy U.S. soybeans and does Trump have a Phase 2 trade deal in his pocket for the Apec Summit when he meets Xi at the end of October? Soybean futures rallied 68 cents the pendulum is swinging back to the upside as heat could shave the soybean yield for the 2nd half of August. Midway through the 2025 10th Annual Great ON Yield Tour, we have a problem as Central Ontario is a train wreck from a severe drought. 75% of the 700 wildfires in Canada remain out of control plus Canadian Prairie farmers took another one for the team as China slaps a 75.8% tariff on canola just in time for the 2025 harvest. Western Canadian rains too late for most. U.S. pork cutout values remain resilient.Does Trump have a Ukraine/Russian peace deal in his back pocket in Alaska?

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...Ontario farmers, don't forget to join our 2025 Great ON Yield Tour: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/even...USDA August crop reports could surprise next week.It was plenty wet for the U.S. Midwest from May – July with Iowa receiving 200% of normal precip in July so is too much rain too much of a good thing? Another Derecho hit Eastern Montana, ND and Western Minnesota this week. Trump and Putin are expected top meet but an end to the Ukraine/Russian war could increase production/competition long-term. Did corn futures hit a bottom yet and when will the funds stop ignoring the strong corn demand? OPEC decide to unwind all of the production cut from 2-years ago and are now contemplating whether to unwind the 1.6-million-barrel member voluntary cut. #corn #soybeans #canola #pollination #tariffs #Trump #farming, #marketnews, #trending, #commodities, #commoditymarket, #tariffs, #wheat, #internationaltrade #tradewar #canada #trump #weather #cattle

#corn #soybeans #canola #rapidgrowthsyndrome #pollination #tariffs #Japan #AAFC #NorthDakota #springwheat #Bangadesh #tarspot #southernrust #heatdomeThe U.S. corn pollination issue has legs as it continues to expand across 13+ states. More talk/concerns over disease such as tar spot/southern rust and the top end of the U.S. corn yield may have been lost. The “heat dome” from last week was a bust with long-term forecast cool/wet. 2 more U.S. trade deals (frameworks) were signed (6 total) with Bangladesh and Japan. The U.S. Quality Council tour in North Dakota projecting a 49 bpa in spring wheat crop vs. USDA at 59.AAFC lowered the 25/26 canola ending stocks to 1.1 as exports fall 37%. Google is spending more money on AI in 25 and 2026.

A high-pressure ridge “Heat Dome” is forecast for mid next week over the heart of the U.S. corn Belt, U.S. corn pollination issues from early April planted corn and high nighttime temps from the last 30 days. More rain is forecast for the Canadian Prairies over the next 2-weeks from 1-3 inches. Trump announced 30% tariffs 2 of the U.S. largest U.S. trading partners the EU and Mexico effective August 1. Soyoil futures break out above resistance at $55 while corn futures put in areversal higher. Trump was looking to fire Powell; U.S. passed the first crypto legislation this week and the removal of high corn fructose syrup in Coke.#Heat #HeatDome #corn #soybeans #canola #highpressureridge #Powell #pollination#tariffs #EU #Mexico #Coke

StoneX projects a monster U.S. 2025 corn yield at 186.9 bpa, while the USDA provided no big surprises in the July crop report. A lack of U.S. trade deals/ag purchase agreements after 3-months but rather an escalation/threat in tariffs with 30% to Japan, 25% on South Korea, 35% for Canada and 50% for Brazil/copper is weighing on fund ag sentiment. Regardless, funds after 3 years continue to chase and pile into Bitcoin ETF’s and the AI trade with NVDA both at new all time record highs and NVDA hitting the $4 trillion market cap first. U.S. weather remains non-threatening for July and dry areas of Northern Illinois are getting rain. Western Canada is expected to get periodic rains every 3-4 days with no excessive heat, but farmers are complaining that the rain chances very seldom materialize. U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle closes again to screwworm and should remain closed but this combined with new U.S. tariffs for Brazil means less supplies and a continuation of the bull market in cattle. #farming, #marketnews, #trending, #commodities, #commoditymarket, #tariffs, #CORN, #soybean, #canola, #wheat, #internationaltrade #tradewar #tariffs #Iran #Israel #canada #trump #weather #biofuel #china #cattle #bitcoin #nvidia