The Politics Guys

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution, exploring the limitations it places on states and the historical context behind these provisions. Key topics covered include Limits on state powers in treaties, currency, and military Historical context of Article 1, Section 10 The Contracts Clause and property rights Case studies: Dartmouth College and Minnesota Mortgage Federalism and the role of Congress versus states ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike talks about the Explain Like I'm 5 podcast. I hope you will enjoy this excellent show as much as we do.

Mike, Trey, and Terry open this supporters' exclusive midweek episode with Trump’s planned troop drawdown from Germany and what it says about America’s shifting posture toward Europe. Terry argues the 5,000-troop reduction itself is not strategically decisive, but looks more like retaliation than planning. Trey sees it as part of a broader Trump effort to demote NATO and reorder U.S. alliances, while Mike worries that America may be giving up a relatively inexpensive source of leverage, deterrence, and global reach. Next, they turn to the Senate reconciliation package, the parliamentarian’s limits on what can be included, and the huge increase in funding for immigration enforcement. Trey explains why reconciliation has become central in a Senate where ordinary legislating is increasingly blocked by the filibuster. Mike focuses on the institutional damage of Congress pre-funding executive priorities for years at a time, while Terry argues that although the congressional abdication is real, Trump is delivering the immigration crackdown he openly campaigned on. After that, the guys discuss Florida’s new congressional map and the escalating national gerrymandering war. Trey lays out how DeSantis is trying to maximize Republican seats while framing the map as race-neutral after the Callais decision. Mike argues that Florida’s Fair Districts Amendment should make this kind of map legally vulnerable, though he suspects the state supreme court may find a way to uphold it. Terry emphasizes that both parties are abandoning anti-gerrymandering principles when power is at stake, while also warning that Republicans may be overreading recent Hispanic voting trends. They close with Republican efforts to flip John Fetterman and what his alienation from Democrats means for the Senate. Terry thinks Fetterman has little reason to switch parties now and give up leverage. Trey notes that Fetterman still votes with Democrats most of the time and argues that party activists now treat even modest dissent as betrayal. Mike sees Fetterman as politically stranded: far too liberal to be a real Republican, too estranged from Democrats to be effective, and likely headed for a very difficult 2028 primary. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Trey, and guest host Terry Casey, a political scientist at the Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, open with the still-unresolved U.S. conflict with Iran, the closed Strait of Hormuz, and the Trump administration’s attempt to frame military pressure and uncertain negotiations as progress. Trey argues that the administration still lacks a clear win condition and may be trying to avoid admitting failure. Terry counters that a U.S. win is possible, but only at costs Trump may not be willing to pay. Mike suggests Iran may be playing for time, betting that Trump’s fear of midterm damage and rising gas prices will push him toward a face-saving retreat. Next, the guys turn to this week’s elections, including Trump-backed primary challenges in Indiana, a Democratic special-election win in Michigan, and turnout signals in Ohio. Trey sees Trump’s successful targeting of dissenting Republicans as evidence of his continuing grip on the GOP, while warning that special elections are imperfect predictors of November. Mike argues that the Indiana results may show the power of massive money in low-turnout races more than Trump’s personal power alone. Terry adds a ground-level view from Indiana, where one anti-Trump-targeted incumbent survived by emphasizing local politics against a challenger whose entire message was Trump’s endorsement. After that, the guys examine the Fifth Circuit’s order restricting access to mifepristone, Justice Alito’s temporary administrative stay, and the broader clash over abortion, FDA authority, standing, and state power. Trey thinks the Supreme Court will likely look for a procedural way to avoid a sweeping merits ruling, while worrying that post-Dobbs litigation keeps compounding the loss of individual liberty. Terry presses the harder federalism question: if states can ban abortion, why can’t they block abortion drugs from being shipped into the state? Mike argues that the standing issue is not a mere technicality, because accepting Louisiana’s theory could dramatically expand state challenges to federal regulation. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Justin, and Kirby open this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode with the fight over DHS funding, where a bipartisan deal appears to keep most of the department funded while leaving ICE and Border Patrol outside the agreement for now. Mike argues that Democrats didn’t get the statutory limits on raids, masks, and body cameras they wanted, but may still have forced some moderation in enforcement tactics after Minneapolis. Justin sees the deal as a likely temporary fix and argues that the bad optics of aggressive enforcement gave Democrats more room to hold out. Kirby thinks the shutdown exposed poor strategic thinking on both sides, with Republicans taking an issue where they had an advantage and damaging themselves through overreach. Next, the guys turn to the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey over his Instagram post showing seashells spelling out “8647.” Mike argues that the indictment is legally thin because true-threat doctrine requires evidence that Comey intended, or at least recklessly disregarded, that the message would be understood as a threat. Kirby sees the case as unserious on the merits but serious as a signal that the Trump DOJ is using process itself as punishment. Justin agrees that the case is unlikely to lead to conviction and argues that Republicans are trying to redefine ordinary political language while ignoring far more aggressive rhetoric from Trump and his allies. After that, the discussion broadens to whether Trump’s choices are weakening the MAGA coalition and damaging the Republican brand heading into the midterms and beyond. Mike points to Trump’s poor approval numbers, economic dissatisfaction, the Iran war, and the failure of some GOP structural advantages to materialize as signs that Republicans may be heading into serious trouble. Kirby argues that Trump still owns the party, but a major midterm loss could open the fight between MAGA and post-MAGA Republicans over the party’s future. Justin thinks Trump’s biggest problem is his habit of promising transformation and then delivering something closer to continuity, especially on the economy, while also noting that post-Trump Republican policy may not change as much as Trump’s critics hope. Listen to Kirby’s Inside Political Science podcast here. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast  Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the Fantasy President presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Justin, and special guest Kirby Goidel, a professor of political science at Texas A&M, open with the Supreme Court’s latest Voting Rights Act decision and what it means for racial representation, partisan gerrymandering, and the future of congressional redistricting. Justin argues that the ruling effectively makes racial vote-dilution claims nearly impossible to prove, especially when courts allow states to hide behind partisan explanations. Kirby pushes past the immediate partisan implications, suggesting that while the decision may hurt descriptive representation, its long-term effects on substantive representation are harder to predict. Mike is more sympathetic to the Court’s reasoning than expected, arguing that once race and party become highly correlated, Section 2 enforcement can begin to look like court-ordered Democratic gerrymandering. Next, the guys turn to the latest alleged assassination attempt against President Trump, the security response, the immediate political spin, and the administration’s argument that it strengthens the case for a new White House ballroom. Mike argues that the security system largely worked, while calling the ballroom justification legally and politically opportunistic. Justin focuses on the rise of lone-wolf political violence and the broader collapse of trust that makes conspiracy thinking almost automatic after events like this. Kirby emphasizes how quickly both parties convert crises into talking points and argues that political violence today is serious but should not be exaggerated beyond historical context. They close with the war against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the War Powers Resolution deadline, and whether Congress still has any meaningful role in authorizing sustained military conflict. Kirby argues that Congress has effectively surrendered much of its war-making authority and is unlikely to reclaim it unless the war becomes politically unbearable. Justin sees the conflict as strategically underdefined and politically dangerous for Republicans, especially if it fractures the MAGA coalition or keeps driving up fuel prices. Mike argues that Iran may actually have the stronger position over time, because Trump’s demand for something close to unconditional surrender is not a real negotiation strategy and may collide with public anger over the war’s economic costs. You can listen to Kirby’s Inside Political Science podcast here. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast  Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the Fantasy President presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Next, the guys turn to the latest alleged assassination attempt against President Trump, the security response, the immediate political spin, and the administration’s argument that it strengthens the case for a new White House ballroom. Mike argues that the security system largely worked, while calling the ballroom justification legally and politically opportunistic. Justin focuses on the rise of lone-wolf political violence and the broader collapse of trust that makes conspiracy thinking almost automatic after events like this. Kirby emphasizes how quickly both parties convert crises into talking points and argues that political violence today is serious but should not be exaggerated beyond historical context. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike is joined by special guest Corey Nathan, creator and host of the Talkin’ Politics & Religion Without Killin‘ Each Other podcast. They discuss why the coming midterm elections are likely to leave most Americans dissatisfied, even under optimistic partisan scenarios, arguing that while Democrats may plausibly retake the House and even have an outside shot at the Senate, structural realities—uncompetitive districts, polarized primaries, fundraising incentives, and institutional constraints like the filibuster—limit the likelihood of meaningful change; Corey emphasizes concerns about election integrity and democratic norms, along with a desire for accountability and constitutional order, while also expressing cautious optimism about independent-minded legislators and cross-partisan cooperation emerging at state and local levels, whereas Mike stresses deeper systemic forces that reward conflict, discourage reform, and make Congress resistant to change; together they explore possible but unlikely paths to less disappointing outcomes—from weakening the filibuster to institutional reforms—while ultimately converging on a modest, process-oriented hope that incremental progress, civic engagement, and good-faith dialogue may be the most realistic way forward in a system structurally biased toward frustration.  Check out Talkin’ Politics & Religion Without Killin’ Each Other. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporter-exclusive midweek episode, Trey is joined by Justin, and begin their discussion of modern ideologies with a deep dive into Feminism. On this week’s show, Trey and Justin discuss: The different waves of Feminism  The evolution of Feminism from an early struggle for political recognition and personhood to a focus on social structures and intersectionality Fascism’s rejection of reason and its rejection of Enlightenment rationality. The radical vs. liberal divide in Feminism An examination of how contemporary feminism interacts with trans rights The expanding nature of who counts as a Feminist and its intersection with race, class, and gender The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a rare three-person show, Trey is joined by Justin and Mike. They start by looking at the United States’ standoff with Iran. The trio explores the strategic confusion of mission accomplished with the ongoing naval blockade. They also point to the not-well-publicized 30-day sanctions relief granted to Russia to mitigate global oil shortages. Next, they turn to Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The discussion covers the recent news of the ending of the 12-12 committee deadlock, along with a bit of disagreement over how much latitude Warsh has from President Trump. Mike and Trey agree there are positive aspects to Warsh’s positions while Justin is more hesitant, but Trey is worried Warsh was not willing to call out the winner of the 2020 election. After that, they move to the Southern Poverty Law Center and the groups’ alleged shell companies to fund informants. While those in MAGA see this as a way for SPLC to manufacture extremism, the guys agree that the bigger issue is with the way that SPLC has had mission creep and slowly expanded a more fully left-vision of hate. They close the show with a discussion on Virginia’s new voter-approved congressional map that could grant Democrats a 10-1 seat advantage in a state where roughly 46% of voters chose Donald Trump in 2024. Mike gets deep into the problematic misleading of the ballot language, and Justin discusses how redistricting plans in Texas might backfire in a wave election. Check out the ⁠Future of Our Former Democracy⁠ podcast  Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the ⁠Fantasy President⁠presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠ patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken explore Federalist Papers No. 9 and 10, focusing on the arguments for a large republic and the dangers of faction. Topics discussed include: The role of factions in democracy Montesquieu and the Anti-Federalist arguments for small republics Hamilton and Madison’s overview of the advantages of a large republic Madison's theory of interest checking interest Hamilton's deep dive into the history of Greece The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠X⁠⁠ ⁠Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers⁠ Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠ or⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Trey & Ken begin with Representative Eric Swalwell’s resignation from Congress and his suspended gubernatorial bid. Ken and Trey find themselves at odds over the institutional response. Ken argues that if Swalwell maintains his innocence, he should have stayed to fight the charges, suggesting his presence was a net positive for the Democratic caucus. Trey, however, contends that the resignation is a necessary consequence of his actions and that the party must prioritize moral clarity over political utility. Next, the pair turn to Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz party, conceding defeat to the Tisza party. The guys analyze the ripple effects of this election, particularly the role of Vice President JD Vance’s recent stumping for Orbán. Ken offers a provocative take: that the President used Vance’s Hungarian visit as a tactical maneuver to neutralize a VP who has been quietly skeptical of the ongoing war in Iran, at least behind the scenes. Then, the guys turn to the 10-day ceasefire now in place between Israel and Lebanon and the ongoing maritime landscape shift in response. While there are hopes for reopening the Strait to international commerce, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full effect. Trey and Ken examine the legal and strategic friction of maintaining an active blockade during a nominal ceasefire, along with the possibility of continued peace after the ceasefire period ends. They also discuss the close war powers vote that occurred in the House. Finally, they close in a moment of agreement. Both Trey and Ken argue that FISA Section 702, despite the President’s recent calls for renewal, has become incompatible with American civil liberties. They discuss why they believe the program, plagued by a history of abuse and the potential for future overreach, belongs in the dustbin of history. Check out the ⁠Future of Our Former Democracy⁠ podcast  Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the ⁠Fantasy President⁠ presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠ patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode, Mike and Michael examine political behavior through coalition dynamics rather than broad public opinion, using Fenno’s framework of multiple constituencies to show why smaller, more engaged groups—especially base voters, donors, and close advisors—often exert disproportionate influence. The discussion explores how electoral incentives like primaries, safe seats, turnout differences, and the Electoral College push politicians toward electoral efficiency, targeting the voters and funders who matter most rather than maximizing overall support. It also analyzes complications such as misjudging coalition strength, managing internal divisions, the growing role of out-of-district money, and the tension between acting as a delegate versus a trustee, concluding with the importance of negative partisanship and offering a simple heuristic: political choices are largely driven by who politicians need to keep satisfied to win and maintain power. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Jay open with the Iran conflict, debating whether the U.S.-Israel war achieved meaningful strategic gains or left America in a weaker position. Mike argues the ceasefire looks like a premature declaration of victory that strengthened Iran’s leverage, while Jay contends degrading Iran’s military and leadership are meaningful steps toward long-term goals like regime change or limiting its regional power. Next, they turn to the Trump administration’s rollback of transgender student protections, focusing on whether Title IX legally covers gender identity. Mike emphasizes that both statutory text and legislative history point clearly to biological sex, though he’s open to updating the law legislatively, while Jay agrees the prior interpretation was legally unsound but warns that aggressive federal enforcement against local districts risks overreach beyond core issues like sports. After that, the guys discuss recent elections in Wisconsin and Georgia and the broader pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections. Mike argues the results largely track historical midterm dynamics rather than signaling a historically large wave, while Jay cautions against overinterpreting low-turnout, high-spending special elections but agrees Republicans should view the trend as a warning sign. Finally, they close with the Justice Department’s claim that the Presidential Records Act is unconstitutional, raising deeper separation-of-powers questions. Mike suggests the law may improperly intrude on executive authority, especially given its record-creation requirements, while Jay agrees the executive can challenge such statutes but emphasizes the courts will ultimately decide, highlighting the tension between transparency norms and constitutional structure. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast  Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the Fantasy President presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporter-exclusive midweek episode, Trey is joined by Justin, and they conclude their exploration of the classic political ideologies with a deep dive into Fascism. On this week’s show, Trey and Justin discuss: Fascism’s rejection of reason and its rejection of Enlightenment rationality. The centrality of violence and struggle as an enduring premise of fascism. How fascism holds the past as idyllic goal that that will lead to greatness in response to a degenerate modernity. Fascism’s rejection of democracy with a specific focus on Carl Schmitt’s critique parliamentary democracy in which Schmitt argues that a singular leader can be more authentic to a peoples will than a process of voting. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this Good Friday edition of the Politics Guys, Trey is joined by Justin, and the duo dives into a chaotic week of personnel changes at the Justice Department and Pentagon, significant Supreme Court rulings, and the President's personal appearance at the high court. First, the guys open with the sudden firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi after a 14-month tenure. Despite her loyalty, Trey argues that President Trump is trying to create a far more unitary executive branch. The pair also includes a discussion of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent firings, which include Army Chief of Staff General Randy George and General David Honder. Justin argues that the strategy is clear: bomb things. They both also laugh about Hegseth getting involved in a flyby of Kid Rock’s house. Next, they move to the Supreme Court’s 8-1 ruling in Chile v. Solars, which challenged Colorado’s ban on conversion therapy for licensed counselors. While the law wasn't fully struck down, Trey outlines how the Court directed lower courts to apply the strict scrutiny standard. Justin and Trey debate the boundary between regulating medical practice and protecting professional speech. After that, they move to a historic first: a president personally attending oral arguments at the Supreme Court. In this case, it was President Trump personally attending regarding his executive order to end birthright citizenship. Trey highlights the President's post-hearing comments where he labeled the justices "stupid people" for insisting on their independence from the man who appointed them. The pair discuss the tension between this action and the constitutional separation of powers. Then it is a move to the executive order directing the Department of Homeland Security and the Postal Service to create a master list of confirmed citizens. The order threatens election workers with prosecution if they issue ballots to those deemed ineligible by the federal government. Justin explores the federalism concerns of the executive branch intervening in state-run elections. They close the show by reviewing President Trump’s Wednesday night address on the conflict in Iran. Trump claimed military success and suggested operations could conclude in two to three weeks, despite the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a proposed trillion-dollar defense budget. Trey ends the show discussing the challenges of modern warfare, asymmetric warfare, where drones and missiles often bypass traditional air superiority. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken transition from the writings of John Jay to Alexander Hamilton in this week’s midweek Federalist Papers show. Topics discussed include: Hamilton’s deeply pessimistic view of human conduct and his response to the idea that democracies or commercial republics are inherently peaceful.  A deep dive into the four specific triggers Hamilton believed would afflict a disunited America, including the massive Revolutionary War debt. Hamilton’s warning that disunion would force states to adopt the fortified borders and standing armies of Europe.  The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week’s show, Trey and Ken discuss why the Senate funded the TSA while excluding ICE, along with the legality of President Trump’s plan to pay workers using a slush fund from last year’s tax bill.  Next, they move to Iran’s rejection of the U.S.’s 15-point peace plan and the administration's controversial preventative self-defense justification filed with the UN. After that, they turn to the allegations of insider trading, including a $580 million spike in oil bets placed minutes before President Trump’s social media posts and the rise of the prediction markets as a feature of modern warfare.  The pair then moves to the Mar-a-Lago upset, which saw Democrat Emily Gregory’s 19-point flip of Florida House District 87, and how the shift in suburban voters may stall Florida’s gerrymandering efforts.  Trey and Ken close the show looking at how the FBI has potentially used a loophole in the Fourth Amendment to bypass warrants by purchasing bulk location data from commercial brokers. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode, Mike and Michael discuss the first New Rule of Politics (which is also an old rule of politics): follow the money. Mike contends that money is the most visible and measurable driver of political incentives, arguing that while it rarely buys votes outright, it is essential for viability and influence. Mike emphasizes how campaign finance evolved into a system where legal, structural incentives prioritize access and donor influence over outright corruption, while Michael highlights how massive spending, small-donor dynamics, and technological targeting reinforce polarization and keep the system escalating. The guys close with the practical implications: money signals who is viable, shapes which issues get attention, and determines who gets access to policymakers. Mike argues that donors—especially large ones—buy influence rather than outcomes, while Michael underscores that even well-intentioned politicians are constrained by these incentives, leaving ordinary citizens with limited direct influence. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Russ open with a discussion of the ongoing U.S.–Israel war with Iran, focusing on rising costs, limited military capacity, and unclear strategic objectives. Mike frames the conflict as a mix of presidential preference for displays of strength and structural constraints, while Russ argues the war exposes a disconnect between public opinion and foreign policy, emphasizing skepticism of regime change and questioning whose interests are actually being served. Next, they turn to the Illinois primary elections, highlighting progressive Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton’s Senate primary win and the mixed results for progressive candidates in House races amid heavy outside spending. Mike sees the results as favoring institutionally backed “pragmatic progressives” and boosting Governor Pritzker’s national profile, while Russ views the outcomes as evidence of growing grassroots progressive momentum despite financial disadvantages and electoral losses. The guys close with a broader reflection on political incentives and public perception, with Mike emphasizing how narratives around voter fraud can be politically useful regardless of factual basis, and Russ warning that the success of such narratives points to deeper issues in political literacy and the ability of leaders to shape reality for their supporters. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken unlock Jay’s the Federalist Papers' No 2 - 5.  In this episode, the pair examine how Jay envisioned a unified nation's path to peace, strength, and global influence. Topics include Jay’s Hobbesian vision and perspective of a war where decentralized American states invites chaos, while a united America deters foreign aggressors from Europe. The hosts also overview Jay’s views on the need for a singular national identity and how he saw a powerful national government as being more likely to obey international law. Join Trey and Ken as they explore the details of why Jay was in favor of a strong, centralized leadership to secure America’s future internationally. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Trey and Ken delve into Iran's leadership transition and the strategic impact of recent U.S. and Israeli military actions. They explore the internal dynamics of Iran's regime and the role of Jared Kushner's shadow diplomacy in escalating tensions, potentially sparking new conflicts with Cuba. The discussion shifts to domestic terrorism, examining links to recent radicalized attacks on U.S. soil and debating the potential necessity of reopening the DHS amid heightened security risks. The episode concludes with an analysis of Trump's legislative strategy, focusing on the implications of the Save America Act. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this preview of the midweek supporters' exclusive show, Mike and Michael introduce The New Rules of Politics, a new series aimed at explaining modern American politics through incentives, institutions, and systemic dynamics rather than personalities. Mike argues that many traditional ways of interpreting politics no longer work because the broader environment—especially technology, media, and political rules—has changed faster than the institutions governing politics can adapt. The conversation explores how structural factors such as low-turnout primaries, the nationalization of politics, changes in media business models, and the growing influence of money in campaigns shape who succeeds in politics and how they behave once in office. They also discuss declining public trust in institutions, the possibility that figures like Donald Trump are products of modern political incentives rather than unique anomalies, and the difficulty of meaningful constitutional or institutional reform in an era of deep polarization. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with a discussion of the widening U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran and the debate over whether President Trump’s military action constitutes a limited campaign or the start of a broader regional war. Mike argues the strike is risky but legally permissible under the War Powers Resolution and sees multiple plausible rationales for it, while Michael contends it amounts to an illegal war that bypassed Congress and risks unintended consequences both geopolitically and domestically.  Next, the guys analyze the first major signals from the 2026 midterm cycle after primaries in Texas and North Carolina and consider whether Democrats could plausibly take back the Senate. Michael argues the expanding map and several competitive races suggest the Senate may genuinely be in play for Democrats, while Mike is more skeptical and sees something like a 50–50 Senate as the best realistic outcome for Democrats, noting the growing number of Republican retirements as a strong indicator that Democrats are very likely to capture the House. They close with a look at President Trump’s firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and the surprising decision to nominate Senator Markwayne Mullin as her replacement. Michael argues Noem’s removal followed mounting scandals and leadership failures, but warns Mullin’s appointment signals an unserious approach to governing, while Mike suggests Trump prioritizes loyalty and public messaging over managerial competence in choosing high-profile cabinet figures.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Trey open this supporters' exclusive midweek episode with President Trump’s Defense Production Act order boosting domestic glyphosate production amid lawsuits and MAHA backlash, with Mike arguing that the weight of scientific evidence does not support typical-use carcinogen claims while warning against reflexive “chemicals are toxins” thinking, and Trey emphasizing the real policy tension between potential health risks and the massive food price shocks that would follow an abrupt ban, especially given agricultural and national security dependencies.  Next, they examine the whistleblower complaint involving DNI Tulsi Gabbard and the White House’s executive privilege claim, with Trey skeptical of shielding information already deemed non-credible by inspectors general and questioning why even the Gang of Eight cannot review it, and Mike arguing that the privilege rationale is strained and reflects a broader pattern of prioritizing loyalty over institutional competence in key national security roles.  After that, the guys dig into the Supreme Court’s USPS immunity ruling, with Mike contending that the majority stretched ordinary meanings of “loss” and “miscarriage” to create what amounts to a blanket shield against intentional non-delivery claims, and Trey arguing the decision ignores statutory context and undermines accountability—particularly troubling given allegations of racially motivated mail withholding in the underlying case.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Trey open with a breakdown of President Trump’s State of the Union address, focusing on the political strategy behind the speech and what it signals about governing priorities in a divided environment. Mike argues that the address was less about persuasion and more about consolidating partisan narratives, while Trey contends that the more revealing story was how much of the address leaned on grievance and spectacle Next, the guys turn to the Supreme Court’s ruling blocking the administration’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs, unpacking the majority and dissenting arguments and what it means for executive power in trade policy. Mike makes a case for the dissenters' position, while Trey argues that the practical impact may be limited because the administration can pivot to other trade statutes and keep much of its tariff agenda alive. After that, they discuss the Pentagon’s threat to label Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” exploring the tension between national security control and private-sector AI development. Mike raises concerns about how broadly the designation could be used to pressure firms into compliance, while Trey highlights the practical question of how dependent the Defense Department and its contractors have already become on frontier AI systems. The guys close by reflecting on how these three stories—presidential messaging, judicial constraint, and AI leverage—illustrate an ongoing struggle over institutional power in an era of rapid technological and geopolitical change. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 9 Habeas Corpus Bills of Attainder Ex Post Facto Laws, The Emoluments Clause ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week’s supporters’ exclusive midweek show, Justin and Trey continue their examination of political ideologies. This week, they dive into nationalism and its more extreme version, facism. They cover the definition of a nation and a national identity empirically, before exploring what a nationalist believes as an ideology.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Justin open with a deep discussion of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 Munich Security Conference speech. Trey argues that the speech fits into a Huntington Clash of Civilizations modality, which while it unites with Europe attacks the larger evils of the other. Both hosts dive into what Western Civilization means, why it isn’t a bad thing, but why it is important to be careful in drawing good guys and bad guys into civilization conversations. Next, the guys turn to Learning Resources v. Trump, or the Supreme Court’s rebuke of Trump’s tariffs. Trey comes in hot and argues that the minority opinion’s view, especially Justice Thomas, completely misunderstands the Constitution and elevates the problematic unitary theory of the executive view of the presidency. Justin believes that the Trump administration will simply bring forward the tariffs again. Both hosts agree that the president’s comments after the ruling are troubling. After that, they move to discussing the death of Jesse Jackson. Here, they focus not only on his legacy but what this means for the future of civil rights and the underlying changes to political protest in the age of social media. They close with an in-depth discussion of Iran’s attempted closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing U.S. pressure on Iran. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 8 Taxing and Spending The 16th Amendment The 3/5th Compromise ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Ken open this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode with a look at TrumpRx, a government-branded prescription drug discount portal. Mike points out that it offers real savings on certain high-cost drugs and signals a willingness to confront pharmaceutical pricing, but suggests it may function more as a Big Pharma marketing funnel than structural reform. Ken contends it risks undermining insurance markets, misdirects consumers from systemic solutions like negotiation or single-payer leverage, and may create perverse incentives while doing little beyond what private platforms already offer. Next, the guys turn to new post–SFFA admissions data showing declines in Black and Hispanic enrollment at Ivy Plus schools alongside gains at flagship state universities. Mike wrestles with whether racial underrepresentation at elite institutions signals enduring structural inequities and questions the sincerity of diversity commitments given the persistence of legacy admissions. Ken argues the legal reasoning of the Court is more flawed than the policy debate itself, maintains that diversity judgments should rest with institutions rather than courts, and questions whether elite credentials are as economically decisive as commonly believed. They close by examining a survey forecasting American decline by 2036, including rising Chinese economic dominance, democratic backsliding, nuclear proliferation, and continued U.S. military primacy. Mike sees plausible warning signs but also considers whether AI leadership could entrench U.S. dominance in a new way. Ken cautions against straight-line extrapolation, doubts that AI’s transformative impact is settled, and notes that military strength alone may not sustain global influence. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Ken open with the end of ICE’s “Operation Metro Surge” in Minneapolis, a federal judge’s masking ruling, and a looming DHS shutdown, framing the debate over whether the administration’s hardline immigration tactics are enforcement or political theater. Mike argues the surge squandered a politically strong issue by embracing heavy-handed tactics that hurt Trump in the polls and likely achieved little lasting cooperation, while Ken contends the real aim was to intimidate blue-state critics and that, on that metric, the operation failed. Next, the guys turn to the House vote rebuking Trump’s Canada tariffs and the Supreme Court’s delay in the expedited tariff case. Mike sees the narrow GOP defections as limited but symbolically notable and remains skeptical that the Court would uphold most of the tariffs after oral argument, while Ken suggests the delay likely signals a forthcoming decision striking at least some tariffs and possibly reflects complex remedy questions—or even quiet political timing. They close with a look at Attorney General Pam Bondi’s combative House testimony and broader changes at DOJ in Trump’s second term. Mike emphasizes the erosion of professional norms, mass departures of career attorneys, and a personalized pardon process as evidence of politicization, while Ken argues structural moves like Schedule F reclassification and the dismantling of internal guardrails amount to a deliberate fusion of partisan politics with federal law enforcement. Mike presents what he believes to be the strongest MAGA defense of Trump’s DOJ overhaul—that prior Democratic administrations politicized the department and that stronger presidential control enhances accountability. Ken counters that long-standing norms of relative independence have served the public well and that today’s changes risk normalizing corruption rather than correcting bias. Check out Mike’s recent appearance on Bill Cancel’s BoricuaBC2 podcast (YouTube, Apple Podcasts) The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 8 Necessary and Proper Clause United States' National Bank Controversy ⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠X⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠ or⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporter’s exclusive midweek show, Trey and Mike open with a discussion of the U.S.-India trade deal. The discussion focuses on the relationship to the potential deal and its effects on Russia. Trey argues that current fiscal policy is well outside the empirical truth understood by the most recent scholarship, and Mike wonders if a deal will ever occur. Next, they discuss the unusual Trump vs. Trump case where Trump is suing the IRS for $ 10 billion. Trey argues that if Trump was serious about the injury, he would have sued for just $1. Mike tries to come at it from the point of view of MAGA and argues that many would rather see President Trump with $10 billion rather than the state. They close the show discussing the way in which the EPA is shifting from using a calculation of the value of human life. Trey argues the measure isn’t perfect, but it helps us understand and quantify the effects. Mike largely agrees, but understands the fuzzy nature of the metric currently used. ⁠Read Trey’s Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠Sustainable Planet⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this weekend episode, Trey and Mike discuss the recent government shutdown and budget negotiations, focusing on the implications of Democratic proposals regarding ICE and law enforcement. Mike argues that Democrats have a fine opening bid, but their list is not going to get met. Trey agrees, but they disagree deeply over what ought to be implemented. Trey is firmly for the unmasking of ICE agents along with true warrants. Mike believes the dangers to ICE agents outweigh libertarian and liberal ideals. Next, they dive into so-called midterm election integrity with a focus on the Save America Act and the Make Elections Great Again (MEGA) Act. Here, Trey is more sympathetic to compromise and the need for ID’s in elections, but Mike worries that ICE agents even being threatened will decrease voter turnout. Trey counters that if that is the case, then it is time to push for more ICE reform. They end the show discussing the Epstein-related document dump, the remaining redactions, and the fundamental problem of elite accountability. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the second episode of The Politics Guys Present, Trey and Ken tackle the Preamble to the U.S Constitution, plus dive into Article I, Section 1, 2 and 3. Topics include: The purposes of the Constitution An overview of the U.S. House An overview of the U.S. Senate ⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠Sustainable Planet⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Trey, and Russ open with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech arguing that the rules-based international order has ruptured and that middle powers should loosen their reliance on U.S. hegemony. Mike frames the debate around the long-term benefits versus short-term costs of American dominance, Trey agrees with Carney’s realist diagnosis but rejects his prescription to abandon liberal institutions, and Russ emphasizes the symbolic importance of a Western leader openly challenging U.S. power even if the material constraints make real independence unlikely. Next, the guys turn to the Trump administration’s plans to use AI in government, from Google’s Gemini drafting DOT regulations to the Pentagon exploring AI-assisted battlefield decision-making. Mike distinguishes between limited gains from AI-generated draft rules and much deeper risks from long-term dependence on private AI models, Trey focuses on the danger of outsourcing judgment rather than using AI as a narrow tool, and Russ argues that autonomous decision-making represents a disturbing further distancing of humans from moral responsibility, especially in warfare. Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Davos Speech (video and transcript) The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Trey, and new-to-the-show cohost Russ Gifford open with the January 27 assault on Rep. Ilhan Omar at a Minneapolis town hall. Trey frames the incident as crossing a line but notes it was closer to an “enhanced protest” than a lethal attack, stressing that it could have been far worse. Russ draws a parallel to symbolic political assaults like the shoe thrown at George W. Bush, while Mike emphasizes that President Trump’s response—suggesting Omar staged the attack—says more about the coarsening of political norms than about the physical harm involved. Next, the guys turn to the escalating ICE controversy in Minneapolis following the killing of Alex Pretti, with video evidence undermining the official account and intensifying public backlash. Trey argues that the administration’s actions have perversely handed Democrats a political win, while underscoring due-process concerns and warning against shifting legal standards based on a suspect’s past behavior. Russ criticizes both federal and local leadership, portraying the administration’s approach as driven by spectacle rather than policy coherence, while Mike focuses on structural issues—especially the use of administrative warrants and the Fourth Amendment implications — suggesting that any de-escalation will hinge on whether Congress meaningfully reins in ICE authority. They close with a look at President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve. Trey contends Warsh is a serious, experienced figure rather than a crank, though the politics of confirmation remain fraught. Mike highlights the tension between Warsh’s past inflation hawkishness and his current openness to rate cuts. Both agree that Trump’s broader economic agenda—especially tariffs—sits uneasily with calls for lower rates and risks undermining institutional credibility. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this first episode of The Politics Guys Present, Trey and Ken introduce the U.S. Constitution. Topics include: The American historic context of the U.S. Constitution The Articles of Confederation Federalists and Anti-Federalists The conservatism of the U.S. Constitution Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Justin continue their series on political ideologies, this week with anarchism. Topics covered include: What is an anarchist? What does it mean to reject the state? Anarchism and human nature The positive vision of life after the state The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Trey and Justin open the show by announcing The Politics Guys Presents: The U.S. Constitution. This is a new drop coming on Wednesdays, open to all listeners, to get a detailed understanding of the U.S. Constitution! After that, the pair move to Trump’s seeming U-Turn on Greenland. Trey argues that the goal isn’t Greenland necessarily, but rather to change the relationship with our former allies. He connects it to the United States exiting the World Health Organization. Justin argues Trump was trying to project strength and did not realize the extent of opposition he would face from Europe. Next, the pair moves to the Board of Peace, President Trump’s pet project. Justin sees the entire organization as a joke, but Trey tends to see it more seriously, arguing that it lays out the underlying Trumpian vision: himself in total control. They also discuss its empirically unique status and the weirdness of having a subscription model for an international organization. They also discuss the Board’s first deliverable: Jared Kushner’s 100-Day Gaza Plan. Then the guys move to the House budget bills. Here, they both largely agree that the defection of Republicans on spending items is due to the upcoming midterm elections and the realization that DOGE-like cuts cannot, and will not, solve the budget deficit. The guys close with a discussion of the new warrant policy with ICE and the decision to begin arresting children. The pair agree the tactics are designed to illicit fear, even among legal immigrants.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with a deep dive into the Supreme Court cases involving Idaho and West Virginia bans on transgender girls participating in girls’ sports, unpacking why the Court is likely to uphold the laws while sharply distinguishing between what may be legally permissible and what constitutes sound or humane policy. Mike emphasizes administratability, original legislative meaning in Title IX, and the unavoidable reality that someone loses under any legal rule, while Michael argues the Court is ducking meaningful scrutiny, endorsing blanket exclusions, and turning vulnerable kids into symbolic casualties of a broader culture war. Next, the guys turn to housing affordability and the Trump administration’s proposals, including banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes and pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy massive amounts of mortgage bonds. Mike argues that both ideas ultimately protect current homeowners while leaving prices high, while Michael situates the moves in Trump’s broader pattern of populist gimmicks that acknowledge real problems but avoid the politically painful solution of dramatically expanding housing supply. After that, they revisit the “Don’t Obey Unlawful Orders” video fallout, focusing on the administration’s actions against Senator Mark Kelly and Senator Slotkin. Michael frames the investigations as straightforward weaponization of government, where the process itself becomes punishment, while Mike stresses the long-term danger of normalizing this logic, warning that even conservatives should fear the precedent it sets for democratic stability and the rule of law. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with an update on events in Minneapolis in the wake of the killing of Renee Good. Michael emphasizes how polling shows broad public skepticism and frames the situation as a legitimacy crisis for ICE, while Mike argues the administration’s response reflects an entrenched us-versus-them mentality that treats protesters as enemies rather than citizens. Next, the guys pivot to the clash between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the Fed’s headquarters renovation and the resulting DOJ investigation. Michael lays out the cost overruns, subpoenas, and Republican unease about Fed independence, while Mike argues the overruns are routine for large infrastructure projects and sees the investigation as an unforced, politically motivated error that risks undermining monetary policy credibility. The guys close with a discussion of Iran’s nationwide protests and the Trump administration’s evolving response. Michael stresses the uncertainty of regime change and the risks of U.S. involvement appearing as external manipulation, while Mike argues that sanctions and kinetic pressure may have weakened the regime enough to make meaningful change more plausible, even as both acknowledge the danger of unintended consequences. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this midweek show, Trey and Mike look to the expanding international vision from Trumpworld as it relates primarily to Greenland. Mike argues that Greenland is just saber rattling, but Trey argues that it is more. Further, he argues that MAGA does not see common ground with other democracies, especially in Europe. Next, they discuss the economic policies of exiting the global tax agreements. Mike believes it was the best move in the case of the U.S. Trey goes into the details of how Europe has targeted the U.S. in terms of taxes. They close the show with their rants and recommendations. Mike’s rant is that One Battle After Another is nothing but a leftist fantasy. Trey’s rant is anti-immigration Christians. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike joins Trey to open the show with a deep dive into the ICE killing of Renee Good. Mike focuses on the language used by administrative officials and its militant attack on Good. Trey highlights that, even if Good was engaged in illegal activity, there is a level of due process. He also argues that federalism better handles police situations because they are inherently a part of those communities. Next, the guys turn to a deeper dive into Operation Absolute Resolve or the attack on Venezuela. While last week the guys got a quick first take, this week Trey and Mike were able to dive deeper. The pair are in large agreement, but while Trey focuses on the aspects of international law, Mike argues that even pragmatically it makes little sense. They close the show looking at the suspension of TANF funds to Democratic states. Trey argues that the current block grant format of federal government spending largely means that states are not concerned with waste and fraud. Mike suggests that Congress would be better off legislating new rules for fraud, but that the current mode simply seems to be punishing states who disagree with Trump. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with CBS News pulling a 60 Minutes investigation into alleged abuse of Venezuelan migrants deported to El Salvador, focusing less on the prison itself than on what the decision signals about media independence. Mike argues that conditioning broadcast on administration participation amounts to false balance and effectively hands officials a veto over investigative journalism, while Michael stresses that the move breaks with 60 Minutes’ role as a mass-audience accountability institution rather than a niche outlet. Next, the guys step back and treat Trump’s first year as a scorecard exercise, weighing major 2024 campaign promises against outcomes across inflation, Ukraine, taxes, tariffs, immigration, and “draining the swamp.” Michael frames the segment as a reality check on which promises were structurally impossible, which were substantively kept, and which were kept only by expanding executive power, while Mike emphasizes that Trump largely delivered where he could, but at the cost of higher prices, degraded state capacity, and long-run institutional risks that are likely to matter more politically than symbolic wins. They close with Trump’s move to put his name on the Kennedy Center, debating whether it represents routine branding or an abuse of power that politicizes a national memorial. Michael highlights the legal vulnerabilities and cultural backlash already hurting the institution, while Mike sees the episode as emblematic of Trump’s show-business instincts and insecurity, warning that spectacle-driven politics may be crowding out restraint as the country looks ahead to 2028. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with the breaking news that the Trump administration launched military strikes against Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, debating whether the operation violates international law and risks plunging Venezuela into deeper instability. Michael stresses the fog of war, unresolved legal authority, and the danger posed by entrenched militias and fractured institutions, while Mike argues that even removing a brutal strongman sets a dangerous precedent when done outside the UN framework and without clear congressional authorization. Next, the guys turn to domestic executive power in Trump v. Illinois, analyzing the Supreme Court’s refusal to lift an injunction blocking the federalization of the National Guard and Trump’s subsequent decision to stand down, at least for now. Michael defends the Court’s insistence on a clear statutory basis and warns that Justice Alito’s dissent reflects an overly expansive view of presidential power, while Mike criticizes the majority’s strained reading of the statute, siding more with Alito’s interpretation but still opposing the administration’s policy as reckless and destabilizing. Finally, the conversation becomes more personal as Michael presses Mike on his recent decision to stop identifying as a Democrat and what that means philosophically and politically. Mike explains his Humean conservatism, rooted in epistemic humility and institutional fragility, argues that modern politics punishes restraint and caution, and concludes that while he is politically homeless, his commitment to rule of law means he will continue voting Democratic as long as Trumpism dominates the Republican Party. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Mike join in this holiday-sized show! The pair start with a look into the Pentagon’s investigation into Senator Kelly over his video of illegal orders. Mike outlines the contours of the military code of justice. Trey argues for the need for members of the Senate (and House) to have the ability to speak freely. Next, they move to the ongoing feud between Candace Owens and Erica Kirk over TPUSA and the killing of Charlie Kirk. Trey argues that the future of the political right is who wins in this battle. Mike argues Owens is simply a grifter, but Trey argues that today’s media environment creates unintended consequences for the consumers of a grifter’s product. After that, it is a Politics Guys tradition: making predictions on 2026! Listen for both hosts’ 2026 predictions! The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Mike start with a focus on economic affordability, inflation rates, and the implications of Trump's economic policies. Trey outlines the historic economic conditions between Trump and Biden, noting that the economic conditions under Trump were better than under Biden. Mike argues that you can’t look at the total average under Biden because of COVID.  Next, they discuss Trump's pardon of Tina Peters, exploring the limits of presidential power and the role of norms in governance. Mike argues that, from a textualist viewpoint, the U.S. Constitution is consistent with a unitary theory of the presidency. Trey disagrees sharply, arguing that no matter the framework of constitutional interpretation, you can’t get to a unitary vision of the presidency. The show ends on an extended debate between Trey and Mike over the need for more than paper barriers in political systems. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Joey open with a deep dive into the emerging battle over Warner Bros. Discovery, weighing Netflix’s proposed mega-merger against Paramount Skydance’s rival bid and asking whether antitrust law still has teeth in a streaming world defined by consolidation. Mike stresses market definition, consumer harm, and the risk of enshittification when dominant platforms get complacent, while Joey argues consolidation raises prices and erodes both competition and the marketplace of ideas  Next, they turn to the idea of “objective” or traditional news, debating David Ellison’s claim that CNN and CBS could rebuild a fact-driven, ideologically broad audience. Joey defends the possibility and sees value in restoring credibility and competition in media, while Mike remains skeptical that mass audiences in 2025 want anything other than affirmation and outrage, even if he’d personally welcome the experiment  After that, the conversation shifts to the Minnesota COVID-era fraud scandal, where more than a billion dollars meant for vulnerable populations was allegedly stolen. Mike frames it as a structural failure driven by weak oversight, rushed emergency funding, and overreliance on nonprofits, while Joey emphasizes the brazen nature of the fraud and warns against the weaponization of racism accusations to shut down scrutiny  Then they tackle harder cultural questions around assimilation, balkanization, and how identity politics complicates governance and accountability. Mike argues these are permanent tensions between competing values that require constant management rather than simple fixes, while Joey worries that avoidance of honest discussion creates openings for corruption and social decay  Finally, the guys close with listener questions on evidence-based policy, tariffs, deficits, and accusations of authoritarianism in the Trump era. Mike concedes the right often diagnoses problems with big government more accurately but rejects its preferred cures, while Joey defends tariffs as pragmatic fair-trade tools and dismisses claims of rising authoritarianism as rhetorical overreach fueled by fundraising incentives on both sides The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Joey open with a look at U.S. missile strikes on alleged Venezuelan drug boats and the seizure of an oil tanker, debating whether Article II authority is enough or whether Congress should have a say. Mike presses on limiting principles, civilian deaths, and why Coast Guard interdiction might achieve the same ends with fewer moral costs, while Joey argues the strikes fit long-standing counterterror logic and reflect the president’s duty to act decisively against narco-terror networks  Next, they pivot to Trump v. Slaughter and the fate of Humphrey’s Executor, unpacking what presidential removal power means for “independent” agencies. Joey leans toward a unitary executive reading that restores democratic accountability, while Mike agrees the precedent is weak but worries that blowing it up without Congress rebuilding its own capacity could turbocharge executive whiplash and regulatory chaos  After that, the discussion widens into the administrative state itself, with both circling the same problem from different angles: Congress has offloaded too much responsibility, leaving courts and agencies to fill the void. Mike stresses the need for narrow, well-defined lanes where experts handle technical matters but elected officials own big policy choices, while Joey pushes the idea that forcing Congress back into the driver’s seat may be the only way to fix the incentive rot  The guys close with a sober reflection on stability versus accountability, warning that unchecked executive swings risk long-term incoherence at home and weakness abroad. Despite sharp disagreements, they converge on a rare point of unity: the system’s dysfunction is less about any one president and more about a legislature that has forgotten how to govern  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the excellent Sustainable Planet podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices