11th March 2026 — Markets Whipsaw as mis-information creates Hormuz Confusion

Oil markets endured their most volatile session in years as crude crashed more than 10% before partly recovering, driven by conflicting signals from the White House over Strait of Hormuz operations and intelligence reports of Iranian mine-laying activity. US equities lagged a global rally, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.2% while Asian and European markets surged. China's exports boomed at 22% growth in early 2026, dwarfing expectations. The Australian dollar hit a three-year high after the RBA's deputy governor warned of "toxic" inflation risks, with markets now pricing a majority chance of a rate hike next week. Oracle's strong earnings beat after hours offered a bright spot for tech sentiment. All eyes turn to US CPI data on Wednesday for clues on the inflation and rate outlook.Key Takeaways• Oil plunged over 10% in its biggest one-day fall since 2022, with WTI settling near $86.73 amid extreme volatility tied to conflicting White House messaging on Strait of Hormuz operations.• US equities lagged the global rally — the S&P 500 fell 0.2% while South Korean stocks surged 6% and European benchmarks rose up to 3%.• Oracle beat expectations after the bell, with cloud infrastructure revenue up 84% and fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $90 billion, sending shares up ~7% in extended trading.• China's exports surged 22% in the first two months of 2026, with the January–February trade surplus reaching $213 billion, potentially on track to break last year's record.• The Australian dollar hit a three-year high of US71.70¢ after RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's hawkish warning on inflation, with markets now pricing a 62% chance of a March rate hike.• US February CPI due tonight (11:30pm AEDT) is the key data event, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a below-consensus core reading of 0.17% month-on-month.