MPC Markets Morning Call

TSMC posted a 77% profit jump, beat on every line, raised CapEx to $60–64 billion — and the stock fell 2.3%. That tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now. The SOX index cratered 4%, Micron dropped 8%, AMD lost 3%, and the NASDAQ slid 1.5% for the session. Netflix didn't help either, down ~10% after hours on soft Q3 guidance and a move to reduce reporting transparency.Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a fifth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Tehran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea if Washington hits power infrastructure — putting both Middle East oil choke points at risk simultaneously. Oil barely moved. That disconnect won't last.Dallas Fed's Logan called for "modestly higher" rates. Retail sales came in at +0.2%. Jobless claims fell to 208k. The economy's fine. The Fed isn't cutting.Plus: ASX outlook, Coles walking from Greencross, BHP strike action, and what to watch next week when Alphabet, Tesla, and Eli Lilly report.Hosted by Mark Gardner | mpcmarkets.com.au

PPI dropped to 5.5%. The target's 2%. The market's partying like inflation's fixed — it isn't. Fifth day of US strikes on Iran, Hormuz still closed, crude grinding higher. All that inflation relief is about to unwind. Hot money flipping between chips and hyperscalers daily. Margin lending up $400bn with zero downside protection. Copper the real story — Rio doubled earnings growth, BHP reports today. Plus: why the MOU might have been a 60-day executive powers reset, and why a September government shutdown is near-certain.

CPI dropped to 3.5% and stocks bounced, but we think the celebration is premature — it's still well above target and mostly driven by oil prices rolling back. Bank earnings were a mixed bag: Goldman Sachs up 9% on record trading, JP Morgan posted record profit, but Citi fell 5%. We break down why the trading desks are carrying these numbers and what it means for the sector.The bigger story: retail margin lending has ballooned to $1.4 trillion, fund managers have almost no cash to buy a dip, and put volumes are at the floor. We explain why that setup makes us short-term cautious and what we're doing about it for clients — including a structured investment that caps downside while keeping upside exposure through a look-back entry mechanism.Plus: gold and copper bouncing, crude pulling back, TSMC guidance tomorrow, and why the ASX should have a decent day off the back of bank earnings and commodity strength.

Oil's back at $80 and the Iran war is officially back on. Trump reimposed the Hormuz blockade and demanded a 20% toll on all shipping. Chip stocks got hammered after SK Hynix plunged 15% in Seoul and the KOSPI hit another circuit breaker. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, Nasdaq dropped 1.6%.Fed Governor Waller says another hot inflation print is "signal, not noise" — markets now price 50-50 odds of a July hike. US CPI tonight. All five major US banks report today.We cover the Hormuz shipping collapse, copper's quiet grind higher, Europe's jet fuel crunch, gold under pressure, and portfolio positioning at elevated levels.

The US-Iran ceasefire is dead. Four days of strikes, 300 Iranian targets, and Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Trump says it's open — the satellite data says otherwise. Oil up 3%, ASX futures down half a percent.Meta surged 6% on an AI compute upgrade. SK Hynix debuted with the largest-ever foreign IPO on the Nasdaq at $26.5B. Netflix slipped on subscriber engagement concerns.Mark flags the risks stacking up: record margin debt, fund managers with no dry powder, near-record-low put/call skew, and hyperscaler CapEx inflation heading into earnings. None fatal alone — together they're worth watching. Full detail in our Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy episode.Week ahead: US bank earnings (JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi), TSMC, BHP ops review, Netflix, CPI Tuesday. Plus Buy the Dip closing mid next week — details at https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDip

Chip stocks powered Wall Street higher as investors brushed aside U.S.–Iran strikes. S&P 500 +0.8% to 7,541.83, Nasdaq +1.3%. SK Hynix raised $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in U.S. history. Meta up 4.7% on AI chip production plans, Muse Spark 1.1 launch, and cloud business exploration. Crude fell ~2% despite 170 U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after Trump said Iran called wanting a deal. Leverage in equity markets hitting alarming levels. Fed's Warsh named five task forces with serious firepower to overhaul how the central bank operates. Week ahead: CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, big bank earnings kick off with JPMorgan and BofA, TSMC Thursday. Bulls vs Bears podcast out tonight ~6pm.

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at NATO, launching a second day of strikes as markets closed. Oil surged past $80 before settling at $78.55. The S&P dipped 0.3% while chip stocks bounced. Fed minutes showed a split committee on rate hikes under new chair Warsh. We break down the Iran escalation, oil dynamics, Hormuz traffic, Nvidia's China chip deal, the IMF growth downgrade, bond yield spikes, earnings season risks, and why portfolio hedging matters right now.

Samsung's record profit wasn't enough. Chip stocks got hammered across the board, with the Philly Semis down 4.7% and Intel off nearly 10%. The US hit Iran with fresh strikes and revoked its oil sales waiver after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude surged 5%, gold dropped, and bond yields hit a four-week high.But here's the thing — most S&P 500 stocks rose. Money is rotating out of tech, not leaving the market. We break down what that means, plus SpaceX's rough first day on the Nasdaq 100, SK Hynix's monster IPO, the VIX sitting at cycle lows, and what to watch for Wednesday including the Fed minutes.

Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck's AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.

Dow hits record 52,899 but chip stocks crater. June payrolls: 57k vs 115k expected. Rate hike odds slashed. We cover the jobs miss, what it means for the Fed, Meta's $145B AI capex scramble, oil flattening at pre-war levels, gold surging on dollar weakness, and why 87% of the S&P 500's H1 gains came from chips alone. Plus the 1990s Desert Storm parallel for where inflation goes from here. No show Monday (July 4th) — back Tuesday. Catch Bulls vs Bears this afternoon for the full H1 wrap.🔗 mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast📊 Free Mosaic trial: mpcmarkets.com.au/mosaic

Book a Portfolio Review: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-review/Semiconductor stocks were hammered today after reports that OpenAI has dramatically cut inference costs through software optimisations — slashing GPU requirements for large parts of ChatGPT traffic. The SOX Index fell over 6% in its worst session in months, hitting Nvidia, AMD, Intel and chip equipment names hard after one of the strongest quarters on record.In this episode we break down what this means for the AI infrastructure trade, whether hyperscaler capex is at risk of slowing, and how the market is digesting the shift from training-heavy to inference-heavy dynamics. We also cover progress in US-Iran talks in Doha on the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets, which helped ease oil supply concerns.Plus, Fed’s Kevin Warsh struck a dovish tone on inflation risks at ECB Sintra, while fresh ISM data showed pipeline price pressures cooling sharply. We discuss positioning implications across equities, energy, gold and what to watch as US markets head into the July 4th holiday.

Best quarter in six years and chips stole the show. SOX up 88% for the quarter — its best ever. Micron quadrupled. Intel trebled. And the Mag Seven? Down 4% for the year. The companies spending the money are lagging the companies selling them the shovels.Gold's had its worst quarter since 2013, down 24% from the January highs. Iran talks resume in Doha but the "back to normal in two weeks" calls from Wall Street feel detached from reality. Samsung and SK Hynix just pledged $1.3 trillion in new chip investment. Nike beat on both lines and still sold off. JOLTS job openings hit a two-year high and rate hike bets are building.Plus: ASX starts FY27, South32 sells its aluminium business to Alcoa for $8.1bn, and why healthcare might be the rotation play when chip stocks eventually turn. Payrolls land Thursday night with no US market Friday — that Asian open could get spicy.S&P 500: 7,496 (+0.8%) | Nasdaq: 26,213 (+1.5%) | Dow: record 52,317 | SPI: 8,784

The Dow closed at a record 52,182 as Alphabet debuted in the index and tech staged a sharp rebound from last week's semiconductor selloff. Mark Gardner breaks down whether this is genuine buying or end-of-quarter window dressing — plus why the best quarter for equities since COVID might actually be a warning sign.Also covered: the Japanese yen at 40-year lows and what that means for equity markets, the ASX outlook with RBA minutes due today, Collins Foods hitting record revenue, early-stage biotech momentum, and a busy week ahead with non-farm payrolls landing on a pre-holiday Thursday.Key numbers: S&P 500 +1.2% to 7,439 • Nasdaq +2.3% • Dow +0.6% to 52,182 • SOX +87% YTD • Yen 161.94/USD (1986 low) • WTI $70.54 • ASX futures 8,825Weekly podcast: Bulls vs Bears drops every weekend with Mark, Finn, Kai & JT.MPC Markets | General commentary, not financial advice.

The chip index dropped 7.9% last week while Iran broke the ceasefire and struck two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil barely moved. The Fed's Kashkari has swung to a rate hike. And the BIS just warned that sovereign debt, AI overinvestment and leveraged hedge funds are building systemic risk.Mark covers the chip selloff and what it means for hyperscaler margins, why software stocks at 52-week lows could be a generational buy, the healthcare rotation, and what to watch on the ASX this shortened week — including RBA minutes, tax-loss selling season and U.S. payrolls on Thursday.New episodes every weekday before the ASX open. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast for the full written Morning Call.

Micron's blowout AI earnings sent memory stocks surging 16% — but the consequences hit fast. Apple raised prices across MacBooks and iPads by up to $500, Microsoft hiked Xbox pricing, and every Mag Seven name traded lower. The chip boom is feeding the same inflation problem the Fed is already fighting.KPMG now expects two rate hikes by year-end. May core PCE held at 3.4% YoY, GDP was revised sharply to 2.1%, and oil rebounded after an IRGC attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz threatened the fragile US–Iran peace deal. In Australia, employment surprised massively to the upside at +40,300 jobs — ASX futures up 9 points at 8,755.Covered today: Micron's $22bn in locked-in orders and what it means for hyperscaler margins, Apple and Microsoft passing costs through to consumers, the PCE inflation read and Fed hike outlook, the Hormuz incident and oil dynamics, commodities getting belted on the week, Australian employment and RBA minutes preview, plus the week ahead with non-farm payrolls brought forward for Independence Day.Daily pre-market analysis from MPC Markets. Subscribe for updates.

Micron Technology crushed Wall Street expectations overnight, reporting Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (a $6.2 billion beat) with cloud memory up 307% year-on-year and core data centre up 653%. The stock surged ~13% after hours, dragging Nasdaq futures up around 2% and effectively reversing the session's losses. Qualcomm added to the momentum with positive CEO commentary.In today's Morning Call, Mark Gardner covers:— Why Micron's result matters for the broader AI trade and whether the rally can continue from here— Oil hitting its lowest level since before the Iran war as 20 million barrels transit the Strait of Hormuz— The commodity rout across gold, silver, copper and crude — and where the buying opportunities might be— U.S. dollar strength and what's driving the move despite weakening consumer discretionary budgets— Australia's May employment data due today and what it means for the RBA rate path— Trim mean inflation coming in slightly higher than expected — rate hikes still on the agenda?— Healthcare sector green shoots: why names like CSL, Telix and Vive are starting to turn— JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs boosted dividends after passing Fed stress tests— a2 Milk's positive update and Tourism Holdings' fresh takeover approachASX 200 futures pointed ~20 points higher at the close. SPI up around 0.2% to 8,810.Listen to Bulls vs Bears every Friday for a deeper weekly dive — available at mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

MPC Markets Morning Call — 24 June 2026: Global Stocks Get Chip-WreckedThe headline writers got their byline this morning: markets got chip-wrecked. South Korea's KOSPI triggered circuit breakers and suffered its second-worst session in history — down 10% — after a local report claimed SK Hynix is shifting production away from AI memory chips (HBM) and back to cheaper commodity DRAM. Samsung copped the same treatment. Both stocks make up roughly half the index, so it was carnage.The damage spread fast. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 8%, Micron fell 13%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%. But outside the chip stocks? The market was surprisingly resilient. Microsoft was up. IBM gained 5%. Healthcare and consumer staples found buyers. The S&P 500 only fell 1.29% — not the sea of red you'd expect from that kind of Asian session.Mark breaks down why the KOSPI is a structurally volatile market — heavy retail options usage, extreme concentration — and why its moves should be read carefully, not reacted to. He also puts the SOX in perspective: even after last night's 8% fall, it's still up 157% over the past 12 months and 80%+ since April. MPC had already reduced its chip exposure earlier in the week — AMD, TSM, Lam Research, and Palantir were all trimmed or sold.In Australia, CPI for May drops today. The market's expecting headline inflation at 4.3% year-on-year, with the trimmed mean at 0.3% month-on-month. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks. And Micron reports after the US close tonight — that one matters. A bad number and nobody wants to think about what happens to the SOX.SpaceX joins the Russell Index on Friday. Bond yields remain stubborn. The US dollar had one of its better weeks in a long time, which is hammering silver, copper, lithium, and uranium. And KMD Brands is doing a 1-for-25 share consolidation while Sonic Healthcare got a Citi downgrade.In this episode: KOSPI circuit breaker explained · SOX 12-month context · MPC's chip trade trimming · Australia May CPI preview · Micron earnings risk · SpaceX Russell inclusion · AUD under pressure · RBA Deputy Governor Hauser watchListen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au.

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday as a wave of AI talent departures punished Alphabet and a post-IPO hangover accelerated SpaceX's three-day rout — while rotation into cyclicals and chip stocks kept the broader market afloat. Mark Gardner breaks down what moved markets overnight and what Australian investors need to watch today.In this episode:Alphabet –5% — Nobel laureate John Jumper (AlphaFold/DeepMind) leaves for Anthropic; co-Gemini architect Noam Shazeer defects to OpenAI. What back-to-back talent exits signal about Google's AI trajectory.SpaceX –16% to ~$154 — three days of losses, $600B in market cap erased. Is the $135 IPO price the next stop? Mark's view on where to watch for value.AI capex anxiety — Amazon, Meta and Microsoft shed ~$250B in combined market cap overnight. Who's writing the checks vs. who's cashing them.Micron +7% — strategic agreement with Anthropic on AI infrastructure. Super Micro Computer +16%. Getty Images soared on an OpenAI licensing deal.Lam Research — an MPC recommendation, up 5% overnight. What the team is doing with the position.Oil retreats — Brent below $78 as U.S.–Iran peace talks in Switzerland produce a 60-day oil sales waiver. Why the energy sector held firm despite the oil drop — and why Mark is watching Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil.WiseTech (ASX: WTC) — Morningstar's belated bear call, yesterday's 15% drop, and why MPC thinks a long-term buying opportunity may be forming under new CEO Zubin Appoo.USD/JPY at multi-month highs — where's the yen carry trade unwind? Mark's take.Alan Greenspan, 1926–2026 — a tribute to the Fed Chair who navigated irrational exuberance, the tech bubble, and the post-Volcker era.Day ahead — Wednesday's Australian CPI is the big local event. Micron earnings Thursday. What to watch.Key levels: S&P 500 7,475 | Nasdaq 26,166 | Brent $77.84 | Gold $4,192 | USD/JPY 161.60 | ASX SPI +0.2% to 8,831

US cash markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, but global stocks stalled heading into the weekend as US-Iran peace talks opened at Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Mark Gardner breaks down the 14-point memorandum of understanding, what's likely to pass and what isn't, and why crude oil may be the standout risk-reward trade right now — with downside of 5–10% versus upside of 10–25% if negotiations collapse.This episode covers:— US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock: Vance, Araghchi, and the 60-day negotiating window— Why Israel and Lebanon remain the wild card for any lasting deal— S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, US tech futures down 1%, oil up 2.5% as of recording— The case for energy as a portfolio hedge at extended US equity levels — Chevron, oil futures, and single-digit PE names— Fed, ECB, and RBA hawkishness hammering precious metals — gold under pressure— Australian CPI (Wednesday) and employment data (Thursday) — the numbers the RBA is watching— Metcash (MTS) full-year earnings today; BHP Jansen potash cost blowout fallout— Micron earnings Thursday morning — can memory prices justify the Philadelphia Semiconductors rally?— US core PCE price index, final GDP, and Michigan sentiment later in the weekMentioned: Software Survivors 2.0 webinar, Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast (Anthropic and OpenAI deep dive with Kai Chen and Jonathan Takadena)🎧 Subscribe: Spotify | Apple Podcasts | YouTube📧 Contact: mpcmarkets.com.au#MorningCall #USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #CrudeOil #ASX200 #FedRateHike #AustralianCPI #Micron #BHP #EnergyStocks #PortfolioHedge #MPCMarkets

Chip stocks are soaring! Join Finn Judell for a comprehensive market breakdown covering today's biggest moves:Key Topics:🔹 Semiconductor Surge - Intel surges 10.4-10.6% following Apple's strategic chip deal announcement🔹 Record Highs - SOX index hits new record, S&P 500 +1.1%, NASDAQ +1.9%🔹 Geopolitical Shifts - US-Iran peace deal establishes 60-day toll halt on Strait of Hormuz🔹 Federal Reserve - Hawkish commentary as 9 of 18 Fed members pencil in rate hikes🔹 Global Markets - ASX up 3.22%, Nikkei strong, mixed performance in China🔹 Commodity Update - Precious metals under pressure, uranium continues rally, crude down 9.78%🔹 Crypto Markets - Bitcoin struggles to break $70k range despite broader altcoin strength🔹 SaaS Opportunity - Deep dive into the "SaaSpocalypse" and AI's impact on software valuationsQuick Links:Learn more about SaaS valuations in our webinar: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/ai-saas-survivors/Stay sharp in volatile markets — watch for hawkish Fed signals and continued chip sector momentum.#Markets #StockMarket #Investing #Bitcoin #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #TechStocks #SaaS #FederalReserve

The Warsh era at the Federal Reserve began with a decisive hawkish tilt — rates were held at 3.50–3.75% but updated projections show nine of 18 officials expect at least one hike this year, with the median dot shifting from a cut to a hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, and the Dow slipped 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 earlier in the session. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 basis points to 4.216%, their highest since February 2025, while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%. Gold was hit hard, falling 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the stronger dollar — up 0.9% to 100.47 — weighed on non-yielding assets. Oil held relatively steady, with Brent and WTI settling up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively as Strait of Hormuz reopening expectations offset the risk-off mood. ASX futures fell 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892, with investors bracing for the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank rate decisions today.Key Takeaways01S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, Nasdaq 100 down 1%, Dow down 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 — sharp late-session selloff on hawkish Fed.02New Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75% but nine of 18 officials now project a hike this year — money markets price 72% chance of a hike by October.03Brent and WTI settled up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively; gold tumbled 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the surging dollar crushed non-yielding assets.04Two-year Treasury yields spiked 17bp to 4.216% — highest since February 2025 — while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%; dollar index up 0.9% to 100.47.05SpaceX fell for the first time post-IPO after a three-day rally of nearly 50%; market cap briefly topped Amazon and Microsoft to become fourth-largest US listed company near $3 trillion.06ASX futures down 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892; AUD under pressure from surging USD; Bank of England, SNB and Norges Bank rate decisions due today.

The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time ever, but beneath the surface a fierce rotation out of tech and into financials, industrials and real estate tells a different story. Mark Gardner breaks down why elevated put premiums on chip stocks and extreme price-to-sales ratios echo the 2021–22 software selloff, and what that means for portfolios positioned at the top of this range.Oil has crashed below $80 for the first time since March as markets front-run Friday's formal U.S.–Iran MoU signing in Switzerland — but with strategic reserves drained globally and demand still climbing, the pullback may be getting ahead of itself.SpaceX surged past Amazon to become the fifth-largest company in the world at $2.65 trillion, cemented a $60 billion deal for AI coding startup Cursor, and now faces a NASDAQ index inclusion that could trigger rebalance selling across the broader market. Mark explains the five key dates every SpaceX investor needs to watch.Plus: the RBA held rates at 4.35% but Bullock isn't ruling out more hikes, Flight Centre slashed guidance on Middle East disruption, and Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference looms tomorrow morning AEST.Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube — search MPC Markets or MPC Morning Call. Watch our webinars on demand at mpcmarkets.com.au.

The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension — not a full peace deal, but enough to send oil plunging to $81 and equities surging to record highs. Mark Gardner breaks down what it actually means for markets, why only one ship has been brave enough to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the insurance companies and ship captains will believe Trump's Friday reopening timeline.In today's episode:0:00 — Iran MoU signed: what it really is (and isn't)— S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +3.1% (best day since March), Dow record close— Oil crashes to 3-month lows: WTI $81.49, Brent $83.74— SpaceX surges another 20% to $192 — greenshoe takes IPO to $85.7B— AMD Ryzen AI Max: first chip to run bi-parameter AI models on a single piece of silicon— Nvidia raises $25B in bonds ($85B in orders) — AI CapEx now approaching US COVID stimulus levels— Chevron and energy stocks oversold? Value emerging in traditional oil names— Gold +2.4% to $4,320 as macro backdrop shifts— ASX set to open down ~100 points despite Wall Street rally (SPY rollover dynamics)— RBA rate decision today — expected to hold— Fed decision tomorrow under new Chair Kevin Warsh — Iran deal gives him breathing room— AI infrastructure build-out in historical context: railroads, fibre, interstate highways— MoU signing in Switzerland on Friday — the real testWhat is the US-Iran peace deal?The US and Iran signed an electronic memorandum of understanding confirming a 60-day ceasefire extension. The Strait of Hormuz is set to fully reopen by Friday after mine-clearing operations. This is not a final peace deal — nuclear discussions and sanctions are deferred to follow-up negotiations over 60 days. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.How does the Iran deal affect oil prices?WTI crude fell 4% to $81.49 and Brent dropped 4.2% to $83.74 — both three-month lows. However, shipping operators remain cautious about resuming Hormuz transit. Naval experts estimate mine-clearing could take a month, and insurance companies have yet to adjust their risk assessments for the strait.How does the Iran deal affect interest rates?The oil price decline eases inflation pressure, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate hikes. Market pricing has shifted from two hikes by early 2027 to potentially just one by December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now has room to adopt a more dovish tone at Wednesday's press conference.🔔 Subscribe for daily market updates before the ASX opens.📊 On-demand webinar: Software Survivors sequel — scan the QR code or visit mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast🎧 Listen on your favourite platform:🟢 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1igBks6n4hC3Uo8TnTcFaU🍎 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mpc-markets-morning-call/id1822404938▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLonxssa1GsVJ1aUFFE0Nc4IMGmJd3kFaw⚠️ For professional use only. Not financial advice.#MorningCall #MPCMarkets #ASX #StockMarket #IranDeal #OilPrices #SpaceX #Nvidia #FederalReserve #RBA

SpaceX, SpaceX, SpaceX — and an Iran deal. The world's largest IPO closed up 19.2% at $160.95, valuing SpaceX at $2.1 trillion and making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. But overnight the bigger story landed: Pakistan's PM confirmed the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal, with a signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. Oil crashed to $81 WTI on futures as markets priced in the Strait of Hormuz reopening. We break down the SpaceX lockup schedule and when insiders can sell, the draft MoU terms including $25B in unfrozen Iranian assets, what the Iran deal really means for inflation and the Fed, and why Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting just got a lot easier. Plus: Intel double-upgraded by BofA, Adobe's CFO exit, Anthropic's AI export restrictions, and Australia's Senate CGT inquiry kicking off today. ASX set for a strong open — energy the exception.

Stocks Jump as Trump Announces 39th Peace Deal | MPC Markets Morning Call — 12 June 2026Wall Street surges as Trump declares an Iran peace deal — again. The S&P 500 rips 1.7%, the NASDAQ jumps 2.5%, and the SOX chip index rockets 7%. But is this the real deal, or just the 39th time markets have bought the same headline?In today's episode, Mark Gardner covers:— Why the "boy who cried wolf" keeps working on Wall Street— SpaceX IPO: the biggest listing in history launches tonight at ~1pm New York time— PPI inflation hits 3.5-year highs — and nobody cares— ECB hikes rates — also ignored— Shiller CAPE at 41.5x: top 1% of valuations since 1881— S&P price-to-sales 60% above the dot-com bubble peak— Why smart money is getting cashed up for the midterm pullback— ASX outlook: SPI futures +150 points, REA Group under pressure— Calendar: RBA Tuesday, FOMC Wednesday, Kevin Warsh's first press conferenceMark's take: Don't fight the momentum, don't get frustrated — but don't get suckered in at these levels either. Midterm years have seen a minimum 10% drawdown in every single cycle for 86 years straight. Build your shopping list now.Subscribe for daily market updates before the ASX opens — Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or right here on YouTube.🔗 Software Survivors 2.0 Webinar: mpcmarkets.com.au🔗 Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast — Sp

Wall Street got burned overnight — the hot AI bull market finally met hotter inflation. US CPI hit 4.2% YoY (highest since April 2023), Trump struck Iran for a second day in a row, oil surged, and the chip sector cratered. SOX down 3.6%; Nvidia −3.8%; Super Micro −28%. Gold was smacked. And the SpaceX IPO is coming Friday — Mark gives his honest take on valuation.In today's Morning Call, Mark covers:📉 S&P 500 −1.6% | Nasdaq −2% | Dow −1.9%🔥 CPI at 4.2% — energy up 23.5% YoY, gasoline up 40.5%💥 Trump strikes Iran again — peace deal stalling, Hormuz still disrupted🚀 SpaceX IPO: 4x oversubscribed, $75bn raise — buy or avoid?🏠 Westpac: investor loan apps −20% in 3 weeks on negative gearing reforms📊 ASX futures down 65pts — banks, gold miners, and cyclicals all under pressure⚠️ Mark's call: high cash is the smartest position right nowAlso: Oracle capex miss, Amazon kills trucking stocks, BOJ governor hospitalised, and why the equity market is the drunk friend at the party who hasn't gone home yet.🎙️ Subscribe: Spotify | Apple Podcasts | YouTube👉 Bulls vs Bears weekend edition also available on all platforms.Not financial advice. For professional use only.

The semiconductor rally that powered Wall Street to record highs has stalled. Apple fell 3.6% on a tepid WWDC, the SOX index dropped 2%, and the Nasdaq is down nearly 5% in five days. The US launched retaliatory strikes on Iran after an Apache helicopter was downed over the Strait of Hormuz — yet oil barely moved. Tonight's US CPI (consensus 4.2%) sets the scene for next week's Fed meeting.In this episode:→ Why the entire S&P rally since February is AI stocks alone→ Sector rotation into defensives — tech's 10-week run breaks→ Oil's bizarre non-reaction to US-Iran escalation→ SpaceX at 100x sales — "the dumbest thing I've ever heard"→ Gold goes negative for 2026 despite spiralling US debt→ CPI tonight, Oracle Thursday, Adobe Friday→ Sigma Healthcare eyeing $14B bid for UK BootsKey levels: S&P 7,385 (–0.3%) | Nasdaq 25,679 (–1%) | WTI $88.49 | Gold $4,252 | ASX Futures 8,624 (+0.2%)🎙️ Bulls vs Bears — our weekly Friday podcast with Mark, Kai & Jonathan. Find it on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Freakout Friday, Mild Rebound Monday — MPC Markets Morning Call | 9 June 2026Wall Street's worst day of 2026 was followed by a cautious rebound. Here's what happened overnight and what it means for Australian investors today.Friday's blowout May jobs report (172k vs 85k expected) sent the Nasdaq down 4.2% and the S&P 500 down 2.6%, snapping a nine-week winning streak. Chip stocks lost over $1 trillion in a single session. Then on Monday, dip buyers returned — the SOX rallied 5.6%, Intel surged 11.2% on a Google AI chip deal, and the S&P clawed back 0.3%. But breadth was razor-thin: only three of eleven sectors closed higher.In this episode we cover:— The jobs data that fully repriced a Fed rate hike by December— Iran and Israel halting strikes after a weekend escalation — and why oil is still at $94— The incoming IPO flood: SpaceX ($75B on Friday), OpenAI's confidential filing, and Meta eyeing a stock offering— Intel, Marvell, and the AI chip trade revival— What CPI on Wednesday means for the rate path— ASX outlook after the long weekend — futures down 93 pointsASX200 futures are pointing to a gap lower of around 1.1% as we return from the Queen's Birthday break. The big test this week: U.S. CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and SpaceX's record-breaking IPO on Friday.Subscribe for daily market updates before the ASX opens.Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1igBks6n4hC3Uo8TnTcFaU?si=38b6c83b60574e97Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mpc-markets-morning-call/id1822404938Website: https://mpcmarkets.com.au#ASX #ASX200 #MorningCall #MarketUpdate #StockMarket #WallStreet #SP500 #Nasdaq #FedRateHike #USJobs #NonFarmPayrolls #IranIsrael #OilPrices #SpaceXIPO #OpenAI #AIStocks #Semiconductors #ChipStocks #Intel #AustralianInvestor #MPCMarkets #Investing2026 #USInflation #CPI #TreasuryYields

Wall Street delivered a tale of two markets overnight as the Dow surged to a record high while the Nasdaq slipped on a Broadcom-led semiconductor selloff. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,584.82, with about 360 of its constituents advancing as nine of 11 sectors closed higher — financials led the charge at +2.7% and healthcare added 3%. A renewed Israel–Lebanon ceasefire bolstered hopes for eventual US–Iran peace, sending Brent crude down 2.7% to $95.21 and WTI 3.1% lower to $93.08. Spot gold climbed 1% to $4,478.21 as investors hedged geopolitical uncertainty. Blackstone capped withdrawals from its $79 billion flagship private credit fund after redemption requests hit 10% of shares, adding to a growing pattern of stress in the alternatives space. ASX 200 futures are up 48 points to 8,739, with all eyes on the US May non-farm payrolls report tonight.The Dow rose 1.7% to a record 51,562.30, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 7,584.82, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% as Broadcom’s 12.6% plunge dragged chipmakers lower.An Israel–Lebanon ceasefire renewal bolstered US–Iran peace hopes, though Hezbollah rejected the deal and fighting continued in southern Lebanon.WTI crude fell 3.1% to $93.08 and Brent dropped 2.7% to $95.21 on ceasefire optimism, while Citi maintained a $110 Q3 Brent forecast citing critically low Asian inventories.The 10-year Treasury yield eased 2bp to 4.47% as the curve steepened, with Bitcoin tumbling to a 4-month low near $61,000 after Strategy’s first sale since 2022.Blackstone capped withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund at 5% after investors sought to pull 10% of shares, the latest sign of stress in alternatives.ASX 200 futures are up 48 points (+0.6%) to 8,739, with the AUD steady and the RBA’s Bullock and Hauser both speaking today.Key Takeaways010203040506

The S&P 500's nine-day winning streak finally snaps — but is this the pullback we've been waiting for, or just a blip?In today's morning call, Jonathan Takadani breaks down the overnight session and what it means for Australian investors:S&P 500 down 0.9%, Dow off 1.2% — first red day in nine sessionsTech sector leads losses, down 1.5%, while energy is the lone green sectorCrude oil still range-bound around $93 — Chevron CEO flagging July as a danger period for suppliesWoodside hitting $30 and looking attractive on the dipGold & Silver at the lower end of range — still bullish on precious metals long-termCopper & BHP pulling back after fresh record highsLithium names (PLS, Liontown, MIN) seeing their first pullback after a strong runCrowdStrike & Palo Alto — muted post-earnings reaction raises the question: is this the top?Micron & ASML bucking the trend with new highsASX choppy around 8,700 — banks key to watch, with CBA finding resistance at $165Iran deal uncertainty adding to the macro noise. Jonathan also flags Northern Star with activist investor interest emerging.📅 Tune in each morning for charts, key levels, and what's moving markets.

Sign up for the Software Survivors 2.0 Webinar: https://mpcinvest.co/SaaScentionWelcome to today's episode of The Morning Report with your host, Finn Judell!It’s been a choppy and mixed session across the markets. While the S&P 500 managed a technical all-time high (up 0.1%) and the Dow gained 0.5%, the big story today is in the crypto and software sectors. Bitcoin has taken a notable tumble following a major strategy shift from MicroStrategy—decoupling from its recent tight correlation with the S&P. Is this a historic support buy signal, or is there more volatility ahead?We also dive deep into the massive 400% gains realized in our "Software Survivor Strategy," upcoming macro data, and major corporate earnings to watch this week.

🚨 Morning Markets Update: Software Stocks Are ON FIRE! 🔥Apologies for the technical issues, but we’re diving straight into this red-hot market! The software sector has absolutely exploded over the past month, with massive gains across the board. Is this the comeback we’ve all been waiting for?In today’s episode:• NVIDIA & Jensen Huang momentum + major software winners (ServiceNow +50%, Palo Alto +65-72%, CrowdStrike, DataDog +100%, Salesforce, Microsoft & more)• Aussie tech stocks heating up — WiseTech, Technology One, Life360, SiteMinder and big laggards like Pro Medicus yet to run• Why the “Software is Dead” narrative was completely wrong• US market streak analysis: 10-week winning streak + 8-day positive run (extremely rare)• Inflation warnings: ISM Prices Paid surging, US gas prices heading over $4 this summer• Trump/Iran noise, upcoming Payrolls, Palo Alto & CrowdStrike earnings• Software Survivors Webinar Part 2 coming soon!Are we due for a breather or will the momentum continue? We break down the technicals and what to watch this week.---🔔 Subscribe for daily market insights and hit the notification bell!📆 Software Survivors Webinar Part 2 coming in the next 1-2 weeks. Follow for more morning market calls, stock analysis, and tech sector updates.#StockMarket #SoftwareStocks #NVIDIA #ASX #TechStocks #MarketUpdate #PaloAlto #CrowdStrike #WiseTech

US Stock Market Hits Fresh Records as AI FrenzyIntensifies | Market RecapUS equities surged to new all-time highs on Friday, markingthe S&P 500’s ninth straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 closed at7,581.65, the Dow at 51,032.34, and the Nasdaq at 26,972.62 as traders bet onan imminent US–Iran ceasefire extension while the AI infrastructure trade hitfever pitch.In this episode, we break down the key market movers,geopolitical developments, oil price collapse, and what’s ahead for the ASX 200this week.Key Market Highlights: What’s Moving Markets: Australia Market Preview:SPI futures point the ASX 200 13 points (0.1%) lowerat the open. Focus this week on three RBA appearances (including GovernorBullock) and Q1 GDP on Wednesday.Timestamps: 00:00 – Market Open Recap 02:15 – S&P500, Dow & Nasdaq Record Closes 04:40 – AI Infrastructure Boom: Dell,Snowflake, Okta 07:25 – Oil Crash: Brent & WTI Update 09:50 – Geopolitics:US–Iran Ceasefire Latest 12:10 – ASX 200 & RBA OutlookIf you're trading US or Australian markets, want dailymarket insights, or follow the AI megatrend, make sure to subscribe andhit the notification bell.What are your thoughts on the AI trade and oil prices?Drop a comment below.

🚨 MARKET RECAP: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Smash ALL-TIME HIGHS Despite Iran War Tensions 🚨US stocks just delivered one of the strongest days of 2026 — all three major indexes closed at record highs simultaneously for the first time in years. S&P 500 +0.6% to 7,563, Nasdaq +0.9% to 26,917, and the Dow also pushed higher. In just the past two months the S&P is up 20% and Nasdaq up 30% as AI euphoria continues.But behind the rally? A tentative 60-day US-Iran ceasefire MoU that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the global oil chokehold. Trump hasn’t signed yet, but the market is pricing in relief. Brent crude still closed +1.1% at $93.28 after spiking to $96, while WTI hit a 6-week low on deal optimism.We break down:Full details on the Iran ceasefire — Hormuz shipping, mine removal, nuclear talks, and why Trump’s “red lines” still matterOvernight clashes: ballistic missile at Kuwait, drones near Hormuz, warning shots at tankersIsrael ramps up strikes on Lebanon — does this kill the deal?Why Wall Street is ignoring Asia/Europe selloffsEARNINGS SEASON HEATS UPDell +19% after crushing AI server forecastSnowflake, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Agilent all surge on strong guidanceAnthropic raises $65B at $965B valuation (now bigger than OpenAI) with Google & Amazon backing — IPO coming Fall 2026?Plus Caesars $5.7B takeover and the regulator pause on the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern mega-mergerSTAGFLATION WARNINGApril PCE jumps to +3.8% y/y (highest since May 2023)Q1 GDP revised sharply lower to just 1.6%US savings rate collapses to 2.6% — near 18-year lowsNew Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a nightmare: rising inflation + slowing growth = no rate cuts in sightAUSTRALIA FOCUSASX 200 futures rebound +0.6% after Thursday’s $45B wipeoutBHP’s secret diesel truck purchases exposed — A$500M extra annual fuel costWebjet CEO exit, IAG lawsuit settlement, Tourism Holdings bid drama & Guzman y Gomez dumps US expansion (stock +21%)WHAT’S NEXTTrump’s decision on the Iran deal is the biggest market catalyst in weeks. Plus Germany CPI, US Chicago PMI, Fed speakers, and Japan data.Timestamps:0:00 – US Record Highs & Big Picture3:45 – Iran Ceasefire MoU: What We Know9:20 – Oil Price Reaction & Hormuz Impact13:10 – Earnings Winners & Losers (Dell, Snowflake, Anthropic)18:40 – Stagflation Reality Check (PCE, GDP, Savings Rate)23:15 – ASX 200, BHP, Aussie Corporate News27:50 – What’s Ahead This Weekend🎙️ Daily market wrap with no fluff — macro, geopolitics, earnings & Aussie stocks in plain English.👉 Like & Subscribe for daily market recaps every trading day. Drop your biggest question about the Iran deal or AI stocks below 👇#StockMarketToday #SP500 #Nasdaq #IranCeasefire #OilPrices #AIStocks #PCEInflation #Stagflation #ASX200 #BHP #DellEarnings #Anthropic #MarketRecap #Trading2026

Wall Street kicked off the holiday-shortened week with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% to a record close of 7,519.47, driven by a blistering rally in semiconductors after UBS tripled its Micron Technology price target to a Street-high $1,625. The Nasdaq 100 surged 1.8% to a record of its own, while the Dow slipped 0.2% as energy and healthcare names dragged. Brent crude rebounded 3.5% to $99.53 after Monday’s 7% plunge, though WTI fell 2.9% to $93.79 amid mixed signals on U.S.–Iran negotiations. Treasury yields fell broadly — the 10-year declining 7 bps to 4.49% — as inflation concerns eased modestly. Spot gold slipped 1.4% to $4,507.53 as the risk-on mood drew capital away from havens. For Australia, ASX 200 futures are pointing down just 3 points to 8,677, with all eyes on the April CPI print due today and an RBA speech from Carolyn Hewson.

Wall Street closed out an eighth consecutive winning week — its longest since December 2023 — with the Dow Jones Industrial Average printing a fresh all-time high at 50,579.70. Optimism around U.S.–Iran peace talks and a blowout AI earnings season offset a bond market sell-off that drove the 30-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since 2007. ASX futures pointed 0.7% lower before Trump’s weekend comments suggesting a deal had been “largely negotiated,” though key sticking points remain unresolved.

Wall Street climbed to fresh highs Thursday as hopes for a US–Iran peace deal drove a sharp pull-back in oil prices and lifted sentiment across global markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high of 50,285.66 — its first record since early February — while the S&P 500 added 0.2% to 7,446.05 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% to 26,293.10. Reports of a near-finalised peace draft sent WTI crude to a two-week low near $96, even as conflicting signals over Iran’s uranium stockpile and proposed Hormuz tolls kept negotiations unresolved heading into the weekend. The ASX is expected to open higher on Friday, tracking overnight gains.

Wall Street surged on Wednesday as Trump said Iran talks were in the “final stages,” sending oil plunging 5.5% and lifting both stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% to 7,432.24, the Dow reclaimed 50,000, and the SOX index leapt 4.5%. After hours, Nvidia beat on revenue ($81.62B vs $78.86B est), guided Q2 to $91B (vs $87B est), announced an $80 billion buyback and raised its dividend to $0.25. Fed minutes showed a majority of officials warned hikes “would likely become appropriate” if inflation persists. SpaceX filed for its Nasdaq IPO. Anthropic’s revenue is projected to more than double to $10.9B in Q2 with its first operating profit. ASX 200 futures +1.2%.

📉 Wall Street tumbled overnight as 30-year US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007, with inflation fears from the Iran war gripping markets ahead of Nvidia's blockbuster earnings tonight. We break down the bond market shock, the brutal sell-off in precious metals, and what to watch from Nvidia's Q1 FY27 print.In today's Morning Call:🔻 Wall Street sell-off — tech and financials hit hardest (GOOGL -2.34%, MS -4.57%, AMZN -2.08%)📈 30-year UST yield flirting with 5.20% — highest since 2007⚡ 2-year yield at 4.11% sitting well above the 3.63% Fed Funds rate🎯 Futures now pricing greater than 50% chance of a Fed rate hike this year under new Chair Kevin Warsh🛢️ Oil -0.8% on US–Iran diplomacy progress, but inflation premium remains embedded🥇 Precious metals smashed — Gold -1%, Silver and Platinum both -4%💵 USD strength on widening yield differentials, pressuring the AUD🤖 Nvidia earnings preview — $79.2B consensus revenue, BofA expects 2–4% beat, $320 PT🏆 Strong Buy 15 out of 15 analyst rating heading into the print📅 Week ahead: AU jobs data Thursday, FOMC Minutes, Walmart & Target earningsThe ASX is set to open lower on the Wall Street lead, with all eyes on Nvidia after the US close. A beat could stabilise sentiment — a miss into this bond-yield backdrop would amplify the risk-off mood meaningfully.

The S&P 500 fell 1.24% to 7,408.50, the Nasdaq dropped 1.54% to 26,225.15, and the Dow slid 1.07% to 49,526.17 — the biggest selloff since March as a global bond rout overwhelmed the AI rally. Despite Friday’s decline, the S&P 500 posted its seventh consecutive weekly gain. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.5% to its highest since May 2025, Japan’s 30-year yield hit 4% (first since 1999), and UK 30-year gilts soared above 5.8% (28-year high). The SOX semiconductor index fell 4%, with Nvidia −4.4%, AMD −5.7%, and Intel −6.2%. WTI rose 4% to above $105 and Brent topped $109 as combative comments from Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister raised doubts the ceasefire would hold. A drone attack sparked a fire at a UAE nuclear plant. Trump posted: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking — TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Iran’s Mehr news agency said the US offered “no tangible concessions.” The Trump–Xi summit concluded with few tangible results, though China agreed to cut some levies. Powell’s term ended Friday — Warsh is now Fed chair. Fed rate-hike odds for December jumped to nearly 40% from 13.6% a week ago. G7 finance chiefs meet in Paris Monday–Tuesday to discuss the bond selloff and global imbalances. Nvidia reports Wednesday.

The S&P 500 surged above 7,500 for the first time on Thursday as Trump hailed “extremely positive and constructive” talks with Xi, the US cleared Nvidia H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms, Cisco jumped 13% to a record, and Cerebras soared 68% in the year’s largest IPO. The Dow closed at 50,063 — just 0.3% from its all-time high. China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets. Retail sales rose 0.5% but were propped up by a 21.2% surge in gasoline station spending. Oil held near $106 Brent. Breadth improved with advancers leading decliners. Applied Materials gave strong guidance after hours.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record 7,444.04 and the Nasdaq surged 1.2% to 26,402.34, both record closes, while the Dow slipped 0.1% to 49,693.20. The rally was extraordinarily narrow — Jones Trading noted that Google, Nvidia, Apple and Tesla accounted for 100% of the S&P 500’s gain, with the JT20 megacap index up 1.5% while breadth was negative. Six of the Magnificent Seven gained 1.4%–3.9%. PPI was a shocker: headline +1.4% monthly (largest since March 2022), +6.0% annually (largest since December 2022), far above estimates of +0.5% and +4.9%. Energy prices surged 7.8% with gasoline +15.6%. However, analysts noted the PCE-relevant PPI components were surprisingly benign. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair 54–45 — the slimmest margin ever — replacing Powell whose term ends Friday. Boston Fed’s Collins said rate hikes could be needed if inflation persists. Trump landed in Beijing with Jensen Huang, Elon Musk and Tim Cook for the two-day summit with Xi. Brent fell 1.8% to $105.87. The 10-year yield was little changed at 4.467% after testing 4.5%. A 30-year auction was weak. Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000. Ford surged 13.2%. Alibaba jumped 8% on cloud/AI growth. OpenAI floated a global AI governance body modelled on the IAEA.

The rally finally hit a wall on Tuesday as a hotter-than-expected CPI print and a 3% plunge in chipmakers dragged the S&P 500 from its record, while oil surged past $102 on the continued Iran impasse. Headline CPI hit 3.8% year-on-year — the fastest since May 2023 — with core at 2.8%, both above estimates, boosting bets on a Fed rate hike in 2027. The SOX semiconductor index suffered its biggest intraday drop in over a year (−6.8%) before recovering to close −3%. Trump departed for Beijing saying trade, not Iran, would be the priority with Xi. Anthropic is raising $30 billion at a $900 billion+ valuation. The Australian budget confirmed trust tax at 30% from July 2028 and more protective CGT grandfathering than feared.

US equities finished the week at fresh records, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8% on Friday to cap a sixth straight weekly advance — the longest since 2024. The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.3% and the SOX semiconductor index gained 11% for the week, powered by Intel (+14% on a preliminary Apple chip-making deal) and broad AI momentum. US payrolls rose for a second consecutive month in April, the first back-to-back increase in nearly a year, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. However, consumer sentiment slumped to a fresh record low of 48.2 in early May. Brent settled at $101.29 (+1.2% on the day) but fell for the week as deal hopes swirled. Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s counter-proposal as “totally unacceptable” after Tehran refused to dismantle nuclear facilities or suspend enrichment for 20 years. Netanyahu said the war is “not over” and urged the US to enter Iran and “take out” its uranium. Drones struck a cargo vessel in Qatari waters, and both the UAE and Kuwait intercepted hostile drones. Saudi Aramco warned it would take “several months” to normalise supply even if Hormuz reopens immediately. The Australian budget on Tuesday will reveal negative gearing restrictions, CGT indexation changes affecting all asset classes, and a 30% minimum trust tax. Trump–Xi summit May 14–15. ASX focus: CPI, Cisco, Applied Materials, and the budget.

Wednesday’s euphoria evaporated on Thursday as doubts resurfaced over the US–Iran peace proposal. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,335.66, the Dow dropped 0.6%, and oil whipsawed wildly — WTI briefly dipped below $90 before recovering to $95.47 as Iran’s state TV reported the US attacked an Iranian tanker and was “hit back by missiles.” An Iranian official called the US peace plan an “unrealistic” wish list, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait quietly lifted restrictions on US military use of their bases. A $7 billion insider trading scandal in oil markets emerged. US job cuts surged 38% in April with tech leading layoffs. ASX 200 futures are down 152 points, or 1.7%.

Wall Street surged to fresh records on Wednesday as the US presented Iran with a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, sending oil tumbling nearly 8% and risk appetite roaring back. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 7,363.68, the Nasdaq soared 2% to 25,838.94, and AMD’s 18.6% surge led a broad AI chip rally. Trump said a deal has a “very good chance” of happening and paused Project Freedom after Iran’s IRGC signalled “safe passage” through Hormuz. Brent crashed 7.8% to $101.33 while gold jumped 3%. The VIX fell to its lowest since before the war. ASX futures point to a 1% gain.

The US-Iran conflict intensified overnight as Trump launched “Project Freedom” to escort vessels through Hormuz, triggering Iranian missile fire on US destroyers and a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil port. US Central Command said it successfully guided two American-flagged ships through the strait while repelling attacks and destroying small boats. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75 with all 11 sectors except energy in the red, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80. Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 while WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26. Bond yields spiked sharply — 10-year Treasuries +7bp to 4.44%, 30-year yields above 5% for the first time since July. Gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21. In a stunning escalation, China ordered its companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners, issuing an unprecedented blocking order ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800 billion for 2026 and $1.1 trillion for 2027. Q1 earnings growth has doubled to 27.8% from 14.4% at the start of April. ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to hike 25bp to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST.Key Takeaways01 The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80 as all sectors except energy declined, while KOSPI surged 5% in Asia and Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $80,000.02 Trump’s “Project Freedom” drew Iranian missile fire on US destroyers, a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub (three injuries), and US forces destroyed seven Iranian small boats — two US merchant ships transited the strait successfully.03 Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 and WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26, while 30-year Treasury yields breached 5% for the first time since July, 10-year yields rose 7bp to 4.44%, and gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21.04 China issued an unprecedented blocking order telling companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners including Hengli Petrochemical, escalating the US–China confrontation weeks before the Trump–Xi summit.05 Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800B for 2026 and $1.1T for 2027; Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth has nearly doubled to 27.8% — the highest since late 2021 — while Palantir guided for 71% full-year revenue growth.06 ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST, and Westpac results, AMD earnings and April US non-farm payrolls due this week.

US equities surged to close out April with the S&P 500’s best month since November 2020, gaining 10.4% to close above 7,200 for the first time. GDP data showed AI-driven business investment powering the economy through the Iran war headwinds, while Japan intervened in currency markets for the first time in two years, sending the yen surging 2.5%. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 7,210.24, the Dow jumped 1.6% to 49,651.95, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 24,892.31. After hours, Apple reported record revenue but shares dipped 0.7%. Oil retreated from a $126 intraday spike to settle at $105.35 WTI. The ECB and BOE both held rates steady.

A divided Federal Reserve held rates steady in what was Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, while Brent crude surged 7% toward $120 a barrel and four Mag 7 companies delivered a mixed earnings bag that rattled after-hours trading. The S&P 500 was flat at 7,136.52, the Nasdaq edged up 0.6%, but the Dow fell 0.6%. After the bell, Alphabet jumped 7% on blockbuster cloud growth, but Meta slid 7% after raising capex guidance to $125–$145 billion, Microsoft’s Azure growth barely met estimates at 39%, and Amazon fell 2.6% despite record profits as capex surged to $44.2 billion. Money markets abandoned rate-cut bets and began pricing in a possible 2027 hike. ASX 200 futures are down 53 points.

US equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday as a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed key user and revenue targets ignited a sell-off across the AI complex, just hours before five Magnificent Seven companies report earnings. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,138.80 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9% to 24,663.80 — its worst day in a month — while Brent crude surged to $111 for its seventh straight session of gains. In a seismic shift for energy markets, the UAE announced it is leaving OPEC effective 1 May. Goldman Sachs warned investors to brace for a near-term pullback as positioning is stretched and pension funds may sell more than $25 billion in equities. ASX 200 futures are down 37 points to 8,694, with Australian CPI due at 11:30am AEST.