MPC Markets Morning Call

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record 7,444.04 and the Nasdaq surged 1.2% to 26,402.34, both record closes, while the Dow slipped 0.1% to 49,693.20. The rally was extraordinarily narrow — Jones Trading noted that Google, Nvidia, Apple and Tesla accounted for 100% of the S&P 500’s gain, with the JT20 megacap index up 1.5% while breadth was negative. Six of the Magnificent Seven gained 1.4%–3.9%. PPI was a shocker: headline +1.4% monthly (largest since March 2022), +6.0% annually (largest since December 2022), far above estimates of +0.5% and +4.9%. Energy prices surged 7.8% with gasoline +15.6%. However, analysts noted the PCE-relevant PPI components were surprisingly benign. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair 54–45 — the slimmest margin ever — replacing Powell whose term ends Friday. Boston Fed’s Collins said rate hikes could be needed if inflation persists. Trump landed in Beijing with Jensen Huang, Elon Musk and Tim Cook for the two-day summit with Xi. Brent fell 1.8% to $105.87. The 10-year yield was little changed at 4.467% after testing 4.5%. A 30-year auction was weak. Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000. Ford surged 13.2%. Alibaba jumped 8% on cloud/AI growth. OpenAI floated a global AI governance body modelled on the IAEA.

The rally finally hit a wall on Tuesday as a hotter-than-expected CPI print and a 3% plunge in chipmakers dragged the S&P 500 from its record, while oil surged past $102 on the continued Iran impasse. Headline CPI hit 3.8% year-on-year — the fastest since May 2023 — with core at 2.8%, both above estimates, boosting bets on a Fed rate hike in 2027. The SOX semiconductor index suffered its biggest intraday drop in over a year (−6.8%) before recovering to close −3%. Trump departed for Beijing saying trade, not Iran, would be the priority with Xi. Anthropic is raising $30 billion at a $900 billion+ valuation. The Australian budget confirmed trust tax at 30% from July 2028 and more protective CGT grandfathering than feared.

US equities finished the week at fresh records, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8% on Friday to cap a sixth straight weekly advance — the longest since 2024. The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.3% and the SOX semiconductor index gained 11% for the week, powered by Intel (+14% on a preliminary Apple chip-making deal) and broad AI momentum. US payrolls rose for a second consecutive month in April, the first back-to-back increase in nearly a year, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. However, consumer sentiment slumped to a fresh record low of 48.2 in early May. Brent settled at $101.29 (+1.2% on the day) but fell for the week as deal hopes swirled. Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s counter-proposal as “totally unacceptable” after Tehran refused to dismantle nuclear facilities or suspend enrichment for 20 years. Netanyahu said the war is “not over” and urged the US to enter Iran and “take out” its uranium. Drones struck a cargo vessel in Qatari waters, and both the UAE and Kuwait intercepted hostile drones. Saudi Aramco warned it would take “several months” to normalise supply even if Hormuz reopens immediately. The Australian budget on Tuesday will reveal negative gearing restrictions, CGT indexation changes affecting all asset classes, and a 30% minimum trust tax. Trump–Xi summit May 14–15. ASX focus: CPI, Cisco, Applied Materials, and the budget.

Wednesday’s euphoria evaporated on Thursday as doubts resurfaced over the US–Iran peace proposal. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,335.66, the Dow dropped 0.6%, and oil whipsawed wildly — WTI briefly dipped below $90 before recovering to $95.47 as Iran’s state TV reported the US attacked an Iranian tanker and was “hit back by missiles.” An Iranian official called the US peace plan an “unrealistic” wish list, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait quietly lifted restrictions on US military use of their bases. A $7 billion insider trading scandal in oil markets emerged. US job cuts surged 38% in April with tech leading layoffs. ASX 200 futures are down 152 points, or 1.7%.

Wall Street surged to fresh records on Wednesday as the US presented Iran with a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, sending oil tumbling nearly 8% and risk appetite roaring back. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 7,363.68, the Nasdaq soared 2% to 25,838.94, and AMD’s 18.6% surge led a broad AI chip rally. Trump said a deal has a “very good chance” of happening and paused Project Freedom after Iran’s IRGC signalled “safe passage” through Hormuz. Brent crashed 7.8% to $101.33 while gold jumped 3%. The VIX fell to its lowest since before the war. ASX futures point to a 1% gain.

The US-Iran conflict intensified overnight as Trump launched “Project Freedom” to escort vessels through Hormuz, triggering Iranian missile fire on US destroyers and a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil port. US Central Command said it successfully guided two American-flagged ships through the strait while repelling attacks and destroying small boats. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75 with all 11 sectors except energy in the red, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80. Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 while WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26. Bond yields spiked sharply — 10-year Treasuries +7bp to 4.44%, 30-year yields above 5% for the first time since July. Gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21. In a stunning escalation, China ordered its companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners, issuing an unprecedented blocking order ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800 billion for 2026 and $1.1 trillion for 2027. Q1 earnings growth has doubled to 27.8% from 14.4% at the start of April. ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to hike 25bp to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST.Key Takeaways01 The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75, the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80 as all sectors except energy declined, while KOSPI surged 5% in Asia and Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $80,000.02 Trump’s “Project Freedom” drew Iranian missile fire on US destroyers, a drone strike on the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub (three injuries), and US forces destroyed seven Iranian small boats — two US merchant ships transited the strait successfully.03 Brent crude surged 5.4% to $114.03 and WTI jumped 3.3% to $105.26, while 30-year Treasury yields breached 5% for the first time since July, 10-year yields rose 7bp to 4.44%, and gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21.04 China issued an unprecedented blocking order telling companies to defy US sanctions on Iranian-linked refiners including Hengli Petrochemical, escalating the US–China confrontation weeks before the Trump–Xi summit.05 Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler AI capex forecasts to $800B for 2026 and $1.1T for 2027; Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth has nearly doubled to 27.8% — the highest since late 2021 — while Palantir guided for 71% full-year revenue growth.06 ASX 200 futures fell 70 points to 8,645, with the RBA expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike to 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST, and Westpac results, AMD earnings and April US non-farm payrolls due this week.

US equities surged to close out April with the S&P 500’s best month since November 2020, gaining 10.4% to close above 7,200 for the first time. GDP data showed AI-driven business investment powering the economy through the Iran war headwinds, while Japan intervened in currency markets for the first time in two years, sending the yen surging 2.5%. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 7,210.24, the Dow jumped 1.6% to 49,651.95, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 24,892.31. After hours, Apple reported record revenue but shares dipped 0.7%. Oil retreated from a $126 intraday spike to settle at $105.35 WTI. The ECB and BOE both held rates steady.

A divided Federal Reserve held rates steady in what was Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, while Brent crude surged 7% toward $120 a barrel and four Mag 7 companies delivered a mixed earnings bag that rattled after-hours trading. The S&P 500 was flat at 7,136.52, the Nasdaq edged up 0.6%, but the Dow fell 0.6%. After the bell, Alphabet jumped 7% on blockbuster cloud growth, but Meta slid 7% after raising capex guidance to $125–$145 billion, Microsoft’s Azure growth barely met estimates at 39%, and Amazon fell 2.6% despite record profits as capex surged to $44.2 billion. Money markets abandoned rate-cut bets and began pricing in a possible 2027 hike. ASX 200 futures are down 53 points.

US equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday as a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed key user and revenue targets ignited a sell-off across the AI complex, just hours before five Magnificent Seven companies report earnings. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,138.80 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9% to 24,663.80 — its worst day in a month — while Brent crude surged to $111 for its seventh straight session of gains. In a seismic shift for energy markets, the UAE announced it is leaving OPEC effective 1 May. Goldman Sachs warned investors to brace for a near-term pullback as positioning is stretched and pension funds may sell more than $25 billion in equities. ASX 200 futures are down 37 points to 8,694, with Australian CPI due at 11:30am AEST.

US equities held at record highs in subdued trading on Monday as investors braced for the most consequential week of the year — five Magnificent Seven earnings reports, a Fed meeting that may be Jerome Powell’s last as chair, and Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,173.89 and the Nasdaq edged up 0.2% to 24,887.10, both fresh records, while Brent crude surged 3% to above $108 a barrel for its sixth straight session of gains. Iran proposed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, with Trump convening his national security team to discuss. ASX 200 futures point to a 0.6% fall.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs on Friday, buoyed by Intel’s 23.7% surge and renewed hopes for US–Iran peace talks, but the weekend brought a sharp reversal in diplomacy as Trump cancelled his envoys’ trip to Pakistan and peace negotiations stalled. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 7,165.08, the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 24,836.60, and the SOX semiconductor index extended its record winning streak to 18 sessions. Brent crude settled at $106.15 as fewer than five ships crossed Hormuz in the past 24 hours against a pre-war daily average of roughly 130. A monster week lies ahead — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple all report, the Fed meets in what may be Jerome Powell’s last outing as chair, and Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data are due.

US equities pulled back from record territory on Thursday as an escalating naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz overwhelmed a solid earnings season. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.97 after touching an intraday record of 7,147.78, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 24,438.50 — its biggest decline in a month — and the Dow slipped 0.4% to 49,309.33. Trump ordered the Navy to fire on Iranian boats laying mines in the strait and declared the US had “total control” of Hormuz, while Axios reported Iran had deployed additional mines. Brent crude surged 4% to $106.00 a barrel, extending its weekly gains as Dated Brent physical prices climbed above $107. The SOX semiconductor index extended its record run to a 17th consecutive session of gains. After the closing bell, Intel soared 19% on AI-fuelled revenue guidance that crushed estimates, while Meta and Microsoft announced plans to cut or buy out up to 23,000 jobs to offset AI spending. ASX 200 futures slipped 4 points to 8,828, with the Australian dollar at US$0.7130.Key Takeaways01The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.97 after touching an intraday record at 7,147.78, the Nasdaq dropped 0.9% to 24,438.50, and the Dow slipped 0.4% to 49,309.33, with the SOX semiconductor index extending its winning streak to 17 days.02Trump ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and declared “total control” of the waterway, while Iran reportedly deployed additional mines and mediators scrambled to salvage peace talks.03Brent crude surged 4% to $106.00 a barrel — up for a fourth consecutive session — with WTI rising 0.8% to $96.60, as Hormuz disruptions keep physical markets signalling acute near-term supply tightness.04Texas Instruments surged 19.4% on strong guidance while Tesla fell 3.7% on $25B+ capex plans, IBM dropped 8.3% and ServiceNow cratered 17.7% as software stocks bore the brunt of AI-disruption fears.05Intel soared 19% after hours on AI-fuelled Q2 revenue guidance of $13.8–$14.8 billion versus the $13.07 billion estimate, while Meta and Microsoft announced cuts affecting up to 23,000 jobs to offset AI infrastructure spending.06ASX 200 futures slipped 4 points to 8,828, the Australian dollar held at US$0.7130, and Trump extended the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks, removing a key roadblock to broader Middle East negotiations.

US equities extended their remarkable April run on Wednesday as Trump’s decision to indefinitely extend the Iran ceasefire removed the immediate threat of a return to hostilities, lifting the S&P 500 1.1% to a record 7,137.90 and the Nasdaq 1.6% to 24,657.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7% to 49,490.03. Semiconductor stocks were again the standout, with the SOX index recording a 16th consecutive session of gains — the longest winning streak in the index’s history — driven by expectations of 57% sector revenue growth in 2026. Brent crude settled near $102 a barrel as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with Iran seizing two commercial vessels and firing on ships despite the ceasefire. Nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 results have beaten earnings estimates so far, with GE Vernova surging 13.75% after raising guidance and Tesla gaining 4.6% after-hours on a surprise positive free cash flow. ASX 200 futures fell 23 points to 8,855, with the Australian dollar steady at US$0.7159 and S&P Global’s preliminary April PMIs due at 9am AEST.Key Takeaways01 The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to a record 7,137.90, the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 24,657.57, and the Dow added 0.7% to 49,490.03, with the SOX semiconductor index recording its longest-ever 16-day winning streak.02 Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely after Pakistan’s mediation request, though Iran says it will not negotiate until the US naval blockade is lifted and has set no timeline for a proposal.03 Brent crude settled near $102 a barrel and WTI at $92.46 as Iran seized two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and fired on a third, keeping the waterway at a near-standstill.04 Q1 earnings are tracking 14% growth with nearly 80% of S&P 500 reporters beating estimates; GE Vernova surged 13.75%, Boeing rose 5.53%, and Tesla gained 4.6% after-hours on a surprise positive free cash flow.05 China’s support for Iran has clear limits — Beijing buys 90% of Iran’s oil exports but has avoided military backing, with Xi Jinping calling for Hormuz to reopen while balancing ties with Gulf rivals ahead of a Trump summit.06 ASX 200 futures fell 23 points to 8,855, the Australian dollar held at US$0.7159, and S&P Global preliminary April PMIs are due at 9am AEST with Fortescue, Santos and Woodside AGM on Thursday’s agenda.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.05, extending its retreat from record highs as VP Vance called off his trip to Pakistan and Iran refused to attend further negotiations. Oil surged above $100 intraday before Trump’s after-hours ceasefire extension knocked Brent back below $100 — WTI settled at $92.13 (+2.8%) and Brent near $95. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.31% as Warsh’s hawkish testimony — calling for a new inflation framework and “regime change” in policy conduct — crushed rate-cut expectations to just a 30% chance before January. Apple shed 2.5% on news Tim Cook will step down as CEO in September, replaced by hardware chief John Ternus. US retail sales surged 1.7% in March, with gasoline station receipts jumping 15.5% — masking weaker underlying demand. ASX 200 futures point to 8,915 (-63 pts / -0.70%), with Axios reporting Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is expected to respond to the latest proposals on Wednesday.The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.05, the Nasdaq slipped 0.6% to 24,259.96 and the Dow dropped 0.6% to 49,149.60 — a second straight decline from record highs, with 10 of 11 S&P sectors lower and only energy advancing.Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely after the bell, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” leadership, but maintained the Hormuz blockade; Vance’s Pakistan trip was called off after Iran refused to attend talks.WTI rose 2.8% to $92.13 and Brent settled near $95 after touching $100 intraday; spot gold fell 3.0% to $4,677.24 as the dollar strengthened and yields surged on Warsh’s hawkish testimony.Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh called for “regime change” at the central bank and a new inflation framework, sending the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.31% and cutting rate-cut odds to 30% before January.Apple fell 2.5% as Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO on September 1 in favour of hardware chief John Ternus; Amazon invested an additional $5 billion in Anthropic; Deutsche Telekom is weighing a full T-Mobile merger.ASX 200 futures fell 63 points to 8,915 (-0.70%); BHP, South32 and Paladin Energy report Wednesday; Axios says Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei expected to respond to proposals on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,110.22, snapping a five-day advance, as oil’s 5%+ surge weighed on sentiment. Brent crude settled above $95 at $95.02 (+5.1%) and WTI climbed to $88.58 (+5.6%) after Iran’s weekend re-closure of Hormuz and the US Navy’s seizure of the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska underscored the fragility of the truce. Trump declared it “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire, adding the strait would remain blockaded until a deal is signed. Citigroup warned Brent could reach $110 if Hormuz disruptions persist for another month. Kuwait declared a further force majeure on oil shipments, reflecting infrastructure damage so severe that full supply cannot resume even when the strait reopens. ASX 200 futures closed at 9,023 (+48 pts / +0.53%), with the open likely shaped by overnight oil moves and ceasefire-deadline risk.

Friday’s euphoric rally — which pushed the S&P 500 to a record 7,125.36 (+1.2%) and sent Brent crude tumbling 8.7% to $90.71 — is being unwound after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing the continued US naval blockade of its ports. Weekend futures show Brent crude surging 7.25% while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.01%. The US Navy seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska after firing on its engine room — the first major encounter of the week-old blockade. Iran has declared it will skip the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and warned that vessels approaching Hormuz “will be considered cooperation with the enemy.” At least 135 million barrels of crude remain trapped on tankers in the Persian Gulf. ASX 200 futures point to an 82-point gain at 9,056 based on Friday’s close, but the weekend Hormuz reversal and oil spike are expected to pressure the open sharply lower.Key Takeaways01 The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,125.36 (+1.2%), the Nasdaq hit 24,468.48 (+1.5%) and the Dow surged to 49,447.92 (+1.8%) on Friday, capping an 11.9% three-week rally — but weekend futures show the Nasdaq 100 down 1.01%.02 Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours of reopening it, with IRGC gunboats firing on commercial vessels and at least 13 oil tankers forced to turn back toward the Persian Gulf.03 Brent crude plunged 8.7% to $90.71 on Friday but weekend futures surged 7.25%, with at least 135 million barrels of crude stuck on tankers in the Gulf and the energy crunch far from resolved.04 The US Navy seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska after firing on its engine room — the first boarding of the week-old blockade — while Iran declared it has no plan to attend the next round of talks in Islamabad.05 Netflix slumped 9.7% on below-expectation revenue growth guidance and the departure of co-founder Reed Hastings, while travel stocks (Royal Caribbean, United Airlines, Carnival) led S&P 500 gainers on Hormuz optimism.06 ASX 200 futures closed Friday at 9,056 (+82 pts / +0.91%), but the weekend Hormuz reversal and oil spike are expected to weigh heavily on the open; the AUD led losses among risk-sensitive currencies in early Asian trading.

US equities edged to fresh record highs as optimism over a potential Iran peace deal kept markets buoyant, but gains were capped by warnings that a resolution could take six months. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to settle at 7,039.37, extending its remarkable run from the March lows. Brent crude surged more than 4% toward $99 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. SPI futures point to a flat open for the ASX on Friday.

Wall Street reached all-time record highs on Wednesday as investors priced in growing optimism for a peace deal and rotated aggressively back into technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.81, its first record close since January 27, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 24,016.02, eclipsing its previous October peak. The catalyst was twofold: a major rotation into software stocks — which had lagged for months on AI disruption fears — and diplomatic signals that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more negotiating time, with mediators working on compromises covering the nuclear program, Hormuz, and war compensation. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley completed the bank earnings sweep with record trading results, while the broader sector cut more than 5,000 jobs amid a push into AI efficiency. Oil was essentially flat — Brent at ~$95/barrel (+0.1%), WTI at $91.14 (-0.2%) — and gold fell 1% to $4,794 as risk appetite lifted. The AUD reached its highest close since June 2022, rising 0.7% to US71.8¢. The major ASX-specific risk this morning is an overnight fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery, representing approximately 10% of Australian fuel supply, with jet fuel and diesel production continuing at reduced levels. ASX 200 futures sit near-flat at 9,018 (-3pts).

Two months into the Iran war, Wall Street has decided to shrug. The S&P 500 closed at 6,967.38 on Tuesday — 1.3% above its pre-war level of February 27 and within 12 points of a fresh all-time record — as three tailwinds converged: a cooler-than-expected US PPI print, strong Q1 bank earnings, and renewed diplomatic signals from both Washington and Tehran. March PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month (vs 1.1% forecast) and core PPI gained just 0.1%, providing relief on the inflation front even as headline energy costs remain elevated. JPMorgan posted a record trading quarter with markets revenue up 20% to $11.6 billion, Citigroup recorded its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, and BlackRock pulled in $130 billion in net inflows. Oil fell sharply — Brent dropped ~4% to ~$95/barrel, WTI fell 7% to $92.14 — as the IEA warned the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since 2020. A second round of US–Iran talks is being arranged, with Trump telling the New York Post negotiations could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan. The ASX 200 is set for a positive open with futures at 9,047 (+0.50%), aided by Yancoal’s $2.5 billion acquisition of the Kestrel coal mine and Australia’s March employment data due Wednesday.

US equities staged a decisive recovery on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 1% at 6,887 to fully erase all losses sustained since the outbreak of the Iran war six weeks ago. President Donald Trump’s declaration that Iran “wants to make a deal” sparked the rally even as the US Navy enforced a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel before paring gains on talk of renewed negotiations. The ASX is set to open higher as risk appetite returns to global markets.

The “peace dividend” that drove global equities sharply higher last week has evaporated overnight after US–Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed following 21 hours of talks. President Trump has declared a full US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “effective immediately,” with CENTCOM confirming enforcement commences at 12am Tuesday AEST. The Australian dollar fell 1% in early Sydney trading as risk-sensitive currencies led losses, oil is expected to retrace last week’s decline, and the ASX faces a sharply lower open as the Hormuz war premium reasserts itself.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow +0.58% to 48,185.80 (now positive YTD), and the Nasdaq +0.83% to 22,822.42, marking the index’s seventh consecutive session of gains — its longest run since October.Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, boosting ceasefire credibility, though Iran’s new supreme leader signalled Hormuz will enter “a new stage” of management and US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad are set for Saturday.WTI crude settled near $99.21 (+5.1%) and Brent near $97.17 (+2.6%) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with Saudi Arabia’s production capacity cut by 600,000 bpd from attacks on energy facilities — roughly one-tenth of normal Saudi exports.February PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month to 3.0% year-on-year — above the Fed’s 2% target and pre-dating the oil shock — while Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualised growth, raising the prospect of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts.Carlyle Group’s $7 billion private credit fund capped redemptions at 5% after investors sought to withdraw 15.7% of shares, as AI disruption fears and software sector stress continue to roil private credit markets and the broader $1.8 trillion industry.ASX 200 futures are near flat at 9,002 (–1 point at 7:45am AEST); Atlassian fell 7.6% in New York and will weigh at the open, with China’s March CPI/PPI at 11:30am AEST and US CPI due tonight at 10:30pm AEST as key catalysts.

Key TakeawaysGlobal equities surged: the S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,783.48, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.9%, the Dow gained 2.8% to 47,910.79 (best day in a year), and the MSCI World Index climbed 3%.The US-Iran two-week ceasefire — agreed just 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline — triggered a classic “TACO Tuesday” relief rally, though Iran accused the US of violations within hours due to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon.Oil had its biggest single-session collapse in five years: WTI fell 15% to $96.06 a barrel and Brent fell 13% to around $95, though analysts warn prices are unlikely to return to sub-$70 pre-war levels quickly.Bond markets staged a partial recovery — 10-year Treasuries held at 4.29% and European yields fell sharply — but pre-war rate-cut bets are unlikely to return as Fed minutes revealed growing support for potential hikes.AI remained a powerful market theme: Goldman Sachs Asset Management identified semiconductors and cybersecurity as key “picks and shovels” plays, while Meta debuted its closed Muse Spark model and Anthropic restricted its Mythos AI due to cyberattack concerns.The ASX 200 futures pointed to a flat-to-lower open, down 22 points (0.2%) to 8,967 near 7am AEDT; no local data Thursday, with the key watch being US Core PCE inflation released at 10:30pm AEST.

Key TakeawaysUS equities reversed early losses to finish near flat — S&P 500 +0.1% to 6,617.74, Nasdaq +0.1% to 22,017.85, Dow -0.2% to 46,584.33 — as Pakistan’s ceasefire request sparked a late-session relief rally.Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif requested Trump extend the Iran Hormuz deadline by two weeks and urged all parties to observe a ceasefire, with Tehran said to be “positively reviewing” the proposal; Trump described the talks as “heated negotiations.”Brent crude fell 2.1% to $107.48 intraday before sliding further to $104.50 in post-settlement trade; WTI edged down 0.1% to $112.29; the EIA raised its 2026 average WTI forecast 22% to $96/bbl for the year.Broadcom surged more than 6% after inking a long-term AI chip supply agreement with Google through 2031, while UnitedHealth jumped over 9% and Humana advanced ~8% on a higher-than-expected Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2027.ASX SPI futures +0.2% to 8,775; AUD +0.8% among session’s biggest FX gainers ahead of today’s RBA policy decision, with Friday’s US CPI print the next key global data event.

Key Takeaways1. US equities extended their winning streak to four sessions: S&P 500 +0.45% to 6,612.02, Nasdaq Composite +0.54% to 21,996.34, Dow Jones +0.36% to 46,669.88, MSCI World +0.3%.2. Iran formally rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal brokered by Pakistan, issuing a 10-condition counter-demand; Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. EDT deadline for Hormuz reopening remains “final.”3. WTI crude rose 0.7% to $112.31/bbl — its highest close since June 2022 — while Brent crude settled above $109/bbl; gold fell 0.5% to $4,655.04/oz.4. US 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.34%; the Bloomberg Dollar Index slipped 0.1%; AUD and GBP were the strongest G10 FX performers overnight.5. Blue Owl Capital shares hit a record low of $8.45, capping eight straight months of losses as BDC redemption pressures intensify across the $1.8 trillion private credit market.6. ASX 200 futures point to a flat open at 8,614 (+5 pts, +0.05%); the AUD outperformed G10 peers overnight; S&P Global March PMI Composite due at 9am AEST.

US equities extended their two-day recovery with the S&P 500 adding 0.7% to 6,573.89 as Trump claimed Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran immediately rejected as “false and baseless.” WTI crude briefly broke below $100 for the first time since the war began, and Brent slipped to $101. Gold surged 2.1% to $4,765 as the de-escalation narrative held, while data showed US retail sales and manufacturing beat expectations in February. All eyes now turn to Trump’s prime-time address to the nation (midday Thursday AEDT), where he is expected to declare military success and signal a 2–3 week exit from the conflict. The ASX is pointed to a modest open of 8,728 (+0.2%), though analysts warn the late-week selloff pattern that has dogged markets since the war began still looms.

Tuesday’s market euphoria was driven by two converging headlines: Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the country has the “necessary will to end this war” with guarantees, and the WSJ reported Trump told aides he is willing to end military operations even if Hormuz remains closed. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8%, and the Dow rose 2.5% — the biggest day for all three since the war began on February 28. The NYSE Tick Index hit an all-time high of 2,329. Yet the scepticism is warranted: Iran’s stated conditions are largely recycled from early March, the IRGC announced it would target 18 US companies from April 1, and Brent crude settled at $103.97 — still more than double pre-war levels. Brent notched a record monthly gain of +43.8% for March, while WTI surged 52.6% for the month. Gold had its worst month since October 2008, down 11.3%, but rebounded 3.8% Tuesday on de-escalation hopes. US gasoline topped $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. The ASX is set to open sharply higher at 8,643 (+1.5%), with NAB data warning household fuel bills are surging 36% above February averages.Key Takeaways01 The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, the Nasdaq 100 added 3.4%, and the Dow gained 2.5% — the biggest single-session rally since May 2025 — as the NYSE Tick Index hit an all-time record of 2,329, reflecting extreme breadth of buying. Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors rose, led by tech and communications (+4%), semiconductors (+6%), and airlines (+5%).02 Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the country has the “necessary will to end this war” contingent on security guarantees; Trump told aides via WSJ he is willing to exit without reopening the Strait of Hormuz — but analysts call it recycled diplomacy, with the IRGC simultaneously threatening 18 US companies including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Tesla and Boeing.03 Oil fell on the peace headlines: WTI settled near $102.13 (-0.7%) and Brent at $103.97 (-$3.42) — but both benchmarks still closed Q1 at record monthly gains, with Brent +43.8% and WTI +52.6% for March. A Kuwaiti oil tanker (Al-Salmi) was set ablaze by an Iranian strike off Dubai during the session.04 Gold surged 3.8% to $4,684.45/oz on de-escalation hopes and position squaring, though gold still logged its worst monthly performance since October 2008, down 11.3% for March. Silver jumped 7.1% to $75.10/oz. The USD fell 0.6% to 99.96, snapping a five-session winning streak.05 US JOLTS data showed job openings fell more than expected in February and hiring dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years — pointing to a softening labour market before the Iran war shock fully flows through. Friday’s March payrolls report (consensus: +60,000 vs. –92,000 in February) will be the key data event of the week.06 ASX 200 futures are pointing to an open of 8,643, up 130 points (+1.5%). NAB warns that Australian household fuel spending surged 36% above February averages in March, with inflation expected to push back above 5% in the June quarter. AGL approved a $490m gas plant in WA; Goldman Sachs lifted its aluminium price forecast to $3,450/tonne for Q2.

The first quarter of 2026 closes with markets scarred by the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.33 on Monday, leaving it 8.7% below its record close, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.73% to 20,795.20 and the Dow eked out a 0.12% gain to 45,219.91, technically exiting correction territory. WTI crude rose 4.6% to $104.18 a barrel and Brent topped $115 intraday before settling near $114.22, putting Brent on track for a record monthly percentage gain. The quarter has been historic for energy markets — Brent is up 85% since January, its largest quarterly rise since 1990. Gold gave back some ground but remains elevated at $4,516.16/oz after its steepest monthly drop in almost 20 years. Powell’s “wait and see” stance trimmed wagers on Fed hikes, pushing US 10-year yields down nine basis points to 4.34%. ASX 200 futures point to a 0.13% open at 8,500, with the RBA releasing minutes from its March meeting at 11:30am AEDT today.Key Takeaways01 - The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.33, the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.73% to 20,795.20, and the Dow added 0.12% to 45,219.91 — Wall Street heads toward its worst quarter since 2022 with five of the Magnificent Seven now in bear market territory.02 - The Iran war entered week five with the Strait of Hormuz still closed; Trump threatened to destroy Iranian electricity plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, while Houthi militants entered the conflict over the weekend, raising the spectre of a second shipping choke point.03 - WTI crude rose 4.6% to $104.18 a barrel and Brent surged toward $115 intraday, putting the international benchmark on track for a record monthly percentage gain, as the Hormuz closure choked off roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.04 - US 10-year Treasury yields fell nine basis points to 4.34% after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are “well anchored beyond the short term,” though traders have fully priced out any Fed rate cuts in 2026.05 - The IMF warned that the Iran war represents a “global, yet asymmetric” shock — “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth” — with low-income economies most exposed through surging food and fertilizer prices.06 - ASX 200 futures are pointing to an open of 8,500, up 11 points (+0.13%); the AUD/USD is trading near 0.6844; and the RBA releases minutes from its March meeting at 11:30am AEDT today.

The Iran conflict entered a dangerous new phase over the weekend, with Houthi militants joining the fight, Israel striking Tehran, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations. The Dow Jones confirmed a correction on Friday — down more than 10% from its February peak — while the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to close its fifth straight losing week, its longest such streak since 2022. Brent crude settled at $112.57 and WTI at $99.64 as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with Iran now drafting legislation to formalise its control and toll collection over the waterway. Traditional portfolio defences have failed: bonds, gold, and crypto have all declined alongside equities in unison for four straight weeks. Private credit is adding to the stress, with Blue Owl and HPS reporting their worst monthly returns since 2022 and redemption gates now the industry norm. For Australia, ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing to a 65-point drop — 0.76% lower — as the Albanese government’s national cabinet convenes at 10am AEDT to discuss fuel rationing measures.Key Takeaways01 S&P 500 fell 1.67% for a fifth straight week of losses — its longest losing streak since 2022 — while the Dow confirmed a correction (down 10%+ from its February 10 record close) and the Nasdaq deepened into one.02 The Iran war entered week five with Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Iran striking Gulf aluminium producers and a US base in Saudi Arabia, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations targeting the Strait of Hormuz.03 Brent crude settled at $112.57 (+4.22%) and WTI at $99.64 (+5.4%) on Friday — up more than 70% year-to-date for WTI — as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and Iran drafted laws to codify toll collection on the waterway.04 Traditional diversification has broken down: bonds, gold, and crypto have all fallen alongside equities for four straight weeks, with the risk-parity ETF (RPAR) down 8% and Barclays’ Dainton warning markets are underpricing oil shock risks at $110–$130/bbl.05 Private credit stress deepens: Blue Owl Credit Income Corp lost 0.86% in February (worst since 2022) and HPS Corporate Lending Fund was down 0.3%, as redemption requests surge and asset managers begin marking down portfolios.06 ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 65-point (-0.76%) open at 8,487 — the AUD hit a two-month low of US68.63¢ — as national cabinet meets at 10am AEDT to sign off on light-touch fuel security measures including work-from-home guidance and free public transport trials.

Thursday’s session was a mirror image of Wednesday’s brief relief rally. Iran formally rejected Washington’s 15-point peace framework, submitted its own counter-conditions, and maintained attacks on Israel — while Trump simultaneously extended the energy-attack pause by another 10 days to April 6 and claimed talks were going “very well.” Markets didn’t believe him. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 6,478, heading for a fifth consecutive weekly loss — its longest losing streak in almost two years. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,408, down 2.4% on the day and confirmed in correction territory, more than 10% below its October 29 record. Oil surged, bonds sold off, gold fell as the dollar surged, and crypto cracked. For the ASX, SPI futures are down 91 points or 1.1% to 8,471 — and that figure doesn’t yet fully reflect the news that Cyclone Narelle has knocked out WA’s three biggest LNG plants overnight.S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,478 — fifth straight weekly loss; Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory at 21,408, down more than 10% from its October 29 record high.Brent crude surged 5.3% to $107.64, WTI +4.2% to $94.15 — Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire proposal while Trump extended the energy-attack pause to April 6.Gold fell 3.2% to $4,363.93 as the dollar strengthened; US 10-year yields rose 9bps to 4.42%; the 7-year Treasury auction drew the weakest demand since June 2025.Meta Platforms dropped 8% on two US liability verdicts; memory stocks (Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk) fell 6%–11% on a Google AI compression algorithm breakthrough.More than $4.6 billion of private credit capital is now trapped behind redemption gates; Apollo and Blue Owl admitted the industry “could have done a better job” explaining liquidity restrictions.ASX SPI futures -91pts (-1.1%) to 8,471; Cyclone Narelle has shut Gorgon, Wheatstone and North West Shelf, pushing global LNG supply disruption above 30% simultaneously with the Iran shock.

Tuesday’s session was defined by a single question: is Trump negotiating or escalating? His claim that Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz flows briefly ignited risk appetite, but the simultaneous Pentagon deployment of 2,000 82nd Airborne troops told a different story. The S&P 500 ended down just 0.4% — a small loss that understates the intraday violence. Oil bounced 4.3% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, wiping out just a fraction of Monday’s 11% collapse. Complicating the picture further, the $1.8 trillion private credit market is showing cracks: Apollo and Ares have both gated redemptions after investors demanded back more than 11% of fund assets in a single quarter. For the ASX, SPI futures are pointing up a modest 0.14% — and February CPI prints today at 11:30am AEDT.Key Takeaways01S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,556, paring a drop of nearly 1% — Nasdaq 100 -0.8%, Dow -0.2% — as mixed war signals kept buyers cautious.02Trump claimed Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz energy flows, but the Pentagon ordered 2,000 82nd Airborne troops to the region — sending contradictory signals to markets.03WTI crude bounced 4.3% to $91.91 and Brent settled above $104 — a partial recovery from Monday’s 9.7% and 11% collapses — as the Strait remained closed and Iran began charging transit fees.04Apollo and Ares have both gated private credit fund redemptions at 5% after investors requested more than 11% — a second systemic risk layer beyond the Middle East conflict.05Barclays raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,650 despite “more fragile” macro; Macquarie’s Wizman warned hawkish central bank responses to supply-side inflation cause “much more financial stress.”06ASX 200 SPI futures +0.14% at 8,398 — a muted open compared to yesterday’s surge — with February CPI the key domestic event today at 11:30am AEDT.

This is a high-stakes, information-dense update. Below is a structured YouTube description designed to capture the urgency of the market situation while maintaining the professional, skeptical tone of the transcript.In this morning’s call, Mark Gardner breaks down the massive disconnect between recent White House claims and the reality on the ground in the Middle East. While markets bounced overnight on news of a potential "deal," our deep-dive verification suggests these claims are currently unsubstantiated.With the April 7 structural deadline fast approaching, the risk of oil hitting the $110–$150 range remains the base case if no verified resolution is reached.The "Peace" Smoke Screen: Why Donald Trump’s claims of an imminent deal are currently unverified by any international or Republican officials.The Iran Contradiction: Iran’s flat denial of negotiations and the reality of the Pentagon’s postponed strikes.Oil & Shipping Data: 24 days into the conflict, we look at the 420 million barrels of cumulative oil not shipped and the true cost ($53B+) of the blockade.Australia’s Fuel Crisis: The alarming report that Australia may only have 24 days of fuel left, and the potential for "odds and evens" rationing and work-from-home mandates.Portfolio Strategy: Why this bounce might be a "hallucination loop" and why copper, lithium, and uranium remain the targets to watch if a real resolution occurs."If you think this is all over, you've probably got rocks in your head. This is a time to be reviewing your portfolio, not just casually flicking through Google news."Even if a peace deal were signed today, the road to "normal" is long:Best Case: 12–16 weeks to return to normal.Base Case: 20–26 weeks.Insurance Reinstatement: 2–4 weeks alone.Stay ahead of the volatility with verified global intelligence. Don't rely on overstated headlines; get the data-driven truth.👉 Get Your First Month Free of Mosaic: mosaic.npcmarkets.com.au👉 Request a Professional Portfolio Review: Email [email protected]#MPCmarkets #OilPrice #Gold #Silver #MarketUpdate #IranConflict #EnergyCrisis #StockMarket2026 #PortfolioStrategyTrump’s "Peace Deal" Claims vs. Reality: The April 7 Oil DeadlineKey Topics Covered:Timing is Everything: The Recovery TimelineTake Action:

Wall Street recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.51% to a six-month low and breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Nasdaq shed 1.88%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.24%, and every major index now carries a “Strong Sell” technical signal on the daily and hourly timeframes. Oil surged 4.55% with Brent above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the Iran war began on 28 February — while gold recorded its worst week since 1983, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce as safe haven flows abandoned the metal in favour of the dollar and US Treasuries. Then came the weekend escalation: President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deadline falls during Monday’s session — and Iran has vowed to retaliate against US and Gulf energy, water, and IT infrastructure if struck.Key Takeaways01The S&P 500 fell 1.51% on Friday to a six-month low, completing its fourth straight weekly decline and breaking below the 200-day moving average — the index is now down roughly 4.5% year-to-date.02Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum over the weekend threatening to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the deadline arrives during Monday’s Asian trading session.03Brent crude closed above $112 a barrel — up more than 50% since the war started — as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with no US-escorted commercial tanker yet making the passage.04Gold recorded its worst week in more than 40 years, falling 10.4% to $4,494 an ounce, as the dollar and US Treasuries displaced it as the primary safe haven amid surging inflation expectations.05Markets have now fully priced out rate cuts for 2026 and are beginning to price modest hike probabilities — the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.38%, its highest level since last summer.06The ASX 200 fell 0.82% on Friday and is down 2.19% over five days, with all technical signals on “Strong Sell” across 1-hour, 1-day, and 1-week timeframes — futures point lower for Monday’s open.

Overnight saw another volatile session dominated by the US–Israel war on Iran. Oil initially surged 10% after Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and damaged Saudi and UAE energy facilities, before easing back as Netanyahu took the podium. Equities finished modestly lower across the board — the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow 0.4%, and MSCI World dropped 0.7% — well off their worst levels. The US dollar fell sharply, with the euro and pound each gaining over 1%, while gold slid 3.5% and Bitcoin retreated. The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all held rates but revised inflation forecasts higher. Markets now face a “triple-witching” options expiry worth $5.7 trillion, adding another layer of potential volatility to an already fragile session.Key Takeaways01Oil swung wildly — up 10% intraday before fading — after Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, wiping out 17% of Qatar’s capacity for potentially 3–5 years.02Netanyahu stated Iran can no longer enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, helping equities pare losses and oil pull back; the S&P 500 closed just 0.3% lower.03The Fed, ECB, and Bank of England all held rates steady but raised inflation forecasts, signalling rate cuts are firmly off the table while the energy shock persists.04Today’s quarterly “triple-witching” expiry of ~$5.7 trillion in options is expected to amplify intraday volatility on Wall Street and ripple through to the ASX.05Micron shares fell ~4% despite record earnings and a near-tripling of revenue, as the chipmaker flagged $25B+ in capex spending for FY2026, ~$5B above prior guidance.06Uber announced a $1.25B investment in Rivian for a robotaxi fleet, and Eli Lilly reported a record weight-loss result from an experimental diabetes drug.

Global markets endured a brutal session overnight as Iran escalated its military campaign across Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude surging near US$110 and triggering a broad risk-off selloff. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its 2026 inflation forecast, with Powell striking a cautious tone on future rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, Treasury yields climbed sharply, the dollar strengthened, and prediction markets signal only a one-in-three chance of a near-term ceasefire — leaving investors bracing for further volatility as the energy crisis deepens.The S&P 500 fell 1.4% — its worst Fed day since 2024 — as approximately 420 of 500 stocks retreated, with the Dow down 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 also off 1.4%.Iran struck Qatar’s energy hub and fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after its South Pars gas field suffered extensive damage, sending Brent crude surging 5.6% to near US$110 in extended trade.The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%–3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, with Powell emphasising he needs to see progress on inflation before any rate cut can proceed.Two-year Treasury yields jumped 10 basis points to 3.77% and 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 4.26% as traders slashed Fed easing bets to just ~15 basis points for 2026.Prediction markets price only a 31–34% chance of a ceasefire by March 31, while Hormuz traffic normalisation by end of April sits at just 25.5% — signalling prolonged energy market disruption.Bitcoin slid 4.9% to US$70,917 and gold fell 3.2% to US$4,845/oz as the stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment weighed on alternative assets.

Strait of Hormuz Interactive Infographic: https://mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au/dashboard/content/the-1970s-oil-shocks-cpi-rates-asset-performanceWall Street posted modest gains on Tuesday as investors attempted to look through the fog of war in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 adding 0.25% to close at 6,716, the Nasdaq up 0.47%, and the Dow barely changed. Markets remain caught between competing forces: oil firmly back above $100 a barrel, a pivotal Federal Reserve decision looming on Wednesday, a postponed US-China summit, and a Reserve Bank of Australia that delivered a second consecutive rate hike — all against the backdrop of an Iran conflict now in its third week with no ceasefire in sight.

Markets rallied to start the week as a sharp retreat in oil prices from the US$102+ highs eased fears of a full-blown energy crisis, even as the US-Israeli war on Iran entered its third week with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight. Risk assets benefited broadly, with equities, bonds, crypto, and travel stocks all advancing, while the dollar weakened. Nvidia’s US$1 trillion AI chip demand forecast added fuel to the tech rebound. However, the relief may prove fragile: Hormuz remains effectively shuttered, private credit is experiencing a wave of redemption caps, and a gauntlet of central bank meetings this week will test whether policymakers view the oil shock as transitory or a catalyst for tighter policy.Key Takeaways01S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,699 and the Nasdaq gained 1.22% as all 11 sectors finished in the green, led by tech and consumer discretionary.02WTI crude fell nearly 10% from its overnight peak to US$93.50 after some tankers cleared the Strait of Hormuz and the IEA signalled additional reserve releases.03Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang doubled his AI chip purchase-order forecast to US$1 trillion through 2027, boosting tech sentiment across the board.04Private credit strain deepened as BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl all capped or restricted fund redemptions amid rising investor withdrawals.05Trump called on NATO allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz but faced refusals from Germany, Spain, and Italy, while threatening to delay his China summit.06The RBA is expected to hike rates today at 2:30pm AEDT, while the US Fed begins its two-day FOMC meeting with markets pricing rates on hold.

The US–Iran conflict dominated global markets for a second consecutive week, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 and triggering a broad repricing of risk assets. The energy shock is rippling across sectors from semiconductors to fertilisers, while stagflation fears are building as US GDP growth was revised sharply lower even as core inflation remains sticky at 3.1%. Central banks face an impossible balancing act this week, with the RBA, Fed, BOJ, ECB and Bank of England all meeting against a backdrop of rising oil prices, slowing growth and elevated uncertainty. Markets are now pricing the next Fed rate cut as far out as mid-2027, and the dollar has surged as the haven of choice, pressuring currencies and risk assets globally.Key Takeaways• Brent crude closed above $100/bbl for the first time since August 2022, surging 11% on the week as Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut.• The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to three weeks, now sitting 5% below its January record, with global stocks down 5.5% since the war began.• US Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.7% annualised growth while core PCE inflation held at 3.1% y/y, fuelling stagflation concerns.• Fed rate-cut expectations have collapsed to just 20bps for 2026, with the next cut now priced for mid-2027, as the dollar hit fresh year-to-date highs.• The IEA committed a record 412 million barrels from emergency reserves, while the US issued a 30-day waiver on sanctioned Russian oil purchases to ease supply pressures.• Five major central bank decisions this week (RBA, Fed, BOJ, ECB, BoE) will be pivotal in shaping the market’s rates and growth outlook amid the energy crisis.

Overnight markets were dominated by a sharp escalation in the Iran war, with Brent crude breaching $100 for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA declared the conflict the largest oil supply disruption ever. US equities sold off broadly, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% and private credit stress compounding the risk-off mood. Bond yields surged globally as traders abandoned 2026 Fed rate cut expectations entirely, and the US dollar strengthened to a two-month high. Friday’s US PCE inflation print and next week’s packed central bank calendar are the next major catalysts.Key Takeaways• Brent crude surged 9.2% to close above $100/bbl – the highest since August 2022 – as the IEA declared the Iran conflict the largest oil supply disruption in history.• Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened to open new fronts if the US-Israeli campaign persists.• The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.8%, with private credit concerns at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank adding to the selloff.• 2026 Fed rate cut expectations have been fully priced out; the US 2-year yield hit its highest since August as global bonds erased this year’s gains.• The AUD was the worst G10 performer (down 1%), and the ASX 200 is down 3.5% over five days with the RBA rate decision looming next week.• Friday’s US PCE inflation data is the key catalyst ahead, with analysts warning a hot print could amplify fears of an energy-driven stagflation shock.

Markets are caught between backward-looking inflation relief and forward-looking energy anxiety. February’s in-line CPI would have been a clear positive in a normal environment, but the Iran war has made it largely irrelevant as oil prices surge past $87 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release failed to cap prices, signalling that only a military de-escalation can sustainably ease the energy crunch. Oracle’s strong AI-driven results provided a rare bright spot, but broader corporate and macro risk remains elevated. The Fed is now boxed in—employment is weakening, but energy-led inflation threatens to reignite—leaving markets to price a single rate cut at best this year. 

Oil markets endured their most volatile session in years as crude crashed more than 10% before partly recovering, driven by conflicting signals from the White House over Strait of Hormuz operations and intelligence reports of Iranian mine-laying activity. US equities lagged a global rally, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.2% while Asian and European markets surged. China's exports boomed at 22% growth in early 2026, dwarfing expectations. The Australian dollar hit a three-year high after the RBA's deputy governor warned of "toxic" inflation risks, with markets now pricing a majority chance of a rate hike next week. Oracle's strong earnings beat after hours offered a bright spot for tech sentiment. All eyes turn to US CPI data on Wednesday for clues on the inflation and rate outlook.Key Takeaways• Oil plunged over 10% in its biggest one-day fall since 2022, with WTI settling near $86.73 amid extreme volatility tied to conflicting White House messaging on Strait of Hormuz operations.• US equities lagged the global rally — the S&P 500 fell 0.2% while South Korean stocks surged 6% and European benchmarks rose up to 3%.• Oracle beat expectations after the bell, with cloud infrastructure revenue up 84% and fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $90 billion, sending shares up ~7% in extended trading.• China's exports surged 22% in the first two months of 2026, with the January–February trade surplus reaching $213 billion, potentially on track to break last year's record.• The Australian dollar hit a three-year high of US71.70¢ after RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's hawkish warning on inflation, with markets now pricing a 62% chance of a March rate hike.• US February CPI due tonight (11:30pm AEDT) is the key data event, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a below-consensus core reading of 0.17% month-on-month.

Global markets endured extreme volatility overnight as the Iran conflict entered its 10th day — oil briefly touching US$120 before crashing back below US$88 — but stocks and bonds staged a dramatic reversal after Trump signalled the war was "very complete," leaving the week's US CPI print as the next major flashpoint.6 Key Takeaways• The S&P 500 recovered from a 1.5% intraday loss to close up 0.8% after Trump told CBS the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much" and the military campaign ahead of its planned timeline.• WTI crude collapsed from above US$119 to below US$86 in a single session — one of the largest intraday swings on record — as de-escalation hopes eased supply-disruption fears.• 10-year US Treasury yields pulled back to ~4.09% after spiking to 4.21%, while Fed rate cut expectations remain firmly anchored to September at the earliest, with some options markets pricing no cuts at all in 2026.• Saudi Arabia preemptively shut multiple offshore oilfields, potentially reducing output by more than 2 million barrels per day, keeping medium-term energy supply risk elevated regardless of near-term diplomacy.• BlackRock became the first major manager to cap redemptions on a private credit perpetual vehicle, triggering an industry-wide debate about liquidity mismatches as US private credit defaults climbed to a record 5.8%.

Global markets endured their worst week in months as the US–Israel–Iran conflict drove oil prices to multi-year highs — with WTI up over 35% in five days — while a shockingly weak February nonfarm payrolls report (-92,000 jobs) compounded stagflation fears. Stocks, bonds and traditional safe havens all fell in tandem, breaking the typical crisis playbook and leaving investors with few places to hide except energy. The ASX is set for a cautious open, with Wednesday's US CPI print and ongoing geopolitical developments the key focus for the week ahead.Key Takeaways• The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly performance since October, falling approximately 2% as the Middle East conflict and a weak jobs report hit sentiment simultaneously.• US WTI crude surged 35.63% over the week — its biggest-ever weekly gain — with Brent rising to US$92.88 per barrel on fears the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted.• February US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs against forecasts for a gain of 58,000, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4% and stoking stagflation concerns.• Stocks and bonds fell together — the opposite of the usual crisis playbook — as oil-driven inflation fears pushed Treasury yields higher, rendering traditional diversification strategies ineffective.• BlackRock's HPS private-credit fund enforced redemption limits on its $26 billion vehicle, amplifying stress across the broader $1.8 trillion private credit market and sending BlackRock shares down 7.7%.• Investors piled into inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and CPI swaps, with one-year inflation swap rates surging to near 2.9%, as markets priced in a sustained energy-driven inflation shock.

MPC Markets Morning Call, the host notes only modest overnight market weakness despite escalating oil prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, praising US indices for their resilience and the software sector for its consistent outperformance; he highlights positive earnings beats from Broadcom and Berkshire Hathaway, spotty retail results, and the death of the “Sasspocalypse” narrative, while promoting an updated interactive 5-pillar AI/software framework, a new enhanced-growth investment in three pairs of software stocks, the Mosaic platform, and tonight’s Bulls vs Bears wrap-up.7 Key TakeawaysUS indices posted only minor weekly losses (S&P 500 down 1 %, Nasdaq down 0.06 %) and recovered overnight despite broader negativity.The software sector remained bright green and resilient no matter what the rest of the market was doing.Broadcom jumped 5 % on strong earnings while Nvidia was flat as semiconductor export restrictions are already priced in.Berkshire Hathaway rose 2.6 % after its new CEO pledged to invest every dollar of his expendable income into the fund.Crude oil surged 24 % this week (80 % over 12 months) on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, creating buying opportunities in lithium and uranium.The “Sasspocalypse” narrative is officially dead after seven straight sessions of Nasdaq outperformance totalling 12.3 %.MPC Markets is offering an enhanced-growth investment in three pairs of software stocks across healthcare, ERP, and cybersecurity, with a dedicated webinar next week on the interactive 5-pillar framework.

AI Threat Heatmap:https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/ai-thre...Software Survivors Webinar Sign Up:https://bit.ly/SaasSurvivorsDaily markets briefing for Thursday 5 March 2026. Finn breaks down a broadly positive overnight session — Nasdaq up 1.29%, S&P 500 up 0.78%, with Amazon, Tesla, and Meta leading the charge. We run through the Software Survivors basket including CRWD up 4%, PANW up 1.5%, and VEEV's surprise after-hours earnings beat of 10.29%. Plus updates on the ERP basket, WiseTech, and what to expect from Pro Medicus on the ASX today.We also cover crude oil's massive 15% five-day run driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Bitcoin's 7% bounce and our dollar-cost averaging strategy down to $45K, and a quick look at commodities including platinum's 4.48% move.Finn also introduces the MPC Software Survivors AI Disruption Heatmap — our proprietary model identifying which tech companies will thrive in the AI era and which will be left behind. Join our upcoming webinar for a full walkthrough and live Q&A.

Geopolitics, wild policy swings, Tariffs, SaaS-pocolypse,Private credit… you would think there is enough to worry about, but investorsfound something new to worry about, inflation. Stocks Finished down 1%, butthat was a marked improvement from the open where they opened down 2.5% and Europeclosed down 4%

Global markets largely ignored escalating Middle East tensions and rising inflation signals, with US indices finishing flat while the ASX benefits from rotation into value, energy, critical minerals and defence amid ongoing geopolitical instability.​US equities were broadly unchanged despite heightened geopolitical risk, with Nvidia bouncing and defence and oil names rallying in a counterintuitive move.​Rising oil and commodity prices plus hotter manufacturing PMIs flag renewed inflation pressure that should in theory weigh on broader equities.​Defence stocks held by MPC (e.g. RTX, BAE, Lockheed) are up around 4–5%, and the view is you cannot be long enough European defence while instability persists.​Gold is up about 2% for the week and pullbacks in silver, copper and platinum are framed as potential opportunities given strong industrial demand and supply gaps.​Rotation from growth into real assets and value continues, favouring the ASX 200 over growth‑heavy markets, while US banks warn of looming pain for equities.​MPC prefers cash plus high‑conviction real assets and defence, avoiding fringe names, and highlights a 12‑month “software survivors” note as a way to ride out volatility.

Middle East escalation and emerging credit stress set up a rough start to the week, with AI leaders wobbling, stagflation signals building, and the ASX skewed towards defensives, hard commodities and energy as geopolitical risk and supply-chain security come back into focus.​Key takeawaysUS and Israeli strikes on Iran have ignited the conflict, pointing to a very weak risk tone for global equities into the new week.​UK private credit stress at a mortgage lender, including alleged double-pledging fraud, has hit confidence in financials, with Barclays flagged as heavily exposed.​The bigger systemic risk now is a potential credit freeze if spreads blow out, which would be a larger drag on the economy than the immediate geopolitical shock.​AI bellwethers like Nvidia and Apple are under pressure as the AI trade loses momentum, even though Nvidia now trades on a forward PE around 14 that could present a buying opportunity.​Near-term winners from the conflict are likely to be oil, energy, defence, aerospace, freight/insurance plays and traditional safe havens such as gold miners and gold-linked ETFs.​Likely losers include airlines, cruiselines, tourism, shipping, UAE‑exposed assets and broader cyclicals as airspace closures, higher risk premia and weaker confidence bite.​Precious metals had a strong week, with gold firm, silver rallying and platinum up sharply, and there is scope for critical minerals and copper to be better bid as markets rethink supply-chain security.​US PPI surprised to the upside across headline and core, reinforcing stagflation concerns as growth softens and adding to the list of headwinds for equities.​The team is staying risk‑off near term, pausing software strategy deployment for a few days as there is no obvious sector leadership to stabilise the tape

Nvidia’s stellar quarter, growing AI backlash, and a historic US military buildup around Iran anchor this MPC Morning Call, as Mark Gardner unpacks why markets are fading AI darlings, where capital is rotating on the heatmap, and how MPC is positioning via its new “software survivors” strategy in an increasingly volatile macro and tech landscape.​Nvidia’s blockbuster result and upbeat guidance were sold into as markets look for excuses to de‑risk crowded AI winners despite strong fundamentals.​Big AI-driven job cuts at Block and WiseTech highlight how productivity gains are arriving via layoffs, not just revenue growth, sharpening scrutiny on the real-world costs of AI.​A surge in AI misuse stories — from alleged CBA mortgage fraud to rogue chatbots and major data theft — is flipping the narrative from AI euphoria to AI risk.​Mark argues this shift will push investors back toward trusted, domain‑expert software and under‑owned tech names, which underpin MPC’s “software survivors” enhanced growth strategy.​Elevated US–Iran tensions, the largest recent US troop build‑up, and Trump’s mixed messaging add another layer of macro risk to already jittery equity markets.​

Nvidia’s strong earnings have reignited the AI trade and helped drive fresh record highs on the ASX, while markets rotate back into tech, commodities and critical metals amid lingering geopolitical risk and evolving views on the AI threat to SaaS incumbents.​Nvidia beat on all key metrics with upbeat guidance, supporting the AI narrative and seeing initial 4% aftermarket strength before consolidating and grinding higher.​The “SaaSpocalypse” blanket selling is being challenged, with MPC’s updated AI threat-to-SaaS model flagging wide moats and defensible niches across ~45 US and ASX names.​Salesforce earnings and guidance disappointed, with concerns that agentic AI will compress margins in its expensive seat-based model, driving a 6–7% aftermarket drop.​The ASX hit a record high yesterday and is poised for another, as local tech rebounds, banks stay firm, and the market increasingly shrugs off negative news, including hotter-than-expected CPI.​US indices (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) rallied on the back of renewed tech strength, while the Nikkei’s bounce is being viewed cautiously given recent exchange closures distorting technicals.​Trump’s latest State of the Union delivered more political theatre than policy, adding little to the macro outlook but keeping tariff and geopolitical rhetoric in focus.​Commodities remain constructive: gold and silver are supported by geopolitical and economic risk, platinum looks attractive with strong upside, and copper stays positive.​Lithium jumped ~4.5% on news Zimbabwe halted exports, likely underpinning a bid in Australian lithium names such as Liontown, PLS and MinRes, and supporting exposure via US-listed fringe metals ETFs.​