MPC Markets Morning Call

Nvidia delivered a blockbuster — $92B in quarterly revenue (+106% Y/Y) and 70% forward growth guidance — adding $440B in market cap and carrying Wall Street higher while every other sector fell. Salesforce surged 23% on its Anthropic "Claudeforce" partnership and CrowdStrike jumped 20%, giving the software ETF its best day since April 2025. But the gap between U.S. and Aussie tech is now 40% wide.Meanwhile, core PCE inflation held at 3.3% — well above target — keeping rate hike talk alive ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. Oil climbed 2% as Iran diplomacy stalled, gold held above $4,600, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000.On the ASX: futures +0.2% to 9,004. Harvey Norman, Dicker Data, Virgin Australia and Cobram Estate report today. Plus — our precious metals strategies are returning 200%+ per annum.Join Mark, Philip, Kai Chen & Jonathan for Bulls vs Bears this afternoon.

Nvidia's Q2 blowout ($96.2B revenue, +106% Y/Y) and a massive 2M GPU deal with AWS couldn't stop the stock slipping ~2% after hours. But the bigger story overnight was the SaaS resurgence — Salesforce +12%, CrowdStrike +12%, Okta +17% — as quality software names with a moat proved the SaaS-pocalypse narrative wrong. July PCE inflation came in hot at 3.7%, keeping the Fed on hold ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. Plus: ASX earnings wrap including WiseTech, Woolworths, and Nine Entertainment, oil falling on Hormuz ceasefire hopes, and record copper at $6.75/lb. Mark and Phil break it all down.This communication is general in nature and does not constitute financial advice.

A quiet overnight session but plenty to unpack. Wall Street edged up as tech bounced ahead of Nvidia's earnings, oil plunged 6% on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, and US bond yields posted their biggest drop in two months. Mark and Phil recap the session, dig into yesterday's ASX earnings — Coles' standout result, Monadelphous' 12% sell-off despite record numbers, and Woodside's pivot back to shareholder value — and look ahead to today's packed calendar: Australian CPI at 11:30, Woolworths and WiseTech earnings, and tonight's blockbuster Nvidia report and US core PCE print. Plus: BHP hits a record high, OpenAI claims its new chip beats Nvidia, and the Target blackface costume controversy.

Stocks mixed overnight — chip selloff drags the Nasdaq while the Dow holds on. US-Canada trade talks collapse with 50% auto tariffs threatened from January 2027, Nvidia posts its longest losing streak since 2022 ahead of Wednesday's earnings, and Texas pauses new data centre approvals. Mark and Phil cover the ASX earnings wrap (Ampol, Adore Beauty, Aussie Broadband), BHP's record high, the commodity and crypto rally (Bitcoin +23% on 5-day, gold eyeing $4,700), and what's ahead this week — RBA minutes today, NVIDIA + CPI Wednesday, Wesfarmers Thursday, and Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday.

Wall Street finished higher Friday but posted weekly losses as bond yields and Iran dominated sentiment. Mark Gardner and Phil Deloccheri cover the seesaw week in equities, Ray Dalio's debt crisis warning and call to sell bonds for gold, Bitcoin's 20% weekly surge, Citadel's unwind of the Situational Awareness book, and what's ahead in a massive week — NVIDIA earnings, Jackson Hole, Australian CPI, and the final wave of ASX reporting season with Woolworths, Wesfarmers, and Qantas. Plus: MPC's AIH webinar tomorrow at 12:30.Key topics: S&P 500 weekly loss, bond yield volatility, Ray Dalio gold & Bitcoin call, NVIDIA earnings preview, Jackson Hole & Fed Chair Warsh, Australian CPI & RBA outlook, ASX reporting season downgrades, Citadel/Situational Awareness unwind.MPC Markets — For professional use only. Not financial advice.https://mpcmarkets.com.auThere you go — YouTube description with timestamps-ready structure, hashtags, and subscribe CTA, plus a shorter Spotify description optimised for that platform's text display. Both pull directly from the podcast transcript content so they match what was actually discussed (including the AIH webinar plug and the Jensen/NVIDIA commentary).

Wall Street fell 0.9% as Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond buyback relief reversed within 24 hours, with 10-year yields pushing above 4.70% and US debt crossing $40 trillion. Oil surged past $93 on Trump's "economic D-Day" threat against Iran, while Walmart's worst comparable sales miss in six years rattled consumer confidence. The ASX faces a softer open with futures down 0.3%.

US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time and Treasury Secretary Bessent responded with his second market intervention this month — doubling long-bond buybacks to calm a brutal sell-off that pushed the 30-year yield to its highest since 2007. Mark and Philip unpack why the US is effectively inflating its way out of trouble, what it means for gold (which surged past $4,500) and Bitcoin (up 6.5%), and whether the Fed's hawkish minutes change anything with rate-hike odds already fading.On the corporate front, Moderna posted its best day in history — up 177% — on a breakthrough cancer vaccine result with Merck. ASX reporting season delivered a 12% pop for Stockland on data centre news, while WiseTech copped a 10% hit after an ACCC search warrant. Today's big names: Goodman Group, Fortescue, Northern Star, and Brambles.Recorded live 06:00 AEST, Thursday 20 August 2026.

The global bond rout finally caught Wall Street's attention — the Nasdaq dropped 1.3% as semis plunged 5%, with the U.S. 30-year yield hitting 5.33% (highest since 2007). Mark and Phil unpack the bond selloff spreading across Japan, Germany, the UK and France, and why Google's new 7%+ kangaroo bond might be a better bet than Treasuries.On the ASX, earnings dominated: CSL stopped the bleeding, BHP lifted its dividend, Judo Bank surged to $1.15, and ProMedicus took investors on a wild $40 ride. Today's slate includes Evolution Mining, Santos, Breville, and Whitehaven Coal.Plus: oil near $92 as the Hormuz standoff drags on, the diesel crack spread above $100/barrel for the first time, and details on the upcoming "Next Phase of AI" webinar and Mark's new Livewire article.Register for the webinar: mpcinvest.co/webinarsWebsite: mpcmarkets.com.auGeneral information only — not financial advice.

Stocks slid overnight as the US-Iran truce expired without a deal — Trump rejected any extension and threatened Oman over Hormuz. Brent crude topped $90, 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007, and Anthropic's revenue run rate surged to $65 billion ahead of its IPO.On the ASX, JB Hi-Fi plunged 10% on weak consumer spending. Today we break down BHP's 57% dividend increase, Hub24's forecast beat, CSL's outlook, Judo Capital's turnaround, and Brookfield's $4.1 billion tilt at Reliance Worldwide. Plus — Google issues a $5 billion kangaroo bond, and why critical minerals look compelling here.AI webinar next Tuesday 12:30pm — register at mpcinvest.co/webinars

Wall Street drifted lower on Friday after retail sales posted their biggest drop in over a year and consumer sentiment slumped — but the S&P 500 still notched a third straight weekly gain as cooling inflation pushed Fed rate hike odds down to 33%. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, Brent crude is up almost 6% for the week, and 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates this season. On the ASX, earnings season shifts into high gear with JB Hi-Fi and BlueScope today, then BHP, CSL and Cochlear later in the week. Plus: why rare earths and critical minerals could be the forgotten thematic of 2026.mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

S&P 500 hits a record close at 7,799 after soft PPI data slashes September rate-hike odds to 34%. Mark and Phil unpack the contradiction of "cooling" inflation at 4.7%, the highest 30-year bond auction since 2001, and why the US dollar might just be "a meme coin." Cisco drops 8% despite unprecedented AI demand, oil snaps a six-day rally on a monster crude build, and Iran insists it controls the Strait — regardless of what Trump says. Plus: ASX earnings highlights including ASX Ltd's surprise 9% jump, the software survivors strategy averaging +50%, and a sneak peek at MPC's Phase 2 AI enablement investment launching in the coming weeks.

July CPI came in line — core at 2.5% y/y, the slowest since March 2021 — pushing September Fed hold odds to 62%. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to within reach of its all-time high as AI infrastructure names dominated: CoreWeave +19% on a $104bn backlog, Super Micro +19% on strong FY27 guidance, Nebius +34% on a 514% jump in AI cloud sales. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate deepened as Iran signalled an "offensive doctrine," oil briefly touched $90, and gold hit a two-month high above $4,400/oz. A 10-year Treasury auction priced at the highest yield since 2007 while the U.S. budget deficit blew out to $1.8 trillion through July. On the ASX, CBA beat but slipped, Seek was crushed, and a heavy earnings day awaits with Telstra, IAG, Origin Energy, Transurban and more.Key topics: July CPI & Fed rate path | CoreWeave, Nebius & AI infrastructure earnings | Strait of Hormuz & Iran's military shift | US budget deficit approaching $40 trillion | ASX earnings: CBA, Seek, Suncorp recap + today's slate | S&P 500 valuations ex-AI gains | Critical minerals thematic preview

Wall Street pulled back overnight as Hormuz tensions persisted and traders held fire ahead of Wednesday's US CPI report. Mark Gardner and Phil Deloughery unpack the overnight session — why breadth stayed positive despite index weakness, Iran's latest Hormuz stance, oil grinding toward $90, and Super Micro's stunning after-hours guidance. On the ASX, they preview today's major earnings slate led by CBA (the world's most expensive bank), recap yesterday's movers including Life360's 20% drop and Helia's buyback-fuelled rally, and discuss Inghams expanding bird flu lockdowns to all states. Plus: why coal stocks are quietly outperforming, the data centre-as-a-service theme powering CoreWeave and potentially Megaport, and what to watch in CPI tonight.

Wall Street ended flat as a 5% oil surge on Iran's Hormuz standoff offset record earnings momentum. Nvidia confirmed a $500B AI infrastructure deal with six Wall Street giants. Intel fell 4% on a $15B stock offering and Jefferies downgraded Apple.Mark Gardner is joined by Phil DeLoughery for a new ASX-focused segment — covering the Westpac mortgage application slump, the chips-to-software rotation, and today's key reporters (Life360, Coronado, Helia, SGH). All eyes on the RBA rate decision at 2:30pm AEST, US CPI Wednesday, and CBA earnings tomorrow.S&P 500: 7,753 (-0.06%) | Brent: $87.67 (+4.9%) | Gold: $4,357 | ASX Futures: 9,178

Iran's back — Houthis launch a large-scale attack on Saudi-backed forces, Iranian negotiators mock Trump's diplomacy, and oil jumps 4%. Eight of eleven S&P sectors lower, Dow off 0.9%. But the after-hours action tells a different story: Atlassian rockets 35% on a huge earnings beat, Cloudflare and Twilio beat and raise, and the SaaSpocalypse trade is unwinding fast. We break down which software names have real moats, what the IGV recovery looks like, and where the opportunities are on the ASX as earnings season kicks off next week. Plus James Hardie +7%, Nick Scali +31% profit, and why we want to see inflation data before going hard on gold.

The Dow hit a fresh record but the Nasdaq slid 0.8% on a rotation out of mega-cap tech — Alphabet fell 4% on Jeff Dean's AI departure, AMD dropped 7%, and SpaceX tumbled 14% ahead of tomorrow's massive lockup expiry. Gold surged 4.2% to a record US$4,248/oz. Mark covers the overnight action, why ASX earnings season stats say patience beats prediction, REA and AMP results, signs of life in critical minerals, and the MPC Income Series fixed coupon notes closing this week. SPI futures point to a flat open at 9,143.Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLonxssa1GsVJ1aUFFE0Nc4IMGmJd3kFaw

FOMO in full flow. The S&P 500 and Dow surged to record highs overnight as AI panic buying and Hormuz deal hopes drove one of the most impressive rallies we've seen — the Nasdaq up nearly 9% in five sessions.Mark breaks down the key moves: Palantir rocketing 30% on "otherworldly" AI demand, Caterpillar's first-ever $20 billion revenue quarter, and what the Situational Awareness hedge fund unwind means for the AI trade. After the bell, SpaceX beat revenue estimates in its first post-IPO quarter but fell on massive AI capex, while AMD slid despite beating on top and bottom lines.Oil got belted again on Hormuz deal hopes after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could come "today or tomorrow." Platinum surged 7%, and uranium and lithium names are starting to look cheap off super low bases.Plus: the ASX earnings calendar is live at mpcinvest.co/ASX-earnings, and Mark walks through MPC's fixed coupon income notes paying 10-13% on blue chip ASX names.Key figures:S&P 500: +1.8% to 7,735 (record) | Dow: +1.7% to 54,086 (record) | Nasdaq: +2.6% | Brent: -5.6% to $79.11 | Gold: +1% to $4,132 | ASX futures: +41 pts to 9,131Links:ASX Earnings Calendar — mpcinvest.co/ASX-earningsIncome Notes — mpcmarkets.com.au/incomePortfolio Review — mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-reviewGeneral commentary only. Not personal financial advice.

Dow hits a record, oil slides 5%, and Trump calls talks Iran's "last chance." Wall Street kicked off August with a broad rally — S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.1% — driven by tech strength, a blockbuster earnings season, and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Amazon topped $3 trillion in market cap, Palantir raised guidance after 93% revenue growth, and Boeing got FAA sign-off on the 737 MAX-7. In FX, Japan spent roughly $100 billion in two days defending the yen alongside the US Treasury. We cover the full overnight wrap and look ahead to SpaceX's first public earnings, JOLTS data, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

Amazon's 15% surge on blockbuster AWS results revived the AI trade on Friday, while Situational Awareness — the hedge fund run by a former OpenAI researcher — blew up on leveraged AI bets and sold to Citadel. The SOX fell 20% in July, its worst month since 2008. Coordinated US–Japan yen intervention saw both countries buying yen for the first time in nearly 30 years. Trump called off the Iran strike over the weekend, sending oil down 6%, but hedge funds remain at their most bullish on WTI since mid-June. This week: SpaceX's first earnings as a public company, a massive share unlock, US payrolls, and the start of ASX reporting season.

Microsoft's 15.5% surge reignited the AI trade overnight, adding ~$450 billion in market cap — the largest single-day gain for any company on record. Chip stocks posted their biggest advance since April 2025, with SOX +8.2%, Micron +17%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 3.4%. After hours, Amazon rallied 9% on a monster AWS beat while Apple fell 5% on China and services misses. We cover US GDP (slowed to 1.5% but domestic demand surging), the yen intervention, 30-year yields at 19-year highs, and the Iran war heating up again with both straits effectively closed. ASX futures point to a strong open. Day ahead: BoJ, China PMIs, Exxon & Chevron earnings. Next week: RBA, SpaceX, and payrolls.After the bell: Amazon +9% on an AWS beat ($42.2B revenue, +37% YoY), but Apple fell 5% on weak China and services numbers — Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO. Meta dropped 8% on concerns about spending across too many competitive fronts.Also covered:US GDP slowed to 1.5% in Q2 but domestic demand surged 3.9%Yen jumped ~2.5% on suspected Japanese intervention30-year Treasury yield hit 5.24% — highest since the mid-2000sIran war: fresh IRGC strikes, both straits effectively closed, diesel creeping back toward $3.50/L in SydneyASX 200 futures +99 points (+1.1%) to 9,010Day ahead: Bank of Japan, China PMIs, Euro zone inflation flash, Exxon & Chevron earnings. Next week: RBA rate decision, SpaceX earnings + largest IPO escrow release in history, Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.Subscribe for daily pre-market updates.

The Fed held rates but three officials dissented for a hike, and 30-year yields surged to 2007 highs as the bond market questions the central bank's inflation commitment. Meta got smashed 8% on a rare EPS miss while Microsoft rallied on a standout Azure cloud beat. The Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory, the SOX chip index posted its worst month in 30 years, and South Korea triggered circuit breakers again. The Iran war reignited overnight with a surprise missile attack, Trump promised retaliation, and oil surged 7-8% with Hormuz still shut. We cover the full earnings wrap including Starbucks, Fortinet, Lam Research, Qualcomm, Teladoc and Carvana, plus the ASX outlook with SPI futures down 51 points ahead of RBA's Sarah Hunter, building approvals and tonight's Bank of England decision.For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Stock Exposure Broadens as AI and Chips Hit | 29 July 2026The great rotation is accelerating. The Dow surged 1% and the S&P 500 rose on strong earnings, but semiconductors got hammered — the SOX index dropped 4.5%, South Korea's KOSPI plunged 11%, and Nvidia's credit default swap hit a record 85bps on circular financing fears worth $750 billion. Oil posted its worst three-day stretch since 2020 before bouncing 5% after hours on fresh Middle East attacks. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Kumamoto — the heart of Japan's chip industry — raising supply chain watch alerts. We break down why margin debt at $1.5 trillion is the real risk nobody's talking about, what to watch in tonight's Fed decision and Microsoft/Meta earnings, and why today's Australian CPI print matters for the RBA. Plus: Boeing's cash flow turnaround, Coca-Cola's World Cup quarter, and the last day to access Buy the Dip.General advice only. Not financial advice. MPC Markets Pty Ltd.

Nvidia fell 5% as $750B+ in AI deals raised circular financing concerns, ASML sank 8.3% on Chinese DUV lithography reports, and oil plunged 8.4% on the US-Iran strike pause. Mark breaks down the semiconductor selloff, China's chip breakthrough with CXMT's explosive IPO, why peak opinion dispersion may signal a turning point, and what's ahead with the RBA decision, FOMC, and megacap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Plus: last call on Buy the Dip closing Thursday.

Stocks Fall Friday, But Open Higher Monday on US/Iran Hopes — MPC Markets Morning Call, 27 July 2026Wall Street's second straight weekly loss met three headwinds at once: Brent crude above $100 on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Alphabet's $205B capex guidance triggering the worst Mag Seven selloff since April 2025, and Trump's new tariffs on 60 economies. But Monday opens with cautious optimism — the US paused airstrikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, with Tehran signalling a reciprocal halt.Mark covers the chip stock carnage (SOX's worst month since June 2022), why Intel fell 8% despite beating earnings, and how Apple's lean-capex strategy is being rewarded while the other hyperscalers burn cash. Plus: 30-year mortgage rates at 11-month highs, European gas up 40% in July, and the pivotal week ahead with the Fed, RBA, BoJ, BoE, and mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all landing mid-week.General advice only. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au for more.

Investors finally woke up to the risks we've been warning about. The Nasdaq fell 2.2% as Alphabet reported its first-ever negative free cash flow and Tesla dropped 14% on weak margins. Brent crude topped $100 after Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait, sending yields to 18-month highs and Fed hike odds surging to 35%. Trump announced new forced-labour tariffs — Australia copping 12.5%. Intel was the lone bright spot, surging 9% after hours on a data centre beat, while Lockheed Martin (+10.5%) and RTX (+7.3%) rallied on raised guidance. We break down what it all means for ASX investors and why this is the moment to be managing your risk, not ignoring it. Plus — tune in to Bulls vs Bears EP129 this afternoon: Hyperscalers or Hyperspenders.

https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDipRisks Stack Up: Google Capex Raises Concerns | 23 July 2026Google raised capex to $205B and reported its first negative free cash flow quarter — shares down 5% after hours. Tesla missed earnings. Oil's up 10% in five days with Brent past $95 after Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Two shipping straits now compromised. Margin lending at records, fund managers low on cash. We break down why portfolio risk management has never been more important — and what to watch as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon report next week.Free portfolio reviews: mpcmarkets.com.au | Buy the Dip: mpcmarkets.com.au

Wall Street staged a solid comeback on Tuesday as dip buyers piled into battered semiconductor shares, lifting the Nasdaq 1.9% and the S&P 500 0.9% to 7,509. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped 5.2% higher in its biggest daily gain in a month, with Micron up 12.2% and AMD up 8.1%, as hedge funds that had slashed long positions scrambled to rebuild ahead of mega-cap earnings. But the rally played out against a darkening geopolitical backdrop: Brent crude topped $91 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened to blockade Saudi Red Sea ports, oil tankers began u-turning, and the US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran. Trump played down the prospect of talks, vowing to hit Iranian nuclear sites. Gold surged to $4,085 an ounce. ASX 200 futures point to a modest gain of 21 points to 8,763.The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20, the Nasdaq added 1.9%, and the Dow gained 0.7% to 52,224.64 as nine of eleven sectors advanced, led by a 2.35% rally in information technology.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.2% — its biggest single-day gain in a month — with Micron up 12.2%, SanDisk up 14.3%, and Western Digital up 12.5% as hedge funds scrambled to rebuild positions ahead of earnings.Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $91.35 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, forcing oil tankers to u-turn in the Red Sea and choking a key workaround for Strait of Hormuz disruptions.The US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran, with Trump playing down the prospect of talks and vowing to hit suspected nuclear sites, while Iran threatened a “powerful strike” in retaliation.3M surged 7.3% after lifting its full-year profit forecast, GM rose nearly 5% on a raised outlook, while Danaher sank 11% after cutting its core revenue growth guidance.China’s Moonshot AI is preparing to raise capital at up to $50 billion ahead of a Hong Kong IPO, after its 2.8 trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model drove daily revenue up sixfold.Key Takeaways010203040506

Stocks down small despite the Iran war widening sharply — tenth straight day of US strikes, three soldiers dead, Houthis threatening a Saudi Red Sea blockade, and Hormuz traffic at a trickle. Brent crude hit $90 before pulling back. AMD jumped on a Microsoft Azure AI deal, China's Moonshot Kimi K3 is now the world's third-ranked AI model, and Michael Burry covered half his Oracle short at 52-week lows. SpaceX set August 4 for its maiden earnings. New UK PM, new Chancellor, gilt yields back above 5%. Big earnings week ahead with Alphabet and Tesla, then Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon next week. The capex question looms large.mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast | mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au

Buy the Dip: https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDipChina's Moonshot AI drops its Kimi K3 — a 2.8 trillion parameter model already beating top US large language models — and markets aren't taking it well. The SOX semiconductor index hit bear market territory (down 21-22% from its high), triple-leveraged semiconductor ETFs have lost more than half their value since June, and FINRA margin debt has surged from $1T to $1.4T in six months. That leverage could snowball.Meanwhile, US-Iran tensions are escalating sharply — two US soldiers killed over the weekend, oil shipping traffic near zero, US reserves at 40-year lows, and Brent crude up ~3% on the open. Not a great cocktail for risk assets.In this episode Mark Gardner covers:– Why the Kimi K3 model matters and what it signals about China closing the AI gap– Leveraged ETF and margin debt warning signs– US-Iran escalation, oil reserves, and the crude price outlook– Gold, silver, lithium, and uranium positioning– Earnings week preview: Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, RTX, Freeport-McMoRan, Eli Lilly– Australian employment data and flash PMIs– The MPC "Buy the Dip" S&P 500 strategy for volatile markets🎧 Subscribe to Bulls vs Bears: mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast📈 Buy the Dip strategy: mpcinvest.co/bythedip#markets #AI #semiconductors #oil #investing #morningcall #mpcmarkets

TSMC posted a 77% profit jump, beat on every line, raised CapEx to $60–64 billion — and the stock fell 2.3%. That tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now. The SOX index cratered 4%, Micron dropped 8%, AMD lost 3%, and the NASDAQ slid 1.5% for the session. Netflix didn't help either, down ~10% after hours on soft Q3 guidance and a move to reduce reporting transparency.Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a fifth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Tehran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea if Washington hits power infrastructure — putting both Middle East oil choke points at risk simultaneously. Oil barely moved. That disconnect won't last.Dallas Fed's Logan called for "modestly higher" rates. Retail sales came in at +0.2%. Jobless claims fell to 208k. The economy's fine. The Fed isn't cutting.Plus: ASX outlook, Coles walking from Greencross, BHP strike action, and what to watch next week when Alphabet, Tesla, and Eli Lilly report.Hosted by Mark Gardner | mpcmarkets.com.au

PPI dropped to 5.5%. The target's 2%. The market's partying like inflation's fixed — it isn't. Fifth day of US strikes on Iran, Hormuz still closed, crude grinding higher. All that inflation relief is about to unwind. Hot money flipping between chips and hyperscalers daily. Margin lending up $400bn with zero downside protection. Copper the real story — Rio doubled earnings growth, BHP reports today. Plus: why the MOU might have been a 60-day executive powers reset, and why a September government shutdown is near-certain.

CPI dropped to 3.5% and stocks bounced, but we think the celebration is premature — it's still well above target and mostly driven by oil prices rolling back. Bank earnings were a mixed bag: Goldman Sachs up 9% on record trading, JP Morgan posted record profit, but Citi fell 5%. We break down why the trading desks are carrying these numbers and what it means for the sector.The bigger story: retail margin lending has ballooned to $1.4 trillion, fund managers have almost no cash to buy a dip, and put volumes are at the floor. We explain why that setup makes us short-term cautious and what we're doing about it for clients — including a structured investment that caps downside while keeping upside exposure through a look-back entry mechanism.Plus: gold and copper bouncing, crude pulling back, TSMC guidance tomorrow, and why the ASX should have a decent day off the back of bank earnings and commodity strength.

Oil's back at $80 and the Iran war is officially back on. Trump reimposed the Hormuz blockade and demanded a 20% toll on all shipping. Chip stocks got hammered after SK Hynix plunged 15% in Seoul and the KOSPI hit another circuit breaker. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, Nasdaq dropped 1.6%.Fed Governor Waller says another hot inflation print is "signal, not noise" — markets now price 50-50 odds of a July hike. US CPI tonight. All five major US banks report today.We cover the Hormuz shipping collapse, copper's quiet grind higher, Europe's jet fuel crunch, gold under pressure, and portfolio positioning at elevated levels.

The US-Iran ceasefire is dead. Four days of strikes, 300 Iranian targets, and Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Trump says it's open — the satellite data says otherwise. Oil up 3%, ASX futures down half a percent.Meta surged 6% on an AI compute upgrade. SK Hynix debuted with the largest-ever foreign IPO on the Nasdaq at $26.5B. Netflix slipped on subscriber engagement concerns.Mark flags the risks stacking up: record margin debt, fund managers with no dry powder, near-record-low put/call skew, and hyperscaler CapEx inflation heading into earnings. None fatal alone — together they're worth watching. Full detail in our Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy episode.Week ahead: US bank earnings (JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi), TSMC, BHP ops review, Netflix, CPI Tuesday. Plus Buy the Dip closing mid next week — details at https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDip

Chip stocks powered Wall Street higher as investors brushed aside U.S.–Iran strikes. S&P 500 +0.8% to 7,541.83, Nasdaq +1.3%. SK Hynix raised $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in U.S. history. Meta up 4.7% on AI chip production plans, Muse Spark 1.1 launch, and cloud business exploration. Crude fell ~2% despite 170 U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after Trump said Iran called wanting a deal. Leverage in equity markets hitting alarming levels. Fed's Warsh named five task forces with serious firepower to overhaul how the central bank operates. Week ahead: CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, big bank earnings kick off with JPMorgan and BofA, TSMC Thursday. Bulls vs Bears podcast out tonight ~6pm.

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at NATO, launching a second day of strikes as markets closed. Oil surged past $80 before settling at $78.55. The S&P dipped 0.3% while chip stocks bounced. Fed minutes showed a split committee on rate hikes under new chair Warsh. We break down the Iran escalation, oil dynamics, Hormuz traffic, Nvidia's China chip deal, the IMF growth downgrade, bond yield spikes, earnings season risks, and why portfolio hedging matters right now.

Samsung's record profit wasn't enough. Chip stocks got hammered across the board, with the Philly Semis down 4.7% and Intel off nearly 10%. The US hit Iran with fresh strikes and revoked its oil sales waiver after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude surged 5%, gold dropped, and bond yields hit a four-week high.But here's the thing — most S&P 500 stocks rose. Money is rotating out of tech, not leaving the market. We break down what that means, plus SpaceX's rough first day on the Nasdaq 100, SK Hynix's monster IPO, the VIX sitting at cycle lows, and what to watch for Wednesday including the Fed minutes.

Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck's AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.

Dow hits record 52,899 but chip stocks crater. June payrolls: 57k vs 115k expected. Rate hike odds slashed. We cover the jobs miss, what it means for the Fed, Meta's $145B AI capex scramble, oil flattening at pre-war levels, gold surging on dollar weakness, and why 87% of the S&P 500's H1 gains came from chips alone. Plus the 1990s Desert Storm parallel for where inflation goes from here. No show Monday (July 4th) — back Tuesday. Catch Bulls vs Bears this afternoon for the full H1 wrap.🔗 mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast📊 Free Mosaic trial: mpcmarkets.com.au/mosaic

Book a Portfolio Review: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-review/Semiconductor stocks were hammered today after reports that OpenAI has dramatically cut inference costs through software optimisations — slashing GPU requirements for large parts of ChatGPT traffic. The SOX Index fell over 6% in its worst session in months, hitting Nvidia, AMD, Intel and chip equipment names hard after one of the strongest quarters on record.In this episode we break down what this means for the AI infrastructure trade, whether hyperscaler capex is at risk of slowing, and how the market is digesting the shift from training-heavy to inference-heavy dynamics. We also cover progress in US-Iran talks in Doha on the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets, which helped ease oil supply concerns.Plus, Fed’s Kevin Warsh struck a dovish tone on inflation risks at ECB Sintra, while fresh ISM data showed pipeline price pressures cooling sharply. We discuss positioning implications across equities, energy, gold and what to watch as US markets head into the July 4th holiday.

Best quarter in six years and chips stole the show. SOX up 88% for the quarter — its best ever. Micron quadrupled. Intel trebled. And the Mag Seven? Down 4% for the year. The companies spending the money are lagging the companies selling them the shovels.Gold's had its worst quarter since 2013, down 24% from the January highs. Iran talks resume in Doha but the "back to normal in two weeks" calls from Wall Street feel detached from reality. Samsung and SK Hynix just pledged $1.3 trillion in new chip investment. Nike beat on both lines and still sold off. JOLTS job openings hit a two-year high and rate hike bets are building.Plus: ASX starts FY27, South32 sells its aluminium business to Alcoa for $8.1bn, and why healthcare might be the rotation play when chip stocks eventually turn. Payrolls land Thursday night with no US market Friday — that Asian open could get spicy.S&P 500: 7,496 (+0.8%) | Nasdaq: 26,213 (+1.5%) | Dow: record 52,317 | SPI: 8,784

The Dow closed at a record 52,182 as Alphabet debuted in the index and tech staged a sharp rebound from last week's semiconductor selloff. Mark Gardner breaks down whether this is genuine buying or end-of-quarter window dressing — plus why the best quarter for equities since COVID might actually be a warning sign.Also covered: the Japanese yen at 40-year lows and what that means for equity markets, the ASX outlook with RBA minutes due today, Collins Foods hitting record revenue, early-stage biotech momentum, and a busy week ahead with non-farm payrolls landing on a pre-holiday Thursday.Key numbers: S&P 500 +1.2% to 7,439 • Nasdaq +2.3% • Dow +0.6% to 52,182 • SOX +87% YTD • Yen 161.94/USD (1986 low) • WTI $70.54 • ASX futures 8,825Weekly podcast: Bulls vs Bears drops every weekend with Mark, Finn, Kai & JT.MPC Markets | General commentary, not financial advice.

The chip index dropped 7.9% last week while Iran broke the ceasefire and struck two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil barely moved. The Fed's Kashkari has swung to a rate hike. And the BIS just warned that sovereign debt, AI overinvestment and leveraged hedge funds are building systemic risk.Mark covers the chip selloff and what it means for hyperscaler margins, why software stocks at 52-week lows could be a generational buy, the healthcare rotation, and what to watch on the ASX this shortened week — including RBA minutes, tax-loss selling season and U.S. payrolls on Thursday.New episodes every weekday before the ASX open. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast for the full written Morning Call.

Micron's blowout AI earnings sent memory stocks surging 16% — but the consequences hit fast. Apple raised prices across MacBooks and iPads by up to $500, Microsoft hiked Xbox pricing, and every Mag Seven name traded lower. The chip boom is feeding the same inflation problem the Fed is already fighting.KPMG now expects two rate hikes by year-end. May core PCE held at 3.4% YoY, GDP was revised sharply to 2.1%, and oil rebounded after an IRGC attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz threatened the fragile US–Iran peace deal. In Australia, employment surprised massively to the upside at +40,300 jobs — ASX futures up 9 points at 8,755.Covered today: Micron's $22bn in locked-in orders and what it means for hyperscaler margins, Apple and Microsoft passing costs through to consumers, the PCE inflation read and Fed hike outlook, the Hormuz incident and oil dynamics, commodities getting belted on the week, Australian employment and RBA minutes preview, plus the week ahead with non-farm payrolls brought forward for Independence Day.Daily pre-market analysis from MPC Markets. Subscribe for updates.

Micron Technology crushed Wall Street expectations overnight, reporting Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (a $6.2 billion beat) with cloud memory up 307% year-on-year and core data centre up 653%. The stock surged ~13% after hours, dragging Nasdaq futures up around 2% and effectively reversing the session's losses. Qualcomm added to the momentum with positive CEO commentary.In today's Morning Call, Mark Gardner covers:— Why Micron's result matters for the broader AI trade and whether the rally can continue from here— Oil hitting its lowest level since before the Iran war as 20 million barrels transit the Strait of Hormuz— The commodity rout across gold, silver, copper and crude — and where the buying opportunities might be— U.S. dollar strength and what's driving the move despite weakening consumer discretionary budgets— Australia's May employment data due today and what it means for the RBA rate path— Trim mean inflation coming in slightly higher than expected — rate hikes still on the agenda?— Healthcare sector green shoots: why names like CSL, Telix and Vive are starting to turn— JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs boosted dividends after passing Fed stress tests— a2 Milk's positive update and Tourism Holdings' fresh takeover approachASX 200 futures pointed ~20 points higher at the close. SPI up around 0.2% to 8,810.Listen to Bulls vs Bears every Friday for a deeper weekly dive — available at mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

MPC Markets Morning Call — 24 June 2026: Global Stocks Get Chip-WreckedThe headline writers got their byline this morning: markets got chip-wrecked. South Korea's KOSPI triggered circuit breakers and suffered its second-worst session in history — down 10% — after a local report claimed SK Hynix is shifting production away from AI memory chips (HBM) and back to cheaper commodity DRAM. Samsung copped the same treatment. Both stocks make up roughly half the index, so it was carnage.The damage spread fast. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 8%, Micron fell 13%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%. But outside the chip stocks? The market was surprisingly resilient. Microsoft was up. IBM gained 5%. Healthcare and consumer staples found buyers. The S&P 500 only fell 1.29% — not the sea of red you'd expect from that kind of Asian session.Mark breaks down why the KOSPI is a structurally volatile market — heavy retail options usage, extreme concentration — and why its moves should be read carefully, not reacted to. He also puts the SOX in perspective: even after last night's 8% fall, it's still up 157% over the past 12 months and 80%+ since April. MPC had already reduced its chip exposure earlier in the week — AMD, TSM, Lam Research, and Palantir were all trimmed or sold.In Australia, CPI for May drops today. The market's expecting headline inflation at 4.3% year-on-year, with the trimmed mean at 0.3% month-on-month. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks. And Micron reports after the US close tonight — that one matters. A bad number and nobody wants to think about what happens to the SOX.SpaceX joins the Russell Index on Friday. Bond yields remain stubborn. The US dollar had one of its better weeks in a long time, which is hammering silver, copper, lithium, and uranium. And KMD Brands is doing a 1-for-25 share consolidation while Sonic Healthcare got a Citi downgrade.In this episode: KOSPI circuit breaker explained · SOX 12-month context · MPC's chip trade trimming · Australia May CPI preview · Micron earnings risk · SpaceX Russell inclusion · AUD under pressure · RBA Deputy Governor Hauser watchListen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au.

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday as a wave of AI talent departures punished Alphabet and a post-IPO hangover accelerated SpaceX's three-day rout — while rotation into cyclicals and chip stocks kept the broader market afloat. Mark Gardner breaks down what moved markets overnight and what Australian investors need to watch today.In this episode:Alphabet –5% — Nobel laureate John Jumper (AlphaFold/DeepMind) leaves for Anthropic; co-Gemini architect Noam Shazeer defects to OpenAI. What back-to-back talent exits signal about Google's AI trajectory.SpaceX –16% to ~$154 — three days of losses, $600B in market cap erased. Is the $135 IPO price the next stop? Mark's view on where to watch for value.AI capex anxiety — Amazon, Meta and Microsoft shed ~$250B in combined market cap overnight. Who's writing the checks vs. who's cashing them.Micron +7% — strategic agreement with Anthropic on AI infrastructure. Super Micro Computer +16%. Getty Images soared on an OpenAI licensing deal.Lam Research — an MPC recommendation, up 5% overnight. What the team is doing with the position.Oil retreats — Brent below $78 as U.S.–Iran peace talks in Switzerland produce a 60-day oil sales waiver. Why the energy sector held firm despite the oil drop — and why Mark is watching Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil.WiseTech (ASX: WTC) — Morningstar's belated bear call, yesterday's 15% drop, and why MPC thinks a long-term buying opportunity may be forming under new CEO Zubin Appoo.USD/JPY at multi-month highs — where's the yen carry trade unwind? Mark's take.Alan Greenspan, 1926–2026 — a tribute to the Fed Chair who navigated irrational exuberance, the tech bubble, and the post-Volcker era.Day ahead — Wednesday's Australian CPI is the big local event. Micron earnings Thursday. What to watch.Key levels: S&P 500 7,475 | Nasdaq 26,166 | Brent $77.84 | Gold $4,192 | USD/JPY 161.60 | ASX SPI +0.2% to 8,831

US cash markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, but global stocks stalled heading into the weekend as US-Iran peace talks opened at Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Mark Gardner breaks down the 14-point memorandum of understanding, what's likely to pass and what isn't, and why crude oil may be the standout risk-reward trade right now — with downside of 5–10% versus upside of 10–25% if negotiations collapse.This episode covers:— US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock: Vance, Araghchi, and the 60-day negotiating window— Why Israel and Lebanon remain the wild card for any lasting deal— S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, US tech futures down 1%, oil up 2.5% as of recording— The case for energy as a portfolio hedge at extended US equity levels — Chevron, oil futures, and single-digit PE names— Fed, ECB, and RBA hawkishness hammering precious metals — gold under pressure— Australian CPI (Wednesday) and employment data (Thursday) — the numbers the RBA is watching— Metcash (MTS) full-year earnings today; BHP Jansen potash cost blowout fallout— Micron earnings Thursday morning — can memory prices justify the Philadelphia Semiconductors rally?— US core PCE price index, final GDP, and Michigan sentiment later in the weekMentioned: Software Survivors 2.0 webinar, Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast (Anthropic and OpenAI deep dive with Kai Chen and Jonathan Takadena)🎧 Subscribe: Spotify | Apple Podcasts | YouTube📧 Contact: mpcmarkets.com.au#MorningCall #USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #CrudeOil #ASX200 #FedRateHike #AustralianCPI #Micron #BHP #EnergyStocks #PortfolioHedge #MPCMarkets

Chip stocks are soaring! Join Finn Judell for a comprehensive market breakdown covering today's biggest moves:Key Topics:🔹 Semiconductor Surge - Intel surges 10.4-10.6% following Apple's strategic chip deal announcement🔹 Record Highs - SOX index hits new record, S&P 500 +1.1%, NASDAQ +1.9%🔹 Geopolitical Shifts - US-Iran peace deal establishes 60-day toll halt on Strait of Hormuz🔹 Federal Reserve - Hawkish commentary as 9 of 18 Fed members pencil in rate hikes🔹 Global Markets - ASX up 3.22%, Nikkei strong, mixed performance in China🔹 Commodity Update - Precious metals under pressure, uranium continues rally, crude down 9.78%🔹 Crypto Markets - Bitcoin struggles to break $70k range despite broader altcoin strength🔹 SaaS Opportunity - Deep dive into the "SaaSpocalypse" and AI's impact on software valuationsQuick Links:Learn more about SaaS valuations in our webinar: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/ai-saas-survivors/Stay sharp in volatile markets — watch for hawkish Fed signals and continued chip sector momentum.#Markets #StockMarket #Investing #Bitcoin #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #TechStocks #SaaS #FederalReserve

The Warsh era at the Federal Reserve began with a decisive hawkish tilt — rates were held at 3.50–3.75% but updated projections show nine of 18 officials expect at least one hike this year, with the median dot shifting from a cut to a hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, and the Dow slipped 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 earlier in the session. Two-year Treasury yields surged 17 basis points to 4.216%, their highest since February 2025, while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%. Gold was hit hard, falling 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the stronger dollar — up 0.9% to 100.47 — weighed on non-yielding assets. Oil held relatively steady, with Brent and WTI settling up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively as Strait of Hormuz reopening expectations offset the risk-off mood. ASX futures fell 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892, with investors bracing for the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank rate decisions today.Key Takeaways01S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,512.15, Nasdaq 100 down 1%, Dow down 1% after briefly touching a record 52,002.94 — sharp late-session selloff on hawkish Fed.02New Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75% but nine of 18 officials now project a hike this year — money markets price 72% chance of a hike by October.03Brent and WTI settled up 1.0% and 0.8% respectively; gold tumbled 1.9% to $4,247.93 as the surging dollar crushed non-yielding assets.04Two-year Treasury yields spiked 17bp to 4.216% — highest since February 2025 — while the 10-year rose 7bp to 4.495%; dollar index up 0.9% to 100.47.05SpaceX fell for the first time post-IPO after a three-day rally of nearly 50%; market cap briefly topped Amazon and Microsoft to become fourth-largest US listed company near $3 trillion.06ASX futures down 61 points (0.7%) to 8,892; AUD under pressure from surging USD; Bank of England, SNB and Norges Bank rate decisions due today.