12th March 2026 - Oil Surges as Hormuz Chokes, CPI Offers Cold Comfort

Markets are caught between backward-looking inflation relief and forward-looking energy anxiety. February’s in-line CPI would have been a clear positive in a normal environment, but the Iran war has made it largely irrelevant as oil prices surge past $87 and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The IEA’s record 400-million-barrel reserve release failed to cap prices, signalling that only a military de-escalation can sustainably ease the energy crunch. Oracle’s strong AI-driven results provided a rare bright spot, but broader corporate and macro risk remains elevated. The Fed is now boxed in—employment is weakening, but energy-led inflation threatens to reignite—leaving markets to price a single rate cut at best this year.