13 March 2026 – Oil Breaches $100 as Trump underestimates the length of Iran Conflict

Overnight markets were dominated by a sharp escalation in the Iran war, with Brent crude breaching $100 for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA declared the conflict the largest oil supply disruption ever. US equities sold off broadly, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% and private credit stress compounding the risk-off mood. Bond yields surged globally as traders abandoned 2026 Fed rate cut expectations entirely, and the US dollar strengthened to a two-month high. Friday’s US PCE inflation print and next week’s packed central bank calendar are the next major catalysts.Key Takeaways• Brent crude surged 9.2% to close above $100/bbl – the highest since August 2022 – as the IEA declared the Iran conflict the largest oil supply disruption in history.• Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened to open new fronts if the US-Israeli campaign persists.• The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.8%, with private credit concerns at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank adding to the selloff.• 2026 Fed rate cut expectations have been fully priced out; the US 2-year yield hit its highest since August as global bonds erased this year’s gains.• The AUD was the worst G10 performer (down 1%), and the ASX 200 is down 3.5% over five days with the RBA rate decision looming next week.• Friday’s US PCE inflation data is the key catalyst ahead, with analysts warning a hot print could amplify fears of an energy-driven stagflation shock.