144: New Year, New Forecast: 2026 Financial Predictions in time for the Lunar New Year

2026 "Predictions": AI Spend, Prediction Markets, Speculation, ETF Flood, Gold, Analysts, and the USDJosh Sheluk and Colin White (Verecan Capital Management) deliver a tongue-in-cheek style 2026 predictions episode, repeatedly stressing the forecasts are not investable. They expect more clarity on whether the hundreds of billions spent building AI infrastructure will pay off, with Colin suggesting over 50% of early AI investment may “disappear” within 18 months as hype fades. They predict prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) will surge, debate whether regulation will quickly constrain them, and highlight how easily bets can be manipulated. They predict speculative assets - unprofitable/no-revenue companies, AI/quantum themes, crypto, meme/alt coins - will be punished as risk appetite shifts. Josh predicts 2026 will set a record for new ETF launches (citing 300+ launched in Canada in 2025) and criticizes the growth of low-quality and leveraged/inverse products. Over a 10-year horizon, Josh predicts infotech and the S&P 500 won’t be the top performers, citing infotech’s large S&P weight and the U.S.’s large share of global market cap. Josh says gold is essentially unpriceable and unpredictable; Colin predicts gold won’t match its 2025 performance. Josh predicts sell-side S&P 500 targets clustered around ~8–10% will be wrong again and argues herding explains the forecasts. They also discuss the U.S. dollar potentially staying weak amid uncertainty, mean reversion, and a likely 2026 debate over Federal Reserve independence and leadership changes. The episode closes with a call for audience predictions, a note on advisor compensation transparency, contact details, and standard disclaimers.Click here to view the episode transcript. 00:00 Introduction to Barenaked Money00:55 Predictions for 2026: AI Capital Expenditures05:40 The Rise of Prediction Markets13:20 Speculative Investments in 202616:58 The ETF Explosion20:02 Long-Term Predictions20:11 Sector Predictions for 202620:48 The Dominance of Infotech23:53 Rare Earths and Commodities24:37 Gold Predictions and Market Psychology28:00 Analysts' Predictions and Market Trends31:08 The Future of the US Dollar37:26 Final Thoughts and Viewer Engagement37:57 Disclaimer and Closing Remarks