19th March: Fed keeps Rates Unchanged as Powell admits "No One Knows" what comes next

Global markets endured a brutal session overnight as Iran escalated its military campaign across Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude surging near US$110 and triggering a broad risk-off selloff. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its 2026 inflation forecast, with Powell striking a cautious tone on future rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, Treasury yields climbed sharply, the dollar strengthened, and prediction markets signal only a one-in-three chance of a near-term ceasefire — leaving investors bracing for further volatility as the energy crisis deepens.The S&P 500 fell 1.4% — its worst Fed day since 2024 — as approximately 420 of 500 stocks retreated, with the Dow down 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 also off 1.4%.Iran struck Qatar’s energy hub and fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after its South Pars gas field suffered extensive damage, sending Brent crude surging 5.6% to near US$110 in extended trade.The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%–3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, with Powell emphasising he needs to see progress on inflation before any rate cut can proceed.Two-year Treasury yields jumped 10 basis points to 3.77% and 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 4.26% as traders slashed Fed easing bets to just ~15 basis points for 2026.Prediction markets price only a 31–34% chance of a ceasefire by March 31, while Hormuz traffic normalisation by end of April sits at just 25.5% — signalling prolonged energy market disruption.Bitcoin slid 4.9% to US$70,917 and gold fell 3.2% to US$4,845/oz as the stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment weighed on alternative assets.