2023 NFL Week 3 - Take the Points or Lay the Points? | WAD 003

Recap of 2023 NFL Week 2: NFL Week 2 was different from what we intended. We are entered into three contests for 5 ATS games per week. Westgate Supercontest (5 ATS per week) Circa Millions (5 ATS per week) Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington state. So, the five we picked were:  Pittsburgh +2.5-covered New England +2.5- didn’t cover Buffalo -8.5- covered Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover Seattle +4.5-covered Well, as you can see, we got 3/2. In hindsight (always 20/20), the Bengals at -3.5 was not a good pick, and Miami is much better than we initially thought. But the crazy thing is… when we went to the Snoqualmie casino, their lines for the contest had not changed from the look-ahead lines. We instantly changed our 5 picks when we saw these lines. This is what we ended up picking for the Snoqualmie casino contest: Chiefs -2.5 -covered Dallas -3 -covered Buffalo -8.5-covered Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover Seattle +4.5-covered For the Snoqualmie casino–we went 4/1. We Survived another week! We took the Buffalo Bills for the Circa Survivor contest, and they won easily. Let’s March Forward to Week 3! At this time–early Thursday morning, we are still quite undecided about the 5 ATS games. We have our leans, but they are too ‘chalky.’ It feels so unclear. These are our leans in general: NY Jets +2.5 (against the New England Patriots) NE losing again in week 3? They would be 0/3 if they lost to the Jets. That is what I thought last week. That NE couldn’t possibly lose a second week in a row at home with legendary coach Bill Belichick. Well, guess what? NE lost to Miami. Perhaps it will be a close matchup, with the Jets losing by 1 or 2. But I am on the side of the Jet with this one. Miami Dolphins -6.5 (against the Denver Broncos) I think we underestimated the Dolphins. Two road games and won handily weeks one and two against the Chargers and Patriots. It’s hard to believe that the Broncos could go 0 and 3, which would almost assurely keep them out of the playoffs. But I do think Miami will win this week. Baltimore Ravens -8 (against the Indianapolis Colts) Lamar Jackson is living up to the 200+ million dollar contract with the Ravens at 2 and 0, plus covering the spreads week one and two. Can they keep it going for week three? Eight points is a lot to lay. Leaning toward the Ravens but undecided. I def could see the Ravens winning but by 8 points?? Our math model shows them winning by 10 but that a hard one to take. Still dwelling on this one.  Seattle Seahawks -6 (against the Carolina Panthers) Six points is quite the hook to take the Seahawls against the Panthers. Do we take the bait? Seahawks have some injuries but they also have some great talent on the team. And Gino Smith played the game of his life last week against Detroit and they won (and covered). Do the Hawks swoop in and take the win? I’m sure they will. But at 6 ats? I think so.  Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (against the Las Vegas Raiders): I said I would avoid the Steelers for the rest of the season bc their offense is not good. But here I stand at week three seriously contemplating taking the Steelers at a +2.5 over the Raiders in Las Vegas. I am going to kick myself later but my math really points to some value here and I love the math. I know there are other factors pushing the Steelers away from this ATS cover. But I could see some value here taking the Steelers at a +2.5. Other Thoughts: Our math model did point to the New Orleans Saints having 2 points of value against the Green Bay Packers. Just haven’t seen them really play well offensively. NO defense is on point. So while I do find value in NO, still can’t pull the trigger on this one.  For Circa Survivor contest: We are leaning toward Jacksonville against the Texans. Or the Kansas City Chiefs against the Bears. I don’t want to get all clever and start saving teams. Jacksonville seems like a safe win. But, it is a division game and with the NFL ANYTHING could happen!